Gold Intraday Crash Update: Fast And Furious!

The bottom fell out of the gold price with a near-vertical drop that also left an open gap in its wake.  Sudden drops like this happen as there are “No” daily trading limits in commodities.

The only question is how deep gold can still go as downward spikes like this can be a very bullish sign. Stocks/Oil exploded, but the gold and silver price headed south.

There should still be more upside, as the pattern so far, does not suggest a long gold price decline. Besides that, the $1600 price range is a much better resistance level than $1535 is.

The full moon is just a few days away so that can act as a reversal time period. Gold already recovered about $10 so that is also a good sign.  I see it as a warning that later on when stocks start a real bull market that gold will decline as stocks supply the real competition for gold-related assets.

The 2011 gold peak is a prime example of what can happen.

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Gold Stock GDX ETF Update

GDX has been on a wild bullish ride that many gold investors have been hoping for.  What is important is the 2015-2016 gold-stock bottom as the majority thinks we are in a huge bull market that still has a long way to run.

I think we are in a “C” wave bull market and it could be a complete set of 5 waves in Minor degree. It’s still a bear market rally from an Elliott Wave perspective and the entire time investors will get convinced to jump onto the gold stock bandwagon!

When wave 3 comes then all these “New Riders” will get thrown off when the 4th wave bearish phase becomes obvious.  The 4th wave could also end up being a triangle which dictates the coming end of a this Minor degree run.

The Fibonacci $34, $55 price levels will supply resistance levels with $65 being a possible maximum.

The Gold/GDX ratio sits at 50.1 which should continue to compress as this bullish cycle keeps going.  50.1 is the most expensive ratio this year with 30:1 being the most extreme reading I have recorded.

GDX is in a bullish mood as solar cycle 24 is still crashing and the start of solar cycle 25 can cause all gold and gold stocks to reverse and crash. If this invisible 5 wave sequence comes true, then I think the impending bear market would be another 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.

I have a few penny stocks with exposure to gold and they have acted very bullishly, which also helps to confirm the bigger bullish trend!

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Gold 2015-2019 Review

Originally the 2015 bottom was wave 3 in Intermediate degree but that started to take far to long, so I looked for a higher degree position.

I have been using the (A) wave bottom for 3-4 months and at this time don’t see any reason to change it.

At this time the present bullish phase is what I call a “C” wave bull market, which still has a long way to go. Diagonal wave structures can develop at any time, and I still need to see some sort of Minor degree wave 3-4-5 structure to play out.

EWI (Elliott Wave International) has the same bottom for December 2015 as I do so they are bullish as well.

Yes, we should get corrections as nothing travels in a straight line for very long. The last thing I want to do is turn bearish on gold too early!

Gold was well above $1500 at one point and I’m sure $1600 is within reach this year.  August 15, 2019, will be the next full moon which can trigger surprise reversals.

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Phase Update

Gold investors are jumping on the gold bandwagon as they think it will protect them from the savage stock market gyrations.  Short term it will work but long term investors know that gold can reverse with little warning.  I think there is more upside as a 5 wave sequence in Minor degree seems to have started.

Many may think that the gold bottom of late 2015 ($1050)  is a major bottom but in Primary degree.  We are not in a Cycle degree bullish phase so eventually, I will turn very bearish.

I have seen some EWI gold wave counts a few months back and we have the same “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.

This is very rare but they have a huge following reading their newsletters and when EWI turns bearish all of their subscribers will know it.

I’m still very bullish on gold and it may last all year or until stocks have crashed significantly.  For now, this gold bullish phase should continue, so enjoy it as all trends eventually come to an end.

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Gold Intraday Gyrations Review.

This is the August Gold contract as the cash chart has too many erroneous spikes at this time.  Prices will be a bit different as this gold market is still advancing. I don’t want to see new record lows in gold but a deep plunge can also happen before gold starts to crank up again.

Commercials are close to having record net short positions but it’s the speculators that can panic sell at the drop of a dime. This Fridays COT report may tell us more.  There is a good chance that the “C” wave bull market is alive but we need more evidence to support it with the development of wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree.  Once gold soars to about $1500 + then I’m sure the gold bulls will be jumping up and down with joy.  When they all agree that gold is bullish then gold can crash and wipe the smiles off anyone that buys when prices go vertical.

In the long run, I’m working gold as a big bear market rally so very choppy waves in a bull market are very normal.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Update

Once I saw gold maintain a corrective type of a move I knew that any bearish scenario would have to be put into the deep freeze for now.

There are three spikes that show but you can ignore them as they don’t show up in Line type settings.

