Tag Archives: US DOLLAR

US Dollar Intraday Flash Crash Review

This is just a raw data dump that captures what I think is a computer generated type of a Flash Crash! No human can execute in such a fashion. It also shows how stop sweepers work as millions get made by the markets hitting sell stop orders. The huge gap opened up but was instantly sealed right back up!  This US dollar has refused to die, because the US dollar bull market is far bigger than anyone would even dare think about. The US dollar can keep right on heading north right until November or so with gold below $800! Then we will see a USD crash that will surprise the majority again! The majority will never see the USD bull market coming but a few can.

Give it all until the end of the year to become very visible to everyone, after which the markets will be setting up for a major reversal!  This US dollar bull market is far from over and eventually gold and the general stock markets are going to sync up and stay that way for a very long time.  At a bare minimum the US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree and it will end on a Supercycle degree peak! Big deflation is coming folks and golds price crash in the next few years will reflect defaltion perfectly.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Golden Crosses Update.

 

In early 2018 the US dollar hit the 89 price target but at the exact same time an extension of the trend line was possiable. The US dollar is acting as a safe-haven go to currency which not to many gold investors are aware of.  With the US dollar still being in a bullish funk, two Golden Crosses have already formed. This is the very opposite of our CAD.

The problem is that all Death or Golden Crosses are lagging indicators at best, so I hardley use them. If the US dollar short term crash was just a correction, (Expanded).  Then the USD must prove this out by pushing to a new record high. Even if it only squeaks past the top by the smallest amount, the USD decline must get completley retraced from the point of orgin.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

Is this Head&Shoulder pattern a bullish or a bearish indicator?  Tecnically speaking we are at a previous high that still could fit a Minor degree rally and we should see a major decline to follow. If we look at this H&S pattern as a bullish sign then what has to happen, is the point on the right shoulder is going to be forced off.  The 89 price level is not just a lucky stop but it’s a Fibonacci number as well. 89 is also where the 2011 bottom meets perfectly with the bullish trend line.

Falling below this 89 price level, the US dollar would have to overcome major resistance to the downside. My bet is that the US dollar is in a much bigger bullish phase than what anyone can envision right now. Actually, the US dollar could be acting like a safe-haven place to hide, from the Euro storm that has been brewing for years.  The US dollar rally is keeping gold prices in check and as long as that scenario stays gold could crash much deeper than expected. Hoping of the return of the US dollar bear is just wishful thinking because this bullish move could last well into the fall. Commercials are net short the USD by a very wide margin and a bull market can keep fighting of the bears  for a very long time.

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US Dollar Intraday Bearish Action Update

The US dollar has been standing up very well recently but and correction has not gone deep enough to make a difference. The rally in the last few days also has been very choppy, so this sure works as still part of the counter rally. I relabeled the top with an “A” wave but this may just be a temporary thing until I eliminate more alternate wave counts.

There still should be a very bullish move coming as the entire USD may still be part of a bigger bullish phase.  The Euro should act inversley to the US dollar, but otherwise I remain bearish on the Euro.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update

So far the US dollar is in a bullish phase that has no signs of quiting any time soon. The Euro acts inversley to the US dollar, like our  Canadian dollar and the Austrailian dollar is.

Right now, I think we are in another correction, with gold spiking back up to $1300, and oil also making a good bullish showing today.  If a brand new leg down was to happen then our present run is coming up to resistance. We also have a H&S pattern set-up so if the bearish scenerio is true then this H&S pattern would be a bearish set-up. This could also be a very bullish H&S set-up and if that is true then the US dollar will blow past this resistance price level with little effort.

Any 5 wave move can point to lower lows, but if it was attached to an expanded  “C” wave decline, then the US dollar can see new record highs. This may take all summer and well into the fall to complete so until this happens the bearish forces will still dominate and gold move.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Rocket Bull Market Update

The US Dollar bull run just keeps on going. I hate to call any top at this moment because these types of moves  can extend dramatically. We do have a small vertical spike that seems to be forming, but again we could still be a bit early for a decent correction to take place. Troubles in Italy and the Euro in general, is helping to confirm the EURO bear market and this US dollar bull market.

