Tag Archives: Elliott Wave Nasdaq

Nasdaq Daily Chart 2018 Review

 

The November bottom and the following rally have now charged to the upside, which no longer fits into the wave 2 bullish move I did have. An instant wave count review should always be done if Minor degree moves cannot provide the confidence to trade it. This would only be a Minute degree run, but that would be enough to screw-up a wave count for life. This would be an expanded pattern, with the SP500 and the DJIA looking about the same.

Do all those emotional investors deserve a Santa rally? Not from my perspective they don’! Investors do absolutely, “Nothing”, as stock prices start turning green again. The hardest investors work, is lifting their fingers and pressing the mouse button. Of course, in today’s world, they need Artificial Intelligence (A.I) to do basically the same thing.

Some say investors deserve more, due to the risk they take. What a pile of BS that is, as investors back in 1984 took all the risk.

Many good mainstream analysts are also mentioning the Death Cross on many of the indices I cover, and this Nasdaq is no exception. The 50-day is ready to kiss the 200-day MA  which is also the Kiss Of Death” for a bull market. Anyone that stays invested or brushes off the importance of a technical indicator like a Death Cross, will get hit hard. It will be worse for all those individuals who are getting ready to retire. I think many investors have no clue how big the world tech bubble has become as I see it as a Cycle degree peak and not just a short-term correction.

I do track the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and today it sits at 5.7:1 which is extremely expensive when it takes 5.7 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq 100. A cheap ratio would be 1.18 so there is a massive amount of adjusting that still needs to happen. You don’t want stocks at fair value as that is ridiculous, only crushed stock index prices make a good investment.

All the markets need is some “bad” numbers reported and this happy investor mood can turn sour pretty quick.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Update

 

On this daily chart, the Death Cross is still going to happen as the Nasdaq wanted nothing to do with the 50-day MA, and could not find support above the 200-day MA!  If the big bearish trend is true, then no amount of jaw-boning will turn the tide, even with the COT report below showing a small net long position. The bears will show us if they are in-control by taking out my wave 1 position Minor degree which still could happen this month.

My last Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation was in early September 2018 what at that time registered the most expensive ratio of 6.38:1. It takes 6.38 gold ounces to but just one unit of the Nasdaq which blows the old record of 4.94 gold ounces by a long shot.  Cheap would be 1.18, so there is a long way to go before this Nasdaq becomes cheap again. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has been hitting a brick wall a the 6:1 range, so that is a usually a big clue that this market is far too expensive to be a good long-term investment at this time.

This is only a very small net long position with this COT report, which is nothing to get excited about especially when this is one of the only long indices I have.

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NASDAQ Plunge Update!

 

This is the December contract which shows better when I use line type settings, but it also changes many of the wave positions.  At the top could be my first wave 1-2 in Minute degree which would make the October rally as the potential 4 waves in Minute degree which brings us to a potential wave one in Minor degree. I will need to make adjustments as this bearish phase develops, as there is more than one index that shows a high wave 1-2 pattern. Nvidia Corp has crashed over $100 already as demand for Bitcoin mining has faded fast. Fear of just about anything is pushing the markets down, besides the Fed is creating a worldwide, liquidity issue.

The Midcaps are much further along the slippery slope already and they may also be ready for another rally. Short term I may be a bit bullish but longer term a huge bear market is coming if we like it or not!

What really irks me is that the talking heads are saying to stay in the markets for the long term. This is nonsense if age is not taken into account. Many boomers that were invested in 2007 got wiped out and many have never recovered. Even early Gen X start to retire in 2029, and many will never have enough time to recoup up to 70% losses!

You can check your older relatives and I bet few if any can say, “Yes I retired at the top of the stock market with my mutual funds intack”.

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Nasdaq Intraday Chart Crash Update!

 

The Nasdaq peaked 3 days ago and since then the Nasdaq has reversed, and is now heading south. Any new record high can always be the “Last” record high for the year. This would be a “B” wave peak in Intermediate degree which is part of an expanded pattern for Cycle degree wave 3.  I will keep these updates a bit short, but all my indiceies I cover seemed to have turned south in the last few days. The bears attack from above, as fundamantals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes. In general, markets act to the opposite of fundamentals, as the majority all tried to bail out in late 2009. The majority cannot see crashes or bull markets coming, but with the huge “Boomer” demographic shift in effect, you can bet there will be deflation on our future. This will take until 2022, when I expect Cycle degree wave 4 to bottom, which is the same length of time the markets crashed for in the 1929 and 1932 bear markets.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart: Pushing Higher

 

 

October started out rather boring, but this may have changed this morning, as gold, silver, and USD jumped together.  The Nasdaq broke just a bit higher, but how long that will last is next to impossible to tell. I will keep this expanded pattern alive after any major peak has happened until I see how the “C” wave decline starts to look like.

