Tag Archives: SP500

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Gyrations Update

The SP500 is down just a bit from the last record high of 2480. There is a 50/50 chance that one more attempt at a moon shot could happen, so I don’t want to be too bearish in the short term.  Long term this market is going down, but crying “crash” and the markets keep going higher gets pretty tiresome after a few months or more.   Since the 2009 bottom the markets have been in a diagonal 5th wave in Primary degree, heading towards a Cycle degree wave 3 top.

This huge bullish phase would now be 2 degree levels higher than the 200o peak, of Intermediate degree.  Many in the mainstream media are calling for a correction in the markets and I agree with them. The trick is knowing approximately how deep this so called anticipated correction can go. Any 70% crash sure would be a bigger dip than the majority expect.

When they do realize this then fear could really kick into overdrive. I couldn’t give you an exact bottom as well, but this market will flash oversold conditions long before the SP500 will ever hit the real bottom.  Once the stock bear market is completing its bearish phase, then we should get a 5 or 8 year bull market, as solar cycle #25 will be the real driving force behind the next bull market.

Any 20% correction would just work like a little bee sting, as we need the majority to be very bearish on stocks before any true bottom arrives. The end of any Cycle degree 4th wave may take until 2021 to play out as it will definitely not happen overnight, or as fast as the 2008-2009 bear market.

Either way I’m sure that we will hear all sorts of SC or GSC degree forecasts, calling for the SP500 to fall to 400! My analysis says it will never get there, and if the SP500 clears that 666 bottom level I will be pleasantly surprised.

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Mini SP500 Rally Review

Since the June top  the markets have declined with wild moves in both directions. It is pretty hard to see a real trend, which can also just be part of a small correction belonging to the bullish phase. If the bullish phase is still going to happen then a new record high would have to be established to confirm it.   As it sits I can still work it as a diagonal wave structure, but I’m also reaching the limits of how far this SP500 can go. 

At one peak this morning we had about 5 points to spare, so this wave count can still be destroyed in a very short time. For this market to confirm a bearish rally, it would eventually have to drop well below the 2402 price level, after which another diagonal wave 1 would follow. This would be a one degree higher wave 1 in Minute degree. 

These choppy patterns will start to smooth out due to alternation, but can go deep as 5th waves can decline far more than any trend line might suggest.

Right now a small decline is in progress, but we have to see if further downside is going to happen later this week. 

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SP500 Cash Chart, Intraday Bullish Rally Review

 

 

This chart does not trade during the night, but it sure seems to have a better wave pattern,  that can be easier to create wave counts with. On the Intraday charts the SP500 did not drop to new record lows like the DJIA did,  so that always produces conflicting wave counts at this intraday level.  When it comes to diagonal charts, all hell can break loose as the waves can charge up and down dramatically.  At any other time we would just about  call it a triangle, but I don’t think this is the case with this market.

Since all my counts are diagonal everything has to be counted with zigzags in mind. Our present rally sure can fit as another “B” wave rally, which would then be followed by another set of 5 waves, resuming the “C” wave trend back down. We would be heading down another, “C5” set of waves which can extend dramatically when they want to.  If that is the case, then it sure would take the rest of this month to play out,  before we  get close to a potential diagonal wave 3 position.  Any C5 decline can alternate from the A5 decline, where we would hardly see any subdivisions at all,  as they can be really small in physical size.  Just in case you may be reading about  any A5 and C5 waves, for the first time, I use that description to  separate between the leading 5 waves to an “A” wave,  and then the C5 is always the trailing set of 5 waves.  This is for any zigzag in any direction, and in any degree.

I know it sure seems like slow going, but I’m sure there will be times when sheer panic sets in, which will speed up any slowpoke decline.  They have daily limits set anyways, so that usually will put some sort of a cap on any real single dramatic decline.

We are still a full 4 days away from any new moon, which can give us great reversal setup as well.

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SP500 1980-2016 Cycle Degree Review

 

 

At every turning I ask 3-5 questions, assuming that the position is correct from an idealized perspective. In this case a Cycle degree perspective. I spent a good part of my life chasing the wrong degree, along with everyone else on this planet. I continuously lowered my degree levels with no real plan, but now I go at it far more systematically. The high degree wave counters continuously missed major bull markets in every major asset class that I cover, yet the contrarians saw a bull market coming far better than any wave counter ever did. 

