DOW E-Mini Intraday Update

For all of August, the DOW E-Mini has been dancing around in both directions. Good Luck trying to fit this into a bullish impulse even though a set of 5 waves seems to be finishing.

Yes the DOW has just created a golden cross, but it sure can head back down and execute a death cross! From what I see I have to remain bearish as 2 H&S patterns have also formed.

A strong bullish move would shred the resistance line to the upside. On the bearish side, we eventually would have to see new records lows.

Give it until the end of the month for a new bearish trend to show itself with a wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree still to complete.

Another leg down in the DOW sure could send gold soaring in another leg up.  In a sic way the DOW could see 5 waves down in Minor degree while gold might get 5 waves up in Minor degree.

If we were in an Intermediate degree decline, then I think this sideways pattern would take much longer to play out.

Once the DOW crashes below the August 6th low then we will know for sure that this August rally was just another bear market rally.  Yes, the decline started out very choppy but they can also smooth out as the trend matures. 21,600 could bring us support but that number may mean nothing once fear starts spreading far and wide.

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DJIA Intraday Crash Update

The stock markets have started a bearish move with the DJIA having a bit different of a top than the SP500. It’s been a long-anticipated move which will produce many twists and turns before we find that mythical support price.

Support for what? A temporary stop for just a correction or something that is going to breed the next big bull market. This all depends on what degree the record high actually was.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction which the majority of analysts will end up calling a conventional bear market.

I will keep my options open as to what type of correction we will get. We could eliminate any potential triangle as there is not enough time before solar cycle 25 starts to crank-up.

A “Flat or Zigzag”  is my pick but the present decline can just carry on without any obvious Primary degree counter-rally.  “A” waves can crash very deep and then produce insane rallies as well.

Gold is still soaring but I think the gold move is mostly emotional with the US dollar breaking a new record high just before it took a nosedive.

Stocks and gold compete with each other so when the DJIA is ready to make a huge bullish move then gold and gold stocks should implode.

Stocks could see a bearish mood for the rest of the summer and well into the fall, but that remains to be seen. Sometimes the choppy decline can smooth-out a bit but only time can confirm that.

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DJIA 2000-2019 Linear Chart Review

I occasionally run charts in linear scale just because it shows the extreme that this market has traveled.  Now if investors want to sit on the points of 3 needles (triple spike top) then they will suffer the pain in their investments once a potential Cycle degree correction starts to get serious.

The triple top is the most obvious point of resistance and the DJIA would have to be very bullish to make a solid breakout to new record highs.

The 4th wave big dip in 2018 is just an intermediate degree bottom so once this market starts a good bearish run, it should crash right through that 4th wave support.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Update

The DJIA also crashed with gold so any rush to a safe-haven sure looks like it’s not working this morning.  The only question is how deep this can go during the month of July.  A bigger bearish phase should slice my support line and eventually the 26,460 price level as well.

The mainstream analysts called for DOW 27,000 after which it crashed.  Now the experts will give us all sorts of forecasts how deep this “Correction” is going to go. If we have a Cycle degree wave 3 top then this requires a Primary degree correction down to Minor degree.

3-degree levels above Cycle degree and 3-degree levels below Cycle degree have always been my goals.

I treat solar cycles like an emotional fundamental as the entire world seems like it’s in a climate emergency!  In reality, the markets don’t give a shit about climate change as we have had a bull market since early 2009! Has the climate changed in 10 years?

Until solar cycle 24 ends and solar cycle 25 starts I will remain bearish but try and catch any larger reversals when possible.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Record High update

The E-Mini Dow hit a major peak last Friday and has now started a bearish move. The DJIA peaked about 26,922 just short of the 27,000 that many analysts were calling for.

The problem is that they never can tell how deep any correction will go until its too late.

For the rest of this month, we should know if a big top is in but I start a count-down anyways.  If the big party is over then the correction that is coming will be much bigger than most are expecting.  If we are at a Cycle degree peak then any bear market will just be a correction, but it will be a Cycle degree correction.

I could be early again but gold has also turned today. Most of the month of June gold and the E-Mini moved up together, so I have to question the stability or the life span of our present gold run as well.

To automatically assume that gold stocks will soar if the markets go for a mini-crash is wrong. When markets turn bearish then investors can sell anything and everything just to save their asses (assets) from a complete loss, throwing out gold stock ETFs as well. Instead, many analysts are calling for a FOMO inspired melt-up in stocks!

