Nifty: It’s More Than Just A Correction!

 

It looks like we had our peak just a bit over a month ago, and now the Nifty has shown us in what direction it really wants to go.  It looks like an expanded pattern may also have been completed. Many times the resulting “C” wave can be very steep and the Nifty sure fits that description.

No country is going to avoid or be able to hide from the impending deflationary crash that is coming. What happened in 2008, was just a Primary degree crash and recession but this time it’s bigger by “one” degree. We are heading to a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom that will not be over in just a month or two, but it could take until 2022 before the end of a bear market is near. There is no chance that I can keep up with giving detailed Nifty declines and wave counts, as the Minor degree is 3 degrees below Cycle degree.

All those experts that are telling you to buy on the “Dips” have no clue how big this bear market will get or how long it will take. After 2022 it could take a 19-year bull market before the Nifty hits new record highs, based on the 30-year cycle. The 30-year Cycle ended in 2011, but some dates will be out by a 1 year or so, especially when expanded patterns are involved.

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Nifty: Is It The Top?

 

I do have a strong following from India but I will not show every little move that might be good for simple day trading set-ups. I don’t think the Nifty can come out of the impending crash and bear market unscathed. If a new record high gets established again, it would surprise me a bit, but sooner or later all markets will start to tank. We need more downside, before we no longer have the time for a new record high in 2018 to establish itself.  We already have a small set of 5 waves forming, but we have to wait to see if other sets of 5 waves start to form.

I have no real track record of the Gold/Nifty ratio, as I would have todo some back checking to create some paramerters I can work with.  Today this ratio stands at 9.83:1, which means it takes 9.83 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nifty. This is already to the expensive side, but in the next few years we want to buy more units of  the Nifty with one ounce of gold.

The Nifty has also potentailly peaked at a Cycle degree wave 3 high, so a big long drawn-out bear market will happen. This bear market bottom may take until late 2022 to complete, which is 90 years from 1932. 90 years equals 3, 30 year cycles.  Solar Cycle #24 has to end, and solar cycle #25 will start and that is when I will turn very bullish.

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Will The Nifty Crash As well?

This is what they call a one day chart with nothing but diagonal wave structures which are not important enough to spend all my time counting them out. What I’m after is the last peak of this run as India will not be unscathed in the comming deflationary crash. So far the Nifty has already turned and August may see the continuation of a bearish trend. Every new record high could be the last record high, and the record high for all of 2008. India produces many commodaties that are traded all over the world, so when commodaties implode so will the Nifty.

The record high to beat again, is 11,366 which peaked today. I have a strong following from India as I talk to traders about the Nifty in my neighborhood. Hopefully this peak will hold but otherwise, I have to keep it in mind that any extreme can still push to a higher extreme, before they implode! Without a doubt the world is going to suffer a major deflationary crash, where nothing including gold will hold up, except for the US dollar. My personal trading account is already mostly in US dollars and they will remain there for the rest of my life, as I prefer to trade in US funds anyway.  When I convert back to CAD at any time, I get an extra 33% kicker to boot.

Gold and silver was in a 30 year mania bubble in 2011, and its crash and bear market is just starting to get going. India is also a huge gold market, so to say that bullion holders in India are not going to get hurt is an understatement.  Even cotton prices are set to implode as all commodaties will take a hit.

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Nifty: India Stock Index 2001-2018 Review

Starting back in 2001-2002 I had an Intermediate degree 4th bottom, which matches the bottom with most US indices. The pattern is also made up with diagonal wave structures, especially from the 2009 crash bottom.  That’s one ugly run from the 2009 bottom, and it is a pattern only a mother could love!

From 2009 to 2018 looks like it is right out of our EWP books as the entire 5th wave is a diagonal. I counted the diagonal with a simple wave count, but technically they are all connected zigzags. Any wave 2 or wave 4 can contain a flat type pattern, but in most part waves 1-3 and 5 should be zigzags. Expanded “B” waves could make this pattern but then we need a very strong down crash to confirm that.

I don’t think that is the case as any “B” wave rally should be far more volatile than what we can see. Is this Nifty index also at a wave 3 in Cycle degree? I sure think so, but it will take an attentive wave analyst to confirm any bear market that we are going to get.

One lesser degree from a Cycle degree top is the 4th wave in Primary degree, not Intermediate degree. This wouldn’t even kick in until the Nify hits about 6000, but most of the time corrections will travel to the lower end of the scale, which is at the 3000-2500 price range. Sometimes even a bit lower. A 73% crash may do it, and a Cycle degree bottom will correspond very well with all other markets I track.

Looking at another wedge sure will kick the enthusiasm out of the bulls,  so all I can say is “Watch Out Below”.

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