Many contrarians have been calling for a higher gold price and I’m sure the gold wave counters have cranked up their bullish wave counts as well.

The above wave count is about as bullish as I can show you, as this may be part of another zigzag bull run.  This wave count can also be a wave 3-4,  but I like to work with only one option at a time.

Yes, the commercials are net short and it will get worse if the gold price keeps rising.

Regardless what your long term gold price forecast is the entire wave counting community has to decide if this 3.5-year bullish phase is just a big bear market rally?

In the near term and if gold has the legs, then $1600 could be the next price target.

What nobody talks about is that the price of gold is soaring while solar cycle 24 is still crashing!  This is not a good long term picture as the gold price could be repealed down, by the start of solar cycle 25.

It’s still a year or so before solar cycle 25 starts, even though the first official sunspot of solar cycle 25 has already arrived.

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Gold Resistance at $1800?

I changed my wave positions and basically, I’m now looking for a 3-3-5 wave count and if the (A) bottom is real,  then another leg up would certainly happen.

I will only run one wave count in a chart with no other alternates as otherwise, it’s impossible to find our mistakes. Majority of my wave counts are drawn on a printout first, so you don’t want to carry the same mistake to a new chart!

We may still get some corrective action but if this bullish phase is not finished then the gold bulls will shred the early gold bears again.

The big question is if this is just part of a bear rally or the start of a new true bull market!? A “C” wave bullish phase is what we could be looking at and it may last out the summer.

Wide open spaces to $1600 but then $1800 is going to give gold some very stiff resistance.

 

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Gold 2011-2019 Review

Mindless wave counting is not what I like to do, so seeing the gold COT report for the first time can be unsettling. Above, the commercials are in a net short position that we haven’t seen since mid-2018. These are bearish signals that very few people read or even consider to be important.

The large speculators have taken the opposite side which is aligned with the majority bullish consensus. Folks, both groups can’t be right at the same time and history has been on the side of the commercial hedgers.

The media always talk about the large speculators who they think are the smart hedge funds. Speculators are the emotional trend chasers and they consistently paint themselves into a corner, where they become trapped.

When the market moves against the speculators you can bet they will run or dump their long positions as fast as they can.

I have another gold COT chart that came from the May 2016 gold peak when commercials were also in a massive short position. Gold also crashed at that time, after which it started a sideways bearish phase.

I still have too many alternates, and I will not post or show alternate wave counts on one chart.  All my wave counts are saved on my hard drive for every month and not having many alternates on one chart saves me time in finding any mistakes.

The majority of wave analysts count out hundreds of micro mini wave counts and I always wondered how do they find their mistakes?

The above gold chart could give us a correction down to the bottom trend line after which gold would crank up again as another zigzag.

We also see this weekly chart where gold is far above both moving average lines and many times gold crashed below both averages before a new bullish phase started back up. It would take little for gold to decline and before we know it, gold has created a death cross on the weekly charts.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

Last night gold pushed to $1411 after which it started to back off.  Short term, golds rally may add another leg up but I think that a correction is due

The entire gold bullish phase that started back in late 2015, from the $1050 price level, will soon be 3 1/2 years old.

3 1/2 years for an Intermediate degree move is stretching it so moving everything up by one degree is an option. In other words, we could be in a Primary degree “B” move that is just another big bear market rally.

At a minimum, another correction is due which could send gold back down to the $1260 price level. The $1260 price range would only be a small correction but if a much bigger corrective move is coming then the $1260 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding.

Any gold run below $1160 would confirm that the 5 waves just completing was just part of another fancy bear market rally.

I personally would not be caught dead being long in gold when a vertical move is completing, but the rest of the world is super bullish in gold.

To show how bullish they are I took a screen clip of all the gold contracts going out to December 2024 where gold was already pushing $1511. Any bear attack will certainly change all the above contracts, and with a $100 spread the wave patterns that far out, are radically different.

Sure gold has had a nice run but big bear market rallies can fool us all the time. Gold bulls are smiling as they see this breakout as the beginning, not the end!  Since 2011 gold has had many false bullish moves so what’s the difference this time?

It’s all about the fundamental news but yet nobody can remember these fundamentals a few months later. At least with wave positions, we have a much bigger and longer time horizon.  All the wave counting in the world matters little if we have no clue what degree level that the 2011 peak is.

My gold wave counts need more time until the public lays all its fears on the front pages.

I had a bet going that gold would not see $1400 or higher and yet it did just that, last night. 10 ounces of silver was on the line so I must deliver the 10-ounce silver coin today!

