Tag Archives: Gold

Gold Intraday Update: Is The Correction Finished?

 

Gold sure looks like it turned this morning, which could be the end of the correction. All we need is for gold to trash some of the resistance we are going to run into, then the gold bulls will take over control of the market again. The pattern I’m expecting is a sequence of 5 waves up in Minor degree. This eventualy should push the gold price to $1700-$1900, but all indicators I use will have to confirm it first.

I use GDX as my main trading ETF, and it should also have hit a bottom this morning.

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Gold Intraday Bull Market Update.

 

This is the 90-minute intraday chart, with the bearish phase ending in August 2018.  Since then gold is doing what a bullish market is supposed to be doing as 5 waves seemed to be forming.  I may have to adjust the degree level later on,  but for now, I will start with 5 waves up in Minute degree, with a starting 1-2, 1-2 wave count. Gold could turn into diagonal waves, just as easily, which only time can confirm in the next few weeks.

Last week of a quarter, after which gold could soar much further. Technically speaking, gold should form 5 waves up in Minor degree, that will eventually push gold way over $1375 again. $1375 is the key price that gold has to retrace because that is the location of an Intermediate degree top.

I’m looking for a Primary “B” wave top, so the Intermediate degree position eventually has to get retraced. The only way gold will keep going up is if the US dollar keeps up its decline. Investors love that $1200 price level, and sooner or later, gold will get above that number and not get hit again for some time.

At this time I have a gold price window bull market peak, between $1700-$1900. Compare that to GDX, and GDX could hit between $45-$65.

The US dollar already took 14 months for its A5 wave decline with a 6-month counter-rally. If zigzags are supposed to be even, then another 14-month decline would be an initial time target of November 2019, as a potential peak.

At this time gold may work as a safe-haven asset class, but long-term every myth that you know about gold will be proven false. Gold will never protect you from deflation, and the only way gold will protect you against inflation is when the price of gold gets crushed. Banks are buying gold this year, but back in 1998, they were selling gold.

The big thing that readers of this blog must be confident about, and that is what that 2011 peak in gold represents!

Before you think that gold is just in an ordinary bull market again, then you should do your homework in what a mania is! Gold runs on a 30-year cycle from one mania peak to the next, so the next mania is not going to peak until 2041. This would be Supercycle degree wave 3 in commodaties.

One thing I’m very certain on, that at the peak of this bullish run, gold will give bullion holders a chance to unload or they will suffer the consequences when gold crashes between $500-$350! Deflation is coming in the next three years, and gold will, “Never” protect you from this deflation.

Boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day for the next 19 years! What do you think they will do with their investments?  All those boomers will be permanent sellers of real-estate.

It’s not just gold,  but the entire commodities world will get hit with deflation by 2022-2023

 

This is what the COT report on gold looks like. This does not instill any great confidence that a super gold bull is coming when their stats are so flat and even. Oh, I’m sure this picture will change, until we can see some extreme readings again. When the top speculators move to the bottom then we know that the speculators are in a bull trap, and it would be time to short gold again.

 

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Phase Review

 

Several weeks ago the commercial traders changed into a net long position with gold which was the first time this happened since the late 1990s.  I had to move my Primary degree “A” wave bottom to late 2015 which is back about 2 years and 8 months. This is another example of time traveling on paper as my old wave positions had me late or behind by 2.8 years! One wrong large degree can put us off by 100’s of years, if we do not know what that 2011 gold peak was.

The 2011 gold peak  was a Gold/Silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years + or – 1 year!  Anybody with time to kill and a calculator can check these numbers by going back 90 years or going formward 90 years. 90 years make up 3, 30 year cycles, from 1980 forward. 2041 would be the year of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, which will never happen until the price of gold  gets crushed in the next 2-3 years. $1160 in gold had a strong spike to the downside which may hold and deserves attention to make sure it will hold.

I mentioned it many times that gold could soar to that $1800 price level, but it sure will not soar $1000 like I said it might do. Now it would only soar $640-$650 to get to the same price target.

My triangle in the “B” wave stays exactly the same as I still need the higher degree change before it happens. If the $1160 price level holds it would be a running pattern for sure. I don’t believe in truncated patterns as I see all of these as running patterns. Even if gold started out and developed a 5 wave structure, it could also be a triangle inside the “B” wave.

We had the Death Cross in a daily chart but the Golden cross is still active in gold. In the weekly charts and the 50-day MA may not cross golds  200-day MA and even provide support for the next leg up in gold.  Gold is still in a bear market rally as no Cycle degree correction has completed in gold at this time. It’s pretty sad when we can’t see the 2011 peak as a maina peak as all the numbers read “extreme” back in 2011. Bubbles do not end well and gold has been brainwashing us as it has not yet completed the mania bear market by a long shot.

It may take until 2022 before the real bottom in gold will arrive, after the gold price is “CRUSHED”! Only when an asset class is crushed in price does it become an investment and until then I will only trade the 5 wave moves.  It takes me about 15-20 minutes of work at night and I can be completely in cash by first opening before I get out of bed. At the same time I can execute some long positions in GDX  but in small increments of 100 shares each time. Some 5 cent call options will help the share count if we only have 400-500 share long positions. 25 calls are about equal to adding 2500 shares to a trade.  Option failure depends on how you use them and how you handle the loss once they expire worthless.

It looks like if this $1160 price holds, then gold below $1047 will not happen and then $1400 gold will get breached. Once $1400 gets breached, I lose my 10-ounce silver coin. That’s ok, as I had some PUTs out, that coverd the loss of a 10 ounce silver coin. I also cashed in 20 October puts to cover the risk of all my options going to zero.

So far in the last 12 months I have enjoyed a 92% gain in my printouts, and I would be happy if that happened again on the long side.

Remember, that the gold price has nothing to do with printing money, it has to do with the “velocity” of the money in the economy. This velocity can increase with seasonal spending like for Halloween and Christmas shopping or January RRSP spending. Long term the velocity of money is going to decrease on a massive scale as 10,000 boomers are retiring every single day for the next 19 years!  What will happen to the stock market once the pensioners have to cash in, I don’t think I will be “investing” if my cane can’t beat my mouse anymore!  🙄  All those boomers retiring will strain the private and government pension plans to the extreme, if not fail completely. Longer term deflation is the real threat, even when gold makes another strong showing.

