Bitcoin Intraday Crash Update

On June 7th I posted a very bearish Bitcoin wave count which did not disapoint,  as Bitcoin crashed leaving a big gap in its wake.  This is actually the first big gap  in Bitcoin that I know of. The general guideline that 90% of all gaps get filled, should not be taken serious with Bitcoin. This gap may close in a flash or remain open for years and even never get closed.   It sure looks like the once famous mania has now been replaced with fear as Crypto hackers and scam artist take their toll on the bulls to muster a sustained return to a real bull market.

Every market goes up or down and just because it goes up does not mean it’s in a bull market .  My wave counts are Cosmetic and should not be trusted for any reason as the big decline has not been clear enough the way I like it. I don’t speculate in any Bitcoins except some collector coins I sell to friends or give to family as birthday gifts. The same mania that happened in Bitcoin also happened in Marijuana stock ETFs like HMMJ. We can count Bitcoin waves until all combinations are exhausted and yet Bitcoin could flate-line and never mount a sustained bull market again.  In order for any rally to be in a full blown bull market, Bitcoin would have to travel well above any $19,000 price level. Just like Tulips we may never see that Bitcoin extreme price level again.

I believe Bitcoin still has to fall well below the $6000 price level and many are starting to echo those same sentiments.

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Bitcoin Bear Market Review

This is the general Bitcoin index and only moves during the day. Back in February 2018 Bitcoin bottomed and then rallied to just about $12,000. That didn’t last too long before Bitcoin prices started to head south again. Bitcoin bottomed again in April before it rallied back up in early May. Since then Bitcoin seems to have started another decline that sure looks like it’s not finished. My wedge may not mean much but what are the chances that Bitcoin will cross the bottom wedge line before it ever crosses the top wedge line?

I think Bitcoin has to fall well below the $6000 price level and even then there is only a slim chance that Bitcoin could morph into a huge bull market anytime soon. At $5000 Bitcoin would be close to about a 71% decline which a pretty normal bear market decline. That still doesn’t mean much, as Bitcoin could flatline driving all investors away due to boredom.

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Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart Bear Market Review

I have been reducing all my Crypto related postings as this is not my cup of tea so to speak. I don’t trade in or invest in Bitcoin related markets. For now it  may only be updated several times a month. I may even  stop posting altogether as I’m more of a gold, oil stock ETF trader. Bitcoins and our Canadian Medical Marijuana market imploded much like the Bitcoin market did so I’m equally bearish on Marijuana related stocks.

This is the Bitcoin cash chart which only moves during the day and is starting to fill out so we can keep that December 2017 peak in view. This chart shows a high of 19,315 after which Bitcoin crashed down to $6000. This Bitcoin crash was one of the easiest to expect as all the classic signals arrive just before the top.  Investors just love to buy high as they think it is the best time to get in. When the majority thinks like that then the markets only has one way to go and that is in the opposite direction.  The greatest fool has arrived and there is no one left to jump in.

Bitcoin has been on a bullish run, but then that $12,000 price level would produce extreme resistance again. The Crypto market is changing rapidly as Miners jump from one country to another in finding the cheapest electrical cost. Also new mining, hardware is constantly evolving, so to keep up with it all is not my specialty. Many companies related to Bitcoin and Blockchain have crashed and worst of all Bitcoin and Cryptos have never had an established track record of bug cycles. I’ve talked to Bitcoin investors or traders that had an extremely hard time to get Crypros converted to good old fashion US currency and back home into their US checking accounts. The two way flow must be tested to make sure no roadblocks exist, and once withdrawn it must only take about  3 business days, otherwise chances are good, you don’t own that asset as others are trying to claim it as well. I have a small Goldmoney account and it takes three business days to redeem US currencies directly back into my US checking account.

The speed of which we can convert cash into our hands is the most important factor.

So far not a single commercial trader has even opened up and positions going in any direction, so from their perspective, there is no interest at all in playing this game.

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Bitcoin Update: X Marks The Spot!

This is the cash chart which only gets updated during the day. (BGY00) It also produces different wave patterns that are not the same as the actual April contract. The next available contract month is May and it has so little interest that it’s not worth posting.  I tried something different this time as I applied a custom moving average as 25 day and 100 day averages. This produces a quicker “Death Cross” or “Golden Cross”. We just had a golden cross just a few days from the unknown bottom, which is marketed “X”. Jokingly, “X” = “I don’t have a clue”. In this case X marks the spot to the start of a new wave count.