By insiders I mean the owners of the stocks that make up all the 5 indices that I carry wave counts on. Not until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are confirmed as being completed, can we ever hope to enter the SC degree world. 

Besides counting in a high degree makes us very insensitive to the bearish mood, as the 2009 bottom clearly showed us. Every insider on the planet was buying stocks back in late 2008 already, while the entire wave counting herd was on the most bearish wave count in history. How did that work out for everybody? 

Insiders do not buy on a whim, as they may hold for many years before ever selling out, so this alone killed the stock bear market in 2009.  

Meanwhile Kaplan, one of my favorite contrarians was calling for the biggest bull market since the depression. Even Warren Buffet was very bullish in late 2008. 

All this under the Elliott Wave forecasts of DOW 1000.  Well, DOW 1000 would put the SP500 at well below 70 points.  No way was this going to happen, as we now know looking in hindsight. Hindsight is a powerful tool and as wave analysts must always go back to find a better fit. Those that do not look back in time, will always have wave counts that will miss bull markets and even miss bear markets as well.  

The Cycle degree 4th wave position can have a lot of leeway, but it would not surprise me if the SP500 stopped short and then charged back up. This all has to happen before or just a bit after solar cycle #25 starts. 

The sun dominates and controls all action on our planet, and if the herd has turned all bearish at that time, then they will miss another one of the greatest bull markets since the Roaring 20’s.  

A Cycle degree decline should put the USA and Canada into another recession, and Canada is already well on its way.  They may end up calling it a depression, but it would be over as soon as those words come out of their mouth! 

At every wave 3 top I look for a pattern from a choice of 5, Two patterns we can eliminate right away, which leaves us with a potential of 3 simple corrective patterns that we should expect. The book tells us exactly what degree levels we need for all this to come true.  I will keep all three open at this time, but the triangle is at the bottom of the list.  There is not enough time in a triangle to play out in its entirety, before 2021.

Again, I would like to thank all the readers that have pushed the monthly pages read to its highest levels since I started blogging. Today we have achieved well over 24,000 pages read, and we still have a few days or so to go. Higher pages being read translates into higher ad revenues as well. 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Action Review. Is The Bull Trap Ready To Snap?

 

esz16-sept-21-2016

 

This is the recent move in stocks which shows that the SP500 charged up past the September peak which is ideal. How it got there is more important than what the price is, as from my perspective, pattern trumps the price, any day of the week. If the wave count is too far off, then the majority of prices will get hit all the time. If you flip this chart upside down in your editor, it would be the same as the zigzag crash on the VIX chart, that I posted today. I will insert the VIX again below.

This has all the markings of a bearish rally at this time, so I can no longer be bullish in my outlook. The C wave was a perfect diagonal, and I would call it an ending diagonal as well. This shows that the entire “C” wave  is in a diagonal wave structure.

The 10th and the 21th of the month can cause reversals, as it has much to do with expiration dates of options and futures contracts. For this move to confirm that it is still in a real bearish trend, it would eventually have to take out the 2000 price level and more. The rest of the week should prove interesting, once it gets obvious that the markets are heading down again.

I can only give you commentary as I describe something that is happening on a rather small scale. If it happens on a smaller scale than it can happen at any degree level as well. Any wave count can still blow up and this case the SP500 would have to soar like an eagle. It’s the middle of the week as well, where markets can turn and go the opposite direction of what they did, in the beginning of the week. 

 

viy00-sept-21-2016

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E-Mini SP500 2000-2016 Review

 

ESU16-Aug-10-2016

 

I spent 20 years looking for the right location where the Cycle degree wave 3 may fit. Take your pick, which peak is the real peak, for Cycle degree wave 3 to have a permanent home.  

Notice that they are all 3 wave peaks, but none of them show a Cycle degree wave 3.  That’s because I haven’t found it, and those that think they have found it already back in the 1970’s are sadly mistaken.  To get a better fitting wave count we always have to go back and double check and try another wave count as any changes also produce a totally different future.

The 2009 bottom was a zigzag crash, which forecast the entire bull market. At a minimum the SP500 should have cleared the 2007 top, which it did with flying colors. Unless the SP500 adds on another big leg, we could also be in a single type expanded flat, where the 1800 price level would be a target.  

