Silver Intraday Decline Review

It sure looks like the silver bearish phase is continuing but gold is lagging behind. Gold can give us a bullish wave count while silver fits into a 4th wave rally very well.

Silver has walked to a different drummer for as long as I have been tracking it, so I do not expect it to change.

Silver is $3.65 away from crashing to new record lows while gold has a much further distance to cover.

Only time will answer that question which could take to the end of the year or longer.

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Silver Daily Chart Update

Silver has also completed a wave 2 but I’m using Minor degree this time. Silver marches to a different drummer alright as it did not get the media attention as gold certainly did.

Silver gets attention when it soars but since it seems to be dying again analysts get bored and move on.  Silver is also just $ 4.43 away from staying on the bullish side, otherwise if silver falls below $13.58 it becomes a false bull market, which is a bear market rally from my perspective.

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Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2019 Review

One reason that not too many wave analysts work on silver as it just does not play well with gold. It is a difficult task alright as the choppy waves overlap dramatically.

When that happens then diagonal wave structures are in force like they are in “All” commodities.  Silver didn’t even get past the Aug 1, 2016 high of $20.76, while gold left silver in the dust!

Last weeks spike peak which I look for are my sell signals, regardless of how they might say silver will go to.  Catching up to silver seems to be the battle cry most of the time, but the same thing happened at the 2011 peak.  I have returned to silver as a 4th wave rally which I have used for some time before.

A new zigzag should form but that impending zigzag should take out all double bottom support. Just by dropping down one degree pushes any “A” wave in Primary degree into the future in the next year or so.

Any drop in the silver price below $13.50 would confirm that silver was just a bear market rally. All silver needs to do is drop a bit more than $6 from today’s highs.

From 1980 to about 1999 silver was in a 19-year bear market, so don’t expect a 10-year bear market to finish a Cycle degree bear market just yet.

 

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Silver Intraday Crash Update

As much as I would like to give you a wave count matching the bullish herd, I can’t.  The above silver COT report has the commercials at record high short positions.  They do not support a long term bull market in silver.  Last weeks silver spike on the daily charts was a sell signal, from my perspective.

All weekend I have conducted reviews in silver and gold going right back to the 2011 peak. There are some serious differences between the two but right now I will deal with silver. I have always complained that silver walks to a different drummer and one reason that this is the case is that no “A” wave in Primary degree has started back at the 2015 bottom and a possible 4th wave in Intermediate degree has recently ended.

What I’m looking for is another Minor degree zigzag that at this time I will not mention any support. From the 2011 peak, I can count out diagonal patterns so the ugly pattern since the 2015 bottom, is just continuing. I have used this wave count many times before and will now run it until it no longer works.

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Silver Daily Chart Crash Review

Many analysts are talking how silver will outperform gold yet silver still needs to go above $21. Silver is lagging far behind gold just like it has done since the August 2016 peak.

In the last few days, 2 vertical spikes formed which is usually a sell signal. I closed my 9 silver positions a bit after the top @ $19.07  and now have to wait for another good setup.

So far I can’t see any Minute degree wave count that has complete which I don’t like to see, while gold is ready for a 4th wave correction in Minor degree.

The short version is that silver is still marching to a different drummer.

At the intraday scale silver is close to another double bottom but I don’t trust it as on the Forex screen silver has already lost support.

Every bullish correction on the way up could now offer support if the gold bulls are correct. As it sits silver can be in just another zigzag.

The silver decline had mostly 5 wave sequences so looking for a correction to finish, is the best guess scenario right now.

I already switched to a bullish position but will close off Sunday night if silver doesn’t return to a bullish acting pattern.

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Silver: Still Flying High Weekly Chart Review

I’m impressed with this vertical move in silver as I haven’t had a chart move like this in quite some time.  At the $20 price level silver is going to run into some resistance and at $21 silver is going to make a breakout.

Usually, when a spike like this happens, it’s followed by a correction or complete end of a trend. I don’t think we are at the end of this bullish move as we would get a little more warning with many more choppy wave structures.

This silver move is already past that of a good zigzag (bear rally) so the 5 wave sequence is still alive an well. I took on long silver units when silver was just above $16 and I will let it ride at this time.

We may start to read very bullish scenarios about silver like they are doing with gold but most of them are “Pie in the sky” forecasts.

I still believe a 4th wave will come but it would be far too early if it tried to start a 4th wave correction now!

 

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Silver Monthly Chart Review

Many believe that silver is going to outperform gold.  Right now gold is leading, with silver still trailing far behind.  I don’t see the big deal as silver failed to perform compared to the 1980 peak and the 2011 peak.

When I turn the settings to line type, then that huge 1980 spike turns into a $35 spike.  About $13 disappears when switching settings.

Silver is a prime example of what diagonal waves can look like as the 1990 bear market had many overlapping waves followed by a bull market after the 2001 bottom.

More spikes formed during the 2002-2011 bullish phase which was also a “C” wave bull market.

Then in early 2011 silver peaked and then started a 4+ year bearish phase that looks like a 5 wave decline at this time.

That bearish phase ended in late 2015 and silver exploded along with gold. I’m sure more silver upside is still to come even though silver is dragging its feet.

The commercials made bearish moves last week but it seems they can handle much more as this bullish phase progresses.

Somewhere silver will start to extend and since wave 1 is a bit short, this could force wave 3 and wave 5 to extend. I’m not too concerned which one will extend because the bullish phase will end when all the experts start calling for $200-$500 silver again! They have been calling for $200 silver since the 1970s and the silver price has never hit $200!

