US Dollar Weekly Chart Review

Regardless of all the bad news that is coming out the USD seems to be making bullish progress but in a very choppy way. This is a sign of a diagonal wave structure, so I will be looking for zigzags to keep showing up. This happens in 5th waves but wave 1-2 is ahead of us and we do have some time left.

Will it take all of October or more bad news about the impeachment of President Trump?

Commercials are net short by a wide margin so a bullish wave count has a battle all the way.

The thing is that the 2008 bottom was a “Major” bottom and was the bottom of wave 4 in Cycle degree. That means we should be in a 5 wave sequence bull market in Primary degree.

Gold bugs need a major USD decline to make them happy, but I think that’s not going to happen soon.

Eventually, the USD has to move above the 103.802 price level but that’s when some serious resistance also comes into effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hits: 5

US Dollar: Still Heading North

This could be the first chart where I show that we could be in a Primary degree run already.  Trying different degree levels is important as the USD could make a swan dive trashing the bottom trend line.

Turning real bearish too early doesn’t work as this choppy trend could just frustrate us to no end. The gold bulls sure would get a kick if the USD suddenly imploded, and the EURO started to soar again.

2008 was a major bottom for the US dollar and I think it’s bullish run is far from over, corrections notwithstanding.

The US dollar has very good solar cycle connections as the 2011 and 2014 lows match the two peaks of solar cycle 24. Even the 2008 USD bottom matches solar cycle 24 so it is next to impossible to say that it was just a lucky coincidental occurrence.

When solar cycle 25 arrives will it send stocks and the US dollar soaring again? All the indicators on the planet will not work if we ignore the power of the sun and its 11-12-year cycles.  Talk of a recession is endless which can happen as one solar cycle ends and the next cycle starts.

From my perspective solar cycle, 25 will become the recession killer just like 2008-2009.

Hits: 9

US Dollar Crash And Rally Review

In my last USD posting, I described that the USD dollar could be in a diagonal 4th wave and sure enough, the USD seems to be heading up again. It won’t be a smooth ride for a 5th wave because this is a world filled with diagonal wave structures.

I would love to see the USD breakout to new record highs even by the slimmest of margins but “Time” will have the final word!

Just inverse the chart above and it will look like the Euro which should produce another record low.

Gold and the USD have both been bullish today so we could run into more situations like this in the future.

The commercials are net short by a wide margin which does not seem to slow the USD bullish phase down any,  at this time.

Hits: 12

US Dollar Intraday Gyrations Review

I may have to drop this wave count degree level down by one, and I also doubled the “Custom Bars” to 1000. During July I thought I would get a set of 5 waves but now even an extreme diagonal 4th wave is being pushed to the extreme.

Friday the USD dropped like a rock but at the same time we could end up with a huge open gap! The zigzag bullish run could be a bear rally and usually, any Elliott Wave bear market rally gets retraced by 100% or more.

In order for gold to keep soaring the USD has to backslide. Combine that with still horrible commercial hedger positions, we could see the USD twist and turn, up or down!

For now, the trend still seems down as some key support price levels could get trashed.

Hits: 13

US Dollar Intraday Rally Update

This bullish run started June 25 and is still going as I post.  Even though the USD can fit into a 5 wave sequence we can get a 5th wave extension that may still surprise us. Moves like this always affect the price of gold which crashed this morning as well. I bet if you searched analyst reports why the US dollar exploded they would all come up with a different set of fundamentals reasons. Even the majority of wave analysts always inject some fundamental reasoning into their wave counts but the biggest fundamental of human emotions they seem to ignore.

Mini panic buying or selling is an emotional thing and in this case, short sellers got caught in traps of their own making. There are no daily trading limits in commodities so moves can move dramatically without obvious counter-rallies.

US stocks and the gold price crashed together this morning which also happened during the 2008 crash.

Hits: 16

US Dollar Intraday Impending Rally?

In the last few months, the US dollar has made steep drops 3 times already giving gold the extra push to new highs to the $1411 price level.

The only way I can count this out is from a diagonal perspective.

Sometimes there is no obvious zigzag down the 5th wave which would bring a bottom on much sooner than we think.

I may have to knock my degree down one level, as this diagonal decline may be part of an expanded top.

I believe that the US dollar is in a corrective phase and sooner or later the USD bulls will return. On a daily chart, we have many previous 4th wave bottoms that will supply support.

