Tag Archives: USD

US Dollar Intraday Update

 

This morning the US dollar spike to the downside and then reversed quickly. The Euro did the same thing except the Euro is inverse to the US dollar. Calling for a massive gold bull market just doesn’t fit well if the US dollar is on a bullish reversal. Any sustained bullish move in gold will not happen if the US dollar is in a big bull market that nobody is talking about. Analysts think that the Euro is better than the US dollar when they are bullish on gold, but I don’t see it that way.

The Commercial hedgers are skewed to the bearish side of the US dollar by a wide margin, but the Euro does not confirm it. In a wild move, COT reports can shift very fast, as they can add 10,000 long contracts and at the same time 10-15,000 short contracts get removed.

What many do not understand is that the 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a “major” bear market low, which had its beginnings in 1985! This 23-year bear market was just a correction to an even bigger bull market still in progress.

2008 gave us a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, which should never get completely retraced. Back in those days, the US dollar bearish mood was relentless and intense. The majority of analysts got fooled by that bottom, just like they were fooled by the Euro peak.

 

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart: Still Heading North!

 

The recent rally in the US dollar could be just Submiuette degree but it is enough to question any bearish wave counts I was working. At least in the short-term. I looked at last weeks USD COT report, and they are about as bearish as I have ever seen them. 25:1 is what we have right now, while the speculators are doing the exact opposite.

The speculators only have a 6.68:1 net long position, but they are the ones that always get into a trap in one direction or another.  The thing is, the traders in the Euro do not support such a bullish outlook just yet. As I was counting out the Euro at the intraday level, it sure looked like a small triangle has completed. Invert the Euro and we see the same thing with the US dollar.

The US dollar rally will sure keep the lid on gold prices, which may change on a month to month basis.  Even a “Head” is forming, which you will see if we draw an invisible angle line.

Any small correction can still happen but otherwise, I would need a complete set of 5 waves in Minute degree.  The 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a Cycle degree wave 4, so there is no chance the US dollar is on some manipulated path to kill any gold rally. The future threat is not inflation but it’s deflation and this FED rate increase is still fighting inflation.  Even at these elevated price levels, the USD has no room to make a long decline, so that also keeps the US dollar in a long-term bull market. Inflation has nothing to do with how much they print, but it’s all got to do with the “Velocity” of any money in the economy.

It’s the demographic age shift of the “Boomer” generation that will slow down future velocity. Since 2011, 10,000 “boomers” are retiring every single day, which will last until about 2030.  It’s not rocketing science folks as all those boomers will need to cash in their RRSPs and downsize as we become non-productive, leaving the workforce in droves. I’m still very productive, as my little mouse finger does all the heavy lifting. 🙂

I will keep this update short for now, as I may have to make changes, but it may last until the end of this month before, clearer picture forms.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart

 

The US dollar had been running north but the hedgers, (commercials) have increased their bearish positions on the US dollar. Many COT reports have seen strong reversals of positions, so it’s not just the USD. Long term the US dollar is on a major bull market, but during any USD bull market correction will send the price of gold soaring. I was looking for 5 impulse type waves but the next low could very well dip into what used to be my wave 2 bottom, but now I have to work it as a diagonal wave 1 in Primary degree! Diagonal wave structures are very common in all commodities, which are just zigzags connected together. Small zigzags to very large zigzags is the rule not the exception, as we will find very few flats, except for zigzag corrections.

Flats are pretty rare in commodaties, so knowing  how to count connecting  zigzags is very important.

The 2008 low in the USD, was a 23 year low, from the massive 1985 US dollar peak. (British Pound bottomed the same year) That 1985 peak is a Cycle degree wave 3 peak with 2008 being the 4th wave in Cycle degree.

If the USD still implodes this year, then gold should soar. What will happen with crude oil remains to be seen, as the gold/oil ratio will not stay at 17:1!

It may be hard to understand that the US dollar is in a huge bull market, but that only concerns gold investors, it matters little to traders who can bet in either direction, up or down.

This big US dollar bullish phase is heading up to Supercycle degree wave “a” and may not arrive until 2041. The USD could arrive 3 years earlier as there is a 3 year difference between the USD and gold.

For years I counted the USD as a big bear market rally but it sure fought my wave counts every steep of the way.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bull Market Update

 

The US dollar refuses to die and that is because it’s in a huge bull market which only a few market observers understand. I have been mapping this huge bull market to memory first as we have to “see” the pattern first before we can count it out! Wave counting is a secondary act of confirming what we think we are seeing.

