Nasdaq Intraday Bearish Review

The Nasdaq was rolling over in July already which works like a diagonal starting out. If we’re lucky the patterns will smooth out a bit but that may also be wishful thinking at this point.

With there being a potential Cycle degree correction (Bear Market) the markets have a long way to go before we could expect a return to a real bull market.

This may not happen until solar cycle 25 dominates sunspot activity.  Our present little rally looks like another bearish rally and if that is true then the 7400 and 7200 price level will not hold.

The 7000 price level is another potential price target for some more support but eventually, the 7000 price level will not hold as well.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio got better at 5 but is still a far cry from being the cheapest of 1.18.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio doesn’t have to go that cheap but it sure would help to see the ratio get better than 3:1.

The commercials for the Nasdaq are net short but not by any extreme amount. The speculators have the opposite side of this deal as they are all pile onto the long side. Both parties can’t be right so sooner or later one side is going to panic.


Hits: 10

Quick Nasdaq Intraday Review

July 16, looks like the last record high and since then the Nasdaq has made some wild moves that could be the start of a new trend.  Lower highs are not yet visible or long enough but all it takes is one more new record low which can get investors into a mini panic.

Antitrust investigations can get investors nervous as the stories are out that the SEC has officially started investigations of the “FANG” stocks.

Some analysts are very bullish on stocks as we hear stories about a melt-up is coming. Any potential melt-up is pretty hard to swallow at this time as it would start at world record highs. A melt-up from this point is next to impossible as the Gold/Nasdaq ratio is already super expensive at 5.6.

Commercials are net short but yet not quite extreme enough.

We are getting closer and closer to the fall and the fall time period can produce some ugly melt-downs.

Hits: 21

Nasdaq 100 E-Mini: 2000-2019 Wedge Review

Without a doubt, the Nasdaq marches to a different drummer as the 2007 peak never reached new record highs as most other indices did during that rally. For now, the pattern from the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom can work as a zigzag but it would have to be a “Running Zigzag”  or what the book calls “Truncated”.

The 2009 bottom is still my Primary degree bottom followed by a blistering bull market. Drawing the trend line across the two tops and one trend line up from the 2009 bottom, what do we end up with?

We have the mother of all “Rising Wedges” starting to squeeze the two trends into the cone or “Apex” of the wedge. What do you think will happen when the stock bulls keep getting squeezed into a corner? I will include the link from Investopedia that has a good explanation regarding “Rising Wedges”. 

All investors are distracted with the fundamentals while the “Big Wedge” is giving us a very bearish warning.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction but the Nasdaq has no short term support that I can see at this time. Above all the impending bearish phase should be obvious but the crowd may not know until they see it in hindsight. A lot of good that does us unless we take “Hindsight” and always turn it into “Foresight”. The simple answer is that if we ignore the financial past we are doomed to repeat it. All sources of better fitting wave counts are found in “Hindsight” not by flipping our present wave counts thousands of times.

We still have time before solar cycle 24 ends so hang onto your hat, as the winds can change direction and start blowing in from the North West!

Hits: 31

Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Since late 2018 the Nasdaq has created a bottom and has been on a bullish move that is hard to imagine that it could still be in a bear market rally.  Only time can give us an answer and at this time there still is a good chance that a new record high is going to be established. If that is the case then the right side should eventually push that flat line up.

A right shoulder in a bull market would push much higher again, but if a bearish turn awaits us then the right shoulder would just crash.  I would give that right shoulder about a 50-60% price retracement and after that, a complete bull market failure can still happen.

At the beginning of bull markets, right shoulders fail to hold back the bears most of the time, but when we are closer to the end of a bullish phase, the right shoulder is less likely to hold.

Last week the Market Vane report showed that on the 12th  there were 68% bulls present. That is down from a 24 month high of 91%.  The more bulls present in the survey the less chance of a big bunch of stock bulls still to come in.  Of course, the only way the bullish herd can push it higher is if they just came out of a secret tunnel they’ve been hiding in. 🙂

God knows the world has been on a massive tunnel digging spree, maybe there is a big group of stock bulls living in the Center of the Earth!

