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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Review

Our Canadian dollar executed a swan dive that now has come to a bottom and has started to rally. At the same time we have a pattern that sure looks like a triangle. If this is the case, then the CAD can still soar much higher until another new record bear rally happens. This is the bullish scenario that still may play out, but all that means little if our CAD starts to break to the downside again.

We may need to give the CAD a bit more time to see if higher lows also start to develop. Higher lows at the intraday scale would not really help because the wild swings can slice through any trend line. In this potential triangle the first zigzag is missing so the very top can still stand as my “C” wave top.

It is the August 2017,  3 wave rally that can belong to the diagonal bullish phase. Our present move can still wobble around until the end of the month, so anything can still happen in the short term.

Crude Oil Still Double Topping

This double top is so close to call that I switched back to a potential zigzag bullish phase that can work in a diagonal 5th wave. Gasoline is far from reaching any potential double top,  so we have a good divergence between the two types of commodities. There is not much we can add to the short term picture except that oil can head south right along with the stock market. The commercial traders don’t instill any great urgency to pile into this extended bullish push, as they have been net short for some time already. $65.50 is the price to beat with this very busy June contract. Once mid June rolls around, I will then switch to the December contract which is just as busy as this June contract is.

The December contract is also much lower in price by about $4. It would be far more bullish, if the December contract is higher in price!

The Gold/Oil ratio has not made any real dramatic moves as it has been averaging around the 20.5:1 ratio. This ratio must keep compressing otherwise it has a high probability of starting to spread. A spreading Gold/Oil ratio would then show us that oil is getting cheaper when we use the Troy gold ounce as a measuring tool.

VIX Intraday Crash Update!

The VIX rocket move perfectly reflects the fear that was present in the SP500 and the fear gage is starting to dissipate for now. Of course, if the bigger bearish scenario is alive, then the VIX should find a bottom, followed by another leg up.  This leg up could produce another complete set of 5 waves up, but not before a good correction has taken place.  This may not happen until the VIX settles at the previous bottom of the 4th wave position.  Just below that is a big gap that is still open, so this open gap has a good chance of also getting filled with this trip down. Just under $15 would close the gap which can repel the VIX to soar again.

Higher lows also have to dominate as well to help confirm that the VIX is still in a bull market.


Bitcoin Update Heading Down Again!

Last week Bitcoins made a move down that looks like a zigzag and part of a potential diagonal. I will keep my 4th wave top in Minor degree but, I’m also exploring that the 4th wave can turn into an “A” wave.  Any “B” wave decline from an “A” wave would contain a drop much steeper than anything we see at present.

Sure, I have a very bearish outlook on Bitcoins and all Cryptos but Bitcoins is in a bearish phase from which it may never recover from. I don’t think all those that love Bitcoin don’t even know what a bull market is?   A crash from $20,000 to $6000 in 5-6 weeks is not a bullish phase,  folks!  In order for any asset class to be even close to a bull market, they must consistently display higher lows. Do we see higher lows in the Bitcoin patterns? Not really because Bitcoin “has” to travel well above $20,000 to still be in a bull market.

Some have even declared the Bitcoin correction over, and if it’s over than higher lows show prevail. Since the major top of $20,000 Bitcoin has not created  higher lows that I can see.  They are still pumping out the new ICO’s and we were at 1578 as of this morning. Until that number slows down or even shrinks, then the Bitcoin Mania is still alive.

The total capitalization of the Crypto world is running at $325 billion, and not going anywhere fast. This works out close to about $490 billion that has gone up in smoke! The electrons that are left are buried in a digital graveyard somewhere.

I think Bitcoin will head well below $6000 and then we will run into cost of mining issues. Any analysts should know what happens when the cost of production is much higher than the product you are mining!  Sooner or later all the so called Bitcoin investors  will get tired of Bitcoins not going up and they could also sell out in disgust.

The markets are in turmoil and Bitcoin seems to be doing the same thing.

I may only have the time to look at Bitcoin once a week, because other markets are much more important. The Crypto world is just too small to take down the rest of the world.

E-Mini SP500: Impending Rally Update?

Talk about a great downside breakout, but the angle of this present decline has been very steep.  Some counter rally is due, which could trigger all the “Buy” stops.   Usually the spikes get retraced, if a small 5th wave move has just completed. A fast move back up to the 2720 price level at the 4th wave peak, could also happen.  If this potential wave 2 rally happens, then we need wave 3-4-5 to play out.

That might get us to wave 1 in Minute degree. I will keep some of these updates rather short as when markets change directions, violence can ensue.

The US dollar would also see a rally, if stocks suddenly reversed on some “good”news. If any so called “good” news comes out and stocks hardly move, then any rally will be a fake and then die just as fast. Continuously getting lower highs, is just a bull market in reverse, at least for some of the 5 wave sequences.

