Tag Archives: Elliott Wave US Dollar

US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Phase Update.

It’s obvious that we see the US dollar in a bullish phase. Technically, it would be called a bear market rally if we believe that more downside is still to come.

Otherwise, we just assume that the US dollar bear market is over and the great USD bull market will resume. The horizontal line connects at least 7 points, which can give the US dollar rally reason to pause or even run out of power!  I will be looking for a wave 2 top in Minor degree with the trend line being well within the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  Any wave 2 rally is not limited by any means to stop dead at the trend line above as %60-%70 percent rallies can and do take place. In short, the general guideline for previous 4th wave reversal might not mean anything.

Fighting against the bigger trend can take more time than normal, so we have to have patience as I believe that the US dollar still has a huge bear market to show us. This USD rally is keeping a lid on gold and silver prices and it could still force a temporary drop in the price of gold and gold stocks.

The Euro is also crashing, and our CAD seems to want to take a rest from getting beat up.  US Dollar COT reports do not show that both types of traders are in radical positions which gives the US dollar a bit of flexibility how high it can go.

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US Dollar Bullish Spike Review

I’m working this rally as a Minor degree correction, which is not finished just yet, but this USD rally  has more to go, as another wave 3-4 should happen.

We had several gaps open up on the way down, so I was pretty confident that the US dollar still had to rally and close those 2 gaps. Now on the way up, a huge gap open up, which will get closed in the future. We know that the USD will eventually decline again, and close this gap completely.

Gold and silver both took hits as well, while oil soared this morning in a massive bullish move at the intraday scale.  I have full confidence that the US dollar is not going to the moon, but this rally could remain bullish in the shorter term.

I usually do not post on Mondays that much as most of the real action happens during the rest of the week.  The full moon is still about 5 trading sessions away so we will find out with the Sunday session if any reversal may happen.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Update

The decline of the US dollar has been in progress just under 13 months and I’m sure there is more to go, but short term radical moves can kill any wave count pretty quick.  The 4th wave peak in Intermediate degree is still holding, and I see no short term moves that will dislodge it. This blog is all about locating, and confirming all 5 waves in Cycle degree, and EW5  is the only blog I know of that is doing this. I say this so all new readers fully understand that  smaller degree wave counting must come before all the big wave counts can be justified or even confirmed. This also applies to currencies like the US dollar.

At this time I don’t think we are in any Minor degree just yet as the switch would have to counter rally much further. In this case the USD could be finishing a Minuette degree 4th wave,  which could be followed by a 5th wave extension. International trade wars are in progress, but I think it’s more about Cyber Wars that all major nations are conducting. The US dollar is caught in the cross hairs as it seems that the USA infrastructure is also a prime target for these attacks.

We can get all sorts of rallies, but none of them will charge back into a bull market., at least until all the commercials are net long by a very wide margin.

We also have to be prepared that the US dollar can soar when stocks make a huge counter rally. COT reports come out on Fridays and if there is a radical change I will talk about it.

The Euro could also see a pop so when the US dollar moves many other currencies will also react.

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Quick US Dollar Intraday Update

This is just a quick update as this potential “C” wave could be running out of steam. I would still like to see the USD spike to a new higher high, but that has  a 50/50 chance of happening. 50/50 odds does nothing for me as I want better odds than just flipping any coin for heads or tails.

I will never call this type of a move as a “Truncation” because they can work as running patterns very well. Even any zigzag can come up short, so it’s not like it can never happen. Next week could destroy the top trend line, but otherwise the US dollar should  resume its crash course.

Sure, there will still be many counter rallies, but the only real counter rally is the one that sends the USD back into a multi year bull market. That will not happen until the US dollar bears become trapped again, much like they were in late 2008.  This time it won’t take 8 years or so, but should only last 3 years at best.

The US dollar index is being drawn down towards solar cycle #25, much like the USD was pulled down to the solar cycle #24.  From this 2008 low the US dollar exploded right along with solar cycle #24, so I expect a US Dollar bull market after solar cycle #25 as well.

