Tag Archives: Silver Bull Market

Silver Daily Chart Update: Starting Another Bullish Phase?

Recently silver has been declining until today as silver woke up! This daily chart is vastly different than gold. Sure, they both do go up, but they are vastly different wave counts. From mid 2016 silver has pattern swings that overlap every wave next to it. To put it bluntly, there are only very small 5 wave sequences which turn into zigzags and then reverse trends.

For the correction down to July 20, 2017, a triangle is my favorite, but a very complex diagonal will also work. The last drop into mid 2017 has also ended with a clean zigzag, which happen in the diagonals as well as triangles.  Once we look carefully from the 2017 bottom, (B Wave) we had two higher lows which is the sign of a bull market or big bullish phase still in progress.

Higher lows are created by crashing flats or zigzags and in a bigger bullish phase zigzags retrace everything from where it started from. There is a big zigzag that has not been completely retraced as silver would have to go above $18.20 to do that. Above $20.80 would be the ultimate prize.

Even at $18.50 silver could head south again, but we will deal with that if and when the time arrives. In the last week I have handled a few of those new 10 ounce silver coins and they are some of the best looking coins I have seen. Silvers recent correction looks like it can contain an expanded flat, so I better start the count as the first stage to zigzag.

In order for that to get confirmed I would need silver to head to $17.80. On this daily chart, we have two major price hurdles to clear before any bullish move is completed. Sure, it all has been slow going, but when a “C” wave gets unleashed, the short players will get burned.

I’m not concerned about any rate increases that may still be coming this year as that is a sign of impending inflation, and it’s when gold and silver is supposed to shine. Sure silver and gold can fluctuate wildly in price, but it has an intrinsic value to it, where it can’t fall to zero like “any” paper  or  cyber tech asset can.

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Silver Intraday Crash Review: Has It Gone Far Enough?

This morning the intraday low touched $16.84 and has now turned up a bit. As much as I would like to see the end of this correction, we have to wait and see what the next rally in silver will bring us. Let’s say that silver starts a rally, but this rally is very choppy. It heads back up to $17.40 and at this point it could be another 4th wave rally and another 5th wave down would have to follow. 

That would be a potential “A” wave of a bigger and longer correction, and we would not even be a third of the way through this correction. 

Between gold and the silver daily charts they have diverged from each other, to where the corrections are no longer acting in sync. Gold hit its corrective bottom in December of 2016, while silver bottomed in July of 2017. This is about a 7 month difference between the two which is a big spread or divergence. 

Silvers correction fits better into a triangle at this time, which, if true gives us a clue to the end of a potential rally. This potential wave 1-2 correction may be too high of a degree, so we still have lots of room for silver to move up. Many don’t see the difference between the two, but from my perspective, it stands out like a sore thumb which can’t be ignored. Until we get some really crazy expensive ratios, this bull market is still alive.

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Silver Intraday Crash Review

Silver is still imploding, but this was not unexpected. Where it will stop, or how far through this correction, we are, is still a short term mystery. We do have a great previous low between $16.85-$16.60 so Silver can come to a screeching halt anytime. Silver is on a downside vertical move which can’t be maintained in the long run, so a sideways move should happen soon.  Gold has also executed a move like silver, but needs a bit more length to make it look better. 

Maybe silver will give us a great looking H&S pattern before it starts on the next leg up. Some of the gold and silver stock ETFs did not react as strongly as silver and gold did, which is actually a very bullish sign. At least there is a bit more action going on in the silver and gold markets, but in the SP500, it seems it’s stuck in place. 

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Silver Intraday Correction Update

From a potential “B” wave bottom in Minor degree, silver surged for most of July. Since then silver has started a correction, which could be finished.  The correction may not be finished just yet, so another plunge below the bottom trend line may still happen.

The correction could be a 4th wave, so another leg up should happen. After the anticipated leg up has completed, then we should be in a new Minute degree wave 1.

