Tag Archives: Elliott Wave Mini DJIA

DJIA Intraday Rally Update

 

I looked at all the peaks of the markets that I cover and there is a good case that can be made that the expanded flat was just a diagonal wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree.  Sooner or later the markets will head in the direction it wants, but it should not soar to new record highs. Bullish moves this fast have nothing to do with fundamentals as it is more likely that the “Fear Of Missing Out” and buy stops getting hit is the main cause.

With a new location of the Cycle degree peak Wave 3, we would be starting a new set of impulse waves as well. There is no Market Vane Report for the DJIA but they do have the SP500 and the Nasdaq. Those reports are not at any extreme, and matter of fact is one of the most boring reports I have seen. Even the previous Market Vane Report was starting to get boring. Extreme readings is what I’m looking for, and I didn’t see any at this time.

Most commercial hedger readings were net short but I suspect they added to their long positions in the last few days.  I will not find out until Friday nights reports are published.

I’m still bearish long term but in the short term, the markets can still go up!

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DJIA Intraday Crash Update: No Rules In A Bull And Bear Fight!

 

It looks like the markets are resuming their larger trend if we all knew what that large trend actually is.  This is my third big stock market crash I am actively tracking and it is also the third peak that has to have a wave position to it that fits. Most markets I am tracking have an expanded pattern to them which ended October 3, 2018. The real top ended in January of 2018, just about 10 months ago.  I know how much the wave counts will distort every outlook if we keep ignoring any expanded tops. The January peak is my third wave 3-4 peak since the market bubble top in 2000, and it should produce bear market conditions that will be worse than what the 2008 crash produced, but not as bad as the 1930’s depression.  1932 was my wave 2 in Supercycle degree, which will not end until we get closer to 2041.

In the short term, it could take until 2022 to play out, but we should also get another huge counter rally that not too many people will see coming, as they all think that the bull market has returned.

Gold reacted positively to this market decline, which may be a good sign for gold investors, but a “run” to safety is a human emotional move that will reverse just as fast because if stocks start to rally again, they will dump gold and gold stocks in a flash. The markets have never been tested with the world on “High Speed” data lines, where flash crashes could become normal. We have seen what high-speed computer trading has done in the past, and the FCC is powerless to do anything about it.

I have flexibility when counting down the start to this bear market, but sooner or later real fear will take-over then all the analytics in the world will not work, nor make any sense.

All those that are calling to, “Buy on the dips”,  do not know how big this stock bubble actually is. This market should have a Primary degree counter rally coming, which is when I will become bullish again.

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Intraday E-Mini DJIA Rally Update

 

I think this market rally is just another bear rally, and it could be coming to an end this week. We had 3 moves that overlapped each other which are signs that the market is also going against the larger trend.  We are going to run into many of these types of rallies, but we may not be at my anticipated wave 2 in Minor degree at this time. Yes, we did get a great spike to the downside, which can happen at any major bottom, but they also show up, when we only have a correction.

Today the DJIA made a vertical move to the upside, so that is looking good for a reversal as vertical moves like this cannot be maintained for very long.  Hopefully, we will see more downside by the end of this week, and a new record low will certainly confirm it.  Any support we presently do have is just a temporary rest stop.

You can bet that there are large amounts of stop-loss “Sell Orders” below present prices which can get triggered,  like what happened between the 9th and 10th of October. If any dips get too large, certain safeguards can kick in so don’t expect a 1929 stock market crash to happen all in one day.

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Markets Take a beating: DJIA Intraday Record High Update

 

This record peak that the media has beat to death for months, has finally reversed. Just a “correction”? Sure, a Cycle degree correction that could see the DJIA crash down to 7100! Is that the type of a correction you were looking for?  What this peak contains is an expanded top which would be the lead-in to an “A” wave bottom in Primary degree. After that bottom gets confirmed, then the rest of the pattern will just look like a giant zigzag. 5 waves down in Minor degree is what I will be looking for, which would finish the “C” wave crash that has started. Moves like this can extend beyond reason or beyond what anyone expects at this time.  I target 3-degree levels higher than Cycle degree and 3-degree levels below Cycle degree, and until Cycle degree wave 5 is completed, the largest corrective degree I can have is Primary degree.  Many other asset classes have already hit a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom, but the markets are still 3-4 years from doing that. 2022 would be the target date.  You will get a few guys that will constantly fill you in why the markets are heading down, but they can use the same excuse or reason when the markets go up.

Still,  we need to give it all a bit more time and distance to make sure the markets mean business this time.

 

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Mini DJIA 2007-2018 Review

Many are waiting for the DJIA to break out into new record highs as this correction in a bull market is just about over!  Any new record high can happen but this could also mean that a potential expanded pattern is at work.   When this turns then it can happend very quickly where there will be little time to react.

What we are looking at is a potential wave 3 peak in Cycle degree and the impending correction could still take 2-3 years to play out. Cycle degree in stocks and a Cycle degree in gold is pretty hard to understand but that is what we are facing in the next few years. President Trump is already peeved with the FED rate raising policy, and I  agree. The FED is fighting an old war taking data from lagging indicators, like they always do.

The big threat is deflation and not inflation. Gold, oil and the stock markets also crashed together in 2008 which was one of the first warnings that deflation is going to rear its ugly head. Back in 2008 the USD was hated by everyone as they could not run fast enough out of the US dollar. Of course the US dollar had other plans as it soared while everything else crashed.

If in the rest of 2018 stocks and gold sync up, then there is a very high proability that they can sync up for many years.  Nobody sees this starting to happen, but it has all happened before, in 1920-1932. The big difference between then and now is the level of degree. 1929-1932 was a SC degree wave 1-2 crash while in 2018 we are one degree lower at Cycle degree wave 3. Any deflationary pressures will not be as bad as the 30’s, but it should be worse than what the 2008 crash produced.