Even my IWA pension plan, or the Ontario Teachers Union pension plan will see some hits that are hard to imaging at this time.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

 

When we notice a pattern as choppy as gold was during 2017 and early 2018, then this is telling us that gold is traveling up when the bigger trend is down. I counted out the triangle in gold with more detail this time as I will not keep filling in the sames positions over and over again. The only way we can have a triangle in a 5th wave decline is in a diagonal set of 5 waves. Triangles also send out a clear warning that once they are completed, I must increase my wave degree by a minimum of 1 degree, and even 2 degree levels at certain times.

The 2017 peak was an Intermediate degree peak, so gold must exceed the 2017 peak by a wide margin, ($1375). We would be on a Primary degree run, specifically a “B” wave in Primary degree.  Three big moves in Primary degree is in our gold future, and it would be best to talk about that when I update GDX!

We did get a strong spike down to the $1160 price level, but that support price will not hold, which makes the $1120 price level the next target to get hit. Once gold gets below $1120 there is only one leg of a bar stool that hasn’t cracked yet. Three cracked legs will not hold the heavy gold bullion owners, and the $1047 gold price level will confirm without a shadow of doubt, that gold was just in a bear market rally.  If an Intermediate degree bear market rally can fool the majority of investors, then a Primary degree “B” wave bullish top will really fool them again.

The anticipaded “B” wave gold bullish phase will also be the last time that we can sell bullion into a mania peak, because it will not be until 2041 when SC degree wave 3 in gold arrives. Yes, 30 years between gold mania peaks which nobody expects, but it will produce some of the best trading we can do for the rest of our lives.

The Gold Death Cross was at $1300 with this daily chart, and the weekly chart Death Cross is still to come.

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Gold Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

I think only watching the gold price is a big smoke and mirror magician act and they are “Bluffing us”.  What we are looking at, is a tringle inside a “B” wave zigzag. This always dictates that I “must” find one higher degree once these 5 diagonal 5 waves are completed. Silver and all gold stock ETFs do not confirm this gold bullish looking pattern. Silver only has to fall another $1.50 and it well be close to a new record bear market low. You can’t have gold in a bull market while silver breaks to new bear market lows. Even some of my gold stock related ETFs are also very close to breaking new record lows, so it’s not just one thing. We had so many bearish warnings that gold was going to implode, but thankfully gold investors ignore all these bearish signs. and technical indicators as well.

The Death Cross on this daily cash chart was at $1300 and the weekly Death Cross is still to come.

Even the gold hedge funds and the commercial traders have net short positions on gold. This is a bit rare but it has happened before.  Eventually the hedge funds will get into a really big bear trap and that’s when this gold market will reverse and soar north again. Printing money has nothing to do with the price of gold but it’s the velocity of any money that does drive the price of gold.

Gold hit a 30 year record high in 2011, which was a “mania peak”, not some silly correction in an ongoing bull market. Commodity crashes don’t end with some flimsy bottom but they end in a far more violent nature.  Bear market rallies “Always” retrace their entire bullish moves back down to and below the point of orgin. It seems the gold bullish wave analysts have turned a bear market rally into a bull market,  as they are all confinced that gold will still break above $1400 this year!  Good luck with that, as it seems that gold investors are following those wild bullish wave counts, which I always bet against. We can tell if we are on the wrong side as our bullish positions refuse to perform the way a bull market should.

Presently we are in a Minor degree “C” wave decline and is just about the smallest 5 wave sequence I will bet on, provided my account can handle it. There are about 3-4 ETF’s that track this gold futures cash chart very well. I’ts when they contain Options is when the patterns go insane. I’m starting to love options but will not know how much until the end of this year when all my PUTs must be closed off.

I have heard it many times how the majority of Options expire worthless, but this all depends in how we use options! If the majority of options expire worthless then it’s not a good idea to use options to chase a market in any direction. One wrong move against you and the options can go to zero and never recover before expiration date.

I will not give out details of my options trading until all PUTs are closed off, and I’m starting to build calls or take long positions in GDX or GDXJ.  I have 2hr lunch meetings with my buddy and he has taken an options course, which he likes as well. He brought a huge stack of his books, so I told him that he was hired as my Options consultant!   🙄 The fact that we can talk the same options language and work together, is more important than his real world experiences.  Everything I do can be cloned and scaled up with no real limits.

Traders don’t have to make millions as all it takes is a good healthy trading account where you can draw extra cash every year or month from. I would be happier than a littly piggy playing in a pig-pen if sometime by this year end, I cashed out with $89,000 or more!

I have a family wedding barbecue to go to this Sunday and if the weather holds, they can be a lot of fun.

Have a Great weekend!

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Quick Gold Intraday Rally Update.

 

Gold followed through with a push above $1200 again. $1210 seems to be the peak this morning. Since I can count this rally like only 5 waves have developed, then chances are good this counter rally is not completed yet. We could see a severe drop in the price of gold, but then gold can come back hard one more time. Overall the big 2018 summer decline is one single move with 5 waves in Minute degree, which is the tail end of a diagonal Minor degree zigzag crash. It’s also the smallest 5 wave run that I will trade in.

I use GDX and GDXJ instead of gold but will add GLDM when the next big bullish phase comes. This may take all of 2019 as well.

 

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Gold Intraday Rally Update

Last week gold and gold stocks made a single spike to the downside. This is what may happen at a major bottom and is a signal to close some bearish positions. I closed off some PUTs as I plan to have a small group of options come due every month. That crazy decline sure seems to fit into a diagonal 5th wave. Just to get all the gold bulls excited again, it would not surprise me if gold closed above $1200 for a couple of days. At $1215 we have a road block when gold refused to go any higher.

The August sideways move is just a mini version of what gold looks like on a daily chart! If gold traveled up to $1215 then we woud  be looking at another Head&Shoulder bull trap! This run could also end with a spike, and it may take the rest of this week to play out. I would rather give this rally a bit more time than try to get perfect timing at this intraday scale.

The reason for golds rally is that the US dollar is also making a correction in its bull market. The next big downside price target to watch is that $1120 price, as then 3 legs of a 4 legged bar stool, have already cracked.