As ugly of a correction it was,  silver’s bottom can only fit into a triangle. Any triangle in the “B” wave position is a stark warning that there is one more “Thrust” coming, and once this trust has completed it would also be the end of the bigger bullish phase.   There still is lots of time before we even get close, as it may take until mid or late 2018 before the big bullish phase in silver is done.

If we go back 100 years to late 1918 we know silver peaked, and then imploded into a 13 year bear market, ending around 1932.  Even Steven Jon Kaplan figures the gold/silver bullish phase could last well into 2018, and he is much smarter than me and can read markets far better than any Elliott Wave specialist ever will.

Most of all the other commodities and stock markets also bottomed in 1932, so this time period has significance from my perspective.

I visited my contrarian friend yesterday who also manages other peoples money, and there is no panic in trying to get out of any silver related assets.

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Silver Daily Chart Review: Up And Away?

Silver started to bottom yesterday and now has soared this morning. This could be the start of the next leg up from a pretty steep, and straight decline.  Another very steep and much longer decline ended in early May which could all work as wave two corrective declines.  

Last month I showed a potential wave 1-2 for the 2016 decline, but there is too high of a chance that the 2016 top was an “A” wave top in Minor degree.  The entire silver bull market going way back to the 1993 bottom can only fit into a diagonal which are zigzags connected together, producing the wild spikes and overlapping patterns, that make up the silver market. We have to search far and wide to see some clean impulse waves, and even then they are small degree moves. 

In silver, I have to keep wave positions on two separate patterns, and the above pattern has an “A” wave top but in Minor degree.  It has to be in Minor degree if the 4th wave bottom is in Intermediate degree. Silver has done this many times in the past, so it will be interesting to see if silver will hold this pattern on a 5th wave.

A few other asset classes also could work as a 5th wave zigzag, so silver is not the only one.  In the long run an “ABC” zigzag bull market is very much the same as a 1-2-3 impulse wave count.  Until wave 3 materializes, we can work both patterns.  When this does happen, other indicators should also start to show up, so it is not just one thing we have to look for when the next major peak hits again. 

Even now silver could roar up as another zigzag to a wave one as well, which would make the present wave 1 peak a bit too early.

I’m sure you have heard of $200 silver forecasts, but since 1980 silver couldn’t even manage to hit $50 never mind $200.  If we are really lucky maybe silver will give us another triple top, around the $49 price level, but until that actually happens, any price forecasts are just mythical numbers thrown out to the public based on fundamental analysts.  

Longer term I’m bullish on silver, and now we need more evidence to keep the silver bull market alive and kicking.   

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Silver Weekly Chart, Elliott Wave Count Review

It would be fantastic if commodities moved just like stocks do, but the sad fact is that they don’t.  Fear dominates everything in commodities, and the massive leverage all commodities have is one of the main drivers of this fear.  This fear creates the wild spikes that flip flop around, like a fish out of water.  

I have been reviewing my larger degree wave counts, as Cycle degree wave 3 for 2011 may have been too aggressive, and therefore too early with the Cycle degree top. The entire silver bull market, which started in 1993, is one of the best examples of a diagonal run that you can find at this time, which keeps any idealized 5 wave impulse on the endangered species list. 

2016 is now a potential diagonal 4th wave in Intermediate degree, and technically we should get another zigzag to new record highs. This is also when a double top could form with only marginal new highs. That scenario would still be far away, so we do have time before we need to make a major decision.   

With silver it will be a real challenge,  as I don’t think I can switch to 5 diagonal waves up in Minor degree at this time. Switching to a wave count that may be marginal, will help to eliminate it, as any far off wave count will surely fail.

These changes do not necessarily distort any long term bullish view I already have, which is a good thing.  Knocking a Cycle degree wave 3 top down to an Intermediate degree wave 3,  is a change of 2 degree levels.

The mid 2016 peak I show as a wave one in Minute degree, but I may have to change that to a Minor degree. Any time we put a wave count up, it is prone to fail sooner or later, but we have to run them until they no longer make sense. 