So far it works as a diagonal, but a pretty clean one I label with a 5 wave run in Minuette degree. There still is upside left, but we start running into resistance again at the $9000 price level, with the big resistance line at just below the $12,000 price level.  Sure, volume in the entire Crpto world has improved dramatically, but it can also be the smart money selling to the gullable dumb money.

The bearish history of Bitcoins is relatively short, and if the bigger trend is still down, then this run must end. This would only be one move, but we need three moves  to help confirm a bear market rally.   We do have  a huge double bottom from the February bottom,  and if you like, we can even draw a falling wedge. If this wedge means anything I would be surprised.

The total Crypto market cap has improved by about $100 billion, but still down close to $500 billion since the peak of the good times in December 2017.

We are getting close to finishing a 4 month bearish phase that the majority thinks is  just a correction in a bull market. Bear markets and even bear market rallies are not over in a few short months but can last many years.

My Bitcoin updates will be once a week unless I see some potential dramatic move being setup.

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Is The Bitcoin Bear Market Over?

In the last few days or so Bitcoin has been acting a bit different with an odd wave structure that does not fit well with the previous wave count. Some experts claim that the “correction” in Bitcoin is done with, and a new bull market in Bitcoin will start. A Bull market to where exactly? To be in a bull market Bitcoin has to exceed the old high of $20,000. Besides that, Bitcoin would have to fight past that $12,000 price level first.

Bitcoin is getting very close to breaking out, past my top trend line, and when I bring the bottom trend line up a bit, we end up with an inverted Megahone pattern.  Trend lines are subjective opinions at best, because they are used so much that they hold little information.

Wedges or inverted Megahone patterns can produce some wild thrusts so I respect those patterns, especially if they are Primary or Cycle degree Megaphones.  I will as much as I can,  keep two trend lines parallel to each other, and some Megaphone patterns when they might be sneaking up on us.

Bitcoin has become the currency that’s hard to spend: Don Pittis | CBC News

Here is a good story how a guy paid 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas back in 2010. This worked out to about $82 million for two pizzas!

The new ICO issues have started to slow down this week, but it seems that about 40 of them disappear over night from a peak of 1600 coin offerings. We are back down to 1564 coin offerings and the pace they are pumped out could be slowing. The 24 hour volume has hit close to 10 billion, which is down dramatically from its hay days. As I post Bitcoin is in a bit of a rally so chances of it breaking out past the trend line looks very good.

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Doing The Bitcoin Plunge! $6000 Or Bust!

The Bitcoin decline doesn’t seem to be letting up as we’re approaching big support at the $6000 price level. $6000 would clear the bottom of the spike, but the $6200 price level is the record low with a line type chart, so there is a 200 point variable.  I’m posting a bit more frequently when the wave count is friendly and confirming the bearish mood. I’m showing a 1-2, 1-2 and another 1-2 count, with each 1-2 wave count being one degree smaller  each time. From the Minute degree wave two, another three sets of 1-2 wave counts will give us a pretty good idea that we are extending the third wave sufficiently enough. Two sets of 1-2 counts is the minimum I like to see to confirm any 5 wave impulse.

This would not automatically stop the 5th wave from extending as well, as two waves out of three (1-3-5) can both extend. As soon as the count goes sideways or off course, then the impulse decline must be thrown out, or adjusted a bit counting from a different peak.

There are no signs that this decline is going to magically reverse and soar back into the bullish mood as we would need far sharper declines than what we have. Bitcoin players can’t short Cryptos like futures traders can,  because if you could, you would see all these waves swing in a much wilder fashion and with far greater volatility.

Bitcoin players are acting just like any majority of players will, as they refuse to be strong buyers in a bear market. Since Wednesday the total amount of ICOs published hit a record 1600, but in the last day or so, about 40 of them vanished! This surprised me a bit as I didn’t think that, that many would disappear that quickly.

The tale of the disappearing ICOs could be just a glitch, and it may take a week to see if the trend continues. This all points to a decline in interest so some cryptos will be pulled and disappear.  All Cryptocurrencies were created from thin air (wave zero) and back to zero they can all go.

Until I see the entire set of 5 waves down materials I will remain very bearish to anything Crypto related. I’m not against any speculating, but speculating on something that is not in a bull market will only cause players to lose money.

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Quick Bitcoin Intraday Update.

Trend lines can be twisted and shifted around subjectively, but I always try to keep two trend lines parallel to each other. Two days ago Bitcoin rallied but soon resumed its downward trend. Bitcoin is only $600 away from that $6000 price level and I see no reason why this important $6000 price will get retraced.  If the 5 waves I’m counting out is close to being real, then a new Bitcoin record low will have little problem in being achieved.