The solar cycle 24 bottom is ahead of us, close to the late 2020 time period and until solar cycle 25 starts, stocks can still act very bearish.

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DOW 30 E-Mini Intraday Impending Bull Trap?

Now that the markets are soaring does it mean the bull market is back?  This move for June is not natural because there are only very small corrections. I’m sure the bears have been horned by the stock bulls but is it time for this trend to reverse?

The May decline fits best as a diagonal with a 7-wave count. Any wave 2 rally will find stiff resistance at the previous 4th wave top and in this case, I have 3 previous 4th waves that this present wave 2 has touched.

Sure we can go higher but then a higher degree may also be involved. I changed the location of my Minor degree run and we should know by the end of next week or so.

Another set of 5 waves down in Minute degree would have to happen and nothing short of wave 2 retracement, would be acceptable.

The Gold/Djia ratio got better, but it’s still far too expensive presently at 19:1. Cheap would be closer to 8:1.

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Mini DOW 30 Intraday Review

For just about 3 days now the markets have soared. This is not a natural move as it’s also near vertical, suggesting that many buy stops got hit combined with the “Fear Of Missing Out”, rush.

The Dow did come back well into the previous second wave but it can’t surpass it. We would have to look for another zigzag type of a decline which would also produce a newer record low.

The Gold/Dow ratio changed but it didn’t make me jump up and down and scream “Buy”, as it’s only at 19:1 this morning.

I’m sure it will now take the rest of the week or longer before this clears up a bit and a complete retracement would have to take place if this was just another bear market rally.

The DOW and the SP500 are a bit the same but the Nasdaq looks more like an impulse.

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Mini DOW Intraday Bullish Moves Update

So far this market is still going in the direction I was anticipating but we could be in another correction.  At 26,050 we are running into previous 4th wave highs, that could act like a brick wall.

Blasting past resistance sure would help to keep my bottom 4th wave count alive a little bit longer.  For now, it looks like a diagonal run is forming as this wave 3  looks like another zigzag to me at this intraday scale.

Every 5 waves in the zigzag alternates in quality, one set (A5) can be smooth without any visible waves, while the second 5 wave set (B5), has more obvious subdivisions.

If the bigger bullish picture is alive then this run could last the rest of May, but if this run is just a short term bear market rally, then we would be lucky to last into next week.

The moving averages offer no special insight at this time but the DOW came to a halt at the 50-Day MA line.

Of course, gold reacted to the bullish markets by crashing.

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Intraday DOW 30 Mini Crash Update

This is a 30-min intraday chart of the DOW and it looks like the bearish trend is continuing after the April top. The DOW top did not go to new record highs but ended up falling well short. For now, a slightly truncated or shortened 5th wave will have to do, until this 5 wave sequence has all played out.

I started using a Minor degree run which can be adjusted later on as reviews become necessary. Any Cycle degree top would need at least one “A” wave in Primary degree for part one of a Cycle degree correction.

I’m sure there are daily trading limits with most of these indicies, because if there were no limits many of these plunges would be far deeper and last longer much longer.

We are 90 years from the 1929 crash which makes it 3, 30-year cycles that have completed. Except for some unexpected counter rallies this bearish phase could last for all of May.

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DJIA 2011-2019 Review

I’m a bit behind with my DJIA wave count as it has not pushed to record highs, at least not yet. These moves can frustrate any wave analysts, but ignoring them will not help them go away.

Since the 2018 peak, I had to go back and look for extensions that may have occurred. In this case, it’s the Minor and Minute degrees I extended, much as I did with the Nasdaq and SP500.

I also created a Minor degree 4th wave triangle, which would be a prime price target for some very strong price support in the future.

There are daily trading limits in the index futures, so it’s pretty hard for huge single crashes to develop as they did in 1929 or 1987.

It may still take all of April to play out, but eventually, the ending of Solar Cycle 24 will pull stock prices down, much like what happened at the tail end of 2018.

The Gold/DJIA ratio has changed little and is still around the 20.8:1 range, which is expensive by any stretch of the imagination when compared to the gold price.

 

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DJIA, Heading For A Triple Top?

Trying to find a decent wave count has been a challenge, to say the least, and I don’t see it getting any better.  At 26,700 the DJIA is getting near some major resistance, and if the markets have more bullish moves in them, then they could break out to new record highs again.

