Tag Archives: Gold Bull Market

Gold Intraday Bull Market Review

Gold has had an amazing run, with a net move of about $100.  This great gold bullish phase could be coming to an end if  another wave 1 is getting close to completing.  Depending on the strength any wave 2 can dip back down with a net 60% retracement. This would make the 1270 price level a target. There is also no way of knowing how bullish the correction can be, especially if we get a flat of some kind. Running flats are a part of the wave landscape which can produce extreme moves to the upside.

The bottom trend line is just a guide as any correction bigger than expected, will slice right through this trend line.

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Gold Rocket Rally Update

10 charts that show why gold is undervalued right now | MINING.com

It’s amazing that analysts have just figured out that gold is undervalued, when the gold price is pointing up.They sure didn’t come up with any undervalue charts when gold was at $1125. Matter of fact, they were downright bearish when gold hit a bottom in December of 2016. They were dumping gold for Bitcoins was the main theme at that time. Who needs that ancient relic in our portfolios,when stocks are still going up?

Gold bullion should always be part of any holdings, but we should never buy gold when it is pointing up. Buying high destroys any cost averaging advantage and most of all it defeats any protection that gold offers against inflation. In 1999 gold investors also ignored gold as a hedge against inflation, but they sure loved gold as an inflation hedge when the gold price touched $1920.  Emotional investors have not changed one bit as they still love to buy high and then sell low in disgust when gold heads back down.

The short story is that the majority always does the wrong things at the wrong times, just like they are doing now. Due to this rapid rise, I think gold needs to correct, but picking correction bottoms usually doesn’t work, due to the fact we could be on another diagonal run.  We could get a very fast reaction, after which the bullish trend will just return and carry on.

Maybe the gold’s rise is all about the rise in the minimum wages this year? They are calling a $15 per hour a living wage, which only a few states are trying to implement. In my province, we are at about a $10.50 CAD minimum wage. This works out to about, a USD (.25) gold gram per hour, or two gold grams per 8hr day. ($84) per day.

Increase in wages does translate into more inflation down the road, but in my working days we got 20% pay raises per year for 4 years in a row. That really kicked in the inflation in the mid 70’s, but our wage increases couldn’t keep up with the rate of inflation. Eventually the middle class got wiped out during the 80’s and wages stagnated. In 2-3 years’ time, when gold touches $1600 US,  you would have to earn $200 per day just to keep up with inflation.

When the gold price shoots up, but the wages refuse to follow, then we are always falling behind in the rate of inflation. Having gold assets mitigates this effect when money becomes worth less in our future.

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Gold On A Run Update: Time For A Rest?

It seems like gold is on a marathon run, hardly taking a breather. No trend lasts forever, even at these small degree intraday levels. This rally changed from bigger wave corrections to smaller corrections that we can hardly count out.  This has the classic diagonal wave structure signature, so until better subdivisions come along, this will have to work as an inverted zigzag.

It could be a slow correction or a mini flash crash like move, with no real firm retracement level in sight. Even though it looks like a vertical move on the daily scale, in this intraday scale it has a bit more of an angle to it.

We are coming up to a potential H&S setup so this may add some resistance as well.  We’ve seen these types of H&S setups many times before, with most of them ending up being extremely bullish.  I don’t expect, this time to be any different.

This gold rally got help from the US dollar decline, causing stupid emotional investors to jump on the bandwagon.  Many investors only care that something keeps going up, as they couldn’t care less about any fundamentals. Without those trend chasers, contrarians have nobody to pick on, or no gold bulls to sell to in the future.

The big bull market in gold is still in progress, and it could take all of next year before it becomes more clear to a greater majority. That day has not arrived, even though gold is pointing up, like what we would see in a final blow-off situation.

The main price level of $1375 still has to get retraced in the short term, while longer term the Gold/Gold-stock ratios, will need to shift to the expensive side.

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Gold 2011-2017 Review

Since the 2011 peak, gold suffered a bearish phase for about 4 1/2 years before it exploded in 2016.  In general, when a wave count just doesn’t fit well at certain points, then I try and work it from a lower degree perspective. I know that the majority of participants work only from a price perspective, and I get that, but the sad truth is that contrarians don’t work on price. They work on crowd psychology. They also never waste their time drawing a bunch of useless trend lines, nor do they spend their time drawing numbers and letters on any chart. The majority of the trading world works on “Price”, and short term trade setups. One main reason that there are so many short term traders is because they have no clue what the big trend actually is, or what it’s going to switching to.

