Tag Archives: Silver

Silver Daily Chart Update!

 

One thing about silver is that it walks to a different drummer than what the gold pattern has created. The same “B” wave triangle was a rising “B” wave. Even the gold stock ETFs were pointing down much like silver, and not gold.  When we pay too much attention to gold, we are being brainwashed and ignore silver in the process. This silver cash is only about $1.80 away from breaking a new record low which would be below $13 which is a Fibonacci number. In order for silver to be very bullish, it would have to surpass and exceed all those inverted zigzags I show presently.

Any triangle always forces a wave position to change degree levels, which can be 1 or even 2-degree level changes. In this case an Intermediate degree, and a Primary degree bottom at the same time.

The US dollar hasn’t died yet, as it just wants to keep pushing higher, keeping all gold related investments subdued at best.  Silver had a very choppy rally that defies any impulse specifications, so I see this as just another bear market rally fooling the majority of investors.

What the majority of gold investors don’t understand is that the 2011 peak was a 30-year “mania” commodities peak counting from the 1980 inflationary peak, with a ± 1-year error rate.  So 2011 was 30 years plus 1! Your next Supercycle commodities peak will come in 2041, which I will never see, but my grandkids will certainly live and invest in.

Diagonal wave structures dominate commodities as they have been doing that for the entire Submilllennium degree wave 3. I have created a template and an idealized chart in a very large format like 24×55 inches. 2 for diagonal wave patterns and 2 for the impulse wave patterns. These were professionally scanned by wide format scanners so the originals will print out 24×55 inches if so desired. Postage size charts just won’t cut it with me, as even 8×10 printouts are better than the shit we inside our computers.

 

 

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Silver Weekly Chart: A Double Bottom And A Bear Trap!

 

I will no longer count out Minute degree waves unless I need them to clarify a pattern. I think an SLV bear trap is in, and the fear or threat of a further decline is not going to happen. Markets never reward fear, as it takes courage to do the opposite thing. Technically the 5 waves I was expecting have already started. I only have some real money Silver units in my Forex trading account as the rest is all with GDX and options.

The only way that silver and gold will fly, is when the US dollar turns south. In the end, it will always be about the currency markets and their wild swings. Last week many of the COT reports came out with some extremes, in all those currencies inverse to the US dollar. We can argue for years where silver will end up at, but that all depends on what that 2011 peak was all about. That 2011 peak was a gold&silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years! It is very easy to double check and count backward 3, 30-year cycles, starting from the 2011 peak, plus or minus, one year!

Commodities do not follow the normal idealized patterns as they are all connected with zigzag type waves. Why do you think that the bear market with silver in the 1990s is so choppy?  It’s because it was a very drawn out flat type of a running pattern between a much bigger zigzag in Primary degree.  It could even work as a triangle as we did move into one higher degree in 2011.

Every person can pinpoint their birth year in this 30-year cycle, as I was born year one after the 1950 gold peak. Between each cycle, it will end up with major lows, but then gold and silver become a “long-term investment” once they are crushed in price.  We will have to wait until 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to poke through the sun’s northern latitudes,  you don’t want a bearish bone left in your body when the poles on the sun start to flip. Solar cycle upswings act like bear market terminators. It would also be a good time to start a business, as you will have the power of the sun at your back!

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Silver 2011-2018 Review

I stretched my weekly chart to 1500, so we can see back to that 2008 crash bottom. The Death Cross has already happened just like it was on a daily chart. I have only used two indicators, Two parrell lines and one 50-200-day MA. We can slice and dice any wave positions, but the fact remains that the 2011 peak was a 30-year cycle peak of a gold&silver mania bull market top. 1980 was the previous 30 year mania peak which also burst producing close to a 20 year bear market in gold and silver.

The wave counting experts ignore silver most of the time becuase they are blinded by the glitter of gold as its charts pointed up,  while silver pointed down. Silver is a better leading indicator where gold is going to go to, than the other way around.  No gold or silver stock ETF confirmed any part of gold’s breakout attempt, which obviously has failed so far. The majority of investors are always wrong at the extremes and if investors think fundamentals will send silver soaring, then they have a nasty surprise coming their way. A Cycle degree mania bubble does not get corrected in a little 4-5 year bearish phase,  least of all with just one soft landing. The correction will still last until about 2021 which would make gold and silver a 10 year bear market!

I’m a small trader not an investor, as I would never knowingly build a heavy long position, when the entire world is sitting on Death Crosses! Below $13 is the big silver number to beat, and will be the price level that confirms the last 2-3 year bullish phase was all a smoke and mirror bull market. The angle of silvers decline should turn steeper as it has done many times before. Silver also has a tendency to slice through any Fibonacci support even if it may be just for a short time peiod.

Deflation is the real threat folks, as we come off this hyped up, pumped up world of inflated prices. What most silver investors don’t know is that the world population fertility rate is crashing and has been crashing, as the major boomer populations start to die off in record numbers. Dieing boomers are “Permanent Sellers” of real estate, with smaller and smaller new generations being born following every stock market crash.

I’m very bearish on this market until I see that a major support price level has been reached! The 2008 crash low or a bit lower, is where we should expect for all this to settle. By that time all my short positions will be closed off, with an impending huge bullish phase during 2019! This will also be a big fake, or bear market rally, and it will be the very last chance for metal investors to unload at near a bubble top.

