Tag Archives: Wave Zero

Litecoin Mania, Vertical Spike Review

Litecoin started in April 2013 at Wave Zero, it then created a long base, and then a race to the top of about $320. A euphoric  vertical spike is either a time for a big correction, or the end of the entire hype.  One big mistake that wave analysts are making is that they are using a too high of a degree. For LTC being more than sheer speculation, we would have to see another spike to the downside. 

I have no issue with anyone speculating, but investing in Cryptos is the dangerous part.  Chasing a bull market always will lead to pain as we end up paying insanely elevated prices. The Crypto hype has been intense to say the least, and we would need a correction deep enough where the bearish news becomes intense. You can’t have a bull market without a bearish correction once in  awhile.  Many are calling Crptos Gold 2.0,  but this is the furthest from the truth. The Gold/Crypto ratios tell us that. I use Goldmoney which is backed by gold and we know gold has seen some bearish news lately. 

Cryptos is all about technology, and their rise matched the Nasdaq rise perfectly. If all the Cryptos, decline along with stocks, then that’s pretty good evidence that Cryptos are going to suffer some pain. Bull markets attract  crooks and scammers, which the Crypto world has plenty of stories out to confirm this. 

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Bitcoin: Elliott Wave Zero

So you think it’s a good time to invest in Bitcoin? If you are, then consider the fact that you are getting in after about a  7 year bull market has already played out. In July 2010 Bitcoin started at Wave Zero, and within 7 years has soared about 285,000% or more.  

At this time Bitcoin prices have double topped at about $17,000 US dollars. The big question is, where does this Wave Zero fit into the bigger Elliott Wave sequence?   At one time I used Intermediate degree to count out Bitcoin, but I realized that this was far too high of a degree level to start with. Using too high of a degree, when complete corrections only take 4-10 hours does “Not” fit into any Intermediate degree time scale. 

Even the DJIA took a year or so to finish an Intermediate degree 4th wave correction, so why should the same degree only take hours to play out in the Bitcoin charts?  The plain and simple answer is, it can’t. Bitcoin has to start at a much lower degree level, at a minimum by at least 2 degrees. 

In other words, we could just be in a Minor degree wave 3 top, and Intermediate  degree wave 1 is still far away. $3000 price crashes in just hours does not fit an Intermediate degree move. The 2014 peak would fit better as a wave 1-2 in Minor degree. I show this chart to people  when they ask me about Bitcoin, and I always ask if it is smart to get into Bitcoins with a vertical chart  like this? 

Updated December 10

 

I thought I would add a candlestick perspective to Bitcoin. It’s a big mistake to think that Bitcoin is on some higher degree level if we don’t consider that Bitcoin started with a wave zero at about 6 cents.  At this posting Bitcoins double topped at about $17,000 is still holding, so if another leg up is to still to come, then the $17,000 price level will not hold. 

This Bitcoin Mania could have already popped which would mean “No More” highs will be coming.  A dozen other Crypto currencies are starting up, and none of them are accountable to anyone. It’s all private money and many are speaking out against this Bitcoin craze! 

The problem is that players in a mania don’t recognize they are in one, because if they did, they would have sold out last week. Greed keeps the players locked into a bull market, until panic sets in.  When the miners or hoarders start to dump Bitcoins all at once, then that $13,000 baseline will not hold. 

As far as I understand there over 16 million Bitcoins made, with a maximum target of 21 million.  This gives the Bitcoin market a 258 billion dollar capital base. Of course, once this Bitcoin bubble does pop, you will see all those billions go up in smoke. If you’re real lucky,  you might find them in the digital pit of hell! 

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