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Soaring Silver Daily Chart Update

Silver has come back from the “Dead” and has been soaring with a great spike being formed right now.  I believe there is more silver upside, but the corrections can scare even the most bullish traders.  This could be part of a 5 wave Minor degree sequence, which also makes it a “C” wave bull market.

I have about 6 silver long positions which I got in a little late but I have no intention of selling just yet.  I find no use in using the outdated Gold/Silver ratio as they are both used as metal currencies.

I don’t see any group of analysts that use silver as a base to calculate all other ratios with.

Silver is also part of the “Energy Metals” group as it is used in solar cell production. Silver might not slow down until we reach wave 3-4 in Minor degree so be prepared for a wild ride.

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Silver Weekly Chart Bullish Review

Silver has always been a bit different from gold as it seems silver is starting to wake up while gold has already cleared the 2016 high point.  The choppy decline 2016-2018 looks like a triangle in the “B” wave position.

My personal opinion is that silver will not play the catch-up game as the 2011 peak was not much bigger than the 1980 silver peak was!

At a minimum silver should retrace the August 2016 high of about $20.  In the long run that isn’t high enough to fill out a “B” wave top in Primary degree, so extensions will be required.

Silver is starting this impending 5 wave run as a diagonal, so some wild moves will surprise us. Just because silver is going up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market as bear market rallies can be huge.

Many diagonal patterns turn vertical and we could swear the move is coming to an end, but that has to happen when all the headlines are bullish towards investing in silver.  If fear has anything to do with the silver price rise, then that move can’t be maintained, no matter how much we want the trend to continue.

Silver has to keep produce higher highs which started around November 2018, with a “C” wave bullish phase.

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Silver Monthly Chart And The Impending Death Cross Review!

Since the 1980 peak, the silver market crashed and turned into a bear market, with a bunch of “Truncated” bottoms or what I call A “Running” pattern that falls short of expectations.   The 2011 peak was also a shortened wave just barely breaking the 1980 silver peak.

The bullish phase from 2002 to 2011 was a 5 wave “C” wave bull market which alternated perfectly in pattern to the 70’s bull market. Readers may find it strange but the 2011 peak coincided very well with the first peak of solar cycle 24 while the 1980 peak matched solar cycle 21.

In the big picture of things, diagonal wave structures dominated the commodities markets and silver is just one shining example. I have been told that silver is in a bull market but that theory will get blown out of the water, once silver breaks critical support at about the $13.50 price level.

All bullish forecasts will be proven wrong once silver breaks this crucial support. Don’t get fooled when silver moves in small increments or seem very slow as there are no daily trading limits on most commodities, which can produce dynamic free falls that investors can’t handle. If we are in a Cycle degree silver market then any Cycle degree correction is still far from finished.

There are 30-year cycles between major bull market peaks and the next major peak could take until 2041 to complete.

Since the 2005 bottom silver has enjoyed the effect of a golden cross!  On this monthly chart, silver has already produced a “Death Cross” so being bullish in a death cross world may not work out too well in the longer run. Many if not most metals can be called, “Energy Metals”  and silver can be called that due to the fact the silver is used in solar panels!  which feed the “Green Economy”!

I will try and incorporate more and more solar cycle commentary as from my perspective the sun and its 11-year cycles control our planet.

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Bearish Review

As we can see on this silver weekly chart, for the last few years the basic trend has been down while gold’s trend was pointing up. Just because gold has been going up does not mean that gold is in a bull market.

Since the April 2011 peak silver has had many powerful rallies that “All” turned into bear market rallies by retracing the previous bullish move and then proceeding lower.  Silver is only about $1.40 away from a complete retracement of its 2018 bottom which would make it an 8-year bear market still in progress.  All the gold hype is brainwashing us while silver is being ignored on the most part.

Another strong dip below $13.56 would confirm that the big silver bear (Polar Bear) is alive and well.  The silver bear is already 8 years old and it will be important to watch for the next year or so.

The 2011 peak is a 31-year peak counting from 1980. The difference between the 1980 peak and the 2011 peak can hardly be measured. Both were solar cycle peaks, while solar cycle 24 had a secondary peak in 2014.

The solar cycle is what drives the business cycles on earth and silver could remain bearish until solar cycle 24 has ended. This might take until the fall of 2020 to play out.

The commercials added long and short positions, last week, which only changes the open interest as they are still net short.

When I have the moving averages turned on, we already had the Death Cross on the weekly and monthly charts, but not on the daily chart. This just supports any bearish outlook I might have at this stage of the game.

 

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Death Cross Update.

This weekly chart shows the 2011 peak which was an insane mania peak ending 31 years after the 1980 silver mania peak. Crazy peaks like this do not correct in just a few short years but can take many years. 2011 also was an ending to zigzag peak in Primary degree, and topping it off with my Cycle degree wave 3. We are now a little over 7 years old in this bearish phase, and even if another major bottom materializes it could still take until 2021 to complete. 2011+30 years could give us a new Supercycle degree peak in 2041!  Once the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom becomes more certain, we can take that date and subtract that from 2041. I have counted out several silver bear markets that have lasted about 13 years, which would give us a bottom closer to 2024, leaving us with a potential 17-year bull market.

This is all fine and dandy but there is a big catch! This impending bull market will be in the shape of another huge zigzag in Primary degree.