Warren Buffet keeps buying Apple stock at world record highs, and is single-handedly keeping the markets on a bullish path.

Only the rich can keep playing this game now, as they own 80% of all assets. Those that are sitting on static assets as the enjoy monthly gains, do no work to earn those gains. Real estate will be one of the biggest losers as high real estate prices serves no one. All it takes is a small liquidity crisis from anywhere in the world, and people will be forced to liquidate as they are all caught in a bull trap.

Stocks are now more than twice as expensive as they were in 2000 but most investors are oblivious to this fact. Investors playing with bubbles do not see themselves in a bubble, or worse yet, they think they can escape just in time.

At a minimum we should get back to 2015-2016 lows, where we may find temporary support as well. Ultimately the bottom support line will never hold as the markets could see a 70% or more crash.

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DJIA Weekly Chart 2009-2018 Review

By any metric you want to use this inflationary world is going to come crashing down and investors have no clue that it’s about to start happening this year. I have many in-house indicators as well that nobody gets to see except for, one on one clients, that have paid me some sort of consulting fees. There are no real limits to consulting fees, if your good.  I would be crazy to give out any investment advice, as it is clear to me that investors always get burned. 2015-2016 saw a nice correction which was the 4th wave in Intermediate degree. Any large degree 4th wave is also a warning that one more bullish phase is coming but that will also be the last chance for stocks bulls to make any money. The majority never win at this game as they always go down with the ship made out of paper!

At this time I can already see that the gold sector and the stock sectors are going to sync up, and it should be more obvious by the end of this year around the November 21st

date. This is a best guess scenerio, but if it comes close, then the DJIA will also rally with gold for the entire bearish counter rally to come in 2019. If the DJIA comes to a rest at the 15,000 price level it would only be on a temporary basis at best, lasting into 2019.

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DJIA Intraday Turning And Crash Review!

http://www.etf.com/sections/monthly-etf-flows/etf-monthly-fund-flows-july-2018

 

Investors poured $26.8 billion into stocks last month, and this month they are sitting on a Death Cross at this 90 min intraday scale. They are investing when the markets are at world record highs never seen before in history.  Investors are putting money into the markets just down from a historic Cycle degree wave 3 has already peaked.

Talk about brave investors buying on the dips. This kind of a move always coincides with a major top, and once they realize that the DJIA has crashed to 15,000 then we should hear news about funds flowing out again. We are in such a big inflated stock and housing bubble that nobody can afford anything decent to even rent in.

This has all happen before just in a different time period. Gold has finished a 30 year silver/gold mania peak n 2011, and it is far from finishing it’s correction. This is just the 90 min Death Cross set-up, as I have more Death Crosses than I can count! This is my third stock market crash I have called, even though my degree levels were of the charts!

There is a time to invest, and a time to sell and trade, and this record high is not my idea of smart investing.

Apple still has to flop as the rest wil drag everything down. No Little $1000 phone will stop that from happening. I love Apple products as I do all my work on my second iMac.

If you don’t think that the markets will crash then just spend a few hours and research everything about the world wide fertility crash that has been going on since the 1950’s.

I use my own indicators that I have developed over the years, and it is all based on gold and its ratio. I might have 10-15 of these ratios in a book and my record high expensive ratio for the DJIA was about 17.24:1. This means it took 17.24 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW. This record has been blown out of the water, as this morning the Gold/DJIA ratio hit 21:1! Yikes!

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Reversal?

I’ve come to the conclusion that investors don’t care about the EWP or don’t use it that much because it is too cryptic.

It’s the traders that might use it most often as that is about all that people that will make money in this bear market that nobody expects. There is going to be a rude awaking folks, and if you try to figure out in which direction this market can go then I will tell you a fundamental truth that nobody will tell you.

Stock investors are sitting on a time bomb called a Death Cross and they do not know it, Yet!  Gold also made a trip down this morning and downside break out is near. The stock market could follow as this has all happened before.

My Intraday stock updates are going to be reduced as I will spend my time with the gold crash and the short trade.  Please do not waste your time to figure out what fundamentals still apply because you can’t.  If you are not a contrarian then you become the victim and my wave counts don’t want you to vecome the victum as this market will crash as we go into the summer and fall.  Chances are extemely high at this point, that it looks like gold and stocks are all going the same way.  With nearly the same wave count.

When I see something like this being setup it can fit with my wave counts or it has to be dismissed. It has no impact on any of my wave positions so it has a high chance of happening. We will find out when gold crashes below $800, as the DOW should not be too far behind to reverse as well.

My gold wave counts are now being tested 24 hours perday, as long as I’m in any positions long or short.  Gold is in a Cycle degree bear market and so are stocks so I call this a pretty good correlation.

If this DOW rally is already a bearish rally then complete retracement of this move will happen with no exceptions.

Another big rule I use is that, “Fundamentals will never tell you the right things at the extremes”  and in old futures traders lingo they call it  them “Funny-Mentals”. Markets will always do the opposite of funamentals and if you think that is not true then do your homework . Did the fundamentals in early 2009 tell you that the biggest stock bull market was comming?  Did you miss that bull market because you listened to the fundamantal bullshit or did you see it as one of the greatest buying opportunity of your life?

Sooner or later this market will start to roll over and then the rest will become history. If investors forget the past then they are doomed to repeat all the same mistakes of he past. This is no longer a market to invest in but it will be the traders paradise.  The ones that feel comfortable in trading up (long) or down (short) will be the winners.

 

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DJIA Intraday Gyrations Update!