Conventional wave counting will not work in the commodities world commodities are connect together with huge zigzags lasting over 40 years. Our next zigzag decline is far from over and this fall may only be part one of a 3 part move. (A, B, C,) in Primary degree.

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Silver Weekly And the $13 Crossing.

On quick posts I will not fill in every little fricken wave, as I count during the day all the time with my finger and eyes!  When you see any wave counting analysts fill in every little wave then that wave count is feeding you a bunch crap! I may be nasty about this but I’m sugar coating it for sure.  The gold bulls are ignoring silver and it is just $2.50 or so away from a new bear market low. The magic number is $13 and as soon as silver hits below $13, then the 3 year bull market comes to an  end!  The gold bulls call it a bull market!

I call it a bear market rally and they always have to retrace themselves.  It may take another month and when it does how do you justify silver to go to new record lows and gold soar? Give me a break! It will be silver that will drag down gold. We have a Cycle degree zigzag to go through so silver could hit $8 and when it gets between to the Cycle degree wave 4 low then silver and gold bullion will be in a major Buy&Hold that will last to the next SC degree wave three top in 2041 and 2071, and 2101. $400 for gold.  I can give you the two most important wave positions for gold and silver but I always have to visualize it first for months and then draw it out by hand and white board to make sure it has a very tight fit. 2101 is Submillennium wave 3 top in gold and silver. So you can understand how important it is to test Cycle degree wave 3 as it will be the base for the next hundred years that the younger generation of wave analysts may be able to use.  The 30 year cycle is real and it is so reliable you could set a watch on it.  Mind you it would have to be a grandfather clock!

I have to see my patterns first before I count them out, as wave counting is only the secondary act to confirm what you see.

If the entire crop of wave analyst do not see a bear market rally in silver then it is a good idea to short their views. The market is not always right, as it’s a liar and a cheat, and it will rip you off with it’s mood swings. It is the wording that I use when somebody says that the “markets are always right”

It is the job of Cycle degree wave analysis to become the bullshit detector which I think it does an excellent job.

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Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2018 Update.

The silver bulls think that silver is in a bull market, yet all my best wave counts and indicators like the Death Cross tell me an opposite story. The sideways decline in silver is doing the opposite of what gold has done and at this point, silver only has to fall about $2.90 and it will break to new record lows. Below $13  silver will have confirmed that this so called bull market is nothing but a fake, or a bear market rally. All bear market rallies retrace themselves and have been doing that since the 2011 top. We are in a 5 wave decline and we are not finished by a long shot. A crash of more than $3.00 will end all this silly debate between those who can tell what a bear market rally is and those that can’t. The majority will never want to take the time to learn. Every single counter rally in this silver bear market is just a mini bear market rally and they all have been completely retraced. Each mini bear rally attracted the gold bulls back but their bullish views were quickly dashed as being wrong!

Folks the majority always get fooled and in the case of the 2016 top they are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree rally!  If they are so easily fooled then a huge silver “B” wave bull market in Primary degree will fool many more.  Are you ready for silver to crash to $8.00 because if your not your going to miss the biggest counter rally in silver that you have seen since the 2011 peak. I’ve been actively planning my future bull ride already with my friend but I will use GDX for that.

What we see above is called “Waiting” for the trade to come to me, as everyone else chases bull markets which I never do. When you chase a bull market your too late already and those that are late will already have missed huge gains. We had a huge Death Cross and then a Golden Cross and then several little crossings which should end with a small Death crossing when silver plunges. In the weekly chart this looks much worse, and I for one see silver as a short bet not a long bet. I would “NEVER” knowingly park my bullish positions on-top of a Death Cross. When you do your are going to suffer huge losses very quickly when the bottom gives out.

The world is going to deflate when the big one hits so no gold, Silver or oil can handle that and they will suffer the same fate as the markets. This has all happened before in the 20o8 crash, where everything crashed together in a deflationary spiral. 2018 is also a very special year for earth as it hits it’s 30 year cycle, of slowing rotation.

This rotation slowdown they say will cause massive earth quakes as the earth twists and turns. The metals all run on this cycle as major peaks are 30 years apart. Cycle degree wave 5 will not finish until 2041 and I still need to work on what the price of silver will be by that time. Short answer is $89 for silver!  In gold Supercycle degree wave three will be about $2225.

I also use the 100 year cycle as a forecasting tool. I time travel back to 1919 and look forward. 1919 was the peak of a major silver bullish phase so being long at that time would shred all our gold and silver investments.  Some of the greatest shorting opportunities are also going to come, so if you can only bet one way then you are running at 50% efficiency or less.

I look for high-efficiency trades for myself and my friends and they are found in 5 wave runs. Looking for trades that will contain any Minor degree 5 wave run should never be missed as they can be great winners if you can ride the bull!  The object is to find your personal best in a single trade and then try and beat it. If you try to beat the market it will surely come back and beat you up! 🙂

I’m short gold stock ETFs and have no intention of freaking out and selling in a panic. As long as I have funds in active real money positions, I’m constantly testing my wave positions with real money.

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Silver Monthly Chart: Death Cross Countdown!