In the last few days, silver has peaked and has now started to correct, depending on what you believe in. A true bull market cannot let silver crash below $13.50 which is only $2.06 away from doing so. On the daily chart, there is a huge gap still open that won’t get close until the $14.80 price level has been hit. This may supply short term support but if this so-called rally is a bear market rally then a new record low silver price will come.

The Death Cross on this weekly chart happened back in July 2018, with the daily chart Death Cross happening soon once silver gets near the gap.

Also, the monthly Death Cross is now having a big Valintine’s smooching feast as the 200-day and 50-day MA are kissing. The short version is there is no Golden Cross insight anywhere!

The silver COT report below shows commercials in the highest short position in close to a year so that reading does not entice me to stay in any long positions.

 

Friday night will give us some updated COT data but commercials would have to shift dramatically, and make that big red line disappear!

 

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Silver Monthly Chart 1980-2019 Review

Many analysts and wave analysts are very bullish on gold and silver as they think it offers some protection or safe harbor.  Running into an asset class is an emotional decision, not a logic one.

Emotional runs rarely last that long and as we can see if we look back in history, how violent silver moves have been. Of course, 20-20 hindsight vision is all fine and dandy, but if we don’t look back further than 2011, it is hard to imagine how violent silver prices have moved in the past. It’s the nature of the beast as commodities all follow the diagonal wave patterns, not those pretty wave patterns that we have in the DJIA or SP500.  Diagonal wave structures break all the rules as overlapping is more like the rule than the exception.

I remember the days when the Hunt brothers were trying to corner the silver market and since they tried to do this near a 30-year 1980 record high it was doomed to fail.

If we look at the spikes in 1980 and 2011, what followed was a huge bear market. Commodities are just big zigzags that are linked together and silver is no exception. The 30-year cycle with a ± 1-year frequency to it can be tracked back by counting backward by 30 years each time. The 120, 90, 60-year cycles all contain the 30-year cycles as well. 2041 will be a Supercycle degree peak but that will not happen until the bear market since the 2011 peak is finished.

Last week the government bureaucrats went back to work and actually produced new COT reports dated February 1, 2011. During this downtime, the commercials didn’t get excited and jump on the bullish silver bandwagon but they turned bearish and increased their net short silver positions. The speculators did the exact opposite as they are still chasing the silver bull.  This gives me confidence that the bull market in silver can turn on a dime, and break a new record, below the $13-$14 price level.  The recent bullish phase in silver is just barely 3 months old and is lagging gold by a long shot.

Commercials added 2960 short positions and removed 1433 long positions. Combine the two and I see more bearish moves to come, than bullish moves. It’s the non-commercial hedgers that always get in a trap, not the commercials who work inside the industry.

Gold commercials made a big bearish move, which I will post and edit in my recent gold post.

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Silver Daily Chart Review

When we look at the last 2 years we can see the angle of the pattern sloping down.  This is nothing like what gold has done as gold has a much more bullish angle to it. It’s gold that is brainwashing us while silver only saw it’s a new record low in November of 2018. That would make the silver bull market just about 6 weeks old.  The record low in silver sure looks like an expanded pattern, so technically we could see silvers retrace its entire bullish move.

The bullish side of silver has already started to back off, so now we wait and see how deep any correction may take us.  “Correction” is a loose term as the silver decline has to make a pattern that can show a decent counter-rally in the next month or so. Vertical moves like this cannot be maintained, especially if this also was a run to safe-haven. Fear moves rarely last that long as they can crash faster than they went up!   The huge gap that opened up is a big hint that silver could crash to close off this gap which could take all of January to happen.

This Friday we get new government COT reports but Decembers report had commercials still building short positions. I follow two sites as they both have a bit of difference but it shows the net short positions in a more visual.

The commercial bearish outlook sure doesn’t inspire me to get all warm and fuzzy about a bull market with no end!  Since 2018, the commercial hedgers only have had net long positions 6 times.

Silver has also sliced through the 200-day MA which it has done many times before, after which silver crashed each time. The 50-day MA is at the $14.50 price level and if the bearish move returns then the 50-day MA will provide little support. Any price drop below $13.88 would definitely confirm this bullish phase as one giant bull market fake or bear market rally. Any bear market rally always retraces back to the point of origin and the only difference is the degree. If the majority can get fooled with just a Minute degree bullish phase, then the larger degree bear market rallies can easily trap the bulls.

 

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Silver 1980-2018 Monthly Chart Review

 

I spent years counting out this big silver chart, with idealized counting methods. This never made sense until I accepted the fact that commodities run under a different idealized pattern. Why did the 2011 peak barely break to a new record high while gold soared well above its 1980 peak?

They are all diagonal waves structures which defy EW accepted logic but when we accept them as being normal wave structures of the diagonal kind, then it’s a different ball game. They are all connected with zigzags and they run in 30-year cycles which tracks the Cycle degree peaks and valleys. The entire wave 3 in Submillennium degree is a diagonal wave structure, so this silver chart will not smooth out any time soon.

Counting backward 60 years from the 2011 peak gives us another Cycle degree peak in 1950-1951! Count backward another 30 years to 1920 and that would be close to SC degree wave 1-2. 2011 to our present 2018 low is not 30 years no matter how much we try to twist the math. Supercycle degree wave three in metals will not arrive until 2041.

Silver has not finished any major bear market, as last week the COT reports sure did not favor silver and most of the other precious metals as well.

 

With the commercials turning net short on silver, there would be little hope for some huge silver bull market to materialize until these COT numbers start to shift into net long positions.