Gold is extremely cyclical and the contrarians love this. In the cyclical gold market, “If your not a contrarian you become a victim”. Buy Low, Sell High is the contrarian way. When insiders in gold companies are buying their own shares back, then this has to get reported. The same applies when they are selling. In 2013 the gold news was full of insider buying reports and even now gold stock insiders of gold companies are buying into their own shares. I have a contrarian friend I visit regularly, and he constantly looks for insider buying before he takes any positions in any single gold related company.

Ignoring this public information, ignores a great contrarian indicator that helps us in forecasting a bull or bear market in gold and gold stocks.

Any real contrarian cannot afford to miss any big bull market in gold stocks. Sure, many times they are getting in too early, but high net worth individuals need that extra time to accumulate large positions. The idea that we should never add to a losing position is irrelevant to any contrarian. In the contrarian world, it’s all about accumulating positions in preparation for the bullish phase still to come.

I dropped the 2011 top down to a lower degree wave 3 in Intermediate degree. A lower degree level is far more sensitive than higher degree levels are, and the 2011 peak is a prime example. Many were calling for a Gold Supercycle to go to $5000-$10,000, yet gold did the opposite thing and crashed to $1050. For a Cycle degree  wave 3 top in 2011 to be in play, the $1050 price level is not nearly low enough for a Cycle degree correction to be over, but a $1050 Intermediate degree bottom, could fit.

For now, and maybe a bit longer into the new year I will look at the commodity bullish market from an Intermediate degree perspective. Since that $1050 bottom gold jumped 130% before another bearish phase kicked in. This bearish phase that ended in late 2016, is not part of the bigger bearish phase, but it’s part of the new bullish phase that started in 2016. If this is reasonably close, then eventually gold will travel above the $1919 price level. Even if doesn’t perform that well and never makes it to a new high this time, then it will do it at another time in our future.

It would be pretty exciting to see a potential diagonal set of 5 waves develop in gold, but we have to keep our options open as well.  Any big bullish phase in gold will not end just because of a big bearish dip in price. They end when the majority display extreme optimism.  Not owning bullion when the stock market is pointing up, is a constant mistake investors do and have done many times in the past.  When stories come out that investors and fund managers are dumping gold to jump into Bitcoin, it tells me investors have learned nothing about gold. Emotional investors jump on anything that’s going up, and they jump off when it’s going down.

I will try and get a few Gold stock related reviews in,  but will take a break until next week.

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Bitcoin Crash, Gold 2.0 Myth Busted

I increased the degree level to where the start is now a Minute degree. During the last 5 days Bitcoin crashed about $9000 and has now recovered a bit. From my perspective, I have not run into a set of good looking declining 5 waves in a very long time. Any little 5th wave acted like a diagonal, which makes Bitcoin wave counting an excellent experience. There could be more of this counter rally to go, but sooner or later the counter rallies will get bigger and take longer to play out.

I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count quickly, and so far have not had to change it, but may have to at a later date. Three sets of visible 1-2 waves will certainly give us a wave three extension, until the next 5th wave decline starts. If the last  5th wave contains many choppy wave structures, then that will help to confirm a new higher degree will be forming. Also, any 4th wave triangle that may form will also help in confirming our location.

Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high – MarketWatch

Unless I can see a clear zigzag or flat starting to set up, there will be no telling how deep Bitcoin can crash. We heard the stories about the myth that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 which has now been exposed as pure bullshit. At one point $200 billion worth of Bitcoins evaporated in a puff of electronic smoke.

This Bitcoin crash changed the Gold/Bitcoin ratio form a peak of 15:1 to a bit under 11:1. This is not even close to the 3:1 ratio we did have at one time. Also, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever rise from the ashes again.  At a 3:1 ratio Bitcoin would have to fall to $3800 USD, which is very close to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.   As of today, the Crypto count is about 1377, with no end in sight just yet. When the list stops growing or even starts to shrink, then this Crypto party is over.

Below, we look at gold and how it reacted to the Bitcoin crash during the same 5 days.

Gold, dipped a bit, but in most part gold completely ignored the crash of Bitcoin. Gold kept chugging along, pushing higher every step of the way. I think gold has more room to make gains in the short term, but it’s starting to form a nice spike on the daily charts.  I didn’t touch my bigger wave count as I just couldn’t find a more convincing alternative at this time. Either way this gold bull market has a long way to go in time, and price.  It’s not the top projected price that’s important, but the mood that will be present, is far more important. Also, the Gold/Hui, and gold ETF ratios should become very expensive.