Many think that the US dollar is in a bear market rally but I think the USD is in a much bigger bull market than what the majority think at this time.

Last week the commercials hedgers removed long positions and at the same time added to their short positions which I think was a bearish move. During the week this could all start to change again.

Hits: 9

US Dollar Daily Chart Review:

Since the 2018 bottom (wave 4) the US dollar has been in a bullish phase and at this point, I still can’t see a major trend reversal in the making.  With the entire world trying to destroy the US dollar it still looks like it wants to keep pushing higher.

Since the 2019 bottom, the US dollar has produced an overlapping pattern that frankly has been a real challenge to sort out.  2019 has turned into a diagonal nightmare because diagonal waves can be mistaken for a bearish rally it is easy to come up with a wave count where the US dollar is going to crash.

I’ve mentioned it many times but I think the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market that we can imagine and no amount of fundamental reasoning can change its direction until it is ready to do so. The real bottom with the US dollar was back in 2008 when the entire world thought the USD had died and was advised to get out of the USD and into gold.

All the gold bugs are eager to see the US dollar crash again and it may happen, as any bull market needs good healthy corrections to stay alive.

I’m sure my bullish wave counts are going against the US dollar bears and at one point the commercial hedgers shifted to a massive net short position that I thought would finish the US dollar bull market.

Last week the commercial hedgers made a very bullish move as they added 2597 contracts to their long side. Don’t get me wrong as the commercials are still net short by a large margin.

Our last bottom with the US dollar was about May 7, 2019, which could be a bottom for another leg up. Any bullish move should push the US dollar to a new record high even if it’s only by a very slim margin.

Commercials turned very bearish towards our CAD and gold last week, which also helps my bullish case.

Hits: 8

Quick Intraday US Dollar Update

For the last 6 weeks, the US dollar has seen some wild moves which also produces some spikes that don’t show up with a line type setting.  The US Dollar couldn’t stand up any longer and looks like another correction is playing out.

Still, the US dollar is not going to dive into a bear market pushing the price of gold much higher, at least not yet!

The trade war has been going on for a long time already so the USD could have imploded many times already, but so far it has refused to do so, except for corrections.

I will remain bullish on the USD but the commercial hedgers may not see it that way in tonight’s COT reports.

Hits: 10

US Dollar Intraday: Impending Correction?

This is just a quick update and may not last long enough before the digital paint even has a chance to dry.  There is a chance that a correction is still in progress and that the US dollar could make a deep decline this week.

Nothing but a 100% retracement would satisfy or help confirm the bearish wave count above. Any intraday decline of the USD could also send gold on a bullish move as fear attacks the stock bulls.  Any push to new US dollar record highs would send this wave count to the digital “Bone Yard” very quick.

I look for long spikes pointing down as they tend to be corrective “C” waves coming to an end.

 

Hits: 9

US Daily Chart Bull Market Update

In February 2018 the US dollar crash came to an end, which I believe to be the end of a correction in this ongoing bull market. The big US dollar bear market came to an end in 2008 when it exploded in price.

Many contrarians were warning us that the USD could turn very bullish as all the US dollar bears were in a massive bear trap.

2008 wasn’t just a temporary bottom it was a “Bear Mania” bottom.

I know there is no such thing, but I’m trying to make a strong point that “Manias” work both ways. 2008 was also a huge 23-year bear market bottom with the shape of a falling wedge.

Since then the USD has spawned a major bull market which could last decades but that will produce corrections that many believe will be the start of a new bear market.

On the daily chart above, the 2019 bullish US move has some wild moves in it that need more time to clear up. At this time I will count them as a diagonal wave structure.

I will not be a “Happy Wave Counting Camper” until the US dollar soars past the 103.650 price level, with 120 being the ultimate price target.

A month or so ago the commercial hedgers dumped massive amounts of long positions which did not support my bullish outlook anymore.

With the US in the largest trade war in its history, you would figure that the US dollar would implode. Last week commercials took away 1316 short positions and even added 233 contracts to their long positions. I see that as a bullish development and to some extent, supports my bullish wave counts.

The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act signed in 1930 killed the stock market in 1929, but stocks have not reacted to our present trade war that much. How long that will last may just be the best guess scenario at this time.

Hits: 18

US Dollar Intraday Update

Markets can turn at the beginning, middle, or end of a month most of the time.  The USD had a bearish relapse this month but it looks like a corrective zigzag may have completed.