The DJIA keeps heading south, which the Global DOW is also confirming.  It’s sad to say, but stock investors have no clue in what is going to hit them, as trade wars may be the least of their worries. The majority of it is all about the currencies inverse to the US dollar that are imploding!  This means deflation is in our future not inflation.  Stocks and gold “deflated” in the 2008 crash, so to think that it can’t happen again is very short term thinking.  We are going into a huge bear market that still may last three years before a brand new bullish phase can even start.  March is always a good time for major tops and October and November are always good months for bottoms.

It will be futile to think some new bullish super phase is coming. That dream is fading fast and you will see analysts scrambling to come up with all the bearish reasons why the markets are heading down. In bear markets a 70-80% decline is not unusual from an EWP perspective. The majority will think this is a crazy notion, but its very normal from a Cycle degree perspective.

I expect this bearish trend to continue, with a few surprises thrown in to keep us from falling asleep at the switch. Any market action is “always right”. It is our subjective opinions at the extremes that’s always wrong. Cash is “King” when world investments meltdown. $100 trillion could disappear in electronic smoke, which means “money” destruction will happen. $100 trillion is about 1/3 of total world US dollar asset values.

I wish for a Great July 4th in the USA, as I will take a bit of downtime this week as well.

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Quick Intraday DJIA Update

This is the September contract and in it we see far more violent moves than what the standard DJIA index will give us. By the looks of what I see is that the DJIA is still heading south, but it will also get closer to some key previous support price levels.  If there is more to this decline than meets the eye, then any support price has no hope of holding. The majority love to analyze everything using “Price”. Pattern pulls far more weight than any price forecast will do as the markets are controlled by the wave structure not by the price structure.

One example of this is, did the “price” of the bear market low in 2009 gave you a clear signal that a huge bull market was coming? Not a fricken chance folks. Even all the expert wave counters that always deal in the price of an asset class, didn’t see the big bull market coming.  So, are all the wave analysts going to see this next bear market coming? Sure a few will, but many still have super bullish wave counts. They will constantly flip numbers and letters around, add a bunch of question marks to the charts, and then they can always claim to be right. The Nasdaq has squeezed out another new record high while the DJIA is heading south. Talk about marching to a different drummer or what! It will clear up, but that still may take some time.

Buying on any “Dip” is going to be financial suicide if we don’t understand the size of the “Big Dip” that is coming.  Any market can correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and can even go lower like the DJIA did in 2009.  The only so called safe trade would be if we catch wave “A” in Primary degree. By that time the DJIA bears will be in a trap and any rally will force them to change directions. There is nothing as powerful as when the entire herd has to change directions, as they scramble to get out of their short positions.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Chart Review

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These market gyrations have been going on long enough keeping any realistic wave counts in the dark. Short term anything can still happen as I’m not going to rule out anything until all the price support we see above, has been completely retraced.  When that happens then we know that the rallies in the last 3-4 months have been nothing but a bear market rally. I’m not too concerned about the bigger bear market,  as we still have plenty of time left for a Cycle degree 4th wave correction to play out.  In a bear market we get rallies alright, but they are at a smaller scale. They still fool the majority as every rally they think is the start of the next bull market.

I will be using some “cosmetic” wave counting in the short term which only involves going back to the January peak. I started another 5 wave decline which still has a long way to go.  This looks like it could be in a 4th/5th wave pattern, which should also produce new record lows.

I doubt it will complete buy the end of this month, as it’s a race. Wil the DJIA push to a new record high before it pushes to a new record low?  I think the DJIA has a lot less distance to travel  before all support prices have been retraced.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Bull Run Takes A Break!

Running with the bulls can wear you out, so the bulls are taking a bit of down time as they run in the opposite direction. The question is how far south will the run? The May run sure looks like an impulse to run as 5 waves have completed.   Short term we are still faced with violent moves in both directions, blowing us a lot of smoke to keep any real trend hidden. Eventually the smoke will clear as violent moves (volatility) is very normal when a major change in trend is in progress.  We have a wedge forming as well, so the bottom base of  23,400 has been hit 4-5 times.

We know that “sell” stops are all piling up below this price level, so when that fails the bulls might just capitulate in the short term.  The DJIA is starting to look more like the SP500, but short term any run like this can just correct and resume its charge back up.  I think the short term 24.300 price level will tell us more as that is where I would expect another turning to occur. This may take all week to clear up. Today is the new moon day and many times this can produce strong reversals.  I just don’t see crude oil heading north as the DJIA heads south. In 2008 everything crashed together, oil, gold & silver, gold stocks and all the other indices around the world.  11 years later we are faced with the same setup, but also with many asset classes being at different stages in  any crash.

Gold and oil also made some major moves this morning so I will cover that today as well. I will keep most of my intraday chart analysis between Tuesdays and Fridays as I have to keep my attention on the big trends first.  Any wave analyst can produce you all sorts of numbers and letters giving you short term trade setups.  Short term trade setups mean nothing, if we miss the biggest bear or any of the big bull markets.  The reason short term day traders are everywhere, is because they have no clue what the big trend is that we may be in.

Like Jim Rogers says, ” A big bear market is coming” and it could take a lot of other asset classes with it.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Chart Update.

My Intraday market reports are going to slow down a bit. There is no sense for me to post intraday charts on the weekends including Mondays. During that 3 day time span I will keep my updates to Daily, Weekly and Monthly chart analysis only.  It is impossible to constantly post intraday charts when there has not been sufficient time for the wave pattern to play out. My concern is always the bigger picture which is Primary, Intermediate and Minor degree levels.

I will no longer use more than three colors to separate degree levels as 3 will do for anything we are going to use in a Cycle degree world.

In over 3 months the DJIA still has a downward bias that is very hard to ignore. The bulls are ignoring it as they are looking to buy on the “Dips”. Any analyst that calls for support is bullish in a bearish world which at this time still is the majority. “Value” hunters are having problems in finding opportunities which stands to reason when the markets have been at world record highs for 9 years!