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is always at work and you won’t find any ratio in your analytical toolbox. The Gold/Ratio of anything always gives us a reading when something is expensive or cheap when compared to a Troy ounce of gold, in US dollars.

A cheap reading once was 1.18:1 and my most expensive reading was 6.38:1. Today the Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 5.61:1 which still makes the Nasdaq very expensive.


Hits: 19

Nasdaq Daily Chart Review

Several wave counts I was working on have now started to break down and no longer fit. This always calls for a review and at this time the obvious move is my Cycle degree wave 3 August 2018 peak.  The December 2018 bottom and our present rally display more and impulse wave than a counter rally wave.   Many rallies in the past also showed 5 waves up but ended up getting completely retraced.

The Nasdaq is still under a Death Cross and now has run up against the 200-day MA line. If this trend is going to continue then at least the 200-day MA can offer some resistance, but a bear market rally can completely retrace this entire bullish phase. Only time will tell but the tech is taking a beating around the world as its being used to brainwash all of us. Our smartphones have already turned us into digital zombies and governments use it to spy on everybody!

The recent attacks on the Australian parliament are just small examples of how tech is being used to try and control us. Every democratic government is coming under attack and Canada is no exception.

If you think I’m paranoid, I have a reason to be since my Facebook account got hacked last year. How many times have you heard about a Bitcoin robbery and hacked accounts with hundreds of millions gone missing?  As you walk the street or are just shopping, look up to the nearest cam and wave, as we are constantly being spied on.  Soon when you are caught doing something illegal they can fine you, and steal the fine out of your account by the time you cross the street.

All this may sound crazy but I’m reading about that stuff all the time. We haven’t even touched social media as it is the biggest spreader of false news today.  The point is that tech comes in cycles and a bearish cycle is on its way.

The expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio topped out at 6.38:1 and today this ratio stands at 5.25:1. We have a long way to go before the Nasdaq becomes cheap again when compared to gold.  Short term the markets can head higher but there are large amounts of protective sell stops below all present prices.

Hits: 27

Nasdaq Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

So far the markets have refused to die, as they keep on ticking and heading higher. Many are convinced the correction is over and higher highs are coming. Dynamic bullish moves like this happen in bear market rallies frequently and most of the time they never last that long as well.  From a Cycle degree perspective, every bear market rally gets retraced which in the Nasdaq started from the 5900 price level.   Any move below this 5900 price level would confirm that our present rally was just another fake.

If investors are getting fooled with just a Minor degree bullish move then there is little hope in convincing anyone that there are Primary degree bear market rallies.

The SP500, DJIA and the Midcaps all seem to match this Nasdaq rally on the intraday scale, which I think is a bear market rally. The Nasdaq has dipped into the previous wave 2 which automatically makes it a diagonal pattern. The Nasdaq has already backed off but another short spike may still turn up.

The COT reports are unreliable until after the government goes back to work. This is when the gold ratio database is helpful how expensive or cheap the markets are when we always calculate using the futures gold cash price.  My new record for the Gold/Nasdaq ratio was 6.38:1, and today it is at 5.1:1. This is a bit cheaper but still on the extreme expensive side. Cheap was 1.18:1, so I would like to see a 3:1 or even a 2:1 ratio.



Hits: 25

Nasdaq Intraday Chart Crash Update!


The Nasdaq peaked 3 days ago and since then the Nasdaq has reversed, and is now heading south. Any new record high can always be the “Last” record high for the year. This would be a “B” wave peak in Intermediate degree which is part of an expanded pattern for Cycle degree wave 3.  I will keep these updates a bit short, but all my indiceies I cover seemed to have turned south in the last few days. The bears attack from above, as fundamantals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes. In general, markets act to the opposite of fundamentals, as the majority all tried to bail out in late 2009. The majority cannot see crashes or bull markets coming, but with the huge “Boomer” demographic shift in effect, you can bet there will be deflation on our future. This will take until 2022, when I expect Cycle degree wave 4 to bottom, which is the same length of time the markets crashed for in the 1929 and 1932 bear markets.

