Bitcoin Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Bitcoin has now moved well past any potential 4th wave rally in Minute degree, which means we have to start another wave count but from a different peak.  Could this present rally turn into the next bullish phase up? It could, but if that’s the case, then we have a long way to go with Bitcoin staying within the two trend lines.

It’s pretty hard to keep bulls caged up just by drawing pretty trend lines, but for any bearish move to continue, the bottom trend line must get sliced.  Also, any $11,500 price level will never hold, as bearish moves always need lower lows, to keep the Bitcoin bears happy. Even now, Bitcoin can produce another major double top, just to make it more miserable to count waves.  Volumes are not really exploding, so interest in Bitcoin futures is not exactly the greatest thing to get all excited about.

From my perspective, Bitcoin and all other Cryptos are just speculative asset classes, that many are calling Bitcoin an “investment”.  Any currency is just a medium of exchange to measure and compare, like any desktop ruler or measuring tape. Buying or owning a bunch of “rulers” has no intrinsic value. Sure, we can have numbers on these currencies, but in reality currencies are constantly shifting in value, but the numbers on the bills never change.

When currencies implode,  they just print something with an extra zero in front of the decimal point, and the semi full of cash can now fit into your basic wheelbarrow.  The longer Bitcoin takes in developing a new direction, the more impatient Bitcoin traders will get.

As of this morning there are now 1384 Cryptos on the list, and when new Crypto issues start to slow down, then this list should stop growing as well. The worst case scenario would be that the Crypto list starts to shrink or stagnate. This week I noticed the first possible sign of stagnation, but that could be just due to the holiday season or even a misprint.  I would like to have more evidence of this potential stagnation, which still could take weeks to clear up.

It now takes 12.26 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which compressed a bit, from the 15.9:1 ratio I once calculated.

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Bitcoin Crash, Gold 2.0 Myth Busted

I increased the degree level to where the start is now a Minute degree. During the last 5 days Bitcoin crashed about $9000 and has now recovered a bit. From my perspective, I have not run into a set of good looking declining 5 waves in a very long time. Any little 5th wave acted like a diagonal, which makes Bitcoin wave counting an excellent experience. There could be more of this counter rally to go, but sooner or later the counter rallies will get bigger and take longer to play out.

I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count quickly, and so far have not had to change it, but may have to at a later date. Three sets of visible 1-2 waves will certainly give us a wave three extension, until the next 5th wave decline starts. If the last  5th wave contains many choppy wave structures, then that will help to confirm a new higher degree will be forming. Also, any 4th wave triangle that may form will also help in confirming our location.

Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high – MarketWatch

Unless I can see a clear zigzag or flat starting to set up, there will be no telling how deep Bitcoin can crash. We heard the stories about the myth that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 which has now been exposed as pure bullshit. At one point $200 billion worth of Bitcoins evaporated in a puff of electronic smoke.

This Bitcoin crash changed the Gold/Bitcoin ratio form a peak of 15:1 to a bit under 11:1. This is not even close to the 3:1 ratio we did have at one time. Also, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever rise from the ashes again.  At a 3:1 ratio Bitcoin would have to fall to $3800 USD, which is very close to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.   As of today, the Crypto count is about 1377, with no end in sight just yet. When the list stops growing or even starts to shrink, then this Crypto party is over.

Below, we look at gold and how it reacted to the Bitcoin crash during the same 5 days.

Gold, dipped a bit, but in most part gold completely ignored the crash of Bitcoin. Gold kept chugging along, pushing higher every step of the way. I think gold has more room to make gains in the short term, but it’s starting to form a nice spike on the daily charts.  I didn’t touch my bigger wave count as I just couldn’t find a more convincing alternative at this time. Either way this gold bull market has a long way to go in time, and price.  It’s not the top projected price that’s important, but the mood that will be present, is far more important. Also, the Gold/Hui, and gold ETF ratios should become very expensive.

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Bitcoin, Breaking Records On The Way Down

They use the Cobe futures contract for the CME Bitcoin futures. Each contract contains the price of 5 Bitcoins and is always the cash settlement price. They never have to take delivery once the contract expires.

I believe it is the secondary top, that I have that is the real top, followed by a declining  set of 5 wave sequences. I always start with my smallest degree level, which now contains a Miniscule set of 5 waves. Miniscule degree is the bottom of the barrel from a degree stack of 15. I can adjust the degree levels up or down if need be, but right now we would be heading down to a wave 1 in Minor degree which still could take weeks.

Any wave count I produce is strictly experimental in nature, but practicing in counting 5 declining wave structure is like a warmup for the stock markets when they start on their journey south.  I am not an expert on Cryptos by any means, but not counting a declining mania, is too hard to pass up. The new record low that hit this morning is 15,380. We have a long way to go, and at some point in time the pattern must form into a zigzag, flat or triangle “If” another big leg in Bitcoin is to happen.