As I post there was still upside left, that still could slice through my top trend line. All the bearish market moves so far, do not indicate that there has been a strong enough bottom to justify another huge leg up in some mythical moon shot still to come. Think of Cycle degree as the Mount Everest peak, SC degree as the moon, and last but not to be forgotten GSC degree, would be Mars!  🙄

At this rate it could take a long time before we know what pattern we are going to get first in a Primary degree bear market. For a flat the opening could just be a zigzag in Intermediate degree which would land on the “A” wave in the Primary degree than I’m after. I will try different wave counts without notice, as using a different wave count we are posting it for elimination!  In a few years time these intraday chart moves will blend back into the woodwork and you will never see them again.  All charts I post are filed on my home hard drive, and is also automatically backed up with a Time Machine setup, so I can go back and take second looks on most intraday charts.

So far it looks like a diagonal decline, but they can smooth out like gold stocks eventually did, so for the short term we could miss a few surprise counter rallies. Most of the time it’s just stops that are getting hit. Every trader has been brainwashed into using stops, so the sell orders are piling up below present prices.  I have three different patterns to work with so until they smooth out a bit some “Cosmetic Wave Counting” will be necessary. Eventually “all” cosmetic wave positions will be doomed.  Cosmetic wave counting is all about those experts that never have gone back in history, to double check the structural integrity of the wave counts.

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DJIA Intraday Plunge Update!

All calls for one more blast to the upside are starting to evaporate faster than ice dumped on hot pavement as we are approaching a downside breakout situation. For now in looking at a potential Minute degree diagonal pattern which can smooth out as more and more people become bearish on stocks. Retracing the entire April rally will happen if my bigger bearish scenario is in effect.  Pretty words and fundamental jargon will not stop a bear market once the peak has completed. This is my third big bear market I’m working, but still each bear market will be different than the other two bear markets. I will keep my updates a bit shorter than normal for a few days, but I dedicated my time and effort to map all 5 waves in Cycle degree, and at best we are only at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. My preliminary Cycle degree wave three peak count, is about 16 this week. Some are still a bit fuzzy but they will clear up in time. If I’m still short a Cycle degree peak, then I will count out a fringe asset class like cotton!  Working on 16 Cycle degree wave three peaks are more than what you will find anywhere on the Internet, bar none.

Ask yourself, “How many other expert wave analysts have even found one wave 3 in Cycle degree”? Not a single wave 3 peak in SC or GSC degree has ever been confirmed since the 2000 peaks.  If you think you see a good SC or GSC peak anywhere on the internet today, then I will find a sequential problem pretty quickly. Any SC degree bear market needs a very specific wave count to get confirmed as there are always three sets of simple corrections we have to deal with.

Our 5 wave bull market must be sorted out to what degree it is in,  as this is critical to determine where we are in the bigger picture. There can be no room for alternate discussions as being out by just “one” higher degree or one lower degree will fail.

Short term, things can always go sideways or swing wildly in both directions as that is the sign that a trend change is taking place.

At this time I have several different bearish wave counts between my 5 core indices, but they could also clear up or smooth out some in the coming years.

This May I’ll be starting my third year with this blog and last month saw the highest pageviews I have ever had! Over 71,000 pages were viewed in one month, which puts this blog on track for a million pages viewed by the end of 2018. Needless to say I’m impressed by those numbers and every single visitor deserves an extra big, “Thank You” from me.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Gyrations Review

Next month we will be starting out the 4th month of this so called correction.  Many are still calling to buy on the dips because this market is going to the moon. Oh Really? We’ve heard all that before.   All those that have the “Buy on The Dip” mentality have no clue how big the “Big Dip” will actually be.

The bulls are all looking for a support price which also tells me that they have little understanding about how big the dip will be. There is only one dip I want to see and that is the “dip” that starts a new bull market.  Another 8 year bull market to be exact.  The way this bear market has started, still leaves too many wave patterns unanswered.   Sure, we also have a declining trend line, but the test will be if that top down trend line will hold. We may need all of May before we find out, because so far the market is doing a good job in fooling most of the wave analysts.

Elliott Wave analysts travel in herds just like any real world animals do. Three main groups come to mind. The Supercycle degree herd and then the Grand Supercycle degree herd. Of course  the most popular wave counting group is the GSC degree group, which are very easy to identify. Both groups do leave many of their 5th waves “Uncapped”. Any uncapped 5th wave sends a clear signal to the readers that they have no clue where they really are with no concept of Wave 1-2, 1-2, base counting.  Every, 5th wave we will ever run into, in the future must be capped, by “one” higher degree. Otherwise the wave count is incomplete and the Elliott Wave sequence is broken. In my Cycle degree world you can’t leave a single 5th wave uncapped, ever!

I plan on posting a page that will explain the 1- 2 wave, base counting. I have gone back to 1500 CE,  (Little Ice Age) and have labelled 7 “sets” of 1-2 wave bottoms already. 1500 CE is my base for the Submillennium Degree wave 2 position.

In the short term this market could keep going sideways, and the next thing you know, we will be at a “B” wave top in Intermediate degree!  If that happened then, the “B” wave top paints a picture of the rest of the bear market.  We are at a critical point as all support must crumble, if the bigger bearish trend is already in effect!

There are still too many options at this stage of the game, but I have confidence that it can get it sorted out, as the starting waves to many bear markets, can always be very fuzzy.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Review

The DJIA has finally succumbed to bearish pressure, but we could still see a violent counter rally at any time. The DJIA must trash all support price levels that you see on the chart above, if the decline is more serious than what the investing bulls thinks it is. This DJIA chart I am cheating a bit in that I’m also working it as a potential diagonal decline. This may smooth out once any decline starts to get recognized, but this is still too early to tell.