This bullish phase can still last all year, but I do expect a violent US dollar crash to happen during 2019 and even last until early 2020. (March) This would happen when the US dollar corrects for a Primary degree 4th wave crash after which we will see a bullish phase in the US dollar that will shock us all. It sure will be a surprise for gold investors as they will get burned in the process. The US dollar bottomed in 2008 as a 4th wave Cycle degree bottom ending with a zigzag. Oil peaked with the US dollar bottom, which seems to be 3 years apart from when gold peaked.

“All” commodities are linked together with zigzags in a diagonal world and where the EWP rules are constantly being broken. It is impossible to make sense with commodities, if we can’t count inverted zigzags lasting over 40 years. Gold bugs have a real problem with a big US dollar bull market as the gold price will get crushed during the next 3 years. This year or in September, gold will break below $1047 and even end up crashing down between $700-$800.

No matter how bullish the US dollar is very long term, it is during it’s corrections that gold and gold stock ETFs will soar. From a traders point of view it matters little as we have the freedom to bet down or up when the time comes. I’m very bearish on all gold stock related ETFs and have no intention of closing off my bearish positions. I have added options to the mix and they have to get closed off a week or so before their expiration date turns them worthless!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

 

Some of the COT numbers for the US dollar have already been shifting as the commercial traders start to pile on short positions agains the US dollar. We also had a US dollar death cross, but during 2008-2011 we had many crossing. Another rally would turn the Death Cross back to a Golden Cross very fast.

Early 2018 the USD came to a screaching halt at 89 after which it started to crank up, push the price of gold downward. in the process. For those that are convinced that the US dollar will implode due to over printing, will be right at one point. The five waves down, since 2016 did send the gold price soaring, but the gold price refused to push higher after.

From about 1992, all the way up and then back down to early 2008 is just a correction in a US dollar bull market that very few understand.

A bear market is just a correction to a bigger bull market, and eventually this US dollar chart has to retrace the entire bear market, and travel above 2016 and 2001 highs as well.

Any bull market with the US dollar is deflation!  In 2011 the US dollar exploded, along with stocks and gold stocks took a major beating. This is a classic description of a stock mania that has happened many times before.

I know EWI has a very bullish US dollar wave count and I switched back and forth a few times myself. Any trend doesn’t just quit on some news as you can’t stop a trend before it’s time! The 2008 bottom was a prime example how bearish the entire world was towards the US dollar. Yet in face of all the overwhelming bearish news, the US dollar started to rally which still isn’t over.

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as late 2007 was about as extreme as I ever recorded. Even my Market Vane (MV) report from Tuesday, has about 74% bulls present which is on the high range alright, but this extreme could also reach 96% or 98% before the US dollar implodes. Lumber had 98% bulls present, which is the most extreme I have ever seen. With the silver mania bubble peak in 2011, the MV extreme reach 96%. With those kind of odds, markets have no choice but to reverse.

 

 

 

 

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US Dollar Monthly 1980-2018 Review

When we go back to the 1980 era we see the USD hit a peak in 1985 before it imploded and started to end in 2008. All this is great but forgetting or ignoring the pattern the USD made to that 2008 bottom, is the key. Back in 2008 the world hated the US dollar as the majority were all trying to get out of the US dollar by any means neccesary, so investing in gold was the most popular theme. I had that 2007-2008 time period very well documented as the contrarians at that time also said tha the US dollar is going on a bullish run. Commercials were net long while the speculators (hedge funds), all were on the US dollar bearish side of the trade. One thing I can “Always” count on is that these hedge funds  “Always” get in a trap. In 2008 the US dollar bears were in a bear trap, and there is only one way to get out of a trap and that is with a violent trend reversal.

The wedge is one of my most important tools that help to see big moves long before they happen. I though the USD was just in a big bear rally, but that $89 price level bottom early this year, changed my mind. I know that EWI has the USD as a bull market as well,  so I would just be confirming them from a Cycle degree perspective.

The rise in the US dollar is “deflation”, by any sense of the word, which is the cause of the imploding price of gold/oil and many other commodity prices. World wide asset prices have inflated so much which is all coming to an end when all asset prices start to deflate again.

The US dollar is in a major bull market that will not end in my lifetime as Supercycle (SC) degree wave 3 is still ahead of us, (2041) and Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 is at least another 30-years past that. (2071) I have what I call in-house developed indicators which I talk about,  but only my one on one clients get the detailed explanation. I have a “Wave Pool” which has a collection of 25 or so futures wave positions in it, with about another 25 ETF wave positions as well.

When some expert goes on a gold rant expecting $5000 gold then this forecast would instantly cause havoc with my wave counts when I’m wrong, but if my, “Wave Pool”, barely sends out a ripple, I know that this bullish gold forecast will never happen!

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the markets are always wrong. When the experts all start to sound the same, it always justifies taking the contrary position or point of view.