There is a huge USD wedge that will be finished in a few years, and these wedges can produce powerful bull markets. The VIX is a prime example of what happens when a wedge comes to an end. 1937 to 1942 also produced a wedge, and that wedge spawned a multi decade bull market.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The US dollar roared to an early March top, then proceeded with a bearish phase that sure can fit into a flat. By about the 27th this correction was over and a bullish phase started which is still in progress.  In this case I would love to see the US dollar  soar and completely retrace the top, as that is what corrections are supposed to do.

From my perspective the US dollar bear market will resume until my contrarian indicators start to tell me otherwise.  The commercials are still net short the US dollar, but the speculators are getting close to a 1:1 net short/long ratio. I don’t want to see an even ratio, but I would like to see the speculators become extremely net short before I turn bullish on the US dollar.

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US Dollar Intraday Gyrations Update

The US dollar had made the small move I was expecting, but I don’t think it’s over just yet. The US dollar could plunge back down to the 88.800 price level, then make another move to the upside which could be the end of a wave two rally in Minor degree. This  could still take all of March to finish off, but I’m sure the Fed announcement this coming week, will create some wild moves in both directions.

The speculators are very close to being even with their positions, so they will have to shift to a major net short position when the US dollar hits another major bottom.

The commercials made all the right moves last week and they are still in a net short position by about a 3:1 ratio. Once this corrective counter rally has played out, then this should also have a positive effect on gold.

Any Fed policy will not push the US dollar into a real bull market, no matter how many analysts may think that it can happen. This entire US dollar decline can take until the end of solar cycle #24, which is still a few years away. Every major science site that tracks the sun will be recording and reporting this event, so there will be no excuses that we didn’t see solar cycle #25 coming!

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Review


This year the US dollar is having problems getting past this 88-89 price level, which the bottom trend line highlights. The herd of conventional analysts is just starting to suspect that the US dollar is in a bear market. This is far too late, to be any use to the futures traders that know how to bet up or down. (Take long or short positions)

Conventional indicators in the highly leveraged commodities world doesn’t work, because if they did the majority would always be the winners. The fact is the majority can never win because it is mathematically impossible to do so.

The US dollar bull market that started in late 2008 displayed a choppy bull market that happens in false or bear market rallies. In a bear market rally, the market eventually must retrace its “entire” bullish move, which would not be completed until the US dollar travels below the 70 price level. This  would take a few more years or until solar cycle #25 starts up.

I want to see the US dollar slice through that bottom trend line, as we still don’t have a great looking spike. The US dollar has already entered the price territory of the 2009 and 2010 peaks, which effectively  kills any idea that a perfect impulse was in progress.

Still there is no real bottom that can offer price support to the US dollar  at this time. Every time analysts are looking for support, you have to ask, “support for what”?  Support for a huge US dollar bull market to suddenly materialize?  From my perspective, some key contrarian indicators have to be in place before the US dollar suddenly leaps into a bull market. None of those conditions exist just yet so until they do, the US dollar is doomed to decline even more.

It was a real challenge to call the 2008 bottom as we were far too early, but finally the US dollar started to soar, and our CAD and  Euro started to implode. When we constantly read about the bearish US dollar, chances are good that a strong reversal is being set-up.

Short term we could still see some gyrations, but long term the US dollar is still doomed to go lower.

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US Dollar: Resuming it’s Bearish Trend?

The US dollar has been in a bearish mood lately, but it can still create another corrective pattern as well. 89 is just one rounded Fibonacci  numbers I use, and the US dollar has turned around that number before. Commercial traders are still net short, so chances of jumping into a huge USD bullish phase are low on my list. Wild counter rallies do happen and they can’t always be spotted before they happen.

Any decline in the US dollar for “any” fundamental reasoning, will help keep the bullish pressure on gold.  At least until the entire US dollar bearish move has completed. There are no contrarian indicators showing up,  that say we are at the bottom of a US dollar bear market.  We might get another “C” wave attack, that can force another leg up with the US dollar, but then I would bet that the commercial traders positions would also have shifted dramatically.