In the afternoon the DJIA dropped close to 700 points which is a pretty good vertical drop. Sure, we can draw a wedge from the bottom up and if this is as bearish as I think it will be that bottom invisible wedge line will not hold.  We do have 3 lower high peaks in this developing trend, and that indicates a bearish phase in progress.  I don’t want to abuse wedges and trend lines as they can be extremely biased most of the time. The DJIA saw its peak way back in January of 2o18 which may be the top for 2018 as well. Sooner or later investors will lose patience and when a group sees the same thing at the same time we get mini panic sell offs, like today.

At the top I have 3 sets of 5 waves that have terminated which “must” be stacked from the smallest to the largest, which in this case is Cycle degree wave 3.

My strict rule is that no 5th wave peak should be left uncapped, “EVER” because an uncapped 5th wave clearly tells me an analyst is just guessing or bluffing.

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DJIA “Big Dip” Update!

So far the DJIA has procrastinated in following through with any decline, and the fact I have an extra lower high also makes me suspicious as where the market is going in the short term. Long term I remain bearish as, “The Big Dip” I talk about is yet to come. Reading about how some investors are buying on the ‘Dips”, I start to shake my head and say, “What Dip”?   Buying on the dips in the worlds biggest financial stock market bubble in history would be a mistake if we have no clue as to the size of the real dip to come.  A Minor degree dip in a Cycle degree world is nothing if the DOW still has to fall below 16,000 or 8000!

I have mentioned that when you see “any” wave count where an expert or hobby wave analysts leaves the 5th wave peak without a “Cap”, then any wave count following this 5th wave, is just guess work.

This “Cap” must always be one degree higher, and leaving off this cap, sends a clear signal to me, that the wave analysts have broken the Elliott Wave sequence, and therefore they are making shit up. (Cosmetic Wave Counting)

Not capping a 5th wave break’s every rule in Elliott Wave counting, because once you see an uncapped 5th wave, then any wave count that follows is worthless information for us. If there was a bounty on any uncapped 5th wave you can find anywhere on the Internet, then  you would become a very rich bounty hunter!

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Mini DJIA Intraday Rally Update

The DJIA is on a different wave count due to the secondary peak being much lower than a potential wave 2 in Minor degree.  To call this secondary peak a running pattern is also pushing it, at least for the short term. Running, flats, triangles and running zigzags do happen, and they happen more frequently than most would expect. I don’t believe in calling something a “Truncation” (shortened pattern), when so many running patterns do occur. I’m working a Minute degree 5 waves down with a potential 4th wave peak still to play out. Any 5th wave decline could fall and stretch very deep and shock investors as the reality of a bear market starts to sink in.

Many investors have never experienced a major bear market so a deep 60-70% correction is unthinkable. First, they called for a 10% correction, then they were calling for a 40% correction with the latest call I read about was a 60% correction. (Fibonacci .618). Ok, when this happens then what? Is a 60% correction deep enough for a Cycle degree correction to complete?  At this time I doubt it very much. History has given us many bear markets, with the GSC degree wave 2 decline only lasting about 8 years. The SC degree crash from 1929-1932 only took 3 years to play out.  Cycle degree wave 2 took 5 years, and Primary degree wave 2 took another 5 years ending in 1974-75. I don’t see a Cycle degree correction (bear market) take longer than 3 years.

There are no fixed time lengths for any degree as we also have seen a 20 year Primary degree bear market in gold as well.  I love the Fibonacci sequence for turning times with 2021 being a full 89 years for the next potential bottom.  Even 1929 to 2018 is already 89 years long. The reason I focus on 2021 is because of a silent force when one solar cycle ends and another solar cycle starts. Solar cycle starts  will terminate all your bearish thoughts as another 8 year bull market should develop once solar cycle #25 kicks in.

The DJIA peak of 26,600 may be the high of 2018, and when investors realized their gains are pathetic or in the red and losing money, they will hit the sell button before they click the “Buy” button.

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DJIA Bullish Rally Update.

During the end of last month we can see that the DJIA pattern started to bunch up. That broke any rhythm the DOW had as this correction sure looks like a triangle. Yes, I do have some overlapping waves, but they can disappear and even smooth out some, once the bearish phase kicks in again. With this DJIA we have a secondary peak, which I will keep working as a wave 1-2 In Minute degree. It may look short but we know that 5th waves can extend dramatically and in a very short time period as well.

If you see another wave count, anywhere that has wave 5 in Cycle degree at the 2018 top, then this cannot happen, you need one higher degree stuck on the end of a 5th wave. A Cycle degree wave 5 peak, instantly puts the wave counter into the SC degree world and all the labeling must change as well. SC degree wave 3 for a peak will not fit as well because all the experts counted that back in the 1929-1932 bear market. Two SC degree peaks within 89 years is far too short of a time period to be real, but it sure fits better into my Cycle degree set of 5 waves, with wave 4 and 5 still far from being completed.

Give it three years before the end is near and then solar cycle #25 will shred any bearish algorithms that are still stomping around in the markets, at that time. Even algorithms will not stand up to the power of the sun!

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Mini DJIA Intraday Update: Bears Still In Control?

In the future, I will try and restrict my trend lines to only use  two or three lines, but they must be parallel in nature. The other set up lines I use you can call a  “Wedge” or Scalene or Megaphone.   Trend lines can be very subjective because I can paint you a different picture if I changed the angle of the bottom trend line.  At times trend lines are helpful so we can see the lower highs that are being formed. Right now the DJIA is stuck in the middle of the two trend lines and I would eventually love to see the bottom trend line get sliced in two.

I find it hard to call the March peak a running flat or even a running zigzag, so for now I will see how long this wave count will last. At this intraday scale, it’s not hard for the markets to soar well outside the trend lines, and when they do it usually calls for another degree change as well.

