US Dollar Weekly Chart Review

Regardless of all the bad news that is coming out the USD seems to be making bullish progress but in a very choppy way. This is a sign of a diagonal wave structure, so I will be looking for zigzags to keep showing up. This happens in 5th waves but wave 1-2 is ahead of us and we do have some time left.

Will it take all of October or more bad news about the impeachment of President Trump?

Commercials are net short by a wide margin so a bullish wave count has a battle all the way.

The thing is that the 2008 bottom was a “Major” bottom and was the bottom of wave 4 in Cycle degree. That means we should be in a 5 wave sequence bull market in Primary degree.

Gold bugs need a major USD decline to make them happy, but I think that’s not going to happen soon.

Eventually, the USD has to move above the 103.802 price level but that’s when some serious resistance also comes into effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar: Still Heading North

This could be the first chart where I show that we could be in a Primary degree run already.  Trying different degree levels is important as the USD could make a swan dive trashing the bottom trend line.

Turning real bearish too early doesn’t work as this choppy trend could just frustrate us to no end. The gold bulls sure would get a kick if the USD suddenly imploded, and the EURO started to soar again.

2008 was a major bottom for the US dollar and I think it’s bullish run is far from over, corrections notwithstanding.

The US dollar has very good solar cycle connections as the 2011 and 2014 lows match the two peaks of solar cycle 24. Even the 2008 USD bottom matches solar cycle 24 so it is next to impossible to say that it was just a lucky coincidental occurrence.

When solar cycle 25 arrives will it send stocks and the US dollar soaring again? All the indicators on the planet will not work if we ignore the power of the sun and its 11-12-year cycles.  Talk of a recession is endless which can happen as one solar cycle ends and the next cycle starts.

From my perspective solar cycle, 25 will become the recession killer just like 2008-2009.

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US Dollar Intraday Gyrations Review

I may have to drop this wave count degree level down by one, and I also doubled the “Custom Bars” to 1000. During July I thought I would get a set of 5 waves but now even an extreme diagonal 4th wave is being pushed to the extreme.

Friday the USD dropped like a rock but at the same time we could end up with a huge open gap! The zigzag bullish run could be a bear rally and usually, any Elliott Wave bear market rally gets retraced by 100% or more.

In order for gold to keep soaring the USD has to backslide. Combine that with still horrible commercial hedger positions, we could see the USD twist and turn, up or down!

For now, the trend still seems down as some key support price levels could get trashed.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review:

Since the 2018 bottom (wave 4) the US dollar has been in a bullish phase and at this point, I still can’t see a major trend reversal in the making.  With the entire world trying to destroy the US dollar it still looks like it wants to keep pushing higher.

Since the 2019 bottom, the US dollar has produced an overlapping pattern that frankly has been a real challenge to sort out.  2019 has turned into a diagonal nightmare because diagonal waves can be mistaken for a bearish rally it is easy to come up with a wave count where the US dollar is going to crash.

I’ve mentioned it many times but I think the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market that we can imagine and no amount of fundamental reasoning can change its direction until it is ready to do so. The real bottom with the US dollar was back in 2008 when the entire world thought the USD had died and was advised to get out of the USD and into gold.

All the gold bugs are eager to see the US dollar crash again and it may happen, as any bull market needs good healthy corrections to stay alive.

I’m sure my bullish wave counts are going against the US dollar bears and at one point the commercial hedgers shifted to a massive net short position that I thought would finish the US dollar bull market.

Last week the commercial hedgers made a very bullish move as they added 2597 contracts to their long side. Don’t get me wrong as the commercials are still net short by a large margin.

Our last bottom with the US dollar was about May 7, 2019, which could be a bottom for another leg up. Any bullish move should push the US dollar to a new record high even if it’s only by a very slim margin.

Commercials turned very bearish towards our CAD and gold last week, which also helps my bullish case.

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Quick Intraday US Dollar Update

For the last 6 weeks, the US dollar has seen some wild moves which also produces some spikes that don’t show up with a line type setting.  The US Dollar couldn’t stand up any longer and looks like another correction is playing out.

Still, the US dollar is not going to dive into a bear market pushing the price of gold much higher, at least not yet!

The trade war has been going on for a long time already so the USD could have imploded many times already, but so far it has refused to do so, except for corrections.

I will remain bullish on the USD but the commercial hedgers may not see it that way in tonight’s COT reports.

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US Dollar Intraday: Impending Correction?