The worst thing we can see is the Kiss Of Death between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is going to give us another “Death Cross”!

Silver is only 50 cents away from breaking a new bear market low! How does that work? Silver makes a new bear market low while gold is going to soar? NOT!

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Silver Weekly Chart Update: Bull Or Bear?

 

One of the main reasons why silver is important to watch is because the talking heads ignore silver in the most part. You can find 100’s of gold stories before you will ever find a good silver news story. We are being swamped with gold news which is obvious that they are brainwashing us!  In the old days, they used to brainwash people with loudspeakers attached to the roof of a car or van.

Today, they brainwash us with the internet and social media. The gold analysts repeat or regurgitate the same data over and over telling us that gold is in a bull market. For the last 2 years or so the 50 and 200-day average lines have converged where they both are working as resistance lines. When silver takes out that $13.50 support price, instantly silver is back to it’s bigger bearish trend. Any obvious move of silver to a new downside would instantly and technically make any move from the 2015 bottom, a bear market rally.

Every bear market rally gets completely retraced back down to and below the point of origin. (late 2015)  Silver’s present rally is very choppy, so it’s also giving us a clue that a new low in silver should happen. If silver did break to the downside, you will see the media join in and silver news stories will pop up like tulips in the spring.

Even now silver would have to rally dramatically before a golden cross can happen again. The commercial hedgers are net long silver, but not by that much just yet. The speculators are far more bearish on silver as they are speculating that silver is going down. It’s the speculators that get into one trap or another, but it could take many more short positions, before we run into real extremes.

Analysts do not know that the 2011 silver peak was a 30-year mania cycle peak.  Most investors don’t take cycles seriously enough, especially the 30-year cycle. In the last 4-5 months I have made thousands of simple 30-year calculations, between 100’s of peaks and sometimes there is only a 1-year difference in 90 years! It’s very easy for any person to figure out exactly “where” in this 30-year cycle, we were born in.

I use 1920, 1950, 1980 and now 2011. The next 30-year cycle peak is Supercycle degree wave 3, by 2041!

 

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Silver Daily Chart Update!

 

One thing about silver is that it walks to a different drummer than what the gold pattern has created. The same “B” wave triangle was a rising “B” wave. Even the gold stock ETFs were pointing down much like silver, and not gold.  When we pay too much attention to gold, we are being brainwashed and ignore silver in the process. This silver cash is only about $1.80 away from breaking a new record low which would be below $13 which is a Fibonacci number. In order for silver to be very bullish, it would have to surpass and exceed all those inverted zigzags I show presently.

Any triangle always forces a wave position to change degree levels, which can be 1 or even 2-degree level changes. In this case an Intermediate degree, and a Primary degree bottom at the same time.

The US dollar hasn’t died yet, as it just wants to keep pushing higher, keeping all gold related investments subdued at best.  Silver had a very choppy rally that defies any impulse specifications, so I see this as just another bear market rally fooling the majority of investors.

What the majority of gold investors don’t understand is that the 2011 peak was a 30-year “mania” commodities peak counting from the 1980 inflationary peak, with a ± 1-year error rate.  So 2011 was 30 years plus 1! Your next Supercycle commodities peak will come in 2041, which I will never see, but my grandkids will certainly live and invest in.

Diagonal wave structures dominate commodities as they have been doing that for the entire Submilllennium degree wave 3. I have created a template and an idealized chart in a very large format like 24×55 inches. 2 for diagonal wave patterns and 2 for the impulse wave patterns. These were professionally scanned by wide format scanners so the originals will print out 24×55 inches if so desired. Postage size charts just won’t cut it with me, as even 8×10 printouts are better than the shit we inside our computers.

 

 

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Silver Weekly Chart: A Double Bottom And A Bear Trap!

 

I will no longer count out Minute degree waves unless I need them to clarify a pattern. I think an SLV bear trap is in, and the fear or threat of a further decline is not going to happen. Markets never reward fear, as it takes courage to do the opposite thing. Technically the 5 waves I was expecting have already started. I only have some real money Silver units in my Forex trading account as the rest is all with GDX and options.

The only way that silver and gold will fly, is when the US dollar turns south. In the end, it will always be about the currency markets and their wild swings. Last week many of the COT reports came out with some extremes, in all those currencies inverse to the US dollar. We can argue for years where silver will end up at, but that all depends on what that 2011 peak was all about. That 2011 peak was a gold&silver mania peak that comes along once every 30 years! It is very easy to double check and count backward 3, 30-year cycles, starting from the 2011 peak, plus or minus, one year!

Commodities do not follow the normal idealized patterns as they are all connected with zigzag type waves. Why do you think that the bear market with silver in the 1990s is so choppy?  It’s because it was a very drawn out flat type of a running pattern between a much bigger zigzag in Primary degree.  It could even work as a triangle as we did move into one higher degree in 2011.

Every person can pinpoint their birth year in this 30-year cycle, as I was born year one after the 1950 gold peak. Between each cycle, it will end up with major lows, but then gold and silver become a “long-term investment” once they are crushed in price.  We will have to wait until 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to poke through the sun’s northern latitudes,  you don’t want a bearish bone left in your body when the poles on the sun start to flip. Solar cycle upswings act like bear market terminators. It would also be a good time to start a business, as you will have the power of the sun at your back!

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Silver Daily Chart: $13 Price Downside Break-Out!