If you haven’t noticed yet, bearish news has attacked many of the big tech names which is a classic sign that we are in a bear market and it is also telling us that this bearish phase is going to take a lot longer to play out before a complete bullish reversal is being setup.  No, 10%, 20%, 30% or even a 40% correction, will clean up the mis-allocation of funds present in the markets. (Leveraged to the Upside) Different charts will give us different DJIA peak numbers with 26,700 being one of them.

Many are hoping for a return of the bull, but what if that January peak is the very last high of 2018? I don’t think investors are ready for a 2-3 year decline and sinking markets, watching their capital base erode as it evaporates into thin air. Sounds like Bitcoin to me! Anybody that has been fully invested at this extreme top will see their accounts get shredded and the majority of their paper gains will disappear.

The majority of wave analysts believe we are living in the age of SC and GSC degree and they will show you all sorts of SC or GSC degree bearish wave counting gymnastics. If the majority of wave analysts have finished this bull market with a wave 5 in Cycle degree, then they are in the GSC degree world already. Forecasting in a GSC degree world means nothing if GSC or even SC degree has “never” been confirmed.

I have already created a different bearish template decline which looks more like a 5 wave decline than the flat or a zigzag that I have been using. It hasn’t been posted yet, but I will post the template and Idealzed wave count at a later date.

The GSC degree wave 1-2 crash from 1834 to 1842 only took 8 years with a zigzag decline, the 1929-1932 SC degree zigzag wave 2  crash only took 3 years. The next wave 2 crash from 1937-1942 took five years.  They were all zigzags but they also differ in shape and degree. A zigzag in a wave 2 position usually spawns a flat or triangle in the wave 4 position as alternation between the two sets of waves is the rule not the exception. It still doesn’t completely rule out another zigzag, but the zigzag must be more complex than the 1942 zigzag wave was.

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Mini DJIA Intarday Update: How’s Buying On The Dips Working For You?

Investors just pumped the most money ever into stock funds for 1 week

Investors have been brainwashed to buy on the dips, and last month’s surge of funds clearly demonstrated this. All those that believe in buying the dips are convinced that this bull market is far away from ending. I’ve seen it all before as this will be my third bear market I will be tracking since the 2000 peaks.

These investors that are jumping in at the top of the biggest bubble in market history, will find out the hard way not to believe in the crap that analysts spew out on a 24/7 basis. When the media paints us a rosy picture for an extended period of time, then everybody in the world is already invested, and no one is left to get in, except for the stragglers. This bear market is going to be bigger and last longer than anyone suspects. At a bare minimum the DJIA 15,000 price level must get breached. That may only be stage one as even 15,000 is not deep enough for a Cycle degree wave 4, bear market.  The support we are going to get will only last for a short time. When we see choppy rallies, we know they are just bearish rallies and the trend will resume on its crash course heading south.  I have created a new template for this Cycle degree decline, but they have not been posted. In a big bearish phase, we will constantly see lower highs and lower lows which is the opposite of what happens in the bull market phase.

I’m counting from the secondary peak as it could fit into a running pattern, but will adjust later when need be. When the masses are pushing the stocks up, then I use one of my templates and have the bearish side all drawn. What I call “templates”  have no Elliott Wave numbers or letters on them, as it can be used for any wave degree that we need. Once I print out the template I count out all the waves with pen and paper to make sure the sequence looks good. Then I scan this 8×10 into my computer.

The bear market (big bull market correction) from 1937 to 1942 best works as a zigzag with a short “C” wave. This also created one wicked looking wedge.  All this  keeps my flat at the top of my list of corrective waves to come, and the only question is, how big any counter rally will be?

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Intraday Mini DJIA Update

For now I’m calling this a “truncated” “C” wave, which in reality can be part of a running zigzag. If it’s not, I know I will have to adjust my wave counts to include or exclude this secondary top. The Nasdaq has already pushed lower so I see no reason why the DJIA will not do the same.  I’m going to keep my updates shorter, but still want to cover the US dollar, Gold and oil.  The Gold ratios seem like many of them have been hitting a brick wall.  At 19:1 the Gold/DJIA ratio is about as expensive as we can get

This means it takes 19 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW from a record of 21:1 which is the highest that I have calculated. This ratio should compress in the years ahead until it no longer takes so many gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA.

For those traders that are looking for that mysterious “Support price”,  have to ask, “support for what?”  Support big enough to push the DJIA to 34,000, or just temporary support in an ongoing bear market?  By this time sell stops are piling up below present prices so any new downside will start to trigger them as well.

Yesterdays dark pattern in the chart looks like it was computer generated as the DJIA wasn’t the only futures contract where this happened. Among the 5 indices I cover, two of them are very different, so this will provide some unique wave counting challenges down the road. This has all happened before and only time can tell us if the bearish phase is going to carry on.  The start of solar cycle #25 will destroy all bearish wave counts, opinions and forecasts so I consider following the sun cycles extremely important. The sun cycles are responsible for the business cycle, as it sure was not the government that saved the markets in 2009, it was the start of solar cycle #24 that killed all the bears.

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Mini DJIA: Are The Bulls Returning?

I mentioned that the DJIA had  a move that would put it into Minute degree already. Another finished zigzag pointing down, can send the markets the opposite way, which looks like it already has started.  The DJIA counter rally has already gone far enough, so if this impulse goes ballistic chances are good, it’s in a “C” wave bull market. This would just lengthen the time this wave 2 can play out, but it’s that odd secondary peak that was out of place.

We are building a base for support, but this is only a temporary roadblock. It may take the rest of this month before this rally hangs in there and keeps soaring. March seems to be a popular month for reversals, but we’re also running short of time. If an inverted zigzag still needs to finish, it will still get retraced by 100% or more.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Still Lagging Behind

The DJIA is one index that is still running well behind the Nasdaq and others. The Nasdaq is the only index that has traveled to new record highs, but others are catching up, or getting close. I also switched to a line type chart, but this also changes any wave counts, I may be working at the time. If the DJIA is still going to play catch up, then it still needs more time to accomplish this task.