 

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

For the last 3 1/2 years, gold has been in a sideways pattern and is now approaching the upper part of this range, $1360-$1375.  At $1400 gold’s breakout would be pretty obvious and I’m sure the gold bulls will be cheering.

This weekly chart 2019 death cross,  has been avoided for now but I’m sure that the death cross will happen.

At $1050 or lower gold would confirm that for the last 3-4 years, the gold price has just been in a big bear market rally.

Trying to hunt for an Intermediate degree wave 3-4 is now over 3 years old and compared to other Intermediate degree corrections since 2011, this is getting a bit too long.

Jumping up by one degree definitely cures the time problem but we still have a location problem. Gold is acting this bullish but silver is still far behind. If the surge in the gold price is fear based, then the gold bulls could get worn out and run and hide.

Many may think that the $1050 price level is some miracle support price but nobody knows what that 2016 bottom really is. When the 2011 peak hit I think it was a Cycle degree top and frankly there is little chance that a Cycle degree 4th wave has already completed at this point in time.

At a minimum gold would have to dip into the 1980 price peak of $850 before any major new bull market will occur. All commodities run under diagonal idealized patterns, which means there are always many zigzags that connect together. With gold, the 5 waves ending in 2011 was a Primary degree “C” wave run.

With the impending bottom of solar cycle 24, anything can still happen to the gold price.

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Gold Daily Chart: Time For A Correction?

Gold started out June with a price jump that can get the gold bulls all excited. Ok, I’ll bite as the last 3 months sure can work as a diagonal 4th wave flat.

The H&S could also be very bullish but before this happens, gold may have to crash back down to $1260-$1250, and then crank back up again.

On the other hand, gold can fall like a rock but then we know that the gold bulls are not as committed as the media makes them out to be.

Gold moves that are made with “Fear” hardly ever last that long so we still could see some wild action in both directions.

The one thing that some people might not expect is that a diagonal 4th wave can dip down into wave 2 which would be closer to $1200 gold.

 

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Gold Intraday Wild Ride To The Stars!

Since the last part of April and all of May gold showed 3 higher lows before soaring to $1318. I think a correction is due but this could also be another false start to nowhere after which gold can crash very deep.

This has happened so many times that I care to count, but I also know these wild and choppy moves are part of what makes commodities rather exciting at times.

Of course, if you missed this run then welcome to the club. All the spikes you see you can ignore them, except our present spike, which is the real deal! This blast is part of a “C” wave which if I’m right, will get completely retraced.

These wild moves also change the Gold/Oil ratio but the ratio has remained close to 24:1.

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Gold Daily Chart: Fear Moves Don’t Last!

So far gold is doing what I wanted to see happen, but it’s so choppy that it can be part of a diagonal decline and never breakout or see $1350.  Gold looks like it’s in a correction but I also have to keep my diagonal options open.

A little crash in the USD sure helps to fire up the emotional investors as they charge into gold. When you hear investors running to gold as a safe haven hiding spot, then this is an emotional decision and not a logic longer-term investment.

At this daily chart scale, gold has not bounced off the 200-day MA, which will be important to watch.

I have made some changes to the wave count and we will see if a new bearish low happens.

It also depends on how bullish or how bearish the commercial hedger’s COT reports are tonight.

I’m sure President Trump’s duties slapped on Mexico was a surprise, but really folks what do you expect in a trade war. In 1930 the trade war had the same effect when they signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Small tariff wars have never really stopped as many presidents also loved to enforce duties.

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Gold Daily Chart: Impending Breakout?

For the last 3 months gold has been declining but the waves have been overlapping to a point where we can be in a triangle with the “E” wave still to complete.

Last week the commercials in gold and silver made some bullish moves as they added longs and took away short positions.  Gold doesn’t have to fall to $ 1260 as it could just blast up from today’s prices as well.

If a bullish move is still pending then that right shoulder trend line should not hold.  Any price move above $1350 would be a good sign If we are in a corrective pattern and we get a 5th wave. It could be as long as wave three by the time this rally is finished.

We still have a full week of trading for May but then June could produce another reversal.

 

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Gold Intraday Review: Correction or Return of the Golden Bear?

Gold has made some wild moves since its peak on February, 20 at the $1346 price level. I also dropped the degree level down by one degree which might not last too long as I do have the potential for a triangle to play out as well.

Commercials are still net short by a large amount and last week they added to their bearish outlook when they removed longs and added short positions at the same time.

What I’m looking for is a zigzag type of a move which should take us to new bearish lows. If that happens then my mythical triangle may also become more visible, which suggests a new record high can happen.