This is just a quick update and may not last long enough before the digital paint even has a chance to dry.  There is a chance that a correction is still in progress and that the US dollar could make a deep decline this week.

Nothing but a 100% retracement would satisfy or help confirm the bearish wave count above. Any intraday decline of the USD could also send gold on a bullish move as fear attacks the stock bulls.  Any push to new US dollar record highs would send this wave count to the digital “Bone Yard” very quick.

I look for long spikes pointing down as they tend to be corrective “C” waves coming to an end.

 

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US Daily Chart Bull Market Update

In February 2018 the US dollar crash came to an end, which I believe to be the end of a correction in this ongoing bull market. The big US dollar bear market came to an end in 2008 when it exploded in price.

Many contrarians were warning us that the USD could turn very bullish as all the US dollar bears were in a massive bear trap.

2008 wasn’t just a temporary bottom it was a “Bear Mania” bottom.

I know there is no such thing, but I’m trying to make a strong point that “Manias” work both ways. 2008 was also a huge 23-year bear market bottom with the shape of a falling wedge.

Since then the USD has spawned a major bull market which could last decades but that will produce corrections that many believe will be the start of a new bear market.

On the daily chart above, the 2019 bullish US move has some wild moves in it that need more time to clear up. At this time I will count them as a diagonal wave structure.

I will not be a “Happy Wave Counting Camper” until the US dollar soars past the 103.650 price level, with 120 being the ultimate price target.

A month or so ago the commercial hedgers dumped massive amounts of long positions which did not support my bullish outlook anymore.

With the US in the largest trade war in its history, you would figure that the US dollar would implode. Last week commercials took away 1316 short positions and even added 233 contracts to their long positions. I see that as a bullish development and to some extent, supports my bullish wave counts.

The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act signed in 1930 killed the stock market in 1929, but stocks have not reacted to our present trade war that much. How long that will last may just be the best guess scenario at this time.

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US Dollar Intraday Update

Markets can turn at the beginning, middle, or end of a month most of the time.  The USD had a bearish relapse this month but it looks like a corrective zigzag may have completed.

It also means that the USD can soar much higher.  The US dollar is in a bull market which started in 2008, but this bull market is also producing a large number of overlapping waves. which work best as diagonal waves.

The USD may not breakout and even give us another leg down but in the bigger picture, this US Dollar is in a bull market even though commercials are heavy net short.

Last week commercial net short positions had a ratio of 40:1, which I consider extreme. Having a bullish wave count with those conditions in place is like two cars playing “Chicken” on the freeway!  Last week the commercials added contracts to their long positions and took away 424 contracts from their short positions. This gives a clue that commercials had a bullish outlook last week!

It may be hard to realize but the USD has been in a major bull market since the 2008 bottom which I documented very well. The thing is the younger generation today has no clue how emotional that time period was.

Emotions of a herd only last for so long after which they disappear. It is the numbers and letters of the EWP that capture these emotions. You heard about the “Message in a Bottle”, well the EWP is all about “Emotions in a Bottle”.

Even with the trade war being in full swing, the USD keeps making bullish progress.

On the monthly charts, the golden cross has already happened, while on the weekly charts the moving averages are on the verge of creating another golden cross as well.  The moving averages are giving bullish signals so we have to see who wins by the end of this month.

The full moon is coming up this weekend, so that can produce a turning next week as well.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Gyrations Update

In bear markets, it gets ugly as all the bad fundamental news become front page blog news. There is also a whole lot less cooperation as deals fall apart or governments make wild moves that reverberate around the world. It’s a mixed bag of news so the fundamentalists are getting conflicting news.

Yet with all that, the US dollar doesn’t want to die but is still making bullish progress. I stayed with my 4th wave bottom but the 5th wave could also be another zigzag. I have a set of overlapping waves that defies description except a diagonal. I have also seen these “C” waves explode and extend that also defies logic but happens regularly.

One reason the USD has not died just yet is that it is in a much bigger bull market than many of us do not understand.  It is also the main reason why gold and silver continue to underperform.

This is last Friday’s USD COT report and something wild did happen that was a rather rare event and that was that the commercial hedgers removed a big amount of long positions when they were net short already.

This turned into a 41.8:1 net short position which is a huge jump I have seen in all the years looking at COT reports.  It also puts my bullish wave count at odds with the commercials,  like I’m playing “Chicken” with who turns first.

I could see it if a big vertical spike was developing, but we’ve only had small spikes since early 2018.

Yes, the USD could make a sudden move south but with this pattern, it’s much harder to tell.