 

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Gold: Looking Back A 1000 Days!

I have what is called a “custom bar” setting, which is just the amount of days I can look back. Normally I always use 500-day settings, but this time I doubled that to 1000-day settings. I use about 5 major indicators which the 50-200-day MA is just one that I use from the conventional world of  technical analysis. I also drew in the rising wedge I used many times and the bottom trendline sliced right through the Death Cross perfectly. There were many warning signs at the top as gold could not work past the $1360 price level. I had a $15 gold window where this zigzag rally would be busted!

I’m short IAU which is a gold metal tracking ETF. GLDM is new and I will track it as well. Once a trend change has taken hold then nothing on this planet will stop it until it comes to its final conclusion. Any bullish move that is acually in a bear market rally must eventually completely retrace itself, back to its point of orgin, and lower. $1200 is another potential support price level that should get breached. This would only leave 2 more to go before investors fear factor start to rise. Remember, there are sell stop orders down below the void! Every ETF has sell stops below as well.

We had the Death Cross at this scale already and others will follow. I hope I never get caught in a bullish trap as I took a big enough hit on losers already. All my short positions are in the green, except for USO and that is only a few percentages down.  I have three sets of PUT options out on GDX, but they turn red as soon as you put them on.

Two different sets have already flashed in and out of green, so I consider that a good sign. When I close all my PUTs, then I will see what I can use for the big trip back up.

Sure,we still have 4-5 months to go, but at the end it could go so fast, that if traders are not ready for it, they will miss it. Missing a major bullish or bearish run is losing money. It’s worse if your also caught on the wrong side of the trade. For the last part of the year, your going to see how many bullish gold investors are going to get hit.  You will read headline after headline how investors are getting fleeced as all markets start to crash.

I just got a fresh copy of the Market Vane report and none of it suggests that gold is going to the moon anytime soon. In fact it all points the opposite way.

Folks, we are at a major price bubble never before seen in history in all asset classes. This cannot continue and the markets will implode in a deflationary bear market that the majority will never see coming.

At this time my bet is that gold and the markets are going to sync up, but it may take the rest of this year to see it happen.

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Gold: Cycle Degree 5.0 Eats Investors For Breakfast!

 

In the last week or so my Cycle degree opinion got raked over the coals because of my believe that we are still completing a bottom. I have in that situation many times and I will cover it more down the page.  We are in once in “every” 30 years type of a gold market that will not repeat itself until 2041, and 2071, and 2101!  I think it is imperative that those that follow any EWP understand that some major wild swings are ahead, not trying to be obnoxious, I already have my zigzag impressed into my mind like a picture.  I personally do not need to show one wave position anywhere and I will still trade it, using all my best experiences, to get into a major bottom successfully.

Gold traders and investors don’t mix at all as it is the gold “investors” and stock market “investors” that are going to get slaughtered. Traders don’t lose money in a market crash, we are riding it down and will enjoy some profits as all those waiting for a gold bullish move are going to lose twice as much. Once because the loss of the gold price, and their net worth , second because they wasted another extremely good opportunity as well.

At this point gold has taken out support #1 and is heading down with a little spike, this is what the bottom may look like so you are getting a sneak preview of later this year.

I will not be buying gold trading assets but will stick to GDX and GDXJ as my gold bullion replacement. Besides the gold ETFs will be the first to let us know that a top is coming.  (gold/Gdx ratio) All those that are holding gold stocks because their advisor got them “into” gold, thinking they are looking for wave 5 in Primary degree to unfold.

Being out by only “ONE” degree wave analysts will be out by a mile. Because investors continuously suffer losses in crashes, I will always be a trader at heart. The reason I became a traders is because I suffered severe loses by the hands of investor advice or suggestions in the first place.

My focus is going to be on gold for the rest of the year as shorting is one of my favorite of not missing an opportunity.  With a few more people joining this Cycle degree wave 4 in gold will be continuously tested with real money and GDX.  Any futures traders must do the same thing as with gold future you can bring in astounding “green” returns.

Gold investor are parked on a Death Cross and the daily cross has already arrived and gone. We can see the little knife edge peaking out from the pack and by the time gold falls below $1045 the gold investor will be freaking out as billions will be wiped of the books in a flash. So far so good as my USD short positions will keep riding the gold bear down, and then up again into late spring of 2019. The 2011 peak in gold is not some flimsy Primary degree top, it is a Cycle degree wave 3 top and it’s correction and bear market is “FAR” from  finished. The last thing I want is to see, is my readers get hurt because I didn’t see a $500 gold crash coming.

This Cycle degree zigzag crash I have visualized in my mind, is the same as the one that Robert Prechter counted out in his video.  I see all these Death Crosses forming and I have warned three of my relatives already so they can watch it on the 6 o’clock news channel. Things are going to get ugly fast as the entire world is concentrating on that $1050 support for gold. I do not bet my future on a fricken flimsy “price”, as any real bottom was always $800! Investors are going to find out the hard way and I will not lose a tear drop for their losses!

I have tons to cover and some more trading detail to explain so we can have  good bottom entry with GDX. Everything I say can just be cloned or scaled up for any different capital base, but with $5000 USD being the bare minimum to start with for the Plan “A” trade setup.  I have been waiting for this since the 2011 top as it is my type of a market, wild and crazy!

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Gold Intraday: Last Chance To Be A Bull Market!

Well folks, the time is near as we approach the most important price level for gold, and that is below $1236. Just to be on the safe side I use $1234 as the official price failure confirming ig gold is in a bear market or not. Yes we are talking around a $2 window, to confirm this so called gold bull market!  From my Cycle degree perspective, the $1234 crossing confirms that all we had so far was just a bear market rally, and it is only a matter of time when the next price support also fails.

The next price support for this so called “bull” market is $1205.  Just so there is no doubt at all,  I will use below $1204 as the next price level when support fails. We have 4 to go for the entire trip, and the $1204 price level breach would complete two extremely important bull market support levels. Two out of four support failures still needs to get “taken out”, but when gold wants to start rolling down hill, you don’t want to get in it’s way, because from here on the stop loss “SELL” orders are piling up.