You can ignore that huge spike to the upside, as it only shows up in a bar style setting but it doesn’t show up when I switch to line type settings.  False spikes do happen and since the April peak, several other false spikes were also created, which I didn’t count.

The worst that happens with a spike is that your account provider scopes in a huge amount of stop-loss orders from the bears.

It used to happen to me when I was trading the mini gold contract as the liquidity was extremely low and spikes were pretty normal.

I know that the gold bulls are looking for investors to charge into gold as a safe-haven but those are emotional decisions which never last that long.

Gold has been in a bearish mood since the 2011 peak and unless you know how bullish they were at that peak we can make the wrong decisions thinking a standard  5 wave bull market has happened.

That 2011 peak was a 30-year ± 1 year mania peak as wave 3 in Cycle degree. Not only that but gold also finished a huge Primary degree zigzag at the same time.

All commodities run under an idealized diagonal world that has been active since the Little Ice Age. That all changed during the Roaring 20s as stocks and commodities separated and went their separate paths.

 

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Gold Intraday Gyrations Update

The US dollar plunged this morning and gold reacted with its own small spike to the upside.  Is gold in a small 5 wave sequence? If it is, then gold could cut right through the top trend line next week.

This is a diagonal wave count  I’m working at this time and it can spike back to $1310 before I have to call my bearish outlook in gold as dead. Maybe not really dead, but just postponed for now.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Move Update

In the last few weeks and the turmoil in world events, the US dollar is very close to making new record bullish highs. This 97.100 price range is also producing potential resistance.  Will the USD keep on soaring or will it implode due to all the stories about how Russia, China, and Iran are buying gold to destroy the US dollar!  They can’t be buying gold, or they have stopped buying gold because gold has been crashing as the US dollar is soaring.

I won’t repeat any of the fundamentals as thousands of analysts have got that covered. I look at the COT reports and a month or so ago, the commercial hedgers removed a “Large” amount of long positions, with last weeks positions creating a net short ratio of 48.36:1.  In other words, commercial hedgers are bearish by a wide margin, but yet the USD is still going for record highs.

Looking for a bullish wave count under those conditions is like playing “Elliott Wave Count Chicken”, so how long this bullish push will keep going is a good guess at best.

The vertical spike last night would be enough for me to turn very bearish on the USD, but I can still see bullish wave counts developing.

Gold is reacting to the US dollar rally as expected, but its decline will also stop dead and reverse once the USD starts on a much bigger correction.

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Gold Intraday Gyrations Update.

You can blame gold’s gyrations on Turkey, if you like.  It sure seemed like the US dollar and the Euro benefited from the lira turmoil.

We did have a bullish phase in March, with only a few days left to go. Watch out for fake April Fool’s news, as the pranksters just love putting out fake news.

Today the media is easily manipulated, more than it ever has in history, and it’s only going to get worse.

The March rally started as a good impulse, but then it fell apart after the “A” wave peak in Subminuette degree. Gold is sitting on the bottom trend line and if the Golden Bears are in control, then this bullish support line will never hold.

If gold slices through the psychological $1300 price level with ease, then that would also help make my bearish case.  $1294 might give us 50%-60% retracement support, then again a very bearish gold price will not care about any support.

Where is the death cross?  I looked at the daily chart and then switched to the weekly chart and at about the $1240 price level gold would have to find support at the 200-day MA line. Even the golden crossings happened at about the same price level, so it will be very interesting when it gets closer. The 200-day MA is only $50-$60 below us and a crash this small is a walk in the park for gold.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Update

I’ve made some adjustments to the wave count at this time.  The big question is, “Is this rally a Bear Rally”?  I like to think it is but only time can answer that question.  A Gold crash below $1160 would give us an answer.

First gold has to show us what the $1200 price level will do, as even numbers seemed to be a crowd psychology thing.  Crossing the $1200 price level could get the gold bulls very worried and a new rush of protective sell stops could get triggered.

At the $1350 price level another right shoulder will form and if there still is a big bullish gold price move, then the right shoulder will not hold.  In the last few years, we’ve had a few H&S patterns and they all have pushed gold prices back down.  Last week commercials made some bullish moves but they are still net short by a wide margin.

In little over 5 months, gold moved up $175, but they are forgetting that gold has an ugly history of crashing $100-$200 as well.

If investors are running to gold for a safe-haven to hide in, then that’s an emotional move, not a logical move.

Gold has also come to a screeching halt as it bounces around the 50-day MA line. Gold is still under the influence of a golden cross and gold would have to crash through the $1240 price level for us to witness a new death cross.