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US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Update.

Some investors are looking for the US dollar to imploded due to the massive printing program they have done over the decades. Back in 2008, this bearish mania was at its record low from its 1985 peak. We were all warned over and over to get into gold and out of the US dollar, yet what happened was the exact opposite. Back in 2008 the USD exploded and has been in a bull market ever since.

This intraday chart is just a very small time period of this bull market, part of a 5 wave run in Minor degree. The 4th wave sure looks like it ended in January as the second low was a higher corrective low. The late January crash has been retraced, and at this time the USD sure seems like it wants to keep heading higher.

It would be nice to think that another wave 1 peak has completed in Minuette degree, but the commercials are still building bearish positions.

I would be very bearish on the US dollar but usually, any asset class will start to “Act” funny, before it reverses any strong trend, which the US dollar has not created just yet.  The Euro and our CAD have also made some bearish moves which should happen as they act inversely inside the US dollar basket.

I would love to see the US dollar break above the 97.711 price level as that would establish a new 2019 record high.

 

At this time the commercials have a net short ratio of 7.29:1 which is on the extreme side. I’ve seen worse so this can keep going for many weeks.  The speculators removed 1659 contracts of their long positions which means they got scared. Another way of looking at this is that my bullish wave count is playing “Chicken” with the commercials at this time. One thing that has not happened as well, is a strong vertical spike in the daily, weekly or monthly charts.

On the daily chart, the USD has found support at the 200-day MA and is still under the influence of a Golden Cross.

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US Dollar Intraday Double Top!

Before the digital ink even dried from my previous US dollar posting, we just hit a double top this morning to within .003 of a point.  Now we have to wait and see if this is a bullish H&S or a bearish one.  I still have 3 degrees left but we may be close to a wave 4 type of correction.  I may also be jumping the gun here, as just a small spike has developed. This entire bullish phase has been running since the January 10th bottom with the February low being the secondary bottom as a higher low. I believe the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market than most of us expect, but where we are in this bull market is always the task at hand. The US dollar turned very bullish in 2008 and since then has been in a 5 wave run in Primary degree.

The Euro took a hit, as well as the other 5 in the USD basket!

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

News of a truce in the shut-down wars, forced a reaction from gold, while the US dollar imploded. The Euro and the CAD also reacted on Friday.  It looks like the US dollar is going to keep heading south, but this could also be just another correction.  We only have about 5 more trading days until the end of January after which the US dollar can add another leg up.  Above all, and to help confirm another bullish leg up, this US dollar chart can’t crash below the January 10th low of about 95.050. Besides a few “flash” type moves the markets have been pretty boring, but with the government ready to publish some economic data in the next few weeks, all hell could break lose.

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My updates are going to be sporadic in the next few weeks and months. I will put up a permanent page posting when I have more information.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Update

 

One of the reasons why gold is not really soaring in price is because the US dollar is in a bull market, and not in a bear market rally. Sure, we will see the US dollar tumble, but that will happen during a bigger degree of a correction. The US dollar started getting a bit more choppy recently which can mean a correction is still in progress. The US dollar can still take another dip to the downside before it resumes its bullish trend.

Waiting for the US dollar to turn into an extended bear market is not going to happen at this time, even though commercial hedgers are in net short positions already. The commercial traders do not confirm bullish COT positions in gold or silver, so I’m pretty confident gold and silver will still act rather subdued in the near term.

Longer-term, the US dollar will soar above the 103.820 price level which would be another all-time record high since the major 2008 bottom. Wishing for a 2001-2008 like US dollar decline is just wishful thinking because there is no room on the charts for that to happen. The Euro is inverse to the US dollar and I’m sure it’s not going to jump out of the USD basket today or tomorrow. This trade war thing started well before President Trump got into power, so you can’t blame all market woes on President Trump. The massive debt bubble that China is creating has been bursting which makes the US dollar the go-to currency of the world.

Have you noticed how fast GM shut down production in Canada and the USA? It’s more a snub towards President Trump as I’m sure any plants outside the US or Canada will be the last to shut down.

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US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Update.

 

When I see this US dollar chart, it sure looks like a bullish move to me.  Even with all the Trump rhetoric, the US dollar is taking it in stride. I’m starting to push my degree levels to the point I may run out.  When that happens then a bigger review will need to be done. The US dollar has demonstrated to me that it remains in a bullish trend, which started way back in 2008!  It may take the rest of the week or longer, but the USD should show us new record highs.

