Tag Archives: SC Degree

DJIA 1929-2017 Linear Chart Cycle Degree Review

I love to show the DJIA in a linear chart as it shows the last year or so as a near vertical move. This move was what they called the Trump Bump and a few other names. The majority, though the bull market was over as the markets plunged in reaction to Donald Trump being elected as president. I was one of the few that didn’t fall for that and sure enough the stock market reversed its losses and proceeded to soar.

It soared higher with a constant barrage of new record highs being broken, and it still may not be finished as I post. 22,773 seems to be the present record high.

1929 to 1932 was a major bear market, producing a depression during that time. From some of the worst fundamentals in stock market history, the markets turned and charged up for many decades with many crashes and corrections along the way. Crashes, corrections and bear markets are going to continue to happen if my single idealized wave pattern is true. These bull market phases since the 2000 peak  are the results of extended wave 3s that have been happening since the 1932 bottom. If our wave count is wrong for 1929-1932 then all the cosmetic wave counting in the world will not find us a better fit.

Yes 5th waves extend, but 5th waves also tend to be the shortest waves most of the time.   Since the 1932 bottom I use no 4th waves in SC degree or 4th waves in Cycle degree in the 70s bear market. The EWP clearly says that wave 3s are never the shortest wave, yet the majority of all expert wave analysts in the world, are based on 5th wave extensions.  Extending 5th waves and never looking for the alternative wave 3 extensions will always force the wave counts into a much higher degree. The next thing we know is that 2000 becomes a SC or even GSC  wave 3. Any wave 4 in any degree has a very specific simple idealized wave structure, that must get confirmed.

Of course I followed along and used to count everything in GSC and then in SC degree, yet none of the waves required never materialized. When that fails, it’s not a failure of the EWP, but it is a failure of humans to think objectively and sequentially. Most people are biased in some shape or form and wave analysts are no different. It took me until 2013 before I dumped all SC and GCS degree thinking. I use an idealized wave structure to tell me what I’m supposed to be looking for, and try not to practice cosmetic wave counting.

Markets never make it that easy where the wave count is so clear. If they were, we would have many wave counting billionaires in the world today. Yet when you look at the contrarians today most of them will never be caught dead drawing out a bunch of numbers and letters.

I’m anticipating a Cycle degree stock market correction, which the majority will call a bear market by the time it shows itself. A big bear market is just a correction in an ongoing bigger bull market, which from my perspective, is the SC and GSC degree levels. Both degree levels are already in extended waves.

There are three main price hurdles that this impending wave 4 needs to retrace in the next 3-4 years. One of them is the complete retracement of the Trump Rally, and then as a bare minimum, the markets must dip well into the 2007 peaks in all indices, not just the DOW.

With the DJIA this would be well below the 14,000 price level. The last hurdle to cross would be a complete retracement of the stock mania that started in 2011. That would take us below the DJIA 10,000 price level. Once the Trump Rally is completely retraced, then we will be left with a single long spike to the upside for many years to come.

Our present tall skinny looking 5th wave is the opposite of the long skinny spike to the downside that ended in early 2009. From a bear spike in 2009 to a bull spike in 8 years or so, is a nice Fibonacci round number. Many markets move in Fibonacci years, but the underlining driving force of the markets is the solar cycle.

At this time, many experts are still expecting for stock prices to “melt-up” so to speak. This is very standard bullish talk at the peak of any bull market. At the extreme, wave positions cannot be in sympathy with the bullish herd, as the waves always act the opposite of popular opinion.  Investors love to buy high as they feel safe amongst millions of others doing the same thing.

In reality insiders have sold in May 2017, and in the long run retail investors will be left holding a portfolio of worthless paper, again.

What amazes me many times, is how short of a memory investors really have, as they have learned nothing in the last 17 years. It is mathematically impossible for the majority to win at this investing game, as they are always too early or too late when making a decision. Seasoned contrarians know this very well, and have perfected the art of buying low and selling high to the emotional investors.

As scary as it sounds, I watched more 1929 documentaries and there is not much difference as investors were extremely bullish in 1928 as well.

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Idealized Cycle, Supercycle And Grand Supercycle Degree Review

All my work is based on the idea that the EWP is nothing but one huge impulse wave with its origins of wave zero starting at the bottom of the last ice age about 20,000 years ago.   About 8000 years ago the earths climate had already significantly warmed up, and commercial farming was picking up dramatically. Commercial farming allowed city states to grow into Empires which history has documented very well. Since then there have been ups and down trends that closely follow global warming and global cooling.

The above chart starts at the top left, with Cycle degree wave 3 followed by a Cycle degree 4th wave correction after which the markets should soar one more time. The key is what the pattern is that we would need to complete the 5th wave in Cycle degree. This would be 5 waves in Primary degree that would also follow solar cycle #25 to its top 5-8 years later.

Many times I include a triangle as my 4th wave, but that is only to show that no wave structures are even like they show us in the Little Blue Book.  Many times we would get a flat in a 4th wave position as triangles are a bit on the rare side.

The idealized chart ended in 2000 with a wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by another 2007 top of Primary degree and now in 2017 I will be looking for a wave 3 in Cycle degree. Each wave 3 moves up by one degree which could top again closer to 2029 with a SC degree wave 3 at the right hand top of the chart above.

Nothing in the markets or life, travels as even as what they show us in the book.


This chart is the exact same thing as the top chart,  except it starts with SC degree wave 3,  but this time the 5 waves following the 4th wave correction, will be 5 waves up in Cycle degree. This sequence would end at the now famous GSC degree wave 3 top.  How long do you think that 5 waves in Cycle degree will last?  Our present Cycle degree has been running for 85 years and it’s still not finished, so any Cycle degree set of 5 waves could send us to the year 2129 before we ever reach any GSC degree  wave 3 top.

A third set of this idealized chart would get us to Submillennium degree wave 3, 200 years into the future closer to the years 2229. I see the wave 2 bottom of the Submillennium degree as being closer to the bottom of the Little Ice Age which only ended about 1850.  They called it, “1800 And Froze To Death'” and in 1816 they had the famous, “Year Without Summer”.

The LIA was documented very well by all the painters during that time, so pretending that it never happened flies against all evidence.

The two charts above will keep generations of wave analysts busy trying to confirm it. One big confirmation of the entire wave 2 base of counting would be the Cycle degree wave 4 bottom.

The majority of wave analysts is already counting in SC and or GSC degree, because they have never extended any wave 3 in the past.

The Elliott Wave Principle is not about what you see in the real  world, it’s all about what you’re supposed to see if all the 3rd waves are extended.  The DJIA is the very best in displaying the extended wave, but the majority has refused to do the work and go back 80-100 years to start a new count.

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Updated August, 27, 2017

This is the third chart in which I use the exact same template as the other two above, but this one outlines what a wave 3-4-5 in Grand Supercycle degree would count out when the third wave extends.  I will still update the first two charts, with a name change, but you can print out all three of them out and place them side by side in landscape, with our present Cycle degree on your left, SC degree in the middle followed by a GSC degree on your right.  If we are lucky Submillennium degree wave 3 may come to fruition closer to the year 2229, which is also the 300 year anniversary date of the 1929 stock market peak. Wave 1 in Submillennium degree, took about 300 years to peak out in the Midieval Warm period, followed by about a 4oo-600 year wave 2 bear market otherwise known as the Little Ice Age.

I could make a 4th chart in Millennium degree, but that would not finish until mankind is past the Age Of Aquarius!

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DJIA 2000-2017 Review

The above chart is a simpler version of what I see as 3 sets of wave 3 tops. Every 4th wave correction is followed by a 5th wave, with the 2009 to present fitting better as a diagonal than an impulse. Any diagonal bull market should tell us that we are in a 5th wave, as the huge bearish rally concept will not fit. I have never run into a big 8 year bear market rally and we can go back a hundred years or more.  Long term readers know this old pattern, but new readers may not have had a chance to see it. 