Any stock market herd of investors can never win, as markets will never allow the majority to take money from the same majroity of participants. The 80/20 Principle tells us that. (20% of the population owns 80% of all assets in the world)

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US Dollar Intraday Flash Crash Review

This is just a raw data dump that captures what I think is a computer generated type of a Flash Crash! No human can execute in such a fashion. It also shows how stop sweepers work as millions get made by the markets hitting sell stop orders. The huge gap opened up but was instantly sealed right back up!  This US dollar has refused to die, because the US dollar bull market is far bigger than anyone would even dare think about. The US dollar can keep right on heading north right until November or so with gold below $800! Then we will see a USD crash that will surprise the majority again! The majority will never see the USD bull market coming but a few can.

Give it all until the end of the year to become very visible to everyone, after which the markets will be setting up for a major reversal!  This US dollar bull market is far from over and eventually gold and the general stock markets are going to sync up and stay that way for a very long time.  At a bare minimum the US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree and it will end on a Supercycle degree peak! Big deflation is coming folks and golds price crash in the next few years will reflect defaltion perfectly.

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US Dollar: Weekly Chart Golden Cross Review

Since so many things correlate to Intermediate degree 4th waves, I decided to keep my old wave count going. My Cycle degree 4th wave bottom in the US dollar stays after which it explodeded while stocks, gold, silver investments crashed. The entire planet was bearish on the USD back in 2008, but yet it turned and soared ignoring all fundamentals at that time. US dollar bear experts dropped like flies as their forecasts were all proven wrong.

I don’t escpecially like some of the positions but I sure think we are dealing with an expanded flat in Intermediate degree. An expanded flat always means a new record high will come. This new record would be above 104 on this futures chart. The next bull market peak to break will be 122, with the biggest price to retrace being 165!

On the monthly and daily charts, the Golden Cross has already happened, it is this weekly chart that needs another Golden Cross to happen. Three golden crosses on the US dollar sure looks like a bull market to me! Five waves up in Primary degree is what we need to complete wave 5 in Cycle degree. I will be making adjustments  along the way but the US dollar bull market has been unleashed, which will produce a deflationary crash that no one alive today has ever experienced.

Deflation is in our future, not some imaginary runaway inflation that the gold bulls must have to be right. It has nothing to do with printing money folks, it’s all about the velocity of any money in the economy at any given time. Ignoring the world fertility crash is a big mistake as billions of older generations will be gone by 2050 and retired people are frugal. When markets crash, couples stop having babies as uncertainty grows, so after a market crash, fertility rates crash as well.

As the US dollar keeps turning up, then this will drag the 50-day MA up into the 200-day MA and then all three time periods will have completed golden crosses.

That’s about as bullish for the USD as any simple technical indicator could ever tell us.

On the monthly chart I also have a huge falling wedge which is another very bullish indicator that I use. This bull market could keep going for the rest of the year but then be ready for a big USD crash that will send the gold price soaring again. There are those that see it coming, and then there is always the majority that will never see any crash coming.

 

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US Dollar Big Picture Review: Inflation Or Deflation?

The top chart is work in progress. I work out my wave positions from memory in the shape of pictures, then I try to confirm it (offline) by working on my paper print out wave positions. With difficult wave positions, I always work from paper as the rest of the world has their heads stuck in their computers or cellphones. If you were to test the wavers on the entire internet, I bet not a single expert waver can produce the same wave count offline and on paper in front of my eyes!

I have some huge important gaps in the USD wave positions but I’m very confindent, that the USD is in a much bigger bull market than any expert on this planet can presently imagine. The gold bugs are escpecially wrong if the the dollar remains bullish until 2101. (Submillennium Degree wave 3) GSC degree wave 3 would end about 2071.

It’s between major peaks of the USD and its corrections,  that will produce wild gold bullish phases that will blow your mind.

Folks, there is a time when to invest in gold and there is a time when to “SELL” gold. Holding gold at the 2011 peak is the worst mistake that investors make as 2011 was a 30 year gold cycle mania peak. Not some correction in an ongoing bull market where they expect $5000 gold. This is not going to happen as gold will hit  below $500 long before gold $5000. They got their zeros wrong!  I was always scratching my head how the goldbulls can expect a super bull market, in gold when the USD has so little room to implode.

The 2018 low in the USD (89) was a critical clue in all this which turned my USD bearish sentiments into USD bullish sentiments. My 5 waves down I thought counted out great to the degree, but then when it took off, very bullish patterns started and I had to switch to a big bull market instantly. We can’t be asleep at the switch, as every major turning  requires us to switch 180%.

I made up two of these but with the bigger trend lines that I see. Just the big wedge alone, for this length of time suggests a huge USD bull market is coming, which is deflationary to say the least. The USD has turned into a safe-haven currency and I for one switched to USD trading as fast as I could, and I have no regreats in doing so.