I may change gold and oil as well, as all my Cycle degree wave 3 positions regarding commodities, need reviewing. 

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Silver Bull Market Intraday Update

I think we had a major bottom on May 9th after which it started another run heading north. Well, not exactly true north, but north east. This has a long way to go and we are not even at any wave one in Minute degree, as we have to build up to it. The first major hurdle that silver has to go above is the wave 1 top at about the $18.70 price level.

I’m sure that would produce some resistance, but if this bullish phase is as strong as I suspect, it should eventually break out and travel much further.  My wave degree will need some adjustment, but that is not a big deal. Eventually we have to review the daily charts to make sure everything still fits together on the bigger scale.

One thing about intraday scale charts is that they disappear, so we can never go back to recount the intraday scale a few years down the road.  I will not commit any logic that we may be thinking that silver is heading to the moon or some other ridiculous $200 price forecast, as this may all be part of a big “D” wave rally.  We have been in the “C” wave bullish phase for months already, and that should continue for the rest of this year.

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Has Silver Crashed Far Enough?

Silver has been crashing, which only contained very small counter rallies. When we look at it from a daily and weekly perspective,  we see it as a pretty straight down pattern. In this case I’m using a Minor degree wave 2 bottom, which would contain 6 degree levels. Even a wave like this would still have many extensions, that could come out of hiding when it is time to do so.  This may not be the time, as we could get a counter rally that no short trader account can withstand the drawdown. 

The “Buy” orders are all bunched up above silver’s present price level, and they can get triggered with computer trading and those pesky critters called Algorithms.  

I have a pretty wild wave count at this time, and it may not last a day, but I have to use it, to help eliminate if it’s wrong.   I may have to knock down the degree level, but for now the degree level is not a concern.   Silver could be off,  on a very strong bullish phase, and it will do everything in its power, to kick anyone off, that thinks they are getting a free ride.

This is also a good example, what silver can do with a decline when it wants to.  Sure, there can be a bit more downside, but I’m anticipating a reversal, as this has the markings of a bear trap.   Silver has a little more than $1.00 of downside room left, before the last support level is exceeded. Just like the horse races, it’s down to the wire!  

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Silver Intraday Crash Update.

I believe that this great looking silver crash is a correction and not the start of some super bearish move. I think the best part is yet to come. I moved my Minor degree top over with an extended diagonal zigzag, which places the Minute degree correction not quite in the middle of the decline, followed by a long and skinny “C” wave. If all the technical wave counting is correct or very close, then this would be one of the best wave trading setups this year.

At a minimum, any “ABC” type crash will retrace 100% of its decline, and then add on more legs after it breaks out.  I stress more attention should be paid to 3 wave patterns than any set of 5 waves, as 3 waves dominate the markets at this time.  

Silver is not starting as a pure impulse, but that is to be expected as we have to link all zigzags together in a wave 3 as well. Before I used to panic thinking that all these were false rallies, but I know this is not true.

As you can guess I would have to be very bullish with what I see right now, but we need time to move forward to help confirm it. 

Technically, we should also see waves 3-4-5 show up, after which it can give us another major  high and time to force a decision on us. Many things have to fall into place as well, so it’s not all about any wave count.  Emotions and crowd sentiment is the underlying fundamentals of the EWP, and when we ignore these sentiment indicators we do so at our own peril.  The Futures or Forex markets will show us no mercy, as that is where “fear” dominates at the expense of hope and greed. I know that most fears develop because of over trading, and lack of attention how much of our trading accounts we have used up. There is a big difference in fear, if you only risk $1 out of $100 cash, or betting $50-$60 out of each $100 net cash in your trading account.  Only the guy standing in front of a slot machine will bet everything.  

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Silver Intraday Crash Review

 

 

One thing we have to keep in mind is that after a crash depending on what degree we are working, will always end up going higher from where the crash originated from.  This forms the higher highs which many would classify as a bull market.  If silver will stop on a dime is never an exact sure thing. Seeing this as a potential corrective crash, then silver should eventually soar with another leg up. The next target would be a wave 3 in Minor degree, containing 5 waves in Minute degree.