The majority of expert wave analysts today, are still counting in SC degree, or they think we’re in GSC degree. The reason so many are in this high degree count in the first place, is because they are all working from a 4th wave base, thinking that a 5th wave can extend several generations. Hey, I followed the same wave count as well, but realized something was very wrong with their counts. 

We will never find any SC degree if the entire set of 5 waves in Cycle degree, is not found first. From my Cycle degree perspective, which I switched to in 2013, has not forced me to move any peak or gully since the 2009 bottom. This can provide a strong confirmation that we are close to a real wave count that we may be able to forecast with.

I think counting out the DOW is very important, as you have to understand the extended wave 3 principle, but if we don’t get that 1970-1980 wave count right, then all the little numbers and letters in the world will mean nothing! My Submillenium wave 2 ended with the Little Ice Age, so at a minimum, we can expect an extended wave 3 terminating some time into the 21st century. 

All the different wave 3 peaks have an increasing count by one degree higher each time, so I’m very confident that the next major wave 3 peak will be SC degree. This may not happen until 2029 or a bit later as 20 and 30 year cycles are also involved. 

We have a very good chance of heading into a Cycle degree 4th wave correction, followed by another 5 wave impulse type of a market.  This 5 or 8 year  bull market, must be 5 waves in Primary degree, which would terminate at my 5th wave in Cycle degree and wave 3 in SC degree.

I may not know exactly what wave count we may be at, at any given moment, but I sure do have the confidence in knowing what will never fit, once I figure out their degree list. 

I’m pretty sure that these high degree fear mongers would be expecting a decline well below the 2009 crash bottom, but the markets have a nasty habit of always doing something else. Just to prove these mega bears wrong, it would be great if any Cycle degree crash never ended past 2009 lows, but that the markets stop well short, leaving everybody wondering what happened again.  

If we look back (hindsight) to the 2008-2009 bottom, and still not be convinced that it was the place to be with a major long position, then the next time this happens we will still be too scared to take any strong position.

I’m not the type of a person that sees a depression, boogie man, or the end of the world around every corner, because If the climate or a comet is going to exterminate humankind, we will never know what hit us before it happens. 

 

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The Mythical Supercycle Degree Reviewed

The ELLIOTT WAVE lives on – Anthony Caldaro – Public Chart List – StockCharts.com

Before you read the posting below, please follow the link above and look at the Caldaro DJIA wave count, for the 2007-2009 crash. He labels the 2009 bottom as a Supercycle degree wave 2, (SC2) but in doing so he has destroyed every wave count since the 1929-1932 crash.  In order for SC degree wave 2 to be real, a very precise sequence has to unfold to confirm it. 

I am commenting on this because he has also altered the degree list, inserting an extra degree (Major Degree) and renaming a few of the smallest degree levels with Nano and Pico degrees. 

When it’s convenient all the wave analysts ignore their own time span claims. They brag about these SC and GSC degree bear markets lasting 100 years or more, while they count SC degree patterns lasting only 3 years.  This is all very hypocritical work!   Now we have another SC degree wave 2 crash and they are trying to tell us that it lasted even less than 3 years. WOW! SC degree wave patterns are getting shorter and shorter.  It must have something to do with man-made climate change, bending time as well. 

Making cosmetic changes will never work, as any single change also cascades backwards in time, much like a set of falling dominoes.  The entire SC degree wave count going back 100’s of years has to be recalculated. I have recreated the wave 1-2 in SC degree below, and from my perspective, a very specific 5 waves in Cycle degree “must” follow. 

The wave count below is so large that they can claim to be right with any move the markets might take.  The next correction must not fall below 2009 levels, otherwise the entire wave count “must” be thrown out. It may take many years before this can get confirmed, and that’s far too long to carry a worthless wave count for.  Any lower degree changes all that, as lower degrees are far more sensitive. It only takes less than a Minor or Minute degree move, to find out that we are wrong.  

 

I have mentioned it many times, in saying that any SC or GSC degree wave count has never been confirmed by anyone. Since 2000,  the EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool, and nobody makes the effort to go back in history, and recount everything.  I take a 100 year perspective where you have to mentally transport yourself back 100 years, (1917) and then look forward and up, to see what can continue to happen. 

Yes, my wave counts do have a SC degree in our future, but that can take until 2029 before we even get close. It sure will not be any wave 1-2 in SC degree, but it will be wave 3 in SC degree.  I will reduce or drop any GSC degree comments in the future, as we will not even get close to any GSC wave 3 until 2129. Of course by that time, the end of the world will have arrived as mankind will be buried under a mile of ice!  😯 

The majority of charts produced by wave analysts, bog their chart’s down with every conceivable tool and prices. This is so bad   that we not longer can see any waves that need to be counted. Baffle us with bullshit and fear, is the name of the game, as the expert wave counting wizards continuously create smoke and mirror side shows. 

Sure, I may not always know exactly where we may be, at any given time in the big scope of things, but I sure do know when any Elliott Wave count will never fit into the idealized sequence. 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Review

The DJIA stopped this morning and then started to soar again. How high this counter rally will go all depends if a real top has already completed well over 5 days ago. One thing is certain and that is we have overlapping waves that are not allowed to happen in an impulse. Any starting set of 5 waves can be a diagonal, and that’s what I look for, in the immediate future.

The DJIA has roared back so fast that it was approaching the top trend line already, while I post. Violent moves to the downside and then reverse violent moves to the upside, is the pattern we have to put up now and for the foreseeable future.

We need the markets to hold that bullish top on the 19th to help confirm and potential Cycle degree top we may have. So far it looks good, but in the markets, looks are always deceiving. It’s one of the reasons to be a bit more cautious before I plunk down a Cycle degree wave 3.   I doubt a new price low will have time to play out by the end of today, but by month’s end, with some big holidays in July in Canada and the USA, anything can still happen.

Eventually the summer could end up being pretty slow, so it is a good idea to keep the wave counting options open, at least for the short term. Long term this market is going down, and the only real question is which one of the three bear market patterns,  will we get?

We will hear horror stories about some DJIA 5000 price forecast, which they are playing the Doom and Gloom fear card. The more fear they can spread, the more money they can suck out of our pockets.  I’m pretty sure that future price forecasts of 3000, and 1000 will also hit the media, but those 3 price forecasts will never happen if a SC degree wave 3 is still well over a decade away. SC degree wave 3 is an extended wave as well, which may not finish until 2029, it surely did not end in 1929.

Where is GSC degree in all of this? Well, GSC degree wave 3 is still going strong, but we may not see any GSC  wave 3 peak until 2129. Any GSC degree wave count or forecast you may hear is based on 5th wave extensions not on wave 3 extensions. If someone comes along and can’t believe that wave 3’s are extended, then all we have to do is point to 1929 and remind them that 1929-1932 was a SC degree wave 1-2.  There was no Cycle degree wave 3-4 in the 70s, and until those two main patterns are wiped out and recounted, the debate of degree levels will rage on.

Those SC and GSC degree wave forecasters, have never confirmed any SC or GSC degree waves anywhere, and as a wave analyst, we need very specific wave counts to confirm any higher degree.

In the last 7 years not a single wave counting reader has come forward and told me they want to switch and help confirm any Cycle degree pattern. The EWP today is used as a short term trade setup, and therefore never saw the biggest bull market coming since the depression. This is pretty sad indeed, as missing a huge bull market should never have happened.

Contrarians do a much better job of reading tops and bottoms, and they are some of the wealthiest people in the world.

Insiders have sold out in May, which is not a good foundation for another major leg up.

Due to holidays and long weekends, I try to reduce any wave analysts, on our holidays. 

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E-Mini SP500 Bullish Record Top Review

The SP500 started to turn late last night and has now made a pretty good decline. It is starting to dip into a potential previous wave one peak, but I would like to see a bit deeper into my “A” wave position before a potential diagonal 4th wave can still happen.