I believe the US dollar crashed as an expanded wave 4 correction and if that is the case then the US dollar still has to score a new bull market record high.  It still may take the rest of this summer or into the fall before this bullish run starts to get near an end, but it will end. When that top arrives then another big US dollar bearish phase will ensue and gold related assets will enjoy another huge bullish phase. As long as the bullish presure remains in the US dollar, gold and gold stock ETFs will act subdued or very bearish.

In the 2008 crash gold stock ETFs also crashed along with oil and other related assets, so there is no reason why it can’t happen again. For now I started with the Minor degree wave count and it may look a bit small, but moves like this can soar once real extensions start to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In late February I was calling for a US dollar counter rally, but as soon as it did charge up, the pattern was very impulsive looking which usally sends markets much higher than anyone expects at this time. The Euro is just inverse to the US dollar, which has been on a decline as well. It’s not just about one asset class as the US dollar bull market and bear market phases sends reverberations across many other asset classes as well.  The US dollar rally has been the reason why gold has been so lethargic. If a correction in this US  dollar bull market is due, then gold could see some bullish moves as well.  One little dip in the US dollar doesn’t turn gold into a massive bull market over night.

All commodaties I track are in a 4th wave in Cycle degree, and most of them are still far from being finished. With about 30 Cycle degree wave 3-4s in play, it may take until 2021 before many of them will be ending their respective 4th waves in Cycle degree. There are only a few asset classes that have seen a 4th wave bottoms, but in a few years time, many more will join the club. All these 4th wave endings will produce 5 wave waves up in Primary degree, but in commadaties, these 5 wave sequences can be extremely choppy as well.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review

I’m sure the gold bugs will not like the US dollar wave count, but it runs inversely to the Euro and wouldn’t do it’s “own thing” no matter what we think.

For gold to soar, we need the US dollar to implode, but obviously that is not happening at this point. This potential 5 wave run looks identical to the Euro 5 wave decline. I also moved my bearish degree level down by one with this run, but may have to shift back if this pattern does something completely different.

As it sits this US dollar bullish phase is not completed but a correction seems to be in progress. It’s this USD correction that has stopped gold’s decline for now.  This bullish phase could move at a very high speed, but it is developing a pretty good looking impulse which can make it easier to count out.

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US Dollar Bullish Phase Review

When I was working the Euro wave count I saw a very bearish scenario. The USD moves inversely to the Euro which is clearly evident in the chart. There is a very good chance that the US dollar peak was just an expanded correction and that our February low is an Intermediate degree 4th wave bottom.  I was bullish with this turning but as a Minor degree wave 2. Shit, we could see 5 waves up in Minor degree that will shock and awe us all.   Stocks have plunged, but the USD is soaring so that sure does not help gold any.

Right now the USD is at a resistance level, producing a big H&S pattern. There are bullish H&S patterns and there are bearish H&S patterns, so if this bullish phase has much longer to travel, then the line on the left shoulder will get lifted. Yes, I now have 2 open gaps on the way up, but they could remain open for the duration. This little pattern showing a much bigger potential bullish move, is enough to trigger a monthly chart review instantly.

When something in the intraday scale goes amiss then this is a signal to count backwards to find our mistakes. This has implications that wave 3 in Cycle degree could have ended in 2008 along with oil. Our CAD is going the opposite way which had it’s Cycle degree wave 3 peak in late 2007!  With so many Cycle degree peaks completed it feels like this blog is the graveyard  where Cycle degree wave 3 peaks come to die!  😉

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Rocket Ride update

This week we saw the remarkable rise in the US dollar, leaving behind one big gap as it surged closest to the previous peak of a wave 1. The wave 1 peak is the  resting place of the bullish trader as they love to jump on the upside bandwagon.  All this has to eventually wear out, but I’m hesitant to call a top just yet. We could get a quick short free fall, and then instantly resume this bullish trend. We can go much higher in the short term, but a correction is due.  We are on a potential wave 2 rally in Minor degree which will set the tone for the remainder of the bear market.