Folks, I’m not looking for a simple bull market correction as a Cycle degree bear market is coming. “Stay in it for the long term”,  has been the constant theme, but would you, if a 1929, 2008, type of a crash was coming?  Stock markets and the solar cycles have a love-hate relationship with each other, that before the solar cycle ends, there is usually a big stock market crash or decline. The 1987 crash was about the same, but the 1987 crash was just a Minor degree crash. 2022, is my target year for a major bottom, and this should coincide, with the end of solar cycle #24 and the start of Solar Cycle #25.

I will be keeping my updates short for now, but this market would have to slice right through my bottom wedge, by a wide margin so there is no hope of the markets breaking any record highs for 2018, again.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Cycle Degree Wave 3 Review

 

Since my last update I had to move my “C” wave in Minor degree up as I was still early by a week or so. The last peak was September, 3, 2018 at the 7720 price level. The real peak where I have to count from, was way back in January of 2018.  I’m sure we can hear the crying how I can’t count this way, but I see so many of these that ignoring them is not an option.  It is the “C” wave that gives it away, and we have to wait until the end of the month to see if the Nasdaq 7720 price level holds.

In a fit of madness stops or options get triggered which still could spike the Nasdaq higher, but I think the markets are running on fumes. Just scanning all the commercial COT report positions, there are vertualy no net long positions anywhere. Painting a bullish picture in stocks, will show you how the majority of wave analsyts can fall into the “mood trap” just like any other human does.

See all that empty space below our present high? What do you think is down there? Nothing but PUT options and protective sell stop orders, and when they get hit, all those bulls will turn into instant bears.

Stocks also follow the 30 year cycles but they sure can crash together like they did in 2008!

The “C” wave decline in Intermediate degree could be fairly steep but will only be obvious after it has formed.  The Nasdaq is the odd ball here as it seems to have pushed this “C” wave further than all the others. This will be last of the Internet bubbles in a long time, as the internet has matured and we don’t need to invent a new smart phone.

Readers have to make up their own minds if things are, “Different This Time”. Sure it’s different, but so was 1929, 1987, 2ooo, and 2007! Take our 2018 peak and count back 89 years and we get 1929! Ignoring the 30 year inflationary and deflationary cycles is not an option. T-Bonds have a 120-year cycle that started in 1981. (two 60-year Cycles).

We also have a rising wedge which every technical analsyt knows about, but only a few have the confidence to read them.

Once this turns then things can speed up, as panic will take control of the crowd, and no more record highs are produced. Add 3 years to our January peak and we coud see a bottom by 2022, so buckle up and watch all the bullish investment prices evaporate and disappear.

Gold, silver are pushing higher so money leaving stocks can flow into gold stocks in a flash, if the GDX holds it’s price level.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

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NASDAQ: World Record Intraday High Update

The Nasdaq, so far has topped out at 7486 and has now started another small correction or the Nasdaq stock party could be over. From here on any record high could be the last record high for 2018. A few are figuring out that this market is doomed no matter how much they spin the bull shit (BS) that it is a good time to invest. There is a huge deflationary crash and bear market coming that only a few might understand.  When stock prices deflate, and the gold price crashes together then this is a deflationary crash.

This has all happened before and even recently depending on if you can remember the 2008 crash.  For about 8 months “everything” crash together ending at a bottom for gold in late November. Stocks bottomed in March 2009. The exact same forces are at work, where we are in the exact same position as the early 2008 top was.

This time in Cycle degree, stocks will join in with gold, but far more syncronized in the length of time. In otherwords, they can all crash together until gold crashes below $500 again. Mention $500 gold to a gold bug, and they lose it.  There are only a few big Nasdaq names that are still pushing the Nasdaq higher, so those 5 big names would be critical to watch for early exhaustion or speed deceleration. The choppy waves are there, the commercial traders have large short positions on the Nasdaq while the speculators are skewed to the long side.

Does it look like the commercials are jumping for joy and in a bullish position? No, the red at the bottom are the commercial short positions, while the lite bar graph on the top represents the large speculator long positions. It is the large speculators that are always wrong at the extremes, except the talking heads always talk about what the speculators are doing not what the commercial dealers are doing.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio also supports my bearish views as today it sits at a 6.1:1 ratio, which is the most expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have ever calculated.

I guess it is also a good time, to post a very professional description of the warning signs of a market top.

 

 

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NASDAQ Hits New Intraday Record High!

This morning the Nasdaq pushed to a new world record high at just over 7301. The way the Nasdaq has been soaring the bullish traders are seeing some gains. To capture those gains traders have to sell or close off their trades. Of course the markets will do it for them as they will panic once a reversal starts to take place. We need more to tell us that this party is over. That may take until the February bottom of 6300 is completely retraced, as some little correction will not do anything.

I have to keep my updates short this morning but will try to update more later today.