One burst of energy could push the DJIA to my top trend line, which would definitely force another wave count review.  I have some very questionable short term moves, that I don’t like, but those are the things that eventually need to be resolved.

The three trend line angles, is based on the bottom line, and the middle line helps to outline one degree lower wave patterns. We have the new moon coming on Saturday, and many times moves correspond with expiration dates closest to the 10th and 21st of each month.

Until this market displays a sustained decline like Bitcoin has been doing, then the end of the bull market is questionable in the short term.

President Trump is doing everything in his power to keep this bull market going, but sometimes bull markets end out of pure exhaustion, with nobody left to get in. Remember the idiots that love to buy high have to find other suckers to sell to,  and one day those greater fools will not show up. It must be a new bunch that has no clue what “Technical Analysis” or “TA” even is. The concept of contrarian thinking is completely absent in todays world, but from an EWP perspective, we must never forget any contrarian thinking.

When we do forget, we don’t see it “coming”so we miss all the market crashes and impending bull markets. Investors that think that bear market’s like 2001 and 2008, should never happen, are living in a delusional dream world, or they just arrived from a different planet. Of course, if a new group of aliens is buying into this market, then they also did not listen to or record earth’s market history.

The Gold/DJIA ratio spread increased a bit to 19.44:1 which makes it more expensive when compared to gold. About 21:1 is my top ratio record, which will be hard to beat.

No market stays permanently high, as they do wear out the participants if players are no longer make any gains. It’s been about 6-7 weeks already where the crowd that got in, in January, have made no gains or just stayed even.

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Nasdaq New World Record Highs!

As I’m posting the Nasdaq has hit 7111 already and there still seems to be some momentum behind this move. All other indices I cover need to play catch up, but we know that the Nasdaq can march to a different drummer. In the end we may end up with a completely different wave count, for now.

The February decline sure can fit as a single 5 wave decline which could be part of an expanded top. From the February bottom I believe we have another diagonal wave structure, which created the new record high this morning. Everything seems to be rosy for the majority of investors again as chances are good this, “Tariff War” was just a lot of hype, or any real tariffs on steel and aluminum don’t matter much.

Since the late 2015 bottom we had a massive 5th wave extension which borders on being a diagonal wave structure.  In our EWP book they call it an “Ending Diagonal” but they do not count out the zigzags that make up any diagonal move.  The 4th wave in Intermediate degree is one warning, and a diagonal 5th wave is another, so this ethusium will get replaced by pessimism again.

One thing good about this new top, is that it hasn’t created a double or even triple top. When we do get them, then it is much harder because we have to work out where the decline starts from. In a Cycle degree zigzag, we can’t have the markets soar to new highs, as that breaks every rule in the book, but flat corrections sure can produce “B” wave highs, before they plunge.

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DJIA Intraday Gyrations Update

The indices I cover make 3 month jumps, so when the March contracts finish,  I have to jump to June 2018 contracts. This chart is the first I will post in the new June contracts. (YMM18). Trading is a bit thin with this June month, but it should pick up in another two weeks.

I’m keeping my wave counts that would work for a Cycle degree zigzag correction. If this is not true, then eventually this wave count will get trashed, but it would also eliminate 2 out of three possible Cycle degree corrections. Any 1-2-3 declining wave count can be identical to any A-B-C zigzag, so until we get to the “C”or “3” wave count I can use my “B”wave top. The February 9th down spike you see is an erroneous spike, because it disappears with line type settings.

What gets me is that the DJIA secondary bottom of February looks truncated, which I have a problem with. It looks worse when I switch into line type settings.  These erroneous spikes, seemed to be computer generated due to the fact they happen so fast.

The rally is still going as I post and I would like to see that open gap closed before these markets resume any downside. All of my March contracts all registered Gaps, so it’s not an isolated event. (The Gary Cohon Dip) It would be fantastic if the gap ended up being closed, but still short of breaking out to another higher high. Trade war fears are not going to go away as they are part of the changing  fundamentals. Trump has made it pretty clear as he was always talking about tariffs and duties, so we should not be surprised at what is happening now.

The EU has threatened retalator attacks on US exports that are targeted at president Trumps heartland voter support. That is a very direct attack on Trump supporters as their jobs woud be on the line.  Fundamentals keep the masses entertained, but in the end if a big Cycle degree bear market is coming, it matters little what fundamental reasoning they use. Fundamentals will change like the wind and it will drive you nuts trying to make decisions based on fundamentals. In January 2018 the herd was extremely bullish as they bought into this “New Era” hype, and now two months later we hear lots of bearish news. When forecasting a price crash, before it happens, we would also be forecasting that fundamentals will change.

The idea that we always have to remind readers that markets never go down in a straight line is ridiculous, as that would only apply to investors that have never seen a financial chart before.

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Mini DJIA Bearish Outlook Update

The DJIA has finally peaked last month and now has started an early March decline. March seems to be a popular time for reversals, as the biggest bull market since the depression, started in early March 2009. For now I’m going to stick with the possibility, that we could produce a diagonal set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  This means the possibility of a Cycle degree zigzag correction.

I will run this wave count for as long as I can, and if I’m wrong and the markets make some wild moves that refuse to fit well, then this helps to eliminate the zigzag. Elliott Wave is all about eliminating other probabilities and then if we’re lucky we may end up with a better fitting wave count. In corrections there are “always” 3 simple patterns to chose from, which must be specific to the degree  that we think we are at.  Any  potential Cycle degree correction, has a very specific wave count for three types of “simple” corrections. In a Cycle degree correction, there can be “NO” alphabet wave labels bigger than Primary degree. Trying to count out 5 waves down in Primary degree instantly tells me that the wave analyst thinks they are in a Supercycle degree or higher, wave count already.

