The amount of time the VIX has been correcting just about puts it into an Intermediate degree position. It’s still a VIX bear trap any which way you want to look at it, as it is only a matter of time before the fear gauge starts to crank up again. The Death Cross finished about a month ago but the Golden Cross will still happen. The commercials are net long while those hedge funds or speculators are betting with net short positions. One group is always wrong and it sure isn’t the commercials. Combine that with a wedge and you have a deadly chance of the VIX exploding to new record highs by the end of this year.
Fear is going to come back regardless, after which the commercials will be turn net short again. Deflation is the main threat as we come of the most inflated asset world in history. Another quick flash to the downside can still happen, so we have to be aware of that.