Hits: 23

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Cycle Degree Wave 3 Review


Since my last update I had to move my “C” wave in Minor degree up as I was still early by a week or so. The last peak was September, 3, 2018 at the 7720 price level. The real peak where I have to count from, was way back in January of 2018.  I’m sure we can hear the crying how I can’t count this way, but I see so many of these that ignoring them is not an option.  It is the “C” wave that gives it away, and we have to wait until the end of the month to see if the Nasdaq 7720 price level holds.

In a fit of madness stops or options get triggered which still could spike the Nasdaq higher, but I think the markets are running on fumes. Just scanning all the commercial COT report positions, there are vertualy no net long positions anywhere. Painting a bullish picture in stocks, will show you how the majority of wave analsyts can fall into the “mood trap” just like any other human does.

See all that empty space below our present high? What do you think is down there? Nothing but PUT options and protective sell stop orders, and when they get hit, all those bulls will turn into instant bears.

Stocks also follow the 30 year cycles but they sure can crash together like they did in 2008!

The “C” wave decline in Intermediate degree could be fairly steep but will only be obvious after it has formed.  The Nasdaq is the odd ball here as it seems to have pushed this “C” wave further than all the others. This will be last of the Internet bubbles in a long time, as the internet has matured and we don’t need to invent a new smart phone.

Readers have to make up their own minds if things are, “Different This Time”. Sure it’s different, but so was 1929, 1987, 2ooo, and 2007! Take our 2018 peak and count back 89 years and we get 1929! Ignoring the 30 year inflationary and deflationary cycles is not an option. T-Bonds have a 120-year cycle that started in 1981. (two 60-year Cycles).

We also have a rising wedge which every technical analsyt knows about, but only a few have the confidence to read them.

Once this turns then things can speed up, as panic will take control of the crowd, and no more record highs are produced. Add 3 years to our January peak and we coud see a bottom by 2022, so buckle up and watch all the bullish investment prices evaporate and disappear.

Gold, silver are pushing higher so money leaving stocks can flow into gold stocks in a flash, if the GDX holds it’s price level.

Hits: 24

Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

Hits: 53

Nasdaq Intraday Decline Update

The Nasdaq hit a major peak in March before it decided to crash again. I have conflicting tops between the Nasdaq and the other 4 major indices that I cover, but I think the Nasdaq top is the real deal, and the top is a good place to start a bearish count down from. Notice that I have a small H&S pattern already completed, and if we are still in the bullish phase, the Nasdaq will  lift the right side of the invisible horizontal line dramatically. I will still keep the present decline as a Minute degree declining 5 wave sequence,but will adjust later on if my degree level is too low.

If the bearish scenario is true, then all popular support levels will get trashed.  Those that are talking about buying the dips don’t realize how big, “The Big Dip” will get.  At a bare minimum the Nasdaq will retrace the 4000  price level, which also puts the Nasdaq into the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

One lesser degree in a Cycle degree correction is a Primary degree, not the Intermediate degree bottom at the 4000 price level.  We have a long way to go with many twists and turns, but sooner or later the fog will clear and the basic shape of 3 simple corrections will take place. The triangle is my last choice as the solar cycle #25 will not allow it to fully play out. When solar cycle #25 starts to crank up, then all stock bears and bearish wave counts will get terminated.

Sure the bottom may still be three years away (2021) and the investors at that bottom will be the ones that have lots of dry gunpowder ready. (Cash)

Buying low at a market bottom is rarely done by the average investor, as they will be wiped during the “Big Dip” decline.

Hits: 16

Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Update

Since the Nasdaq bottom on February, 9th the Nasdaq turned in a very bullish performance, that has gone above and beyond any wave 2 rally. The Nasdaq is now about 100 points away from breaking a new record high, so until this proves otherwise, I have to keep an open mind that a wild spike could still push the Nasdaq higher.