In the post, I looked for a potential triangle with a very deep “E” wave which still looks like a zigzag to me.   Any zigzag has very good odds that it can get completely retraced, which our present rally is just short of doing.

Last month saw a corrective drop (3 waves) followed by another 3 wave set which can be a small expanded pattern, which doesn’t fit into an “E” wave at this time.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is as expensive as it ever has been, hitting a price brick wall of 20.48:1, from an extreme of 21:1, established in August 2018.

An extreme expensive Gold/DJIA ratio, a triple top, and an inverse wedge or megaphone keep me looking for a bearish move, not some new bullish leg still destined to go to the moon.

If this wave count, lasts all of April I will be surprised as this market sure seems it has no rudder to help stear it.

A 3 month bull market needs a healthy correction or it sure is due one as the March correction isn’t big enough to do it.

 

 

 

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DJIA Daily Chart Death Cross Review

Since the December 26, 2018 crash low the DJIA exploded in an upward path that any sane wave counter would see five waves up and make a call that the Dow is heading to new record highs. Maybe?. The Death Cross at the 25,100 price level should give the stock bulls reason to pause as there is only a slim chance that a Golden Cross is still to come and even if a  Golden Cross did happen, it may only be a short-lived event.

Commercial hedgers are not all that deep with net short positions so counter rallies can happen.  I’m looking for a diagonal 5 waves down so another zigzag could play out, with the price traveling to a new record low.

Complete retracement will help to confirm that this stock rally was just another bear market rally.  This pushes any Primary degree “A” wave into the future and fear has a funny habit of creating mini-panics which can turbo charge any decline.

At 20:1 the Gold/DJIA ratio makes the DJIA still as expensive as ever so that alone keeps me from looking for bullish wave counts.

 

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DJIA Daily Chart Review

This DJIA is about the same as the SP500 in how far this bullish move has gone.  The DJIA still has a Death Cross below it even though the DJIA blasted right through both MA lines.  At 24,200 the 50-day MA might give the DJIA some support, but any correction could keep this Death Cross alive much longer.

The commercials don’t have a big bearish position, so this can give the DJIA a bit more wiggling room in the short term.

I’m not going to spent too much time on this update but the Gold/DJIA ratio is still near the extreme expensive side of 19.62, better than the 21:1 ratio I did have back in August 2018.  A cheap DJIA index would be 8:1 but that will not happen anytime soon.

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DJIA Bull Market Reality Check

In the last week, the DJIA and other markets have kept moving higher than what my wave count would allow. Our present rally that started after the December crash is looking too much like an impulse that is just now adding a spike to the upside.  We also have an H&S pattern forming, and if this bullish phase is going to continue to new record highs, then any right shoulder that will form will not last. Of course, the opposite would happen if this bullish phase is coming to an end.

I moved the Cycle degree wave 3 over, but that may be a temporary location only. Commercials are still short, but not all by that much so future bullish moves can still happen. When exploring a new wave count it can take months in that new position before the markets make or break it.

It may be hard to swallow that an expanded move can crash this deep, and I am pushing it to the limit. The mainstream analysts just love it as the markets recover from a bear market low and are now escaping this bear market. The market is also getting close to the 200-day MA, so we will see how much power the DJIA really has.

So far the USD, stocks, and gold have been in sync to some extent, so they can all crash together as well. It happened in 2008 and it can happen again. The Gold/DJIA ratio has pushed to 19.60:1 which is still an expensive extreme by any stretch of the imagination. Right after Presidents’ Day, the markets will be at a full moon, which can also produce devastating reversals. March has been famous for major reversals and in this case, it could send the markets south.

This market bullish move, if there is more to it, must at least produce a correction and retrace about 60% of this 2019 bullish move. If down the road a complete retracement develops, then we know our present market bullish moves was a bear market rally, from an Elliott Wave perspective.

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DJIA Intraday Update.

At this time it looks like the DJIA has peaked and the big question is are we heading into another correction or was this fantastic move just a bear market rally?  Rallies that travel at this speed always seem to run out of steam and then turn and head the opposite way. I show a Megaphone pattern which can happen in diagonal moves as well. The 4th wave rally traveling into the wave 2 positions is a dead give away that we are dealing with a diagonal run of 5 waves.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is down a bit from its extreme but yet still far too expensive. I would like to see our present Gold/DJIA ratio get chopped down to 14:1 before I get super bullish on the DJIA. Of course, many fund managers are frothing at the mouth as they, scream, “Buy the Dips”. DowJones_GoldPrice   Gives you an idea about others using the Gold/DJIA ratio over a bigger time period.