 

The majority are all hypnotized by gold, and ignore silver and even gold stock ETF’s, most of the time. Once this silver futures cash chart crumbles below $13 US, then silver was in a bear market rally and the majority were fooled again. Does the silver chart above look like it’s in a bull market? This pattern is just like gold except it’s a running triangle, and about as bearish of a pattern as we can run into. A triangle in a “B” wave zigzag gives us a warning that when this ends, I must also end on a degree at least one degree higher than Intermediate degree.

A Primary degree bottom, would produce a Primary degree top with the counter-rally. The 2011 peak was a 30 year silver mania peak, not some correction in an ongoing bull market.

Commodities do not  behave like the stock markets as they are connected with large zigzags, and normal wave counting will never work. In hindsight we can see the wedge form, and the downside move it produced. We still have a long way to go, but silver and a few others are leading the way south to warmer weather!  It would not surprise me if silver eventually kissed the $8.00 price level, and we have 4 months to find out.

Silver investors will be crying the blues about this impending silver crash, but shit happens if investors don’t know what bubbles are, or even take the time to learn about bubbles. Back in 2011, Market Vane readings showed 96% bulls present, which is one of the most extreme silver bullish readings ever!  I have documented and posted this, as well as others have done. Market Vane has been around since the 60’s and the majority  don’t even know about it, or even know how to read it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Silver 2011-2018 Review

I stretched my weekly chart to 1500, so we can see back to that 2008 crash bottom. The Death Cross has already happened just like it was on a daily chart. I have only used two indicators, Two parrell lines and one 50-200-day MA. We can slice and dice any wave positions, but the fact remains that the 2011 peak was a 30-year cycle peak of a gold&silver mania bull market top. 1980 was the previous 30 year mania peak which also burst producing close to a 20 year bear market in gold and silver.

The wave counting experts ignore silver most of the time becuase they are blinded by the glitter of gold as its charts pointed up,  while silver pointed down. Silver is a better leading indicator where gold is going to go to, than the other way around.  No gold or silver stock ETF confirmed any part of gold’s breakout attempt, which obviously has failed so far. The majority of investors are always wrong at the extremes and if investors think fundamentals will send silver soaring, then they have a nasty surprise coming their way. A Cycle degree mania bubble does not get corrected in a little 4-5 year bearish phase,  least of all with just one soft landing. The correction will still last until about 2021 which would make gold and silver a 10 year bear market!

I’m a small trader not an investor, as I would never knowingly build a heavy long position, when the entire world is sitting on Death Crosses! Below $13 is the big silver number to beat, and will be the price level that confirms the last 2-3 year bullish phase was all a smoke and mirror bull market. The angle of silvers decline should turn steeper as it has done many times before. Silver also has a tendency to slice through any Fibonacci support even if it may be just for a short time peiod.

Deflation is the real threat folks, as we come off this hyped up, pumped up world of inflated prices. What most silver investors don’t know is that the world population fertility rate is crashing and has been crashing, as the major boomer populations start to die off in record numbers. Dieing boomers are “Permanent Sellers” of real estate, with smaller and smaller new generations being born following every stock market crash.

I’m very bearish on this market until I see that a major support price level has been reached! The 2008 crash low or a bit lower, is where we should expect for all this to settle. By that time all my short positions will be closed off, with an impending huge bullish phase during 2019! This will also be a big fake, or bear market rally, and it will be the very last chance for metal investors to unload at near a bubble top.

Conventional wave counting will not work in the commodities world commodities are connect together with huge zigzags lasting over 40 years. Our next zigzag decline is far from over and this fall may only be part one of a 3 part move. (A, B, C,) in Primary degree.

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Silver Monthly 1980-2018 Review

 

When we look back to the 1980 30 year silver mania peak, and compare it to our 2011 30 year mania peak, silver barely broke a new record high. Both peaks had a ridiculous forecasts associated with them, as the were calling for $200 silver in 1980 as well. If any wave analyst tries to count this out without Diagoanl Wave counting knowledge, then it will never work to ever make enough money to sustain a home based trading business. Gold and silver investors all believe that the next leg up in silver is going to blow all the bears out of the water and that their investments are going to pay-off.

I’m very confident that the Death Cross will not allow this to happen, as the Death Cross may even supersede all other indicators like the COT reports. The 2001 bottom could also work as a triangle in a “B” wave. One thing is very obvious that the entire silver markets are diagoanl wave structures, which is the norm not the exception in all commodities that I track. In commodaties, any wave analysts must instantly switch to a diagonal perspective, because normal stock market wave counting methods will never work. From the 30 year 2011 cycle peak, the decline is just your standard 5 wave diagonal decline, which are all connected with zigzags. Flats are a rarity in digaonal waves structures, but connecting zigzags rule!

The 1980 peak was a 30 year “A” wave peak in Primary degree, as the 2011 peak ended with the “C” wave in Primary degree. Missing any “C” wave in any direction, Minor degree or higher, is not an option anymore, as missing a major “C” wave bull market is where all the money is always made in   the first place.

Since the 2011 silver and gold peaks, both have a zigzag bear market in Primary degree to look forward to, which should be finished close to the 2021 time period. Three years of investor hell, but a smart traders 3 year dream come true!  Time is money, and if you get this market wrong then you actually lose double as much. We lose being on the wrong side, and we lose because another shorting opportunity has been lost. Only knowing how to bet long, means that you are running the EWP at only 50% efficiency, but that rate would jump by 100%, once we incorporate short selling into the mix.