I’m confident that the 2015 correction, was an Intermediate degree wave 3-4, (Expanded). Wave 5 in Intermediate degree did extend  which makes it about even with wave 3 in Intermediate degree. Only 2 out of 3 sets of 5 waves can extend, with wave 1 always been one of the shortest. If it looks like wave 1 is long and or extended then chances are extremely high that it is just an “A” wave.

From the bottom of wave 4 in early 2016 I can fit the entire bull run into a diagonal but I had to move wave 3 in Minor degree up.

All the other indices I cover have to play catch up to the Nasdaq, but we know that they have done this in the past. If something has happened once, then I look for and use these moves with all degree levels. We only have 3 trading days left before the end of the month, and on the 1st we also have a full moon! Any moon cycles can be turnings, but they are unreliable in the direction they want to turn.

The longer any  bullish phase carries on, the shorter our time period to the end of solar cycle #24 will be. This could happen in late 2020 or 2021.  Overall, we could still get a 3 year bear market, but anything shorter is not a problem. What has to happen is that the scientists that track the solar cycles tell us, that solar cycle #25 is poking through in the northern latitudes parts of the sun. Solar cycle bottoms are bear market and wave count “Terminators”, and it will happen again with the start of solar cycle #25. The solar poles are not flipped until the magnetic polarity of the sunspots also change.

Hits: 27

Nasdaq 100 “Big Dip” Update.

The Nasdaq did not display a double bottom as it crashed well below the previous low, followed by a wild rally as well. We could be on the second set of a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, and a small third 1-2 wave may also show itself.  After that, any 5 wave structure will be harder and harder to see, but we would also be running out of degrees after a wave 4 in Minor degree has finished. This could take all of February to play out, so it’s not going to happen overnight.

Usually all 5 waves play out in a rapid fashion, but then this market will give us a hard time once an “A” wave in Intermediate degree has finished. There are still many variables that can happen, so until a new record low is achieved, this market can give us a hard time.

As I post the Nasdaq is pushing higher, but mid week can also be great reversal days.  Between the 5800 and 5600 price levels we could run into some strong resistance, so any 5th wave in Minor degree should be ending at that time as well.

Hits: 11

Nasdaq Intraday Downside Breakout!

The Nasdaq decline, we’ve had in the last few days, not longer fits as an impulse very well. I started to get some 3 wave moves, that work better as zigzags, so it’s better to switch to diagonal wave counting for now. There is the potential for a downside breakout situation to end at another “A” wave in Minute degree. We may have to wait until next week before this starts to play out, but there are many sell orders being stacked up below present prices, especially at any potential double bottom.

When the market has switched to the bearish side, then bad news should keep forcing the markets lower. Over time the “Bad news” will no longer work driving the markets down, but instead they will start to recover shortly after the “Bad news” comes out. This usually means we are going to be switching back to a bullish cycle.

With this market crash, fundamental analysts see no change in the fundamentals at all, so they remain very bullish on this market. Fundamentals don’t drive prices, but prices change fundamentals.

Predict a price crash when great fundamentals exist, and you will see the economic fundamentals change after the price change.  The fear of rate increases could be the new “fundamental problem”,  even though they already have known about the higher rates for months already. The biggest fundamental change is that Janet Yellen is “out” and Jerome Powell is “in” which happened on February, 5th, 2018

The Fed – Jerome H. Powell, Chairman

The markets had already started to crash as Jerome Powell stepped in,  so maybe the markets will hate what the new “Fed” still thinks it has to do.

All that money that was dumped into the markets in January 2018, has now been wiped out! Sent to a digital graveyard, in a puff of electronic smoke. The majority has no clue what’s going to happen in the next 2-3 years as they think just a simple 10% correction is going to happen and then the bull market will continue on its merry way.

Good luck with that, as in order for that to happen, we need the majority to hate stocks again. The public is still, “in love” with stocks so we are far away from any meaningful correction being completed. At a very minimum the Nasdaq should travel well below the 4000 price level,  and that’s just to get warmed up, as some simple minded 10% or 20% correction will not do it.