This may still take well into next week when Bitcoin is in another downside breakout position. I wish I could paint a bullish picture, but this declining pattern shows we are in a bearish phase that could still last years.  Bear markets can take Fibonacci years to play out so a 3 or 4 month correction is just a small blip on the radar screens.  There are very few players in these futures contracts and not a single commercial trader has taken any positions at all.

Bitcoin investors are lucky in that any volatility is usually subdued when compared to the rest of the commodities universe, like oil or gold.  So far the trend is still down, with no real end in sight.

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Bitcoin Rally Update

Some experts have proclaimed that the Bitcoin rout is over and the next big bullish phase has started! What? Do they mean Bitcoin prices are going back above $19,000 again?  I doubt any big  Bitcoin bullish phase will happen, at least not until all 5 sets of Minor degree waves has completed.

You can hope, wish, pray and use Black Magic if you like, but doing those things will not help a bear market to miraculously turn into a bull market again. In order for that to happen Bitcoin needs buyers to come roaring back, but buyers are not coming back. Well over $500 billion has evaporated since the Bitcoin crash and there are no clear signs of this letting up.

Report: 9 Cryptocurrency Hedge Funds Have Closed in 2018 – CoinDesk

The news that hedge funds are closing their doors, is typical in a bear market. It also does not instill a lot of bullish confidence.  We are getting very close to the magic $6000 price level, where Bitcoins can get into another downside breakout position.  Another H&S pattern is also being created.

As of this morning I see that 1599 ICO’s have been issued. I watch this number for signs of it slowing down or even reversing.  Bitcoin prices could head up to the declining trend line, but then the bearish phase should resume.

I will not produce Bitcoin wave counts for every little turn as I will not produce mindless trade setups.  The Crypto market is a very small part of the big capital base and until it can show big cycles like gold or silver does, it is not an investment. If the new Bitcoin devotees talk about Bitcoin investing, then you better know the difference between investing and speculation. Most Bitcoin speculators have no clue what technical analysis is, never mind getting good at it.

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Bitcoin And Ripple Bear Market Review

Yesterday Cryptos suffered another down day with all Cryptos seeing red! Last week the Bitcoin price level did not hold as the bears are still firmly in control.

The thing is you can’t blame the short sellers as you need a long established market to get that far which no Crypto has done yet. Since early January the Crypto world has been in a bear market  and there is no end in sight at this time. Bitcoin has a lot further to sink and soon we will be up against that magic $6000 number,  and another huge double bottom. The majority of investors doesn’t know what a bear market is and they sure don’t know the difference between investing and speculation. Bitcoin has no established cycle patterns except for one big move up and now close to a 3 month trip down.

Many Bitcoin investors think they are smart, but since when is the crowd smart enough to know how to invest in a crashing asset class?  By “April Fools Day”  Bitcoin will be starting its fourth month in a bear market. One metric I use to see this bear market, is by tracking the total capital space.  This peak capital base ended at about $814  billion USD! On Thursday this number dipped to $256 Billion. At this time $558 billion US of investors’ money, has evaporated into thin air! This is a clear signal that the majority of Crypto investors has been losing money since 2018 started.

One other metric I use is the amount and rate that new ICOs are being issued. In a full week, this works out to an average of just under 20 per week, and by early April we would have 1600 ICOs ready and willing to steal investors’ money!

College students are secretly mining bitcoin in their dorms: ‘On room check days, I have to put a blanket over it’ – MarketWatch

When investors lose money, then the first thing they do is point the finger of blame at anybody else except themselves. . It’s never the stupid investors buying at “Mania” tops that get the blame, but the experts can dig up all sorts of reasons why Cryptos have been crashing. Wall Street is good at inventing financial instruments, as the 2007-2009 market crash clearly demonstrated! Remember all the toxic mortgage investments they came up with during that time?

Continue reading “Bitcoin And Ripple Bear Market Review”

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Bitcoin Still Heading South, With Ethereum Commentary.

From a list of about 1594 Cryptos, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are the top three and in that order. So far Bitcoin shows no sign of slowing down as yesterdays double bottom did not hold. We may have to wait until the next ice age before we will ever find the support for the next major Bitcoin bull market to come.