I have personally dealt more with silver than gold on the street level which I will talk more about later down this page.  Silver is a prime example what a diagaonal bull market and bear market really looks like. The 1980 peak was an “A” wave peak in Primary degree followed by a Primary degree bear market that looks like it could have ended after a running triangle or real bad running zigzag. Diagonals in bear markets distort, so we have to remember that as well. Silver just barely squeaked into a new record high on a “C” wave bull market before,  it to collapsed with the 2011 peak at about the $48 price peak. At the 2011 peak $200-$300 silver forecasts were being made. That is just a regurgitated forecast of the 1970’s so there is nothing new with those two forecasts.

Our bear market in silver is not finished, no matter how much the silver bulls keep insisting it is!  Silver is in a 5 wave diagonal decline and needs a final plunge to land at another “A” wave in Primary degree. In short this is a Cycle degree 4th wave correction containing a zigzag with three Primary degree moves. (A,B,C)  I could have the perfect wave count and the majority will never use it to buy low! I’m sure the public will be freaking out as silver plunges to new record lows. You have to be prepared well in advance and I’ve already been planning for months.

Silver bullish investors do not realize that they are bullish standing on a platform that is about to collapse, and I can scream as loud as I want and nobody will listen.  They listen to the screaming bullish move scenarios first.

During the start of the 2001 bullish cycle we can see a Golden Cross (GC) Crossings are always delayed or lagging.  It’s just a matter of a trigger and silver will implode in price.

 

I have a silver 10 ounce  Canadian Coin that I have used to bet with and I hope silver prices will crash as I will buy some more of these beautiful coins. They are heavy coins but glisten when in the light.  My coin is locked in a bet,  until gold crashes below $1047  The house (friend) pays me a 10 ounce silver coin. If I had more coins I would take on more bets.

All this could take well into the fall to play out, so have patience and let the trade come to you. I never chase a bull market or double down in a bear markets, as those are real emotional acts.

Laying down big shorts after it has turned down will cost you big time with the counter rally and most of the time you end up with nothing or a loss.

We are going to see some extreme price swings and as long as we buy bullion at the bottom of crashes we bring down the average.

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Silver Monthly Chart: Waiting For The Death Cross!

On the weekly and daily charts the Death Cross in Silver has already happened. Going back to a monthly chart shows us a different picture.  Any downside at all in silver will force the 50 day SMA into the 200 day line, and next thing you know we have a very bearish condition in silver, along with gold/oil and other currencies.

Down at the bottom in 2004 the Golden Cross started with the 50 day shooting up.  Look how far silver went on just one Golden Cross. If we keep the same sequence the Death Cross should come next.  The 50-200 SMA crossings are all lagging indicators, but I would say they work extremely well as confirm indicators.

Many are confinced silver is in a bull market and they are all waiting for a breakout heading north.  Sorry, but the markets will never do what the majority want, so it must head south instead.  When we are in a long position, but things do not progress as you would like, then quickly switch to look for the bearish signals, and see what makes more sense.

No matter what, the markets are “always right”.  It’s our opions or premises that are always wrong. In order for this bull market to just be in a bear market rally, silver has to confirm it by completley retracing its entire bullish move.  A storm is forming in the EU zone as their money printing habits have force people to flee the Euro.

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Silver Daily Chart: The Short Term Bearish Case Review

The mass media has been brainwashing us with gold bullish stories and some even have a $1550 gold price target like I had. Except for one problem and that is silver refuses to play along and has consistently lagged behind gold for the past year. Silver should have hit $20 if it joined the gold rush, but silver did not follow through.  The experts come up with the idea that silver is going to wake up and surprise us all, by playing “catch up” to gold.

The idea of silver catching up is a myth by any stretch of the imagination which has been used as an excuse why silver is lagging.  Back in 2011 they were waiting for gold stocks to “catch up ” to gold but they never did. Silver has a year long trend that has produced at least three sets of Head&Shoulder patterns, which are hard to ignore. If we were in a much bigger bullish phase, then each one of the right shoulders would lift the top trend line higher.

Silver has refused to do this as after each right shoulder the silver market has pushed down. This is the sign of a bear, not a bull. We also have a sideways wedge with silver getting very close to slicing the rising trend line in two. At $16.10 our present little rally will be confirmed as a bearish rally. Silver still has two very critical bottoms to retrace, and they are pretty close to each other. $15.50 and $15.20 could also get retraced. When silver retraces the $15.20 price level, then from my perspective silver jumps back into the unfinished bearish territory. From todays levels, silver still has to crash well below $14 which is only about $3 below present prices.

Silver has no problem crashing $3 at a crack so that could happen in rapid succession. $13 is also a great Fibonacci number. Below that $14 price level silver will have completely retraced its so called bull market, but then it would also be ready for a major new stronger bullish phase.

Sure, I’m a silver bull, but if the market is telling me that the bearish phase is not finished, I want to be aware of it. I’m also fully aware that I am going against the mainstream media bullish bias, but I have been in those situations many times before.

I was very bearish when experts were calling for a $200 silver price, from the 2011 peak, but their forecasts went south instead.

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Silver Daily Chart Update: Bull Trap?

This is a daily chart but I have increased the bar count from a normal 500 to 1500 which stretches this daily chart. This way the top wave 2 in Intermediate degree is showing.  Silver is not even close to looking like gold and I don’t think it is going to catch up. Catching up rarely happens as silver works much better as a leading indicator to what gold is going to do.