In the last few days, the declining  pattern has been a diagonal pattern, which could run out of steam in the short term.

This could be very slow going as well, so I will not report every little wave made with the US dollar cash index. Futures are leveraged asset classes which produce very wild moves. Futures are played in both directions creating these wild swings, which Bitcoin traders can’t really do. The lack of  short players in Bitcoin reduces the wild moves, otherwise the Bitcoin waves would display insane moves in both directions.

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US Dollar Bear Market Returns?

The general direction of the US dollar is still down. It’s declining in a choppy fashion so we could be looking at a 5th wave diagonal decline.  The Euro jumped as the USD declined, but the Euro is a better looking rally. It’s not a beauty contest, but a war between bulls and bears.  Right now the bears seemed to be winning as the USD slowly keeps  grinding down.

The commercials switched to a net short position, so this helps in knowing that a super bull will not suddenly possess the US dollar holders.  I think the US dollar still has to fall well below that 88.200 price level, but it must also be finishing the big Minute degree decline.  Price alone will never give you the basis of a major reversal, but patterns do. Yes, I use price, but it’s always associated with the pattern I may be working. Price forecasts by the experts sure didn’t help to forecast the end of the US dollar bull market, so why should they know when the US dollar bear market is going to end?  The experts never saw the end of the 2008 US dollar bear market so why should they this time around?

Nobody was expecting a media trade war to be conducted at record peaks of the stock markets, but they did.  The big question is if the US dollar bull market that started in 2008 was actually a fake bull market. Bear market rallies always produce total retracements which in the US dollar case, would be well below the 70 price level. It will be a tough call once this US dollar 5 wave sequence is done, as a strong US dollar rally would have to happen.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

This US dollar index rally hit a brick wall on the 1st of March right on the same day we had the full moon. Last week the commercial traders were still in a net short position so the odds of a huge bullish move are reduced dramatically. A small set of 5 waves heading down, has already formed, but this should build into bigger counter rallies as the US dollar adds on another set of 5 waves in Subminuette degree.  What type of 5 wave sets is not clear, but any 5th wave can turn into diagonal waves.

If what we see has been a bearish rally, then the US dollar price level of 88.300 “must” get hit or breached. No US dollar triple bottom will hold once we get closer to that bottom trend line.

With president Trump conducting a trade war with new tariffs on steel and aluminium, should not be a surprise, as he made it pretty clear to all during his election campaigns what he was going to do. The last time a president conducted a trade war was with the June 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The Smoot-Hawley Act came into existence a month after the 1930 “B” wave top in Cycle degree. 4-5 months for a Cycle degree bear market rally in stocks sure does not fit the timeline length but it fits sequentially very well.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Review

Since the January bottom the US dollar roared up in a zigzag fashion and then plunged down with what looks like a set of 5 waves down. I have an extra bounce during the early part of February which can also work as part of a diagonal. Sooner or later the US dollar should complete any bullish moves, but can still frustrate us to no end,  in the short term.

Investors love to see the US dollar soar with the stock markets, as it seems that investors are still infected with the “Stock Mania Virus”.  Stocks and the US dollar, soaring, caused gold to crash this afternoon.  We may see more upside with the USD but eventually it will resume its bearish trend.  We could still more upside, but last weeks COT report, the commercial traders are net short the USD.

US dollar investors have to get to a stage where they are extremely bearish towards the US dollar, and the commercial traders are piled in with huge net long positions.  Short term the USD bull may still dominate, but long term I’m bearish on the US dollar. (2-3 years)

I’m sure that once solar cycle #25 starts, the US dollar can turn and soar once again.

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US Dollar 1980-2018 Update

 

Way back in 1980 the US dollar bottomed and then soared in an insane vertical move which I think ended with a wave 3 in Cycle degree. We can say that Regan was responsible for that rocket move. 1980 was also the peak of solar cycle #21, so the US dollar repelled up from  the sc#21 peak.