This is also when the markets can extend to such an extent, that it is hard to imagine what some unseen smaller degree levels can do. In this specific wave count I could have up to 5 degree levels that might come out of hiding below Minute degree.  Just because something has soared tall does not mean it is in a higher degree.  Breaking the sequential chain is the worst thing we can do with the EWP, as it is just like a DNA string that can’t be resequenced.  I call it a DNA string, but in reality it is more like a Fibonacci string, that has to stay in sequence.

Move just one wave position and we have broken the string, so the entire sequence has to be recounted and checked again.

I’m still bullish in the long term and expect this decline to reverse sooner than later.

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Silver Daily Chart Review

 

 

Since the silver bull market began in late 2015, it rallied in what I saw was an instant bear market rally, but the bearish readings were just too strong to have it end anytime soon.   Silver is the king of diagonal wave structures and they should be labeled as such. Most of the time room does not allow us to do that.   I believe that silver and others have a real high probability of being in a “D” wave Primary degree bull market.  This “D” wave needs one big zigzag to confirm it, but we have to keep the old “B” wave around just in case we have to bring it back.  We don’t have to do that until this run has completely finished.

Obviously late 2016 was another strong bottom, but how strong would be best explained with the degree levels. If this late 2016 bottom is a “B” wave in  Intermediate degree, then we have to use our knowledge of the idealized charts, to figure out exactly what patterns and at what degree level we need to finish off a “C” wave bull market.

What we need  is the technical requirement for an inverted zigzag. I have drawn out so many of them, in idealized fashion and as simple templates, yet not to many wave analysts can fill in the templates, when I challenge them on it.  A zigzag needs a 5-3-5 run and the 5 waves should always alternate, even if the first set of 5 is a bit different than the second set of 5 waves, then this is fine. In this second set they are still diagonal waves, but they are much smoother and overlap much more, making it much harder to see the connecting zigzags. 

The “C” wave we need must break out to new record highs, and they can have a nasty habit of extending to the likes we seldom ever see. This still may take all year to do, but finding the first Minor degree wave one is always tricky to get, as diagonal waves are born to fool us. 

Even now the correction in silver has still some up and down moves to go, before it is ready to start on the next leg up. 

 

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Silver Daily Chart 2016-2017 Review

 

 

I have not done a silver review for some time, but I looked it over on the monthly chart before I started with this wave count.  In late 2015 silver bottomed very close with gold, but its bull phase started just like gold, but with one wild mess of overlapping wave structures.  These are diagonal bullish waves, and technically I should not show you impulse wave counting. This can’t always be done due to size limitations, but in this daily chart it is important to know that we are starting with a diagonal wave count. 

The entire silver bull market, which starting back in 1993, is one of the best charts to use as that bull market was also one of the best real world diagonal wave structures I have seen.  For the early 2016 bullish phase, we have basically the same thing, and it is a theme that will come and go during the entire silver bull market in Primary degree.  A potential “B” wave in Primary degree, is a big bear market rally, which can fool us into forcing us to end the bullish phase too early.

Ending too early is unacceptable to me, so we will do the best to milk this bullish phase as best as we can. The general public will never know the difference between a bull market and a big bear market rally, but as Elliott Wave analysts, we have to know the difference as soon as possible.

In a five wave bull market, we can expect 3 strong pushes or legs up, but any “B” wave bull market will give us the same thing, except possibly the Intermediate degree correction.  If suddenly the gold/gdx ratio becomes too expensive then, all bullish bets would have to be reevaluated.  I like to explain in detail of what is anticipated, so when we are wrong, we catch it at the earliest times.  At this time I have not had to change the 2011 peak, and this is a good sign, as this may indicate a stable position.  

The short term wave count is still very fuzzy, but hopefully it will alternate from the first “A” bullish wave. 

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