At this time the rally to new record highs crossed as a 3 wave pattern and not as a 5 wave pattern. Three wave bull markets are a clear indicator that a diagonal wave structure is in progress.  Now we have to watch and wait to see if this major top will hold.

One of these days the Cycle degree wave 3 will find a permanent home that will last for the next 100 year. Visualizing the idealized extended impulse that we must know how to draw out, is the key to in knowing what to look for. My wave counts are a minimum of two degrees lower, than what the majority of expert wave analysts, are presently using. Why this is so, is because the majority all work from a 4th wave base, (extended 5th waves) while I gave up on that idea in 2013.

The 5th waves are never that strong to extend from the 1932 bottom to our present top in 2017. Not only that, the majority of expert wave analysts see, dual large degree 5th wave extensions. Another 5th wave extension started after the 70’s bear market. Wow, two 5th wave extension in 85 years?  That kind of a setup may work on another planet, but they will never work on earth.

The only time we had a 5th wave extension was from 1987 to 2000, which was only in Minor degree. Many run the 1987 crash as a Primary wave 3-4 degree pattern, which again is a minimum of  two higher degrees than what I see it as.

We are faced with a potential Cycle degree 4th wave stock bear market, which is just a correction to an even bigger bull market to finish. Any 20% bear market correction means nothing, and any price bottom will not hold except on a temporary basis.

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SP500 Intraday New Record High Review

With all my index wave counts, we have now switched to the September contracts as there are no more June contracts left. There are only 4 contracts in the entire year, so a jump to September is very normal.  The markets, including this SP500 chart have gone wild, with mad emotional swings in both directions. 

The wild swings are signs that this market is unstable, but we know they can carry on like this much longer than we have the patience for.  From the 15th bottom the SP500 has now crossed to new record highs with a 3 wave pattern.  This could be part of a potential ending diagonal as well. The Russell 2000 also had basically the same pattern at the top, which helps to make the case that another correction is due, or the end of a big bull market can finally happen. 

Short term we are running low on the intraday possibilities, so any move down would give us more options to choose from.

These markets are pointing to a potential wave 3 peak in Cycle degree, and I have been building a potential bear market for some time already. Bull market tops are the breeding grounds for bear markets. Visualizing the idealized chart for the next 100 years will give us the wave counts needed to fulfill all the wave 3 extensions still to come. We are nowhere near SC degree wave 3 yet, as SC degree wave 3 must also extend. The wave “zero” start to SC degree wave 3, was in 1932 

 Any wave 3 peak in SC degree is still over a decade away, with any GSC degree top stretching closer to being another 89 to 100 years away. As time goes on,  my language will include SC degree commentary more often as I try to build a picture of what is to come.

Of course if I missed something big, any other pattern could still happen, but like I said options are starting to dwindle. Building a potential big wave count, is also helpful to detect mistakes as early as possible.

 

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DJIA 2009-2017 Bull Market Review

When the big markets are pointing up and the talking heads are also pointing the markets in the same direction, then this is when I’m already building the next pattern heading down. I’m not that concerned in how much higher this market can go, as I’m building a potential picture in how low it can go.

How low this market can go, all depends on where our original wave two starting point was, and how popular 5th wave extensions really are. With stocks 5th waves do extend, but many times it will be one of the last 5th waves in a run. It is wave 3 that has to be the longest wave.

The last 5th wave extension happen from the 1987 crash bottom to the 2000 peak. From the 1987 crash bottom, the markets exploded with a wild sequence of 5 waves in Minute degree, which translates into just one move in Minor degree.

It took me until about 2013 to finally look at the bull market from a 5th wave perspective. Not as an impulse, but as a diagonal wave structure.  Diagonals, are just zigzags connected together with flats or triangles in a 4th wave position, which the EWP does not explain very well.  In the book they label an ending diagonal like an impulse, but in reality they are zigzags linked together. To separate the normal impulse waves from diagonal impulse waves, I use a specific wave counting method that is also shown in the book, which most experts seemed to ignore.

When I see analysts turning diagonal wave patterns into impulse wave patterns, then they are ignoring all the zigzags that are linked together in waves 1, 3, and 5. 

On the chart above, I show 4 horizontal lines, that had significant meaning on the way up, which on the flip side can provide some major turning price levels on the way down.

We have been told over and over about markets, retracing back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. When all wave analysts are walking to a different drummer, then who had late 2002 as a previous 4th wave?  The 2009 bottom 4th wave went much deeper than the late 2002 bottom, so the previous 4th wave is more of a guideline, than any strict rule. In short, I never use the previous 4th wave bottom like a rule, but I use it as a very strong guideline. 

 Now we are faced with a potential move that is two degrees higher than anything that the late 2002 bottom produced,  and one degree higher than the 2009 bottom. Many experts will look for new record lows, with DJIA forecasts to 5000, 3000 or even 1000, becoming very popular  again.

One thing is certain, by the time the markets get to the next major low, fear mongering by the experts and the mainstream will be front page news. When that day arrives, fear will keep investors out of the markets and at best you will be holding a token position just before the Roaring 2020’s get started again.  

 

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Russell 2000 2015-2017 Daily Chart Review

The Russell 2000 has given us one wild ride which most analysts ignore most of the time. Recently the Russell 2000 has led in the downhill race, but quickly turned and played catch up, soaring to new record highs again. What is different with this top is that the pattern is very choppy, followed by another very choppy run, which sure can count out as an ending diagonal. 

The 4th wave in Intermediate degree sure can work as a zigzag which was then followed by what looks like a set of 5 bullish waves. Well, these can also work as one single zigzag, with a stretched “C” wave in Minor degree.  This has been pretty normal on most indices, except for the Nasdaq, which has been closer to an impulse pattern, than all the other major stock markets. 

The Russell 2000 also has several major bottoms that could provide us with an early warning wave count, for a future Cycle degree 4th wave bottom.  No! We are not some super duper mega crazy SC or even GSC degree wave top as those wave counts are all based on 5th wave extensions, and not wave 3 extensions. Wave 3 extensions come from a wave 2 base which I started to switch to in 2013. 

There is no way of knowing for sure,  if this top will hold.  The prospect of an ending diagonal sure can change things in a hurry. 

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E-Mini DOW 30 Intraday New Record High Review

From the May, 18th DJIA bottom, the markets have charged back, in what looks like a strong move. In reality they show the desperation of participants to ride this bullish phase.  They only ask, How much higher can it go”? 

They should be asking how deep can the markets crash down to?  Every bull market has a start and an end, but knowing the exact wave that it will end on, is always a crap shoot in the short term. One good thing about any new record high is that we don’t have to fight with multiple tops. Double tops or what some call, “truncated tops”, makes it more difficult to figure out where to count from, which so far is not an issue. 

In the long run, we are heading up to a Cycle degree wave 3, which is now off by a Minute degree, from my previous Cycle degree top. 

All my work starts from a wave 2 base as the majority of expert wave analysts have been working from a 4th wave base since 1932.  5th waves never extend this much as they usually are the weakest waves. They can also contain diagonals which further amplify any weaknesses.  The only time that any 5th wave really extended, started just after the 1987 stock market crash. 

Since the 2000 top, not a single wave analyst has confirmed any part of any SC degree, let alone GSC degree. We need very specific patterns to confirm any potential SC degree, that we may think we are in. This wave structure is 5 waves in Primary degree.  

Any wave analyst that is presently working 5 waves up in Primary degree, in any asset class is already in SC degree, and if they are looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree, at a minimum they are also in SC degree.  GSC degree would need many 5 wave trips in Primary degree, up an down. 

From the 2009 bottom we have a diagonal 5th wave, not some 8 year bear market rally that has never happened in market history anywhere. 

As I post the markets have pushed higher, which makes my wave count still a bit too early.   Any new record high can be the last record high, and sooner or later the greatest fool rushing in, will have bought his DOW long position.