Bitcoin created all sorts of records on the way up and now is set to make new records on the way down. Either way, we have the potential bursting of Bitcoin Mania,  or it’s just a huge correction. The next weeks and months will tell us more as Bitcoin price moves are very sensitive at this degree scale.

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December, 8, 2017 Bitcoin Mania Review

 

Trying to put a wave count to Bitcoin is an exercise in futility. The main reason is that the wave degree levels I’ve been using was far too large. Some of these wild Bitcoin moves are happening in 4-10 hours. One move Bitcoin dropped $3000 in just 10 hrs. Any 10 hour time period is not an Intermediate degree by any stretch of the imagining, so I dropped my degree levels a minimum of 2 degrees. My highest degree level now starts at Minute degree. 

Besides the degree level not even being close, there is another problem with the charts. In the downloaded chart above, we have two peaks with one peak ending just a bit above $17,000 per Bitcoin. This pattern is not what we see in real time on the charts, and it’s another reason why any wave counting is futile.  

 

This chart I clipped from Coindesk, and we can see a double top at $17,000. Everyone knows what a double top can bring, but it will not take too long to see if this double top will hold. My interest in Bitcoin is purely the crowd psychology aspect of it and all the wild stories about Bitcoin losses and robberies. The Bitcoin world is like the “Wild, Wild West 2.0” as every boom cycle attracts all the crooks and scammers as well. This has happened in every mania, I ever looked at, so it’s nothing new from my perspective.

Bitcoin is part of the bigger tech bubble, no different than the tech bubble of the late 1990s. I’m sure Bitcoin will go down in history as the all time greatest mania, ever!  The wild stories coming out about Bitcoin robberies, and massive data overloading, has shut down or crippled Bitcoin trading sites. Online wallets going missing, hard drives thrown away, does not sound like a system that is stable.

Bitcoin miners are hoarding Bitcoins, and they could decide to sell all at once. You can be certain that when they all do decide to sell, the price of Bitcoins will not remain where it is today.   

Money, or Bitcoin is just a medium of exchange, a tool to measure something to a piece of paper. That’s just like buying a bunch of plastic rulers, thinking they are an investment. Dozens of private Crypto currencies are coming out, with talk about the Fed issuing “Fedcoin.

Search the internet and you will find this world full of bubbles and manias, which is the most I have ever witnessed.

In the big scope of things we need a huge market correction to wipe out much of this delusional thinking, that is gripping  speculators in late 2017.    

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Bitcoin Another Record High At $12,230

I couldn’t help myself but to create a wave count as well.  The specific wave degree may not be the right one at this time, but what followed the “ABC” crash was a diagonal pattern. These diagonals happen in 5th waves, so we have a good understanding where we are, in an Elliott Wave sequence. Just in case there is more upside to come, I used a Primary degree wave 3 as my top. This top hit $12,230 but we have to see if it will hold.

Normally any correction can take Bitcoin back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which puts the $10,000 price level back in the cross hairs. Anywhere between $11,000 and $10,000 would qualify as the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

Sometimes it can even go under the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be below $9500! Any more than that and we could be looking at a complete bust of this Bitcoin Maina.

 

The chart above may be a bit old, but Bitcoin already qualifies as one of the biggest bubbles ever!

Horror stories come out, like the one guy losing millions when he tossed his hard drive.

Bitcoin: Man who ‘threw away’ $140m wants to dig up landfill

Gold company’s stock jumps 1300% after switching to bitcoin | MINING.com

In 2000 gold companies switched into the internet craze just before the markets crashed, and gold soared. Now they are doing the exact same thing. One thing that the Bitcoin crowd does not understand, is that Bitcoin is “NOT” gold. Bitcoin has “NO” intrinsic value.

Right now they are hoarding Bitcoins but the day will come, when the Bitcoin miners start to dump Bitcoins!


Updated Dec, 7, 2017

Bitcoin just keeps on breaking record highs, blasting past and wave count I had.  Our last Bitcoin price was about $15,914.  It is a silly notion when we think that we can pick an exact bubble top. Bitcoin has now started a bit of a correction, but we know not to trust for this price level to hold.   There is a plethora of digital cyrpto currencies coming, so the markets will become swamped, with privately issued money. Even the US government is talking about issuing their own Cyrpto currency. (Fedcoin)

Anybody can buy a Bitcoin Miner and if it contains the right card, you may be lucky to mine one or 2 coins a month.  Majority of Bitcoins are hoarded, and the miners will one day, try and dump them all at the same time.

The Toronto real – estate  scene is a prime example, how people want to dump their holdings all at the same time.  2017 sure looks like the “Year Of The Bubbles”.  In all of  history I have never heard about so many bubbles being active all at the same time.

There is talk about Bitcoin futures, which should give us some better charts,once they come out.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio achieved 12.77:1 today. This means it takes 12.77 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. It used to be that you could buy 2 Bitcoins with one ounce of gold just a year ago.  That is a dramatic change already and that ratio can keep expanding.

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