Then from the 1996 sc#22 bottom, the US dollar did the opposite thing and soared again until the peak of sc#23 in 2000. From this sc#23 peak the US dollar repelled in a big move south that didn’t end until sc#23 bottomed in late 2008! For about 8 years the US dollar rallied with the run up of sc#24, but then the USD also repelled from the SC#24 top in 2014.Now the US dollar is heading south as sc#24 is also heading south.

By 2020 or so sc#24 will end and then we start up in sc#25. SC#25 could be a huge bullish setup for the US dollar. The big thing is that the US dollar, solar cycle action, always seems to alternate. This alternation action doesn’t happen in the main stock indices, as the solar cycle bottoms can produce real wild bull markets. These bull markets can also be maintained right through the entire solar cycle decline which it has done on this sc#24 decline. A few of my contrarian indicators also have to be lined up, when it’s the right time.

We do have a few years time before extreme indicators show themselves. The majority must hate the US dollar first, but right now you are lucky if the crowd even suspects that a US dollar bear market is in progress. Conventional meanings of bear markets and bull market corrections, mean very little to me as commodities, mainly run on leveraged fear. Fear has nothing to do with logical! A 61% crash can just be a wave 2 correction, and many 4th waves can see a 40% drop. Both moves would still be a bull market correction from an Elliott Wave perspective.

I also see a potential huge wedge being setup so that sure could send the US dollar soaring as well. This will not happen next week or even next year, but looking a few years ahead should be our constant focus.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash And Rally Update!

The US dollar has resumed its downward path recently while the Euro charged up. This is the great inverse relationship that also influences the price of gold in US dollar terms. As long as the US dollar remains bearish over all, the gold price should keep on benefiting.  It also works the other way, when the US Dollar is set to rally, then it usually crushes the price of gold as well.

The gold price got crushed in 2011 as stocks took off  and the US dollar charged up during that time.  The US Dollar hit another record low this morning  before it reversed and charged back up  ending with another small spike to the upside.

To finish the 5th wave down I need 5 waves down in Minuette. Since it’s a 5th wave decline, this 5th wave can extend dramatically so there still could be some downside left in the short term.  Sooner or later we  may end at a wave 1 in Minor degree and then a strong US dollar rally should happen.  It could be a slow move or a violent wave 2 counter rally, but in the long run the US dollar should resume its bearish trend.

A rally does not make a bull market, but a rally big enough sure can fool the crowd. The easiest crowd to fool are the speculators as they always get themselves into a trap. Recognizing that a trap has formed or is forming, allows us to get out of or into positions,  that otherwise very few people can ever execute.

In order for the US Dollar to turn back into a real bull market, we need the commercials to switch into an extremely skewed net long position. They are net long already, but not nearly enough for a super bull to materialize. The bearish phase can still last until the end of the month, so until I see all 5 waves down being completed, this bearish phase is still active.

If we are approaching a higher degree wave 1, we could get some very choppy declining patterns indicating that diagonal waves are starting to dominate again.

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US Dollar Bullish Cycle Still In Progress.

There still is a threat of the US dollar to head a bit higher as sideways movements can’t be trusted for very long. We could add on a wild little spike to the upside, which can always produce fantastic reversals. From my perspective, this is a 3-3-5 move which means its an inverted flat and a fake.

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US Dollar Intraday Rally Update.

The carnage in the stock market seems to have done little to the US dollar as it just kept right on its bullish path since early February.

The US dollar rally is a bearish rally, which could still fill a wave 4 rally a bit more, to match the wave two rally that this 4th wave is part of.

Everybody on the planet has to hate the US dollar before its bearish phase will come to an end. In the long run the US dollar decline could end at a wave 1 bottom in Minor degree after which another US dollar freefall trend should happen. It would be great if this US dollar rally were to finish later this week, but that is a best guess scenario at this time.

The commercial traders are net long the US dollar, but not by any extreme ratio, so they still have very little power behind them.c

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Update

The US dollar has been in a bearish phase for over a year now. Calling it a bearish phase may not be right as that would suggest that the US dollar is still in a bull market.  If the entire US dollar bull market (2008-2016) was a big bear market rally then the US dollar has a very good chance of being “completely” retraced. This would mean that the 70 price target would eventually get hit again. Even lower would not hurt any longer term wave counts I presently have.