Hits: 12

Nasdaq Surges To A New Record High

This morning the Nasdaq and the other indices all seemed to hit new record highs. This could still go on an on but every new record high also calls for a correction. How deep or long the next correction will be all depends on the what wave position and the degree we are presently soaring too.  Since that 2015 bottom the markets have surged in one big move that had very small corrections in it. This is producing a vertical move that even the roaring 20’s can’t match. Even the DJIA has a vertical ascent with only small corrections. Eventually all trends come to an end, as bull markets plant the seeds of their own destruction.

When the worlds analysts are constantly blasting out the bullish hype to the rest of the world, “Who are they talking to”?  Only the emotional traders are playing this game and I’m sure the protective sells stops are all starting to bunch up below present prices.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is sitting at a bit above 5:1 which means it takes 5 Troy gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA. It has been rolling around this 5:1 ratio since December 2017, so it seems to have run into a potential ceiling. When it does reverse, the Nasdaq ratio will start to compress and eventually start heading back down to a 2:1 ratio.

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

A week or so ago, they found a huge problem in most chip designs and they have been scrambling to get some type of patches out to all the operating systems.  It is important that you take all updates as soon as they come in. Apple has already updated its iPhone OS and the Mac OS, but there may be more to come. All this just adds to the breakdown of fundamentals in the tech industry.

Chinese Workers Abandon Silicon Valley for Riches Back Home – Bloomberg

This exodus out of Silicon Valley takes some American made ideas and exports them back to China. They can become millionaires much easier than in the USA.

Bitcoin Could End Up Using More Power Than Electric Cars – Bloomberg

I laughed when I read about the power consumption used in Bitcoin mining, which just goes to show that power outages can wreck havoc in the tech sector.  Any wild CME from the sun also creates power outages, so this tech world is highly susceptible, not just from hackers.

Hits: 27

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Record High Update

The last part of December, 2017 we saw the Nasdaq decline, but this decline didn’t last that long once 2018 rolled around. The bulls still dominate this show, but with the wild gyrations going on we know this market is becoming unstable.  At this time we have two previous 4th wave bottoms, where we can find support. Where it stops is unknown at this time, but we also know that markets can travel well below any previous 4th wave bottom.

For any correction to have meaning, this Nasdaq must crash well below 6240. That will just barely get the Nasada bears warmed up, never mind completing a full correction.  How deep the Nasdaq bear market can, or will go, all depends on the degree level, that we are presently ending.

The Nasdaq is also coming to a Cycle degree wave 3 end, but it sure can fool us in the short term. At this intraday scale the charts can blow low degree moves very quickly as the market patterns are pretty sensitive. If all those expert wave analysts are counting the Nasdaq as a 5 wave structure in Primary degree, then they are too early by at least 2 degree levels. They will also be late in calling a bottom when it does arrive, just like what happened in early 2009.

I may not know at any specific time, as to the exact wave count I may be on, but I do have a very strong idea when I see a wave count, that it will never fit or work.

This morning the Gold/Nasdaq ratio was a bit above 5:1 which is the highest ratio I have recorded in the last year or so. One day we will kiss this 5:1 ratio goodbye, and start heading down to 2:1 again.

Hits: 13

Nasdaq Intraday 2016-2017 Review

The Nasdaq has been on an incredible bull market for all of 2016, but it really took off after Donald Trumps election.  The start of November 2016  is when the 5th wave started to extend which I can only fit into a diagonal wave structure.  Much of June 2017 was another zigzag correction ending on a diagonal 4th wave.  The 5th wave also was another zigzag. Even the last”C” wave alternated in size and was really slowing down.

The real top so far was about 6012 and is struggling to go higher.  At this point I would expect another correction, but it could also be a much bigger move than many expect. Cycle degree wave 3 is also looking for a home with the Mini DJIA even though the 2009 bottom never achieved new record lows. 