On a weekly chart, the new death cross is only about $20 apart!

 

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Gold: Weekly Chart Impending Death Cross Review

I look at two sets of COT reports and this chart shows that the commercial hedgers have a very bearish outlook. Of course, the speculators are doing the exact opposite as they are chasing the gold bull market that many believe we are in.   When I see such a bearish position as the COT report above I’m not going to spend my time looking for a bull market, that may never come.

Between the silver chart and this gold weekly chart, we can see a huge difference.  Since the 2016 July, peak gold has a very bullish slant so wave analysts will show a bullish wave count, most of the time.  Silver and the majority of gold stock related ETFs do not confirm gold’s pattern as most of them are pointing down, not up like gold.

At present we have 3 major gold prices that if cross will make or break another bull gold market myth.  $1160, $1120 and $1050 will all be critical price levels, besides $1200 being a psychological number as well.  For now, gold is still under the control of a Golden Cross but will be set to change if gold keeps crashing.

With a monthly chart, the 200-day MA is down at the $1000 price level, while on a daily chart the 200-day MA is at $1240.

No wave count is written in stone but when the bullish leg that started in August 2018 retraces about $96 we could be ready for a reversal. We could get a 60-70% retracement as well but we better see a stunning correction like pattern when it completes.

Any price below that $1160 bottom will confirm that at least one leg of it was just a bear market rally.  Bullish and bearish moves can last for an entire month with March being a very popular turning month. It’s a seasonal thing as well, as people become more active in March when we start to get out of the deep freeze we’ve had this year.

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

Bull market or bear rally is the million dollar question?  What the majority do call a bull market, can be just a big bear market rally from an EWP point of view.  Since the 2011 peak we’ve had more bear rallies than we can count, well we can count them if we have nothing better to do. Many were Minor degree moves with one Intermediate degree bull move that all have failed.

I was fooled as well but slowly succumbed to the bears as counter rallies were always completely retraced.  Sure, at times the price is important but the pattern is far more important. If we look back to the 2015 low ($1050), gold has been in a bullish phase since then and is now a little over 3 years long in duration.  Since the 2015 bottom, we’ve had two higher lows which is a conventional way of calling a bull market.

Each of the three bullish phases topped out and was followed by a crash and recovery. We ended up with three peaks that have to produce some serious resistance, with the third peak reaching $1346 before gold started to correct again.  We would need this gold run to continue past the $1400 price, and once that happens you will hear the world screaming, “Upside Breakout”.

Since the 2016 top, we now have two sets of Head&Shoulder patterns already formed. Are they bullish H&S patterns or bearish patterns? We also have a wedge that has formed, so any new direction is not all that clear at this time. Gold has 3 major support prices that would have to hold if a true bullish phase is still in progress, but if gold has been in a 3-year bear rally, then all three price supports will get completely retraced. The three support prices would be $1160, $1120 and the last one would be $1050?

Gold has also been in a rally right along with stocks, so gold could also crash right along with the stock markets. When fear strikes logic thinking is thrown out the window and all those little emotional “Algorithms” will panic, selling out before bullish investors lose money.  Sell stops are piled up below present prices, and you don’t need a smart “Algorithm” to trigger them.

AI trading is also becoming a major factor and I see it more of a bad thing than a good thing.

I would be far more bullish if the commercial traders were in a net long position, but the sad fact is that they are not!

 

 

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Gold Intraday Bearish Update

In February gold has slipped back into a bearish mood now approaching the $1300 price level. $1300 is what I call a psychological price as the media picks up its commentary when this price level is getting close.  The other psychological price level is $1200. The gold analysts will go nuts if gold ever approaches $1200 again.  The question remains? Is gold in a bigger bullish phase, or was the move from $1160 just a big bear market rally?   Since the 2011 peak gold has made many bear market rallies where the majority were fooled into believing the return of the bull market.

I’m keeping my degree levels small at this time as small degree levels get trashed pretty quick, as it’s all about the process of elimination.

I would turn very bullish on gold if gold produced a big impressive spike to the downside, but gold must also display a huge zigzag or even a flat type of a crash.  It’s the end of “C” waves that do produce the huge spikes.

It looks like a nice run of 5 is starting so now its just a matter of time if another run of 5 completes. Sounds like playing cards when I talk about a run of 5, and it is. I used to play Big Bertha a lot where we always need to build runs. Even corrective waves come in runs of 5, like W, X, Y, X, Z.