If the USD crashes in a big 3 wave fashion, then, this could signal that a triangle may be in play, but it would also mean that we are in a “B” wave counter rally in Minor degree which can contain the smaller triangle.

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US Dollar: Resuming it’s Bearish Trend?

The US dollar has been in a bearish mood lately, but it can still create another corrective pattern as well. 89 is just one rounded Fibonacci  numbers I use, and the US dollar has turned around that number before. Commercial traders are still net short, so chances of jumping into a huge USD bullish phase are low on my list. Wild counter rallies do happen and they can’t always be spotted before they happen.

Any decline in the US dollar for “any” fundamental reasoning, will help keep the bullish pressure on gold.  At least until the entire US dollar bearish move has completed. There are no contrarian indicators showing up,  that say we are at the bottom of a US dollar bear market.  We might get another “C” wave attack, that can force another leg up with the US dollar, but then I would bet that the commercial traders positions would also have shifted dramatically.

In the last few days, the declining  pattern has been a diagonal pattern, which could run out of steam in the short term.

This could be very slow going as well, so I will not report every little wave made with the US dollar cash index. Futures are leveraged asset classes which produce very wild moves. Futures are played in both directions creating these wild swings, which Bitcoin traders can’t really do. The lack of  short players in Bitcoin reduces the wild moves, otherwise the Bitcoin waves would display insane moves in both directions.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

This US dollar index rally hit a brick wall on the 1st of March right on the same day we had the full moon. Last week the commercial traders were still in a net short position so the odds of a huge bullish move are reduced dramatically. A small set of 5 waves heading down, has already formed, but this should build into bigger counter rallies as the US dollar adds on another set of 5 waves in Subminuette degree.  What type of 5 wave sets is not clear, but any 5th wave can turn into diagonal waves.

If what we see has been a bearish rally, then the US dollar price level of 88.300 “must” get hit or breached. No US dollar triple bottom will hold once we get closer to that bottom trend line.

With president Trump conducting a trade war with new tariffs on steel and aluminium, should not be a surprise, as he made it pretty clear to all during his election campaigns what he was going to do. The last time a president conducted a trade war was with the June 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The Smoot-Hawley Act came into existence a month after the 1930 “B” wave top in Cycle degree. 4-5 months for a Cycle degree bear market rally in stocks sure does not fit the timeline length but it fits sequentially very well.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash And Rally Update!

The US dollar has resumed its downward path recently while the Euro charged up. This is the great inverse relationship that also influences the price of gold in US dollar terms. As long as the US dollar remains bearish over all, the gold price should keep on benefiting.  It also works the other way, when the US Dollar is set to rally, then it usually crushes the price of gold as well.

The gold price got crushed in 2011 as stocks took off  and the US dollar charged up during that time.  The US Dollar hit another record low this morning  before it reversed and charged back up  ending with another small spike to the upside.

To finish the 5th wave down I need 5 waves down in Minuette. Since it’s a 5th wave decline, this 5th wave can extend dramatically so there still could be some downside left in the short term.  Sooner or later we  may end at a wave 1 in Minor degree and then a strong US dollar rally should happen.  It could be a slow move or a violent wave 2 counter rally, but in the long run the US dollar should resume its bearish trend.

A rally does not make a bull market, but a rally big enough sure can fool the crowd. The easiest crowd to fool are the speculators as they always get themselves into a trap. Recognizing that a trap has formed or is forming, allows us to get out of or into positions,  that otherwise very few people can ever execute.