Nasdaq Also Having A Bad Hair Day!

The Nasdaq also carried on with its bearish decline which is dominated by the big four monsters called the” FANG” stocks.  FB is the worst and leading the way while FB, and GOOG may have completed their tops. AMZN is one stock that is still hanging on for dear life.

The Nasdaq is also on a different wave count, so out of the 5 I cover I have two wave counts that are dramatically different. In the end it may mean the difference of a few weeks when all indices start to bottom.  I have two downside breakout lines drawn out and each one can provide temporary support, but ultimately will not hold if the bigger bearish picture has taken hold. Total retracement below the 6200 price level would be required, but in a Cycle degree correction any bearish move will crush the markets. The majority will call it a bear market, but from a Cycle degree perspective, it’s just a correction, a “Big” correction.

Any market that has corrected in the past,  has always seen the markets push higher once the bull market resumes.

Ultimately the Nasdaq could fall below the 2011 lows, which is around the 2000 point level.

Mini SP500: Having A Bad Hair Day!

For a brief time investors were indifferent to any rate increase, but they were already bearish well before the announcement on Wednesday. We also have a great looking H&S top which can give us a very ominous sign, that can also work as a brick wall. At very tops in bull markets H&S are not bullish indicators like they were during most of the 2009-2018 bull market. In a bull market the right shoulder would constantly break higher!

For the first part the February bottom must get completely retraced to kill the idea that this rally is not part of the bull market. It is the Mini DJIA that has a different count, but it will also do what all the other indices will do, and that is to head south!  What that means is that the SP500 can bottom a bit later than what the DJIA might do. This all could smooth out as any trend gets more established.

The love affair for big tech stocks is starting to wane, being anti Facebook is going to be the thing to do as privacy issues are a concern. Investors are finding out how those “FANG” stocks can get clawed to death by the market bears.

Gasoline Intraday Update: Running On Empty!

The difference in the wave patterns between gasoline and crude oil charts is substantial. Well below the 2016 low, there is a huge open gap. The largest gap that I have, across all the commodities that I have looked at. This mother of all gaps, will get closed off in the years ahead, which will produce a bearish phase, that very few people will see coming.

Gasoline has created a choppy bullish phase that works better as an inverted zigzag 4th wave rally,  in Intermediate degree.  Our recent rally runs out of steam well before any upside breakout, which could be a wave 2 top in Minor degree.  We also have an inverted Head&Shoulder (H&S) with three support price levels that technically should not hold.

There are sell stops piling up below present prices, which work as landmines that can blow-up and wreck havoc with our wave counts.  Inverted “C” waves can produce some stunning moves, but they can also deposit a spike in the charts and then proceed to crash.

It may take well into April before we see a better picture, but I sure would not remain bullish with this type of pattern.

In both crude oil and gasoline COT numbers, the commercials have net short positions, and this alone can give the gasoline bulls a big headache!

Crude Oil: Break Out, Or Bear Attack?

Once I had a look at the intraday chart I had to bump it up to 3500 bars from my normal 500.  This allows us to go back further, but still keep Intraday settings.  At the $65.36 price level crude oil could be hitting a brick wall, at least in the shorter term. We have a double top and a big obvious Head. In true bull markets, these types of H&S setups can be very bullish,  But if we are ending a bullish phase, then this H&S pattern can be an ominous warning.

It sure looks like a bullish zigzag but I do have choices depending what oil will do next, if it crashes with another zigzag, then a triangle will work, but if any decline looks more like a 5 wave sequence, then an expanded flat could be completed.

We could roll around the $56 price level for a little while, before oil turns and soars again. I think if another zigzag develops heading down, then we should get a big “b” wave counter rally.  I will give crude oil until the $55 price range, but after that the wave counts could get trashed rather quickly.

Silver Daily Chart Update: Starting Another Bullish Phase?

Recently silver has been declining until today as silver woke up! This daily chart is vastly different than gold. Sure, they both do go up, but they are vastly different wave counts. From mid 2016 silver has pattern swings that overlap every wave next to it. To put it bluntly, there are only very small 5 wave sequences which turn into zigzags and then reverse trends.

For the correction down to July 20, 2017, a triangle is my favorite, but a very complex diagonal will also work. The last drop into mid 2017 has also ended with a clean zigzag, which happen in the diagonals as well as triangles.  Once we look carefully from the 2017 bottom, (B Wave) we had two higher lows which is the sign of a bull market or big bullish phase still in progress.

Higher lows are created by crashing flats or zigzags and in a bigger bullish phase zigzags retrace everything from where it started from. There is a big zigzag that has not been completely retraced as silver would have to go above $18.20 to do that. Above $20.80 would be the ultimate prize.