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December, 15,2017, Gold Daily Chart Update

Our recent gold crash, seems it has turned a corner about 3 days ago, and so far so good.  A wild move in both directions is still possible, but if we just finished an “ABC” correction, then gold, “Must not”, fall below July 2017 lows.  From the July 2016 peak of $1375, gold also created a deep zigzag crash, which eventually must get retraced. Now from the 2017 peak, we have another zigzag looking crash, which “must” also be completely retraced. To say the least we have an interesting setup for gold to rally well into 2018 or longer. 

We have higher lows, through much of the bearish phase, which is a sign of a bull market. “C” wave bull markets can extend past any realistic expectations, because bandwagon jumpers just love to buy high, thinking that a greater fool will take these assets off their hands. We are not anywhere near this euphoric stage, so we have a long way to go, before the big bullish scenario has completed. 

We have two major price hurdles for gold to cross next year, which is the $1355 and $1375 price levels. 

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Gold Intraday Bottom Update

Gold hits a bottom at the $1237 price level, and has now started to charge back up. I use the smallest three degree levels to start with, but over time will adjust as each degree level starts to materialize.  In this case I would need 5 waves up in Minute degree, so I make a rough calculation in what I think I may need. For now we have come off a wave 2 in Minor degree, but this may also get changed. The big thing to remember is that gold is in a bigger bull market than what we can imagine at this time. No, gold is not going to $5000 $10,000 this trip! Gold is very cyclical 

Nobody has the patience anymore, to play these bull/bear cycles, but when gold goes vertical like a Bitcoin, then you will see investors jumping on the gold band wagon.  They just love to buy high in a cycle and the contrarians love to sell to them.  The gold bullish cycle could last a lot longer than I originally was thinking, but if 80% or more of my indicators show up earlier than expected, then we have to have a serious second look. 

Gold is a hedge for inflation, so when we forecast the price of gold to go up, we will see inflation numbers rise as well. To make gold work as an inflation hedge you have to buy gold “before” it starts on a bull market, not after everybody has already jumped in. 

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Gold Intraday Crash Review

At the October 7th bottom I increased my degree level by one degree, which makes a potential wave two bottom in Minor degree. It seems like a simple change, but in reality, most wave positions since the 2016 bottom must also be changed. The speed of the decline is related to the steep angle as they are one in the same most of the time.   This mini crash sure looks like a nice zigzag but we could be fooled if some bigger correction is still pending. 

The US dollar has also moved a bit higher than expected, but has now started to correct or started another bearish phase this morning. Any downward pressure on the US dollar will help to give gold the extra push needed for the gold bulls to once again feel smart. 

Gold fought with the $1300 price level, but then got pushed back again to the $1282 price level. Silver imploded about the same, but silver has a different path it has to fight with. 

Gold stocks did not react so dramatically like gold did, which is a very bullish signal.  Any Gold to gold stock ratios do not show any extreme values at this time, but when it does, then it would be wise to increase the frequency that we make those ratio calculations. 

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Intraday Update, The Golden Turkey Rally!

 

Gold futures have not stopped trading during Thanksgiving and Columbus Day. Did the majority suddenly want to buy gold in the last few days, or is the threat of WWIII causing gold to rise? I like to think it’s just a Turkey related gold rally, but you never know until this rally shows that it keeps right on going. Short term, there is never any way to really know if this rally is a fake.  It can work as a single zigzag which could also terminate at a wave 1.

I always start off with the small degree levels, as the degree level can be adjusted as the pattern develops. Any anticipated correction can act very violently and be over and done in a flash. So far the US dollar has been cooperating as it seems to be in the mood to go down helping to push the price of gold up.

Silver has also been on a good bullish run, and it is starting to correct as well.  There could be a gut reaction where gold and stocks head down together for a short period of time, as that did happen on a larger scale in 2008.

Gold cleared those ugly high speed moves back in early Oct and it may have something to do with futures expiration dates as well. Fundamentals can change rapidly, and it will drive you nuts if you let yourself get caught up in what the majority thinks.

When gold heads down bearish fundamentals get reported, but when the price of gold goes up, then all the bullish fundamentals get reported. Many of the mainstream fundamental forecasters don’t have the confidence in the bigger gold bull market so they will swing with the markets most of the time.

The gold stock ETFs are still relatively cheap when compared to gold, but until all the ratio numbers reverse, the bigger gold bullish phase is still alive.

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Gold Intraday Crash Update

With this wave count I moved the degree level up by one degree, making this a potential wave 1-2 in Minute degree. Gold has retraced well into a previous gully, and could be setting up for a H&S type pattern. It does not mean that this price level will hold, but at this time there sure seems to be a full set of 5 declining waves with a regular extension for wave 3. 