Since the 2016 peak, silver has executed a grinding bear market, which does work as a triangle in a “B” wave. Silver also has a wedge that is horizontal, further compounding the forecast in which way silver can go.  We do have a few waves that show higher lows, but that could be just a “D” wave.  Short term gold and silver can fall right along with crude oil.  The fact that silver has been struggling to gain bullish momentum also helps any bearish outlook.  Any “C” wave, crash, can happen so fast it will surprise us all.  I don’t like surprises, so it’s always a good idea to look for them before they happen.

If the bearish 4th wave scenario is true, then the silver market has to crash to new lows, even by a very small amount.

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Silver Daily Chart Update: Starting Another Bullish Phase?

Recently silver has been declining until today as silver woke up! This daily chart is vastly different than gold. Sure, they both do go up, but they are vastly different wave counts. From mid 2016 silver has pattern swings that overlap every wave next to it. To put it bluntly, there are only very small 5 wave sequences which turn into zigzags and then reverse trends.

For the correction down to July 20, 2017, a triangle is my favorite, but a very complex diagonal will also work. The last drop into mid 2017 has also ended with a clean zigzag, which happen in the diagonals as well as triangles.  Once we look carefully from the 2017 bottom, (B Wave) we had two higher lows which is the sign of a bull market or big bullish phase still in progress.

Higher lows are created by crashing flats or zigzags and in a bigger bullish phase zigzags retrace everything from where it started from. There is a big zigzag that has not been completely retraced as silver would have to go above $18.20 to do that. Above $20.80 would be the ultimate prize.

Even at $18.50 silver could head south again, but we will deal with that if and when the time arrives. In the last week I have handled a few of those new 10 ounce silver coins and they are some of the best looking coins I have seen. Silvers recent correction looks like it can contain an expanded flat, so I better start the count as the first stage to zigzag.

In order for that to get confirmed I would need silver to head to $17.80. On this daily chart, we have two major price hurdles to clear before any bullish move is completed. Sure, it all has been slow going, but when a “C” wave gets unleashed, the short players will get burned.

I’m not concerned about any rate increases that may still be coming this year as that is a sign of impending inflation, and it’s when gold and silver is supposed to shine. Sure silver and gold can fluctuate wildly in price, but it has an intrinsic value to it, where it can’t fall to zero like “any” paper  or  cyber tech asset can.

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Silver Daily Chart Crash Review: Last Chance

Silver is on its last chance to finish displaying a zigzag crash. Any new record low below $15.20 kills this wave count, so it will be critical for the next few weeks. There is a rally starting to happen, but the rally is questionable starting out. Either way we are heading for a third bottom, if silver breaks. Since the August 2016 peak, silver has been in a bearish phase that has very few sets of impulse waves in it.

To put it mildly, “Choppy as Hell”! 😯  Even though silver seems like its going to fall into the abyss, that doesn’t mean it will. Who cares about silver when Bitcoin dominates the news in the financial world. The seasoned contrarians know better, that when the public hates an asset class, then they should be buying at depressed prices. 

I lowered the wave degree back down by one degree, just in case we are in a diagonal 5th wave. I have done the same for gold as the 2011 top, may not be a Cycle degree top like I have been using. It could be a  diagonal wave 3, in Intermediate degree. Back in late 1999 they hated silver at that time as well, and look what happen to silver after that!  They hated gold even more back in those days, as anybody that had a warm body was selling gold and silver. 

Any “C5” wave bull market from a zigzag  still amazes me because they can soar so disproportional to the “A” wave.

For the rest of the year I will use this degree level in silver. I have already started the same idea with gold, which I will post this weekend.

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Silver Crash Daily Chart Update

Silver only has pennies to go before it breaks my bullish wave count. The next best wave pattern is that another zigzag is forming, but we still need a bit longer C5 wave length, to make a better fit.  I sure don’t rule out any running type of a move as well, so in the short term silver can remain volatile. 

What must not happen in silver, is that the July 2017 bottom also gets completely retraced. If this happened then the $14.60 price level could get hit and the Intermediate degree “B” wave must also be moved.  

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Silver Intraday Update: Fighting For A Bottom?

At this time it seems like $16.85 produced some resistance, pushing silver back down and the possibilities of a new bearish low. We have about 30 cents to play with before any bullish wave count I have will get trashed again.  Since the early October spike all gaps have been closed off, and it seems like silver has broken away from the clutches of those Algorithmic monsters running loose on the internet. Sure, it may be science fiction, but wave counting would be pretty boring if we don’t have an imagination. 

We still have alternate wave counts that can surprise us, but at this time I like to think we have a potential reversal that is going to happen. On a silver daily chart this decline looks like a single spike to the downside, which fits well into a potential wave 2. Gold is also looking a bit like a straight down move, so in that respect  silver and gold seem to confirm each other in the short term. In the bigger scope of things silver is on a much different wave count than gold.

Silver turned in July of 2017, while gold turned in mid December 2016. This is just about a full 7 month difference between the two asset classes. This will throw wave counts for a loop if we ignore the real bottoms.  

Silver’s real low was way back in 1993, but yet the majority of wave analysts ignored this little fact and lumped it in with the gold bull market. So far $16.57 seems to be holding, but we need more evidence that a bigger rally is in progress. 