In order for the US Dollar to turn back into a real bull market, we need the commercials to switch into an extremely skewed net long position. They are net long already, but not nearly enough for a super bull to materialize. The bearish phase can still last until the end of the month, so until I see all 5 waves down being completed, this bearish phase is still active.

If we are approaching a higher degree wave 1, we could get some very choppy declining patterns indicating that diagonal waves are starting to dominate again.

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US Dollar Bullish Cycle Still In Progress.

There still is a threat of the US dollar to head a bit higher as sideways movements can’t be trusted for very long. We could add on a wild little spike to the upside, which can always produce fantastic reversals. From my perspective, this is a 3-3-5 move which means its an inverted flat and a fake.

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US Dollar Intraday Rally Update.

The carnage in the stock market seems to have done little to the US dollar as it just kept right on its bullish path since early February.

The US dollar rally is a bearish rally, which could still fill a wave 4 rally a bit more, to match the wave two rally that this 4th wave is part of.

Everybody on the planet has to hate the US dollar before its bearish phase will come to an end. In the long run the US dollar decline could end at a wave 1 bottom in Minor degree after which another US dollar freefall trend should happen. It would be great if this US dollar rally were to finish later this week, but that is a best guess scenario at this time.

The commercial traders are net long the US dollar, but not by any extreme ratio, so they still have very little power behind them.c

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

The US dollar keeps on crashing, and it should continue for the foreseeable future.  Surprise rallies will be part of the landscape, but when we are in a big bear market then any rally will only be a temporary thing.  Gold has responded to the USD crash like it has done many times before and has broken well below the 91 price level, that I have talked about in my updates.

I have another couple of downside targets that I would like to see get retraced. One of them is the 89 price level with these futures charts, another price level that should get hit will be at about the 80 range. A falling US dollar is basically inflation rearing its ugly head, but that is what politicians have wanted for many years, with their 2% inflation rate.

Buying gold after it has already soared does not protect us from inflationary pressures, but this is what gold analysts keep telling us we should do.

They may just be starting to recognize the fact that the US dollar could be in a bear market, which makes them pretty slow in recognizing any trend reversals. When you are watching the evening news and two or 3 different talking heads mention how the US dollar is crashing, then chances are good the US dollar will reverse and soar.

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US Dollar Intraday Bear Market Update

The US dollar has made some violent moves lately. One minute it can be a calm decline and the next thing you know it wakes up and swings violently in both directions. Any asset class that is related to commodities has some serious leverage to it. I consider all currencies as a commodity as well. The majority could be just waking up to the fact that the US dollar is in a bear market, which is usually the time when downside consensus forecasts start coming out. This news is a little harder to find right now, but on major turnings, there will be no doubt in how the public will be feeling.

I dropped my degree level down by one degree, which makes the wave action seem more sensitive, which can also get us out of a trap. The degree level is so small that I’m scraping the very bottom of the list.

Any US dollar bear market is not over until more bears jump on this bandwagon going south. On the 10th a violent move up could also be part of a diagonal which contains mostly zigzags. We are presently on a very small move up, but could see more upside before it’s finished. It’s the US dollar decline which is the main driver of the gold price, but other times the inverse correlation is impossible to see for short periods of time.

We will have to wait until next week before we can find out how much more downside in the USD we’re still going to get. We can get a strong counter rally with the US dollar at any time, but it doesn’t mean the bear market is over.

Short term we could see some wild bullish moves, but in the bigger scope of things I’m still very bearish.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

After a great US dollar crash or swan dive, it has now recovered and started to soar with the stock markets again. This rally is not the resumption of the big US dollar bull market, but just a small bearish rally. We will get these small counters rallies all the time, but the trick is not to get fooled by any single rally, even if it travels further than anticipated.