Even at $18.50 silver could head south again, but we will deal with that if and when the time arrives. In the last week I have handled a few of those new 10 ounce silver coins and they are some of the best looking coins I have seen. Silvers recent correction looks like it can contain an expanded flat, so I better start the count as the first stage to zigzag.

In order for that to get confirmed I would need silver to head to $17.80. On this daily chart, we have two major price hurdles to clear before any bullish move is completed. Sure, it all has been slow going, but when a “C” wave gets unleashed, the short players will get burned.

I’m not concerned about any rate increases that may still be coming this year as that is a sign of impending inflation, and it’s when gold and silver is supposed to shine. Sure silver and gold can fluctuate wildly in price, but it has an intrinsic value to it, where it can’t fall to zero like “any” paper  or  cyber tech asset can.

Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

Nothing has changed radically in the last few days as the markets have not made a convincing move just yet. Any Fed announcement could still send the markets soaring. Any diagonal 4th wave bottom could still be developing.  We have a H&S top which does not inspire me to keep a very bullish outlook, but hopefully by the end of the week this mediocre movie will show its true colors.   Many analysts are calling for a correction with many different price projections being forecast.

My question is, “How Big Of A Correction”?  We have hundreds and even thousands of corrections in a bull market so knowing what degree of correction is critical. I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction, which could eventually take the SP500 back down to the 800 price level.  When the SP500 ever gets there, I’m sure all the experts will no longer call it a “correction”, but they will call it a full blown “bear market”.

We can have crashes without bear markets just like the 1987 crash. In 1930 the markets started a bear market that took two years to bottom so any comparable move could also take just a few years.  There is no logic to time when using degree levels as we had a Primary degree correction that took 4 years and a Supercycle correction that only took 3 years! All  my stock market wave counts are based on finding the 5 waves in Cycle degree because without them, we have no hope of of moving into the world of SC degree wave counting.  I spent years, counting the markets in SC degree, but when we were all missing huge bull markets then this raised some serious questions.

I switched to Cycle degree counting in 2013 and I have not found any need to switch again. We can dick around with wave position gymnastics  at the smallest degree level, but they mean nothing if we keep missing bull markets.

This market has to produce lower highs, and lower lows with all rallies having a limited life span. This is how conventional wisdom is called a bear market.


My updates are going to be sporadic this week as I have many other things that need my attention, but I will update when I can.

Crude Oil 2009-2018 Weekly Chart Review

What the majority that called that crude oil was in a bull market didn’t pan out that well. The crash into the 2016 bottom made sure of that. Even now, many call this a bull market, but they are also waiting for a correction. With crude oil we have monthly contracts, but I always look ahead to see where the next busiest month is.

Without a shadow of doubt,  the June 2018 and December 2018 contracts are the two busiest months. This means when the June contract expires I will be going directly into the December 2018 contract month. There was a 25 cent difference between the April and June contracts which is nothing in the bigger scope of things which produced  little change in the Gold/Oil ratio. I will talk more about the Gold/Oil ratio at the bottom of this page.

The fact that I’m showing a Primary degree “B” wave top must make the July, 2008 peak a Cycle degree peak. At the early 2009 bottom, we have a bear market about 7-8  year’s long, plus another two years in our present rally. It would be something if crude oil ended up with a bear market lasting 13 years!  I don’t think we can get that lucky because the big question is if our present rally is a fake.

This could still take a few more years and we need something more solid to go on. During the 3 year, topping process oil created a classic wedge which gave us a clue that a down draft in the price of oil was coming. Flip this wedge in reverse and you would get an explosive rally, like what happened with the VIX.

 Analyzing Chart Patterns: The Wedge

The H&S pattern didn’t disappear or is no longer important, even with a higher right shoulder. The January 2018 peak finished at $65.52, but there is no guarantee it will hold in the short term.

Crude oil crashed along with stocks in 2008, but also recovered with the stock market in early 2009. What has happened once can happen again, so I sure don’t want to rule anything out.

Any 4th wave bullish phase should technically get completely retraced, which would be lower than $28 on a weekly crude oil chart.

America has become a giant oil exporting nation so they can pump as much as other countries are willing to buy. The supply may not be an issue, but demand could dry up and blow away. This is speculation based on a possible 4th wave scenario in Intermediate degree.

Why U.S. Oil Exports Are Surging | OilPrice.com

HDGE Review: Has The Bull Market Arrived?


This HDGE ETF travels inversely to the stock markets. Due to its short history I’m not sure which index it follows the best. Either the DOW or SP500 will work.  We really don’t need all the history if the 2015 4th wave is at the correct position. If the stock bull market is to continue like once they all said it would, then the original HDGE decline would have to go much, much lower.