Insiders have long left this market, and only the retail, and speculator  trend chasers are left playing this game.

The VIX has also hit new record lows, so it can make a nice bounce when fear strikes again.   

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Idealized Cycle And Supercycle Degree Wave Counts For The Next 100 Years.

These charts look like they are very steep, which is the only way to squeeze them onto a single 8X10 chart.  Many templates I print out in 22×28 format as I post them on my wall in my small home based office.  The first chart below will give you an idealized wave count from the 1932 bottom, to a Grand Supercycle degree wave 3 top, sometime in the next century.  The 1932 bottom is my wave Zero to the start of  5 waves in Cycle degree. 

This may not make sense, but it would make sense if we visualize the Elliott Wave principle as one single impulse wave, which started after our planet started to climb out of the last ice age. Wave Zero in Supermillennium degree started about 11,000 BC, when farming began to spread. Commercial farming produced enough food to allow cities to grow into city states and empires.

Here is a good link that talks about starting to grow food 13,000 years ago when the CO2 content started to go above 240 PPM.

Of course the reverse happens when our earth dips into a mini ice age condition. We had many deep cold spells in the last 10,000 years, and expecting no more cold spells in our future, is just wishful thinking. 

In one single impulse for the general stock markets,  we get an idealized count of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2  waves,  where wave 1 is always the shortest and wave 3 is always the extended wave. Three sets of 1-2 waves will extend wave 3. This makes the 5th wave one of the shorter waves, and most of the time fundamentally the weakest as well. It is a 4th wave crash that crushes the fundamentals, making the 5th wave very weak.

The majority of new wave analyst, joined in after 2000 as it seems the EWP book spread far and wide with the Internet at that point in time.

The idealized chart or script above starts back with the 1932 bottom showing some dates. This gives us a potential 2017 Cycle degree wave 3 top, with a bottom by 2021 or so.  From any 4th wave bottom, we always must get a 5 wave bullish run that must also be a specific wave count. In this case, and from the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, the EWP shows us we are supposed to get 5 waves up, in Primary degree. From 2009 to 2017 we already have 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, but the next bull market has to be one degree higher. 5 waves in Primary degree would finish Cycle degree wave 5 and terminating at a SC degree wave 3 in green, on your top right. 

Some of the last 4th waves I show with a triangle, but I think big triangles are very rare, so the chart above I turned it into a flat.

 

The chart above is presently our current picture with Cycle degree wave 3 on your top left, followed by a flat to a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, which can also turn into a zigzag. After the Cycle degree 4th wave crash, we get a roaring bull market that could last for another 8 years, to the 2029 time period.  This is also when SC degree wave 3 will end, and another SC degree bear market will start.

We are already reading reports how the super bearish expert wave analysts are expecting a depression. Just like no depression happened in 2009, I’m sure we will not get one even with a SC degree crash after 2029.   Sure we will get recessions over and over again, but the solar cycles have trashed depressions in the past.  To get a full fledge depression, the majority of us will have no money and no job, and there would be no inflation. There would also be a big reduction in Millionaires and Billionaires in the world, as their wealth goes up in electronic smoke.

Besides that, we are not in the1930s anymore, where they had no general support. In todays world, we can send money to anybody in an instant,  via auto debt. How many pensioners get their checks as auto deposits? Our Canadian government loves to see all of us on auto deposit, as tax refunds can happen at lightning speed.

The next chart below starts where the chart above finishes.


Again,  up on your left is a green wave 3 which is Supercycle degree.  I use the same template as the only thing that changes are the degree levels. We would also be well past the 2030s going into another huge crash, as a potential flat.  SC degree Wave 1-2 from 1929-1932 sure looks like a zigzag, so SC degree wave 4 has a very good chance of being the opposite.   I think any SC or even GSC degree triangle will not happen as they seemed to be rare indeed. Besides, every 4th wave correction, we have had,  is a different degree level, so flat corrections can repeat themselves many times. I don’t mean double flats as they are extremely rare, to the point they don’t exist. 

If we don’t understand how the 5 simple charts fit together, how do we know what we are supposed to look for?  The three charts above will give you an idea what to look for, as the EWP is far easier to understand from an idealized chart perspective.  Ignoring extensions and forcing these extensions in a 5th wave will always push us into a higher degree, where we should not be.

I spent many years, counting in GSC degree and then switched down to counting in SC degree. Finally, I switched into Cycle degree in 2013.  All Cycle degree wave positions must be found first, before we will ever see any SC or GSC degree wave patterns.  This blog is dedicated in doing just that, as the EWP is far more valuable than just using it for short term trade setups.

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DOW E-Mini 30 Intraday Rocket Ride Review

 

This Mini DOW chart still has not broken any new record highs. Since the early March top we had what sure could pass as an impulse decline except that the 4th wave dipped into the wave 2 price territory. This alone kills any idea of an impulse, but it sure would work as a diagonal decline. The DOW would have to make some impressive moves to catch up to what the Nasdaq has been doing, but this is nothing new as the Nasdaq seems to march to a different drummer which it has done many times before.

It should be very obvious to any observer is that this DOW rally has opened up two extremely large gaps, which I think this market will have no problem in filling again. It may take more time, but the odds of filling  any gaps are always 90%.  There are more open gaps far below so all these will eventually all get filed as well. 

The Nasdaq pushing hard to new record highs can brainwash into thinking the same thing is going to happen to the DOW.   The DOW needs to keep on this decline if it is over the, hump of Cycle degree wave 3.  Only time will give us more answers as price has very little to do with it. Any prize can be obliterated,  if the pattern is there, so we are just witnessing this at a smaller scale. 

Many Wave counter now thing they are at a SC degree top with still many others working this as a GSC degree top.  Good luck with that, folks, as you must have the 5th wave in Cycle degree down pat in order for a SC degree correction to occur. Many have tried to count out from the 2000 peak, a double expanded flat, but double flats anywhere do not happen. 

I can just see it happening again, when the markets are in another oversold position. The big degree wave counting experts will miss that bottom as well as they are hell bent on forcing us to believe that the markets are going to 1000! Folks, there is nothing down at DOW 1000, 3000 or even 5000, that fits a previous 4t wave of one lesser degree. 

The big question is what pattern  may develop once the Cycle degree wave 3 top holds. Our EWP book tells us we can have 3 simple corrective outcomes, with the triangle being very low on my list.  The SC degree crash from 1929 to 1932 only took 3 years, so there is not going to be a 100 year SC degree correction, or some mythical 600 year GSC degree correction.

Even Steven Jon Kaplan does not anticipate a complete meltdown below any 2009 prices, which he has hinted to me already in an email. 

The entire problem with the EWP is that the majority  seem to love the higher degree wave counts, as it can make them sound very impressive, which sells more subscriptions and books.  Big and tall moves have no correlation to big degree patterns, because when markets extend it is the small degrees that come out from hiding. 

This market has to give us much more of an idea if we are to get a zigzag or a flat for a Cycle degree correction. Either way somewhere we should get an “A” wave bottom, followed by a “B” wave counter rally.  We are still far away from that, before it becomes more clear what the corrective pattern will be. 

 

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Important DJIA 1929-2017 Review

 

It is always a good idea to review the entire  bull market at critical turning points.  In this case it is the DJIA, which has a good long history we can see. I have made it pretty clear that I follow the Cycle degree wave counts, which without them, we can never move into any SC degree or GSC degree positions. The chart above is in Logarithmic  or “Log” scale which shows some beautiful patterns.  The big problem is the degree we should be in, and that wave 3 is always the extended wave, with a 5th wave extension as  being more rare than a common occurrence.

