Platinum Weekly Chart Bull Market Review

I changed the wave count around a bit making the 2011 peak a short 5th wave. The commercial hedgers are still net short, but that hasn’t stopped the platinum price from rallying.

During the 2017-2018 sideways pattern sure fits a zigzag very well which crashed to new record lows, before platinum started cranking up again.  If the bulls are in control then the simple bearish trend line will not contain platinum prices.

The $760 price level is also the second time that platinum hit a major bottom which also happened with the 2008 market crashes. That fact alone could send prices soaring.

The sad fact is that the pattern in the last 3 or so years, can also work as an expanded pattern. The “C” wave bullish phase can still travel above the 2016 “A” wave peak. The rising bottom wedge is also very bullish so any nightmares of platinum prices going to $400 soon, may have a few more years to wait.

Even once this 5 wave run in Minor degree has played out, it can also be another bear market rally.  I think $1200 is attainable but then another platinum crash should happen.

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Platinum Monthly Chart Review

If you are looking for a “Head Scratcher”  wave count, then Platinum will provide it for us!  As much I would love to turn bullish on Platinum there is a good chance the bear trend is not over just yet.

We do have a quadruple bottom base at the $755 price level but that does not mean it will hold and then soar in a new bullish phase. The wedge pattern sure is a bullish signal, but the present pattern could push to a new record low just the same.  Commercial traders are still net short so that sure gives me pause in chasing a very bullish wave count.

All Commodities run on the diagonal wave structure and Platinum has its fair share of diagonal waves which are zigzags connected together.  I think the 2008 peak is wave 3 in Cycle degree but that produced a Primary degree wave count that I could not make fit.

After the 2008 peak, I had to drop down my degree level by one, as the odds of a Cycle degree 4th wave finish in the near future is still very slim at this time.

I would love to be more bullish but the commercials do not support it.

Being too early does produce a bunch of pain due to the leverage built into all commodities. Even the ETF, PPLT will give you pain if we are too early. PPLT is about 1/10 the price of a  single Platinum ounce and is sitting around $78.80 USD.

 

 

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Platinum Weekly Chart Bear Market Review

This weekly chart of platinum is only about $28 away from hitting another major bear market low. Any price below $760 would confirm that the big bear market which started in 2008, is still alive and well. Little over a 10-year bear market and it’s still not finished. Bear markets don’t stop on a dime, even though at times it might look like it. This bearish phase could still twist and turn just to frustrate the hell out any wave analyst.

The best scenario would be a huge spike to the downside clearly visible on the bigger time series charts. In other words, this bearish move can still do a lot of damage to a bullish position. Commercials are still net short here, so I would like to see those numbers swing the opposite way before we get closer to a bottom.

I think my last Market Vane Report came in on the 12th and it shows a new record low amount of bulls present at 20%. This is the lowest reading in “All” of 35 different asset classes that make up the report. The 24-month low bullish number was 16%, so it will be interesting to see if 16% gets beat again. The lower the number, the more bulls there will be that can come back and drive a new bullish phase.

The bearish phase from the 2016 peak to the first 2018 peak is the same pattern as gold and silver have, except gold is the only asset that ended pointing up. Gold’s price action is brainwashing us because many mainstream analysts cover gold, but platinum is pretty well ignored.

I have to scan many mining blogs to catch the intensity of the platinum news, which I don’t have to do with gold. Any business related blog will have gold commentary.

 

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Platinum Weekly Chart Bear Market Review

This platinum bear market is about 7 years long with a major bottom in August of 2018.  With that kind of a bottom, we could turn very bullish.  There are no COT reports due to the government shutdown, but at least the Market Vane Report keeps on coming, which I will comment on later.

If we look at the pattern from 2016 to the 2018 peak, this pattern is identical to gold except with gold the entire pattern is pointing up. Virtually all other gold-related asset classes during the same time period have been facing down or sideways.  Silver was on the verge of a new bear market low while the price of gold was pointing up.

If the pattern in platinum can dip to new record lows, there is no reason why gold and silver can’t eventually do the same thing. The excuse that gold is special due to safe-haven buying is all pure BS as emotional moves never last long.  The pattern we see at the intraday scale looks corrective to me so a new record low should happen. Mind you it could be as slow as molasses flowing in the winter.

Any price plunge below $750 would sure help to support my near term bearish stance. After that, I will turn very bullish for a bigger long term bullish phase.  One reason I will turn bullish is the Market Vane Report (MVR) which showed that only 22% bulls are present.  In other words, there are a large number of bulls that will come back.  From a list of 35 MV items covered, the 22% low in platinum had the lowest reading out of all other asset classes.  The next lowest reading was the S. Franc at 30% bulls.