If you think the “gold dip buyers” are actually down there, don’t count on it, the gold bulls will turn on you and instantly turn into a bear as they scream “sell” at the hedge funds trading department. The hedge funds already dumped 700 tonne on the market, so do you think they are going to stay long after critical bull market support fails?

Those gold bulls will run south faster that we can think, pushing any retail gold bull out of the way as the gold price keeps crashing.  After the third support price level is taken out, then we are over the 50-50 support breach and the bearish sentiment (BS)  really starts rolling downhill. Then we only have one bull market support left to breach, at the $1047 price level.

After the $1047 price level fails then all argument about gold in a bull market will have failed as well. The implosion of the gold price will be on all the gold blogs and on your local TV news channel.  The gold bears are going to shred the gold bulls and eat them for breakfast, and I for one will be glad that I’m riding the gold bear down with short positions.

The problem with the $1234 crossing is that it leaves a big chunk of waves uncountable, and that you cannot have! It has no home folks, and therefore will destroy every bullish wave count they can dream up!  Those gold bull wave counting buckaroos, will get thrown off and they will use some lame fundamental excuse why their wave count is failing. Being able to bet on the markets going down ( short selling) with real money,  is a far more efficient use of any wave counts. If you don’t know how to “short sell”, then traders are only running at 50% efficiency at best!

About once a month I have a meeting with my friend “JP” who will retire in 2029 (SC Peak) and he knows my work very well. We can tie up a booth for hours and do detail analysis together. He understands the benefits of the ability to sell short any ETF when the time is right. I have 6 short positions out on gold and gold stock ETFs, so there is plenty of evidence that I’m testing my wave counts on a continuous basis. (Without the use of any stops!) I never use stops just like any other contrarian that I know. Shit if I were to use stops I would never be in the game as I would get kicked out all the time.

Much of my planning will be done with GDX , so I will talk more about planning for the biggest “knife catching tournament in gold’s history”!.  🙄

My friend JP is not a dummy he is very detail minded and he will spot major loopholes pretty quick. “JP” is also witnessing a bet I made on the direction of the gold price, no time limit just a very strict price limit. If Gold crashes below $1047 before it crosses $1400, he pays me a 10 ounce silver coin, worth about $242 CAD! If the gold price goes above $1400 then I pay him my silver 10 ounce coin. We have this bet documented which I will let my  friend JP witness.

I can get carried away in a gold post, but shit is going to hit the fan and lots of stuff will happen that nobody will be expecting, especially all those “complacent” gold bull investors.

 

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Gold Intraday Update: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

I warned my friends of a possible gold price meltdown and only a few that know my charts well agree with me. I have small short positions on Gold/Oil related ETFs and have no plans to get out like a scared rabbit!  We are still a few dollars away from retracing #4. That proves that at least one section was just a bear market rally, which does not fit any proper wave count I have ever used. One out of four is soon to be a bear market rally with three to go, You can’t have just one bump out in the open like that.  We are also sitting at the 50-day MA with the 200-day MA. still well below us.  Emotional bullish complacent gold bugs, are sitting on one of the most bearish indicators in our tool box, yet they are oblivious to it, or wish to ignore them.

Gold travels in 30 year cycles and when we count from the 1980 peak and add 30 years we get close to 2011 plus or minus one year. When we add 30 years to 2011 we get 2041 for the next major peak. That would be Supercycle degree wave 3 peak, but it would end with Cycle degree wave 5 having to complete first. After this Cycle degree 4th wave finishes, it could turn into another zizag bull market. I also have a price forecast for gold for that 2041 peak, but I’m not going to post it all the time. Just because I’m super bearish on gold right now, doesn’t mean I eliminate all gold bull markets.

I find gold bugs to in love with there investments as I will have no hesitation in shorting gold if I figure gold is going to crash in a 5 wave sequence.  We still have time but I will trade GDX when the time is right. Right now its a short bet. There is a very easy way to test gold if it’s in a bear market rally or not, and that is to, “SHORT ” GDX with 100 shares or 50 like I have. Then sit back and see what happens by the end of 2018.

Any investor that is willing to trade waves when they arrive should at least have funding of $10,000 in Cad or USD trading accounts and access to US and Canadian markets when they start.

 

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Death Cross In Gold?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-cross-appears-in-gold-for-first-time-since-2016-even-as-stock-market-slumps-2018-06-25

I tried to capture the Death Cross on gold’s daily chart, and it clearly shows how lagging this information really is. The Head and Shoulder line gave us an early warning that this may happen. Having to wait a month or two after the perfect buying or selling time, is far too late to execute. The vertical spikes into the peaks are the best selling signals long before the trend creates a ‘Death Cross’. I’m sure we will get an unexpected short term reaction, but this decline is far from over.

Counting the 2017 rally as an impulse is breaking every rule in the Wave Principle. I have a wave count from another e-waver that has the 2016 low as a wave 2 in Intermediate degree.  Yikes! Turning a diagonal or even a triangle wave structure into an impulse, is truly a Wizard of OZ type of a trick.

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Gold Crash Daily Chart Update

Many do not expect a bigger decline in gold and gold stocks, but that is always the case when prices have been pointing up.  Where we think gold is going too means little if we don’t understand bear market rallies.  The sooner that we except that this rally is just a bear market rally, then the sooner we could have taken evasive action. Like, close off long trades and even switch to a downside bearish position. Of curse that is already getting to be on the late side, because if we to short now this market will come back hard and force you out of the trade.

I show two arrows one long one and one very small arrow in October and November of 2017.  This small November bullish move is much the same as in the long arrow but it’s a small “C” wave, as for the big one it’s a triangle in a “B” wave.  That small “C” wave crashed right into December, completely retracing the entire “C” wave bullish phase.

What happens once in the charts, I use it at all degree levels. I see no reason why something at a very small scale, should not happen on a bigger scale.  To count this out as a bull market while being oblivious to diagonal wave counting, is a huge mistake which I try my best to avoid.

From late 2016 this bullish phase has been very choppy, and now gold has started to confirm my suspcions.  A triangle in a 5th wave decline can only happen in a  5th wave diagonal zigzag decline. This triangle is actually a very good long term sign as when it’s all over, then we should expect a much bigger bullish run by at least one degree higher. Patterns rule in the markets, not prices. Could you see the gold bull market coming when the price of gold hit $1050?  Did you see the recent crash coming when gold was at the $1360-$1375  price level? Not until someone suggests it and gives you adequate warning will it make anyone think twice.