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NASDAQ Intraday Rally Update

So far the Nasdaq keeps pushing higher and I would like to see it go a bit more and completley clear my previous wave 3 peak in Minuette degree. Any price above 7000 would help to complete this 5 wave run. After every 5 wave sequence a trend change is due, and how big the next move will be depends on what that 5 wave sequence is attached to. In this case the 5 wave sequence could be ending a wave 2 peak in Minor degree which would retrace the entire April/May bullish phase. All 2018  price support bottoms will get retraced,  if this rally is just another bear market rally.  All other indices are also gyrating and having difficulties in going higher.  With crude oil crashing, its just a matter of time before all the other markets start to join in. In 2008 everything crashed together including all the oil and gold-related assets, which sure seems to be the same set-up now happening in 2018.

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NASDAQ Mini Rally Update

The Nasdaq will always give us the gears as it seems to walk to a different drummer at times. The potential Cycle degree wave 3 peak did not peak until early March.  The recent pattern suggests another correction is in effect with a little 4th wave in Minuette degree just completing this morning. The markets could implode as well as it seems to be a Gold/Oil/ USD/stock connection running. In the 2008 crash everthing joined in the bearish decline, so there is nothing to stop it from happening again this year.

Buying on the dips will just get you killed, as the majority have no clue in how big this impending bear market will get. All price support to 6200 must get retraced and that is just to get us warmed up for the bigger bearish phase that still needs to follow. The majority are all in the bullish trap as they practice, “no sell high” strategy. Only a very small percentage of contrarians have this skill and experience of buying low and they need lots of time to put their capital to work. Until insiders show a clear track record of them buying their own shares back, this market will go down sooner than it shoots to new record highs again.  When companies practice a, “buy back” program then this is usally a bad sign as it throws away cash at extreme tops, and it’s a desperate attempt to keep their stock prices high. Buying their own shares back with company profits is also a clear sign they know not what to do with their company cash pile.  The same happens when they start paying dividends, paying dividends is also a sure sign that the company has no ideas or projects, and when the do pay dividends that company also starts to decline.  Only the rich can play this game, as they are the only ones that can afford these prices in the first place.  Any average Joe or Jane will get wipped out if they follow the herd and try and beat the markets.

If you play the same game as the majority do, then our end results will also be what the majority get.  The last greatest fool will be left holding paper that is falling in price, with many buyers nowhere near to be seen. Only the emotional traders are left playing this game, and they are the first to bail out when they start to see red in their invesment accounts.

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NASDAQ Intraday Review

The Nasdaq had a very different time period for a major peak which was hidden or masked by the bearish attention to the DOW and SP500.   Any Nasdaq wave count is not clear at this point as we still have too many wild gyrations. Summer is coming on which can produce very bearish moves. We do have to respect the Nasdaq as it can keep on giving us the gears in the short term.

From late April the Nasdaq has now only produced a 3 wave run, as wave 4 is still missing from this action. I switched to line type chart but it also changes the wave patterns, producing different wave counts all the time. In the short term I will be doing some cosmetic wave counting, but eventually the trend will start to smooth out, and when it heads south it will help to confirm a bigger bearish phase is in effect. Recent Commercial trader report does not show an extreme bearish situation, but more of a small bullish situation. This could turn more bullish as the real decline shows it’s true colors.

It makes no sense to spend so much time in intraday scale as for long periods of time nothing can happen. Nobody can take advange of intraday scale wave counts. It might take a week before a new posting is read 4-5 times, by that time it’s to late to take advantage of it.  The big and best moves happen at the daily and weekly chart scales when the majority are all “forced”  to switch directions.

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Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Review

The Nasdaq has been on a wild bullish phase the seems to have no end. Since the April bottom any impulse pattern we did have fell apart rather quickly. The Nasdaq may be getting ready to correct.and it can overlap right down to the bottom trend line.  I have many different wave counts in 5 of the stock markets I cover and it will take time to sort out.  A three wave rally is just starting to complete and it’s when I would suspect a correction, or even an ending.

The Cycle degree wave 3 position I do have, may still get evicted. At this time I’m not happy with any of my short term wave counts as it will take some time to sort out.  When all support (4 spikes) going back to February breaks down then we may have a better pattern to work with.

I’m not going to spend too much time on this as there still are too many alternates I can come up with.  I never try and post 2-3 alternates in one chart as I try to work one of them at a time. It’s always a process of elimination one wave count after another, which takes time to play out or fail.

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Nasdaq Intraday Decline Update

The Nasdaq hit a major peak in March before it decided to crash again. I have conflicting tops between the Nasdaq and the other 4 major indices that I cover, but I think the Nasdaq top is the real deal, and the top is a good place to start a bearish count down from. Notice that I have a small H&S pattern already completed, and if we are still in the bullish phase, the Nasdaq will  lift the right side of the invisible horizontal line dramatically. I will still keep the present decline as a Minute degree declining 5 wave sequence,but will adjust later on if my degree level is too low.