If we are landing at a potential “A” wave, then we should expect another bullish move, that can go back up by 60-80% or closer to the $1335 price level. 

Depending how high any counter rally will eventually go then the “C5” wave may not crash as deep as any zigzag suggests. Any zigzag can look like a flat as long as it shows a 5-3-5 wave structure. One thing I always try to look for, is an alternating pattern between the A5 waves and the C5 set of waves. 

The “C”wave could crash without any clear subdivisions showing up, or the “C5”  wave can be so choppy forcing us to pull out our hair trying figure out what the hell it is. Many wave counts will not make any sense if we don’t have a clear picture of where we are counting from. 

In the case for gold we have a clear picture, even though we may have to change the count itself again. In the long run gold still has to leave the $1375 price level in the dust, as without gold crossing this price peak, the entire gold correction from the July 2016 peak, will not be confirmed. 

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Gold Intraday Crash Update

The 4th wave counter rally was a bit bigger than expected, but it also makes for a better looking “C” wave decline. The zigzag alternated in size so that is a good sign,  as this is a pretty standard pattern for a zigzag. Another little 5th wave to go and then gold should rally once more. The news may be about another impending rate increase, but this will not impact gold in the longer term just yet. From the 70s to the 80’s gold and rates climbed together, and besides gold stocks are still relatively cheap. I could see it if gold stocks were extremely expensive already, but then any rate increase crashing gold would just be a coincidence. 

If my wave count is too small then yes,  gold could go much lower than expected.   Silver imploded as well, so it was not just gold related. 

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Gold Intraday Correction Review

It takes very little to get into a panic thinking that the gold bull market is over. Mind you, most bull markets end with some type of vertical move just like this.  This correction may even take a bit longer than we might be expecting as gold is stuck around the $1300 price level. Gold may still dip below that $1300 price level just to shake off the late comers to the gold bandwagon. 

Any potential zigzag I may have at this point,  is still just a bit short. A small 5th wave dip may still happen, but they can also happen very fast and look more like spikes. 

This gold bull market has a long way to go, but my degree level will need adjusting along the way. A Minuette degree wave 2 decline is what I’m using  right now, and I may adjust again at a later date. 

Far more gold bull riders need to jump on gold’s next bullish phase, to make it interesting. At this present $1350 top gold has stopped at my bullish trend line, but the bigger trend lines still point to a potential $1600 price level. I mentioned that the $1375 price level will give some resistance, so for gold to show its true bullish nature, gold would still have to blast past the $1375 price level. 

Gold stocks have not taken too big of a dive, which I see as a good sign.  A big bear market rally is next to impossible for the majority to tell the difference  between that and a real bull market, as it is pretty hard to tell the difference in mood wise. Any “D” wave can be just as bullish as any wave 1 would be, so eventually the pattern will help us to see the difference.   When insiders start to sell their own gold shares, then it will be time to sit up and take notice. 

Until that day arrives gold should keep heading North by about a 45 degree angle. 

Words of war are being tossed around just about on a daily basis, but gold can also crash when this talk of war just ends up being a scare tactic.  I need to catch up on some of my Gold/Gold ETF ratios, but I don’t see any concern there at this time.  

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Gold Intraday Crash Update

Since last Friday the 8th gold has backed off with vigor. It was not a crash which usually produces spikes, but this decline has a nice roll to it that looks like it was made to order for a declining impulse wave count.   Any 5 wave decline is a pointer that more downside is coming and I don’t think this decline is done just yet.

Of course that “ABC” sideways pattern (expanded) would also work for a single zigzag.  A wild correction up and then down again would help to confirm that we are just in a bull market correction.   Gold has not stopped at any significant previous low, so the $1323 price low has no real meaning at this time.

From the recent peek gold dropped a Fibonacci $34  and has now started to rally. Between $1305 and $1300 we have the first real bull market low, so gold could still hit this price range.   Since $1300 is such an important psychological number, it would not surprise me if gold actually dipped below $1300! That would send the technical traders into a mini panic, when the $1300 price level doesn’t hold.

No sooner that gold falls below $1300, a reversal sends gold soaring back over $1375.  I mentioned how difficult it would be for gold to break out, but in due time I’m sure gold will soar again.   Since every peak in the gold price can produce a questionable wave count, we may have a correction that may take much longer to play out than we may think.

When we do end with a fairly large spike to the downside, then, that would make me a happy camper.  As long as we continue to get “ABC”corrections to the downside, the gold bull market will remain in tack. “ABC” corrections produce the higher lows which is the conventional description of a bull market.