Anything above the 104 price level could be the setup for a major USD reversal. All other currencies inside the US dollar basket should react positively as well. One way to look at it is that we include gold inside this basket, as it acts inverse to the US dollar very well. Demographics is the main driver of the US dollar as very few even look at the generational impact of the aging boomers.

Breaking out over 97.700 would be the first hurdle to cross, but an impending small double top could put up a good fight. Some analysts are saying that 2019 could be very positive for gold and I see no problem with that, but I would like to see my wave count of wave 3 in Primary degree start to arrive first.

 

 

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US Dollar Scores Another Bull Market High!

 

The last post I showed that the US dollar was in a correction. This has now been confirmed with the US dollar completely retracing the zigzag and pushing to a new high. I’ve made some wave position adjustments with wave 1 in Minor degree already being completed, and another 1-2, 1-2,  impulse type waves could be in play. Tonight the US dollar has gone vertical, even leaving a small open gap in its wake.

There can be a fast correction by closing the gap and then resuming its bullish trend. The intraday price action is not acting like a bear would as we keep getting higher lows and higher highs as well. This price action came with the commercials already having large net short positions in the US dollar, and to make matters worse, they added long positions last week. Even the commercial hedgers turned bearish on silver, gold, platinum, and palladium last week as their short bets also increased.

The Euro and our CAD also reacted by going down, so all this does not support a gold bull market anytime soon.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Update!

 

This US dollar index has just pushed to a new record high this morning! This is not what the Gold experts want, as a rising dollar is not good for gold which has now responded with a price crash of $38! My Market Vane Report shows that about 74% of the traders are in a bullish mood. This is pretty decent but this not at a wild extreme just yet.  Even the commercial hedgers were net long with last Friday’s report, but they can switch just as fast.

I think the US dollar is in a bigger bull market than we can all imagine at this time.  At this time I’m counting the entire US bullish move that started in 2008, as a single diagonal wave structure, which allows for overlapping wave structures. As the US dollar poke higher, we can check the Euro and see that it is plunging. There are a few other currencies that travel inversely to the US dollar and our CAD is also on that list of 6 currencies.  The Australian dollar is not on that list but runs inversely to the US dollar as well.

In order for this rally to be a bear market rally, then 8 months of bullish action must get retraced!  This is not going to happen this year or even a decade from now.  To confirm that the USD is in a bigger bull market than what investors realize, it has to break out and create a  new record high. This high was in December 2016 at the 103.600 price level.

Just eyeballing the weekly charts, we are close to about halfway to this target.

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US Dollar Intraday Update

 

This morning the US dollar spike to the downside and then reversed quickly. The Euro did the same thing except the Euro is inverse to the US dollar. Calling for a massive gold bull market just doesn’t fit well if the US dollar is on a bullish reversal. Any sustained bullish move in gold will not happen if the US dollar is in a big bull market that nobody is talking about. Analysts think that the Euro is better than the US dollar when they are bullish on gold, but I don’t see it that way.

The Commercial hedgers are skewed to the bearish side of the US dollar by a wide margin, but the Euro does not confirm it. In a wild move, COT reports can shift very fast, as they can add 10,000 long contracts and at the same time 10-15,000 short contracts get removed.

What many do not understand is that the 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a “major” bear market low, which had its beginnings in 1985! This 23-year bear market was just a correction to an even bigger bull market still in progress.

2008 gave us a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, which should never get completely retraced. Back in those days, the US dollar bearish mood was relentless and intense. The majority of analysts got fooled by that bottom, just like they were fooled by the Euro peak.

 

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart: Still Heading North!

 

The recent rally in the US dollar could be just Submiuette degree but it is enough to question any bearish wave counts I was working. At least in the short-term. I looked at last weeks USD COT report, and they are about as bearish as I have ever seen them. 25:1 is what we have right now, while the speculators are doing the exact opposite.

The speculators only have a 6.68:1 net long position, but they are the ones that always get into a trap in one direction or another.  The thing is, the traders in the Euro do not support such a bullish outlook just yet. As I was counting out the Euro at the intraday level, it sure looked like a small triangle has completed. Invert the Euro and we see the same thing with the US dollar.

The US dollar rally will sure keep the lid on gold prices, which may change on a month to month basis.  Even a “Head” is forming, which you will see if we draw an invisible angle line.