Of course that day may never come except for some surprise rally that will run out of steam as well. Iv’e kept my wave count about the same, but started my 1-2, 1-2 wave count. To extend a 5th wave decline I would be looking for at least three sets of 1-2 moves.  They may be waking up to the fact that Cryptos are not that safe as even Ethererum is taking huge losses. I don’t think Bitcoin investors realize the fact, when a bull market is over. Even in stocks, some  analysts can sense that the bull market is over. Investing and speculation are two different strategies and I loath it when they are talking about “Investing In Bitcoin”, even after it crashed from $20,000 down to $6000.

Some “Bitcoin” investors think there should be no crashes as they cry about it when they get wiped out.  All Cryptos started from zero and they sure can head back to zero. One main reason is that Bitcoin has no “intristic” value.  Anybody that makes a comparison, calling Bitcoin a “gold”  replacement has  little gold history knowledge. Ten years from now the only Bitcoins you may find are the collectors tokens we can import from China. I made a necklace with one of my Bitcoin tokens and I sold it right off my neck in a restaurant for $20!

Continue reading “Bitcoin Still Heading South, With Ethereum Commentary.”

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Intraday Bitcoin Review: There Is Only One Of 3 Ways it Can Go!

Any basic chart is a two dimensional thing and no 3-d or holograms will form. North, South or East are our only three choices. For all of March so far Bitcoins have been heading South, or South-East. Will it break out, slice the top trend line and head North again? My wave counts are very speculative and can get trashed as soon as they are posted.

I’m working a basic diagonal set of 5 waves heading down a potential 5th by one higher degree. This is a pretty deadly combination, as normally it would signal the end of a bearish phase. The problem with that is that Bitcoin has “NO” track record of establishing big cycles. Every asset class has huge cycles in it, but Bitcoin is only heading down?

From my Cycle degree perspective a true bull market will consistently leave old highs in the dust, but Bitcoin is no longer doing that. Bitcoin has been in a bearish phase for well over 3 months, (all of 2018) which could just be getting started.

To be in a real bull market, the $20,000 price level must be left in the dust! How long are those investors going to hang onto Bitcoins if it keeps falling in price? They will get pissed off and when they try to sell them, they find out they can’t get US dollar back into their checking accounts. The flow of US dollar cash has to flow into your home account smoother and faster than it goes into your Bitcoin trading account.

All the Bitcoins in the world will be no good, if there is no smooth flow of funds back to you. My personal guideline is, if you can’t get your money in less than 5 business days, then chances are good you don’t own it.

College students use financial aid money to invest in bitcoin – Business Sector

Warning, crypto investors: You must pay taxes on your bitcoin – MarketWatch

Most of the Bitcoin winners will find out the hard way when the IRS hounds them for not paying income tax on their Bitcoin sales.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio has compressed from about 15:1 to a present 6.4:1. It now only takes 6.4 gold Troy ounces to buy one Bitcoin.

The 1987 crash was a computer driven crash, but Bitcoins have displayed no such sharp decline yet. Even if the Bitcoin prices crash like the 1987 crash, it does not mean that a bull market will kick in. In the long run Bitcoin prices could flat line and never recover. It is also interesting to note that the COT report shows no sign of the non-commercials playing the Bitcoin game. The Speculators are doing all the Bitcoin futures speculation. They are only net short Bitcoin by a ratio of 1.35:1, which is nothing in the big scope of things.  Even with the speculators I would like to see more of an extreme ratio, which could be a potential bear trap.

All the Cryptos capitalization is only about 329 billion today, which is also just a very small part of the market. Let’s put it this way, “any super Bitcoin crash will not take the general stock markets down, even though the Nasdaq could implode for different reasons.

I may only update Bitcoin charts once a week either on Sundays or early Mondays, as it is not at the top of my priority list.

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Bitcoin Update: Start Of The April Contract

The March Bitcoin Cobe futures contract has stopped working this week, so we must move into the next month of April, 2018.  I can’t go back further than the wave 3 bottom for now, but that may change early next month.  Volume will pickup, but it is so slow that I can’t see anything in the May contract month.  Bitcoin has been hammering up to the $12,000 price level and has now shown its true colors by resuming its bearish trend.

From a potential Minor degree 4th wave top, I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2 count.  This would give us an extended wave 5 decline, but with wave three of the 5th wave would be extended.  From this point forward only the wave 3-4s should play out which would be about 4 more sets.  Each wave 3-4 counter rally will become bigger in degree levels as we progress down.  Sure, this may not work, but it is always the first thing that must get eliminated, forcing us to look for an alternate wave count.