Until it hits $5! At $5, many ETFs can create an inverse stock split, of 4:1. At $8, and a 4:1 inverse split, this HDGE would then be $32.

Many ETFs can pivot around the even Fibonacci numbers like it is now doing at $8. When I count up by jumps of 1.618, we get $13, $21, and $34! I love the Fibonacci whole numbers as I use them to calculate time in years, between tops and bottoms and the lengths of many bullish moves.  Make the jump from 8 to $13 which gets you to the top of my 4th wave in Intermediate degree. (Red)

When HDGE gets close to that, I’m sure we are going to run into a serious correction, or some resistance. Then when HDGE starts getting close to the $21-$22 price level more resistance should be expected. The ultimate prize would be for HDGE to hit $34 in the next 2-3 years.

The lift off we have so far from the $7.43 bottom looked like it contained a perfect impulse pattern, but it was the correction that gives us a clue to what’s next.  This correction was “not” a zigzag but it counts out very well as an expanded flat. (3-3-5)

To many wave analysts think an expanded flat in the wave 2 position should not happen, but they do. Even if they just happen once, then I look for them all the time and allow flats or expanded flats in any wave 2 position, in any degree.

From 1970-1974 my wave 1-2 in Primary degree was also an expanded flat correction.  (3-3-5) No, it was not a triangle, like all the SC and GSC degree wave counters are still trying to tell us.

What it should mean is that the next move up could be very strong.

Tracking HDGE also helps us to judge when the big stock bear is finished. I will post HDGE a bit more often, but I will not post every micro mini, turn. All the detailed wave counting that we can dream up will mean nothing, if we keep missing bull markets that could gain over 400%.

I haven’t tracked the Gold/HDGE ratio that much, but I have enough to give us some information how skewed this ETF has become. As HDGE declined you could buy more and more shares with one Troy ounce of gold. Today we hit a 165:1 ratio. In 2011 which was the start of the stock mania phase, this ratio was at 63:1. We may not get close to that again, but we do have a target we can use for now.

Gold Intraday Bullish Reversal?

I am looking at a potential move that might resemble a 5 wave run in a “C” wave bull market. We already have a higher low this month, which is the conventional description of a bull market. Gold is still creating higher lows since late 2015 when the bullish phase began.   I mentioned it many times that gold should still completely retrace the $1375 price level, which it had tried to do many times but has failed each time.

As long as the US dollar has not finished its biggest bearish move, then gold will see upside pressure regardless of what the expert opinions are at any given time.  We can’t rely on supply and demand scenarios as there is no end to the supply when we see pictures of the gold in the vaults.

Any rate increase may stun the gold bulls temporarily, but back in the 70’s rates were soaring right along with gold so it can happen again. The rate increases scheduled don’t even amount to a bee sting compared to what happened in the 70’s.

I think we will see the end to any rate increases by watching the 30-day Fed fund rate after it has flattened for a year or so. It may not even last that long as the first 1 to 2 pauses might be enough.

The gold bullish cycle so far has been very choppy, which do not fit into the perfect world of an impulse.

Mini-SP500 Intraday Gyrations Upate

At this time it looks like I will have to run different wave counts in about 3 out of 5 indices. The wave counts are dramatically different with the tradeable contracts than from the indexes, which only move during the day. Futures that are traded have a wild and wooly look and feel that can distort the wave counts.  It could all smooth out a bit, which I have noticed in other future contacts as well.

This Mini SP500 contract did not travel to a new record high which I can’t use as a truncated 5th wave, but it must belong to the bigger bearish phase already.  There could be some real violent moves in both directions later this week as any Fed announcement can send markets into a dizzy spin.  I will not be happy until this market takes out all the lows of last month, but it could rest just before any downside breakout may occur.

Wave 2 in Minor degree may be finished and I’m sure I don’t need to draw out the rest of the move. By weeks end things could be different if diagonal wave structures are involved. It’s still too early to tell if a big flat or a big zigzag will dominate, but the big triangle can still be ignored at this time. We don’t have enough time before solar cycle #25 starts, for any triangle to completely play out.

I’m bearish no matter what we get, even though I may turn bullish at some counter rallies.

Nasdaq Intraday Record High Now Visable In The Rear View Mirror!

Finally the markets have started to succumb to bearish forces again. It started last week and now looks to carry on with its bearish trend until at least after the Fed announcement this week. The white elephants in the Nasdaq, like Facebook, also managed to execute a swan dive this morning.

I will also be forced to move my Cycle degree peak over, but I will wait on that until this decline starts to pick up more steam.  Those who have never done any historical stock market research will repeat all the mistakes of the past, thinking that markets can’t crash when the fundamental analysts paint us a rosy picture.  Hate to break it to you, but markets always end when the majority think it can’t. When those two words like “New Era” get regurgitated by all the parrots in the world, then the big party is over.