Any small correction can still happen but otherwise, I would need a complete set of 5 waves in Minute degree.  The 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a Cycle degree wave 4, so there is no chance the US dollar is on some manipulated path to kill any gold rally. The future threat is not inflation but it’s deflation and this FED rate increase is still fighting inflation.  Even at these elevated price levels, the USD has no room to make a long decline, so that also keeps the US dollar in a long-term bull market. Inflation has nothing to do with how much they print, but it’s all got to do with the “Velocity” of any money in the economy.

It’s the demographic age shift of the “Boomer” generation that will slow down future velocity. Since 2011, 10,000 “boomers” are retiring every single day, which will last until about 2030.  It’s not rocketing science folks as all those boomers will need to cash in their RRSPs and downsize as we become non-productive, leaving the workforce in droves. I’m still very productive, as my little mouse finger does all the heavy lifting. 🙂

I will keep this update short for now, as I may have to make changes, but it may last until the end of this month before, clearer picture forms.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart

 

The US dollar had been running north but the hedgers, (commercials) have increased their bearish positions on the US dollar. Many COT reports have seen strong reversals of positions, so it’s not just the USD. Long term the US dollar is on a major bull market, but during any USD bull market correction will send the price of gold soaring. I was looking for 5 impulse type waves but the next low could very well dip into what used to be my wave 2 bottom, but now I have to work it as a diagonal wave 1 in Primary degree! Diagonal wave structures are very common in all commodities, which are just zigzags connected together. Small zigzags to very large zigzags is the rule not the exception, as we will find very few flats, except for zigzag corrections.

Flats are pretty rare in commodaties, so knowing  how to count connecting  zigzags is very important.

The 2008 low in the USD, was a 23 year low, from the massive 1985 US dollar peak. (British Pound bottomed the same year) That 1985 peak is a Cycle degree wave 3 peak with 2008 being the 4th wave in Cycle degree.

If the USD still implodes this year, then gold should soar. What will happen with crude oil remains to be seen, as the gold/oil ratio will not stay at 17:1!

It may be hard to understand that the US dollar is in a huge bull market, but that only concerns gold investors, it matters little to traders who can bet in either direction, up or down.

This big US dollar bullish phase is heading up to Supercycle degree wave “a” and may not arrive until 2041. The USD could arrive 3 years earlier as there is a 3 year difference between the USD and gold.

For years I counted the USD as a big bear market rally but it sure fought my wave counts every steep of the way.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bull Market Update

 

The US dollar refuses to die and that is because it’s in a huge bull market which only a few market observers understand. I have been mapping this huge bull market to memory first as we have to “see” the pattern first before we can count it out! Wave counting is a secondary act of confirming what we think we are seeing.

This bullish phase can still last all year, but I do expect a violent US dollar crash to happen during 2019 and even last until early 2020. (March) This would happen when the US dollar corrects for a Primary degree 4th wave crash after which we will see a bullish phase in the US dollar that will shock us all. It sure will be a surprise for gold investors as they will get burned in the process. The US dollar bottomed in 2008 as a 4th wave Cycle degree bottom ending with a zigzag. Oil peaked with the US dollar bottom, which seems to be 3 years apart from when gold peaked.

“All” commodities are linked together with zigzags in a diagonal world and where the EWP rules are constantly being broken. It is impossible to make sense with commodities, if we can’t count inverted zigzags lasting over 40 years. Gold bugs have a real problem with a big US dollar bull market as the gold price will get crushed during the next 3 years. This year or in September, gold will break below $1047 and even end up crashing down between $700-$800.

No matter how bullish the US dollar is very long term, it is during it’s corrections that gold and gold stock ETFs will soar. From a traders point of view it matters little as we have the freedom to bet down or up when the time comes. I’m very bearish on all gold stock related ETFs and have no intention of closing off my bearish positions. I have added options to the mix and they have to get closed off a week or so before their expiration date turns them worthless!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

 

Some of the COT numbers for the US dollar have already been shifting as the commercial traders start to pile on short positions agains the US dollar. We also had a US dollar death cross, but during 2008-2011 we had many crossing. Another rally would turn the Death Cross back to a Golden Cross very fast.

Early 2018 the USD came to a screaching halt at 89 after which it started to crank up, push the price of gold downward. in the process. For those that are convinced that the US dollar will implode due to over printing, will be right at one point. The five waves down, since 2016 did send the gold price soaring, but the gold price refused to push higher after.

From about 1992, all the way up and then back down to early 2008 is just a correction in a US dollar bull market that very few understand.

A bear market is just a correction to a bigger bull market, and eventually this US dollar chart has to retrace the entire bear market, and travel above 2016 and 2001 highs as well.