It also means that the USD can soar much higher.  The US dollar is in a bull market which started in 2008, but this bull market is also producing a large number of overlapping waves. which work best as diagonal waves.

The USD may not breakout and even give us another leg down but in the bigger picture, this US Dollar is in a bull market even though commercials are heavy net short.

Last week commercial net short positions had a ratio of 40:1, which I consider extreme. Having a bullish wave count with those conditions in place is like two cars playing “Chicken” on the freeway!  Last week the commercials added contracts to their long positions and took away 424 contracts from their short positions. This gives a clue that commercials had a bullish outlook last week!

It may be hard to realize but the USD has been in a major bull market since the 2008 bottom which I documented very well. The thing is the younger generation today has no clue how emotional that time period was.

Emotions of a herd only last for so long after which they disappear. It is the numbers and letters of the EWP that capture these emotions. You heard about the “Message in a Bottle”, well the EWP is all about “Emotions in a Bottle”.

Even with the trade war being in full swing, the USD keeps making bullish progress.

On the monthly charts, the golden cross has already happened, while on the weekly charts the moving averages are on the verge of creating another golden cross as well.  The moving averages are giving bullish signals so we have to see who wins by the end of this month.

The full moon is coming up this weekend, so that can produce a turning next week as well.

 

Hits: 11

US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Update

After a stunning run, the US dollar has started to back-off again.  In my last update I had the US dollar in a diagonal wave count, but this time I looked for a cleaner impulse. The top trend line is based on the bottom support line, so the US dollar was still a bit shy of hitting it.

I think the USD is still in a bullish phase but corrections can seem like the return of the USD bear. The commercial hedgers have net short bearish positions, so any bullish wave count I have is fighting headwinds.

Of course, hedgers can change positions very fast, but we have to wait until Friday’s COT reports come out.

I wouldn’t want to see the US dollar slice through the bottom trend line, but it’s impossible to catch surprise moves most of the time.

 

 

Hits: 12

US Dollar Intraday Bullish Move Update

In the last few weeks and the turmoil in world events, the US dollar is very close to making new record bullish highs. This 97.100 price range is also producing potential resistance.  Will the USD keep on soaring or will it implode due to all the stories about how Russia, China, and Iran are buying gold to destroy the US dollar!  They can’t be buying gold, or they have stopped buying gold because gold has been crashing as the US dollar is soaring.

I won’t repeat any of the fundamentals as thousands of analysts have got that covered. I look at the COT reports and a month or so ago, the commercial hedgers removed a “Large” amount of long positions, with last weeks positions creating a net short ratio of 48.36:1.  In other words, commercial hedgers are bearish by a wide margin, but yet the USD is still going for record highs.

Looking for a bullish wave count under those conditions is like playing “Elliott Wave Count Chicken”, so how long this bullish push will keep going is a good guess at best.

The vertical spike last night would be enough for me to turn very bearish on the USD, but I can still see bullish wave counts developing.

Gold is reacting to the US dollar rally as expected, but its decline will also stop dead and reverse once the USD starts on a much bigger correction.

Hits: 14

US Dollar Intraday Bullish Phase Update.

On the 12th of April, the US dollar index seemed to have made a good bottom which may be the 4th wave of Minuette degree. It could take the rest of the month to play out but the full moon this Friday may change all that.

Looking for a bullish wave count in a world that is trying to kill the US dollar seems futile at best but that’s what markets do, as they act the opposite of what the majority always expect. Against all odds, the USD has turned bullish. Any 5th wave can extend blasting to new record highs and I’m sure we will get a heavy dose of diagonal wave structures as well.

It would be nice to see the USD above 97.700 but that could just be wishful thinking at this time. The commercials are not on the bullish side so any bullish wave count I have technically should not work.

 

Hits: 14

US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Gyrations Update

In bear markets, it gets ugly as all the bad fundamental news become front page blog news. There is also a whole lot less cooperation as deals fall apart or governments make wild moves that reverberate around the world. It’s a mixed bag of news so the fundamentalists are getting conflicting news.

Yet with all that, the US dollar doesn’t want to die but is still making bullish progress. I stayed with my 4th wave bottom but the 5th wave could also be another zigzag. I have a set of overlapping waves that defies description except a diagonal. I have also seen these “C” waves explode and extend that also defies logic but happens regularly.

One reason the USD has not died just yet is that it is in a much bigger bull market than many of us do not understand.  It is also the main reason why gold and silver continue to underperform.