Back at the peak in 2000, the new era mantra was also repeated many times, so it’s nothing I haven’t heard or read about before.  In Britain and the USA it was called the “Canal Age”, until the railroads came along and produced the new age of train travel. When the majority call it a great new age, then it is usually over and a market crash ensues with recessions or even depressions. In 2007 they had no clue that a recession was coming, but it sure arrived in a hurry.

Then, under the worst fundamental conditions, like in late 2008 the market turned by early March 2009 and then soared for another full 8 or so years.

The other indices have to follow and until they make a clear effort to join the bearish party, I use caution just incase we have another fake correction.

Platinum Monthly Chart: More Downside To Come?

It’s been a long time since I looked at platinum. When we go back to the 1980 peak we see what followed what looks like 5 waves down. Ok, but it can count as a flat if we see a single zigzag first, then “B” wave rally and a choppy 5 wave decline. (3-3-5)  I saw the pattern during the 90’s as a running zigzag. I’m not inventing a new pattern, but zigzags do have a habit of never being even.

Either way, that bearish phase ended in late 1998 before another rocket move soaring to the $2100 price level. From early 1985 platinum can also work as a big zigzag terminating in late 2007, which is a lot more common in diagonal wave structures.  Then the big crash of 2008 sent platinum south, stopping hard at the $800 price level again in late 2015.

This $800 price level is important because platinum has pivoted around this number 4 times already, since the 1980 peak.  If platinum gets close to the $800 again, then we are faced with a big downside breakout situation. This may not stop until platinum hits the $550-$600 price range.

Since the 1980’s peak platinum resistance produced major reversals at the $550-$600 price range, so this price has significant meaning.

At the late 2007 peak, I show a Cycle degree wave 3 top, which I used to have back at the 1980 platinum peak. I spent years with wave 3 in Cycle degree at the 1980’s peak, but this would move us into SC degree wave counts to soon. I refuse to play the big wave count game anymore, due to the bull markets they have missed.

It takes an incredible amount of time to get a wave count refined to a point we can “see” bull markets coming, but todays wave traders only use the EWP as short term trade setups!

US Dollar Intraday Gyrations Update

The US dollar had made the small move I was expecting, but I don’t think it’s over just yet. The US dollar could plunge back down to the 88.800 price level, then make another move to the upside which could be the end of a wave two rally in Minor degree. This  could still take all of March to finish off, but I’m sure the Fed announcement this coming week, will create some wild moves in both directions.

The speculators are very close to being even with their positions, so they will have to shift to a major net short position when the US dollar hits another major bottom.

The commercials made all the right moves last week and they are still in a net short position by about a 3:1 ratio. Once this corrective counter rally has played out, then this should also have a positive effect on gold.

Any Fed policy will not push the US dollar into a real bull market, no matter how many analysts may think that it can happen. This entire US dollar decline can take until the end of solar cycle #24, which is still a few years away. Every major science site that tracks the sun will be recording and reporting this event, so there will be no excuses that we didn’t see solar cycle #25 coming!

Canadian Dollar Futures Daily Chart Update

At this point our Canadian dollar is still sinking that some say is the end of the Candaina dollar bull market. Hate to break the bad news folks, but the Canadian dollar bull market ended about 10 years ago. What we are in is the impending end of our Canadian dollar bear market. This end is still a few years away as we still would have wave 4-5 in Minute degree  to work through. We know what a pain in the ass some of these last waves can be, as the markets will always throw something at us to keep us scratching our heads.

Commercials are net short and that situation would also have to shift to a point when commercials are net long again by a wide margin.

Right now our CAD could be getting close to being a single flat, so until we break the May 2017 lows, our CAD can still reverse. So far this would be the least likely scenario, but a another counter rally should happen by the end of next week.  There are many turning points following the month to month pattern, but that is not written in stone.

So far the rally peak in 2017 looks like an inverted zigzag did play out, which means 100% of the entire bullish move that started in 2016 should get retraced. The CAD is going down along with the solar cycle #24 which means that solar cycle #25  pulling the CAD down. Any  end to the big CAD bear market, could take until solar cycle #24 has ended.

30-Day Fed Fund Rate Review

I believe that the 30-day fed fund rate will determine any potential rate increases to come, and that the rates should go flat again in the future. We had flat bottoms and flat tops each time before rates reversed. Any flat bottom which represents a rate freeze for about a year or so preceded any  chart rise. A rise in the charts represents that lower rates are coming. This Wednesday another announcement is due so this is when this chart will move.

The Euro Dollar looks just like this chart except the pattern is more free flowing.  The commercial traders positions are net long/short neutral, with the 30-day rates but that can change fairly quickly.