Why should gold reach for the sky when oil is refusing to join in. If this scenerio is going to happen then my Gold/Oil ratio would go beserk. That ratio moves very little in short time periods, and it sure is not showing up in the Gold/Oil ratio I track.

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Gold Daily Chart: Bear Attack Update!

One thing I love about the waves in gold is that the have the ability to always move against the majority, when they least expect it to. Is this gold crash going to be called an unexpected correction, or was the entire move just another bear market rally? If we look back to the late 2016 low, followed by a rally. This bullish phase has so many overlapping waves that it is hard to find a single good impulse wave structure.  This type of pattern is what we would get when an asset class runs against its own larger trend. I’ve seen wave counts where the wave analsyts  turn all these waves into pure impulse waves, and therefore forecast a big bull market yet to come. Gold sure looks like it wants to head south not north so my bearish outlook remains.

This bullish pattern above can fit into a triangle which ended at the magic number of $1360. Any triangle in a “B” wave rally is very bearish as a “C” wave crash should follow.  The top resistance line also produced at least 3 H&S patterns.  Since my triangle is a Minor degree triangle then at the next big low, my degree level has to go up by at least one degree.

Most of the time it would be a two-degree change which will be the case for gold. Sure we have a long way to go, but gold can move $100-$200 with little effort. In silver this “B” wave is much lower and just as distorted.  For the entire 2017 bullish phase to be confirmed as a bear market rally, gold would still have to crash below $1120.

Last week the commercial traders added to thier short positions which is not a bullish indicator but a very bearish one.  If oil keeps on crashing like it has been doing, then I don’t see any reason why the Gold/Oil ratio will not drag gold down with it.  In any potential mini pani,  investors could end up selling everything in a desperate “dash for cash” once they realize that the gold bull market is crumbling all around them.

This could take until the September, October time period for all this to play out, so patience is the key this summer.

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Gold Crashes Joining Oil in the Decline.

Gold refuses to soar as forecast by the “Crystal ball readers of Wall Street”. Instead gold crashes right along with oil this morning. Sure, the $1300 price level had importance but now it’s more like a major resistance price level. The markets love even numbers so gold $1200 could be the next even number price target. Gold still has to retrace two sets of previous lows before it even gets close to $1200. By then anything can still happen.  Gold needs for the US dollar to turn real bearish, to provide the push in gold prices.

This has not happen regardless of what the gold bulls have been forecasting. When an asset class moves in a direction we do not expect, then we don’t throw out the idealized road map, but must take a new reading in where we think we are. Gold looks more like a triangle pattern but it does not fit into a 4th wave. It works as another zigzag decline, but my degree level still may need adjusting.   As we can see gold can crash dramatically when it wants to, and you can bet someone will always blame some fundamental news why gold also crashed.  These gold bearish moves is not a surprise if we look at gold as just one big bear market rally. Even gold could have established it’s 2018 record high with gold $1375.

A move like this reverberates through many other asset classes, so it’s never just about one asset class, but many of them will react during the same time.

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GLD Gold ETF 2011-2018 Review

I had to try different settings before I could use this chart to count out GLD. GLD tracks the price of gold not gold stock miners.  GLD tracks gold very well, like IAU does, and the trading volume always seems to be there as well.

The 2011 $185 price peak is my Cycle degree wave 3 location. Once I looked at the gold bearish phase from a diagonal wave perspective, things started to fit much better. The big problem is always trying to figure out where we are in this diagonal 5 wave decline. The explosive move from the 2015 bottom, to the 2016 peak, also works better as an inverted  zigzag.

What followed the 2016 peak, was a grinding decline, and in 2017  another gyrating bullish move. happened.  This bullish phase or overlapping wave structures, should be a clue that our present gold rally is struggling. When it struggles like this GLD is traveling against the larger trend.  Any gold chart or ETF gold chart is showing this bullish move, and the majority all think that gold is still going much higher. After all the bullish trend is still in place right?

The one thing that the majority will never figure out, what is a bear market rally and what is a true bull market. Only a very small percentage of traders or analystst know the difference.  I’m not talking about some imaginary conventional description of a 20% decline, as a simple 20% decline has little meaning in the Elliott Wave world.

From an Elliott Wave prespective, any bear market rally is completley retraced. In this case the low was in late 2015, which would have to get completley retraced.  Even if it’s only by a very small percentage. Since the 2011 peak we’ve had about 6-7 bear market rallies and they were “all” retraced, so chances are good that our present rally is also a bear market rally.

The bigger the bear market rally the more bullish investors get drawn into a bull trap, so identifying bear market rallies before the crowd does, is extremely important.

With about 15 of these ETF patterns in play and only “one”  ETF gets completley retraced, then all the others will eventually follow. This may take all summer and well into the fall, but a new record bottom will also produce a very good buying opertunity for the next bullish phase that is sure to come. This will be a Primary degree “B” wave bullish phase,  which will also be a bear market rally, but it will be a much bigger bear market rally by “one” higher degree.  The short description would be that gold can travel 1.618 times higher than the 2016 peak but not exceed any new record highs.  At about $175 we have a tripple top which would also produce an extreme resistance price level.

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Gold Intraday $1300 Price Update

The $1300 price level seems to be the magic number at this time, like $1360 was way back in April. Will the $1300 price level hold? I doubt it as price has little meaning while pattern is everything. I have started into the next higher degree 5 wave sequence which may still have more to go. It’s not the only proability as another zigzag decline can also be in progress. Gold does not look like it wants to go ballistic like many gold bulls are hoping will happen. Gold refuses to play that game as it’s been grinding its way down for a few months already.   It all depends on what we believe our understanding of what a bear market rally is and how it acts.  Conventional wisdom allows any upside move to be called a bull market, but from an Elliott Wave perspective all bear market rallies get completley retraced.