This is last Friday’s USD COT report and something wild did happen that was a rather rare event and that was that the commercial hedgers removed a big amount of long positions when they were net short already.

This turned into a 41.8:1 net short position which is a huge jump I have seen in all the years looking at COT reports.  It also puts my bullish wave count at odds with the commercials,  like I’m playing “Chicken” with who turns first.

I could see it if a big vertical spike was developing, but we’ve only had small spikes since early 2018.

Yes, the USD could make a sudden move south but with this pattern, it’s much harder to tell.

Hits: 16

US Dollar Daily Chart Review

From this perspective, I can sure show you a very bearish US dollar pattern as I have a group of overlapping waves that can’t make fit.  With a potential wedge and the right shoulder, the US dollar sure looks bearish. At least in the short term. The right shoulder will not hold if the USD is in a bigger bullish phase.

Tomorrow is also the full moon which can produce some amazing reversals but many turnings also happen closer to the end of a month, so the USD can remain bearish for another couple of weeks.

Commercials support a bearish stance right now, as they are net short by a margin of 10.9:1. Of course, the speculators have been chasing the US dollar bullish phase but their net long ratio would shrink as the US dollar declines some more.

A price drops down to the 94 price level would be one of my choices which would trash the bottom support line as well.

In the short term I’m bearish but longer term the US dollar could be in a bigger bull market that very few of us are expecting.  In 2008 the entire planet hated the US dollar, but yet look what happened! The US dollar soared while gold crashed a couple of hundred dollars. The USD has a 26-year falling wedge which can produce super bullish phases.

 

Hits: 11

US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Update.

Some investors are looking for the US dollar to imploded due to the massive printing program they have done over the decades. Back in 2008, this bearish mania was at its record low from its 1985 peak. We were all warned over and over to get into gold and out of the US dollar, yet what happened was the exact opposite. Back in 2008 the USD exploded and has been in a bull market ever since.

This intraday chart is just a very small time period of this bull market, part of a 5 wave run in Minor degree. The 4th wave sure looks like it ended in January as the second low was a higher corrective low. The late January crash has been retraced, and at this time the USD sure seems like it wants to keep heading higher.

It would be nice to think that another wave 1 peak has completed in Minuette degree, but the commercials are still building bearish positions.

I would be very bearish on the US dollar but usually, any asset class will start to “Act” funny, before it reverses any strong trend, which the US dollar has not created just yet.  The Euro and our CAD have also made some bearish moves which should happen as they act inversely inside the US dollar basket.

I would love to see the US dollar break above the 97.711 price level as that would establish a new 2019 record high.

 

At this time the commercials have a net short ratio of 7.29:1 which is on the extreme side. I’ve seen worse so this can keep going for many weeks.  The speculators removed 1659 contracts of their long positions which means they got scared. Another way of looking at this is that my bullish wave count is playing “Chicken” with the commercials at this time. One thing that has not happened as well, is a strong vertical spike in the daily, weekly or monthly charts.

On the daily chart, the USD has found support at the 200-day MA and is still under the influence of a Golden Cross.

Hits: 12

US Dollar Intraday Double Top!

Before the digital ink even dried from my previous US dollar posting, we just hit a double top this morning to within .003 of a point.  Now we have to wait and see if this is a bullish H&S or a bearish one.  I still have 3 degrees left but we may be close to a wave 4 type of correction.  I may also be jumping the gun here, as just a small spike has developed. This entire bullish phase has been running since the January 10th bottom with the February low being the secondary bottom as a higher low. I believe the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market than most of us expect, but where we are in this bull market is always the task at hand. The US dollar turned very bullish in 2008 and since then has been in a 5 wave run in Primary degree.

The Euro took a hit, as well as the other 5 in the USD basket!

Hits: 7

US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

News of a truce in the shut-down wars, forced a reaction from gold, while the US dollar imploded. The Euro and the CAD also reacted on Friday.  It looks like the US dollar is going to keep heading south, but this could also be just another correction.  We only have about 5 more trading days until the end of January after which the US dollar can add another leg up.  Above all, and to help confirm another bullish leg up, this US dollar chart can’t crash below the January 10th low of about 95.050. Besides a few “flash” type moves the markets have been pretty boring, but with the government ready to publish some economic data in the next few weeks, all hell could break lose.

———-

My updates are going to be sporadic in the next few weeks and months. I will put up a permanent page posting when I have more information.

