The US dollar has been in a bearish phase for over a year now. Calling it a bearish phase may not be right as that would suggest that the US dollar is still in a bull market. If the entire US dollar bull market (2008-2016) was a big bear market rally then the US dollar has a very good chance of being “completely” retraced. This would mean that the 70 price target would eventually get hit again. Even lower would not hurt any longer term wave counts I presently have.
The problem is the US dollar will never go down in a straight line, and we wouldn’t want it to. It will give all the wave analyst a real hard time, and rightly so as they think creating a bunch of simple “ABC” patterns is wave counting. The EWP has turned into a mindless trade setup tool which any student can produce after a year or so. Any kid with a ruler can show you a trend line which is one of the most abuse technical indicators used today.
I love working on the big waves and have worked on the US wave count for close to 20 years. Sure, I got many things wrong, but I’m a tenacious kind a guy and don’t give up that easily.
When the US dollar was still pointing up, I was forecasting for it to hit the 89 price level, where it sits today. We could still be in a Minuette degree 4th wave that still has to play out, but then we could be faced with a wave 2 counter rally. This wave 2 counter rally could be a fast and furious surprise move that the majority of US dollar analysts will not see.
In late 2016 the planet was bullish on the US dollar as all the experts had very bullish US dollar wave counts. Even now the US dollar commercial traders are increasing their net long USD positions, which still would need to increase by a large margin. The commercials in the Euro and our Canadian dollar are all in net short positions, so this could present some problems at one point in time.
The majority of analysts tells us what the speculators as doing, which is called managed money. The speculators are always the trend chasers, which always gets them into a trap. A little more sideways or up, US dollar price action would round off our present rally much better, as the US dollar should still fall below 87. At the 87 price level, the US dollar is coming up to the bullish trend line, that could give the US dollar some stiff resistance in the short term.