The VIX has also closed off the big gap, touching $9.85 on the way down before it started to rally again. Fear is ripe to make another comeback, which is very bearish for stocks. Today is also the new moon date, so if we hit a peak and the markets turn, it would surprise me a bit. The moon cycles are not as reliable as some may think, but at times they sure can create a dramatic reversal.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has been at an extreme for some time already as it now takes 4.58 ounces just to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. This has been broken twice in 2017, which also indicates a double top when ratios are concerned. The more times this ratio gets hit, the more it signals another extreme.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom may never hit a new record low, so we have to be ready for that when the time comes.

We have potential support bases at the 4000 and 2000 price levels, but that does not mean the Nasdaq will stop dead on those price levels. The overriding factor is the pattern, reports of insider buying or smart money flowing into the Nasdaq. When the time comes I’m pretty sure we don’t have to hunt too much as Steven Jon Kaplan usually reports insider buying to his subscribers. 

Hits: 4

Nasdaq Intraday Update

This morning the Nasdaq spiked and then reversed very quickly. It looks like a nice run that can keep right on going to the moon, but emotions have a real problem of infecting others, when they are sealed in a space suit, so emotions going to the moon is not an option.  😯 

If the bigger bearish phase is in control, then it’s not rocket science that the Nasdaq has to fall below 5560. Of course, if you’re a climate scientist, then anything goes, until you’re caught manipulating the numbers. 

So far the Nasdaq has been leading the way on a sliding path heading south, in what could be a Cycle degree 4th wave correction. This Cycle degree could take until the 2021 time period to play out, as 2021 could be the start of  solar cycle #25. The last thing we should be at the start of any solar cycle is to maintain a bearish outlook. All bearish opinions and bearish wave positions at that time, will get terminated, just like what happened in 2008-2009.  2021 is also 89 years from the 1932 bottom, so from my perspective it has significant meaning. 

Looking 3-4 years ahead in the markets is never a certainty, but the only certainty is that the majority can never take advantage of it, when another major buying low presents itself. 

Hits: 17

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Review

The last major high with the Nasdaq was back in early June 2017, and since then has started to make a bearish looking decline. In any diagonal decline short term rallies do happen, and they can be very violent moves. The top trend line points to a potential top where a bearish run can rally to, but to confirm that we are over on the bearish side, the Nasdaq would have to fall and create new record lows. Options expiration dates can hammer any stock market so this adds to the potential bearish scenario.

There is nothing strange that an index can lead the way, while the rest are still struggling just off record highs like the Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcap stocks.  I believe that ultimately stocks will see, a Cycle degree high,  or have already seen a Cycle degree top.  I will hold the placing of this Cycle degree wave 3 until we get further confirmation.  We have to wait until hopes of seeing a new record high in 2017 are reduced to a point, where they no longer have the time to rally to make a new record highs. 

With Apple and Tesla also taking big hits to the downside, and Microsoft laying off workers, then this all helps to make the bigger bearish case more realistic. 

Hits: 8

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash And Rally Review


As the majority fuss over the DOW and the SP500, the Nasdaq has not made such a dramatic counter rally today. It is well below it’s June record high, and it should tell us soon if it wants to smash to new record lows. Lower highs give us an idea that a bear market has started, but the lower high pattern can be very deceiving, when a 4th wave is involved. I’ve not put back my Cycle degree wave 3 just yet, as I would like to see this market show us a more convincing bearish move, first. 

As much as an inverted zigzag is showing, many times they turn into diagonal waves, as diagonals are just zigzags connected together.  This all may smooth out over time, but that might be just too much wishful thinking at this time. 

Hits: 6

Nasdaq 100 E-Mini, Another Great Intraday Top

Early this morning, the Nasdaq created yet another spike to new record highs, before it slumped again. Until stocks start to show  a consistent declining pattern, we are never sure that this peak will hold.  I would love to see this market start heading much  lower during the rest of this week, as it is long overdue for at least another correction,  or the end of the big 8 year trend. 

Just like all the other indices, the Nasdaq should eventually peak at a Cycle degree wave 3 top as well.  Finding the exact wave that makes any top is very important as all other wave counts are based on it. Of course, those pesky expanded flats throw a monkey wrench into any wave count. 