I show three places,  where the wave 3 is extended, and one where the 5th wave extended dramatically. In the 1950’s it was wave 3 in Intermediate degree that was extended pushing wave 1-2 in Primary degree into the 1970’s. The majority of expert wave analysts do not extend wave 3,  as they called the 1929 peak  a wave 3 in SC degree.  1929-1932 fits far better as a wave 1-2 in SC degree. Right in the middle of a depression the historic bull market began. This ended up with the markets basically ignoring all fundamentals and proceeded to soar into a super bull market.  The crash from 2007 to the 2009 bottom looks identical to the 1932 decline, but it was 2  degrees lower.  Many have the 1970’s as a sideways Cycle degree wave 4 which basically extends all 5th wave in the process.

Sure the 70’s looked like a sideways pattern, but looks are deceiving. There is no rule that says we can’t have an expanded flat in a wave 1-2 position,  as I see them on a smaller scale many times. Wave 2 in Primary degree ended in early December 1974, which was followed by another 1-2 wave in Intermediate degree which contained a running flat. (Red). Then again, after wave 1-2  with Intermediate degree, we had the third 1-2 wave but in Minor degree.  It was the 5th wave in Minor degree (blue)  that extended dramatically after the 1987 stock market crash.  The only time since the 1932 bottom that a 5th wave extended.

Sure, I was in the same trap  as I counted everything just like the majority have been doing. This will never work as the majority can never be right!  If we look back, we can see that 1977 contained a corrective move, followed by another 1987 corrective move. The years ending in 7  and corrective moves are still not finished as 2007  was followed by a crash as well.  Now we are in 2017, so if the theme stays true, we could see another corrective move but in Cycle degree.

 

This chart is in linear scale which displays the stock mania very well. Since 2013 I have abandoned the idea that we were on a big bearish “B” wave, until I realized I can’t have the same wave count as the majority had at the time.  Any 5th wave can contain an ending diagonal, but that is not the case this time.

A choppy bull market acts  like a diagonal which can happen in “Any” 5th wave. They are zigzags joined together with flats or any complex correction in the “B” wave positions which on the chart above,  I did label it the way it should be labeled.   When we look at the charts in this bigger scale, we can see the  wild spikes to the downside in early 2009, now followed in early 2017 with  a massive spike to the upside which also contained another zigzag.  Vertical moves like this can never be maintained, so it is just a matter of time before it reverses.

The majority of wave analysts that are already in SC or GSC degree, will never agree that we may be at a Cycle degree top, but that no longer surprises me anymore. I’m sure the 2002 bottom and the 2009 bottom is pointing a Megaphone pattern to 5000. The problem with that is, there is nothing down at DJIA 5000, nor is there any previous support at 3000 or even at 1000.  These numbers are all pulled out of a magician’s hat,  as they have no logical reason to exist.

I think in the bigger picture, this impending Cycle degree 4th wave will fool us by falling short of any 2009 bottom (6500)and roar up again in another 5-8 year bull market.  This will leave all wave counters empty handed again waiting for that horrible depression we have been hearing about.  I doubt very much that any 4th wave correction in Cycle degree,  will bring any depression at all. These major ugly forecasts are based on wave counts that have never been confirmed by anyone. From the idealized charts we can figure out exactly what degree positions we need to confirm any wave count.

Elliott wave has nothing to do with what we see in the real world charts, but it has to do with well drawn out idealized charts. In any impending correction, we always can have a choice of three simple patterns, with the triangle being very low on my list. Matter of fact, there were no triangles in the entire 1932-2017 bull markets, so I doubt very much that we are going to face some mega years in a SC or GSC degree.

These super long time periods they use,  are pretty useless as they are more like scare tactics to sell more subscriptions and books.  If a wave 4 in SC degree can only take 3 years, we sure are not going to get 600 year bear market in stocks.  Hell,  the next ice age will come before the next GSC degree bear market arrives.

Since the 1987 crash we had 5 waves up in Minute degree, then from about 2002 to 2007, we had 5 waves up in Minor degree followed from the 2009 bottom with 5 diagonal waves up in Intermediate degree. Each 5 wave sequence jumps by one degree, so we know what 5 wave sequence we should get in the next bullish phase, during the rise of solar cycle #25.  None of my readers have figured this out yet,  even though I have talked about it many times.

 

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DJIA 2000-2017 Cycle Degree Review: With Supercycle And Grand Supercycle Degree Commentary!

I spent many years learning how to count by following all the other wave analysts who were counting wave structures in Grand Supercycle degree (GSC) and in Supercycle degree. (SC) SC degree always comes before GSC degree, and Cycle degree comes before SC degree.  The waves we see in the real world are the simple, easy waves that any wave analyst can count and label with little trouble.

The EWP is a very subjective look at the markets from a GSC degree perspective, and all the practitioners that bought the EWP book have been taught to look at the markets much the same way. After many market failures, and missed bull markets,  I decided to knock down all the degree levels by one degree, which at that time moved everything into the SC degree world.

Things started to make more sense but still it was not good enough, because I always had too many degrees left. It also never matched anything that the contrarians were already doing.  This became very obvious after the 2002 and 2009 bottoms, as the experts still had very bearish wave counts at that time, while all the contrarian indicators were telling us otherwise.  In hindsight, most wave counters were working 5 waves down in Primary degree in 2002 and 2008, yet both of these wave counts failed dramatically.

The EWP is not about what you see and what we think we can see in the markets, the EWP is all about how we visualize and draw out the 5 simple patterns, and knowing how they fit together sequentially.

To understand the EWP from my perspective, I see the EWP as one big impulse wave, with all wave three positions being the longest waves. This one big wave structure started with a wave zero, after the ice age was ending, about 13,000 years ago or about 11,000 BC.

This is a pretty specific time period, and it is when the CO2 content in the earths atmosphere, crossed above 240 parts per million.  It is when plant life started to grow dramatically and agriculture started to spread around the world. Better farming methods, warmer climates and higher CO2 content in our atmosphere help support commercial farming, which was the only way that city states or empires could grow.  

All the big civilizations grew during a high degree wave one position, with periods of  (Global warming). Civilizations, then died or were cut down during the big wave 2 declines, which coincided with periods of  (Global cooling)  Submillennium wave two can fit into the Dark Ages very well after which GSC degree wave one also formed in the 1800’s  This massive singe impulse wave structure is based all on the waves starting with a 1-2 count.

In other words, Elliott Wave 5.0 is based on all waves coming from a wave 2 base with extended wave 3s, and is “NEVER” based on the 5th wave as being the longest.  Yet, when we look at all the expert wave counts out today, most of them are based on the 5th wave as being the longest wave.  The worst of these came after the 1929 peak,  as they were all convinced that the 1929 peak was in fact a wave 3 in SC degree.

I fell into the same trap and it took me a long time before I changed 1929 to a wave 1 position in SC degree, which made 1932 a wave 2 bottom. 1932 is the start of wave zero in Cycle degree, from which another 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2 base started from. In the 1950’s it was wave 3 in Intermediate degree that was extended, pushing wave 1 in Primary degree to the 1960’s and 70s. It is also one main reason why the 2007-2009 decline contained no expanded pattern.

 

 

One huge single impulse wave structure eventually gets to the half way point,  which is when it hits a Minor degree wave one in a Primary degree wave 3 impulse.  If the 2000 peak is too high of a degree, then we know that the past wave 3 has not been extended.  I can dream up virtually any wave count you would like, and the higher the degree the more impressive it may sound. The sad fact is, that what you see are actually much smaller degree levels.  Big and tall,  does not make them higher degree levels, as it is the smaller degrees that become visible when markets extend. 

With wave two bases, eventually only the waves 3-4-5 are left to play out which is the situation in the DOW chart above.  Intermediate degree wave 3 in red peaked in 2000, followed with the wave 4 bottom, and the wave 5 peak in 2007.  The 5th wave subdivided into 5 waves as it should, and in this case must be 5 waves up in Minor degree.  This theme will repeat itself over and over again growing by one degree each time.  This will be important to understand as any 5 waves after the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, must follow in sequence as well. In other words, we must get 5 waves up in Primary degree, to keep everything in sequence, which will eventually terminate at wave 3 in SC degree.