From the 2009 bottom and subsequent bull market works as a diagonal 5th wave, as the fundamentals as bad as they were, were far better than you would see in any big “B” wave top.   

Nothing has moved to make an obvious impact to the wave count so we have to see what develops for the rest of this month. 

 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Decline Review

 

ESU16-Aug-3-2016

 

I am sure many will be calling this the, “big one” as it seems that this mini SP500 has rolled over. All the numerous extreme bearish forecasts that have been forecast have never materialized. If this market is going down then it can’t stop until it hits a new record 2016 bottom. This would make the entire July rally as part of a bearish rally. The potential that the recent top could be a “D” wave, should still send the SP500 crashing. 

Again, I must reiterate that a major high does not make a major wave count high. We have expanded patterns, that there sole functions are to fool as many wave counters as it can.  Three indices all have the potential to be in a triangle and until that is resolved, there is always a chance that wave 3 in Cycle degree is still ahead of us.  Expanded patterns make us believe that they are the real tops, but this is the furthest from the truth. Expanded tops, sure can and do crash, but eventually they stop and reverse and just carry on with the next bullish phase.

The conventional explanation for a bear market of lower highs will not work, as they are major bear traps. If nobody is looking for these expanded patterns, then nobody will find them.   

There is not a single trader that would not want to be long at the bottom of an “E” wave, but chances are good so much fear will be present that nobody will think straight, and miss the entire event anyways. Catching a falling knife is not what wave counters and the general public does.

Right now we are in a bit of a rally and this rally would have to die out and then resume its bearish trip down south again.   

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Mini SP500 Daily Cash Chart Review.

 

ESY00-June-8-2016

 

So close, but we still don’t have a breakout as a done deal. I looked over the big picture thinking how this market just refuses to die. I can only guess that there are lazy actors at work, and that they refuse to follow the script.  When this happens, it is very important to go over the bigger picture and see if an alternate wave pattern can be counted out. 

We had a March crash low, after which this cash chart started to soar. Ok, but if a single impulse is in progress, then does that mean a super rally is still ahead of us? Well, yes and no, as we could still be faced with another zigzag, and we may be approaching the “A” wave soon. Of course, if what I have is an expanded correction, then the “C” leg of it is already being played out.  We need a clear correction to give us the confidence that this bullish phase still has legs.

There are just too many discrepancies between the Russel 2000 and this stock market, which I don’t think should be the case if the real 5 wave impulse “C” wave, is here already.  We have so many tops from May 2015 until now,  that it looks like a Bart Simpson haircut. Eventually, it will sort itself out as a blast to new highs will certainly help.  

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Mini SP500 Daily Cash Chart Review

 

ESY00-June-7-2016

 

This is the cash chart of the Mini SP500 and is just used in lieu of an index. The June contract will be finished in 10 days, or sooner, after which we will swing into the September contract. With this chart, we still have not exceeded May 2015 highs, but we are so close to breaking out.   Now it becomes important for the SP500 to show some clarity, and not leave us with this mess of topping peaks.  This would kill any hope of a potential, wave two top,  in Intermediate degree.   In a perfect world, I would like to see a cleaner top, but I have to stop whining as this world is not perfect.  Elliott Waves will do everything in their power to constantly try and fool us, as no wave count is a sure bet.

This surely can’t go on forever and we have to see when this next set of 5 waves is going to complete. What type of pattern any decline makes is the most important thing as if they are corrections then another leg up will happen. For close to a year this market has gone sideways with virtually no real net gain. We need all the discouraged stock investors to head  into gold as it is pretty hard to ignore all the gains gold has made, while stocks bounce around like a wild rabbit!   

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E-Mini SP500 Intrday Crash Review

ESM16-April-29-2016

The market crash was maturing a bit more this morning as we seemed to be on a very nice spike heading down. The Mini DJIA and the Mini SP500 are always on a slightly different wave count from each other. From a wave count perspective, these differences are huge as one can be counted as an impulse and the other as an “ABC” type pattern. If this were an “ABC” crash, then yes, this market will turn and head higher.  What type of a pattern any big correction will make will determine how far it can go, as inverted “ABCs” get completely retraced.   

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