If the bearish scenario is true, then all popular support levels will get trashed.  Those that are talking about buying the dips don’t realize how big, “The Big Dip” will get.  At a bare minimum the Nasdaq will retrace the 4000  price level, which also puts the Nasdaq into the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

One lesser degree in a Cycle degree correction is a Primary degree, not the Intermediate degree bottom at the 4000 price level.  We have a long way to go with many twists and turns, but sooner or later the fog will clear and the basic shape of 3 simple corrections will take place. The triangle is my last choice as the solar cycle #25 will not allow it to fully play out. When solar cycle #25 starts to crank up, then all stock bears and bearish wave counts will get terminated.

Sure the bottom may still be three years away (2021) and the investors at that bottom will be the ones that have lots of dry gunpowder ready. (Cash)

Buying low at a market bottom is rarely done by the average investor, as they will be wiped during the “Big Dip” decline.

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Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Phase Update!

When markets go up the expert analysts turn bullish, and when the markets are heading down then they turn bearish. No matter what the direction they will find you a reason explaining why. The Nasdaq contains the biggest elephants in the room which suggests very large companies. I think elephants are pretty small compared to some of these “FANG” stocks which are more the size of the biggest T-Rex!  In January of 2018, all the indices recorded world record highs, never matched in financial history. This bull market top calls for a correction that nobody expects, with some analyst getting suspicious as to the staying power of this bull market.

The Nasdaq bearish phase has only started more than a month ago, so in order to help confirm a major bear market is coming, all major markets have to crash to new record  lows again.  Price is only important to the majority, but from an EWP perspective pattern is far more important. Yes, I use price projections as well, but you will see no prices posted in my charts.

Another little pop is still possible, but the declining pattern will be important to see that it contains no corrective moves. A grinding summer bearish phase would suit me fine, but only time will prove that true.

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Is Nasdaq Friday 13th Bad Luck?

End of the week, new moon, Friday 13th and a rising wedge doesn’t help in reinforcing a bullish outlook. This week the markets struggled trying to make headway and the rising wedge shows it.  This may only be a Minute degree wedge, but there are Cycle degree wedges as well.  When a falling Wedge develops, then this can turn into a very bullish reversal. Of course, if we abuse these wedges, then they lose their importance and meaning. Most of the Wedges are bear market related so any Cycle degree wave 3 top to a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom would be a Cycle degree Wedge. Just about every crash in history showed one type of a wedge. The 1937 to 1942 Cycle degree wedge is a prime example what large degree wedges can do.

The initial rally that started last week can be counted as a wave 1 but this is also a typical “A” wave move in zigzags. So far the high peak could contain an expanded flat so I will have to flip back and forth between two patterns until the bigger pattern becomes more clear. As rough as some patterns are when starting out, they do have a tendency to clear up after a while.

When the markets have crossed the line from a bull market to a “huge” bearish phase traders have to change all their thinking instantly. Obviously we are far from that situation as market bulls have just called a market correction bottom. Just goes to show that the majority of experts still think they are on the bullish side of this market.

In a bear market good news no longer pushes the markets to new record highs, the opposite happens at the end of a bearish move when bearish market news no longer pushes markets lower. With small counter rallies, this is much harder to detect, but if we are not looking then it makes little difference, as we would be in another bear trap.

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Mini Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Phase update.

The Nasdaq has been marching to a different drummer again,  and in the last 5-6 trading days the Nasdaq has been in a bullish phase. I would love to see the Nasdaq break out a bit higher and as I post it seems to be doing that. Any of these inverted zigzags can turn into a running pattern, which many may call a “Truncation”. There are lots of examples out where zigzags are cut short, but I will call them a running pattern before I call any “Truncation”. There will be constant adjusting that I will be doing until the bigger trend becomes more clear. The Nasdaq peaked last month and if the bigger trend is in place, then that peak of the Nasdaq will be the high price point of 2018.(7200) No more record highs for a very long time.

In a bull market, we get consistently higher lows which are Elliott Wave, 3 wave patterns. This process works in reverse as well as a bear market will produce consistent lower lows and lower highs.  Since the March peak that is exactly what the Nasdaq and others have been doing. Jawboning a bear market back into a bull market will not work, except on a short term basis. Once this present rally starts to wear thin, then we should see all the markets make new lows again.

Many are complaining about how volatile the markets have been, as they have never seen so much volatility! All I can say is “get used to it” as that is what happens when markets start to make a big trend change. Those that are already out can sit back and watch this market crash, until it becomes over sold again.

Any big forecast how deep a bear market can go is depended on what degree of a peak the markets are all at. So far they expected just a 10% correction, but now this number is changing as well. Some are now calling for a 40% correction, but a 60% correction number has also been used. All the forecasts in the world for a bear market bottom will mean nothing, if we don’t know what’s going to happen after the bear market finishes.