Any bull market with the US dollar is deflation!  In 2011 the US dollar exploded, along with stocks and gold stocks took a major beating. This is a classic description of a stock mania that has happened many times before.

I know EWI has a very bullish US dollar wave count and I switched back and forth a few times myself. Any trend doesn’t just quit on some news as you can’t stop a trend before it’s time! The 2008 bottom was a prime example how bearish the entire world was towards the US dollar. Yet in face of all the overwhelming bearish news, the US dollar started to rally which still isn’t over.

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as late 2007 was about as extreme as I ever recorded. Even my Market Vane (MV) report from Tuesday, has about 74% bulls present which is on the high range alright, but this extreme could also reach 96% or 98% before the US dollar implodes. Lumber had 98% bulls present, which is the most extreme I have ever seen. With the silver mania bubble peak in 2011, the MV extreme reach 96%. With those kind of odds, markets have no choice but to reverse.

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar Monthly 1980-2018 Review

When we go back to the 1980 era we see the USD hit a peak in 1985 before it imploded and started to end in 2008. All this is great but forgetting or ignoring the pattern the USD made to that 2008 bottom, is the key. Back in 2008 the world hated the US dollar as the majority were all trying to get out of the US dollar by any means neccesary, so investing in gold was the most popular theme. I had that 2007-2008 time period very well documented as the contrarians at that time also said tha the US dollar is going on a bullish run. Commercials were net long while the speculators (hedge funds), all were on the US dollar bearish side of the trade. One thing I can “Always” count on is that these hedge funds  “Always” get in a trap. In 2008 the US dollar bears were in a bear trap, and there is only one way to get out of a trap and that is with a violent trend reversal.

The wedge is one of my most important tools that help to see big moves long before they happen. I though the USD was just in a big bear rally, but that $89 price level bottom early this year, changed my mind. I know that EWI has the USD as a bull market as well,  so I would just be confirming them from a Cycle degree perspective.

The rise in the US dollar is “deflation”, by any sense of the word, which is the cause of the imploding price of gold/oil and many other commodity prices. World wide asset prices have inflated so much which is all coming to an end when all asset prices start to deflate again.

The US dollar is in a major bull market that will not end in my lifetime as Supercycle (SC) degree wave 3 is still ahead of us, (2041) and Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 is at least another 30-years past that. (2071) I have what I call in-house developed indicators which I talk about,  but only my one on one clients get the detailed explanation. I have a “Wave Pool” which has a collection of 25 or so futures wave positions in it, with about another 25 ETF wave positions as well.

When some expert goes on a gold rant expecting $5000 gold then this forecast would instantly cause havoc with my wave counts when I’m wrong, but if my, “Wave Pool”, barely sends out a ripple, I know that this bullish gold forecast will never happen!

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the markets are always wrong. When the experts all start to sound the same, it always justifies taking the contrary position or point of view.

Any stock market herd of investors can never win, as markets will never allow the majority to take money from the same majroity of participants. The 80/20 Principle tells us that. (20% of the population owns 80% of all assets in the world)

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US Dollar Intraday Flash Crash Review

This is just a raw data dump that captures what I think is a computer generated type of a Flash Crash! No human can execute in such a fashion. It also shows how stop sweepers work as millions get made by the markets hitting sell stop orders. The huge gap opened up but was instantly sealed right back up!  This US dollar has refused to die, because the US dollar bull market is far bigger than anyone would even dare think about. The US dollar can keep right on heading north right until November or so with gold below $800! Then we will see a USD crash that will surprise the majority again! The majority will never see the USD bull market coming but a few can.

Give it all until the end of the year to become very visible to everyone, after which the markets will be setting up for a major reversal!  This US dollar bull market is far from over and eventually gold and the general stock markets are going to sync up and stay that way for a very long time.  At a bare minimum the US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree and it will end on a Supercycle degree peak! Big deflation is coming folks and golds price crash in the next few years will reflect defaltion perfectly.

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US Dollar: Weekly Chart Golden Cross Review

Since so many things correlate to Intermediate degree 4th waves, I decided to keep my old wave count going. My Cycle degree 4th wave bottom in the US dollar stays after which it explodeded while stocks, gold, silver investments crashed. The entire planet was bearish on the USD back in 2008, but yet it turned and soared ignoring all fundamentals at that time. US dollar bear experts dropped like flies as their forecasts were all proven wrong.