The stock market dip? Keep buying, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch

That might work for short term traders, but for a long term hold the DJIA is still going to get shredded.  If the Cycle degree peak is true, then at a bare minimum the DJIA would have to crash below 14,000. Others are as bearish as I am, and I’m sure many of the wave analysts are forecasting big bearish moves as well.

 

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DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update

 

The SP500 E-Mini has just pushed to another new high for the month of January 2019. Investors and analysts are bullish while a big group is bearish as hell. My Market Vane report is ending but this week there was only 50% bulls present which I don’t see as extreme. A 50/50 reading is not extreme enough to help determine any potential great move still to come.

I see this entire January run as a bearish rally but once the government clears up the economic backlogs we don’t have any COT reports to help us. I do have the Gold/Ratios which never shut down but are always active.  The Gold/Sp500 ratio was 2.03:1 this morning which it has been in a tight range since May 2018 which had the exact same reading.  This expensive ratio doesn’t make me jump up and down expecting another huge bullish phase to come. Cheap is a .75:1 ratio which means we still have a long way to go before stocks become very cheap again.

 

The DJIA has about the same wave pattern but looks like it has peaked already. This top may not hold as Friday’s can bring some very unexpected surprises which the markets may or may not like.

The DJIA is a bit cheaper when we use gold as a measuring stick, but it is still pushing the extremes at 18.77:1 this morning. 21:1 is the record to beat which happen in August of 2018.

We are at the end of a month and this bullish phase could be just the public stuffing or topping up their contributions for the 2018 tax year.

Continue reading “DJIA And SP500 Intraday Bull Market Update”

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update

For well over a month the  DJIA has been defying gravity. We had another peak yesterday at the 28,400 price level which is also the right shoulder of an H&S pattern. That’s just one indicator that the markets are approaching bull market resistance. Technically, this 4th wave rally can handle more, as diagonal 4th waves can dip into the previous wave 2.   Right now the DJIA is in the midst of a 3 wave move, but two more can develop, pushing to another record high! Gold has also soared during the same time period and this morning gold was close to $1310.

The Gold/DJIA ratio has not changed much as the DJIA is still very expensive at 18.76:1. That is better than the 21:1 ratio we did get and a far cry from the cheap readings of 7.19:1.  Maybe if we are lucky more government reports will come out this Friday, Feb,1, that will include some COT reports. Since Friday would be a new month other economic reports will also come out. All this could produce some very violent moves with the cold winter blast grounding flights. Grounding planes will affect their earnings as well, which could take some time before they report.

Once it gets colder in Chicago than the Arctic, then you know it’s fricken cold out.

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DJIA 1978-2019 Bull Market Review

Looking back in time always gives us a different perspective if we take the time to actually do it.  I’ve done this thousand’s of times, and each time looking for a better fit.  The common question is, “How deep or low can the DJIA fall down to”?  Since the 2000 peak we’ve had more forecasts of the DJIA crashing well below 1000 many times and yet this has never happened. In 2009 the markets sure dipped to a new low and well below the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The DJIA stopped dead in 2009, but nowhere near any previous 4th wave during the 1990’s stock mania.

The reason this has not happened is that all other wave counts are calculated as 5th wave extensions. I will stress the fact that it’s, “Impossiable”  for the EWP to create 5th wave extensions lasting 2 or even 3 generations.

The 2018  peak is a Cycle degree peak which eventually has to be fully corrected before another huge bull market in stocks will start. The public will call it a bear market and the big question may be, “How deep can the DOW fall”?  We have three important turning points, with the 2016 low being just one price area that we can see again. At a bare minimum, the DJIA should slip below the 14,000 price level. Longer term, any price low below 2011 lows, will get us closer to a bear market that is finishing.

This will not happen overnight as it will take as long as solar cycle #25 has not started.

The DJIA has made an impressive short term run that, at a minimum should give us another correction soon or the end of this bullish phase.

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DJIA Bull Market Update

There is a good chance that this DJIA bullish phase is coming to an end. Investors are all waiting for some miracle to happen to give them the green light to jump on board this rally. All it takes is some more “bad news” and this market can switch by selling. Beside that many stop-loss sell orders are piled up below present levels even when we can’t see them. There aren’t too many traders that can handle a 2500+ point decline in the DJIA.