At a minimum the Nasdaq has to retrace the 4000 price level first, and this may only be a temporary resting spot until another leg down starts.

Bull markets end when nobody expects them to end just like bear markets will end when nobody expects them to end. This has happened so many times in financial history that it will not be any different this time. When it comes to the stock markets human emotions never change as fear, joy and greed  has been around since the caveman days.  A new generation of investors do not do any homework in studying financial history, and many of them didn’t even experience the bear market of 2008, so those investors are in for a big surprise.

Mark Zukerberg’s testimony increased his net worth by 3 billion dollars during the time he sat in his chair, while social media supported Zukerberg!  In the long run Facebook is still besieged with problems like the majority of tech companies are having at this time.

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Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2000-2018 Review

One of the most powerful patterns that we can find is what they call a “Wedge” in conventional technical analysis. A wedge can have a rising bottom and a falling top which eventually compresses the chart after which it has no choice but to explode and then soar.  The earliest we may have spotted this wedge , and take advantage of it, is in late 2008.  Sure, it’s all in hindsight, but unless we know what a wedge is we will never look for them in the first place.

For many years I have grappled with the 2000-2002 decline as it looked so much like an impulse, but this impulse did not fit anywhere. Maybe because it was not an impulse, but part of a triangle decline, ending with a running “E” wave. Running flats are common, and even zigzags do contain shortened “C” wave. I don’t like to call waves “truncated” as that is an excuse to not count anything. From my perspective the DJIA from 1937 to 1942, contained a wedge that forecast the huge Cycle degree wave 3 which may have ended March, 13, 2018.  I also have several large scale wedges that all indicate a huge bull market will come in the future.  Sure, I can change the wave count, but in the end this wedge will remain for all of financial history.

I only use parallel lines and I use the top rising trend as my base, then I create the same angle from the record bottom of early 2009.  The top trend line contains 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, so when the Nasdaq crashes and takes out the bottom trend line I also will be moving by a minimum of one degree. Cutting the bottom trend line I would also be finishing a potential Intermediate degree correction.  The 4000 price level  is not deep enough, if we need a 3 wave, Primary degree correction.

The gullible are brainwashed to buy on the dips and last month saw another huge one week share buying madness!

Investors just pumped the most money ever into stock funds for 1 week

You have to ask, “Buying on the dips for what?” Once a new low has been established, then all those “Dip” buyers will start to lose their capital base. All present dip buyers clearly tell us that they think that they are in a bull market. They think that another huge bear market will never come as that is old ancient history. The majority of investors never take the time to do historical research and most of them believe the brainwashing going on at market peaks.

The majority of all wave analysts have been brainwashed into believing this SC and GSC myth, but since the 2000 peaks this has never been confirmed by anyone. Since the dotcom bust in 2000, there  has “Never”  been a set of 5 declining waves in Primary degree. Only the Nasdaq looks like it has a set, and it doesn’t fit into any zigzag.

The Nasdaq hit a 2018 high of about 7200, and this is also the time I look for the highest peak of the year. The short version is that investors will not benefit from buying on the dips this year, and it may take over ten years before they ever break even again. They may have to wait until the “Roaring 2020s” arrive.

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Nasdaq Intraday Crash: Showing Us The Way!

Do we still have lower highs since the peak of the Nasdaq?  That’s a trick question as we can get this in any decline! Because the Nasdaq broke to a new record low at bullet train speeds, We could get a violent reaction but 5 waves pointing in a direction is telling us there is more downside to come. The other indices will catch up, but small difference will happen, is when a big difference appears, then it always needs a second look. The Nasdaq  marched to a different drummer again, this time it was just to be the last index to top out.

There are only two trading days left this week, so more downside is an option, but wild swings will surprise us. This may all smooth out a bit more once the Nasdaq trend is more established.  Either way we are heading what the mainstream might call “critical support” will come at the 6300 price level. Critical support for what? A new phase in the stock bull market? I doubt it very much!

The only support important enough is the one just before stocks strike out into another 8 year bull market. Not until the majority hate stocks again will a new bull market hatch!  Now if only AMZN would crash! After a quick check  Amazon’s stock price peaked at $1617 and is now down $120. I will create an Amazon post, but also talk about the Gold/AMZN ratio.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record High Now Visable In The Rear View Mirror!

Finally the markets have started to succumb to bearish forces again. It started last week and now looks to carry on with its bearish trend until at least after the Fed announcement this week. The white elephants in the Nasdaq, like Facebook, also managed to execute a swan dive this morning.

I will also be forced to move my Cycle degree peak over, but I will wait on that until this decline starts to pick up more steam.  Those who have never done any historical stock market research will repeat all the mistakes of the past, thinking that markets can’t crash when the fundamental analysts paint us a rosy picture.  Hate to break it to you, but markets always end when the majority think it can’t. When those two words like “New Era” get regurgitated by all the parrots in the world, then the big party is over.