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Gold Intraday Roaring Bull Market Review

Gold has been on a rip snorting move for the last 10-11 weeks and has now started a correction. Last time,  gold pushed a few more dollars higher before gold went vertical. This does not mean the gold bull market is over but we should get a correction before it resumes its upward trend.  I set up the wave count with a possible wave 3 as an extension, but it also contains a 5th wave extension.  Any correction could happen at lightning speed and would be over before we know what’s going on. 

Fear is the main driver of commodities, but fear moves never last that long. Many may now use the fundamental play book as the reason that gold is on a run, but where were those forecasters when gold was down at $1050?  In the long run, I will work a Primary degree zigzag that could end on a Primary degree “D” wave. Even now I have been using up all the degree levels down to Miniscule degree so I’m sure an adjustment will have to be made at a later date.

Gold has now topped at $1355  which is only about $20 away from breaking out to new bull market highs. I mentioned we could get some stiff resistance when we get close to $1375, but if the bigger trend is in place, then this $1375 price level will be left in the dust. 

Other commodities are also taking hits this morning so it’s not an isolated move. Gold is still pointing to the $1600 price level. Those that are jumping on the gold bandwagon late, usually do it just before a correction is about to take place and their position turns into the red instantly. 

As long as we keep getting flats and zigzag corrections, then this bull market is far from being over. 

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Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Update

I’m going to carry on with this potential zigzag, but it could all fall apart just the same.  I’m going for a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, which would extend any potential wave 3.  There is little room to spare with this wave count, so it won’t take that long to make or break it.  It may take until late next week before the gold market breaks into another leg up. 

Gold stopped dead at $1300 which I do see as an important number as it has repelled from this ceiling 3-4 times in the past already.  Ultimately, it will take gold until it clears that $1375 price level, to confirm that this bear market since the mid June 2016 peak,  was just a correction. 

Most gold stocks related ETFs should also do the same thing in the long term. Gold stocks are lagging behind gold, as they are not on the same wave count as gold, but in the end gold stocks should still go vertical at the peak of any major bullish run. 

From early 2016, gold soared, but I don’t consider that as a vertical run. The present gold run is not an Elliott wave rocket science observation anymore, as more and more fundamental analysts are jumping on the gold bandwagon.

When this gold bandwagon gets too full or overbooked, then it will be setting up for a crash. 😎  

 

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Gold Intraday Bull Market Review Resistance Is Futile!

I mentioned in a previous update that gold could see some stiff resistance at the $1280 price level. $1280 is going to collide with my long term bearish top trend line, based on the 2012 high of $1800. Sure, I want to see gold smash through that $1280 barrier sooner than later, but at $1300 we  also have a triple top we have to contend with.  If we go back further, there are  at least a couple of more $1300 price level peaks.  It seems that $1300 is also a magic number, at least in the short term.

The correction that we had in the last few days, was not nearly deep enough for a good wave 1 correction, but it sure can fit a 4th wave correction. We still could get a small extension right up to $1300, but then we could suffer another potential wave 2 correction, in Minuette degree.

I’m working a potential “C” wave bull market in Minor degree, which has a long way to go, before we will ever hit any wave 3 in Minuette degree.

It will be a big test of gold’s bull market strength, as once it breaks free of the $1280, $1300 and $1375 price levels, it will help confirm that the bullish phase is still alive and well. This is not Elliott Wave forecasting rocket science folks, as we are about $90 or so away, from achieving those price targets.

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Gold Intraday Correction Update

I’m going to keep working this as a potential diagonal set of waves even though they look very close to an impulse type of a wave. Even though gold lurched to the downside this morning, it has now started to rally. It does not mean that this correction has already finished. 

I would like to see a much deeper correction like 60% or so. In a stronger market it may not necessarily go that low before reversing, as stock markets heading south, sure would make gold an attractive alternative.

This does not always play out this way, but we have to be aware that stocks are in direct competition with gold.  Gold may rise big time once stocks head south, but gold can also crash just as fast, when the stock bullish phase returns.  We may not always catch this at the intraday level, but we should see the setup when we use daily charts.

I’m not convinced that gold is going to soar into the Mesosphere any time soon, as no asset class travels in a continuous straight line. Everything in the markets is cyclical, including climate change. Yet the experts agree that anything but a straight line will happen. 

Long term gold could be heading to a “D” wave type of a pattern, which may take well into 2018 to play out. 100 years ago the silver bull market ended in late 1918, along with many other commodities, so we do have time to spare at this time.  At that time it was a 13 year bear market, and we already have a 5 year bear market already completed.  I’m not saying that a 13 year bear market is in progress as we need to wait until this gold bullish phase has completed.