Any drop in the gold price,  say from $1300 to $1200 is just, “Childs-play”, as gold can move very violently when it wants to. I also read that January gold runs don’t last all that long and even summers can be pretty boring for gold. When gold makes a run out of fear, “Safe-haven buyers rushing in”, then they can “Rush out” just as fast.

We are close to a 7-year bear market in gold so far, and I think it’s far from over. I’ve counted out 13-year bearish moves in silver several times, but that doesn’t mean it will happen this time.

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Gold Intraday Peak Update!

Last month gold has finally decided to back off in its price surge to $1325. If this so-called bull market in gold is real then a strong correction has to complete well before the $1160 price bottom. That’s a lot of price distance gold has to cover, which the majority of participants don’t expect. Banks are up to their usual tricks and have been buying gold in 2018.  The problem with banks buying and selling gold is they always buy high and then sell low at bear market bottoms. Back in 1998-2000, they were selling gold as fast as they could with countries unloading their gold stashes as well. In 1999 gold was considered an ancient relic, close to junk status.

As fast and far that gold can soar, it can crash even faster and deeper. We could see a correction, but don’t get excited as even a zigzag decline can crash to new lows if this bullish phase is just a big bear rally. Fear could engulf many asset classes where there is no place to hide as stock markets and gold crash at the same time.  Sure, I can be wrong and it will be important to recognize a correction when it’s going to finish.

I believe the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania peak in Cycle degree wave 3. Any Cycle degree bear market in gold does not end in just 8 or 10 years, as the bear market in gold during the 1990’s last 20 years.

Since the government shutdown, the first COT report was published last Friday. The way things are going the government could shut down again, with no COT reports being produced.

When I first saw the report I noticed a very large shift to the bearish side, with about 5-6 weeks backlogged data being published.

 

Commercials added 33,486 short positions and took away 2058 long positions, for a combined total of 35,544 contracts totaling just over 3.5 million Troy ounces.  Now, look over to the NON-Commercial side (Speculators).  We can see they did the exact opposite, chasing this gold bullish phase.  The problem is that both parties can’t be right!  The mass media always talk about what the speculators are doing and ignore all commercial hedgers action. From my perspective, the commercial hedgers have the best track record and ignoring them usually brings pain and suffering onto the bulls that think a trend can never end. What the COT report is telling me is that no super gold bull will start to soar anytime soon.

There is no corrective price bottom I want to use right now, as a 60%-70% net crash can happen. The $1200 price level is a gold psychological price level so if and when the gold price ever hits that area again it could put up a big fight!

Silver has a lot less distance to fall before it resumes the big bear market again.  Silver only has to fall below $14 and then below $13.50 and it would be back into its bear market.

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Gold 1950-2011 Review

I’m showing a big picture in gold that very few wave analysts will show us. Wave analysts have gold in a bull market with the contrarians making damn sure in telling me that I’m wrong that gold still has to form new record lows in the next 2-3 years.  The $1400-$1050 price range in gold is the argument and recently gold was heading to $1325, so the $1400 gold price move is not yet dead!

The main difference of opinion is what we think the 2011 peak in gold actually was?  If we think that the 2011 peak was just a normal peak in a normal bull market then yes,  many expect a new bull market in gold. From my Cycle degree perspective, this gold peak of 2011 is part of a 30-year cycle which had peaked in 1950, 1980 and now in 2011. We are out by one year but the next major mania gold and silver peak will not happen until 2041. 2041 would be the Cycle degree wave 5 peak, and since no 5th wave should ever be uncapped, 2041 will also be an SC degree wave 3 peak.

There is little doubt in my mind that this gold market has not completed any 4th wave in Cycle degree. At a bare minimum, gold would have to retrace deep enough to enter the price level of the 1980 peak of $850. The 2011  peak also matches the first peak of solar cycle #24. 1980 was also a solar cycle peak but I’m not sure of the exact cycle peak it was.  All commodities follow diagonal patterns and from the 1950 peak to the 2011 peak gold was just a huge zigzag.

Gold travels up and down with demographics as I started work at the bottom of wave 2 in cycle degree and the bull market in gold we do see was created by the boomers entering the labor force. In 1968 I was working for $2.98 CAD per hour, but we got a 20% pay raise every year for 4 years running!  I was able to save money and still blow much of it on having a good time.

If gold ever plunges below $500 in the next 2-3 years then gold will be a long term hold until 2041!  At this scale, the 200-day MA is still down at the $1000 price level and betting against gold hitting this 200-day MA may be a long term losing proposition.