Back at the peak in 2000, the new era mantra was also repeated many times, so it’s nothing I haven’t heard or read about before.  In Britain and the USA it was called the “Canal Age”, until the railroads came along and produced the new age of train travel. When the majority call it a great new age, then it is usually over and a market crash ensues with recessions or even depressions. In 2007 they had no clue that a recession was coming, but it sure arrived in a hurry.

Then, under the worst fundamental conditions, like in late 2008 the market turned by early March 2009 and then soared for another full 8 or so years.

The other indices have to follow and until they make a clear effort to join the bearish party, I use caution just incase we have another fake correction.

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High Flying Nasdaq Getting Too Close To The Sun!

At the rate that this Nasdaq keeps pushing higher, Investors should be careful not to get their wings singed. Yesterday the Nasdaq peaked at about 7210 before it started into another decline. I show two trend lines, but they mean little as the markets spill well outside the top trend line. Due to the choppy pattern most of these patterns do not form between pretty trend lines, but they act more like zigzags.

I believe the run that started from the middle of last month is all part of a bigger diagonal 5th wave move, but we need more evidence that a bigger decline is coming.  The earliest sign would be when the bottom trend line gets sliced in two.  After that we  have two price bottoms that need to get completely retraced.  The February 9th bottom of 6200 ended with a set of diagonal 5 waves. We may have to wait until the Nasdaq falls to the February bottom, before we get all excited about the beginnings of a major bear market.

The longer this all takes to start, the steeper the angle of the decline should happen. Last month the solar cycle sunspot activity increased which also buys us more time before any early bottom solar cycle bottom.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio managed to squeeze out another new record, smashing up against the 5:1 barrier 4-5 times this year already.

This acts like a brick wall on the bigger scope of things, and it will do the same when we get to the next major bottom. Just like the Nasdaq gave us a different 2000-2002 crash, this time I’m sure that the Nasdaq is going to give the wave counting crowd, surprises never encountered before. By charging too a new record high, the Nasdaq is now walking to a different drummer, again.

This forces me to  start looking for a new set of 5 declining waves in the coming few weeks or so.

The SP500 and the Dow 30 are still well behind the Nasdaq, and Trump would have to pull off an amazing feat, to get those two to catch up to the Nasdaq.

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Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Update

Since the Nasdaq bottom on February, 9th the Nasdaq turned in a very bullish performance, that has gone above and beyond any wave 2 rally. The Nasdaq is now about 100 points away from breaking a new record high, so until this proves otherwise, I have to keep an open mind that a wild spike could still push the Nasdaq higher.

I’m confident that the 2015 correction, was an Intermediate degree wave 3-4, (Expanded). Wave 5 in Intermediate degree did extend  which makes it about even with wave 3 in Intermediate degree. Only 2 out of 3 sets of 5 waves can extend, with wave 1 always been one of the shortest. If it looks like wave 1 is long and or extended then chances are extremely high that it is just an “A” wave.

From the bottom of wave 4 in early 2016 I can fit the entire bull run into a diagonal but I had to move wave 3 in Minor degree up.

All the other indices I cover have to play catch up to the Nasdaq, but we know that they have done this in the past. If something has happened once, then I look for and use these moves with all degree levels. We only have 3 trading days left before the end of the month, and on the 1st we also have a full moon! Any moon cycles can be turnings, but they are unreliable in the direction they want to turn.

The longer any  bullish phase carries on, the shorter our time period to the end of solar cycle #24 will be. This could happen in late 2020 or 2021.  Overall, we could still get a 3 year bear market, but anything shorter is not a problem. What has to happen is that the scientists that track the solar cycles tell us, that solar cycle #25 is poking through in the northern latitudes parts of the sun. Solar cycle bottoms are bear market and wave count “Terminators”, and it will happen again with the start of solar cycle #25. The solar poles are not flipped until the magnetic polarity of the sunspots also change.

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Mini Nasdaq Comes Back From the Dead.

The Nasdaq plunged to record lows on the 9th of February but came alive and then soared in a stunning rally.  Today is a new moon date, which in the past have produced some stunning reversals. There is never any guarantee of a reversal as it has never been reliable enough, to use on a constant basis.

What the media calls a 10% correction is just a Minor degree move in the language of Elliott Wave. That’s just a “Little Dip”  in a world where the “The Big Dip” can show up. A Cycle degree “Big Dip” can still take a few years, but many time markets have crashed just before the bottom when solar cycles arrive. This may take until 2020 or even 2021 but it sure will not be some obscure 600 year bear market.

Until all the 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, there will be “NO” SC or GSC degree bear market. It is sequential and mathematically impossible to be in a SC or GSC degree wave count, without all the Cycle degree peaks being found first.

Yes, the Nasdaq has a few quirks that produced a different pattern, but we can still use it as a 5 wave count since the 2009 bottom.