Long term this US dollar can retrace its entire bullish phase, which started in early 2008. The US dollar rally started well before the stock market bottomed in early 2008.  A few places where my parallel lines get sliced in two, is not that big of a deal from my perspective. Trend lines are abused by most technical analysts, as it’s not rocket science to see a trend line. Even a kid with a ruler can see the trend lines without any instructions.  A little more upside can happen, but the reversal should push the US dollar to another record low.

Gold has also reacted down with this US dollar rally, so if gold is still set to soar, then the US dollar is still set to crash and burn. As usual the majority can never take advantage of these cycles, as they don’t have the patience to ride out any corrections.  Emotional traders charge through most of the markets, chasing anything that moves up or down, but the seasoned contrarians get a big laugh out of these market antics. Monkey See! Monkey Do! Seems to be the herd mentality at any given time.

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US Dollar Intraday Rally Update

The US dollar has charged a bit higher than expected. Another zigzag rally could be in the process of completing, which I will use as a wave 1-2 in Minute degree.   There is also a huge open gap, below present prices, so this acts like a magnet and eventually it will draw prices down to it. 

With the stock market still acting very bullish, the US dollar could soar in a dramatic fashion.  We do have a questionable Minor degree 4th wave top which gives us a few more options,  than just a single counter rally 1-2 wave. 

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US Dollar Intraday Decline Update.

For now I put my 4th wave in Minor degree back up, for now. The decline sure has diagonal parts to it so that helps to confirm that a potential 5th wave decline is in progress. I do have an alternate wave count for the entire bullish US dollar move, but that is still too early to comment on.  Once we get closer to the 92 price level, the alternate pattern may  clear up some more.   Our present USD rally  has already a small spike in it, but a mini double top would be a better fit. From this wave 2 rally, the next decline should be another zigzag type of a move.

There is nothing that blocks the US dollar from going much higher as “C” waves can do some wild and incredible things. Gold has been sluggish in its rally, but that can be irrelevant when a diagonal bullish phase is in effect. At this time,  a big bearish move is still in the cards, as the 2016 top can be a “D” wave in Primary Degree.   That potential “D” wave top would give the US dollar a full 8 year bear market rally.

I keep my options open as the entire 31 year US dollar decline from the 1985 peak, is just a giant triangle.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Peak Review

Last Friday the US dollar peaked and then started to decline. No real downside spike has formed so this could be the start of the next leg down. I have to keep an eye open for another decline that can be a fairly smooth declining impulse, but we could also get a drawn out zigzag decline.  The ultimate low to beat is the 91 price level,  as a complete retracement is about the only thing that will confirm that the entire October rally was just another bearish rally or part of one.

I started with Micro degree and will update the degree level as this bearish leg starts to play out. If a shorter zigzag forms, then another wave 4-5 could get added on, but this is the least of my favorite alternatives.  If the US dollar bearish mood returns too soon, then an early counter rally would be close at hand.  I will not emphasize the COT reports too much as they work best at the extremes.

Our Canadian dollar has also turned in the last day or so, but it eventually must reach a new high, if its bullish cycle is just a correction.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Rally Review

What we have on the daily chart is a vertical move, that could be the exhaustion wave, of a counter rally. The question is, if another wave 3-4-5 will still happen or if the US dollar starts to head south again?  Our Canadian dollar also took a big swan dive in the last few days, which just confirms the inverse relationship to the US dollar.   When the US dollar decides to turn down, then our CAD should start to turn up.

Let’s say that I have at least 3 possible tops in the larger degree, and that a zigzag decline is still realistic. This 4th wave rally can turn, and produce yet another long extension, before we get to the “A” wave position.  It  would be great if the US dollar ends on wave 1 in Intermediate degree.  The big question is, if the US dollar is in a big bear market or in just another bull market correction? Not until the US dollar shows us, that a zigzag of a bigger degree has formed, can I turn bullish on the USD.

The extreme bullish sentiment that the public signaled to us, on that late 2016 peak has not matched any counter bearish feeling of the same intensity. In 2008 the majority hated the US dollar, and in 2016 they just loved it again, so we still have a missing time period when the majority hates the US dollar again.