What do you think we will find if we hunt for a Golden Cross in the US dollar? On daily charts this has already happened so we have to use the Golden Crossings in a bull market. The rest of the world is sitting on Death Crosses, while the USD has just finished a Golden Cross in the daily charts. Sooner or later the USD should see a new record high, which will shock the gold investor, in how could this happen?

I just want readers to know that even though my wave counts are iffy at this point, I’m always working on the bigger picture. I’ve been at this for over 20 years trying to solve the USD Anigma code and I will not give up until I die.  It is the world birthrate crash that is doing it, that all forecasters are ignoring. I have relatives that are going to get very hurt in the next 3 years, as they are all “invested” in real-estate!  I’m a trader where cash flow is king, and nothing else matters. USD Capital preservation is going to be the key, as all other currencies are going to get crushed!  I have to make a living from my wave positions, and I would be wiped out pretty quick if I can’t make a 180 degree turning when I need to.

I have recently told my client in what I see in gold, and he has no problem with it, even though he has a good gold silver stash for his son and grandson.

In the next few years we will see how financial advisors that got you into gold acually know where they are. How many of them will call up their clints and say, “I think that gold is going to crash, and we should cash out now!”

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

Is this Head&Shoulder pattern a bullish or a bearish indicator?  Tecnically speaking we are at a previous high that still could fit a Minor degree rally and we should see a major decline to follow. If we look at this H&S pattern as a bullish sign then what has to happen, is the point on the right shoulder is going to be forced off.  The 89 price level is not just a lucky stop but it’s a Fibonacci number as well. 89 is also where the 2011 bottom meets perfectly with the bullish trend line.

Falling below this 89 price level, the US dollar would have to overcome major resistance to the downside. My bet is that the US dollar is in a much bigger bullish phase than what anyone can envision right now. Actually, the US dollar could be acting like a safe-haven place to hide, from the Euro storm that has been brewing for years.  The US dollar rally is keeping gold prices in check and as long as that scenario stays gold could crash much deeper than expected. Hoping of the return of the US dollar bear is just wishful thinking because this bullish move could last well into the fall. Commercials are net short the USD by a very wide margin and a bull market can keep fighting of the bears  for a very long time.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update

So far the US dollar is in a bullish phase that has no signs of quiting any time soon. The Euro acts inversley to the US dollar, like our  Canadian dollar and the Austrailian dollar is.

Right now, I think we are in another correction, with gold spiking back up to $1300, and oil also making a good bullish showing today.  If a brand new leg down was to happen then our present run is coming up to resistance. We also have a H&S pattern set-up so if the bearish scenerio is true then this H&S pattern would be a bearish set-up. This could also be a very bullish H&S set-up and if that is true then the US dollar will blow past this resistance price level with little effort.

Any 5 wave move can point to lower lows, but if it was attached to an expanded  “C” wave decline, then the US dollar can see new record highs. This may take all summer and well into the fall to complete so until this happens the bearish forces will still dominate and gold move.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Rocket Bull Market Update

The US Dollar bull run just keeps on going. I hate to call any top at this moment because these types of moves  can extend dramatically. We do have a small vertical spike that seems to be forming, but again we could still be a bit early for a decent correction to take place. Troubles in Italy and the Euro in general, is helping to confirm the EURO bear market and this US dollar bull market.

I believe the US dollar crashed as an expanded wave 4 correction and if that is the case then the US dollar still has to score a new bull market record high.  It still may take the rest of this summer or into the fall before this bullish run starts to get near an end, but it will end. When that top arrives then another big US dollar bearish phase will ensue and gold related assets will enjoy another huge bullish phase. As long as the bullish presure remains in the US dollar, gold and gold stock ETFs will act subdued or very bearish.

In the 2008 crash gold stock ETFs also crashed along with oil and other related assets, so there is no reason why it can’t happen again. For now I started with the Minor degree wave count and it may look a bit small, but moves like this can soar once real extensions start to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In late February I was calling for a US dollar counter rally, but as soon as it did charge up, the pattern was very impulsive looking which usally sends markets much higher than anyone expects at this time. The Euro is just inverse to the US dollar, which has been on a decline as well. It’s not just about one asset class as the US dollar bull market and bear market phases sends reverberations across many other asset classes as well.  The US dollar rally has been the reason why gold has been so lethargic. If a correction in this US  dollar bull market is due, then gold could see some bullish moves as well.  One little dip in the US dollar doesn’t turn gold into a massive bull market over night.

All commodaties I track are in a 4th wave in Cycle degree, and most of them are still far from being finished. With about 30 Cycle degree wave 3-4s in play, it may take until 2021 before many of them will be ending their respective 4th waves in Cycle degree. There are only a few asset classes that have seen a 4th wave bottoms, but in a few years time, many more will join the club. All these 4th wave endings will produce 5 wave waves up in Primary degree, but in commadaties, these 5 wave sequences can be extremely choppy as well.