The problem is the US dollar will never go down in a straight line, and we wouldn’t want it to. It will give all the wave analyst a real hard time, and rightly so as they think creating a bunch of simple “ABC” patterns is wave counting. The EWP has turned into a mindless trade setup tool which any student can produce after a year or so. Any kid with a ruler can show you a trend line which is one of the most abuse   technical indicators used today.

I love working on the big waves and have worked on the US wave count for close to 20 years. Sure, I got many things wrong, but I’m a tenacious kind a guy and don’t give up that easily.

When the US dollar was still pointing up, I was forecasting for it to hit the 89 price level, where it sits today. We could still be in a Minuette degree 4th wave that still has to play out, but then we could be faced with a wave 2 counter rally. This wave 2 counter rally  could be a fast and furious surprise move that the majority of US dollar analysts will not see.

In late 2016 the planet was bullish on the US dollar as all the experts had very bullish US dollar wave counts. Even now the US dollar commercial traders are increasing their net long USD positions, which still would need to increase by a large margin. The commercials in the Euro and our Canadian dollar are all in net short positions, so this could present some problems at one point in time.

The majority of analysts tells us what the speculators as doing, which is called managed money. The speculators are always the trend chasers, which always gets them into a trap.  A little more sideways or up,  US dollar price action would round off our present rally much better, as the US dollar should still fall below 87. At the 87 price level,  the US dollar is coming up to the bullish trend line, that could give the US dollar some stiff resistance in the short term.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

Trump Expresses Support For Strong U.S. Dollar 2018.01.25 (en)

Trump Supports the US Dollar are the recent reasons why the US dollar has rallied. Does that mean the US dollar crash is going to stop and miraculously turn into a bull market?  No, not on this planet! The only way that a true bull market can form is if the US dollar has completed an “ABC” crash already. The US dollar was due to rally already and the only question is how high?

The US dollar doesn’t even have to go very high as it can go sideways for weeks, before another leg down might happen. There is a very good chance that another 4th wave bullish phase is in progress in Minuette degree.  We need this impending wave 3-4 rally to play out and then we may be getting close to a potential wave 1 in Minor degree.

Presidents can try and jawbone the US dollar up, but debt holders like China and Russia can throw a monkey wrench into that plan anytime they want.  I think we still may have 3-5 weeks left, before we can expect a Minor degree wave 2 counter rally. The US dollar is just a bit below the Fibonacci number of 89 where it can build a base, with many very short 5th waves.

In Greenspand days analysts watched the size of his suitcase to try and figure out how much paper work was in it about a rate change. Next month we will get a new Fed and even then, can a single man turn 100’s of trillion dollars of declining value to increase in value?

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bear Market Update

As the US dollar crashes the Euro rallies. It seems the stock market is also ignoring the crashing US dollar, but for how much longer, I’m not sure.  The US dollar has definitely added some extra push in the price of gold, but that can also kill the price of gold when the US dollar decline reverses.

At the very top I have dropped down one degree and temporarily trashed my “D” wave top in Primary degree. It’s not that it’s thrown out completely, it just goes back into inventory for now.  I use 5 of the simple patterns over and over which we can be adapted for any degree that I may be working on. Complex wave structures are just combinations of simple patterns, which can confound us to no end, especially if we don’t know where we are counting from.

I have always mentioned that the US dollar bull market could just be a big bear market rally, which means 100% retracement must eventually happen. In order for any wave 4 top in Intermediate degree to be confirmed we must have 5 waves down in Minor degree.  The difference between a potential “E” wave decline and  5 waves in Minor degree is the 4th wave.  Any “ABC” decline  can look just like a “1,2,3” decline for most of the time, until wave “C” or wave “3” has ended.

We still have time left before we get close to a wave 1 in Minor degree, because a 5th wave can extend dramatically. The commercials are still net short but that would have to change to a net long position once we get closer to any wave 1 in Minor degree.