Any bearish mood we’ve had recently, is not enough for a new bull market to bounce from. Markets always behaved the opposite of what fundamentals may be suggest at that time.  In the commodity world, swings are far more dramatic, due to the massive leverage built into them.   

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Review

The US dollar has been in a bear market for all of 2017, and shows no signs of instantly switching back to its bull market anytime soon. If this entire decline is just a correction, then the US dollar would eventually pass that 2016 peak.  A return to the bull market has a slim chance of coming true at this time. Not until all 5 waves in Minor degree have played out, will the US dollar be ready to seek another larger direction. Even then if the new bullish phase produces wild and choppy waves than this rally will also be a fake. 

Not until the majority hate the US dollar and love gold, will it be time for a potential reversal.  At one time the commercials were net long with the US dollar which was the first time that happened since the 2016 peak. The last weeks COT report saw the commercials turn net short again, which was what I was hoping for. The commercials would have to be net long by a wide margin and for a long period of time before a big USD bull market can surprise us. 

We also have a mini H&S pattern setup with the right shoulder being a potential 4th wave peak. 

I would be wrong trying to give readers a bear market bottom price forecast, because in the long run the USD can completely retrace its entire 2008-2016 bull market. If an alternate wave count is in the works, then after the 5 waves in Minor degree are completed, we could certainly see a big surprise.

The “D” wave I show can turn into a  diagonal Primary degree 4th wave just as easily, which means another zigzag is in the works, but no new record low will happen. This is my least favorite option, but I like to keep alternate wave counts on the radar screen. 

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Record High.

There is only one trend line that touches 4 peaks while the bottom trend line is not even worth drawing, as it would only touch one wave bottom. Now if I added a bottom line across several wave bottoms, we would end up with a wedge. Any wedge would suggest a violent move to the downside, but 5th waves can be very boring and develop choppy waves,  that would slow any 5th wave at the best of times.   Any kid with a ruler can draw trend lines, but many experts abuse trend lines to a point where they become useless in forecasting anything. The US dollar would still have to go vertical to trash the top trend line, and short term this may happen. 

In the long run, starting from the September 2017 bottom, we have what looks like a zigzag. I can also turn the entire bullish phase into a flat with a 3-3-5 wave count. Either way, it works as a bearish rally, which eventually will retrace 100% of the entire bullish move which started on September the 8th. 

We also have several gaps open below,  which should get closed off in the next few weeks or even months. In the long run this US dollar rally is a wave 4 in Minute degree, after which we have one more set of waves 3-4-5 in Minor degree, to contend with. 

Most of the markets created downward pressure this morning, which is not favorable for a continued US dollar bullish path. 

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US Dollar Intraday New Record High Review

I was hoping that the US dollar would make a strong turning, but instead the US dollar pushed higher in another leg up. The last leg up looks like a zigzag but in smaller scale of things we can see a small set of 5 waves. The worst that can happen is another small wave 3-5 gets added on. This bullish phase all started when the commercials became net long for the first time since the US dollar bull market ended in early 2017.   They were the only net long by a few contracts, but for a major turn, their positions would have to be net long by a wide margin. 

When Friday’s report comes out, they could be adding to their short positions, which is what I like to see.  This USD bullish phase also shows in a small way how bullish stocks compete with gold and gold stocks. Technically speaking, if this entire bullish phase is an inverted zigzag,  then we should see the US dollar completely retrace its bullish phase starting point in early September 2017. 

The US dollar is also getting very close to the tops of the previous correction so that can add to any resistance pressures. I may have mentioned the 94 price level before, but it took this long to get there. 

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US Dollar End Of The Bullish Run?

I would love to see then end of this US dollar bull run, and this morning the US dollar may be cooperating so far. Nothing but a new US dollar bear market low will satisfy my bearish wave counts. We still need to be vigilant, if this bullish phase still has some bullish move up its sleeve. 