There is no chance for Bitcoin to magically transform back into a bull market, no matter how long you keep Bitcoins in your electronic wallet.  Make no mistake, Bitcoins are considered commodities and the only difference is Bitcoin Miners mine electrons, invisible to the naked eye. When Bitcoins keep crashing in price, then they will approach the cost of mining. I use the $4000 price level for that,  after which we could see Bitcoin miners disappear and go out of business.

Sounds familiar?  It happens all the time in the real metals world, as they all need cheap power to keep running. Bitcoin investors can only bet on one direction, which the Forex crowd has been able to do  since the beginning.

Lack of real short players keeps the Bitcoin patterns rather subdued, with not too many wild reversals. Of course that could start to change.

Right now we have another H&S pattern forming which could be the setup for another downside breakout. Eventually the $6000 price level will also get retraced.

Total Cryptocurrencey capital base is about $328 billion US dollars, down dramatically since the hay days when Cryptos hit $813 billion.

$485 billion US dollars have gone up in smoke in little over 2 months. The pace that new ICOs are coming out is about 11 per week, which should slow down if no new suckers will buy into this Bitcoin madness. The 24 hour Bitcoin volume has also been crushed, so all this does not bode well for Bitcoins prices to soar again.

Even after any 5 wave decline has finished, any Bitcoin charts can start to flat-line never to rise again.

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Bitcoin Intraday Update

I have moved the top horizontal line down to the $11,800 price level just so it is viable with this chart, but $12,000 would still be the magic number to break.  The volume related to  these futures contracts is thin to say the least, and I also have to move into the April very soon.  These H&S patterns I’m showing are very bearish signals, as the total capital volume has been crashing for many weeks already.

The speculators, who are the only people playing this Bitcoin contract are net short by a ratio of 1.37:1 which does not help the idea that some super Bitcoin bullish move is just around the corner.  This morning the Bitcoin price took another nosedive,  and all we have to do is wait to see if it retraces into another lower low.

I’m looking for another 3-4-5 wave set, and hopefully we will get some extensions thrown in, to give us a jolly good show.  It’s no longer about a wave count, as there is not enough volume. No volume, no real buyers, and when buyers don’t show up, the price can only go down.  No Tulip buyers showed in February of 1637 and within months the Tulip Mania ended as Tulip prices crashed.

I might not be able to catch the smallest turnings but I will try to catch the bigger reversals.  Bitcoin is “Funny Money”, just like the Super Mario Coins you collect in the video game.

I have spent enough time on Bitcoins for now and something radical must happen to break Bitcoins out of this bearish mode, and simple news events will not do it. Once a bearish trend takes hold, “no” amount of “jawboning” will cause it to change directions.

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The Great Bitcoin Crash Of 2018!

One reason that the Bitcoins demise is useful, is that it is a prelude of what may happen in a Primary degree “C” wave decline. The only thing different will be, in that we should get 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. We are also coming to the end of all March contracts and the April contracts are still very sparse, producing poor quality charts. Any new useful charts in the April contracts may only allow me to go back to the February crash bottom of wave 3.

I dislike using trend lines very much, because they are so abused they end up having little meaning. All 4 bearish trend lines are based on the 2 points of the bottom trend line. I mark the $20,000 price peak as an unknown position, and not as an X wave. The center line gives  us an outline of one lower degree, and the 4th top trend line projects where any early resistance may start.

I may be far too optimistic about a $4000 Bitcoin price crash, as both volume and total Crypto capitalization has been crashing dramatically.  I looked at 114 countries and their mining costs, and I only found 27 that had mining costs below $4000.  Once Bitcoin mining costs exceed the cash price of a single Bitcoin, then Bitcoin miners will begin to shut down.

This is not rocket science folks, but basic Mining 101.  The news you may be hearing about this Crypto world being a “New Era” is all bullshit, as those claims have been made at the tops of “every” market bubble since the 1600’s.

My wave 3 in Minor degree could also be an “A” wave, but I will explore that at a later date. The problem with an “A” wave is that I don’t like to see a zigzag correction in a zigzag.  In order for Bitcoins to still be in a bull market, Bitcoins must eventually surpass $20,000 USD again. Bitcoin charts are not giving us higher highs, so there is no chance that we are still in a Bitcoin bull market.

The Bitcoin world has been bleeding red during most of last week, so those are not optimistic indicators. If any good news does not sustain a rally, then that also indicates that Bitcoin is still in a big bearish phase.

Continue reading “The Great Bitcoin Crash Of 2018!”