In the long run in order for this rally to be confirmed as just another bear rally, the DJIA has to decline well below the 21,700 price level. With this government shutdown, economic data is rather scarce just like with all the COT reports.  About the only truths we have are the charts and those that don’t know any technical analysis are at a distinct disadvantage.

This market rally is just a Minor degree rally and many analysts are very bullish. Getting fooled by a Minor degree bullish phase will be worse once we start a potential Primary degree bear market rally.

“A” wave bottoms in Primary degree are “buy” signals and they should last a bit longer than just a few weeks. I think it’s impossible to have double expanded tops like what all wave analysts are trying to tell us. Most are looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree which has never happened in over 18 years, and it’s not going to happen this time. The reason they have never materialized is that we are nowhere near any SC or GSC degree wave counts.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is at 19:1 this morning which isn’t that far of from a record expensive ratio of 21:1.  We have a long way to go before this market becomes dirt cheap again as a Cycle degree bear market will take more than a little dip to resolve.

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DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Update

The markets keep pushing higher, chopping up all the bears into hamburger meat in the process. The DJIA has already gone sideways long enough to where it has broken the bigger trend line that started in 2018. I’m showing a wedge which some even call a bullish flag.  I see a wedge at this time but the DJIA can keep pushing north, but it can also suddenly reverse in a surprise bearish mood swing. Analysts will always find a reason why any asset class goes up and down but can we invest or trade with any single fundamental opinion.

Without a doubt, some analysts are very bullish when the markets are pointing up, and they become very bearish when the markets are pointing down. Only a few have the courage to be bullish when the markets make a big dip like in December of 2018. Most investors didn’t have a clue a market drop was coming in October 2018. To say that Apple didn’t see the slowdown coming is not being truthful as Tim Cook was the expert on China long before Steve Jobs passed away. Apple has a position in the DOW, so chances are slim that Apple will soar when the DJIA reverses its bullish trend.

The Gold/DJIA ratio and the Gold/Apple ratio give us a clue when an asset class becomes very expensive or cheap.

The record Gold/DJIA ratio to beat is 21:1 which happened a long time ago in August of 2018! Today we sit at 18.40:1 which still makes the DJIA expensive. Cheap would be 7:1 but that could be a pipe dream if you think it’s happening now.

I think options are due this Friday which can always cause some unwanted turmoil as well, and we will find out how committed the stock bulls really are. Usually, funds enter in January for income tax and retirement funding, and when the flow stops, stocks can make a huge plunge.  When the DJIA retraces the 21,500 price level then this rally will be confirmed that it was just a small bear market rally, in Minor degree. If any Minor degree rally can trap the bulls then any Primary degree bear market rally will trap many more.

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DJIA Rally Daily Chart Update

The DJIA is now well within 2018 spring lows which can work as resistance for a bear market rally.  Any retracement back below the 21,700 price level will confirm that this rally was just another start to a fake bull market or bear market rally. I will leave the top as is for now, until this 5 wave sequence gets confirmed. In the long run, a wave “A” in Primary degree is in our future where we can get a decent chance at a longer sustained bear market rally.  From a Cycle degree perspective, this so-called”correction” is far from finished, if the markets have a Cycle degree wave 3 top.

If we start from the 2009 bottom the following bull market was about as choppy as they come, which is very typical in 5th waves. 5th waves are fundamentally much weaker than 3rd waves are, but the majority of wave analysts think 5th waves can extend 80 years or more.  Nobody has a real clue what degree we are in but if analysts keep chasing 5 waves down in Primary degree we know that the majority think they are in GSC degree already! That logic does not wash with me, because not a single wave analysts have ever confirmed any Primary degree 5 wave sequence since the peaks in 2000.

Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

This is the best way to describe what has been happening with the majority of wave analysts for the last 18 years.

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DJIA Intraday Correction Update.

Last night the DJIA has started to back off from a wild bullish run which has convinced many to jump back into this so-called bull market. Wednesday is also a good turning day during a week!

Since December 2018 this move may not be finished yet if a bigger bullish move is still in progress, but if the zigzag rally is real then that December bottom of 2018 will not hold. (21,500). This move can be just a small bear market rally, and the best way to confirm that is if we see the DJIA completely retrace this bullish move.  This 2019 bullish move was a very fast move which is normal in a bear market rally but seldom can maintain the move in the long run.