The chart is about as interesting as watching paint dry so until a flat bottom shows up, rates could keep going up.

Russell 2000 Daily Chart Review

Is the bull market “choppy enough” for you? We are looking at a 5th wave run, which is one of the main locations that diagonal wave structures seemed to pop out of nowhere.  When we run into a diagonal bullish phase, then it should be a big clue that we are also in a 5th wave. Any location that contains a 5th wave, we can find diagonals.

In the EWP book they are called ending diagonals, and once they are played out the 5th wave will come to an end. In the real world these diagonal 5th waves can and travel at speeds and heights unimaginable, but they happen. They happen more frequently than we think, as they can go vertical as well. From my perspective, diagonal waves give us a big clue, that we are somewhere in a 5th wave.

In this case we have to go back to the 2015 bearish phase, which was a 4th wave correction.

The Russell 2000 is just short of breaking to a new record, but we must see if this gets confirmed next week. I think there is a Fed rate announcement coming up next week, so all hell could break loose in the short term.

It’s a new moon and St Patrick’s day this Saturday, so we will see lots of “green”. That’s better than seeing “red”,  so enjoy your St Patrick’s day because stocks could be changing color this month.

I only used the bottom trend line, and each touching point can be a temporary resting spot in a bigger bearish phase. More and more experts are coming up with bigger bearish forecasts, one which says a 40% correction is on the way.  What happens if this impending correction turns into a 70-80% correction?

When any real bottom comes then the Russell 2000 will be important,  as it shows a much bigger bottom base at the 350-300 price level. It’s not going to go to zero folks, no matter how bearish, the crowd will be at that time.

When we get closer to the start of solar cycle #25 then watch out, as the up cycle of any solar cycle can be an extremely effective “Bear Market Terminator”.

Longer term, I don’t see rates exploding in a fit of madness because when the recession comes, they will be forced to lower rates again.

The 30-day Fed fund rate charts will give us a clue when the fed starts to pause.  If the fed stays “flat” for a year or so, then this is also a potential clue that rates have gone far enough.

Bitcoin Update: Start Of The April Contract

The March Bitcoin Cobe futures contract has stopped working this week, so we must move into the next month of April, 2018.  I can’t go back further than the wave 3 bottom for now, but that may change early next month.  Volume will pickup, but it is so slow that I can’t see anything in the May contract month.  Bitcoin has been hammering up to the $12,000 price level and has now shown its true colors by resuming its bearish trend.

From a potential Minor degree 4th wave top, I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2 count.  This would give us an extended wave 5 decline, but with wave three of the 5th wave would be extended.  From this point forward only the wave 3-4s should play out which would be about 4 more sets.  Each wave 3-4 counter rally will become bigger in degree levels as we progress down.  Sure, this may not work, but it is always the first thing that must get eliminated, forcing us to look for an alternate wave count.

There is no chance for Bitcoin to magically transform back into a bull market, no matter how long you keep Bitcoins in your electronic wallet.  Make no mistake, Bitcoins are considered commodities and the only difference is Bitcoin Miners mine electrons, invisible to the naked eye. When Bitcoins keep crashing in price, then they will approach the cost of mining. I use the $4000 price level for that,  after which we could see Bitcoin miners disappear and go out of business.

Sounds familiar?  It happens all the time in the real metals world, as they all need cheap power to keep running. Bitcoin investors can only bet on one direction, which the Forex crowd has been able to do  since the beginning.

Lack of real short players keeps the Bitcoin patterns rather subdued, with not too many wild reversals. Of course that could start to change.

Right now we have another H&S pattern forming which could be the setup for another downside breakout. Eventually the $6000 price level will also get retraced.

Total Cryptocurrencey capital base is about $328 billion US dollars, down dramatically since the hay days when Cryptos hit $813 billion.

$485 billion US dollars have gone up in smoke in little over 2 months. The pace that new ICOs are coming out is about 11 per week, which should slow down if no new suckers will buy into this Bitcoin madness. The 24 hour Bitcoin volume has also been crushed, so all this does not bode well for Bitcoins prices to soar again.

Even after any 5 wave decline has finished, any Bitcoin charts can start to flat-line never to rise again.

US Dollar Weekly Chart Review

This year the US dollar is having problems getting past this 88-89 price level, which the bottom trend line highlights. The herd of conventional analysts is just starting to suspect that the US dollar is in a bear market. This is far too late, to be any use to the futures traders that know how to bet up or down. (Take long or short positions)

Conventional indicators in the highly leveraged commodities world doesn’t work, because if they did the majority would always be the winners. The fact is the majority can never win because it is mathematically impossible to do so.

The US dollar bull market that started in late 2008 displayed a choppy bull market that happens in false or bear market rallies. In a bear market rally, the market eventually must retrace its “entire” bullish move, which would not be completed until the US dollar travels below the 70 price level. This  would take a few more years or until solar cycle #25 starts up.