The counter rally was very powerful but most of that came from protective buy stops that were in place. Protective sell stops are piling up below present prices, and they sure are not “buying the dip orders”.

We could still see the markets rally a bit further, but sooner or later investors running with the bulls will become tired and drop out of the race. If they don’t drop out,  I’m sure the sharp horns of the bulls may change their minds.

Any counter rally like we are in, would get completely retraced, if the big bear market is going to come back and haunt us.

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Nasdaq 100 “Big Dip” Update.

The Nasdaq did not display a double bottom as it crashed well below the previous low, followed by a wild rally as well. We could be on the second set of a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, and a small third 1-2 wave may also show itself.  After that, any 5 wave structure will be harder and harder to see, but we would also be running out of degrees after a wave 4 in Minor degree has finished. This could take all of February to play out, so it’s not going to happen overnight.

Usually all 5 waves play out in a rapid fashion, but then this market will give us a hard time once an “A” wave in Intermediate degree has finished. There are still many variables that can happen, so until a new record low is achieved, this market can give us a hard time.

As I post the Nasdaq is pushing higher, but mid week can also be great reversal days.  Between the 5800 and 5600 price levels we could run into some strong resistance, so any 5th wave in Minor degree should be ending at that time as well.

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Nasdaq Intraday Downside Breakout!

The Nasdaq decline, we’ve had in the last few days, not longer fits as an impulse very well. I started to get some 3 wave moves, that work better as zigzags, so it’s better to switch to diagonal wave counting for now. There is the potential for a downside breakout situation to end at another “A” wave in Minute degree. We may have to wait until next week before this starts to play out, but there are many sell orders being stacked up below present prices, especially at any potential double bottom.

When the market has switched to the bearish side, then bad news should keep forcing the markets lower. Over time the “Bad news” will no longer work driving the markets down, but instead they will start to recover shortly after the “Bad news” comes out. This usually means we are going to be switching back to a bullish cycle.

With this market crash, fundamental analysts see no change in the fundamentals at all, so they remain very bullish on this market. Fundamentals don’t drive prices, but prices change fundamentals.

Predict a price crash when great fundamentals exist, and you will see the economic fundamentals change after the price change.  The fear of rate increases could be the new “fundamental problem”,  even though they already have known about the higher rates for months already. The biggest fundamental change is that Janet Yellen is “out” and Jerome Powell is “in” which happened on February, 5th, 2018

The Fed – Jerome H. Powell, Chairman

The markets had already started to crash as Jerome Powell stepped in,  so maybe the markets will hate what the new “Fed” still thinks it has to do.

All that money that was dumped into the markets in January 2018, has now been wiped out! Sent to a digital graveyard, in a puff of electronic smoke. The majority has no clue what’s going to happen in the next 2-3 years as they think just a simple 10% correction is going to happen and then the bull market will continue on its merry way.

Good luck with that, as in order for that to happen, we need the majority to hate stocks again. The public is still, “in love” with stocks so we are far away from any meaningful correction being completed. At a very minimum the Nasdaq should travel well below the 4000 price level,  and that’s just to get warmed up, as some simple minded 10% or 20% correction will not do it.

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Nasdaq Bubble Deflating?

After a little rally the Nasdaq has now turned down again. I’m looking for this trend to continue if we switched over to the bearish side.already. The majority are looking just for a correction as they have no clue on what is going to happen in the next few years. Bull market tops are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so it is very important that we have a single top that we can count from.  I will always start using Submicro or Micro degree as it is easier to change to a higher degree when we need to. After a few months or so the small degrees will go back into hiding and you would need an electron scanning microscope to see them.

Folks, the higher the index goes they start to extend and all the smaller degree levels start to show. The hobby and expert wave counters do the exact opposite as they keep adding higher and higher degree levels. Some still have Primary degree wave 3 ahead, which means they are about as bullish on the markets as they can get. 2015 was a 4th wave correction in Intermediate degree, which means there was one move left in Minor degree.

As long as they give you some long drawn out complex wave structure they can flip wave counts around with no consequences. They can turn the worst wave count in the world, to another new and improved version and claim to be right.  Flipping numbers and letters around with no idea what they mean is “cosmetic” wave counting which the majority of all wave analysts practice.

We could get a big Primary degree crash, and I bet the experts will still show you a bearish wave count, when in fact an “ABC” crash is about as bullish as I can get.

Over the years the EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool which is useless for the serious millionaire contrarians in the world today. If any wave count causes us to miss the biggest bull market since the depression, then this wave count has to be tossed out as soon as possible.

Sure the Nasdaq has a different pattern, but in the end it will also end at a Cycle degree wave 3 top.

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Nasdaq Intraday Record Highs Update: Still Going To The Moon!