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Rocket Ride update

This week we saw the remarkable rise in the US dollar, leaving behind one big gap as it surged closest to the previous peak of a wave 1. The wave 1 peak is the  resting place of the bullish trader as they love to jump on the upside bandwagon.  All this has to eventually wear out, but I’m hesitant to call a top just yet. We could get a quick short free fall, and then instantly resume this bullish trend. We can go much higher in the short term, but a correction is due.  We are on a potential wave 2 rally in Minor degree which will set the tone for the remainder of the bear market.

If the USD crashes in a big 3 wave fashion, then, this could signal that a triangle may be in play, but it would also mean that we are in a “B” wave counter rally in Minor degree which can contain the smaller triangle.

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US Dollar Bullish Spike Review

I’m working this rally as a Minor degree correction, which is not finished just yet, but this USD rally  has more to go, as another wave 3-4 should happen.

We had several gaps open up on the way down, so I was pretty confident that the US dollar still had to rally and close those 2 gaps. Now on the way up, a huge gap open up, which will get closed in the future. We know that the USD will eventually decline again, and close this gap completely.

Gold and silver both took hits as well, while oil soared this morning in a massive bullish move at the intraday scale.  I have full confidence that the US dollar is not going to the moon, but this rally could remain bullish in the shorter term.

I usually do not post on Mondays that much as most of the real action happens during the rest of the week.  The full moon is still about 5 trading sessions away so we will find out with the Sunday session if any reversal may happen.

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Update

This is just a quick update as this potential “C” wave could be running out of steam. I would still like to see the USD spike to a new higher high, but that has  a 50/50 chance of happening. 50/50 odds does nothing for me as I want better odds than just flipping any coin for heads or tails.

I will never call this type of a move as a “Truncation” because they can work as running patterns very well. Even any zigzag can come up short, so it’s not like it can never happen. Next week could destroy the top trend line, but otherwise the US dollar should  resume its crash course.

Sure, there will still be many counter rallies, but the only real counter rally is the one that sends the USD back into a multi year bull market. That will not happen until the US dollar bears become trapped again, much like they were in late 2008.  This time it won’t take 8 years or so, but should only last 3 years at best.

The US dollar index is being drawn down towards solar cycle #25, much like the USD was pulled down to the solar cycle #24.  From this 2008 low the US dollar exploded right along with solar cycle #24, so I expect a US Dollar bull market after solar cycle #25 as well.

There is a huge USD wedge that will be finished in a few years, and these wedges can produce powerful bull markets. The VIX is a prime example of what happens when a wedge comes to an end. 1937 to 1942 also produced a wedge, and that wedge spawned a multi decade bull market.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The US dollar roared to an early March top, then proceeded with a bearish phase that sure can fit into a flat. By about the 27th this correction was over and a bullish phase started which is still in progress.  In this case I would love to see the US dollar  soar and completely retrace the top, as that is what corrections are supposed to do.

From my perspective the US dollar bear market will resume until my contrarian indicators start to tell me otherwise.  The commercials are still net short the US dollar, but the speculators are getting close to a 1:1 net short/long ratio. I don’t want to see an even ratio, but I would like to see the speculators become extremely net short before I turn bullish on the US dollar.

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US Dollar Intraday Gyrations Update

The US dollar had made the small move I was expecting, but I don’t think it’s over just yet. The US dollar could plunge back down to the 88.800 price level, then make another move to the upside which could be the end of a wave two rally in Minor degree. This  could still take all of March to finish off, but I’m sure the Fed announcement this coming week, will create some wild moves in both directions.

The speculators are very close to being even with their positions, so they will have to shift to a major net short position when the US dollar hits another major bottom.

The commercials made all the right moves last week and they are still in a net short position by about a 3:1 ratio. Once this corrective counter rally has played out, then this should also have a positive effect on gold.

Any Fed policy will not push the US dollar into a real bull market, no matter how many analysts may think that it can happen. This entire US dollar decline can take until the end of solar cycle #24, which is still a few years away. Every major science site that tracks the sun will be recording and reporting this event, so there will be no excuses that we didn’t see solar cycle #25 coming!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Review


This year the US dollar is having problems getting past this 88-89 price level, which the bottom trend line highlights. The herd of conventional analysts is just starting to suspect that the US dollar is in a bear market. This is far too late, to be any use to the futures traders that know how to bet up or down. (Take long or short positions)

Conventional indicators in the highly leveraged commodities world doesn’t work, because if they did the majority would always be the winners. The fact is the majority can never win because it is mathematically impossible to do so.

