Tag Archives: Elliott Wave DAX

DAX 2009-2018 Cycle Degree Review

 

 

https://www.thelocal.de/20170424/germanys-ageing-baby-boomers-to-be-drain-on-economic-growth-report

The DAX has also turned down along with every other major index from around the world.  From the early 2009 bottom, the DAX charged along just like all other indices, but with far more choppy wave structures than others. Grading the quality of waves tells me we are much closer to diagonal wave structures than pure impulse wave structures. Early 2018 was the real top for the DAX, which has never been breached and is holding at 13,500.

The stock mania around the world has ended, as the world dips into a demographic nightmare that investors have little knowledge about. As the DAX crashes along with the rest of the world, I’m sure the mainstream media will have to find reasons why the market is imploding, and the story above is just one. More and more of this demographic risk will start to show up as the media will run out of all other excuses why stocks are crashing.

In the long run, until 2022, we should be in a bear market that is just starting to get going. As long as analysts are saying to “buy on the dips” then these analysts have no clue to the size of this impending bear market!

There are 30-year cycles at work here and this 2018 peak is 89 years after the 1929 stock market peak. We would be off by 1 year in 90, which is just 3, 30-year cycles. I have done thousands of these 30-year cycle calculations between 100’s of different peaks, and yet a one-year error rate seems to stay true.

This is not going to be a simple crash like 1987 was, as this time there should be a huge long bearish move like the 1930-1932 decline gave us. 1987 was a Minor degree crash, and what we are dealing with here is at least 3 degrees higher.

Deflation is the real threat and the first clue that the Fed is going to switch is if they start to use “pause”, in their language!

Where the first major support price level comes is not an exact science but I look for major previous bottoms to give us a clue. Any big previous low can supply support, but support for what?

 

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DAX 1995-2018: Elliott Wave Review From A Cycle Degree Perspective!

This is the 4th world index that I looked at recently. It looks like the DAX investors have had a wild ride in the past and now it’s coming back!  The DAX history is linked to the US markets as the DAX crashed and burn right along with US stock exchanges. Back at the 2000 bubble, I thought there could be an expanded flat, but it also works as a great diagonal 5th wave in Minor degree. After 2000 the bottom fell out of the DAX but this DAX crash counts out very well as a zigzag.

The zigzag bottomed in early 2003, after which the DAX took off in yet another bull market. The DAX also counts out well as a set of 5 waves in Minor degree. “In a bull market “every” 5th wave top must be joined or connected to a one higher degree number.  So in mid 2007 the 5th wave in Intermediate degree topped, but also stopped on a wave 3 in Primary degree. After which it crashed again.

Then by early 2009 the DAX bottomed right along with the rest of the world, but also participated in the 2009-2018 bull market. The 5th wave in Primary degree counts out very well as higher quality 5 waves, which keeps it out of the diagonal wave classification. I could only squeeze the 5th wave in Primary degree into the chart, which should be capped. The 2018 peak, is a wave 3 in Cycle degree, not SC degree and especially not GSC degree. Being out by just one degree, we can be out by a mile, so we want to take care about what we stick onto the 2018 peaks.

All my DAX peaks are ending with a wave 3 count and so are all my other indices that I work with.

A friendly warning, “Don’t trust any wave count ending with a 5”  from anywhere on the Internet. They have broken the Elliott Wave sequence, if they don’t cap any bull market 5th wave.

To confirm any future Cycle degree 4th wave correction, it will take a very attentive wave analyst to keep tracking the DAX which I don’t have but I will track some of the bigger turns when I can.  It’s the crowd psychology that is being damaged as they don’t know what to do with all this volatility. One expert claims that this is the most volatility he has seen in the markets in his entire  career.  What? Stay tuned as youv’e seen nothing yet!

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