The decline of the US dollar has been in progress just under 13 months and I’m sure there is more to go, but short term radical moves can kill any wave count pretty quick. The 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree is still holding, and I see no short term moves that will dislodge it. This blog is all about locating, and confirming all 5 waves in Cycle degree, and EW5 is the only blog I know of that is doing this. I say this so all new readers fully understand that smaller degree wave counting must come before all the big wave counts can be justified or even confirmed. This also applies to currencies like the US dollar.
At this time I don’t think we are in any Minor degree just yet as the switch would have to counter rally much further. In this case the USD could be finishing a Minuette degree 4th wave, which could be followed by a 5th wave extension. International trade wars are in progress, but I think it’s more about Cyber Wars that all major nations are conducting. The US dollar is caught in the cross hairs as it seems that the USA infrastructure is also a prime target for these attacks.
We can get all sorts of rallies, but none of them will charge back into a bull market., at least until all the commercials are net long by a very wide margin.
We also have to be prepared that the US dollar can soar when stocks make a huge counter rally. COT reports come out on Fridays and if there is a radical change I will talk about it.
The Euro could also see a pop so when the US dollar moves many other currencies will also react.