US Dollar Intraday Review

Since the last top,  on November, 26th, the US dollar peaked at a bit above the 95.100 price level. Then a decline followed by a sideways pattern, which is now starting to drag out longer than what I would like to see. Just that little wave is enough to trigger a review of the big picture. From the September bottom, I can see that one complete 5 wave impulse sequence could be still in progress.

For now I show the entire sequence as an expanded pattern, but I will also keep in mind that another bigger zigzag can still form. If that happened, it would take the rest of the year, for this bullish scenario to play out. The 5th wave in Minuette degree didn’t fit well to count it out as a perfect impulse,  that’s because it fits as a single diagonal. 

The short gist of it is, there can be more upside still to go with the US dollar.  In this diagonal 4th wave correction, the US dollar can drop very deep, even to the point that it slices through the single bottom trend line. Around the 93.400 price level this diagonal would have dipped into the wave 2  price territory. 

Of course the USD would have to soar to a new record high, but it must never dip below the wave 2 price level.  This would be my least favorite option at this time.  One more move to the upside, would confirm my short term diagonal outlook, but longer term, the US dollar should resume its bearish trend. 

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