SC degree wave 3 may take until 2029, before it gets close to finishing.  After the SC degree wave 3 tops, and then the SC degree 4th wave bottoms, what is the wave pattern we must have, before we reach any GSC degree position?  We must get another 5 wave sequence, which must be 5 waves up in Cycle degree.  At this rate any GSC degree top may still be a 100 years away.

As I have mentioned many times,  I hunt and track the 5 waves in Cycle degree, as it precedes all SC and GSC degree wave patterns. Without all the Cycle degree peaks being found, no SC or GSC degree can have a base to build from.  All SC or GSC degree price forecasts mean “nothing” in a Cycle degree world, so the next time you hear DOW 5000 or DOW 3000 being mentioned, chances are good you will be left out of the markets holding a bag of wooden nickels. 

 That 2009 failure to forecast a super bull market should never have happened, as any failure of this type of wave counting is not an EWP problem, but it’s a human problem.  The failure to go back in time and fix any non extended wave structures, must be initiated as soon as any large degree wave structure fails.

Of course, that’s too much like work, as it is easier to cosmetically change any wave position, rather than going back a 100 years, and change the basic structure. 

 

The above template is specifically meant for a Cycle degree flat correction,  followed by 5 waves up, with an extended wave three.  2017 may give us the Cycle degree wave three top, so the readers to this blog will need this template for the next few decades. With a few changes like a potential zigzag, this same template can work for the Intermediate degree wave 3 peak in 2000. Change it again to Primary degree, and this template will work for wave 3-4-5 from the 2007 peak as well.  The corrections will be alternated and may be a very fast moving zigzag and not a flat. The idea with any template is to build, and get all the degree levels and their wave counts memorized,  so we never have to look into the book again.

The EWP book only shows us nice pretty waves all the same size, which never happens in the real world. Waves are never even and they are never always impulse waves.  Diagonal waves are a big part of any wave structure, but most wave analysts just ignore them and turn everything into impulse waves. 

If I dig pretty deep into my inventory of templates and idealized patterns, I’m sure I have a SC degree wave 3 all drawn out already. Of course, all the wave counts will end, or even disappear once we enter another ice age. 

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SP500, 1980-2017 Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Review

 

I think it is very important to always review all the wave positions, to make sure they still fit into the idealized sequences. Even expert wave analysts do not do this as most of them practice cosmetic wave counting. Structural and cosmetic wave counting is completely different from each other,  as one just covers up a wrong wave count by making a few changes, while structural wave counting tries to find the root cause.

For well over a decade, I was a cosmetic wave analyst as well, as I chased GSC and SC degree wave positions. None of them worked to my satisfaction until I changed the basic structure of the impulse and applied the wave count,  with wave 3 being the longest. This is exactly what the little blue book says happens in the stock market, as any wave 3 should “NEVER” be the shortest. In fact, it is wave 3 were all the extensions take place.  Until we get to the final last degree, when the 5th wave can extend. 

Since the 1932 bottom the majority of all wave analysts counted the 5th wave as the extended wave. The waves we see in the real world,  are the easy waves which develop to fool all the wave analysts that think wave analysis is just a simple matter of making numbers and letters.  How many times have we heard about wave analysts giving us instructions about simple trade setups?   Simple trade setups are just that, but if we are brainwashed with a simple trade type of a mentality, then we will never catch any major bottom before a major bull market.   Wave analysis has had two major failures since the 2000 top as both times the majority of wave analysts thought it would go much lower, but in fact it turned and soared the opposite way. This is not a failure of the EWP, but a failure of subjective thinking. 

I was following Steven Jon Kaplan and he was hitting tops and bottoms far better than all other wave analysts combined,  and I knew I had to incorporate what he sees into the EWP. 

In late 2008 he already talked about the, “Biggest bull market since the depression” while the wave analysts were still playing around with a massive bear market drawing simple  numbers and letters. The modern age of the EWP, started after 2000, is a subjective look at the markets. The EWP book makes no effort into how to figure out if our degrees, we are using are wrong. By using well drawn and well thought out idealized charts, it is easier to figure out what degree and patterns we need to make the sequences complete.

This is all specific to the degree, but if we have no clue where one stops and another degree starts then we can make all the numbers and letters we want, and they will have little meaning.  

I realized that that the pre 1980’s was actually the start of wave 1-2 in Primary degree with an expanded flat,  and what followed was another massive wave 3 extension in Primary degree. When I started to look at it from this perspective, then I realize all my SC and GSC wave counts were built from something that had no proper base. It was not until I abandoned all GSC degrees and then all SC degree wave counts, that I realized Cycle degree was a much better fit. Minute degree levels are not labeled in, but in general we need to see a minimum of 3 sets of 1-2 wave counts,  so we make sure that wave 3 is extended. Wave 1 is never the longest and if you think we see one, then chances are good it is part of an “A” wave. 

Yes, the 5 waves up to the 2007 peak is short, but wave 1 and 3 were about even. Only two sets of waves in the same degree can extend at the same time. The market crash from the 2007 peak ending in March 2009,  was an “ABC” zigzag crash, which I thought would produce at least an 80% counter rally. Yet, all expert wave analysts didn’t see it that way as they all saw the market crash much lower,  when they painted us a wave 1 in Primary degree. 

When I saw this happening, I realized this is one of the worst blunders in wave analysis I have ever seen. Every major blunder, if treated like an accident, should instantly kick in a major review. Every major accident always has an accident investigation team sent in, to find out the real cause. This is done so it can never happen again. 

That’s all too much like work to find the root cause of a major failed wave count, besides, it’s a real blow to the ego as well.  Going back 100 years or so is far too much like work. It’s far easier to make cosmetic changes to keep the simple trade setup wave positions alive.  

There were many indicators in late 2008 and early 2009 that the bearish crash was coming to a major end and I have already covered most of them in many previous updates.  From this great 2009 bottom the markets have sent us a clear vision of a massive 8 year bull market that the majority of  wave analysts counted as a big bear market rally. By 2013 I was convinced that this really fits much better as a diagonal 5th wave or a bad impulse wave, than it ever fits into a bigger corrective pattern.  By 2011 the stock mania started, as gold and gold stocks imploded in a predictable fashion.  The general stock market will always compete with gold investments, as history clearly shows. These swings will happen many more times so we have to be prepared for that. 

As a potential wave 3 top in Cycle degree the Gold/SP500 ratio is about 1.88,  which means that it takes 1.88 gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500.  I have one reading that shows 2 ounces as being very expensive and (.75) of a gold ounce as being cheap. These numbers will move at a snail’s pace, and I need to do a few more extreme calculations, but I’m sure we will see the SP500 fall well below the 1 ounce price level again. 

In any impending Cycle degree wave 4 bottom, this market does “NOT”  have to fall below 2009 price levels.  So many will be expecting for it to do just that, but I have faith in the markets to never do what the majority expects.  It will never go down in a straight line as that would be too simple, and if it stops dead at 800,  it will not surprise me at all. Even if the SP500 eventually travels well below this 800 number it will not destroy the Cycle degree 4th wave count in any way. Price never confirms a wave count, but the pattern does. 

For the rest of the year any bearish mood should intensify, so be prepared for anything

 

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Russell 2000 Monthly Chart, 2000-2017 Cycle Degree Review

 

 

I always look back to look at the flow of the charts, and that they still fit together sequentially from a Cycle degree perspective.  Either I review the big picture pre-emptivly, or the markets will do it for us.  The markets have no problem in shredding the best wave counts on a continuous basis, and they will keep doing this over and over. 

I have counted everything in GSC degree and then down one degree in SC. None of them made sense until I systematically drop down one more degree and looked at all the markets from a Cycle degree perspective. The EWP does not teach us how to find the correct degree, as it only promotes GSC or SC degree wave counts. 