I don’t escpecially like some of the positions but I sure think we are dealing with an expanded flat in Intermediate degree. An expanded flat always means a new record high will come. This new record would be above 104 on this futures chart. The next bull market peak to break will be 122, with the biggest price to retrace being 165!

On the monthly and daily charts, the Golden Cross has already happened, it is this weekly chart that needs another Golden Cross to happen. Three golden crosses on the US dollar sure looks like a bull market to me! Five waves up in Primary degree is what we need to complete wave 5 in Cycle degree. I will be making adjustments  along the way but the US dollar bull market has been unleashed, which will produce a deflationary crash that no one alive today has ever experienced.

Deflation is in our future, not some imaginary runaway inflation that the gold bulls must have to be right. It has nothing to do with printing money folks, it’s all about the velocity of any money in the economy at any given time. Ignoring the world fertility crash is a big mistake as billions of older generations will be gone by 2050 and retired people are frugal. When markets crash, couples stop having babies as uncertainty grows, so after a market crash, fertility rates crash as well.

As the US dollar keeps turning up, then this will drag the 50-day MA up into the 200-day MA and then all three time periods will have completed golden crosses.

That’s about as bullish for the USD as any simple technical indicator could ever tell us.

On the monthly chart I also have a huge falling wedge which is another very bullish indicator that I use. This bull market could keep going for the rest of the year but then be ready for a big USD crash that will send the gold price soaring again. There are those that see it coming, and then there is always the majority that will never see any crash coming.

 

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US Dollar Big Picture Review: Inflation Or Deflation?

The top chart is work in progress. I work out my wave positions from memory in the shape of pictures, then I try to confirm it (offline) by working on my paper print out wave positions. With difficult wave positions, I always work from paper as the rest of the world has their heads stuck in their computers or cellphones. If you were to test the wavers on the entire internet, I bet not a single expert waver can produce the same wave count offline and on paper in front of my eyes!

I have some huge important gaps in the USD wave positions but I’m very confindent, that the USD is in a much bigger bull market than any expert on this planet can presently imagine. The gold bugs are escpecially wrong if the the dollar remains bullish until 2101. (Submillennium Degree wave 3) GSC degree wave 3 would end about 2071.

It’s between major peaks of the USD and its corrections,  that will produce wild gold bullish phases that will blow your mind.

Folks, there is a time when to invest in gold and there is a time when to “SELL” gold. Holding gold at the 2011 peak is the worst mistake that investors make as 2011 was a 30 year gold cycle mania peak. Not some correction in an ongoing bull market where they expect $5000 gold. This is not going to happen as gold will hit  below $500 long before gold $5000. They got their zeros wrong!  I was always scratching my head how the goldbulls can expect a super bull market, in gold when the USD has so little room to implode.

The 2018 low in the USD (89) was a critical clue in all this which turned my USD bearish sentiments into USD bullish sentiments. My 5 waves down I thought counted out great to the degree, but then when it took off, very bullish patterns started and I had to switch to a big bull market instantly. We can’t be asleep at the switch, as every major turning  requires us to switch 180%.

I made up two of these but with the bigger trend lines that I see. Just the big wedge alone, for this length of time suggests a huge USD bull market is coming, which is deflationary to say the least. The USD has turned into a safe-haven currency and I for one switched to USD trading as fast as I could, and I have no regreats in doing so.

What do you think we will find if we hunt for a Golden Cross in the US dollar? On daily charts this has already happened so we have to use the Golden Crossings in a bull market. The rest of the world is sitting on Death Crosses, while the USD has just finished a Golden Cross in the daily charts. Sooner or later the USD should see a new record high, which will shock the gold investor, in how could this happen?

I just want readers to know that even though my wave counts are iffy at this point, I’m always working on the bigger picture. I’ve been at this for over 20 years trying to solve the USD Anigma code and I will not give up until I die.  It is the world birthrate crash that is doing it, that all forecasters are ignoring. I have relatives that are going to get very hurt in the next 3 years, as they are all “invested” in real-estate!  I’m a trader where cash flow is king, and nothing else matters. USD Capital preservation is going to be the key, as all other currencies are going to get crushed!  I have to make a living from my wave positions, and I would be wiped out pretty quick if I can’t make a 180 degree turning when I need to.

I have recently told my client in what I see in gold, and he has no problem with it, even though he has a good gold silver stash for his son and grandson.

In the next few years we will see how financial advisors that got you into gold acually know where they are. How many of them will call up their clints and say, “I think that gold is going to crash, and we should cash out now!”

