Tag Archives: Solar Cycle

Canadian Dollar Futures Daily Chart Update



At this point our Canadian dollar is still sinking that some say is the end of the Candaina dollar bull market. Hate to break the bad news folks, but the Canadian dollar bull market ended about 10 years ago. What we are in is the impending end of our Canadian dollar bear market. This end is still a few years away as we still would have wave 4-5 in Minute degree  to work through. We know what a pain in the ass some of these last waves can be, as the markets will always throw something at us to keep us scratching our heads.

Commercials are net short and that situation would also have to shift to a point when commercials are net long again by a wide margin.

Right now our CAD could be getting close to being a single flat, so until we break the May 2017 lows, our CAD can still reverse. So far this would be the least likely scenario, but a another counter rally should happen by the end of next week.  There are many turning points following the month to month pattern, but that is not written in stone.

So far the rally peak in 2017 looks like an inverted zigzag did play out, which means 100% of the entire bullish move that started in 2016 should get retraced. The CAD is going down along with the solar cycle #24 which means that solar cycle #25  pulling the CAD down. Any  end to the big CAD bear market, could take until solar cycle #24 has ended.

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Solar Cycle #24 Update

It takes them a little less than a week into the new month, before they update this solar cycle chart. Each black dot represents the previous months solar activity  and we can see that in October solar activity has crashed. We are now pushing 6 days in a row with no sunspot activity. In total 2017  had about 74 spotless days.  This is well over double the spotless days we had in 2016.  Before this decline is all said and done, our spotless days will increase every year for a few more years yet.

 

 

Just because there is no sunspot activity at this time does not mean there are no solar winds. The opposite is true as big black holes open up at the northern part of the sun, sending geomagnetic winds towards earth.  We see these storms in the Northern and Southern regions near our poles. They have many satellites taking readings of the sun 24 hours a day, and many sites will be tracking the sun when the sun flips its poles one more time. 

In 2008-2009 solar cycle #23 ended and solar cycle #24 started. It was the solar cycle that caused the stock markets to soar,  which it has done many times in the last 100 years or so. The sun has a heartbeat of about 9 beats per 100 years and solar cycle #24 should end close to the 2020-2021 time period. 

You don’t want to be bearish when solar cycle #24 has ended, as solar cycle #25 could kick off the next great business cycle.  Any so called depression, or recession at that time, will come to a screeching halt followed by another 8 year bull market. At this time it would be solar cycle #25 that will make my vision of the idealized  Cycle degree 5th wave go!  

Even though we could see a very bearish bottom in a few years, the future is a lot brighter than what all the Doomsayers are preaching. Fear is a tool they use to manipulate peoples emotions, and once they control you it is extremely hard to break free from this manipulative trap.   

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Sunspot Number Progression

For the last 20 years or so I have been following the solar cycles.  Each dot represents the previous month’s tally in how many active solar spots occurred during that month.  The count was well above the 25 level, but it’s not finished yet. This solar cycle #24 still has a few years to go as it should roll around the bottom for many months as well.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 days
2017 total: 61 days (21%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 13 Oct 2017

In the last 5 days no sunspot activity has been recorded, I’m  sure long stretches of inactivity will still get recorded before solar cycle #25 comes along.

Huge solar storms still come in from big holes in the sun, which produce the beautiful auroras to the north. Tourists from around the world regularly visit places in Alaska and Sweden to witness these stunning displays. Many planets in our solar system also display auroras, but with different colors. Storms from the sun can produce massive disruptions on earth and the astronauts in the ISS have to go into the safe room until the threat passes.

Without the protection of our magnetic field our DNA would get resequenced, basically exterminating all life on earth. One of the last solar cycles that was this low happen back in the early 1900s.

Solar Minimum is Coming | Science Mission Directorate

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Comment On The Solar Eclipse on August, 21, 2017

National parks brace for eclipse crowds – MarketWatch

A very smart reader has made me aware that on August, 21, 2017 we will experience a solar eclipse across many parts of the USA. Other market analysts are also talking about this date, but the new moon also falls on that date. We know that new moon dates can be very bearish for stocks. Options expiration dates can also hit close to the 21st so we could be hit with triple turning dates at the same time.