What will happen first? Will gold close above $1400, before it closes below $1050? One price represents a bullish breakout while the $1050 price level would the bearish breakout!   Just to really make things interesting gold could shoot above $1401 and then turn around and head down to $1049!

 

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Gold Intraday High Update

This morning gold spike to a high of $1315 before gold started to back off.  Analysts are bullish but most of them give emotional reasons why gold has been going up.  “Trade Concerns”  is just another mild way of calling gold’s bullish run as a safe-haven run.  There is a good chance that gold can dip to the $1300 price level, and then give us another leg up.  Sure, silver has also gone up but gold has left silver in the dust!

Even the gold-related ETFs and indices are lagging far behind the gold price. At this 90 minute scale, we get more “Crossings” as it didn’t take to long to travel from a Death Cross, right back to a Golden Cross. On the daily chart, we are still under the effect of the Golden Cross.

Ultimately it’s the USD dollar’s bearish action that is pushing gold higher.  My Market Vane report has expired and my COT reports may get published this Friday. Last time the commercials had very bearish positions, so it will be interesting to see how they shifted their positions. This Friday economic reports usually come out as well and if investors interpret them wrong, it could start a mini sell-off.

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Gold Daily Chart: Bullish Review

Since the August 2018 bottom of $1160, gold started to make its present-day run. This came close to $1300 with a total run length of about $140. In the last day or so gold has started to retreat a bit. This run was choppy as waves overlapped and destroyed any true impulse we may have had. The gold bulls are confident that gold will still travel much further, but they need for gold to break out above the $1400 price level just to confirm that gold is still in a bull market.  The only way I can see that gold will continue is if the $1160 bottom was a “B” wave in Intermediate degree.   The COT reports are old as the government shut down has not produced any reports since December 20, 2018.

This diagonal set of 5 waves has to produce a “Correction”, in order for gold to produce two more legs up. How deep this correction can go, can always fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Of course where this previous 4th wave of one lesser degree actually is, is just an opinion at best. Folks, gold can crash in a 60%-70% net move that could send gold back down to the $1200 price level. $1200 is a psychological number and if gold dropped down below $1200 the gold bugs would start to get pretty agitated.

We are still in the Death Cross zone with this daily chart, and gold would have to keep soaring in order for the Golden Cross to become real.  On A weekly chart, gold is now well above both MA lines with the 200-day MA support being at $1234. Sure gold stocks have moved up as well but, they sure are acting like they don’t care about the gold price surge.  We have one gap open below present prices, which should get closed once gold retraces below $1270.

This entire move could still be a bear market rally and a complete retracement of the $1160 price level would have to happen.  What the majority don’t understand is that the 2011 peak in the gold price was a gold and silver price mania/bubble that only comes along once every 30 years or so.  Gold peaks of 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2011 follow Cycle and Primary degree moves, with the next big top being closer to 2041 when Cycle degree wave 5 is also due.

Those that did not pay attention or record all the mania readings during 2010-2011, will think we are in a normal gold correction and a new leg up is in the “Bag”, so to speak.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is very good at recording these moods and I will insert their gold chart below.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Year End Update!

I still have a “B” wave peak in Minor degree as the decline could fit into a diagonal 5 wave sequence.  It is priceless to see gold scream higher and end in a near vertical spike to the upside at the end of the month and the end of a year.  Even though gold gave us an impressive run so far, I believe a correction is due.  Of course, this correction may never happen if the entire move in gold was just a bear market rally!   Gold sliced through the 200-day MA on this daily chart, but on the weekly chart gold just hit the 200-day MA. That hints of resistance which matches many of the peaks in 2017.

I labeled the Aug/Dec run as a triangle which can happen in 4th waves, but the exact same wave count can double as a diagonal set of 5 waves with a degree adjustment. A potential diagonal wave one will still force a substantial correction for gold, where gold can crash back down to the $1200 price level before it cranks up again.  This move has the look of a “fear” run as it started at the same time stocks started to move to the downside.   Gold would have to travel much further before a Golden Cross is created. The 50-day may not reach the 200-day MA before gold turns down again.

The December 20th COT reports showed that the commercials were making a very bearish move by adding to their already net short positions. At the same time, the commercial hedgers removed long positions which just adds to their bearish outlook. We’re not at any extreme but it sure does not support any huge bullish phase still to come. Gaps to the upside have opened up, so they will get filled before gold can keep heading north.

Meanwhile, the speculators are taking the exact opposite side of the trade as they are chasing this bull market. FOMO is a very powerful motivator, but emotional moves seemed to have a limited lifespan.