As I post the markets were charging back up again, so if this rally starts to break many previous highs, then I may have to throw out this wave count sooner than later.   When this market refuses to constantly push higher, then this historic stock party is over.

The trick is finding that last wave that belongs to the bull market, so we can start the new bearish count.  Oh, this obviously already happened back in January, but how many times did we think it was over, yet it turned and soared once more.

Once investor fatigue sets in,  then it could open the markets for a big “bear” attack.

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Nasdaq Intraday Bullish Phase Review

This so called rally has gone on long enough and should have topped some time ago. The 21st of each month can provide turning dates, but so does the end of the month.  This is starting to look more like an impulse type move with the market crash just being part of an expanded wave 4 pattern. Some of these spikes we see can be ignored once they are double check by switching to line type settings.

This wave count may get trashed in a blink of an eye, if it does not soar to new record high. We have a little over 118 points of  upside room left before the Nasdaq completely trashes my wave 2 wave count. All other indices I cover could catch up to where they can all be part of an expanded 4th wave in Minor degree.

I’m not going to spend too much time on this wave count, because it can change faster than we can imagine. There may not be any updates on Friday, but I will post some on the weekend when I can. Markets may be very lethargic on Thursday as well, so it could be a really slow time period in the next few days or so.

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update.

These futures charts do not produce the same wave structures as most of the ETF’s do, as there are far more intraday spikes created in futures than any other asset class. Many of these spikes happen so fast that I know or suspect many of them are computer generated spikes. In line type many spikes disappear, and when they do, I count the bar charts bypassing the spikes.

We had a truncated 5th wave just before the DJIA charged back up again, even leaving the previous 4th wave peak in the dust. I cover 5 indices and only the DJIA and the SP500 have made shortened 5th waves.

The rally since the 9th fits into a zigzag so if this market were to charge much higher, I would need 2 more full zigzag patterns for wave 3 and then wave 5. Waves 2 and 4 can just about be anything.

We’ll see if this rally lasts to the end of the day, but my take on this at this time, is that a new record high will not happen. Besides the wave count being false, the Gold/DJIA ratio had been bouncing off the 21:1 range many times. In order for this super bull to actually continue this 21:1 ratio would have to keep on expanding. It will take more and more gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA.

Recent reports mention that  Warren Buffet has been buying into Apple stock at record highs! Wow, even Warren Buffet is buying into this historic stock market peak. This is not what a true contrarian would ever do, but they will wait until the insiders start to buy again.


I thought I would add the DJIA big picture showing that Warren Buffett has been buying into the tops of  this historic bull market.

Warren Buffett more than doubled his holdings in Apple in 2017

Apple board members receive $262K in restricted stock


Buying into anything following Warren Buffet has produced serious downside moves in the past. Warren Buffet has lots of cash sitting around so he can buy something just because he likes it. Every major investor loves Apple stock, as it is one of the most widely held stock by institutions. Apple is in the DJIA and it will suffer in price once the “Big Dip” reveals itself again. Think that it’s a good time to invest as the DJIA records a record spike to the upside?

From the 2009 bottom the markets create 5 waves up in Intermediate degree. Not 5 waves in Minor degree and not 5 waves in Primary degree. If this record bull market has another super leg to go, then at a very minimum, the DJIA would still have to correct down to 15,000.  5th waves are never fundamentally strong like 3d waves are, so we will not get multi generations of 5th wave extensions. This has never happened in the past and it sure is not going to happen this time.

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DJIA Bullish Phase Update And The Gold/DJIA Ratio!

Once I realized that this decline is not running as smooth as a 5 wave impulse decline should, I looked for an alternate. Yes, I labeled it a truncated 5th wave, but the other 4 indicies I cover do not contain any obvious truncation.

The majority are still in an extremely bullish mood to a point that they are foaming at the mouth. Running with the bulls will only last so long, but sooner or later the bigger bearish trend will take over again. Over and over we hear the experts constantly issuing bullish statements, which basically tell us that this bull market has a long way to go.

Hate to break it to you folks, but the experts have said the same thing at every major top since 2000. Those experts that are preaching the stock bull market are easy to spot as they get front page billing most of the time, or they may be looking for “value”.  In Canada, we had our employment meltdown, and are heading for a recession, so are US stocks going to soar while our TSE keeps imploding? Some wave analysts only cover one or two indicies, but I cover at least 5 of them, so I will be right or wrong on 5 indices.

I recently saw a DJIA wave count from EWI and they are also extremely bearish on the stock market. They are good at picking tops, but that only serves a very small percentage of traders. The biggest thing is to catch a big bearish bottom early enough, to take action to deploy more funds. The last thing we would want is to end up with a small token position,  because we had no confidence that a major bottom was approaching in 2009. The bear market was already over in November of 2008, well before the real bottom in early March 2009.

Overall the DJIA gained about 410% in about 9 years and they think it’s just getting started. The Gold/DJIA ratio sure does not confirm any part of this bullish rhetoric as it peaked at about a 21:1 ratio. It took 21 ounces to buy a single unit of the DJIA, the highest amount I have ever calculated. In order for this super bull to charge much higher this ratio “must” also keep spreading wider. 21:1 is a far cry from the 7:1 ratio in early 2009.  I believe this DJIA will return to a single digit ratio again. Yesterday’s ratio was 18.48:1 which is compressing  from 21:1 not expanding.

Since Apple is in the DJIA it will not be safe to buy the DJIA until Al Gore buys a bunch of Apple stock again. 😀 Just kidding folks, but you get the picture.  Insiders have sold out a long time ago, so until we hear of massive insider buying again, this bearish phase is still ongoing.

In most part, the commercial traders are net short most of the indices, so until those numbers obviously change the big bull market is not going to materialize.

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