95 was the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so any US dollar Minor degree wave 2 rally can charge back up into this price range. We still have 2 sets of 4th waves that need to play out, so until that happens, there is no sense in turning bullish on the US dollar too early.

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US Dollar Intraday Bear Market Update

For the last two months the US dollar is on a slide that sure looks like a pretty impulse wave structure at this time. Once 5 waves are completed, then a 3 wave counter rally specific to the degree I’m working on, is supposed to happen. The idea that we could be in another triangle in a 4th wave position doesn’t fit the way I like it too, so we could still see a counter rally much bigger that what I have right now.

The top trend line is only there to show a future counter rally resistance rally, as any counter rally can come back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This would give us a 96.200 retracement price level. At this point I’m working from a wave 2 base which I may change to a 4th wave base, at some point in the future.

I would have to use the daily chart and take another look, so short term this is a bit fuzzy. When parts of the intraday charts are fuzzy, then I switch to daily and weekly charts to get another perspective. This small rally can still surprise us if it’s not finished yet. The US dollar will not switch back to its big bullish phase until the majority of the expert talking heads, are on board the bear wagon, and have developed a consensus opinion.  That situation is still a long way away at this time.

At the extremes the markets will always do the opposite of what fundamentals suggest. Just like analysts paint us a rosy picture at the top, the opposite happens at major bottoms, when they paint us a very bleak, or pessimistic picture. The more pessimistic, the bigger the counter rally is my basic  guideline.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

The US dollar keeps on crashing, and it should continue for the foreseeable future.  Surprise rallies will be part of the landscape, but when we are in a big bear market then any rally will only be a temporary thing.  Gold has responded to the USD crash like it has done many times before and has broken well below the 91 price level, that I have talked about in my updates.

I have another couple of downside targets that I would like to see get retraced. One of them is the 89 price level with these futures charts, another price level that should get hit will be at about the 80 range. A falling US dollar is basically inflation rearing its ugly head, but that is what politicians have wanted for many years, with their 2% inflation rate.

Buying gold after it has already soared does not protect us from inflationary pressures, but this is what gold analysts keep telling us we should do.

They may just be starting to recognize the fact that the US dollar could be in a bear market, which makes them pretty slow in recognizing any trend reversals. When you are watching the evening news and two or 3 different talking heads mention how the US dollar is crashing, then chances are good the US dollar will reverse and soar.

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US Dollar Intraday Bear Market Update

The US dollar has made some violent moves lately. One minute it can be a calm decline and the next thing you know it wakes up and swings violently in both directions. Any asset class that is related to commodities has some serious leverage to it. I consider all currencies as a commodity as well. The majority could be just waking up to the fact that the US dollar is in a bear market, which is usually the time when downside consensus forecasts start coming out. This news is a little harder to find right now, but on major turnings, there will be no doubt in how the public will be feeling.

I dropped my degree level down by one degree, which makes the wave action seem more sensitive, which can also get us out of a trap. The degree level is so small that I’m scraping the very bottom of the list.

Any US dollar bear market is not over until more bears jump on this bandwagon going south. On the 10th a violent move up could also be part of a diagonal which contains mostly zigzags. We are presently on a very small move up, but could see more upside before it’s finished. It’s the US dollar decline which is the main driver of the gold price, but other times the inverse correlation is impossible to see for short periods of time.

We will have to wait until next week before we can find out how much more downside in the USD we’re still going to get. We can get a strong counter rally with the US dollar at any time, but it doesn’t mean the bear market is over.

Short term we could see some wild bullish moves, but in the bigger scope of things I’m still very bearish.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update

After a great US dollar crash or swan dive, it has now recovered and started to soar with the stock markets again. This rally is not the resumption of the big US dollar bull market, but just a small bearish rally. We will get these small counters rallies all the time, but the trick is not to get fooled by any single rally, even if it travels further than anticipated.