If something major does happen, we will never know which one of the three indicators will be the main cause. My bet is that the solar eclipse will be shorter in duration than the new moon will have, so the new moon would impact the markets more than the solar eclipse will. In the end, we will never know if and when it happens which one will make the biggest impact.

 Many think it’s silly to think that celestial bodies have influence on earth, but all my research says that they do. Jupiter has a 11.8 year orbital cycle and Saturn has a 30 year cycle. Jupiter fits very well with the 11 year solar cycle average and the 30 year cycle is just part of the WD Gann 60 year cycle. 

What the solar eclipse on Aug. 21 will mean for stocks – MarketWatch

Mark Hulbert talks about the solar eclipse and the markets as well. 

I use a 100 year time span, which means I go back to 1917 and look forward 100 years. 100 year cycles include 4 generational cycles or seasons. In 100 years, many cycles of inflation or deflation can repeat. The majority can never think in 100 year time spans as group think doesn’t have any memory! Emotions can’t be stored no matter how big of a USB drive the group thinkers have. 

When GSC degree bears can call for a 600 year bear market, then looking 100- 200 years ahead is the minimum we must be able to do, to compete or confirm such wild claims. 

We have been brainwashed to believe that the industrial age created by man, is causing global warming. If this is true, then climate change produces the Elliott waves we see in the markets.

 I’m a firm believer in natural cycles as nothing in our universe travels in a straight line forever, even light can bend or be redirected.  

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SP500 Supercycle Review

I spent more than 10  years, counting wave structures in Grand Supercycle degree (GSC), then I moved down the degree stack and counted everything in Supercycle (SC) degree for a few years. I even started another blog just dedicated to SC degree wave counts. When I saw that the majority of expert wave analysts missed an 8 year bull market, I knew that SC and GSC degree wave counting had major flaws in it and that it must be thrown out. 

This flaw is the lack of understanding that wave 3 is always the longest wave in the general stock markets. 5th waves do extend, but they are rare and usually involve the last degree before a top. In the 1900’s I believe that the markets developed a Cycle degree diagonal 5th wave, ending with the peak in 1929. 

I don’t think a multi generational 5th wave extension can even happen, as 5th waves are generally the weakest as well. Yet every expert wave analyst counts with extended 5th waves. Those that count from a 4th wave base, will always move into a higher degree level long before it is supposed to arrive.

I will be talking about Supercycle degree (SC) from time to time, as technically the general stock markets, are still in an extended wave three in SC, and GSC degree. SC degree wave 3 has not completed anywhere, and it may not arrive until the 2029 time period. The Elliott Wave Principle is not about flipping pretty numbers and letters around, as any kid can do that. It’s all about how we visualize the idealized wave structure. Each time we label a position on paper or in our computers, we are also technically travelling in time. To time travel, I like to go back 100 years, and then look forward 100 years. Four generational seasons make up a 100 year cycle, and most economic cycles repeat themselves in 100 years. 

The short story is by “Ignoring history, we are doomed to repeat it” which is especially true in the financial markets.

Below is a chart of the SP500, which does not update that frequently, but it gives us a good long term picture from the 1929 top.


All the super bearish forecasts that will be mentioned in the future are irrelevant, if we think we are in some mythical SC or GSC degree world already. From my perspective, we are a minimum of 2 degrees lower due to the fact that wave 3s have never been extended. At times at the 2000 peak, my wave counts were about 4 degree levels lower. 

Readers must understand that I see the EWP as just one big ” Idealized impulse” wave structure, and that these wave structures are extended wave 3s not extended 5th waves. The peak in 1929 and the 1932 bottom is my wave 1-2  in SC degree, and not a wave 3-4!  Just being out by 1 degree can throw any forecast off by a minimum of 60%. (1.618) 

The same problem shows up in the 1960-1975 bear market, which the majority assumes is the location of Cycle degree wave 3 and 4.  To recap, the majority use a 4th wave base from the 1932 bottom and then another Cycle degree 4th wave base in 1975.