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Bitcoin Intraday Bear Market Crash Update

At $9200 support for Bitcoin failed, with a downside breakout. Today’s bottom at $8500 was helped by the previous wave two bull market in early February.  Even though these are futures contracts, the wave patterns are not as violent as any real leveraged futures contracts are. Even when Bitcoins are in a diagonal decline, they still have a smooth flow to them.

It took me awhile to see this, but the different flow pattern is due to the fact that the majority cannot directly short Bitcoins. Since Bitcoin future’s came out, the commercial traders still have “NO” positions in either direction. Only the speculators are playing and they have been net short, since the futures started trading. $12,000 was the magic Bitcoin number to beat and Bitcoin refused the challenge to cross that line.  This has produced a major H&S pattern that not to many Bitcoin investors even see. Those that are into Bitcoin and think they are “investing” can’t even read charts, never mind  learning the basics about, what “Technical Analysis” is. “TA” is an invention created back in the 70’s when computers really started to improve in speed.

At this time I’m very confident in saying that Bitcoin prices can fall well below $5000 and even $4000 would not surprise me. At $4000 USD,  Bitcoin is getting close to the cost of producing a single Bitcoin.  This will force many Bitcoin miners to go out of business.

The total Crypto ICO list will start to shrink when this starts to happen. At this time about 10 per week have been added onto the list.

In the last two months or so, Cryptocurrency capitalization has crashed from $829 billion, to $369 billion. $460 billion has evaporated  in an electronic puff of smoke. This shows me there is no real stomach to jump onto the Bitcoin craze when prices are free falling. Talk to any younger Bitcoin investors and chances are good they know little or nothing about “TA”.

My question is, “at what wave count that my wave 5s in Minor degree will end at”?  Bitcoin, which some call “Super Mario Coins”, or “Bitch Coins”, could eventually “flat line”and never rise from the ashes again. Bitcoin is a commodity with no intrinsic value and no amount of denying this fact will change where Bitcoins will end at. The fact that the SEC will force Crypto exchange registration is a good thing, as all the big illegal players need to be weeded out!

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Bitcoin Rally Review: $12,000 Or Bust?


Looking for a different perspective, I decided to use the line type settings. With line type settings most of the erroneous spikes disappear or smooth out, and no gaps will show up. Switching between bars and line settings can also change any wave count.

The first thing I saw was that it can work as a diagonal decline. If the crash to that $6000 bottom is a “C” wave, completing wave 3 in Minor degree, then this Bitcoin bear market is not finished yet.  The problem is, where in this 4th wave rally are we?

I don’t have the magic location, but I love the challenge of counting out a set of 5 waves  that may be impulse related. Besides that, this market decline is good practice because we will get the same puzzle again, once the general markets hit their market lows. The only difference will be that the last part of the DJIA decline will be a 4th wave in Intermediate degree, followed by 5 waves in Minor degree.

Over all volumes in Bitcoin trading has been dramatically curtailed, which tells me Bitcoins as an investment is fading fast.

Over 1541 Cryptos are presently posted, with a total capitalization of about $445 billion, US dollars. Since its hay days of 2017, about $275  billion US dollars have gone up in digital smoke, and I’m sure that smoke will keep on coming.

Sheila Bair says bitcoin has no intrinsic value — but neither does the dollar – MarketWatch

This describes my sentiments exactly as most Bitcoin investors don’t even know what “intrinsic” value is.

I like 4th waves, but they can be pretty tough to decipher. I consider 4th waves (up or down) to be the most important wave. Keeping my degree levels low still makes sense, because you will “never” see,  5 waves down in Primary degree on a 90 minute, intraday chart. Even 5 waves down in Intermediate degree may never show up!

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is at 8.47:1, and has only come close to this 3 times in the last year. A double or triple top in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio does not bode well for the price of Bitcoins. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not have any forecasting value for Bitcoins, but I’m sure this ratio will shrink much more.  A shrinking or compressing ratio means that you need fewer gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin.

If the rally that has completed was a 4th wave rally, then Bitcoins will crash below $6000. Of course, if we are in a triangle that would drag the time out some more.

I’m very bearish on Bitcoins, and hanging on to them when they can crash $4000 makes no sense to me.  Even after all this starts to play out, then Bitcoins price could flat line, just like Tulips did in 1637!

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Bitcoin Futures Bullish Phase Review

Since the February bottom Bitcoin did not inspire great confidence that Bitcoins will soar to new record breaking highs. At about the $11,800 price level Bitcoins seems to be running into a brick wall, but as usual looks can be deceiving. We have a pretty good looking H&S forming, but we also know that many times that markets have soared from this type of setup.