Long term this US dollar can retrace its entire bullish phase, which started in early 2008. The US dollar rally started well before the stock market bottomed in early 2008.  A few places where my parallel lines get sliced in two, is not that big of a deal from my perspective. Trend lines are abused by most technical analysts, as it’s not rocket science to see a trend line. Even a kid with a ruler can see the trend lines without any instructions.  A little more upside can happen, but the reversal should push the US dollar to another record low.

Gold has also reacted down with this US dollar rally, so if gold is still set to soar, then the US dollar is still set to crash and burn. As usual the majority can never take advantage of these cycles, as they don’t have the patience to ride out any corrections.  Emotional traders charge through most of the markets, chasing anything that moves up or down, but the seasoned contrarians get a big laugh out of these market antics. Monkey See! Monkey Do! Seems to be the herd mentality at any given time.

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US Dollar Crash Update

Media attention about the crashing US dollar has started to gather attention, when the US dollar spiked to the downside. How much short term downside, there is still to come, is unknown, but the bigger bearish trend is still clear. The US dollar is in a much bigger bear market than what anyone expects to happen at this time. The US dollar will not turn on some mythical price bottom and carry on to new record highs, as  it takes much more than just price to stop any trend.

Sure, short term bullish moves will happen, but not until the entire world hates the US dollar and loves gold, can the US dollar be ready for another new bull market. Yes, we may have some problems figuring out this potential wave 1-2 in Minor degree, as we still have a small window for the US dollar to turn north and produce a “C” wave bullish run.

Also the commercial traders  are back to being net short, but they are starting to add to their long positions. Short term, that may produce a US dollar rally, and slow gold down a bit as well.

The US dollar can backfire and turn into a “C” wave bullish phase. If and when that happens, then we know the top trend line will get sliced in two. The trend line that touches more peaks or dips is the main trend line, and bigger degree levels will wander far outside this trend line.

Maybe raising of the minimum wage this year is causing the US dollar to crash, and not some secret evil currency manipulators.

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US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

The US dollar bearish phase has seemed to kick in again, and is now approaching a classic downside breakout situation at the 92.500 price level.  As bearish as that may be the 90.600 price level could offer the US dollar bears another big surprise.  Ultimately, we want to see the US dollar crash below the wave 1 in Minor degree as that is just one way the wave count can get confirmed.

I have not had to change my potential “D” wave top in Primary degree at this time, so there is lots of room for the US dollar to keep moving down, for the next several years or so. Of course, those pesky counters rallies always get in the way, which many think can be the start of the next big bullish phase. Dollar bulls start to throw in the towel, only surrendering to the bears, after most counter rallies start to fail.

In the future the entire mainstream media will turn bearish towards the US dollar, and gold analysts will be urging you to buy into the gold bull market, to protect yourself against the ravages of inflation. The sad fact is, that this is far too late in the inflation cycle, when gold will do little to protect you.

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US Dollar Intraday Price Action Review

In Just a few short weeks the US dollar will be starting its second year in a bear market. The mass media still hasn’t caught on, as they think that the US dollar is still in a bull market. As much as some of these counter rallies look like the return of the “Bull”, they are giving the US dollar bulls false hope. Gold’s steady bullish moves so far, helps to confirm this.

The bullish move that started in September of 2017 works as a diagonal move, and since it took longer to play out, I have to look at it from a Minor degree perspective.  The US dollar may still seem a bit sluggish heading down, but I’m sure the US dollar will still have some, “Bad hair days”.

Very bearish stock action this morning helps to make my case, that the bearish action of the US dollar will continue.  When the headlines tell us to get out of the US dollar, and gold is finishing a vertical move, we can expect a reversal of the US dollar, stock, and gold relationship. The entire US dollar bullish phase that started back in 2008, could have been a big bear market rally, and the only way for that to get confirmed, is when the US dollar breaks below the 2008 lows.

Short term we may still see some US dollar bullish action, but longer term the US dollar is in a big bearish phase.

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update With “Fedcoin” Commentary!

The US dollar has now traveled a bit higher than I would like to see. After some more daily chart reviewing, we could have finished a “B” wave bottom in a wave 1-2 pattern.  Even without the US dollar heading much higher we could already have reached a wave 2 top in Minor degree.  That gap down below will get filled as the US dollar is still in a bear market. 

