Some investors are looking for the US dollar to imploded due to the massive printing program they have done over the decades. Back in 2008, this bearish mania was at its record low from its 1985 peak. We were all warned over and over to get into gold and out of the US dollar, yet what happened was the exact opposite. Back in 2008 the USD exploded and has been in a bull market ever since.
This intraday chart is just a very small time period of this bull market, part of a 5 wave run in Minor degree. The 4th wave sure looks like it ended in January as the second low was a higher corrective low. The late January crash has been retraced, and at this time the USD sure seems like it wants to keep heading higher.
It would be nice to think that another wave 1 peak has completed in Minuette degree, but the commercials are still building bearish positions.
I would be very bearish on the US dollar but usually, any asset class will start to “Act” funny, before it reverses any strong trend, which the US dollar has not created just yet. The Euro and our CAD have also made some bearish moves which should happen as they act inversely inside the US dollar basket.
I would love to see the US dollar break above the 97.711 price level as that would establish a new 2019 record high.
At this time the commercials have a net short ratio of 7.29:1 which is on the extreme side. I’ve seen worse so this can keep going for many weeks. The speculators removed 1659 contracts of their long positions which means they got scared. Another way of looking at this is that my bullish wave count is playing “Chicken” with the commercials at this time. One thing that has not happened as well, is a strong vertical spike in the daily, weekly or monthly charts.
On the daily chart, the USD has found support at the 200-day MA and is still under the influence of a Golden Cross.