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Silver Intraday Bearish Phase Update

The threat of this Silver correction lasting longer and going deeper exists. Even gold has the same pattern so it’s not just silver that is acting this way. Silver has diverged from gold in that they are many months apart from their respective bottoms this summer. This tells me that silver is in a big bearish rally that should still have lots of room to move up. Last week the commercials with gold and silver added to their long positions which is a bullish sign at least in the short term.  With North Korea threatening hydrogen bomb destruction, it is very understandable that investors could seek safe-haven at any time. 

When I was a teen nuclear bombs were being set off around the world, spreading radiation into the ice sheets which also showed up in the wine being produced at that time.

In the mean time the US dollar commercial positions have switched, where they are now net long on the US dollar, and net short the Canadian dollar. 

The USD net long ratio is not that large and we need a bigger net long position before any real concerns are valid. 

I would love to see a zigzag or a flat correction to play out in silver as that will help to keep the bullish forecasts alive. Silver has come very close to my target price level, but the pattern has not. In my world pattern over rides price, just like it does when we look at any idealized chart.

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Silver Intraday Crash Review: Has It Gone Far Enough?

This morning the intraday low touched $16.84 and has now turned up a bit. As much as I would like to see the end of this correction, we have to wait and see what the next rally in silver will bring us. Let’s say that silver starts a rally, but this rally is very choppy. It heads back up to $17.40 and at this point it could be another 4th wave rally and another 5th wave down would have to follow. 

That would be a potential “A” wave of a bigger and longer correction, and we would not even be a third of the way through this correction. 

Between gold and the silver daily charts they have diverged from each other, to where the corrections are no longer acting in sync. Gold hit its corrective bottom in December of 2016, while silver bottomed in July of 2017. This is about a 7 month difference between the two which is a big spread or divergence. 

Silvers correction fits better into a triangle at this time, which, if true gives us a clue to the end of a potential rally. This potential wave 1-2 correction may be too high of a degree, so we still have lots of room for silver to move up. Many don’t see the difference between the two, but from my perspective, it stands out like a sore thumb which can’t be ignored. Until we get some really crazy expensive ratios, this bull market is still alive.

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Silver Bull Market Intraday Review

After the early August dip, silver recovered, and then roared back in a bullish move, now approaching the $18 price level.  In the big picture silver  is in a diagonal pattern which started way back in 1993. Trying to count silver as an impulse is futile as there are two different types of 5th waves. There is a good chance that another smaller version of a diagonal is forming and the chances for a correction are starting to increase.  Sure it might be still too early but any correction could be fast, sharp and painless. Only the silver bulls will feel the pain, while the contrarians see it as a buying opportunity.

Silver had 3 major dips in August and the dip on the 16th of August would be one of the favorite support areas. ($16.80) I’m sure silver will keep us guessing in the short term, but in the longer scheme of things a decline in the silver price is not the end to the silver bull market. I show we could be getting close to a potential wave 1 in Minute degree but can still be a bit early.  As long as we get a choppy decline the chances are good, that it will be just a correction.  

Most of my updates will be short this week as I still have chart issues that is taking up much of my time.

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Silver Intraday Update! Time For A correction?

From the early August dip, silver has recovered nicely and now has soared to another higher high. This is starting to look like a mini bull trap with a potential finishing 5th wave.  I shifted the degree level by one degree, so we get to start the same degree over again. 

We could just see a very short correction before silver charges up again, but that could be wishful thinking at this time. Gold has made the same basic move, so for this short period of time, gold and silver are in sync. They must have searched for a better drummer that they can both march to.  

Any move to the $16 price level would not surprise me, but it will not happen overnight.I better not say “overnight” too many times, as then the odds increase that it will crash in a flash crash. With algorithms running amok you never know what will happen, so it is always best to keep our options open.

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Silver Intraday Correction Update

From a potential “B” wave bottom in Minor degree, silver surged for most of July. Since then silver has started a correction, which could be finished.  The correction may not be finished just yet, so another plunge below the bottom trend line may still happen.

The correction could be a 4th wave, so another leg up should happen. After the anticipated leg up has completed, then we should be in a new Minute degree wave 1.

As ugly of a correction it was,  silver’s bottom can only fit into a triangle. Any triangle in the “B” wave position is a stark warning that there is one more “Thrust” coming, and once this trust has completed it would also be the end of the bigger bullish phase.   There still is lots of time before we even get close, as it may take until mid or late 2018 before the big bullish phase in silver is done.

If we go back 100 years to late 1918 we know silver peaked, and then imploded into a 13 year bear market, ending around 1932.  Even Steven Jon Kaplan figures the gold/silver bullish phase could last well into 2018, and he is much smarter than me and can read markets far better than any Elliott Wave specialist ever will.

Most of all the other commodities and stock markets also bottomed in 1932, so this time period has significance from my perspective.

I visited my contrarian friend yesterday who also manages other peoples money, and there is no panic in trying to get out of any silver related assets.

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Silver Daily Chart Update

With this daily futures cash chart, we see that we have one ugly of a bearish decline since that mid 2016 peak.  Every bullish wave count I have tried since the January 2017 bottom has failed.  One of the wave counts I can have is a potential triangle decline,  which bottomed in early July 2017. 