I would be crazy to carry any long positions on the top of a Death Cross, as the Death Cross signals a big longterm downtrend still to come. The Death Cross has been used since 1929 helping the smart investor to escape the 1929 stock market crash, unscathed. For the last 3 months the 50-200-day MA has been incorporated into my wave positions as a permanent tool to use at major turnings. I’m working on about 5 of these tools that I post publically, but my in-house tools are only reserved for my most trusted paid clients.

You may never see another Minute degree wave positions counted out, as I only need all Minor, Intermediate, Primary, and Cycle degree peaks to build up a good cash base for a home based trading business. For my personal account, that magic number would be anything better than $89,000 USD cash!

Silver may have a $2 window at the bottom, which gives us little room to work with. SIL would be the silver miner stock equivilant, and it’s still heading down as well.

Commodities do not make soft landings folks, but they sure can end with a lot of violence in both directions. Silver under $13 US is the price to watch as below that number will confirm that sillver was just in a bear market rally.  Silver also had a traingle in its “B” wave so that forces my wave positions to end on at least 1 higher degree, which is Primary degree. Every 5th wave peak, “must always be capped” at all degree levels, and when I see so many analysts ignoring their 5th wave peaks, then I instantly know they are lost in their own wave counts.

The biggest deflationary decline is coming as the US dollar is in a far bigger bull market of Grand Supercycle degree. (GSC) It will be all the major corrections during this US dollar bull market, that will send silver and gold soaring and crashing.  Not until gold and silver has been crushed in price, will it be a good investment again like it was in 1950 and 2000.

Getting a 30 year bubble mixed up as just a continuation of a bull market, is the biggest mistake we can ever make. I could scream it all from the top of a building and the response would be, “Well, you never know”.  That response is normal from people that refuse to do any work at all in improving their analytics.

 

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Silver: Last Chance To Still Be In A Bull Market

 

We are getting very close to another downside move to a point where silver must turn and soar, if it still wants to destroy my bearish wave positions. Silver is $ 2.35 away from breaking all new bull market record lows. So when silver does fall below $13 then it was just in a bear market rally, and the mass of silver bugs were in a bull trap.

From the 2016 August peak and then down to that late 2016 bottom, was a Diagonal set of 5 waves, which the gold wavers called a zigzag correction. It’s just a triangle in a “B” wave, and a running “B” wave to boot.

Here is a COT report on silver  which still has the commercials in a bearish mood, while the small traders and big speculators are bullish.  Commercials are close to the core silver business and have the least amount of risk when they hedge. Speculators are the animals as they go wild chasing anything that moves in any direction. Their not in much of a bull trap right now,  but that can still change in a very short time.

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Silver Weekly And the $13 Crossing.

On quick posts I will not fill in every little fricken wave, as I count during the day all the time with my finger and eyes!  When you see any wave counting analysts fill in every little wave then that wave count is feeding you a bunch crap! I may be nasty about this but I’m sugar coating it for sure.  The gold bulls are ignoring silver and it is just $2.50 or so away from a new bear market low. The magic number is $13 and as soon as silver hits below $13, then the 3 year bull market comes to an  end!  The gold bulls call it a bull market!

I call it a bear market rally and they always have to retrace themselves.  It may take another month and when it does how do you justify silver to go to new record lows and gold soar? Give me a break! It will be silver that will drag down gold. We have a Cycle degree zigzag to go through so silver could hit $8 and when it gets between to the Cycle degree wave 4 low then silver and gold bullion will be in a major Buy&Hold that will last to the next SC degree wave three top in 2041 and 2071, and 2101. $400 for gold.  I can give you the two most important wave positions for gold and silver but I always have to visualize it first for months and then draw it out by hand and white board to make sure it has a very tight fit. 2101 is Submillennium wave 3 top in gold and silver. So you can understand how important it is to test Cycle degree wave 3 as it will be the base for the next hundred years that the younger generation of wave analysts may be able to use.  The 30 year cycle is real and it is so reliable you could set a watch on it.  Mind you it would have to be a grandfather clock!

I have to see my patterns first before I count them out, as wave counting is only the secondary act to confirm what you see.

If the entire crop of wave analyst do not see a bear market rally in silver then it is a good idea to short their views. The market is not always right, as it’s a liar and a cheat, and it will rip you off with it’s mood swings. It is the wording that I use when somebody says that the “markets are always right”

It is the job of Cycle degree wave analysis to become the bullshit detector which I think it does an excellent job.

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Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2018 Update.

The silver bulls think that silver is in a bull market, yet all my best wave counts and indicators like the Death Cross tell me an opposite story. The sideways decline in silver is doing the opposite of what gold has done and at this point, silver only has to fall about $2.90 and it will break to new record lows. Below $13  silver will have confirmed that this so called bull market is nothing but a fake, or a bear market rally. All bear market rallies retrace themselves and have been doing that since the 2011 top. We are in a 5 wave decline and we are not finished by a long shot. A crash of more than $3.00 will end all this silly debate between those who can tell what a bear market rally is and those that can’t. The majority will never want to take the time to learn. Every single counter rally in this silver bear market is just a mini bear market rally and they all have been completely retraced. Each mini bear rally attracted the gold bulls back but their bullish views were quickly dashed as being wrong!

Folks the majority always get fooled and in the case of the 2016 top they are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree rally!  If they are so easily fooled then a huge silver “B” wave bull market in Primary degree will fool many more.  Are you ready for silver to crash to $8.00 because if your not your going to miss the biggest counter rally in silver that you have seen since the 2011 peak. I’ve been actively planning my future bull ride already with my friend but I will use GDX for that.