Labeling 1932 and 1975 as 4th wave bases would give us about an 85 year long SC degree 5th wave extension so far. That’s almost three generational seasons long, for a 5th wave extension?  Technically, this cannot happen, yet the majority of wave analysts all count from a wave 4 base.

 It’s also the main reason why experts missed the biggest bull market since the depression. (2009 -2017). How many expert wave analysts posted any wave count that was extremely bullish in 2009? No wave analysts that I was reading at that time could say with great confidence, that a multi year bull market in stocks was coming.

As long as the wave analysts believe that SC and GSC degree, are here already, then wave followers will continually  miss major bull markets. This happens because they have never gone back in history and looked for alternatives.  Going back 100 years and starting fresh, is too much like work, so until they want to do the work, the same setup that happened at the 2008-2009 bottom will happen again at the 2020-2021 time period.

The start of any new solar cycles are bear market terminators, as they will trash all bearish wave counts and related moods. The studies of the sun and the real impact on the stock market is not rocket science folks, as many have made the same connections.  

‎www.ez3dbiz.com/2016_stock_market.pdf

The link above is just one link to a solar cycle study.

 

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2017 Wheat Glut Review! Will the Glut Be Over Soon?

Dusty Fields Signal a Peak for the Global Wheat Glut – Bloomberg

When I read the story about the wheat glut, I was a bit surprised the wheat prices were still rather high. Like the story says, production and local weather should reduce any supply, which means that the glut will soon be over. There is very little in the shape of good clean impulse waves, so the 5 waves in Minor degree are diagonals. Large degree diagonals do happen, and many end with a zigzag ride to new highs.

I looked back further than 1980, with the potential for a 4th wave bottom in late 1999. Do you think the sun has any effect on global wheat production? It sure does as wheat prices could be used like a canary in a coal mine. In 1980 wheat prices peaked along with the solar cycle peak. Then wheat prices went sideways and down, but not before wheat prices peaked, at the bottom of the 1996 solar cycle.

From early 1996 wheat prices crashed and then soared in a wild ride, peaking  once again in early 2008. This tells us that wheat prices retreat when we get a start to another solar cycle. Even though it alternates, there are just too many peaks and gullies, when wheat prices were repelled or attracted like a magnet.

This will be very interesting to see if what wheat is showing us, is just another correction. Wheat prices could soar in the next 3-4 years, as it may take that long before solar cycle #24 ends. Wheat is not going to soar because of man-made global warming, it’s going to soar because of the solar cycles.

The bearish phase from the early 2008 top, is just a bit over 8 years long, which is pretty close to a Fibonacci number. I love the even Fibonacci numbers as they can supply good turning dates, to large bull market and even bear market runs. 

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Solar Cycle #24 Update

 

 

Many people have done the research regarding the connection between the sun and our markets on earth. Yet sadly just as many times, they ignore or give up on the study. I originally got the idea from EWI, so they were fully aware of it, but they dumped all knowledge of it when the solar cycle was at a bottom in 2009.

 I have seen many important wave counting failures, leaving the wave analyst in the dust, and  ill prepared for what happen next.  Since they were at a Primary degree wave one bottom in 2009, they failed to see a massive bull market coming.   They failed to see the 2009-2016 bull market coming while all the contrarians were screaming “Buy” and all the insiders in stock companies were also on a buying rampage.  Insiders don’t buy on emotional whims, as when they buy they have a long term investing outlook. This is another reason why wave counters failed to see a huge bull market coming in 2008-2008. 

So when 2021 rolls around and the world of wave analysts are still bearish, then they will be in yet another major bear trap!  

 

 

The start of solar cycle #24 is the real fundamental reason behind the stock bull market. I’m sure this will all happen again once we reach the bottom around the 2021 time period. I have added at some solar cycle peaks and bottoms that corresponded well with turnings. The best one yet was when gold topped in 2011 and stock mania took off.  Yes, this stock mania has run since 2011, and what we’ve had was a panic into stocks since the US elections.  