The US dollar bull market that started in late 2008 displayed a choppy bull market that happens in false or bear market rallies. In a bear market rally, the market eventually must retrace its “entire” bullish move, which would not be completed until the US dollar travels below the 70 price level. This  would take a few more years or until solar cycle #25 starts up.

I want to see the US dollar slice through that bottom trend line, as we still don’t have a great looking spike. The US dollar has already entered the price territory of the 2009 and 2010 peaks, which effectively  kills any idea that a perfect impulse was in progress.

Still there is no real bottom that can offer price support to the US dollar  at this time. Every time analysts are looking for support, you have to ask, “support for what”?  Support for a huge US dollar bull market to suddenly materialize?  From my perspective, some key contrarian indicators have to be in place before the US dollar suddenly leaps into a bull market. None of those conditions exist just yet so until they do, the US dollar is doomed to decline even more.

It was a real challenge to call the 2008 bottom as we were far too early, but finally the US dollar started to soar, and our CAD and  Euro started to implode. When we constantly read about the bearish US dollar, chances are good that a strong reversal is being set-up.

Short term we could still see some gyrations, but long term the US dollar is still doomed to go lower.

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US Dollar Bear Market Returns?

The general direction of the US dollar is still down. It’s declining in a choppy fashion so we could be looking at a 5th wave diagonal decline.  The Euro jumped as the USD declined, but the Euro is a better looking rally. It’s not a beauty contest, but a war between bulls and bears.  Right now the bears seemed to be winning as the USD slowly keeps  grinding down.

The commercials switched to a net short position, so this helps in knowing that a super bull will not suddenly possess the US dollar holders.  I think the US dollar still has to fall well below that 88.200 price level, but it must also be finishing the big Minute degree decline.  Price alone will never give you the basis of a major reversal, but patterns do. Yes, I use price, but it’s always associated with the pattern I may be working. Price forecasts by the experts sure didn’t help to forecast the end of the US dollar bull market, so why should they know when the US dollar bear market is going to end?  The experts never saw the end of the 2008 US dollar bear market so why should they this time around?

Nobody was expecting a media trade war to be conducted at record peaks of the stock markets, but they did.  The big question is if the US dollar bull market that started in 2008 was actually a fake bull market. Bear market rallies always produce total retracements which in the US dollar case, would be well below the 70 price level. It will be a tough call once this US dollar 5 wave sequence is done, as a strong US dollar rally would have to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

This US dollar index rally hit a brick wall on the 1st of March right on the same day we had the full moon. Last week the commercial traders were still in a net short position so the odds of a huge bullish move are reduced dramatically. A small set of 5 waves heading down, has already formed, but this should build into bigger counter rallies as the US dollar adds on another set of 5 waves in Subminuette degree.  What type of 5 wave sets is not clear, but any 5th wave can turn into diagonal waves.

If what we see has been a bearish rally, then the US dollar price level of 88.300 “must” get hit or breached. No US dollar triple bottom will hold once we get closer to that bottom trend line.

With president Trump conducting a trade war with new tariffs on steel and aluminium, should not be a surprise, as he made it pretty clear to all during his election campaigns what he was going to do. The last time a president conducted a trade war was with the June 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The Smoot-Hawley Act came into existence a month after the 1930 “B” wave top in Cycle degree. 4-5 months for a Cycle degree bear market rally in stocks sure does not fit the timeline length but it fits sequentially very well.

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US Dollar 1980-2018 Update

 

Way back in 1980 the US dollar bottomed and then soared in an insane vertical move which I think ended with a wave 3 in Cycle degree. We can say that Regan was responsible for that rocket move. 1980 was also the peak of solar cycle #21, so the US dollar repelled up from  the sc#21 peak.

Then from the 1996 sc#22 bottom, the US dollar did the opposite thing and soared again until the peak of sc#23 in 2000. From this sc#23 peak the US dollar repelled in a big move south that didn’t end until sc#23 bottomed in late 2008! For about 8 years the US dollar rallied with the run up of sc#24, but then the USD also repelled from the SC#24 top in 2014.Now the US dollar is heading south as sc#24 is also heading south.

By 2020 or so sc#24 will end and then we start up in sc#25. SC#25 could be a huge bullish setup for the US dollar. The big thing is that the US dollar, solar cycle action, always seems to alternate. This alternation action doesn’t happen in the main stock indices, as the solar cycle bottoms can produce real wild bull markets. These bull markets can also be maintained right through the entire solar cycle decline which it has done on this sc#24 decline. A few of my contrarian indicators also have to be lined up, when it’s the right time.

We do have a few years time before extreme indicators show themselves. The majority must hate the US dollar first, but right now you are lucky if the crowd even suspects that a US dollar bear market is in progress. Conventional meanings of bear markets and bull market corrections, mean very little to me as commodities, mainly run on leveraged fear. Fear has nothing to do with logical! A 61% crash can just be a wave 2 correction, and many 4th waves can see a 40% drop. Both moves would still be a bull market correction from an Elliott Wave perspective.