These bear market rallies can only be Primary degree or less as my largest degree is Cycle degree. Oil is a great example how a big bullish phase can hoodwink all of us into believing a bullish trend can go on forever!  No trend lasts forever as they will always turn against the most skewed trade set-ups all the time.  Gold has been struggling to go higher since the December 2016 bottom, which usally means that gold has been in a rally against the main trend. Since the 2011 peak gold has been meandering down in what looks like a 5 wave sequence but until we look at this decline from a diagonal perspective, what I count out will make little sense.  The mass media attention to gold is blinding us from looking at silver and even gold related ETFs.

Any move in silver has been lethargic at best, and is still miles away from breaking out to a new record high. I’m not going to spew out the same retoric as the gold bulls are doing becuase if I do, we end up in the same trap as the majority. I follow about a dozen gold and silver stock related ETFs and they’ve all have been acting like they are hung over after a wild drinking party.

The US dollar has been correcting but that may have its limits. The Euro has been taking a beating at the same time, but for gold to soar, we need a huge bullish phase in the Euro, and other US dollar inverse related currencies. An Intermediate degree bear market rally is enough to fool the majority while even a simple Minor degree bear market rally will send bullish analysts of on a tangent.

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Gold Monthly Chart 1980-2011 Primary Degree Review

I don’t like drawing trend lines most of the time because the trend lines do get abused to the point where they have lost their meaning and effectiveness. For well over a decade I counted all markets from a GSC degree perspective and thought little that the 1980 gold peak was nothing but a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. After all the 1980 gold crash produced a 20 year bear market, which many analysts called a secular bear market. Many GSC degree wave analysts never saw the 2000-2011 gold bull market coming as they were still bearish when gold hit $1000 in 2008.  They missed most of the gold bull market before they changed their minds and started an impulsive wave count.

There is no way that we should miss a gold bull market that was so big it took until 2011 to finish. This is when any Cycle degree wave 3-4 should have been thrown out but yet the majority of wave analysts still maintain gold as a Cycle degree wave 3-4, or worse SC degree wave 3-4. I have looked at gold with both degree sets but now look at gold from a Primary degree wave 3-4-5, for the 1980-2011 time period. This shifted the Cycle degree peak ahead by 21 years, and at the sane time-shifted any SC and GSC degree peaks much further into the future. Being out by just one degree, means the diffrenece between catching a major bull market or missing it entirely.

Reviewing this 1980-2011 time period and its wave count is very important to understand. I use the wording “Must” often and it has the same meaning as any basic EWP rule. EWP rules cannot be broken or ignored. Once I replaced the 2000 gold bottom with a Primary degree bottom then we know that 5 waves in Intermedeate degree must develop to complete the 5th wave in Primary degree. It was a very choppy ride with a big 2008 crash and correction that took most all other asset classes with it. Gold, oil, gold stocks and the general stock market imploded together.  The 2008 crash coincided well with the end to solar cycle #23 as well.

Of course many will never accept the idea of a Cycle degree peak in 2011, but I do. To confirm the gold market bearish phase it has to give us a very specific wave count. We always have 5 choices, but only 3 simple corrective patterns. Flats, Zigzags and Triangles make up this list. At this time we are looking at about 30 Cycle degree markets, with all the commodaties seeming to be in zigzag patterns in different stages.  There are a few that sure look like Cycle degree triangles, which is a rather rare pattern.

In 2016 we saw another bottom in the gold price at $1050, which many assume is the start of a new huge mega gold bull market. Sorry folks, ain’t going to happen on this trip, as the $1050 price is not nearly low enough to justify the completion of any 4th wave in Cycle degree. Our recent bullish phase may only be a 4th wave rally so until that clears up I will remain bearish in the shorter term.

It may take all summer for this pattern to clear up, after which another big gold counter rally will arrive, but it will be one degree higher. One degree can produce a 61% difference in price projections, and a quick calculation could send gold and gold stocks 61% above that mid-2016 peak. Once Cycle degree wave 4 is finished then I have no problem talking about a fuure $2300 gold price. If I mention that price too many times now, readers can make the mistake of thinking $2300 is just around the corrner.

Our recent Opec Oil bear attack slashed the oil price down to size, and sooner or later gold will not maintian its price. Gold to head north while oil heads south, is a poor excused to maintain a bullish gold forecast, as the Gold/Oil ratio will not allow for this to happen.

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Gold Intraday Crash Review $1300 Price Level Busted!

This morning gold crashed about $23 breaking the $1300 price level with ease. I mentioned that this was a very high probability and this morning it happened. We still have a bit to go as 5th waves tend to extend dramatically at times. I dropped my degree level down one degree of this 5 wave run, but I have to stay below Minor degree as we may still have to deal with a zigzag in Minute degree. The $1300 price level was a mental support price for all the bullish price action that was supposed to make gold soar. Gold is soaring alright, but in the wrong direction.

The US dollar also spiked higher this morning as I believe it’s a bullish phase is also far from over. In the near term for this summer and into the fall, I will remain bearish. In the past, gold has had few problems with moving $200 at a time in both directions. This decline is far from over, but we have to be aware that violent reversals can happen at any time, even if they may be temporary reversals.

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Gold Intraday Rally Review

In April gold created a spike to the upside and then proceeded to crash or go into a bearish phase. As soon as the May rally started gold opened with wave structures that overlap each other. This also makes it a candidate for a triangle. Gold stocks acted lethargic to this bullish phase, so they are not impressed with gold’s recent move.  This sure could make the $1302 just a temporary resting spot as another leg down should follow. My 5 wave decline in Minute degree may be a bit too large, but that can always be adjusted later on. I will keep my Intraday postings during the week, (Tuesday-Friday) as it is critical to spend time on my larger degree pictures as well.  Any site will give you short term trade setups as they are as popular as bathing suits in the summer!

No way will I spend my time giving readers short term trade setups as that is not what I use the EWP for. Any kid with the EWP book and a ruler, can give you short term trade setups.  Flipping numbers and letters around like we flip hamburgers is not my cup of tea.

So for now gold is acting bullish but this will not last as that $1300 price level should still get crushed!

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Gold Weekly Chart: 2011-2018 Bear Market Review

The Gold bull market soared until mid 2011, before it slipped into a grinding bear market. At that 2011 peak of about $1919,  I was still possessed by the SC  and GSC degree demons along with everyone else. It wasn’t until 2013 that I started switching “all” my wave counting over to a Cycle degree perspective.