“Panics are the emotional mass realization of reality”, which I quote from the EWP book. It also works on the way down like the 2008 stock market crash did. 

On any solar cycle decline the amount of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions pick up in speed, and some of the biggest volcanic explosions came in the decline of the solar cycles. About a year after a big volcanic eruption the world, temperatures drop. 

 

In short, this world has nothing to fear from global warming, and CO2, the real problems will start if we hit a few years of global cooling. 

 

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Sunspot Number Progression Update.

cycle22cycle23cycle24big

 

This is a big chart of what the solar cycle looks like, with three of the past peaks showing.  We can go back 100 years and in all cases except one, a market bullish phase started on the upswing of a new solar cycle. The lows in the solar cycles coincide very well with lows in the stock markets. 

 

solar-cycle-sunspot-number

 

For a good chart with more technical recordings, then this chart is a better one, as the black dots represent a finishing month. We can clearly see that the solar cycle is far from finished, as it declines more at turtle speed, then at rabbit speed.

The rise in solar activity is faster, as it takes less time up than down. One scientist measured the ratios and it came very close to the Fibonacci sequence. (.382 for the up cycle, and .618 of the time length of the down cycle)

In life, in the markets, and in the universe you cannot get away from the Fibonacci sequence. About 10 years ago I switched my brain over to all Fibonacci even numbers, and use them to calculate years from top to bottoms or even top to top. Just using even numbers does not require  you to sit in front of a computer screen.  For now we still should have 4 years to go when we get close to the major bottom of solar cycle #24.

When we get close I will need to hunt up the site that tracks the turnings, when the new sunspots start to poke through again. The polarity will be switched giving us the clue that the next solar cycle is starting to arrive.  Many scientists will be talking about it early as well, so we should have lots of warning that a turning is due.

 

sunspot_cycles_1926-2003

 

Here we have a simple chart of how the solar cycles affect the fundamentals of the economy and the stock market. If we look back to 1932 we also had a bottom of a solar cycle, followed by a 5 year boom in stocks.  1932 is what I call the start of Cycle degree wave zero, or the SC degree wave two. The majority of wave analysts, have the 1932 bottom, as SC  degree wave 4, which I say is completely wrong.   There are several main reasons why! I don’t think big 4th wave bottoms produce depressions, they sure can produce recessions. The other big reason is that any 5th wave that would follow will never extend as long as it did, and it would not be so well formed.

Besides the book tells us that wave 3’s should always be the longest and first waves are usally the shortest.  From the 1932 bottom, we are still in Cycle degree, but 2021 should give us a Fibonacci 89 year time period, from one low to the next stock market low.

The argument will be around the 1970’s bear market, as the majority of wave analysts counted that time period out, as Cycle degree wave 3 and 4! I sure did and it took me over a decade of counting before I started to clue in that Cycle degree wave 4 was not stuck in the 1970’s. 1975 and 1976 was also another major stock market bottom, matching the bottom in another solar cycle as well.

The 70’s time period looks like a huge bear market, but in fact it is easy to fit into a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 wave count base, producing another 5 waves up in a mega bull market. I believe the markets will never fall back to the 70’s price level in any major higher degree, but I’m sure they will keep making that forecast for the next hundreds of years.

 

djia-2016-3

 

My work is specifically dedicated to finding, confirming and keeping all Cycle degree positions first. It is mathematically impossible to move into any SC degree, before all 5 Cycle degree positions are found. Not just found, but also confirmed. I want all the Cycle degree locations to last forever, and yes, they can be spread 30 years apart, like the USD and even the Nikkei. Since 2000 we now have a total of 3 major peaks in the DJIA. Not getting these 3 peaks sorted out, will throw every wave count that will ever follow, into question.

Any wave analysts that forgets the past will be doomed to repeat it, and at a bare minimum, we have to get the last 100 years figured out right.

Missing a major bull market with wave analysis should be unacceptable, and those that had a Primary degree wave 1 bottom in 2009, have to trash their entire wave counts, and go back to 1929 and count again.  Cosmetic wave counting will not work, as it is impossible to trade on cosmetically created wave counts.