This morning the  Gold/DJIA ratio was 18.40:1 which is an improvement but still not cheap enough by a long shot. I figure that at about 14:1 this market may be cheap enough to sustain another bullish phase, but at this time we are not even close. I have a Gold/DJIA ratio that made the DJIA “Cheap” when compared to gold, which was about 7.19:1.  One day in the future this 7.19:1 ratio could get beat again and if and when it does, I will turn extremely bullish.

With the shutdown no government COT reports have been issued so we only have Dec 20, 2018, as the last time the COT report has been published. At least the Gold/Ratios never shut down as they are always in effect.

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DJIA Rally Update

Since December 26, 2018, the DJIA index started on a rally and has gone on a bit longer than what I expected.  We now have 2 lower lows which are the sign of a bear market in progress. A market plunge next week, followed by another bullish run, could already be wave 3-4 in Minor degree. Of course, we can blame it all on the Apple stock price crash.

Reporters and analysts will always find you a reason why the markets are crashing and if there are 100 analysts, you will find 100 different reasons as well. It’s worse if you are following other wave analysts with the DJIA. You can do an “Image” search, ” Elliott Wave DJIA”,  and you will find a different wave count each time.  Worse yet they will fill the chart with “W, X, Y” waves or leave 5th waves uncapped. Leaving any 5th wave uncapped anywhere clearly shows that the analysts have no clue what is supposed to cap any 5th wave.

At this time I’m going to explore the possibility that we could already be in Minor degree wave 4, which could extend any 5th wave we might still get.  We are still under a “Death Cross”  so my big bearish mood is still being played out. A little Minute degree move can fool the herd into jumping back into the markets as FOMO can produce powerful moves that might make little sense when they happen. Just because something looks “Cheap”  doesn’t mean a bull market is just around the corner.

The January Wave 3 peak in Cycle degree has arrived about 50 years later than what the majority of wave analysts are telling us, so when you change a small part of a cycle degree move, you are basically creating a “Time” jump or traveling in time on paper.  This is just a mild example of  EWP time travel as it gets worse the higher degree we think we are in.

The entire wave counting world is telling us that 5th waves can extend for generations, which is false and has never been confirmed. 5th waves are the weakest waves.

The 2009-2018 5th wave bull market was all produced by flooding the markets by dropping money from a helicopter.

I keep about 28 or so Gold ratios which are impossible for me to track in detail, but I have a good idea when something is cheap to the cash price of gold.  My old record of the Gold/DJIA expensive ratio was about 17.24:1. This record was broken in August 2018 with a new extreme reading of 21:1!

The cheap Gold/DJIA ratio is about 7.19:1 which means it only takes 7.19 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the DOW.  Today this ratio sits at 18.25:1 which is better, but still a far cry from being “Cheap”. The fluctuation of the gold price is irrelevant as the gold ratios are always present and are always being adjusted.

 

 

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DJIA: Another Mini Bull Trap ?

The majority of the world is convinced that the Sept/Oct 2018 peak was a bull market top. What they don’t realize is that expanded tops are more common than what even the wave counters see.  Expanded tops also have extreme forecasting qualities built right in.  For the last 3 months or so we had a bearish phase that still has not completed. This bullish rally soared extremely fast which is common in bear market rallies.  By the end of January 2019 this bearish phase will be 1 year old already.

What any expanded pattern tells us is if the DJIA eventually crashes to 7000, then we already know that this 2018 peak will get completely retraced.  The DJIA will never crash that deep without huge counter rallies slowing it down. Often turnings happen closer to the end of a month like the DJIA is doing now.

Some compare this decline to the 1987 crash which is 31 years old. We are nowhere near those 1987 times as the markets will always do something a bit different to confuse as many investors as it can. The Cycle degree wave 3-4 is still valid and a Primary degree bear market is what is required to complete any 4th wave bearish phase.

The entire universe of wave analysts believes that the markets are in a huge 5th wave extension. One from the 1932 bottom and another 4th wave bottom in 1974.  I’m being very direct or blunt about this, as 5th wave extensions, this long has never happened in 500 years of market history, least of all 86 years long which covers about 3-4 generations or seasons. The crowd of wave analysts has been looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree for over 18 years, and not a single set has ever developed or confirmed.