Since Cycle degree comes before SC degree, all 5 waves in Cycle degree “must” be found first, before we can move into “any” brave new world of SC degree.  Gold just crossed into the new world of Cycle degree wave 4 in late 2011, and wev’e been hunting for a bottom ever since.  I think we are still far away from a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom in gold, but a Primary degree “A” wave sure looks promising.

I started with the above wave count many times, so it’s not something I picked out of a top hat. The challenge is always to figure out where we are in the corrective phase,  and not to get into a bull trap on a big fake bull run! A “bear market rally” would be a better term for it, and you have to remember that “all” bear market rallies eventually retrace the entire bullish phase from which they started from.

In the case of gold the late 2015 bottom ended at $1050, before gold charged up and then started to die.  Any future gold price dip below $1050 would confirm that our present bullish phase had been a bull trap.  All three parallel trend lines are based on the bottom line, then without changing any of the angles the top line matches the peaks very well. Within the rising wedge I have, the patterns are some of the wildest patterns I have ever seen, which does not fit into any bull market. Choppy rallies are usually signs of a rally going against the trend. Gold is now trapped in the cone of a rising wedge and some dramatic move has to happen for gold to break out, and show us its true path that is still in progress. I could be wrong here, but I love these setups before they happen. This wave count will be at odds even to my closest friends, so we need far more evidence of further declines to have the confidence in a fake bull market.

Silver would still have a long way to go to catch up with gold, as its pattern is far worse than gold. I don’t believe in the catch-up theory as they used that excuse many times before in 2011. What investors forget is that in 2008, Stocks, Oil and all gold related asset classes crashed together for a short period of time, and to say that this cannot happen again is not based on financial history. Most of the big swan dives that gold has taken in the past, have worked out close to $200 moves, which sure can cut our present $1314 gold price down to size.

I dislike drawing simple trend lines, but identifying  a rising wedge before all others see it, works to our advantage.

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Gold Daily Chart Review

Since December 2016 gold has displayed one ugly advance that only a mother could love! During the 2016 crash we could have a 3 wave crash, which allows the $1375 price peak to be broken to the upside this summer. If gold does breakout then the entire move,  would be called a “C” wave bull market in Minor degree.  At best this would allow gold to soar in the shorter term, but it still looks like a 4th wave rally to me, when counting from the late 2015 bottom.

This would keep money out of the markets, as I don’t chase bull markets when trading ETFs. I think the media focus on gold is blinding us to the potential for gold to finish a big bear market rally of Intermediate degree wave 4.

Just the fact I mention an Intermediate degree 5 wave pattern is a clear message to readers, that this blog has passed into the world of a Cycle degree 4th wave correction. I use a strict “rule” that no 5th wave should ever be left uncapped, and if you find one of my 5th waves uncapped, then send it to me and I will redo it. Actually capping the 5th wave is built into the EWP, I just emphasized it as a strict rule.

The big $1050 bottom has not even touched the previous 4th wave yet, so don’t get all cranked up about a $5000 or $10,000 gold price forecast coming soon!

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Gold Daily Chart: Is $1375 A Bull Trap?

 

Our present gold bullish phase was an extremely choppy ride and gold has been struggling as of late. We can go back 5-6 years and gold have struggled around this 1375 price level many times before. Based on the top line we also have 4 H&S patterns of various sizes, which would be very bullish in a bull market, but it would be very bearish if a big correction is coming.  I cannot stay bullish when I see this as it looks too much like a gold bull trap to me.

I did raise my degree level up by one, and the “A” wave I’m use can switch to a 4th wave easily. The rally that started in early 2017, can work as a triangle in a “B” wave. Any triangle in a “B” wave like this is very bullish in the long term, but short term gold bulls could be trapped.

We also have a rising wedge which we know can produce some violent trend reversals. Our present top could be a running inverted zigzag so a dip below $1300 would be the first logical price target to get breached.

Gold could turn bearish, along with the stock market, which has happened before during the 2008 crisis.  Gold could roll around some more, but if the entire gold bull market was a fake, then it must start to tell us soon.

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Gold Daily Chart Review

The Gold crash of late 2016 has just about been completely retraced and gold is finding tough resistance at the $1360 price level. Many times I have mentioned the $1375 price level as the price to beat to confirm the 2016 crash as a correction. We’re still about $25 away from the $1375 breakout and I’m confident gold will still clear $1375 with flying colors.  Wild moves in one direction and then a wild move in the other, seems to be the normal state of affairs.

I show a simplified “C” wave still in progress, but they are all diagonals, which is what we should expect for a “C” wave bullish phase.  All this is still pointing gold to the $1500-$1600 price range. A short term correction may still be in progress so I expect some violent moves as gold gets closer to a breakout situation.  Emotional investors jump in and out of gold for “safe-haven” reasons, so based on that it is impossible to know when investors suddenly get the urge to “buy”.

In the end it will be the US dollar bear market that will keep gold very active and until the US dollar is ready to charge back into a full bull market, the upward pressure on gold should remain.  It’s when this daily chart goes vertical, we have to wake up, as vertical moves do produce big bearish phases.

The biggest threat will come from stocks, when they start on bigger counter rallies. Gold and gold stocks will always find competition from the general stock markets and the idea is to spot any reversal before it happens, not after. It is the mass media that are always late in recognizing a trend change as the fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators.

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Gold Daily Chart Update: More Upside To Come!

Gold is making what looks like a correction, but with a bit more downside left to go next week.  Since the entire December 2016 low gold has created a choppy bullish phase that has been a real challenge to say the least. These choppy bullish moves also tell me that diagonal waves are involved, which develop in any degree “A”, “C”  in 5th waves. At this time the gold bullish phase is not finished, and that gold still has to break above the resistance price of $1375.

Bull markets don’t end when they are pointing down, they end when the charts are pointing up mostly in blow-off conditions. This blow-off condition should still happen which could push gold to $1400-$1600. At $1550 gold would run into the bottom of resistance, so gold has its short term bullish battle cut out for it.

The COT report has not been updated, but the previous week they added to their long positions in gold and silver even as they are still net short. With silver the commercials are just a bit shy of being even, which is a big change from what they used to have.

