In February 2018 the US dollar crash came to an end, which I believe to be the end of a correction in this ongoing bull market. The big US dollar bear market came to an end in 2008 when it exploded in price.
Many contrarians were warning us that the USD could turn very bullish as all the US dollar bears were in a massive bear trap.
2008 wasn’t just a temporary bottom it was a “Bear Mania” bottom.
I know there is no such thing, but I’m trying to make a strong point that “Manias” work both ways. 2008 was also a huge 23-year bear market bottom with the shape of a falling wedge.
Since then the USD has spawned a major bull market which could last decades but that will produce corrections that many believe will be the start of a new bear market.
On the daily chart above, the 2019 bullish US move has some wild moves in it that need more time to clear up. At this time I will count them as a diagonal wave structure.
I will not be a “Happy Wave Counting Camper” until the US dollar soars past the 103.650 price level, with 120 being the ultimate price target.
A month or so ago the commercial hedgers dumped massive amounts of long positions which did not support my bullish outlook anymore.
With the US in the largest trade war in its history, you would figure that the US dollar would implode. Last week commercials took away 1316 short positions and even added 233 contracts to their long positions. I see that as a bullish development and to some extent, supports my bullish wave counts.
The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act signed in 1930 killed the stock market in 1929, but stocks have not reacted to our present trade war that much. How long that will last may just be the best guess scenario at this time.