 

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DJIA Daily Chart New Record High Review: Another Bull Trap?

 

ymy00-nov-10-2016

 

This peak may be the peak that will go down in history as the major top in the markets. Yes, that all sounds great, but when it concerns any Elliott Wave structures, we can always get an expanded pattern. Our wave counts will be all over the map, if we do not even look at, or know about any expanded patterns. These expanded patterns happen frequently when it comes to any wave three peaks and any “B” wave type correction as well.

Since the election results were known, the stock market took off like a horse bolting from the gates. Most of it was all the buy stops getting hit, which were put up by the bears. Instantly, the same crowd that was bearish turn into stock bulls on the way up.

This vertical move, which cannot be maintained, must die or give us a major correction. The straighter the move, the faster it is actually going. This move is behaving more like a “C” wave than an impulse.  Since the 2015 bottom we can see that we had about 4 obvious spikes to the downside, which all turned into bullish runs.  In the last couple of days these spikes have now inverted. (C waves pointing up) This is not a good sign, and I sure would not want to be caught on the bullish side for any reason.  

There are many that are wondering how Donald Trump’s 4 year stint will do to the markets. All I can say is that he may be a president that will be in a Cycle degree crash, lasting for four years or so. With this surprise election result, this did not change any of my big bearish wave counts, except the short term wave patterns.  

The long term bullish phase in commodities, has also not changed with this election, and chances are extremely high that Donald Trump will confirm a Cycle degree wave IV crash! 2020 will be the next election, which fits very well with a major stock market turning point. 2021 is also the time period for the start of a new solar cycle, so you do not want to be bearish with the crowd at that time. All bearish wave counts at that time will get trashed, as we could get a 5-8 year bull market during the rise of solar cycle #25.

 

sunspot_cycles_1926-2003

 

Here is a good little chart that shows how much the sun cycles effect everything on this planet. Many have done this type of research, but ignore it for the most part. The 2008 bottom of the solar cycle is clear evidence you do not want to be bearish when the sunspot activity starts up. In 2008 all the bearish wave counts were crushed because of solar cycle #24. 

 

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The Crashing Of Solar Cycle #24

 

IMG_2542

 

In the last few days, I have noticed that the sun is blank with no sunspot activity, even today we still had no sunspots active. This may have been going on for longer as the chart below sure shows a strong dip. 

 

solar-cycle-sunspot-number

 

If we get too many spotless suns, then this Solar Cycle #24 will keep on crashing. If this keeps going at this speed, we would think that we will have an early Solar Cycle bottom. Just like back in 2006-2007 we had the  sunspot activity increase several times before it died, followed by a long drawn out bottom forming progress. This should still happen. The power of solar Cycles is an Elliott Wave terminator which will destroy any bearish and bullish wave counts we can dream up.  

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Gold And Solar Cycles

 

sc24-June-18-2016

 

I will use this solar cycle chart many times as it is updated more frequently. The black dots are the end of the month points, which makes the entire last rally during the month of May.  All the patterns you see are very similar to Elliott Wave patterns with one big difference. The difference is that the solar cycle goes up and it always comes down to zero again.  They say it is an 11 year cycle, but bottom to bottom can be anywhere up to 13-14 years long. 1996 to late 2008  was about 12-13 years, and if we use another 13 years, the next low could be close to 2021. Another way to look at it, is that the sun has a heartbeat of 9 beats every 100 years. 

The chart above only points to about 2020 as our next bottom, but we have to be open that it can to be a year or so out. When the new solar cycle starts then we should look for the polarity of the new sunspots to switch.

Going back up to the 2000 peak, we had several key asset classes (gold and Oil) that were pointing south, while stocks were pointing north with the dot com bubble. The 1980 peak in gold also matches the solar cycle, but then it was gold pointing up and stocks pointing down. In 1980 the solar cycle repelled the price of gold, as the markets started their big bullish run to the bubble top in 2000. 