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

Is this Head&Shoulder pattern a bullish or a bearish indicator?  Tecnically speaking we are at a previous high that still could fit a Minor degree rally and we should see a major decline to follow. If we look at this H&S pattern as a bullish sign then what has to happen, is the point on the right shoulder is going to be forced off.  The 89 price level is not just a lucky stop but it’s a Fibonacci number as well. 89 is also where the 2011 bottom meets perfectly with the bullish trend line.

Falling below this 89 price level, the US dollar would have to overcome major resistance to the downside. My bet is that the US dollar is in a much bigger bullish phase than what anyone can envision right now. Actually, the US dollar could be acting like a safe-haven place to hide, from the Euro storm that has been brewing for years.  The US dollar rally is keeping gold prices in check and as long as that scenario stays gold could crash much deeper than expected. Hoping of the return of the US dollar bear is just wishful thinking because this bullish move could last well into the fall. Commercials are net short the USD by a very wide margin and a bull market can keep fighting of the bears  for a very long time.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update

So far the US dollar is in a bullish phase that has no signs of quiting any time soon. The Euro acts inversley to the US dollar, like our  Canadian dollar and the Austrailian dollar is.

Right now, I think we are in another correction, with gold spiking back up to $1300, and oil also making a good bullish showing today.  If a brand new leg down was to happen then our present run is coming up to resistance. We also have a H&S pattern set-up so if the bearish scenerio is true then this H&S pattern would be a bearish set-up. This could also be a very bullish H&S set-up and if that is true then the US dollar will blow past this resistance price level with little effort.

Any 5 wave move can point to lower lows, but if it was attached to an expanded  “C” wave decline, then the US dollar can see new record highs. This may take all summer and well into the fall to complete so until this happens the bearish forces will still dominate and gold move.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Rocket Bull Market Update

The US Dollar bull run just keeps on going. I hate to call any top at this moment because these types of moves  can extend dramatically. We do have a small vertical spike that seems to be forming, but again we could still be a bit early for a decent correction to take place. Troubles in Italy and the Euro in general, is helping to confirm the EURO bear market and this US dollar bull market.

I believe the US dollar crashed as an expanded wave 4 correction and if that is the case then the US dollar still has to score a new bull market record high.  It still may take the rest of this summer or into the fall before this bullish run starts to get near an end, but it will end. When that top arrives then another big US dollar bearish phase will ensue and gold related assets will enjoy another huge bullish phase. As long as the bullish presure remains in the US dollar, gold and gold stock ETFs will act subdued or very bearish.

In the 2008 crash gold stock ETFs also crashed along with oil and other related assets, so there is no reason why it can’t happen again. For now I started with the Minor degree wave count and it may look a bit small, but moves like this can soar once real extensions start to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In late February I was calling for a US dollar counter rally, but as soon as it did charge up, the pattern was very impulsive looking which usally sends markets much higher than anyone expects at this time. The Euro is just inverse to the US dollar, which has been on a decline as well. It’s not just about one asset class as the US dollar bull market and bear market phases sends reverberations across many other asset classes as well.  The US dollar rally has been the reason why gold has been so lethargic. If a correction in this US  dollar bull market is due, then gold could see some bullish moves as well.  One little dip in the US dollar doesn’t turn gold into a massive bull market over night.

All commodaties I track are in a 4th wave in Cycle degree, and most of them are still far from being finished. With about 30 Cycle degree wave 3-4s in play, it may take until 2021 before many of them will be ending their respective 4th waves in Cycle degree. There are only a few asset classes that have seen a 4th wave bottoms, but in a few years time, many more will join the club. All these 4th wave endings will produce 5 wave waves up in Primary degree, but in commadaties, these 5 wave sequences can be extremely choppy as well.

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Rocket Ride update

This week we saw the remarkable rise in the US dollar, leaving behind one big gap as it surged closest to the previous peak of a wave 1. The wave 1 peak is the  resting place of the bullish trader as they love to jump on the upside bandwagon.  All this has to eventually wear out, but I’m hesitant to call a top just yet. We could get a quick short free fall, and then instantly resume this bullish trend. We can go much higher in the short term, but a correction is due.  We are on a potential wave 2 rally in Minor degree which will set the tone for the remainder of the bear market.

If the USD crashes in a big 3 wave fashion, then, this could signal that a triangle may be in play, but it would also mean that we are in a “B” wave counter rally in Minor degree which can contain the smaller triangle.

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