Hits: 13

US Dollar Weekly Chart Review

Since the 2011 bottom, the USD turned bullish again which also matched the stock market bottoms of 2011. Stocks soared and gold-related assets started a major bear market.  I believe the bull market in the USD has a long way to go, but where we are in this bullish phase is the challenge we face. The COT reports are useless due to the government shutdown but my last readings from Dec, 20th the commercial speculators were very bearish.  This is a very bearish sign for the US dollar but the commercials were also very bearish on, silver, Gold, aluminum, palladium, and platinum.

During the late 2018 peak the US dollar produced a very complex pattern that may have finished on January 10 2019. During this USD decline gold gave us an impressive performance that has many convinced gold is going way above $1400.

The US dollar is on a 5 wave run in Primary degree. Take the Euro and invert it, and it would just about look like the US dollar. Only time will tell if the USD has bottomed but eventually the USD should go well above the 104 price level.

Hits: 18

USD Index From A Bear To A Bull in 23 Years: 1985-2008 Review

 

From the February 1985 peak (164.720) the US dollar index started a meltdown that should have sent gold soaring. By the time the USD hit this peak gold already had crashed. In 1992 the US hit another record bottom that I can only count as a diagonal wave structure. Another fast move up and then down again producing a higher low, which is a sign of a bullish move still to come. This move had 5 waves in it alright, but only in Minor degree. The entire USD bullish move was coming to an end and the gold price was crushed at $252 in August of 1999!

From this 2001 US dollar peak, the bearish move resumed, driving the gold price and the oil price with it. By March 2008 the US Dollar was coming to a major bottom that many of the good contrarians of the day saw coming. The 2008 bottom was a Cycle degree wave 4 low. It was not some little bottom in an on-going bear market. Everybody on the planet hated the US dollar at that time, and a panic into gold started to pick up speed.

It was oil that crashed in 2008, 3 years before gold. Since the 2008 bottom, I counted the US dollar as a bear market rally which proved futile forcing a review looking for a much bigger bullish move.

The big top declining trend line has now been broken also signaling a bigger bullish move still to come. Another indicator that a huge US dollar bull market is still in progress is that falling wedge we see.  For most of 2018 the trade war rhetoric has been flying all around the world and yet the US dollar was in a rally the entire time.

Now that the Fed has given the green light, investors jumped back into the stock markets again. Shouldn’t the US dollar keep soaring if trade war peace is being declared at the G20 meeting? With tensions around the trade issue being reduced there would be no need to hold gold as a hedge. Commercial traders are already net short by a wide margin and it will be interesting to see if they close off their short positions with this Fridays COT report.

Longer term the US dollar looks like a run of 5 waves in Primary degree is in effect, and the 89 price level is the start of the 5th wave in Intermediate degree.

Understanding the US dollar bull market is critical as this is not a short-term bullish blip on the charts, not by a long shot. Recently the US dollar has made some moves that could still be bearish which may support the gold price this week.

There are three main prices that should get retraced and the first near-term price target is 103.800. The 121 price level is next which could take a few years before it gets hit!

The real threat is deflation, which has more to do with demographics or the world birthrate crash than a good stock market.

 

Hits: 76

US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Update

 

One of the reasons why gold is not really soaring in price is because the US dollar is in a bull market, and not in a bear market rally. Sure, we will see the US dollar tumble, but that will happen during a bigger degree of a correction. The US dollar started getting a bit more choppy recently which can mean a correction is still in progress. The US dollar can still take another dip to the downside before it resumes its bullish trend.

Waiting for the US dollar to turn into an extended bear market is not going to happen at this time, even though commercial hedgers are in net short positions already. The commercial traders do not confirm bullish COT positions in gold or silver, so I’m pretty confident gold and silver will still act rather subdued in the near term.

Longer-term, the US dollar will soar above the 103.820 price level which would be another all-time record high since the major 2008 bottom. Wishing for a 2001-2008 like US dollar decline is just wishful thinking because there is no room on the charts for that to happen. The Euro is inverse to the US dollar and I’m sure it’s not going to jump out of the USD basket today or tomorrow. This trade war thing started well before President Trump got into power, so you can’t blame all market woes on President Trump. The massive debt bubble that China is creating has been bursting which makes the US dollar the go-to currency of the world.

Have you noticed how fast GM shut down production in Canada and the USA? It’s more a snub towards President Trump as I’m sure any plants outside the US or Canada will be the last to shut down.

Hits: 14

US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Update.