Short term another new low should happen after which another rally could surprise the investors again. Until all 5 waves down are completed I will remain bearish, but I will have no problem at looking for a Primary degree “B” wave rally in 2019.  “A” wave bottoms are buy signals but it is important what degree of an “A” wave we are talking about.

All the mini or micro mini wave counting  you see is useless work if we keep missing huge bull or bear markets.

 

 

 

 

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DJIA, Just A Mini Bear Trap?

Instead of a Santa rally, the markets gave the worst Chrismas performance ever. It broke some records. I look at this during the holidays and had a sneaky suspicion a counter rally may happen. Sure enough, the markets have roared back from the dead and made up of the price it lost last week. Nobody calls the December decline as deflation, but that is exactly what it is. The USD can now buy more stocks than what it could all year.  Sure we can see some more upside but a good correction should happen as well.  Right now,  I bet we are in a Minute degree wave 4 rally that still may flop around before it resumes its bearish phase.

To confirm that this is just a mini bear market rally the DJIA  has to retrace the entire move below the point of origin, which is wave 3 in Minute degree.  The big bear is far from finished as we are coming off the biggest stock bubble/mania in financial history.  This is my third bear market I have tracked in the last 18 years and each bear market will be different. We are not going to get anything like the 2002 bear market and it will be different than the 2007-2009 bear market. I searched the internet for most of December and there is not a single wave analyst out today has recognized a 2018 expanded top.  One of the most important markets moves there are and the experts don’t see it.

Once the bigger bearish phase resumes we should start running into wave 3 and 4 in Minor degree after which we could be approaching the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.  Any Minor degree 4th wave can contain a triangle as a triangle always forces a move into one higher degree, sometimes 2 higher degree levels. When that happens I assure you I will turn bullish on stocks.

Oil has also reacted tonight and only time will tell if it has legs to move much higher on this trip. One good thing about watching the markets during night trading is that you know all other ETF related asset class will roar in early trading sessions.

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DJIA, The Big One: 1929-2018 Review

I have been posting small charts which can make my wave positions hard to read.  The fonts may be hard to read but I will not make my fonts on the charts any bigger. Instead, I increased the chart size that I post. This chart is one of the first that are full-sized and I did a printout comparison with my original chart and found little difference. The difference might be the speed of the page loading up. If the change makes the charts clear for readers, and they make better printouts then I will try full-sized postings for the rest of the year.

Learning any EWP is impossible when all wave counting is done on a computer screen. The majority of my wave analysis is done on paper where I can take weeks looking at it before I lay down one single number or letter.

1929 was a wave 1 peak in SC degree and definitely is “not” a wave 3 peak.  Starting with the 1929 peak we have a 1-2 wave count then by 1942 the second wave 1-2 completed. After the second set of 1-2 waves is when the wave 3 can start to extend producing the wave 1-2 in Primary degree which ending 1974!  During the ’70s and early ’80s 3 back to back 1-2 waves developed with wave 5 in Minor degree really kicking in the extension.  I looked at all the wave failures during that time as the majority were all looking for 5 waves down in Primary degree. They didn’t learn anything from that but tried to repeat the same 5 waves down in Primary degree by the 2009 bottom.

I’m sure that the experts are going to repeat the same mistake in 2019 especially if you see major peaks with uncapped 5th waves. When “Any” wave analyst leaves a 5th wave uncapped he or she is sending a clear message that they have no clue where they really are!  So if we give our present decline a few more months and you are searching for other wave positions with any wave 1 in Primary degree then feel free to send me the link.

Our present peak contains an expanded pattern which is the first step in a potential flat yet to come. This flat may end up looking like a zigzag as nobody is looking for expanded tops. Expanded tops are powerful forecasting waves. For an example, if the DJIA crashes down to 7000, I will turn very bullish and will call DOW 34,000 or higher for the next major SC degree wave 3. I have at least 5 major expanded patterns in progress, so all of them will join the new bull market sometime after the 2020 elections. Solar Cycle #25 will also kick in at that time so I’m sure the stock party will return.

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DJIA Intraday Bear Market Update.

I will not spend too much time on my postings but let the charts do more of the “Talking”.  Yesterday the DJIA hit another bottom after which it rallied but also made a wild move that can only fit into a corrective move at this time.  I may be on my last 3rd set of 1-2 waves so soon this process will start to show wave 3 labels.  Wave 3 in Minor degree is the goal which could take into early 2019 to finish.

