I have inserted this graphic several times already, which shows the dynamics of bond prices and interest rate increases. From my perspective, it starts with bond prices falling, which allows the Fed to keep raising rates. US Treasuries are controlled by investors at large, not by the whims or votes of 7 regional bank governors that make up the Fed.
The time will come, when the Fed may give a surprise announcement for a temporary pause, which would be the clearest signal that rate increases are unjustified and will reverse. The 30-day Fed Fund Rate is also part of what the Fed can actually do.
TLT is very popular and if it keeps crashing, then we will get more rate increases, but the fear mongering about run-away rate increases is unjustified for any reason. Fundamentals are all lagging indicators.
Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the majority of the world uses fundamental analysis to make forecasts with.
The COT reports do not justify this massive sell-off as last weeks report showed net long positions across all maturities, which is a clear signal that an impending reversal will happen.
TLT may not be that old but if it was present in 1981, it would still be in a bull market, and what we have right now is just a correction in that bull market. This bull market will not finish until 2101! There is a 120-year cycle in T-bonds and TLT, that have 2, 60-year turnings in them.
1981 was a 120-year bear market bottom! Imaging a bear market that looks like the crude oil crash or the KOL crash, but take 120 years to play out!
We may never get a good price support forecast, but once the bottom is in, we should see steady bullish progress. This bull market is far from being dead, but the world thinks it is. New TLT record highs are coming, as I see this bearish pattern, as just a correction in a bull market.
Supercycle degree wave 3, is just 23 years away, and should peak closer to 2041!