Any diagonal bullish phase can still push Bitcoin higher in the near term, so all hope for this bullish phase to halt is not completely lost.

Higher lows are the signs of a bull market. So in order for Bitcoins fit the description of a conventional bull market, it “must” travel well above $20,000 in the future. Since these futures have started trading no commercial traders have taken any positions in any direction. Only the speculators are playing this market, and they are very pessimistic as they have net short positions.

When the experts talk about investing in Bitcoins then they know nothing about leverage. Being a Bitcoin investor will eventually shred your account as the violent moves can destroy anything in its path.

Crypto Craze Has Hydro-Quebec CEO’s Phone ‘Ringing Off the Hook’ – Bloomberg

Big Bitcoin miners are moving to jurisdictions that have cheaper power.

Any major power outages or some solar flare smashing into the earth can stop the Bitcoin network in its tracks. Are investors running into Bitcoins to sidestep the stock markets?,  but if this is true, then when stocks make another huge bullish move, Bitcoins should crash.

As of this morning 1531 ICOs exist, which works out to about 10 new coin offerings per week. Total capitalization is sitting at $450 billion, down quite a bit from the $730 billion it once had. At one time I swore that the Crypto world was heading to a trillion dollars of capitalization, due to the momentum it had. So far the capitalization trend is smashing up against a brick wall.

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Cobe Bitcoin Futures Closing in on $12,000

In the last two weeks the Bitcoin bears have been slaughtered and shredded by the bulls sharp horns. Technically speaking, if Bitcoins are in a true bull market, then it “must” break that magic $20,000 price level again. Why “must” Bitcoins break that $20,000 price level?  Because that’s what bull markets do, and what the EWP teaches us is supposed to happen.

I have drawn 3 conventional trend lines, and which line will get sliced first? At close to $12,000 Bitcoin futures are running into potential resistance created in the 2017 decline.

Anonymous Cryptocurrency Trader Buys $400 Million in Bitcoin | Investopedia

Maybe this Bitcoin price rise is all about the mysterious trader that bought $400 million of Bitcoins when Bitcoins slumped in price. News like that can get all the Crypto fans excited. Bitcoin fever is very infectious, so I had to buy a bunch of fake Bitcoins to touch and hold. I ordered them in from China and show them to people. The reaction on peoples faces when they see the coin is priceless!

I showed the coins to my friends and they all wanted 1 or 2 right away. Anyways, I will be getting more Bitcoin collector rounds. I fully understand that any physical Bitcoins we may see are fakes, but they sure can become great collectors items. The Bitcoins I have contain one Troy ounce of pure copper, (99.99%) plated with a thin layer of gold. How much gold plating that are on these coins is unknown, and they may need to get x-rayed to find out.

Ethereum chief warns cryptocurrencies could ‘drop to near-zero at any time’ – MarketWatch

Any of these Cryptos can go to zero, so a physical fake Bitcoin will look nice up on your wall. The Crypto universe is still growing with about 1548 ICO’s on the list.  So far the total capitalization of the Cryptos peaked at about $512 billion this morning, which was the highest in all of February.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is at 8.63:1 this morning from a peak of over 15:1.

The commercials have not opened a single position long or short since Bitcoin futures started to trade. This tells me there is no interest from the commercial trader’s perspective.  Only the trend chasers are chasing Bitcoins down with their net short positions.

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Bitcoin Is The Bear Market Over?

Has the Bitcoin decline stopped and has now returned to a bull market.?  I doubt it, as this present rally is not producing the impulse waves required. Bitcoin definaly sliced through the top trend line so that alone will bump the degree level up by at least one degree.

Iceland to use more energy mining bitcoin than powering its homes | Metro News

Bitcoin mining takes up a massive amounts of electricity and computing power,  where the miners in Iceland consume more power than the entire Icelandic grid needs to run its homes. Many miners are moving to places that have the lowest electricity rates like Quebec.

Even though this rally looks impressive I think Bitcoin can still fall well below $3000 per coin. Of course, this rally could just be coinciding with the stock market rally,  so we will see how long this rally will last once the markets resume their bearish trend. After all it was the Nasdaq bull market that spawned this Bitcoin Mania so Bitcoin Mania can also keep dying right along with the Nasdaq.  A $4000 rally does not make a bull market, but it sure gets the bullish investors excited again,  with the injection of “Hope”. Hope that Bitcoins keep going up in price.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio touched 7.48:1 this afternoon, which is about a 50% crash from its high ratio of 15:1.