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July, 30, 2017 Gold Intraday Update

Last week gold corrected and then pushed higher in what may look like it was an impulse type of a move. Most of the time I don’t trust any 5 wave impulse as they can be diagonal waves in disguise. I think there should be a correction coming that will take longer than just a day or two, to play out. 

We still have some upside room left that may last into early August. (2 days) How deep or long any correction can take is a best guess scenario right now, but we need a bigger correction so another base can be established for the next 5 wave bullish leg up. 

These waves are subdivided using the last Miniscule degree level in my list, and in the next impending sequence, we would jump up by one degree level. Five waves up in Subminuette degree would be the next set of waves I will use, after which the entire move would need to be adjusted again. If this gold bullish phase has any staying power at all, then it must keep making higher lows. “Higher lows” is the conventional description for a bull market, but with the EWP they would all be some type of a 3 wave pattern. 

Short term the $1295 price level would need to be crossed with that illusive $1375 price level, also on my  target list. It is rare that a single move travels in one direction for a very long time, but corrections can take place when we least expect them.   

The COT reports were active last week, as the commercials added to their gold net short positions, while the speculators took the bullish bets. Just because the commercials add to their net short positions does not mean that this gold bull market will suddenly come to an end. It is not necessarily important if they are net short or net long, but it is important when they shift.  The mainstream media loves to report what the speculators are doing, but they are the wrong guys to watch because they are the emotional trend chasers and constantly get into speculative bear or bull traps. 

Last week the COT positions also shifted with our CAD and the US dollar, so it is something to watch if these trends will continue.  

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Gold Intraday Potential Correction Update

For most of July gold has made a very decent run, completing a set of 5 waves. Let’s say it looks like a set of 5 waves, but it can  also be part of a bigger diagonal wave structure. In any impending correction, gold may not even go that deep, but the $1236 price level may be one area that any gold correction may find support. In a potential diagonal run, what I show as a wave 3 peak could also be a wave one peak, (ABC1) Any present diagonal decline may be very shallow, as another “C” wave or C5 wave can be added on. This may take some time to sort out, but if the gold market has resumed its bullish phase, then that elusive $1375 price level is still a reality in our future. 

Silver has broken ranks from gold, which is not that much of a surprise, as silver has marched to a different drummer from gold many times in the past.  Short term we may see a correction, but longer term the bull market in gold is still alive.

My friend mentioned $3000 gold to me yesterday, but I don’t think this will happen on this trip. I look at Fibonacci numbers and if we use the $1375 price level and add on 1.618 we would get closer to $2224. This is also a very long shot at this time, so don’t get too excited about any one of these two numbers being reached in the next few years.   

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Gold Intraday Bull Market Review

Gold has been on a great looking impulse type of a pattern, and it sure looks like another correction has ended after which gold charged higher. The gold bulls are in control as investors are also fleeing the stock market, helping to push gold higher. 

I moved the start of this bullish phase up one peak, which makes the present rally as a potential 5th wave.  Any 5th wave in commodities can extend, so if wave 3-4 has completed we can still add a big move to the upside in the gold price. 

I started out with Micro degree and will continue with that for the time being. Micro degree is 3 degree levels lower than the Minute degree wave 2 bottom that I show back down at the July bottom.  It would take about 3 degree levels before we ever hit wave 2 in Minute degree, so we have a long way to go.  I may have to bump up that July bottom to a Minor degree, but we still have time to do that at a later date. 

I’m very pleased to see a run in gold like this, but we have to be aware that diagonals can come on strong at any time. Many of the gold stock ETFs  have also started to show bullish action again, and the overall price forecast is for all the commodities to exceed that mid 2016 price peak again. 

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Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Review

I had posted a very bearish,  daily wave count, but I think it only has a slim chance of ever happening. The July bottom could have been a wave two bottom in Minute degree and that would make our present rally the kick off, to the next bullish phase.  I started the count with Micro degree, but may have to adjust it as the pattern keeps building.

At any time we could get flash crashes, but if these intraday  implosions have a very steep angle of decline, then chances are good that it is just part of a “C” wave correction.  Where I presently have a wave 3 top could also work as a 1-2 wave as well, so that alone can still send gold soaring.  Gold has broken up and away from any invisible declining trend line, so that should continue, if the bigger bullish phase is still alive.

$1240 would be the next hurdle that gold has to leave in the dust, with the $1375 price level being one of the most important price levels gold has to retrace. 

Each gold stock ETFs, or index that I cover show different corrective patterns, which can test a gold bull analysts faith many times. The HUI has been holding up the best, with others showing good corrective patterns.