What we see above is called “Waiting” for the trade to come to me, as everyone else chases bull markets which I never do. When you chase a bull market your too late already and those that are late will already have missed huge gains. We had a huge Death Cross and then a Golden Cross and then several little crossings which should end with a small Death crossing when silver plunges. In the weekly chart this looks much worse, and I for one see silver as a short bet not a long bet. I would “NEVER” knowingly park my bullish positions on-top of a Death Cross. When you do your are going to suffer huge losses very quickly when the bottom gives out.

The world is going to deflate when the big one hits so no gold, Silver or oil can handle that and they will suffer the same fate as the markets. This has all happened before in the 20o8 crash, where everything crashed together in a deflationary spiral. 2018 is also a very special year for earth as it hits it’s 30 year cycle, of slowing rotation.

This rotation slowdown they say will cause massive earth quakes as the earth twists and turns. The metals all run on this cycle as major peaks are 30 years apart. Cycle degree wave 5 will not finish until 2041 and I still need to work on what the price of silver will be by that time. Short answer is $89 for silver!  In gold Supercycle degree wave three will be about $2225.

I also use the 100 year cycle as a forecasting tool. I time travel back to 1919 and look forward. 1919 was the peak of a major silver bullish phase so being long at that time would shred all our gold and silver investments.  Some of the greatest shorting opportunities are also going to come, so if you can only bet one way then you are running at 50% efficiency or less.

I look for high-efficiency trades for myself and my friends and they are found in 5 wave runs. Looking for trades that will contain any Minor degree 5 wave run should never be missed as they can be great winners if you can ride the bull!  The object is to find your personal best in a single trade and then try and beat it. If you try to beat the market it will surely come back and beat you up! 🙂

I’m short gold stock ETFs and have no intention of freaking out and selling in a panic. As long as I have funds in active real money positions, I’m constantly testing my wave positions with real money.

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Silver Monthly Chart: Death Cross Countdown!

I have personally dealt more with silver than gold on the street level which I will talk more about later down this page.  Silver is a prime example what a diagaonal bull market and bear market really looks like. The 1980 peak was an “A” wave peak in Primary degree followed by a Primary degree bear market that looks like it could have ended after a running triangle or real bad running zigzag. Diagonals in bear markets distort, so we have to remember that as well. Silver just barely squeaked into a new record high on a “C” wave bull market before,  it to collapsed with the 2011 peak at about the $48 price peak. At the 2011 peak $200-$300 silver forecasts were being made. That is just a regurgitated forecast of the 1970’s so there is nothing new with those two forecasts.

Our bear market in silver is not finished, no matter how much the silver bulls keep insisting it is!  Silver is in a 5 wave diagonal decline and needs a final plunge to land at another “A” wave in Primary degree. In short this is a Cycle degree 4th wave correction containing a zigzag with three Primary degree moves. (A,B,C)  I could have the perfect wave count and the majority will never use it to buy low! I’m sure the public will be freaking out as silver plunges to new record lows. You have to be prepared well in advance and I’ve already been planning for months.

Silver bullish investors do not realize that they are bullish standing on a platform that is about to collapse, and I can scream as loud as I want and nobody will listen.  They listen to the screaming bullish move scenarios first.

During the start of the 2001 bullish cycle we can see a Golden Cross (GC) Crossings are always delayed or lagging.  It’s just a matter of a trigger and silver will implode in price.

 

I have a silver 10 ounce  Canadian Coin that I have used to bet with and I hope silver prices will crash as I will buy some more of these beautiful coins. They are heavy coins but glisten when in the light.  My coin is locked in a bet,  until gold crashes below $1047  The house (friend) pays me a 10 ounce silver coin. If I had more coins I would take on more bets.

All this could take well into the fall to play out, so have patience and let the trade come to you. I never chase a bull market or double down in a bear markets, as those are real emotional acts.

Laying down big shorts after it has turned down will cost you big time with the counter rally and most of the time you end up with nothing or a loss.

We are going to see some extreme price swings and as long as we buy bullion at the bottom of crashes we bring down the average.

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Silver Monthly Chart: Waiting For The Death Cross!

On the weekly and daily charts the Death Cross in Silver has already happened. Going back to a monthly chart shows us a different picture.  Any downside at all in silver will force the 50 day SMA into the 200 day line, and next thing you know we have a very bearish condition in silver, along with gold/oil and other currencies.

Down at the bottom in 2004 the Golden Cross started with the 50 day shooting up.  Look how far silver went on just one Golden Cross. If we keep the same sequence the Death Cross should come next.  The 50-200 SMA crossings are all lagging indicators, but I would say they work extremely well as confirm indicators.

Many are confinced silver is in a bull market and they are all waiting for a breakout heading north.  Sorry, but the markets will never do what the majority want, so it must head south instead.  When we are in a long position, but things do not progress as you would like, then quickly switch to look for the bearish signals, and see what makes more sense.

No matter what, the markets are “always right”.  It’s our opions or premises that are always wrong. In order for this bull market to just be in a bear market rally, silver has to confirm it by completley retracing its entire bullish move.  A storm is forming in the EU zone as their money printing habits have force people to flee the Euro.

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Silver Daily Chart: The Short Term Bearish Case Review

The mass media has been brainwashing us with gold bullish stories and some even have a $1550 gold price target like I had. Except for one problem and that is silver refuses to play along and has consistently lagged behind gold for the past year. Silver should have hit $20 if it joined the gold rush, but silver did not follow through.  The experts come up with the idea that silver is going to wake up and surprise us all, by playing “catch up” to gold.