I have labelled a few peaks and valleys, where some extreme turnings took place with gold, oil and stocks. I like to say that the solar cycle repels or attracts the price of gold in an alternating fashion. In 2000 the solar cycle started to reverse and started to push or pull the price of gold up, and of course stocks proceeded to implode.  The next 2007 peak for stocks ended well down the solar cycle, as stocks crashed during the solar cycle bottom  in late 2008. 

Gold hit its peak in 2011 right along with the first big solar spike, stocks were facing down at that time, but then they started a stock mania run that lasted until 2015, for now.  With a  bunch of wild corrections thrown in to confuse all of us wave counters, as we were chasing this elusive wave 2 up in Primary degree.  It should have only lasted a year at best, but the stock market kept on soaring.   Sure, it’s easy to see this in hindsight, but on the flip side wouldn’t the past be the place to look how the cycles can repeat. The up phase of a solar cycle reverberates through the entire economy as it affects everything. 

In general, solar cycles go up much faster than they ever come down, which can divide into the Fibonacial time ratio of (.382 years up to, .618 years down) Solar cycle #24 above, is one of the smallest on record with double peaks. Usually they have the secondary peak travel lower, but in this cycle the secondary peak traveled higher.  Even now there is very little sunspot activity as I only saw 2 the last time I looked.

That secondary peak was one of the best looking inverted flats that I have ever encountered, complete with an ending diagonal on its tip.  It wasn’t rocket or solar science, but I knew the last solar cycle peak had already completed.

The big thing to stress is that we should never ignore or be oblivious to the solar cycles, especially if you have any Elliott Wave knowledge. 

The last thing you want,  is to have a bearish stock wave count,  when the next solar cycle reverses. If by chance the DOW ever hit 6000 or 5999 and we are still being brainwashed by stories of  the DOW  going to 1000 or even DOW 400,  then I will say now that your bearish wave count is going to get busted. Besides, you will have no time to mentally prepare for the next big bull market, and you will be left behind holding a bag of wooden nickels.

  

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WTI Crude Oil Cycle Degree Review

 

CLY00-April-27-2016

I thought it would be good to review my bigger picture in oil, and I assure you I do not follow the SC or GSC degree crowd. I follow or look for the Cycle degree sequence. The only high degree wave count that may be completed is my Cycle degree wave 3 at the 1980 peak. 

The crash low in 1986 (Primary degree “A” Wave) was a bit above $10 with another major low in 1998-1999, also a bit above the $10 price level. It is very important to remember that the 1999 low was a higher low than the 1986 bottom was. This entire crude oil wave count contains no WXY waves as I would rather look at it from a diagonal or triangle perspective. In this case the Primary degree “B” wave contains a triangle which may have completed the Intermediate degree “D” wave bottom, in January 2016. 

I believe we are heading up on an “E” wave bull market and we have a long way to go to break some old highs. Any wave action above the $115 price level will do, but I do not rule out a potential double top. We are looking very far ahead and many things have to happen for it to come true. Right now on a gold/oil cash ratio we are a bit above 28:1, which makes oil still very cheap when compared to gold. 

 

Oil-Recessions-March-20-2016

Many have done this type of research, but it seems that many of the oil peaks corresponded with recessions. So it still may take sometime before the next recession is upon us.  

 

ssn_predict_l

  Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom could still take until solar cycle #24 finishes around 2021. The first peak you see in this solar cycle matches the 2011 peak in gold, but the 2000 peak matches the bottom in gold and oil. The exact opposite happened in 1980 when the solar cycle and commodities also peaked out. 

CLM16-April-27-2016

This is the intraday wave count with many of the waves overlapping just enough to not call them pure impulse waves, but I will count them as if they were impulse waves for now. I have started on Minuette degree, but will adjust when it becomes necessary. I think we are still far away from any potential “A” wave that I need, but even then the “B” wave correction can hide itself.  If we get a strong obvious correction, then we would know that we are at the half way point of the entire bullish phase.  Right now I am looking for a potential 4th wave correction, but extensions can delay all that. We are also coming up to the end of the month when corrections or trend reversals can happen. 

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