All GSC degree wave counts have failed since the 2000 peak. When everyone tries to count 5 waves down in Primary degree, and they fail. Then this a clear signal something major is wrong with our wave counts. From the 2007 peak of a Primary degree wave 3 top, the markets crashed in a very straight down type of a move. 

Rarely are these types of moves impulse waves, at it did not take hindsight to figure that out. Five waves down into March 2009 was a forced wave count as they also forced and bent the trendlines to make their case. The 2009 bottom now is a good place to find a real wave position because it would technically then last for all time.  If the 2008 crash was an Impulse then chances would have been very good that the markets would never have c=harged to extreme highs like it did. The 2007-2009 crash was a flat type of a move, and is one of the reasons why the all the markets broke the 2007 one more time. 

In other words the 2009 bottom has been just a correction in an ongoing bull market, which the markets, then added 8 years of bliss for stock investors. Ok, that’s a bit of an exaggeration as the Flash crash around 2010 keeps those bullish stock investors fearful.

The 2009-2017 bull market was about as choppy as waves in the ocean in a stiff winter squall.  This has fooled every major wave analysts for years as the markets refused to die on the cues of a bunch of numbers and letters.  Around 2013 I switched and focused  on diagonal waves, as the markets seemed to be full of them. Diagonal waves are waves that are all connected zigzags, which can have flats in many of the “B” waves as well.

As long as all the wave analysts count three wave patterns as 5 then we are basically brainwashed at the expense of ignore 3 wave structure.  3 Wave structures are far more important to see than 5 waves as anybody can see an easy set of 5 waves.  Counting everything as an impulse is wrong and will never help us in determining where we might be.

In stocks the Primary wave three starting way back in the 60’s is the extended wave structure not some Cycle degree 5th wave.  Deleting or killing the  early Cycle degree was my first step which pushes the Cycle degree wave three, to a new position in March 2017. 

Every top or bottom, we need to have our idealized wave counts ready, to know what we should expect for a correction. In this case a Cycle degree wave 4 correction.  We must have a 3 wave bear market to confirm it all, not the 5 waves down that the majority have tried for the last 17 years. 

Yes, I put up the Cycle degree wave 3 at this time, but hopefully we are not too early. 

How deep can a Cycle degree wave 4 decline go? All the way back down if it wants to, but I’m sure a “B” wave counter rally will get in the way and spoil the bearish party, at least in the short term.  If we get a flat or a zigzag is still uncertain at this time, but I like the idea of a flat very much. Any Cycle degree triangle is last on the list, as we may not have the time to complete a triangle by the time solar cycle #25 starts.  Besides the Russell 2000 can’t fall to zero like they tried to tell us in early 2009.  Even the DJIA wave one bottom in 2009 would have sent the DOW to zero and that sure was not going to happen from my perspective. 

One thing is certain, and that is if the Russell 2000 hits a bottom at 450 or 350 is irrelevant. What will matter, is the pattern, it will make getting there. 

When this happens in the next 3-4 years, the majority will be fretting how much lower it will go, and they will be ill prepared to take advantage of the impending massive bull market that is sure to follow.

 

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Mini DJIA Review: Rocket Ride To 21,000!

 

 

Early this morning the DJIA started to make another vertical accent, which it has done many times before. As far as I know the DOW is setting records in the amount of times it has established new record highs.  Yes records have been  broken on the way up, and you can bet we will see some records broken on the way down.   The market just loves even numbers, but the DOW 20,000 just was not impressive enough to make the talking heads happy. DOW 21,000 has a much better ring to it, and 21,000 also can relate to the Fibonacci numbers much better.  

Of course, this has crushed all the bears and their bear skins are hanging on the hunting lodge wall right now.  This is the nature of the big beast and there is nothing we can do about it. The markets run on hope and greed which does not travel so violently like fear does.  Fear produces the violent swings which and fear dominates in the commodities markets all the time. 

As tempting as it may be, it is easy to ignore the choppy waves and call them impulse waves, but in reality nothing can  be further from the truth, as the waves overlap killing any impulse wave pattern.  Combine all that with extensions, 4th waves and possible ending diagonals, we have a mix of waves I seldom count out in detail.  Diagonals occur in 5th waves and we have been in a large degree (Primary) diagonal 5th wave, since March 2009. 

Don’t get think that some wave 2 crash in Cycle degree is coming, as that could be still 100 years away.  You may laugh, but there are wave counting experts out there,  that have a SC degree wave two bottom for 2009. They would have to expect 5 waves in Cycle degree already. 

The day that the DJIA may sit at 8,000 or 5,000 is the day I will call for a bull market and a 34,000 price forecast. 

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US Dollar 2008-2016 Primary And Cycle Degree Bull Market Review

 

dxy00-oct-15-2016

 

There are just too many choppy wave structures here, to classify the US dollar as a pure clean impulse. The Euro is very much the same, but the inverse of the US dollar. There is a good group of indicators out that makes it a rather futile effort, chasing a big bullish move in the USD at this time.

 The commercial and non-commercial traders positions is valuable information that needs to be looked at, when we are close  to major turnings, but this report does not come out until every Friday. The CFTC report, also known as the COT report, contains non-commercial and commercial net short and net long positions. 

Last week the commercials added 20,861 short contracts, which gave them a 6.7:1 net short position. This is a very bearish development  for the US dollar, and any imagined or real, super bullish rally, has really nowhere to go, but the opposite way. 

I doubt that any of those funny looking Fibonacci retracement tools will work, as there are literally millions of  Fibonacci relationships active at any one time.

The non-commercials, known as speculators, hedge fund traders, and trend chasers, did the opposite last week. They added 16,780 long contracts, which gave them a net long ratio, of 2.9:1. This is a classic US dollar bull trap setup.   

Not until these numbers all start to reverse, will we see another powerful US dollar rally.  Now that it is obvious that a top trend line can be used, I can draw in the bottom parallel line, based on the angle of my top line. Our recent US dollar rally should run out of steam soon, and then head south once more.  Overlapping is the name of the game in a diagonal wave, and this diagonal also confirms that the Primary degree run, is a 5th wave.  Recognizing that we are in a potential Cycle degree diagonal 5th wave, doesn’t come along every day, as this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to witness it before it happens.  

At 79 this would all start to fall apart very quickly, but technically the USD could fall to 73 and still fit a diagonal wave count. Mind you, the very last zigzag would be one wild ride, that will shock us when it happens. It also assures us that the last wave will be the extended wave.   

Any patterns that I see develop on a big scale, I use them in all other degree levels as well. This keeps the EWP simple and easier to learn. There are many of these types of moves, so it is nothing that I’m dreaming up. This is all very bullish for gold, as any US dollar decline, helps to push the price of gold up. 

Our present top has been counted much like this already, but I was out by several degrees. Maybe not this year, but certainly some time in the future, the USD will travel above the 100 price level again, and even soar towards 165. Yes, that is not a misprint, as the US dollar would head up to a Supercycle degree top, possibly by 2021.  

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Mini SP500 2010-2016 Wave Count Review

 

ESY00-July-18-2016

 

Mondays can be slow days, and I don’t always start with intraday charts. It is always a good time to review the bigger picture to keep this 2010-2016 bull market in focus.  There is a very high probability that this bull market is a diagonal 5th wave in a Primary degree, which should consist of 5 diagonal waves in Intermediate degree.

The last  peak in 2015 could be the wave 3 in Intermediate degree, followed by the 4th wave correction, into the 2016 bottom.  Even at this point there are still options (alternate wave positions) that can develop as we could even be at a “D” wave top soon.  Another sad excuse for yet another diagonal 5th wave can also happen. I don’t have a problem with an ending diagonal inside a diagonal 5th wave.  I believe the Cycle degree wave 3 is ahead of us on the linear time scale, and not behind us.   The wave pattern that we would get if wave 3 in Cycle degree were ahead of us will be nothing what people will expect, as it will destroy all major degree wave counts along the way.