The idea of silver catching up is a myth by any stretch of the imagination which has been used as an excuse why silver is lagging.  Back in 2011 they were waiting for gold stocks to “catch up ” to gold but they never did. Silver has a year long trend that has produced at least three sets of Head&Shoulder patterns, which are hard to ignore. If we were in a much bigger bullish phase, then each one of the right shoulders would lift the top trend line higher.

Silver has refused to do this as after each right shoulder the silver market has pushed down. This is the sign of a bear, not a bull. We also have a sideways wedge with silver getting very close to slicing the rising trend line in two. At $16.10 our present little rally will be confirmed as a bearish rally. Silver still has two very critical bottoms to retrace, and they are pretty close to each other. $15.50 and $15.20 could also get retraced. When silver retraces the $15.20 price level, then from my perspective silver jumps back into the unfinished bearish territory. From todays levels, silver still has to crash well below $14 which is only about $3 below present prices.

Silver has no problem crashing $3 at a crack so that could happen in rapid succession. $13 is also a great Fibonacci number. Below that $14 price level silver will have completely retraced its so called bull market, but then it would also be ready for a major new stronger bullish phase.

Sure, I’m a silver bull, but if the market is telling me that the bearish phase is not finished, I want to be aware of it. I’m also fully aware that I am going against the mainstream media bullish bias, but I have been in those situations many times before.

I was very bearish when experts were calling for a $200 silver price, from the 2011 peak, but their forecasts went south instead.

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Silver Daily Chart Update: Bull Trap?

This is a daily chart but I have increased the bar count from a normal 500 to 1500 which stretches this daily chart. This way the top wave 2 in Intermediate degree is showing.  Silver is not even close to looking like gold and I don’t think it is going to catch up. Catching up rarely happens as silver works much better as a leading indicator to what gold is going to do.

Since the 2016 peak, silver has executed a grinding bear market, which does work as a triangle in a “B” wave. Silver also has a wedge that is horizontal, further compounding the forecast in which way silver can go.  We do have a few waves that show higher lows, but that could be just a “D” wave.  Short term gold and silver can fall right along with crude oil.  The fact that silver has been struggling to gain bullish momentum also helps any bearish outlook.  Any “C” wave, crash, can happen so fast it will surprise us all.  I don’t like surprises, so it’s always a good idea to look for them before they happen.

If the bearish 4th wave scenario is true, then the silver market has to crash to new lows, even by a very small amount.

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Silver Daily Chart Update: Starting Another Bullish Phase?

Recently silver has been declining until today as silver woke up! This daily chart is vastly different than gold. Sure, they both do go up, but they are vastly different wave counts. From mid 2016 silver has pattern swings that overlap every wave next to it. To put it bluntly, there are only very small 5 wave sequences which turn into zigzags and then reverse trends.

For the correction down to July 20, 2017, a triangle is my favorite, but a very complex diagonal will also work. The last drop into mid 2017 has also ended with a clean zigzag, which happen in the diagonals as well as triangles.  Once we look carefully from the 2017 bottom, (B Wave) we had two higher lows which is the sign of a bull market or big bullish phase still in progress.

Higher lows are created by crashing flats or zigzags and in a bigger bullish phase zigzags retrace everything from where it started from. There is a big zigzag that has not been completely retraced as silver would have to go above $18.20 to do that. Above $20.80 would be the ultimate prize.

Even at $18.50 silver could head south again, but we will deal with that if and when the time arrives. In the last week I have handled a few of those new 10 ounce silver coins and they are some of the best looking coins I have seen. Silvers recent correction looks like it can contain an expanded flat, so I better start the count as the first stage to zigzag.

In order for that to get confirmed I would need silver to head to $17.80. On this daily chart, we have two major price hurdles to clear before any bullish move is completed. Sure, it all has been slow going, but when a “C” wave gets unleashed, the short players will get burned.

I’m not concerned about any rate increases that may still be coming this year as that is a sign of impending inflation, and it’s when gold and silver is supposed to shine. Sure silver and gold can fluctuate wildly in price, but it has an intrinsic value to it, where it can’t fall to zero like “any” paper  or  cyber tech asset can.

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Silver Daily Chart Crash Review: Last Chance

Silver is on its last chance to finish displaying a zigzag crash. Any new record low below $15.20 kills this wave count, so it will be critical for the next few weeks. There is a rally starting to happen, but the rally is questionable starting out. Either way we are heading for a third bottom, if silver breaks. Since the August 2016 peak, silver has been in a bearish phase that has very few sets of impulse waves in it.

To put it mildly, “Choppy as Hell”! 😯  Even though silver seems like its going to fall into the abyss, that doesn’t mean it will. Who cares about silver when Bitcoin dominates the news in the financial world. The seasoned contrarians know better, that when the public hates an asset class, then they should be buying at depressed prices. 

I lowered the wave degree back down by one degree, just in case we are in a diagonal 5th wave. I have done the same for gold as the 2011 top, may not be a Cycle degree top like I have been using. It could be a  diagonal wave 3, in Intermediate degree. Back in late 1999 they hated silver at that time as well, and look what happen to silver after that!  They hated gold even more back in those days, as anybody that had a warm body was selling gold and silver. 

Any “C5” wave bull market from a zigzag  still amazes me because they can soar so disproportional to the “A” wave.

For the rest of the year I will use this degree level in silver. I have already started the same idea with gold, which I will post this weekend.

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