The majority has not clued into the fact that the US dollar has been in a bear market already.  Bull markets end when the majority of experts are in consensus, saying that the bull market will “never” end. The exact same thing happened in reverse with the 2008 USD bottom when a bull market was born. Until the experts have the consensus opinion that the USD is very bearish, then it will be time for the bear market to end.  This all may sound silly to the majority, but it’s the mainstay thinking that contrarians use. 

There is even talk about a “Fedcoin”, joining about 500 other ICOs in various stages of completion.  

Initial Coin Offering (ICO) Definition | Investopedia

 

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US Dollar Bullish Phase Update

In the US dollar bullish run that started in December is a pretty steep angle. We are also getting a double top, and as an added bonus, we have the possibility of a H&S pattern. If I was far more bullish, then chances are good that the H&S pattern will never hold. 

We also have a nice fat gap, still open below present prices, which will get closed in time. There is a 90% chance of any gap getting closed, but some of them could take years to close.  

All those Bitcoin owners who sell and convert into the US dollar will find that the US dollar is crashing. How long would it take to panic out of the US dollar, especially if the only asset class that will be going up, ends up being  gold and silver? 

In the big scope of things the impending “E”  wave decline in the US dollar, could take it to new record lows. When the headlines dominate with US dollar bad news, then we may be ready for another wild USD bullish phase. 

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US Dollar Intraday Rally Update

The US dollar has charged a bit higher than expected. Another zigzag rally could be in the process of completing, which I will use as a wave 1-2 in Minute degree.   There is also a huge open gap, below present prices, so this acts like a magnet and eventually it will draw prices down to it. 

With the stock market still acting very bullish, the US dollar could soar in a dramatic fashion.  We do have a questionable Minor degree 4th wave top which gives us a few more options,  than just a single counter rally 1-2 wave. 

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Quick US Dollar Update

While many experts have still not clued in that the US dollar bull market ended 11 months ago. Bull markets end under extreme bullish conditions, like the USD did in 2016, while bear markets finish under extreme bearish conditions. (2008)   This has all been clearly documented, so it is nothing new. It happens over and over yet the majority can never take advantage of this, as an emotional herd has no memory.  They don’t learn from what has happened in previous turnings, and even then it is hard to believe that a bull market can start in the depths of a glut!

Those that think the US dollar is still in a bull market, are always looking for the real support price level. Good luck with that as in a bear market, there are no  permanent support prices. 

This rally, which can fit a small triangle should head to a new record low, but it may take several weeks or so to get there.  In a panic the USD can slice through my top trend line, and then reverse. Slicing through the bottom trend line will take a little longer. 

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December, 1, 2017 US Dollar Bear Market Rally Update

It’s a new month and I looked at this pattern from a diagonal perspective. That mid month bearish rally fits well as just another “B” wave, followed by a set of little waves to the November 27th bottom.   Since the US dollar can still be in a potential 4th wave rally, we may see the US dollars still thrash around, before another leg down develops. 

Many analysts do not track the US dollar as closely as we do with the stock markets, so we can get blindsided when the USD makes a crazy bullish move.   Is the US dollar slumping because of Bitcoin, we really don’t know, but I’m sure when the new Fedcoin comes out, the US dollar will play a huge role in it.  Any new Fedcoin will send Bitcoin into the digital graveyard, as it is not wise to think that the US government will allow you to make millions trading Bitcoins without paying any capital gains tax. 

For now this bullish US dollar rally has to end adding on another leg to the downside. Every rally with the US dollar can be interpreted, as the lift off to the continuation of the US dollar bull market. That’s not going to happen until the US dollar shows us, that a clear 3 waves crash has occurred, and the news is predominantly bearish.

All I have,  is 5 wave sequences during the entire 2017 decline, with any 5th wave producing overlapping wave structures.  At this time any “D” wave in Primary degree is still valid for the 2017 top. This means that the US dollar can eventually crash below the 70 price level and that 2008 low.  

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