At the 92.200 price level, we do have an open gap so that would be a target price level for some temporary support. Just above the bottom of the 4th wave in Subminuette degree, there is a small gap which must get retraced first. Any US dollar high could also be the last high for this year, but that would need to eventually get confirmed by market action.  

Any US dollar bearish phase can return the attention back to gold and their share prices. 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review

In the last few days I have been going over a very big chart of the US dollar dating back to 1794 and I still come up with a “D” wave top in Primary Degree for the latest 2016 top.  Until the US dollar completely moves away from any potential 3 wave decline, I will keep the impending “E” wave decline alive.

The US dollar stopped short of  the 92 price level and is now in a bit of a rally. If a 4th wave rally has arrived, then we are still short on time and pattern, before it completes. 

The wave 1-2 in blue is a Minor degree wave, but it is a bit small in physical size compared to other Minor degree turn we have had. The Euro is even smaller.  If I drop the entire US dollar bearish phase down by one degree, then in the long run it will go much deeper than we can imagine. 

Any “D” wave top means a 100% retracement of the previous bullish phase will happen.  If all this produces a zigzag that refuses to fall below the 2008 lows, then a Primary degree 4th wave top may also be a possibility.  When the COT report shows us what the commercial positions have done, we may get a better picture. COT reports come out every Friday, but it takes time to shift through them. If the shift is dramatic I will update this posting by Sunday. 

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US Dollar Intraday Bear Market Update

We are one full trading day away from another month end, which can produce some wild moves and turning times. In this case the US dollar may have resumed its bearish trend already. I’m extending this decline, which means smaller degrees have to show up, as we may still be well short of any 1-2 wave in Minute degree. 

Right now my degree levels are scraping the bottom of the stack, with only one degree left, based on the degree list that the Little Blue Book provides us with.  I will not show any wave counts that are smaller than the 15 degrees shown in the book. This will tell us that all realistic wave degrees are being used up, which they all must eventually fit into the bigger sequence.

There is nothing to stop the US dollar from making yet another high, and dragging this correction  out for a longer period of time. 

This Friday will be the jobs report, so expect some wild moves in the short term. Sometimes nothing happens, but the Payroll report has a huge following, and it can move the markets. 

This Friday may not have any morning reports, but I will update later in the day, and a bit on Saturday.

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US Dollar, Soaring To New Highs Or Crash And Burn?

 

 

 An intraday fast move like the US dollar has displayed in the last few trading sessions, can always trash a previous wave count.  We have very little room to move in, before this US dollar chart actually breaks out and makes another new high.  The rest of this week should tell us more, but if the USD does break out, then my Minute degree 4th wave can be moved to the new location, with very little work. 

We are a bit shy of that happening, but since it’s Washington’s birthday tomorrow anything can happen. I believe there is not a threat of the bear market getting killed off just yet, as the bullish behavior would be far more vigorous.  

Besides the month to month trend potential, many times turnings have been close to the 10th and 21st of each month. Many times,  this can be due to expiration days, or important news reports.  The US dollar still has lots of  people thinking it is still in a bull market, but we are going on two months since any record high, has been broken. 

When they see gold break out to new record highs, then the US dollar bulls may give up, but when that happens, chances are good the US dollar will soar. 

 

 

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US Dollar Intraday Rally Spike Review

 

 

Just this morning the US dollar spiked and then turned down. Spikes like this can always be a major turning point, especially when the trend travels between two parallel trend lines. As this trend can also work as a diagonal 5, we have to see what the next decline brings us.  If the pattern starts to look like too much of a correction and not enough like a diagonal 5, then we still may have a problem. 

Our potential “D” wave top has now disappeared from the left side of the screen and sooner or later we will make the February low as the cornerstone for the next several months or so.  We do have what looks like a running triangle which helps in telling us that another degree change must happen. 

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