Silver has also soared with the COT reports showing the same moves as with gold.  2019 is a new year and we could get a new direction in gold as well.  Gold peaked in 2011 which matches the first peak in solar cycle #24, this peak was not some little peak in an ongoing bull market, but it was a once in 30-year mania peak.  In this case, it was 30 +1 years from the 1980 peak. 1950 was the previous peak all matching Cycle degree peaks. Do not underestimate the power of the solar cycles on gold as solar cycle turnings seemed to attract but can also alternate by repelling.

2011 was a wave 3 peak in Cycle degree so until I see a complete zigzag or flat coming to an end, I will look for the bearish moves.

Commodities run on a different idealized diagonal pattern than what stocks do, and it was the Roaring 20’s when impulse waves started to take over and the choppiness of commodities disappeared.

Have a Safe and Happy New Year!

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Gold Daily Chart Rally Update And The Death Cross!

 

The gold Death Cross on this daily chart happened around the $1305 price level. Fundamental analysts don’t have a clue about what a Death Cross is or the long-term damage that they forecast. Gold was well below the 50-day MA but now has found a bit of support with the 50-day MA.  The 200-day MA is still far away before the 50-day slices into the 200-day MA.  The 5 waves I show are all diagonal wave structures so the 5th wave is also a small zigzag. I’m going to stay with the same degree level even though I only had about 3-degree levels to work with. I stay with 15-degree levels as when I run out at Miniscule degree, then I know that all degree levels may need a second look.

Switch this gold chart to a weekly chart and we can see gold sitting at the 50-day MA.

Since the August bottom of $1160, gold looks like a triangle, but we should not get a triangle in a wave 1-2 positions. Any break above $1240 will work to finish off the last zigzag wave.

Gold is fooling us as silver has gone the opposite way and was on the cusp of creating a new bear market low. Last weeks COT report still have the commercials net short in gold and silver which does not get me excited about some super bullish move still to come. Three or four gold stock ETFs have already created new record lows, so it’s not just one thing that I look at.

Commercial hedgers are short in palladium, platinum, copper, and aluminum, which is also very bearish in the longer term.

 

 

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Gold Weekly Chart 200-Day Support Or Resistance?

 

Gold is stuck in midterm elections, but it should not take long for gold to start moving again! The big question will be, “In which direction gold will resume”?  Right now gold has been having great difficulty trying to rise above the 200-day MA.  If the bull market scenario is, “True”, then gold has to soar. It may take a bit more time as investors need 3-4 hours to consume the results. That may happen long before the final midterm results are fully known. If election results do not move the price of gold, then I don’t know what will?

We could see a very violent move where gold shoots up, but then reverses just as fast. We have 3 gold support prices with the above weekly chart, and if each price support gets broken, it’s one more nail, or should I say 3 more nails hammered into golds coffin! Of course, gold heading down is considered a crazy idea. For the last few years gold has gone nowhere fast and when it tries to break out, gold just turns around and implodes. We won’t have that long to wait as I expect the gold price to start moving again.

Trends built on fear never last long as gold traders are extremely emotional and can run from gold even faster. Many presidents tend to lose ground in midterm elections and President Trump will be no different. All the stunts President Trump has created in the last few months, is related to the midterm elections. Opec was glad to help as they just pumped more oil to bring the price of oil down before the elections. President Trump is not the only president that has done this as others have tried as well.

 

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Gold Daily Chart Rally Update

 

This morning gold is producing a small double top with a few small spikes before gold started to make another correction. If this is the big one already then there is no way that gold should crash very deep before it lifts off for another leg up. That’s the song and dance we get from all the bullish gold investors. Is this the start of a 1-2, 1-2 count? In a wave 3 extension, there are only about 3 sets of 1-2 waves that will happen, so we need one more, smaller 1-2 wave set in order for this trend to keep going.

Any move down that retraces below that $1180 price level will kill any idea of this gold rally to be into a bullish phase.  This gold rally has a good chance of being a fake start, and if the markets are good enough to confirm this, then we still have wave 3-4-5 to complete.

Platinum made the exact same move as gold, but platinum crashed to new record lows already, with about the exact same wave count as in gold. The difference since the 2016 bottom is that platinum was far lower and more sideways in the last year and 10 months.

Silver is also reacting but in a subdued fashion as well. Silver only has to fall below $13 and it will have resumed its bearish phase. It’s more important to watch silver as it walks to a different drummer than what gold is walking to.

The markets have been tumbling this week, and when stocks rally again, gold investors will run back into stocks as fast as their little fingers allow them to click, as fear moves never last that long.

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