This year the US dollar is having problems getting past this 88-89 price level, which the bottom trend line highlights. The herd of conventional analysts is just starting to suspect that the US dollar is in a bear market. This is far too late, to be any use to the futures traders that know how to bet up or down. (Take long or short positions)
Conventional indicators in the highly leveraged commodities world doesn’t work, because if they did the majority would always be the winners. The fact is the majority can never win because it is mathematically impossible to do so.
The US dollar bull market that started in late 2008 displayed a choppy bull market that happens in false or bear market rallies. In a bear market rally, the market eventually must retrace its “entire” bullish move, which would not be completed until the US dollar travels below the 70 price level. This would take a few more years or until solar cycle #25 starts up.
I want to see the US dollar slice through that bottom trend line, as we still don’t have a great looking spike. The US dollar has already entered the price territory of the 2009 and 2010 peaks, which effectively kills any idea that a perfect impulse was in progress.
Still there is no real bottom that can offer price support to the US dollar at this time. Every time analysts are looking for support, you have to ask, “support for what”? Support for a huge US dollar bull market to suddenly materialize? From my perspective, some key contrarian indicators have to be in place before the US dollar suddenly leaps into a bull market. None of those conditions exist just yet so until they do, the US dollar is doomed to decline even more.
It was a real challenge to call the 2008 bottom as we were far too early, but finally the US dollar started to soar, and our CAD and Euro started to implode. When we constantly read about the bearish US dollar, chances are good that a strong reversal is being set-up.
Short term we could still see some gyrations, but long term the US dollar is still doomed to go lower.