I also see a potential huge wedge being setup so that sure could send the US dollar soaring as well. This will not happen next week or even next year, but looking a few years ahead should be our constant focus.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash And Rally Update!

The US dollar has resumed its downward path recently while the Euro charged up. This is the great inverse relationship that also influences the price of gold in US dollar terms. As long as the US dollar remains bearish over all, the gold price should keep on benefiting.  It also works the other way, when the US Dollar is set to rally, then it usually crushes the price of gold as well.

The gold price got crushed in 2011 as stocks took off  and the US dollar charged up during that time.  The US Dollar hit another record low this morning  before it reversed and charged back up  ending with another small spike to the upside.

To finish the 5th wave down I need 5 waves down in Minuette. Since it’s a 5th wave decline, this 5th wave can extend dramatically so there still could be some downside left in the short term.  Sooner or later we  may end at a wave 1 in Minor degree and then a strong US dollar rally should happen.  It could be a slow move or a violent wave 2 counter rally, but in the long run the US dollar should resume its bearish trend.

A rally does not make a bull market, but a rally big enough sure can fool the crowd. The easiest crowd to fool are the speculators as they always get themselves into a trap. Recognizing that a trap has formed or is forming, allows us to get out of or into positions,  that otherwise very few people can ever execute.

In order for the US Dollar to turn back into a real bull market, we need the commercials to switch into an extremely skewed net long position. They are net long already, but not nearly enough for a super bull to materialize. The bearish phase can still last until the end of the month, so until I see all 5 waves down being completed, this bearish phase is still active.

If we are approaching a higher degree wave 1, we could get some very choppy declining patterns indicating that diagonal waves are starting to dominate again.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

Trump Expresses Support For Strong U.S. Dollar 2018.01.25 (en)

Trump Supports the US Dollar are the recent reasons why the US dollar has rallied. Does that mean the US dollar crash is going to stop and miraculously turn into a bull market?  No, not on this planet! The only way that a true bull market can form is if the US dollar has completed an “ABC” crash already. The US dollar was due to rally already and the only question is how high?

The US dollar doesn’t even have to go very high as it can go sideways for weeks, before another leg down might happen. There is a very good chance that another 4th wave bullish phase is in progress in Minuette degree.  We need this impending wave 3-4 rally to play out and then we may be getting close to a potential wave 1 in Minor degree.

Presidents can try and jawbone the US dollar up, but debt holders like China and Russia can throw a monkey wrench into that plan anytime they want.  I think we still may have 3-5 weeks left, before we can expect a Minor degree wave 2 counter rally. The US dollar is just a bit below the Fibonacci number of 89 where it can build a base, with many very short 5th waves.

In Greenspand days analysts watched the size of his suitcase to try and figure out how much paper work was in it about a rate change. Next month we will get a new Fed and even then, can a single man turn 100’s of trillion dollars of declining value to increase in value?

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Update

As the US dollar crashes the Euro rallies. It seems the stock market is also ignoring the crashing US dollar, but for how much longer, I’m not sure.  The US dollar has definitely added some extra push in the price of gold, but that can also kill the price of gold when the US dollar decline reverses.

At the very top I have dropped down one degree and temporarily trashed my “D” wave top in Primary degree. It’s not that it’s thrown out completely, it just goes back into inventory for now.  I use 5 of the simple patterns over and over which we can be adapted for any degree that I may be working on. Complex wave structures are just combinations of simple patterns, which can confound us to no end, especially if we don’t know where we are counting from.

I have always mentioned that the US dollar bull market could just be a big bear market rally, which means 100% retracement must eventually happen. In order for any wave 4 top in Intermediate degree to be confirmed we must have 5 waves down in Minor degree.  The difference between a potential “E” wave decline and  5 waves in Minor degree is the 4th wave.  Any “ABC” decline  can look just like a “1,2,3” decline for most of the time, until wave “C” or wave “3” has ended.

We still have time left before we get close to a wave 1 in Minor degree, because a 5th wave can extend dramatically. The commercials are still net short but that would have to change to a net long position once we get closer to any wave 1 in Minor degree.

95 was the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so any US dollar Minor degree wave 2 rally can charge back up into this price range. We still have 2 sets of 4th waves that need to play out, so until that happens, there is no sense in turning bullish on the US dollar too early.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

The US dollar bearish phase has seemed to kick in again, and is now approaching a classic downside breakout situation at the 92.500 price level.  As bearish as that may be the 90.600 price level could offer the US dollar bears another big surprise.  Ultimately, we want to see the US dollar crash below the wave 1 in Minor degree as that is just one way the wave count can get confirmed.