I want to see the US dollar slice through that bottom trend line, as we still don’t have a great looking spike. The US dollar has already entered the price territory of the 2009 and 2010 peaks, which effectively  kills any idea that a perfect impulse was in progress.

Still there is no real bottom that can offer price support to the US dollar  at this time. Every time analysts are looking for support, you have to ask, “support for what”?  Support for a huge US dollar bull market to suddenly materialize?  From my perspective, some key contrarian indicators have to be in place before the US dollar suddenly leaps into a bull market. None of those conditions exist just yet so until they do, the US dollar is doomed to decline even more.

It was a real challenge to call the 2008 bottom as we were far too early, but finally the US dollar started to soar, and our CAD and  Euro started to implode. When we constantly read about the bearish US dollar, chances are good that a strong reversal is being set-up.

Short term we could still see some gyrations, but long term the US dollar is still doomed to go lower.

SP500 Midcap Intraday Update

This SP500 Micap chart has also stopped well short of making a new record high. What I have looks like another zigzag rally, but I can change the “A” wave in Minute degree, so we end up with an expanded pattern instead.  We have two strong bottoms that eventually must get retraced to help to confirm that the bigger bearish cycle is in play.  There is no guarantee that we will get a flat in this Cycle degree correction, as a big zigzag could be another option as well. If a Cycle degree zigzag is the case, then the wave 1 in Minor degree can become wave 1 in Intermediate degree.

One good thing is that we have a single peak to count from, as no double top even came close. With the Russell 2000 it’s not that obvious, as it is very close to a double top. At this time it can also work as an inverted wave 2, but one little spike to a new record high will instantly trash it’s wave count.

Mini SP500 Intraday Update: Tired Of Playing the Nasdaq Game?

These futures contracts are far more violent than the SP500 index  charts that I have posted. It’s like they come from two different planets. In February we have two major bottoms, but when we switch to line type settings,  that wave 1 in Minor degree is much longer.

What must be obvious is that we have another lower high since the January peak and if we draw a line across this first lower high, we get a H&S pattern rolling over as well. Looking for lower highs too early in the game doesn’t always work, especially when we are dealing with a 4th wave.

As I post the markets are still heading down so my wave counts may have a longer life span at this time.

The Gold/SP500 ratio hit 2.0:1 which means it takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the Mini Sp500.  I have many readings at this ratio, which tells me the markets are smashing up against a ratio brick wall. A cheap ratio would get closer to .75:1, so this ratio would have a long way to compress before we even get close when this market becomes oversold again.

I may switch to any ESY00 or even the SPY00 charts  more often to get a different perspective.

High Flying Nasdaq Getting Too Close To The Sun!

At the rate that this Nasdaq keeps pushing higher, Investors should be careful not to get their wings singed. Yesterday the Nasdaq peaked at about 7210 before it started into another decline. I show two trend lines, but they mean little as the markets spill well outside the top trend line. Due to the choppy pattern most of these patterns do not form between pretty trend lines, but they act more like zigzags.

I believe the run that started from the middle of last month is all part of a bigger diagonal 5th wave move, but we need more evidence that a bigger decline is coming.  The earliest sign would be when the bottom trend line gets sliced in two.  After that we  have two price bottoms that need to get completely retraced.  The February 9th bottom of 6200 ended with a set of diagonal 5 waves. We may have to wait until the Nasdaq falls to the February bottom, before we get all excited about the beginnings of a major bear market.

The longer this all takes to start, the steeper the angle of the decline should happen. Last month the solar cycle sunspot activity increased which also buys us more time before any early bottom solar cycle bottom.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio managed to squeeze out another new record, smashing up against the 5:1 barrier 4-5 times this year already.

This acts like a brick wall on the bigger scope of things, and it will do the same when we get to the next major bottom. Just like the Nasdaq gave us a different 2000-2002 crash, this time I’m sure that the Nasdaq is going to give the wave counting crowd, surprises never encountered before. By charging too a new record high, the Nasdaq is now walking to a different drummer, again.

This forces me to  start looking for a new set of 5 declining waves in the coming few weeks or so.

The SP500 and the Dow 30 are still well behind the Nasdaq, and Trump would have to pull off an amazing feat, to get those two to catch up to the Nasdaq.

HMMJ Marijuana ETF Update.


This marijuana related ETF is what I use to track the hemp related companies. Since its vertical move HMMJ has been in what looks like a correction. Sure, there may be more upside, but over all the marijuana market has been swamped with growers getting into the action. This has produced a legal marijuana glut in Canada and the wholesale price of hemp has been crashing for two years already. The best days are already gone even before they seemed to get going.