This morning the stock bulls must have been hit with a tazer, as the markets jumped a bit. Well, this has been going for the full Month of January already, and it may last until the end of the month. I changed the wave count to a big zigzag, with what I show containing a long wave 1. I normally never count it his way, but in diagonal waves this could work as an ending diagonal as well.

The Nasdaq is just a bit short of 6980 which would be the number to beat. That could happen as soon as I post, but we should be setting up for another correction. We need this market to leave a nice vertical spike in the daily cash charts, as the weekly and monthly charts already have these huge spikes very visible.

We need a correction big enough so it can never come back and soar to record highs this year. The media will always focus on how much higher this market will go, but only a few talk about how low it can go.  Any 20% correction is the public definition of a bear market, but I know markets can correct 40% and 60%.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at a bit over 5.22:1 which means it takes 5.22 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. This 5:1 range has not changed all that much as it may be double topping as well.  One day this Gold/Nasdaq ratio will shift again where it could reach a 1:1 ratio. This still could take a few years, but until it does this market is overbought and very expensive.

If you’re not a contrarian then be prepared for the stock bulls to trample you as they run for the exits yelling,” Fire”

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Nasdaq Surges To A New Record High

This morning the Nasdaq and the other indices all seemed to hit new record highs. This could still go on an on but every new record high also calls for a correction. How deep or long the next correction will be all depends on the what wave position and the degree we are presently soaring too.  Since that 2015 bottom the markets have surged in one big move that had very small corrections in it. This is producing a vertical move that even the roaring 20’s can’t match. Even the DJIA has a vertical ascent with only small corrections. Eventually all trends come to an end, as bull markets plant the seeds of their own destruction.

When the worlds analysts are constantly blasting out the bullish hype to the rest of the world, “Who are they talking to”?  Only the emotional traders are playing this game and I’m sure the protective sells stops are all starting to bunch up below present prices.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is sitting at a bit above 5:1 which means it takes 5 Troy gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA. It has been rolling around this 5:1 ratio since December 2017, so it seems to have run into a potential ceiling. When it does reverse, the Nasdaq ratio will start to compress and eventually start heading back down to a 2:1 ratio.

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

A week or so ago, they found a huge problem in most chip designs and they have been scrambling to get some type of patches out to all the operating systems.  It is important that you take all updates as soon as they come in. Apple has already updated its iPhone OS and the Mac OS, but there may be more to come. All this just adds to the breakdown of fundamentals in the tech industry.

Chinese Workers Abandon Silicon Valley for Riches Back Home – Bloomberg

This exodus out of Silicon Valley takes some American made ideas and exports them back to China. They can become millionaires much easier than in the USA.

Bitcoin Could End Up Using More Power Than Electric Cars – Bloomberg

I laughed when I read about the power consumption used in Bitcoin mining, which just goes to show that power outages can wreck havoc in the tech sector.  Any wild CME from the sun also creates power outages, so this tech world is highly susceptible, not just from hackers.

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Nasdaq Intraday New Record High Update

This morning stocks surged up again, as the Nasdaq touched 6690 at its highest point. This small degree 5th wave has widely overlapping moves, that suggest another diagonal 5th wave is developing. It ended with a small spike so we will have to wait latter in the week to see if this peak holds. Sooner or later this January 5 wave sequence, has to correct.  Eventually, it should retrace the entire January rally, before another strong leg up can occur.

There isn’t that much action in the early part of the week, but I would expect things to change by Wenesday.

I have posted most of the 5 indices I cover with my largest degree wave count, and have the idealized version up as well. The bull market, we are tracking started in early 2009 and since then has been on a huge bullish phase that must also come to an end.

At this time any new record high will illicit a counter rally containing a set of 3 waves. Unless, we are ending a bigger degree phase, where stocks can move down with 5 wave patterns.  Longer term I’m very bearish even if another leg gets added on, as the smart money is not entering this stock market price bubble.

The longer the general markets take to pop, our time window to a 2021 bottom becomes shorter as well. Somewhere we would need to get a very steep drop to help speed the process up.

Stunning market declines produce equally stunning bull markets as this Nasdaq has generated about a 640% gain since the 2009 lows. Of course, if we were waiting for the Nasdaq to go much deeper in early 2009, then the bull market started without us. This was barely enough time to take a token position, never mind trying to disperse a larger net worth position that smart money has available. The EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool, that long term contrarians would never use. Big cycles are a fact of life and choosing to ignore them will be detrimental to our investment accounts.

Solar Cycles drive the business and expansion cycles on earth, and it wasn’t until solar cycle #23 ended until stocks turned and headed north again. By 2021 we should have started solar cycle #25, which will produce another 8 year bull market. Anyone caught with a bearish wave count at that time will get their wave counts shredded, leaving the surprised empty handed again as a new leg starts back up.

It matters little how bearish of a price bottom we may get by 2021 but the next big bull market will leave that Nasdaq 6690 price level in the dust.

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Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

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