Hits: 13

Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Update: Down To The Wire

Once again the Nasdaq is down to the wire before breaking to  a new record high. The sharp drop in May could have been part of an expanded pattern which, if it is true always sends the markets to newer highs. Apple, which is the big elephant in the room will not maintain its price no matter how many freaking iPhone 8 models that the experts figure it can sell. 

On this Thursday we are going to hit the new moon date, followed by a holiday on Monday. The new moon dates can produce dramatic reversals in stocks, plus we are getting closer to the end of the month as well.  If we reach a new record high, then the next correction should go much deeper, than what we have had so far. The entire rally that started back in mid April would also be completely retraced. Eventually the entire Trump rally will also be left in the dust, which the US dollar has already done.  

A new record high will force the Cycle degree wave 3 to be moved to a new home.  All my work on this blog is dedicated to tracking and confirming all the historical 5 wave sequences in Cycle degree.  My goal is to find a permanent home for Cycle degree waves 3-4-5, as without them no SC or GSC degree wave patterns can develop.

My work is at a minimum 2 degrees lower than what the majority of expert wave analyses is working with, and back in 2000 my wave count now is a minimum of 4 degree levels lower. 



Hits: 15

Nasdaq 100 Intraday New Record Highs!


It never fails that the Nasdaq can pull the dirty tricks and end up soaring to new record extremes. T=One thing is certain and that is the Nasdaq crossed to any new record highs via a 3 wave pattern. Not some mythical set of 5 waves, but one set of 5 wave sequences is included. Yes, these wave counts could be in a lower degree as well, but the pattern still looks like an ending diagonal.

Since the Nasdaq created a new high, this would also move any Cycle degree wave 3 to a new location. The 5450 price level is the highest so far, but I think that will get beat by the end of the day, if not sooner. 

Hits: 6

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Bullish Review




The Nasdaq seems to be displaying a well formed impulse which started from the June bottom. I would call this bullish phase, a “C” wave bull market, and it sure seems like it has more to go at this time. The Nasdaq is also very close to hitting new record highs, but a small violent correction could still happen before it pushes higher.

It looks like a small triangle 4th wave formed, which is also a warning that a degree change will be necessary. At least one degree higher which in this case would be the finishing of the “C” wave in Minuete degree.  My potential “D” wave in Minor degree is still alive, but it would still be ahead of us and still end this year. 

This Nasdaq “C” wave bull market is riddled with about 7 gaps below present prices. I’m sure all those gaps will get filled, once we start heading down to a potential “E” wave decline.  From present levels, the Nasdaq would have to drop close to 1000 points to the 4800 price level, when the “E” wave may end. 


Hits: 8

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Bullish Action Review




Mondays are usally slow, but the markets are still heading up. There is a real probability that the markets still have to hit new record highs, but any move to new record highs will be diagonal in nature. The Nasdaq and the SP500 did not confirm the DJIA as the August, 23 peaks pushed to new record highs as well. I think it is pretty hard for the DJIA to start on an impulse heading down when the other two may have had a potential “D” wave top. 

We could also be heading up as a bearish rally in which the markets must drop to newer lows.  We have until Wednesday for the end of the month, followed by the new moon on Thursday 1st of September. Then on Friday we will get the employment report as well, which can raise havoc with the traders and short term investors. 

Overall, this week could end up being very volatile in both directions, so be prepared for a wild ride. We still can be heading to a “D” wave top in Minor degree, so that can produce a nice “E” wave crash, as well.  Any future “E” wave bottom could be after a 900 point drop from todays price level. This could end up being the last best bullish trade setup for 2016, followed by another huge bullish run with a 5th wave in Intermediate degree.  

Until I’m convinced that Cycle degree is still ahead of us any wave count can still happen. After any Cycle degree top is in, then we should end up with a huge bear market which will have 3 stages to it. ABC in Primary degree may look like the oil crash once it is finished. Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom may never even get close to the 2009 bottom so the majority will miss another full blown bull market, if they listen to all bearish fundamentals which will be on the minds of all investors. 