If this is true, then there can be no more new lows, and silver has to keep on charging up, passing all the peaks of the silver bearish phase. The real horror  wave count would be that the top in April of $18.60 was the top of another zigzag, which would send silver below the 2016 lows.

The triangle wave count would send a clear signal that any new record highs would also be the last high, before another major crash would then follow. Triangles have a certain finality built in, in that one more thrust can happen, but after the “thrust”  has completed, the shit will hit the fan one more time. 

Any zigzag declining scenario, could be short lived, but then a new bullish phase will start again. Silver has always walked to a different drummer from gold, as since the real bottom in 1993, silver has seen nothing but diagonal wave structures. Counting sliver from this 1993 bottom as impulse waves is futile and just plain wrong, but it seems wave analysts just love to make 5 wave impulse counts everywhere they go. The EWP has two types of 5 wave sequences, but the majority lump them all into impulse waves. 

Buying physical silver bullion is always a good idea when silver is pointing down, but not when it is pointing up. Long term buying at lows, helps make the cost averaging work, but buying at an emotional high does the exact opposite. I use a small amount of silver bars like a savings account. 

At this time SIL the silver miners ETF has held up rather well, and has been on a bit of a rally lately. 

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Silver Intraday False Spike Commentary

I have about 5 different settings I can use for displaying the “type” of the chart. The spike you see above shows up in bar type very well, and when we switch to candlestick the same spike appears.  I think these spikes are high speed algorithm computer generated. In a blink of an eye this spike hits all the sell stops sitting below any price level. I call it the “stop sweeper” as it scoops up your stops, takes your money and takes you out of your bullish position.  

Also at the top we have a very tight range of price moves that I figure spanned a bit more than about  20 cents.  It looks like a miniature bar code.  

 

When I switch to candlestick at this scale, the spike is also very visible and it shows up in green while the other declines show up in red. Gee, sure looks like the algorithms are color blind. 

All this is fine and dandy, but once we switch to line type, in the chart setting, this spike disappears like it never happened. 


Here is the same chart, but switched to line type, and the spike crash is gone. With the price crash gone, our wave count remains bullish.  These big false spikes happen, and they can happen when the trading volume is very thin.  

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Silver Daily Chart Bearish Review

The silver market has trashed all the easy short term bullish wave counts and this morning is at another spike and record low.   Silver has been walking to a different drummer. A new  low in silver has just hit the $15.20 price, and now has started to advance.  From the peak silver has also retraced a bit more than a net 61%, so if a rally is going to start, now would be the time.

Any other type of a move would put the silver bear market in a zigzag decline. We would still need a 4th wave rally now, then followed by another decline to new record lows.  Since the entire bearish phase is extremely choppy, then the decline should  eventually get completely retraced. 

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Silver Daily Chart Review: Up And Away?

Silver started to bottom yesterday and now has soared this morning. This could be the start of the next leg up from a pretty steep, and straight decline.  Another very steep and much longer decline ended in early May which could all work as wave two corrective declines.  

Last month I showed a potential wave 1-2 for the 2016 decline, but there is too high of a chance that the 2016 top was an “A” wave top in Minor degree.  The entire silver bull market going way back to the 1993 bottom can only fit into a diagonal which are zigzags connected together, producing the wild spikes and overlapping patterns, that make up the silver market. We have to search far and wide to see some clean impulse waves, and even then they are small degree moves. 

In silver, I have to keep wave positions on two separate patterns, and the above pattern has an “A” wave top but in Minor degree.  It has to be in Minor degree if the 4th wave bottom is in Intermediate degree. Silver has done this many times in the past, so it will be interesting to see if silver will hold this pattern on a 5th wave.

A few other asset classes also could work as a 5th wave zigzag, so silver is not the only one.  In the long run an “ABC” zigzag bull market is very much the same as a 1-2-3 impulse wave count.  Until wave 3 materializes, we can work both patterns.  When this does happen, other indicators should also start to show up, so it is not just one thing we have to look for when the next major peak hits again. 

Even now silver could roar up as another zigzag to a wave one as well, which would make the present wave 1 peak a bit too early.

I’m sure you have heard of $200 silver forecasts, but since 1980 silver couldn’t even manage to hit $50 never mind $200.  If we are really lucky maybe silver will give us another triple top, around the $49 price level, but until that actually happens, any price forecasts are just mythical numbers thrown out to the public based on fundamental analysts.  

Longer term I’m bullish on silver, and now we need more evidence to keep the silver bull market alive and kicking.   

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Silver Weekly Chart, Elliott Wave Count Review

It would be fantastic if commodities moved just like stocks do, but the sad fact is that they don’t.  Fear dominates everything in commodities, and the massive leverage all commodities have is one of the main drivers of this fear.  This fear creates the wild spikes that flip flop around, like a fish out of water.  

I have been reviewing my larger degree wave counts, as Cycle degree wave 3 for 2011 may have been too aggressive, and therefore too early with the Cycle degree top. The entire silver bull market, which started in 1993, is one of the best examples of a diagonal run that you can find at this time, which keeps any idealized 5 wave impulse on the endangered species list. 

2016 is now a potential diagonal 4th wave in Intermediate degree, and technically we should get another zigzag to new record highs. This is also when a double top could form with only marginal new highs. That scenario would still be far away, so we do have time before we need to make a major decision.   