There is not much difference between the hemp industry in Canada and Bitcoins. We had our “Hemp Mania” blow its top earlier this year not that far apart from the Bitcoin Mania. The days of easy money are over, and it will take a considerable amount of time doing due diligence to figure out which companies still “may” soar!  I don’t have the time to do all that work, as I have my hands full with maintaining all my wave counts.

I kept the degrees small and started with a Minuette degree 3 wave zigzag, followed by two sets of 1-2 counts. The second 1-2 wave is two degrees lower, but I use that as if a wave 3 extension is coming. If this ETF deviates from its internal impulse structure, then this wave count will get instantly thrown out.

We may be in a triangle, but then we need three more zigzags to confirm it. In this potential triangle the second zigzag would also have to go much higher and add onto the “C” wave. At times there is very little difference between an “ABC” count and a “1,2,3” count, so we have to see if this scenario plays out.

US Dollar: Resuming it’s Bearish Trend?

The US dollar has been in a bearish mood lately, but it can still create another corrective pattern as well. 89 is just one rounded Fibonacci  numbers I use, and the US dollar has turned around that number before. Commercial traders are still net short, so chances of jumping into a huge USD bullish phase are low on my list. Wild counter rallies do happen and they can’t always be spotted before they happen.

Any decline in the US dollar for “any” fundamental reasoning, will help keep the bullish pressure on gold.  At least until the entire US dollar bearish move has completed. There are no contrarian indicators showing up,  that say we are at the bottom of a US dollar bear market.  We might get another “C” wave attack, that can force another leg up with the US dollar, but then I would bet that the commercial traders positions would also have shifted dramatically.

In the last few days, the declining  pattern has been a diagonal pattern, which could run out of steam in the short term.

This could be very slow going as well, so I will not report every little wave made with the US dollar cash index. Futures are leveraged asset classes which produce very wild moves. Futures are played in both directions creating these wild swings, which Bitcoin traders can’t really do. The lack of  short players in Bitcoin reduces the wild moves, otherwise the Bitcoin waves would display insane moves in both directions.

Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Still Lagging Behind

The DJIA is one index that is still running well behind the Nasdaq and others. The Nasdaq is the only index that has traveled to new record highs, but others are catching up, or getting close. I also switched to a line type chart, but this also changes any wave counts, I may be working at the time. If the DJIA is still going to play catch up, then it still needs more time to accomplish this task.

One burst of energy could push the DJIA to my top trend line, which would definitely force another wave count review.  I have some very questionable short term moves, that I don’t like, but those are the things that eventually need to be resolved.

The three trend line angles, is based on the bottom line, and the middle line helps to outline one degree lower wave patterns. We have the new moon coming on Saturday, and many times moves correspond with expiration dates closest to the 10th and 21st of each month.

Until this market displays a sustained decline like Bitcoin has been doing, then the end of the bull market is questionable in the short term.

President Trump is doing everything in his power to keep this bull market going, but sometimes bull markets end out of pure exhaustion, with nobody left to get in. Remember the idiots that love to buy high have to find other suckers to sell to,  and one day those greater fools will not show up. It must be a new bunch that has no clue what “Technical Analysis” or “TA” even is. The concept of contrarian thinking is completely absent in todays world, but from an EWP perspective, we must never forget any contrarian thinking.

When we do forget, we don’t see it “coming”so we miss all the market crashes and impending bull markets. Investors that think that bear market’s like 2001 and 2008, should never happen, are living in a delusional dream world, or they just arrived from a different planet. Of course, if a new group of aliens is buying into this market, then they also did not listen to or record earth’s market history.

The Gold/DJIA ratio spread increased a bit to 19.44:1 which makes it more expensive when compared to gold. About 21:1 is my top ratio record, which will be hard to beat.

No market stays permanently high, as they do wear out the participants if players are no longer make any gains. It’s been about 6-7 weeks already where the crowd that got in, in January, have made no gains or just stayed even.

Crude Oil Intraday Update

I carried on from my last wave count and so far I can still make a bearish scenario work.  As I post, crude oil was going up so any alternate move could slice through the top trend line  The Gold/Oil ratio has hardly moved and is averaging around 21.5:1. Commercial traders are also net short so they don’t see a real bright bullish future for WTI crude oil. The USA is going to join the world club in being in the top three oil exporters, right along with Russia and Saudi Arabia.

I’m bearish on oil, but I’m looking for the pattern that shows the best 3 wave corrective crash before I turn super bullish on oil gain. Once this oil chart starts to do too much of sideways dance, then another better fitting wave count should be found.

This is always harder than it sounds, but constantly looks at the bigger picture as well. The top trend line shows that we have lower highs  still developing. At this intraday scale, this type of a trend line can get trashed very quickly.