Of course, modern day wave counters just give the wave count a cosmetic change, and instantly they buy their wave counts more time. With larger degree wave counts, they will always be right for decades as they think GSC degree will be a 600 year bear market.  I don’t believe that argument for a minute, as a SC degree correction from 1929 to 1932 only took 3 years.

  

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Mini DJIA Intraday Bull Market Review

 

YMU16-July-15-2016

 

The great looking H&S  pattern is now showing us how very bullish they can be.  My zigzag wave count is getting very close to being thrown out the window, as it is starting to push past what is reasonable for a zigzag. Besides, the second part looks too much like an impulse as well. With zigzags the two 5 wave sets,  alternate all the time and there would be a much bigger chance that the “B” wave could contain a triangle. 

As an impulse, we could be on the last 4th wave before another  substantial corrective wave 4 in Minute degree is close. The Minute degree 4th wave could end up being a triangle, as we approach the completion of this set of 5 waves. I still have a few options left but at this point I try to get it down to, two options. 

The EWP is all about the process of elimination, getting rid of all the wave counts that are not realistic, and maybe we end up with something that doesn’t go up when you want it to go down.  

Right now this third wave is not long enough, as I would like to see it stretch or extend a bit more. This anticipated 4th wave could take a week or so to play out, but we also may get a 5th wave extension.  

The next thing you know, the DJIA starts flirting with the 21,000 price level, as all the early bears may be forced out.  At any market top the early bears may seem to be right on the money, but they eventually have to Hold’em or Fold’ em, as very few people could handle the draw down when they are too early.

Some analysts increase their bearish warning, as the markets travel higher and higher. The pattern that the majority is expecting may not even materialize, as It all depends on where we have the last Cycle degree 4th wave base. Did it pass in the 70’s, 2002, or 2009, or is it still in our future?

I am working on it like the Cycle degree wave 3 peak is in our future, and we still have some time to go to get to a 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree. (2021?) My wave counts, all reflect a huge Cycle degree wave 3 extension, which started in 1932.   Without all 5 Cycle degree waves clearly found and completed, there is no chance that we can be in SC or GSC degree wave structures.

My goal is to find and track, these Cycle degree 5 wave positions, as they are the Gateway to the SC and GSC degree wave counts. Every major wave analyst, needs all 5 cycle degrees before his wave counts can become true.  I spent many years, counting in the two higher degrees, and that work is all online.  

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Mini DJIA Daily Chart Review: Friday, 13, 2016

 

YMY00-May-13-2016

 

Is Friday the 13th going to be a bad luck day for stocks? If anything, it’s always a good story, especially if I review my largest degrees that I have been using. I am making a big change to my wave count as this sideways choppy market has taken far too long. I can start to make an impulse fit, but it will be part of the diagonal family.  This wave count turns the May 2015 peak into the “B” wave in Primary degree, and it would push the Cycle degree back to the 2007 peak. 

This has the same effect as jumping into the future, but with a paper or electronic time machine. 

We are coming up to just about a year since the 2015 top, and from it we can at least give it 2-3 years to play out. If this is the start of the “big one”  that everyone has been waiting for, then it could still take a few years to get to the bottom. SC and GSC degree wave counters will be jumping up and down with glee, as their big 5 waves in Primary degree has finally started. Except there is one small problem with that, and that is the degree of this decline. Even though it may only be a difference of one degree level, it will make a big difference once the bottom is near. Being out by one degree is like being out by miles in sequential wave counting.  

  I will create a bigger wave count later on the weekend, but changing our thinking or keeping an open mind is necessary, as we could be in for 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. The markets can still fight us all the way, or an ending diagonal may also still form. Either way I’m going to use the Primary degree “B” wave until further notice and we have little room to move to the upside with.

With a “B” wave top it would be the first and only expanded flat top, which are very bullish wave patterns in the long run. They also don’t run that deep, but it must surpass the 2009 low to get confirmed. DJIA 6000 or bust, but all the SC and GSC degree counters may be calling for DOW 1000!  This DOW 1000 forecast will never happen!  If this crowd is setting up for another failure will not surprise me, as the herd never learns, and make no mistake about it, wave analysts travel in herds! Maybe they travel in flocks as they parrot each other   

  This also means Apple the big elephant in the DJIA room, should have much further to fall as well.  

 

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Gold 1980-2016 Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Count Review

 

GCY00-May-4-2016-b

It is always a good idea to look back in time, to see how things fit together from the larger perspective. In this case I am showing you a perspective from a Cycle degree linear chart setting.  This shows that the 2011 peak may be a Primary degree wave 3 top, and the bear market which will be about 5 years long this fall, would be an “ABC” crash with and ending diagonal.  Our present rally from late 2015 would be a diagonal wave 3-4 in Minor degree with one more diagonal wave 5 to go. Ending diagonals, develop on the tips of “C” waves, so that would also be a fitting pattern to the end of a bear market. Ending diagonals are real confidence boosters for me, but we have to be very careful so not to be too subjective.

 I look at everything from a Cycle degree perspective, and hunting the 5 waves in Cycle degree is my sole purpose as without them being confirmed, “no” SC or GSC degree wave count can exist on this planet! 

Gold would have to suffer through one more decline with a length impossible to count out at this time, but any new low below $1050 would help to confirm it. As I have mentioned many times the pattern changed in mid 2013 which would be the beginning of the ending diagonal. The late 2015 bottom didn’t stop anywhere important as it didn’t even stop at a potential previous 4th wave dip. Gold is declining as I post and I would expect it to still swing widely as job reports come out. 

I scratch my head all the time as the world brags that commodities run on supply and demand yet they act the complete opposite at the extremes. In 1980 they said gold was going to $2000 yet it crashed to $300 a few years later. Then when everybody was dumping gold in 1999 gold turns and goes on a massive bull market defying all logic. 

All the banks and countries were selling gold, and funds were unloading gold stocks as fast as they could, yet a gold bull market was born. 

Then in 2011 when all the banks and investors have been buying and told gold is going to $5000 or $10000, it turns and starts on a major bear market. Now the whole situation may become reversed one more time if the ending diagonal gets confirmed.  Contrarians know this is how the markets work and they don’t need any Elliott Wave to tell them so.  Some of the gold stock ETFs have seen 100% gains in just 4 months or so.  I bet very few Elliottitions saw it coming and were in position before it surged.

Short term I am very bearish, but with the potential of this wave count we can see a bull gold party coming. It still may take 2016 to play out, but it will be a new story once this bear market has completed.   

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Mini DJIA Intraday Review

 

YMM16-April-28-2016

Anything can still happen as all the DJIA has to do is rally one more time and we have yet another 5 waves pointing up.  There is very little room to move and right about now I would love to see this pattern break to the downside to help confirm a potential impulse type wave.  

Many times I will not fill in every little wave count as that is very silly and time consuming. All it takes is one critical move the wrong way and the next thing you know the entire wave count has to be redone.  I post far more frequently than many other wave counters do and it means the difference between doing 8-13 positions or 89 positions.  Did all that fancy detailed wave counting help at the 2009 bottom? No, it did not, as all the SC and GSC degree wave counters missed the biggest bull market since the depression. 

It also makes no sense anymore, that our present bull market is just another big bear market rally as it would be the biggest and longest bear market rally in financial history. Besides, there is no such thing as a double expanded flat top.  Any expanded flat top is extremely bullish once the bottom is in, as they also do not produce the super long “C” waves that the SC and GSC degree wave counters desperately need.  They have started their 5 waves down in Primary degree many times since the 2000 top, but it has failed every time.  

There is no certainty that wave three in Cycle degree has completed, but it would take a Primary degree correction to fully play out before the 4th wave bottom shows itself.   I don’t think we will see a huge Cycle degree 4th wave triangle as that would not have enough time to finish by the 2020 time period, after all the Roaring 2020s may start by then.   

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