With silver it will be a real challenge,  as I don’t think I can switch to 5 diagonal waves up in Minor degree at this time. Switching to a wave count that may be marginal, will help to eliminate it, as any far off wave count will surely fail.

These changes do not necessarily distort any long term bullish view I already have, which is a good thing.  Knocking a Cycle degree wave 3 top down to an Intermediate degree wave 3,  is a change of 2 degree levels.

The mid 2016 peak I show as a wave one in Minute degree, but I may have to change that to a Minor degree. Any time we put a wave count up, it is prone to fail sooner or later, but we have to run them until they no longer make sense. 

I may change gold and oil as well, as all my Cycle degree wave 3 positions regarding commodities, need reviewing. 

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Silver Bull Market Intraday Update

I think we had a major bottom on May 9th after which it started another run heading north. Well, not exactly true north, but north east. This has a long way to go and we are not even at any wave one in Minute degree, as we have to build up to it. The first major hurdle that silver has to go above is the wave 1 top at about the $18.70 price level.

I’m sure that would produce some resistance, but if this bullish phase is as strong as I suspect, it should eventually break out and travel much further.  My wave degree will need some adjustment, but that is not a big deal. Eventually we have to review the daily charts to make sure everything still fits together on the bigger scale.

One thing about intraday scale charts is that they disappear, so we can never go back to recount the intraday scale a few years down the road.  I will not commit any logic that we may be thinking that silver is heading to the moon or some other ridiculous $200 price forecast, as this may all be part of a big “D” wave rally.  We have been in the “C” wave bullish phase for months already, and that should continue for the rest of this year.

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Silver Intraday Update: Just A Correction

Silver has started a decline which should be part of a correction as we have some very choppy and overlapping waves. This morning silver also made a nice spike to the downside which at many times can be a  reversal pattern. Tomorrow should tell us more if our present  low holds as a wave 2.   If I set this wave 1 top one higher degree, then silver would have to show some very aggressive bullish moves to make it to a potential wave 3 in Minor degree. 

In the end it should all take us to the same new highs and rise well above that mid 2016 peak.  We need to fill out wave 3-4-5 in Minuette degree, before we hit wave 1 in Minute degree.   This is always easier said than done, but this “C” wave bull market is still alive at this point. 

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SIL, Silver Stocks, ETF Review

 

From the early 2016 bottom, this silver stock related ETF, soared much higher than several of the gold stock ETFs. This also makes it a prime candidate for an Intermediate degree top in August of 2016.  A few days ago, SIL may have bottomed, and if this is the case, then at a minimum SIL would have to clear my wave 1 in Minor degree. 

We also have the waves of this zigzag alternate very well, as this set of 5 waves has so far made bigger physical waves than the early 2017 SIL bullish phase. 

This makes for good alternation and is a very common wave structure. Now SIL just has to make a bunch of slick moves, to help confirm what we are potentially seeing at this time. 

The Gold/Sil ratio this morning calculated out at just above 35:1.  This is not an extreme expensive ratio, as we would have to get closer to 20:1 when SIL becomes overbought again. I have been buying silver bullion for myself, as it works like a savings account very well. 

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Has Silver Crashed Far Enough?

Silver has been crashing, which only contained very small counter rallies. When we look at it from a daily and weekly perspective,  we see it as a pretty straight down pattern. In this case I’m using a Minor degree wave 2 bottom, which would contain 6 degree levels. Even a wave like this would still have many extensions, that could come out of hiding when it is time to do so.  This may not be the time, as we could get a counter rally that no short trader account can withstand the drawdown. 

The “Buy” orders are all bunched up above silver’s present price level, and they can get triggered with computer trading and those pesky critters called Algorithms.  

I have a pretty wild wave count at this time, and it may not last a day, but I have to use it, to help eliminate if it’s wrong.   I may have to knock down the degree level, but for now the degree level is not a concern.   Silver could be off,  on a very strong bullish phase, and it will do everything in its power, to kick anyone off, that thinks they are getting a free ride.

This is also a good example, what silver can do with a decline when it wants to.  Sure, there can be a bit more downside, but I’m anticipating a reversal, as this has the markings of a bear trap.   Silver has a little more than $1.00 of downside room left, before the last support level is exceeded. Just like the horse races, it’s down to the wire!  

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Silver Weekly Chart, 2011-2017 Cycle Degree Review

 

Silver topped out on April, 25, 2011 at the $49.75  Price level. The chances that this was the peak of a diagonal 5th wave terminating at a potential Cycle degree wave III as well.  This wave III in Cycle degree barley exceeded the January 1980 peak of $48.

What followed the 2011 peak sure follows what looks like a 5 wave decline, but so many waves overlap that it only makes sense when I count it as a diagonal set,  of 5 waves down. This all suggests that a Cycle degree zigzag may be in progress and that we eventually will finish off with a “B” wave top in Primary degree.

In a potential big zigzag the last thing I would want to see is that the entire “B” wave rally also ends up with a zigzag.  Sure, we started what looks like a zigzag, but that could be just the leading zigzag to a flat. 3-3-5.  This flat, should not take silver to any new record highs as zigzags can’t exceed the start of wave “A”.

If the 2011-2016 decline was a single completed 3 wave zigzag, then there would be no technical issues that would stop the  “B” wave from traveling to new record highs, by 40% (.382). EWI has also mentioned that in a zigzag the “A” waves tends to be steeper than the “C” wave. I believe alternation can switch this all around, when the “C” wave may end up being steeper.

