I normally take a break on any US or Canadian holiday, but occasionally I will break that rule. Soon we will be starting in the third year of a single 5th wave in Intermediate degree. At this time the markets show no signs that they want to slow down, but reversals can happen coming as a complete surprise to the majority.
We can’t have our noses stuck in the intraday level as we always have to look at daily and weekly charts on a regular basis. At the monthly chart scale we are dealing with a vertical move, where we can barely see any of the corrections above. On faster moves we can’t see any corrections on the bigger scale. Extensions happen all the time as they are a fact we can’t deny. Just because we have a single tall 5th wave, doesn’t mean we are jumping into higher degree levels.
We are still in the running to a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so until that happens, I will remain extremely bearish.
Tomorrow will be a new moon date, which can produce amazing reversals, when they feel like it. It could still take until the end of the month for this to play out, but I look at mid week times as potential turnings as well. The longer and higher this goes, just means it has much deeper to fall when the next bear market arrives.
Crude oil may crash along with the stock market, so we have to be aware of that potential situation as well.
Today the Gold/SP500 ratio is still around 2:1, which it has been for 3 months. When a ratio is at an extreme and it seems to be stuck there, then I look at it as a warning for a major double top in the Gold/Sp500 ratio. In the end, we want to use less gold to buy a single unit of the SP500, which is close to, (.75:1) Not until we get close to this cheap ratio again will the markets become oversold again.
Here’s what could trigger a 30% stock-market melt-up, says investor Bill Miller – MarketWatch
The markets breaking all these record highs are starting to bore me to no end! 🙄 Enough already! It sounds like the market analysts are stuck on repeat, or they are getting creative in calling for another melt-up. It’s amazing how they can call higher and higher bull market targets when they didn’t even see the bull market coming back in 2009.
The higher calls mean nothing in the big picture as nobody knows what the markets will correct down to once those targets have been hit. Nobody is saying, ” Oh BTW, once SP500 reaches 2800, then expect a correction to 700″! Identifying bull and bear markets “after” they have turned means nothing in the big picture as the herd is always late getting in and late getting out.
Forecasting big price moves means the fundamentals are going to change as well. This is why, “fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.
I’m sure that at the next bear market low, we will see dramatically different fundamental news come out, and I will be very surprised if we are not in a recession as well. I mean a recession, not a depression! When all the analysts are in consensus agreement that a recession has arrived, it will be over. A new bull market will start again and eventually move 500%, not this boring 400% 5th wave move, we are presently in.