US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Review

The US dollar has been in a bear market for all of 2017, and shows no signs of instantly switching back to its bull market anytime soon. If this entire decline is just a correction, then the US dollar would eventually pass that 2016 peak.  A return to the bull market has a slim chance of coming true at this time. Not until all 5 waves in Minor degree have played out, will the US dollar be ready to seek another larger direction. Even then if the new bullish phase produces wild and choppy waves than this rally will also be a fake. 

Not until the majority hate the US dollar and love gold, will it be time for a potential reversal.  At one time the commercials were net long with the US dollar which was the first time that happened since the 2016 peak. The last weeks COT report saw the commercials turn net short again, which was what I was hoping for. The commercials would have to be net long by a wide margin and for a long period of time before a big USD bull market can surprise us. 

We also have a mini H&S pattern setup with the right shoulder being a potential 4th wave peak. 

I would be wrong trying to give readers a bear market bottom price forecast, because in the long run the USD can completely retrace its entire 2008-2016 bull market. If an alternate wave count is in the works, then after the 5 waves in Minor degree are completed, we could certainly see a big surprise.

The “D” wave I show can turn into a  diagonal Primary degree 4th wave just as easily, which means another zigzag is in the works, but no new record low will happen. This is my least favorite option, but I like to keep alternate wave counts on the radar screen. 

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