EWI still believes a depression is coming this time, but I disagree as many of  the major depressions in the past came from wave 2 bases.  I will talk more about this when I review the last 100 years in the DJIA wave pattern.

I track the Gold/Sil ratio as that gives us a clue when Silver stocks become expensive to gold. At present we are sitting at a Gold/Sil ratio of 35.70:1 which is not all that bad at this time.  Now if we hit 20:1 then this silver market could be in big trouble.

Last weeks Market Vane Consensus report showed a 24 month high of 53%, which was matched a few days last week.  This does not suggest any extreme bullish mood regarding silver.  I see this as many seats still left, on this silver bull stagecoach.

The font settings in my editor,  is not allowing to lock in changes, as it seems to always want to revert back to Georgia. I may have to post in Georgia and a 16 font size at this time. 

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Silver Daily Chart, Bullish Phase Review

 

I have complained many times that silver does not confirm many of the moves that gold makes. Trying to force the same wave count onto silver, or trying to turn its bull market into impulse waves, is a futile effort. For years that is exactly what I was doing, until I realized that the entire silver wave structure, is nothing but a crazy diagonal.  Silver also ended its bullish phase in 2011,  after which it started a decline. Sure,  parts of the silver bear market can be a high grade impulse, but in the end this also falls apart.  A double zigzag could actually be part of a bigger triangle, which ended on a Primary degree “C” wave in late 2016. 

What followed this 2016 bottom, was another very wild ride up. Right from the bottom, any perfect impulse wave structure was trashed rather quickly.  Most of the time this is a warning, that any impending rally would be a potential bear market rally, but how big or how long of a bear market rally,  was debatable. 

Still, this 2016 bottom was so bearish, and silver related stocks were so cheap, that a bull market was bound to happen.  This August 2016 top ended with about a $7 net move, after which it started another grinding decline.  For now at least, silver can be part of a “D” wave bull market, which has lots of room to move to the upside. We already have been in the “C” wave part of this bullish phase, and we need 5 waves up in Minor degree to help confirm it.

In the last days of February 2017 silver peaked and started what looks like a straight move down. Second wave corrections can do this, especially in commodities so I see nothing strange about this move. If and when the 4th wave correction comes, this is when we can get a complex pattern that will keep us scratching our heads for many months,  as the 4th wave correction plays out.  Sure, I can be very wrong, but bullish phases are not that easy to kill. They swing from one extreme and then over to the other extreme, which we can measure with Gold/Sil ratios, and other gold stock ratio calculations as well. None of these contrarian indicators are anywhere near extremes, so this bullish phase is alive and well from my perspective.  

Last week only had 50% bulls present, so that alone tells us that many silver bulls are still out there to come in. Silver had a 24 month low of 16% bulls which in this case was another extreme. Any extreme in  the 80% or higher range,  will start to sound off alarms as this silver market would be starting to get overbought. 

This could happen at a “D” wave top, and we know that “D” waves are all bull traps. The majority cannot tell the difference between a real bull market and a big bear market rally, but the wave analysts eventually have to figure it out.  When they do figure it out that silver is in a bull market, then chances are good that the silver bull market is finished! 

First waves and “D” waves can have very little differences in mood,  and about the only way to tell the difference is by “pattern”.  Price never makes a wave count, as the little blue book clearly shows us. (EWP) 

The silver market imploded in 2011 from a giant, “Stock Mania”  bull attack,  not from some government conspiracy that may or may not have been lurking, in the silver market.  This will happen time and time again, as mainstream stocks will always compete with gold and silver.  

In the long term, silver may hit the $27-$30 price range, after which we can run into some very strong resistance. 

 

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Silver Intraday Crash Update.

I believe that this great looking silver crash is a correction and not the start of some super bearish move. I think the best part is yet to come. I moved my Minor degree top over with an extended diagonal zigzag, which places the Minute degree correction not quite in the middle of the decline, followed by a long and skinny “C” wave. If all the technical wave counting is correct or very close, then this would be one of the best wave trading setups this year.

At a minimum, any “ABC” type crash will retrace 100% of its decline, and then add on more legs after it breaks out.  I stress more attention should be paid to 3 wave patterns than any set of 5 waves, as 3 waves dominate the markets at this time.  

Silver is not starting as a pure impulse, but that is to be expected as we have to link all zigzags together in a wave 3 as well. Before I used to panic thinking that all these were false rallies, but I know this is not true.

As you can guess I would have to be very bullish with what I see right now, but we need time to move forward to help confirm it. 

Technically, we should also see waves 3-4-5 show up, after which it can give us another major  high and time to force a decision on us. Many things have to fall into place as well, so it’s not all about any wave count.  Emotions and crowd sentiment is the underlying fundamentals of the EWP, and when we ignore these sentiment indicators we do so at our own peril.  The Futures or Forex markets will show us no mercy, as that is where “fear” dominates at the expense of hope and greed. I know that most fears develop because of over trading, and lack of attention how much of our trading accounts we have used up. There is a big difference in fear, if you only risk $1 out of $100 cash, or betting $50-$60 out of each $100 net cash in your trading account.  Only the guy standing in front of a slot machine will bet everything.  

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