The US dollar bear market is far from finished and also has a bit more correcting to do. Also, as long as stocks are very bearish, then this alone could give gold a big boost! Some people are really hung up on the Gold/Silver ratio, which I think is irrelevant from a bygone era when silver was fixed to gold. Even though, I took a reading today, and the Gold/Silver ratio is at 81:1, which is the same ratio that happened with the 2016 bottom in gold. I will do a few more backward checks, but I don’t expect to find any Gold/Silver ratios helpful.

I use this gold futures cash chart for all my ratio calculations.

Gold stock ETFs  look like they are creeping down, but they can also still show us a good run. It is very common that gold can act much differently than gold stock ETFs can.

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Gold Intraday Rally: Impending correction?

An inverted zigzag could have started in the first part of March and they can always get retraced by 100% or more so until this clarifies, I have to look at a short term potential bearish move in gold. Besides that I am starting to notice that I’m working into degree levels that are getting smaller and smaller. I only have two smaller degrees left from what I’m using which is not a good sign. It means I have to take another look on the daily charts to see if a higher degree is warranted.  Any move down to $1300 would accomplish a complete retracement, but diagonal waves can trash the bearish outlook easily.

The US dollar may have a short term bullish surprise for us and until that has played out, gold will see downward pressure.  Any moves in this commodities world can be very violent which many traders do not like! Get used to it because leverage is one of the main causes of violent moves. Bitching about violent swings or thinking commodities shouldn’t crash is a totally naive outlook. In commodities “fear” is the main driver of prices. In the general stock markets, it’s greed and hope that drive prices.  Fear comes into play when stocks start to correct or head down.

I think gold still has to go well above $1375 as the  bull market has consistently produced higher lows. If we don’t pay attention to higher lows then we will always get out before it’s time to do so. When gold makes a vertical move, then it may be a different story.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Reversal?

I am looking at a potential move that might resemble a 5 wave run in a “C” wave bull market. We already have a higher low this month, which is the conventional description of a bull market. Gold is still creating higher lows since late 2015 when the bullish phase began.   I mentioned it many times that gold should still completely retrace the $1375 price level, which it had tried to do many times but has failed each time.

As long as the US dollar has not finished its biggest bearish move, then gold will see upside pressure regardless of what the expert opinions are at any given time.  We can’t rely on supply and demand scenarios as there is no end to the supply when we see pictures of the gold in the vaults.

Any rate increase may stun the gold bulls temporarily, but back in the 70’s rates were soaring right along with gold so it can happen again. The rate increases scheduled don’t even amount to a bee sting compared to what happened in the 70’s.

I think we will see the end to any rate increases by watching the 30-day Fed fund rate after it has flattened for a year or so. It may not even last that long as the first 1 to 2 pauses might be enough.

The gold bullish cycle so far has been very choppy, which do not fit into the perfect world of an impulse.

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March, 8, 2018 Gold Intraday Crash Update

Since the December, 2016 bottom, Gold has created higher lows which is the general accepted pattern that defines a bull market. Gold has finished a correction in early March and is now in another correction, which should not travel to any new low below $1304.  Gold might turn at the $1316 price level, but that remains to be seen. I have mentioned it many times that gold still has to retrace that $1375 price resistance level, and I will stick with that until it happens.

The pattern in the last 6 weeks or so sure looks like a correction, but to confirm it gold must travel above $1375.

Gold’s moves are more dictated by the US dollar when it rallies and declines. As long as the US dollar is still in a bear market, chances are good gold will react the opposite way. Besides the US dollar, the fear of a stock market crash may force a jump into gold.

When gold pushes higher and produces many inverted zigzags, then this will be a signal for yet another correction, but so far that has not been the case. We have about a $10 window to allow gold to still decline, so this would be enough to scare all the gold investors to make panic moves.  I will not fill in many of the previous waves, because this one little correction could fail, and I would have to work a new count anyways.  No gaps below or above present prices have opened up, so that is a good sign.

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Gold Daily Chart Review $1375 Or Bust!

Do you love choppy charts? Well, we have our share of wild moves in this gold market. I may have to change my wave 1-2 in Minor to an “ABC” also in Minor degree. At this time it’s not an important issue, as either way that $1375 price, should still get hit and or exceeded.

Since the late 2016 bottom gold has produced higher lows which is the conventional description of a bull market still in progress. The wild market action in gold in the last month or so, sure suggests a potential correction has taken place. The $1304 price level has been holding, so next week should tell us more.

February’s gyrations could just have finished so gold could see another leg up.  Gold also left a nice spike in its wake, so that also adds to a potential reversal. From the December gold bottom, gold soared $120, which I add onto the $1304 bottom. This ends up at the $1424 price level. If this happens then it may take all of March to play out.

All those that are complaining that the fundamentals in the stock markets haven’t changed, then you are not paying attention to Trump conducting a trade war! President Trump has declared tariff wars on steel and aluminum imports. The bears have tons of fundamental reasons for the markets to crash now. Conducting a trade war at the record stock market peaks of bull markets, is sure to bring down the house.

The last time they crashed the markets with a trade war, was when they past the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of  June 1930!

Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act – Wikipedia

 

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Gold Intraday Crash Update.

In my last gold update, I thought another move north would happen before gold resumed its decline. This did not happen, instead gold dropped like a rock. Since the January peak the pattern has far too many overlapping waves, which sure can fit into a corrective pattern.

The wild bullish moves in the US dollar, was the main reason for gold’s decline. Gold and the US dollar move inversely to each other many times, and therefore once the US dollar rally comes to an end, gold should make a very positive run.

Right now gold has come to a stop at the $1304 price level, but a quick drop below $1300 could still happen. Overall a flat could be forming, where the “C” wave is part of a regular flat. If another fake bull run starts to happen, and it also becomes another zigzag, then we may have to look at a potential 3 sets of zigzags, with a potential “D” wave bullish cycle about to take off.

There is no way that I would count out a wave two correction with a triangle, so any triangle will force a change to that January peak. Another zigzag should travel well above my “B” wave in Subminuette degree which is at the $1360 price level.

As I post gold is still on a rally so hopefully we will get more than just another counter rally. As long as stocks and the US dollar have the potential to decline, then golds strong bullish phase can still happen.

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