Palladium is at the opposite end, which is not covered in the MVR.

PPLT is the ETF equivalent to this futures chart and it looks like the ETF is doing a good job of tracking the metal.

 

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Platinum Weekly Chart: New Record Low Update!

 

I recently posted the COT report for Platinum which was negative as the commercial hedgers switched to net short positions in 5 of the precious metals.   Palladium is making new world record highs, while platinum has been crashing to new record lows from its 2008 peak. Talk about a wild inverse picture that palladium and platinum are showing this month and its been going on for many years already.

For a few years the platinum decline had a hard time getting going, but with diagonal wave structures it can take a long time to sort out and I will still work on it. Notice how platinum has the exact same triangle pattern as gold has, except in gold they call the same move a bullish move, while the exact same pattern in platinum is confirmed that it was a bear market rally. From the March 2008 peak to the October 2008 bottom, the platinum bear market rally has been completely retraced by a margin of about $6!  I think there are still new lows to come as the remainder of this 5 wave sequence still needs to finish.

Just because it’s a small degree decline, does not mean it can’t extend, and make the 4th wave rally long and complex. Silver is the closest to making the exact same move, yet the bullish gold analysts swear up and down that gold is going to soar. Once this triangle is finishing, then I am forced to look for a 1 or even 2 degrees higher positions.

In this case, it could be wave 4 ending in Cycle degree. Another bullish phase should happen but any impending bullish rally would take a long time to show itself more clearly. This gives me the extra time to see a proper pattern develop. About the only good thing that will happen is that I no longer will be a bear towards platinum. I will not shy away from being a bear when I see metal asset classes still have more downside to go! This does not make me very popular with metal investors, especially the gold bugs!

 

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Platinum Monthly Chart: More Downside To Come?

It’s been a long time since I looked at platinum. When we go back to the 1980 peak we see what followed what looks like 5 waves down. Ok, but it can count as a flat if we see a single zigzag first, then “B” wave rally and a choppy 5 wave decline. (3-3-5)  I saw the pattern during the 90’s as a running zigzag. I’m not inventing a new pattern, but zigzags do have a habit of never being even.

Either way, that bearish phase ended in late 1998 before another rocket move soaring to the $2100 price level. From early 1985 platinum can also work as a big zigzag terminating in late 2007, which is a lot more common in diagonal wave structures.  Then the big crash of 2008 sent platinum south, stopping hard at the $800 price level again in late 2015.

This $800 price level is important because platinum has pivoted around this number 4 times already, since the 1980 peak.  If platinum gets close to the $800 again, then we are faced with a big downside breakout situation. This may not stop until platinum hits the $550-$600 price range.

Since the 1980’s peak platinum resistance produced major reversals at the $550-$600 price range, so this price has significant meaning.

At the late 2007 peak, I show a Cycle degree wave 3 top, which I used to have back at the 1980 platinum peak. I spent years with wave 3 in Cycle degree at the 1980’s peak, but this would move us into SC degree wave counts to soon. I refuse to play the big wave count game anymore, due to the bull markets they have missed.

It takes an incredible amount of time to get a wave count refined to a point we can “see” bull markets coming, but todays wave traders only use the EWP as short term trade setups!

Continue reading “Platinum Monthly Chart: More Downside To Come?”

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Platinum Crash And Bull Market Review

 

Platinum-June-20-2016

 

I haven’t looked at Platinum for some time, but with a fresh chart, I started to look for an alternate pattern.  I looked at that crazy decline and I counted it out as a “running triangle “B” wave”. When the running “E” wave finished, then the remainder 5 waves down started making sense. Platinum joined the commodities bear market in 2011, with a present bottom in January, 21, 2016.

Looking at it from the running triangle perspective, then we can look for the next idealized bullish phase that could be in progress already. This would be a “C” wave bull market, and technically this “C” wave should retrace the $1900 price level, hopefully with some room to spare. This would work out to about a 100% price gain for platinum. 

At any other time this big correction could be the start of a big 5 wave sequence, but if you get the degree wrong, I promise you, it will never work. 😛 Any rally from this point forward has to show it means business as any impulse wave structure, would send Platinum soaring.  

With this chart you can’t help but be bullish, in the longer term, but we have to be on watch for a single zigzag pattern that could end early. Since any “C” wave could be a diagonal, then the wave counts would change dramatically.  We need a Minor degree wave 1 which may not be completed as wave 1 in Minuette degree may be finished or has already finished. 

 

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