For now this gold run should continue, but  as usual, expect corrections when you least expect them to happen, especially when a gold spike goes vertical.   

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Gold Daily Chart Review

In the face of a good jobs report gold could not hang onto its support, but at $1200 we may get close to another potential support base.   From the “B” wave bottom gold created  one ugly looking rally, that could fit into a big bear market rally. If that were the case gold stocks would be dropping like a rock as well. Contrarian indicators would also be flashing a sell signal, but that would’ve happened back in June of 2016.

Gold is still plunging as I post, and we would be getting closer to a potential H&S base by the time gold hits that $1200 price level.  I could see a bigger bearish gold picture if insiders of gold companies are actually selling, but  this is not the case as it would be pretty public news when it happens.  Insiders do not buy their own company shares on a whim, and they sure don’t sell out a  month or two later. They will hold for many years before they think that they have to sell. Steven Jon Kaplan does an excellent job in tracking gold stock insider activities. He also tracks fund flows in and out of gold stock related asset classes as they are buying signals as well.

Longer term I’m bullish until gold soars well past the $1375 price level, and gold stocks have also soared past their respective 2016 peaks.

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Gold Intraday New Low Review

What looked like a promising run on another leg up, gold died this morning and crashed to a new low. Now we have what looks like a set of 5 waves heading down.   This could all bring us to another “A” wave if we are just part of the way through. Gold could react violently to the upside, but gold would run out of steam at some point. 

Right from the early June peak, gold started with a diagonal move,  so that set the tone for the rest of the decline. Is there a chance that one single zigzag, is still in progress? There sure is,  but then I would want to see gold head a bit lower in the short term. 

Longer term I’m very bullish on gold, but short term it sure does not look like it is heading north.  Looks are deceiving with Elliott Waves, especially in commodities where diagonal waves seem to dominate.  Silver is another one of those assets that have extreme diagonal waves in its structure. When I see analysts struggling to fill in a silver bull market with impulse waves, then I know they don’t understand diagonal wave structures. 

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Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In the last 3 days, gold has turned a corner. How big of a turning is always debatable, but the start sure looks like it contained an impulse. I started with a Micro degree and ended up using the smallest degree down to the Miniscule level. When need be, I will always adjust the degree levels, but at this time I think I can run it for a bit longer.

Any great impulse start can change to diagonal waves very quickly as this may just lead to another “A” wave for a diagonal wave 3.

Gold has the best chance of showing a much bigger impulse, so I remain bullish until the next potential strong correction. I will have to adjust my degree levels if we are heading up to a “D” wave, instead of a 5th wave in Intermediate degree.

Either way, the bigger bullish phase is not over, as higher lows help to confirm it. Any downside to the markets will just push the fearful to jump on the gold bandwagon again.  Gold always has to compete with the general stock market, but they have also moved together in the past. 2008-2011 was one of those times.

Gold stocks all saw bullish activity again today, which also helps to confirm gold’s bull market. Gold stocks did not thrash around like gold, which is also a very good sign. Not until all gold stocks become rather expensive to gold, do we have to take another major look at the bigger picture. 

 

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Gold Intraday Bearish Phase Review

I’m still counting gold as a potential 5 wave diagonal bull market, but that may have to go into hibernation if this keeps up. We are only about $28 from gold crashing below $1215 which will kill one big part of my bullish scenario. Below $2015 I would have to take that bullish phase from the May bottom,  and look for a potential inverted zigzag. 

There are no real support levels on the way down, as there is no major dip in the May 2017 rally. Even the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree did not hold. Wave 2 bottoms can go well over 60% retracement and at the worst it could retrace 99.9999% of the entire bullish phase before we can call it completely dead. Even an 80% retracement can still happen as well. 

With most corrections I use, 20, 40, 60 or 80% retracements going up and down, but retracement levels do not mean that much when we really don’t know where we are. I spent years calculating retracement levels and rarely do the work they way they calculate them in the EWP. 

Most of the time I have to keep 3 potential wave counts going, and the trick is to eliminate the wave patterns that just refuse to fit well. This is also the main reason why I review the bigger degree charts as much as I do. 

Yes, we still could see a bit of a downside, but this bearish phase has been going on a bit too long for the degree that I’m using.

Longer term I retain my bullish outlook, but I may have to switch back to my “D” wave bull market, if this bearish phase doesn’t turn soon.  