Needless to say the fundamentals will be lagging news, and the markets will do the opposite of what the majority of fundamental analysis will be saying.  Needless to say we have lots of time before we see this happen, but my bet is that it will be closer to 2021 before Cycle degree wave 4 is finished. 

Hits: 8

Nasdaq 100 Intraday Top Review




The Nasdaq did push to a new record high, but just barely past the August 15th high.  We are now  starting another decline which could be the start of the “E” wave decline I have talked about.   There still could be an extension in play, but at this time the pattern seems to contain an ending diagonal.

If this “E” wave is a real possibility, then this Nasdaq chart still has to drop 1000 points or so. I’m sure all the bears will be crying that the markets are in bear market territory and that it will get much, much worse.  As crazy as that sounds once all the bears are out, and massively short the markets, the market will then turn and soar to another new record high.  All protective stops, which are buy orders will get hit on the way back up. 

When that happens, it will be a pretty wild turn around, and not just another bearish rally.  I don’t think we’re in a Cycle degree wave 3 just yet. We may not know until well after Cycle degree wave 3 has arrived.  When it does arrive then be prepared for for a long drawn out flat or zigzag Cycle degree 4th wave, and not the well establish 5 waves down that the majority were chasing since the 2009 bottom.

Ignoring all the bearish sentiment while wave counting will always cause us to miss the impending bull market. This should never happen as it takes time to reverse positions and still accumulate at any major bottom.  In early 2009 did all the wave counters turn extremely bullish? They didn’t, as all their wave counts were bear market rallies.  In the coming months we may get another great opportunity to ride a bullish move. This should correspond with a maximum high HDGE and VIX positions.   

In September we will be about 14 months away from a 30 year 1987 crash anniversary date, so that might correspond with the first “A” wave in Primary degree.   

Hits: 7

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Review: Another “D” wave bull Trap?




Since July of 2015 the Nasdaq created another higher high in early November, before it crashed again. Now in July of 2016 we are breaking  through another major high.  On the flip side, this is starting to look like a potential  “D” wave top as part of an Elliott Wave Triangle.  This long post Brexit bullish phase, needs a serious correction as this cannot be maintained at this speed. 

What if we were to get this “E” wave crash, and some type of bottom starts to form once the Nasdaq gets close to my bottom line.  When all the bears start screaming, “bear market”, “bear market” then we know a bottom will be near and a reversal would not be too far behind.  The VIX would spike, and HDGE would also react, so there would be multiple things that have to turn at the same time. 

If and when the next bottom arrives and stocks are pointing down, but gold is pointing straight up, then this can be a classic setup for a stock mania move. 

Hits: 22

Mini Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Review: Dancing To A Different Song




There is a key difference with the Nasdaq wave counts and that is the secondary peak is the highest one which topped much later than the other two indices did so this puts the Nasdaq on a different wave count. Or is it all that different?

That November 2015 peak crossed as a 3 wave pattern, after which it crashed very deep and then roared back up to pre Brexit highs. My “B” wave is an expanded top, and if this is true, then this market has to take out it’s all time high one more time. If it does it this year, that would make me a happy camper.

After this market hit the February bottom, it exploded again, but never pushed to new highs. I have this as an “A” wave top for now as we are working in a diagonal wave structure.  On the “B” wave top in Minute degree Brexit knocked the wind out of the sails and the markets imploded.  The implosion ended with a spike after which it exploded again.  In the end, I can see that the Brexit thing was just a big scare put into investors. Yes, it was all very bearish news, but it was short intense bearish news. Bearish news is usually a buy signal not a sell signal.

This summer could be very interesting as all we need is a new record high, and we can get close to moving the Cycle degree wave 3 to a 2016 peak.  Wasn’t 2000 a Cycle degree wave 3 peak? That I can easily work as an expanded top,  which always fools the majority, making the 2007 top a possible wave 3 in Primary degree.   

Sorry folks, but the forecasted 5 waves down in Primary degree, looks more and more absurd every day this market pushes higher. I will go on record that we will “never” see 5 waves down in Primary degree for several more decades, but we will see 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. 

Hits: 11