This is the 90-minute intraday chart, with the bearish phase ending in August 2018. Since then gold is doing what a bullish market is supposed to be doing as 5 waves seemed to be forming. I may have to adjust the degree level later on, but for now, I will start with 5 waves up in Minute degree, with a starting 1-2, 1-2 wave count. Gold could turn into diagonal waves, just as easily, which only time can confirm in the next few weeks.
Last week of a quarter, after which gold could soar much further. Technically speaking, gold should form 5 waves up in Minor degree, that will eventually push gold way over $1375 again. $1375 is the key price that gold has to retrace because that is the location of an Intermediate degree top.
I’m looking for a Primary “B” wave top, so the Intermediate degree position eventually has to get retraced. The only way gold will keep going up is if the US dollar keeps up its decline. Investors love that $1200 price level, and sooner or later, gold will get above that number and not get hit again for some time.
At this time I have a gold price window bull market peak, between $1700-$1900. Compare that to GDX, and GDX could hit between $45-$65.
The US dollar already took 14 months for its A5 wave decline with a 6-month counter-rally. If zigzags are supposed to be even, then another 14-month decline would be an initial time target of November 2019, as a potential peak.
At this time gold may work as a safe-haven asset class, but long-term every myth that you know about gold will be proven false. Gold will never protect you from deflation, and the only way gold will protect you against inflation is when the price of gold gets crushed. Banks are buying gold this year, but back in 1998, they were selling gold.
The big thing that readers of this blog must be confident about, and that is what that 2011 peak in gold represents!
Before you think that gold is just in an ordinary bull market again, then you should do your homework in what a mania is! Gold runs on a 30-year cycle from one mania peak to the next, so the next mania is not going to peak until 2041. This would be Supercycle degree wave 3 in commodaties.
One thing I’m very certain on, that at the peak of this bullish run, gold will give bullion holders a chance to unload or they will suffer the consequences when gold crashes between $500-$350! Deflation is coming in the next three years, and gold will, “Never” protect you from this deflation.
Boomers are retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day for the next 19 years! What do you think they will do with their investments? All those boomers will be permanent sellers of real-estate.
It’s not just gold, but the entire commodities world will get hit with deflation by 2022-2023
This is what the COT report on gold looks like. This does not instill any great confidence that a super gold bull is coming when their stats are so flat and even. Oh, I’m sure this picture will change, until we can see some extreme readings again. When the top speculators move to the bottom then we know that the speculators are in a bull trap, and it would be time to short gold again.