I have not had to change my potential “D” wave top in Primary degree at this time, so there is lots of room for the US dollar to keep moving down, for the next several years or so. Of course, those pesky counters rallies always get in the way, which many think can be the start of the next big bullish phase. Dollar bulls start to throw in the towel, only surrendering to the bears, after most counter rallies start to fail.

In the future the entire mainstream media will turn bearish towards the US dollar, and gold analysts will be urging you to buy into the gold bull market, to protect yourself against the ravages of inflation. The sad fact is, that this is far too late in the inflation cycle, when gold will do little to protect you.

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US Dollar Intraday Price Action Review

In Just a few short weeks the US dollar will be starting its second year in a bear market. The mass media still hasn’t caught on, as they think that the US dollar is still in a bull market. As much as some of these counter rallies look like the return of the “Bull”, they are giving the US dollar bulls false hope. Gold’s steady bullish moves so far, helps to confirm this.

The bullish move that started in September of 2017 works as a diagonal move, and since it took longer to play out, I have to look at it from a Minor degree perspective.  The US dollar may still seem a bit sluggish heading down, but I’m sure the US dollar will still have some, “Bad hair days”.

Very bearish stock action this morning helps to make my case, that the bearish action of the US dollar will continue.  When the headlines tell us to get out of the US dollar, and gold is finishing a vertical move, we can expect a reversal of the US dollar, stock, and gold relationship. The entire US dollar bullish phase that started back in 2008, could have been a big bear market rally, and the only way for that to get confirmed, is when the US dollar breaks below the 2008 lows.

Short term we may still see some US dollar bullish action, but longer term the US dollar is in a big bearish phase.

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Quick US Dollar Update

While many experts have still not clued in that the US dollar bull market ended 11 months ago. Bull markets end under extreme bullish conditions, like the USD did in 2016, while bear markets finish under extreme bearish conditions. (2008)   This has all been clearly documented, so it is nothing new. It happens over and over yet the majority can never take advantage of this, as an emotional herd has no memory.  They don’t learn from what has happened in previous turnings, and even then it is hard to believe that a bull market can start in the depths of a glut!

Those that think the US dollar is still in a bull market, are always looking for the real support price level. Good luck with that as in a bear market, there are no  permanent support prices. 

This rally, which can fit a small triangle should head to a new record low, but it may take several weeks or so to get there.  In a panic the USD can slice through my top trend line, and then reverse. Slicing through the bottom trend line will take a little longer. 

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December, 1, 2017 US Dollar Bear Market Rally Update

It’s a new month and I looked at this pattern from a diagonal perspective. That mid month bearish rally fits well as just another “B” wave, followed by a set of little waves to the November 27th bottom.   Since the US dollar can still be in a potential 4th wave rally, we may see the US dollars still thrash around, before another leg down develops. 

Many analysts do not track the US dollar as closely as we do with the stock markets, so we can get blindsided when the USD makes a crazy bullish move.   Is the US dollar slumping because of Bitcoin, we really don’t know, but I’m sure when the new Fedcoin comes out, the US dollar will play a huge role in it.  Any new Fedcoin will send Bitcoin into the digital graveyard, as it is not wise to think that the US government will allow you to make millions trading Bitcoins without paying any capital gains tax. 

For now this bullish US dollar rally has to end adding on another leg to the downside. Every rally with the US dollar can be interpreted, as the lift off to the continuation of the US dollar bull market. That’s not going to happen until the US dollar shows us, that a clear 3 waves crash has occurred, and the news is predominantly bearish.

All I have,  is 5 wave sequences during the entire 2017 decline, with any 5th wave producing overlapping wave structures.  At this time any “D” wave in Primary degree is still valid for the 2017 top. This means that the US dollar can eventually crash below the 70 price level and that 2008 low.  

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US Dollar Intraday Decline Update

I believe that September bottom is part of an expanded pattern followed by an impulse “C” wave bull market. The wave count from the October bottom could only fit into a diagonal 5th wave, ending with a very choppy high this month.  In the last day or so, the US dollar started another decline which could produce a H&S downside breakout situation.  If the US dollar makes another fast move down, then the 92.800 and 91.800 price level could find support for another “ABC” crash.

Instead of a 4th wave top, it could be an “A” wave top just as easily.  The best thing that can happen is that the US dollar creates a new record bear market low, which would help to confirm any expanded pattern that I do have.  Gold, and gold stock ETFs, should benefit as the US dollar returns to its bearish phase.

I started the new decline with a small degree level, which would extend any 5th wave decline. US Thanksgiving is tomorrow, so there will be no regular updates at that time. Now if only stocks started another decline, then this would also add motivation to run to gold for safety.

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