This rally should not go that high and if it does, I will have to adjust the wave positions as well. This bearish phase is  far from over, but rallies can convince the talking heads that the decline is a done deal. It all depends on the big size of this market correction is going to be. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and what we have witnessed so far, is just a wake-up call for the non-believers.

Yes, in 2018 the markets achieved world record highs and this bear market will not be over until we have achieved world record “lows”.  A big counter rally is coming but not just yet. It may take until late January or even February before this decline finishes.

 

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DJIA Index: Bears Are Still In Control!

I have looked over many other wave analysts work and I haven’t seen a single wave analyst that recognizes an expanded top. The majority will show you intricate wave counts and mostly done using candlestick settings. EWI has never used candlestick in any of their books and neither will I.  I will never post thousands of super-small or super-micro-mini wave counts as that is not Elliott Wave analysis. The crop of new wave analysts are showing you how much free time they have as they are trying to baffle us with bullshit. The Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) is basically a visual technical painting tool. They might paint you a beautiful picture but many times what they paint in their computers, they can never repeat it in freehand on a printout.

I have always done Elliott wave analysis in freehand and still do. Once 2018 finishes, I will only show the late September position as the most important wave to count from. I have Cycle degree specifications I follow and Minor degree wave positions are my most important waves. Minor degree is 3 degrees below Cycle degree. I also work 3 degree levels above Cycle degree, so I end up with a spread of 7 degree levels. Keeping the degree levels down stops us from time warping into the future. Being out by one degree can send us into the future by 30, 90 years or longer, so changing wave positions should be done “Like a Surgeon” not like some person flipping hamburgers. The more they flip numbers and letters around the more obvious it is that they don’t have a clue where they really are.

It is amazing how many wave analysts fall into the trap thinking that 5th waves can extend across multiple generations. 1932 to 2000 would cover about 3 generations (68 years).  At a minimum the markets should have crashed back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but the markets have missed this 3 times already. Yet they insist we are in a Grand Supercycle degree world.

It may take another few months into the spring of 2019, and as a rough count we can use about a month of time for each of the 3 remaining waves still to come.

 

 

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DJIA Index Update.

 

Sometimes the futures charts don’t offer any special insight. I like this index and it only moves during the day. It can take days to finish a small move and this DJIA ended on a down spike and now has roared back to life!

It may last this week but any correction in this market is far from over. The DJIA is not going to soar to the moon as it will take much more to correct the imbalances in the world. That imbalance is “Debt” and world governments are all leverage to a point they will never pay the debt off. It will be easier to default on any debt than pay it down.

The DJIA may have seen another wave 1 bottom but in Minute degree. The bearish trend is still alive and at 23,300 all support will fail. Of course, President Trump will be blamed and they are even talking impeachment proceedings.

If the markets are very expensive when we use the Gold/DJIA ratio, then I can’t be bullish for any fundamental reason.  My most expensive reading was 17.24:1, which was broken by a new record of 21:1 in early August of 2018. This morning this ratio was 19.85:1 which is better but its a far cry from being cheap. The commercials are still net long but not at any extreme, so I would also like to see those numbers reverse.

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DJIA Index Update

This is the DJIA index from Big Charts which shows some violent moves that have occurred in the last 2 months or so. Many of the asset classes I use also contain an expanded top. I look at some other analysts wave counts and they are oblivious to any potential expanded pattern.

If you see any wave count with any 5th wave not being capped then that wave analyst is “Clearly” telling you, ” I have no clue where we are”.  Even the expert wave analysts leave the 5th waves uncapped.

I’ll be pretty blunt in saying that in January of 2018 wave 3 in Cycle degree has completed and my expanded top pattern is still my best bet. We’re only in an Intermediate degree crash right now, but eventually, it will turn into a Primary degree crash.

I need 5 waves down in Minor degree which has a slim chance of finishing this year. The Gold/DJIA ratio today sits at 19.54, which means it takes over 19 Gold Troy ounces to buy just one unit of this DJIA index. This is only a marginal improvement in stock markets getting cheaper, but this ratio should change by the time the DJIA corrects from a Primary Degree “A” wave. 

All support will fail when the 23,400 price level gets breached and panic will ensue again.  So far, I have 2 sets of 1-2 wave counts completed and if I’m lucky I might see the third set. 3 sets of 1-2 waves will extend wave 3 very well, and the 5th wave can also do the same thing. First sets of 1-2 waves are always the shortest, if they are not then chances are good we have an “A” wave.



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