 

When I see this US dollar chart, it sure looks like a bullish move to me.  Even with all the Trump rhetoric, the US dollar is taking it in stride. I’m starting to push my degree levels to the point I may run out.  When that happens then a bigger review will need to be done. The US dollar has demonstrated to me that it remains in a bullish trend, which started way back in 2008!  It may take the rest of the week or longer, but the USD should show us new record highs.

Anything above the 104 price level could be the setup for a major USD reversal. All other currencies inside the US dollar basket should react positively as well. One way to look at it is that we include gold inside this basket, as it acts inverse to the US dollar very well. Demographics is the main driver of the US dollar as very few even look at the generational impact of the aging boomers.

Breaking out over 97.700 would be the first hurdle to cross, but an impending small double top could put up a good fight. Some analysts are saying that 2019 could be very positive for gold and I see no problem with that, but I would like to see my wave count of wave 3 in Primary degree start to arrive first.

 

 

Hits: 10

US Dollar Intraday Update: Is The Bottom In?

 

This morning the US dollar spiked to the downside and then instantly turned back up. Now we have to see if we keep getting higher lows, as that is one sign of a bullish phase cranking back up.

One thing I like to stress is that the commercial hedgers are net short by a wide margin, but I have also witnessed them make dramatic changes from one week to the next. Besides those commercials are net short in the precious metals which I think could have far more power than one single asset class. Commercial traders don’t have the same agenda as non-commercials do as they work inside or with the people closest to the industry.

Many Gold investors may wish and pray for the US dollar to implode but that is highly unlikely this time. The 2008 low in the US dollar was a.”Major” low that I documented very well. The US dollar also produced a giant falling wedge, about 23 years long. By itself, this type of wedge is extremely bullish, so it’s not just about any single wave count.

I spent years looking at the US dollar as a big bear market rally but every bearish wave count I came up with would never last for very long.

A new record high will help to confirm that the bullish scenario is alive and well!

Hits: 12

US Dollar Intraday Bullish Review!

The US dollar may not be finished just yet, as one more plunge can also still happen. The small open gap is now closed off and a small H&S pattern is also forming. Higher lows is a sign of a bull market, and so far the US dollar index is still creating them. The idea that the US dollar is in a bull market sounds impossible to comprehend by many, but everybody on the planet hated the US dollar in 2008 but yet the US dollar turned and then soared. I spent years counting the US rally as a bear market rally, but my wave counts were trashed many times.

2008 was such an extreme bottom for US dollar which most people are not aware of.  I remember it very well as I had the USD 2008 bottom extremely well documented. 2008 was also the ending of a huge falling wedge, which if they are ignored can produce very violent reversals. We are getting close to a 10-year US dollar bull market where 5 waves up in Primary degree are in effect. Wave 3 in Primary degree would still be in our future as that would represent the increasing “Buying Power” of the US dollar. The Fed action of raising rates is draining liquidity out of the markets which is exactly what raising rates are designed to do in the first place. When markets crash then trillions of dollars will go up in smoke in rapid fashion.

At that rate, money will be destroyed and it would take a 2000 horsepower turbocharged engine driving the printing presses to build it all backup!  When the world is choking on debt then no matter how low rates may go they no longer have the stomach to take on more debt.

Hits: 11

US Dollar Bull Market Correction Update

Since the top of the September in stocks, this US dollar chart has also been on a bullish phase that the contrarians said will never happen. Well this USD bull market just keeps on going, and going  even though the commercials were net short by a large margin. I was pleasantly surprised last week as the commercials added to the bullish side and they removed  some contracts from the bearish side.  The 2008 bottom with the USD was an extreme the likes that only comes along once every 30 years. The USD bull market is only 10 years old, but it sure looks like it’s running a set of 5 waves in Primary degree. Wave 3 in the Primary degree is still ahead of us. Wave 3 peak would coincide with my “A” wave bottom in my Gold wave counts.

This correction could still make some twists and turns as this correction may not be finished today.

Hits: 15

US Dollar Scores Another Bull Market High!

 

The last post I showed that the US dollar was in a correction. This has now been confirmed with the US dollar completely retracing the zigzag and pushing to a new high. I’ve made some wave position adjustments with wave 1 in Minor degree already being completed, and another 1-2, 1-2,  impulse type waves could be in play. Tonight the US dollar has gone vertical, even leaving a small open gap in its wake.