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Gold Intraday Crash Review

In June gold has seen a significant decline, which sure looks like it can continue. Many may think that this gold bull market is over, but I think the opposite is true.  Sure, we can always go lower, but gold has not retraced the Minor degree  “ABC” crash that took place in 2016. Complete retracement will not be confirmed until gold exceeds that $1375 price level again. $1375 has been my short term price target, but ultimately gold should go much higher.

When stocks roar back up, then gold can always be in the position to go the opposite way, as they can have an inverse relationship. The way gold declined this June sure shows that stock mania is still alive.  I believe gold has shown us an “ABC” decline which could have ended already.

It could still take gold the rest of the week  to confirm a bottom, but if a change of direction is due, then gold can make some pretty wild moves in both directions, before the return of its bullish phase.

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Gold Intraday Crash Review: When Will It End?

For close to 3 days gold has been on a steady decline which I believe is just a correction in a bigger bull market still to come. One more small downside wave may still happen, which may take by early next week to clear up.   We are also coming to another potential right shoulder with the head peaking on the 6th of June.  Gold has come back down very close to the previous bull market correction bottom, so this looks an ideal time to turn as well. 

At $1295 gold ran into resistance which also produced another H&S pattern. If the bullish phase is alive, then this $1295 barrier will get trashed and left in the dust. Preaferly, the gold dust variety.  

The chances are good that in late 2015 gold landed on a 4th wave bottom but in Intermediate degree. This does not mean a super duper 5th wave extension,  as we already have wave 3 as the extended wave.   It would be something if gold soared to just $1929, just barley passing old record highs, before it crashed once again. That will not happen anytime soon, as we have a long way to go before it can get confirmed. 

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Gold Intraday Correction Review

The gold correction has just spiked to the downside this morning, and has now started to rally again.  This correction looks a bit small, or should I say it has dished out very little pain for the gold bulls riding this bumpy bandwagon. 

This decline started as a diagonal with the start of one little zigzag, but the last wave today could still be part of the 5th wave. In other words, we may have just hit the “A’ wave today. How choppy the next rally will be,  or how lethargic it may act, could tell us that a “B” wave is in progress. 

The recent gold bottom is far away from any previous bull market correction, as $1260 would be a better base to bounce from.  With potential extensions always in play,  this correction could just keep right on going up, explaining a shorter physical correction. 

Long term I’m bullish until all major contrarian indicators give me a clue that gold and gold stocks are massively over bought.  Besides that, Steven Jon Kaplan will have sold is gold stock positions long before that. He gives no notice, except to his subscribers, but it will be pretty hard to hide just the same.   

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Gold Intraday Bull Run Review

Trend lines are some of the most abused technical tools, as most of the time we don’t need to be rocket scientists to see show a trend that the majority already see. I try to use trend lines as sparingly as possible, but when I do use them, I draw them in  parallel to each other. In this case I use the bottom trend line as my base, with the top still being a bit short of touching. 

At this time my wave count sure looks like a diagonal, as many waves started to overlap on this potential 5th wave. This is one time I would love to be wrong, as this could all extend virtually ignoring any trend lines that I may have. Keeping most trend lines in parallel avoids the cheating that goes on, forcing us to believe impulse waves where there are no impulse waves.

The 2007-2009 crash is a prime example, how easy it is to force a 5 wave pattern, into something that should have been drawn as a megaphone. 

All this is very positive for gold, even though we could be heading for a correction. Any correction can be so violent that it will be over before you have a chance to click your way out. 

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Gold Last Week Intraday Bullish Review

Since the bottom on May 9th gold has reversed from a potential wave 2 bottom in Minute degree. Gold has now soared, but a change of pattern took place on the 18th of May.  After that date the patterns started to overlap each other and zigzags started to show up. 

The best way this can be explained is that we are in a diagonal 5th wave, with more still to come.   I started this entire count with the 3 smallest degree levels and Micro degree wave 1 being the start. Micro degree is the 13th degree level that they use in the EWP book.   When I use up all the degree levels, then this gives me a clue I may have to up my degree level by one degree. 

Eventually we need to complete 5 waves up in Minuette degree, just to get us to wave 3 in Minute degree.  I think gold would have to crush that $1375 price level, before wave 3 in Minute degree dares to show itself. 

Waves changing sizes, is pretty normal as waves alternate using the size change trick, to confuse us. Patterns in a zigzag always alternate between the A5 and the C5 waves. 

Since we are in a potential wave 3 in Minor degree with a 1-2, 1-2 count already completed, then gold should at least give us a wave 3 extension. 

We also have a great looking inverse H&S pattern which had its base at the $1270 price level.  I’m sure gold will continue to throw curve balls at us, but the end of this bull market is not one of them. 

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