There can be a fast correction by closing the gap and then resuming its bullish trend. The intraday price action is not acting like a bear would as we keep getting higher lows and higher highs as well. This price action came with the commercials already having large net short positions in the US dollar, and to make matters worse, they added long positions last week. Even the commercial hedgers turned bearish on silver, gold, platinum, and palladium last week as their short bets also increased.

The Euro and our CAD also reacted by going down, so all this does not support a gold bull market anytime soon.

Hits: 10

US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Update!

 

This US dollar index has just pushed to a new record high this morning! This is not what the Gold experts want, as a rising dollar is not good for gold which has now responded with a price crash of $38! My Market Vane Report shows that about 74% of the traders are in a bullish mood. This is pretty decent but this not at a wild extreme just yet.  Even the commercial hedgers were net long with last Friday’s report, but they can switch just as fast.

I think the US dollar is in a bigger bull market than we can all imagine at this time.  At this time I’m counting the entire US bullish move that started in 2008, as a single diagonal wave structure, which allows for overlapping wave structures. As the US dollar poke higher, we can check the Euro and see that it is plunging. There are a few other currencies that travel inversely to the US dollar and our CAD is also on that list of 6 currencies.  The Australian dollar is not on that list but runs inversely to the US dollar as well.

In order for this rally to be a bear market rally, then 8 months of bullish action must get retraced!  This is not going to happen this year or even a decade from now.  To confirm that the USD is in a bigger bull market than what investors realize, it has to break out and create a  new record high. This high was in December 2016 at the 103.600 price level.

Just eyeballing the weekly charts, we are close to about halfway to this target.

Hits: 16

US Dollar Intraday Update

 

This morning the US dollar spike to the downside and then reversed quickly. The Euro did the same thing except the Euro is inverse to the US dollar. Calling for a massive gold bull market just doesn’t fit well if the US dollar is on a bullish reversal. Any sustained bullish move in gold will not happen if the US dollar is in a big bull market that nobody is talking about. Analysts think that the Euro is better than the US dollar when they are bullish on gold, but I don’t see it that way.

The Commercial hedgers are skewed to the bearish side of the US dollar by a wide margin, but the Euro does not confirm it. In a wild move, COT reports can shift very fast, as they can add 10,000 long contracts and at the same time 10-15,000 short contracts get removed.

What many do not understand is that the 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a “major” bear market low, which had its beginnings in 1985! This 23-year bear market was just a correction to an even bigger bull market still in progress.

2008 gave us a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, which should never get completely retraced. Back in those days, the US dollar bearish mood was relentless and intense. The majority of analysts got fooled by that bottom, just like they were fooled by the Euro peak.

 

 

 

 

 

Hits: 15

US Dollar Daily Chart: Still Heading North!

 

The recent rally in the US dollar could be just Submiuette degree but it is enough to question any bearish wave counts I was working. At least in the short-term. I looked at last weeks USD COT report, and they are about as bearish as I have ever seen them. 25:1 is what we have right now, while the speculators are doing the exact opposite.

The speculators only have a 6.68:1 net long position, but they are the ones that always get into a trap in one direction or another.  The thing is, the traders in the Euro do not support such a bullish outlook just yet. As I was counting out the Euro at the intraday level, it sure looked like a small triangle has completed. Invert the Euro and we see the same thing with the US dollar.

The US dollar rally will sure keep the lid on gold prices, which may change on a month to month basis.  Even a “Head” is forming, which you will see if we draw an invisible angle line.

Any small correction can still happen but otherwise, I would need a complete set of 5 waves in Minute degree.  The 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a Cycle degree wave 4, so there is no chance the US dollar is on some manipulated path to kill any gold rally. The future threat is not inflation but it’s deflation and this FED rate increase is still fighting inflation.  Even at these elevated price levels, the USD has no room to make a long decline, so that also keeps the US dollar in a long-term bull market. Inflation has nothing to do with how much they print, but it’s all got to do with the “Velocity” of any money in the economy.

It’s the demographic age shift of the “Boomer” generation that will slow down future velocity. Since 2011, 10,000 “boomers” are retiring every single day, which will last until about 2030.  It’s not rocketing science folks as all those boomers will need to cash in their RRSPs and downsize as we become non-productive, leaving the workforce in droves. I’m still very productive, as my little mouse finger does all the heavy lifting. 🙂

I will keep this update short for now, as I may have to make changes, but it may last until the end of this month before, clearer picture forms.

Hits: 13