The amount of new Cryptos seems to keep going and now registers 1533 ICO’s,  with a total capital base of $467 billion US dollars.

Investors think they can hide Bitcoin gains from the government, but I think this is a big mistake in their thinking. Bitcoins are unstable at best and nobody in their right mind will hold Bitcoins when they start crashing again. Imagine buying a house with the price of $20,000 for a single Bitcoin,  and as soon as you get these Bitcoins they start to crash to $6000 in little more than a month. Bitcoins will crash faster than any real-estate will, so your Bitcoin windfall can turn into a disaster very quickly.

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Bitcoin Futures Rally Review

In the last day or so Bitcoin has surged which is not the start of a runaway bull market, but can be a simple inverted zigzag. This grinding bear market has not acted like some fantastic looking flat or zigzag. The moves would be far more violent than we are presently getting.

None of the declines have been sheer vertical drops typical of a C5 wave in a flat or zigzag. I have said in the past that, any asset class that starts from “Zero” can end at “Zero”.

The funny part about this is that the mainstream media is starting to talk like that!

Get Ready for Most Cryptocurrencies to Hit Zero, Goldman Says – Bloomberg

The total Cryptocurrencies numbers have actually dropped in the last few days from 1514 back down to 1506. This number may even decline some more if they keep shelving projects due to lack of interest, bankruptcies, or just too costly to implement.

The Bitcoin ratio is 6.32:1 which is and extreme reading, but who says that the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can’t hit 1:1.  One of the lowest readings I have is a ratio of 1.74:1, so any 2:1 ratio would not surprise me. Does this mean that Bitcoins can start into a super bullish phase? I doubt it,  as all Cryptocurrencies can flat line just like Tulips did.

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Bitcoin Eradication Program In Progress!

There is little chance that the entire Crypto scene will just suddenly get up and soar to new world records.  Ain’t going to happen! Chances are good Bitcoin will flat line once it crashes well below the $5000 price level. Any lower and it will cost more to mine Bitcoins that what miners can sell it for. They just about need a small nuclear reactor attached to the Bitcoin mining operation to stay profitable.

The bear market pattern in Bitcoins shows nothing that some miracle, “ABC” correction is taking place, so in the long run the wave count could die a slow and painful death.  I have no sympathy for those that are losing their shirt,  as this “mania” was pretty clear from the onset.  We also had enough warnings by mania watchers, that the Bitcoin Mania was out of control.

Pretty soon it will only be worth it for an update once every few weeks as interest in all things Crypto wanes and disappears in the dustbins of history.

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Bitcoin Decline Taking A Break?

Last week the Bitcoin slide seems to have come to a halt, at least temporary. Nothing is certain but on Friday Cryptocurrencies jumped by $39 billion, with about 1507 total cryptocurrencies being published. The pace of ICOs seems to be slowing down a bit  with the addition of only one or two ICOs in a week.  If I use trend lines, then I always use them in perfect parallel first, in this case my bottom trend line is the base ending on another spike on Friday.

My wave counts are not trustworthy to say the least, but I see no real switch back to a bull market just yet.  We would need to see a much steeper decline than what we have had so far. So far about $11,520 has been erased from the Bitcoin ledgers, as the world seems to attack this unregulated market. Those people that tell you that Bitcoin is an investment have no clue in what they are talking about as nothing this unstable should be called an investment in the first place.

I ordered in 11 of the fake Bitcoins and I showed my friends my order sheets. They wanted Bitcoins as a novelty item as well, so chances are good I can sell all of them as they will show their Bitcoins to friends as well.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America bar bitcoin buys with a credit card – Business Sector

Bitcoin is under attack on a fronts with most banks no longer willing to allow customers to purchase Bitcoins with their credit cards.

Nothing that has happened after the Bitcoin bubble burst has surprised me one bit, as this Bitcoin Mania could be a one hit wonder! Just in case you just walked out of a cave,  you are witnessing the crash of the biggest mania in market history surpassing even the Tulip Mania  by a long shot.

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Bitcoin Bear Market And Robberies Continue!


Japan Gets Tougher On All Crypto Exchanges After Coincheck Hack

Masked Gunmen Steal ‘Fortune’ in Bitcoin in UK Robbery –

Coincheck Confirms Crypto Hack Loss Larger than Mt Gox – CoinDesk

Bitcoin – Millennials Fake Gold | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge


The news about Bitcoin has not been kind as the real state of Crypto coins revels itself.  All these new Bitcoin billionaires are painting a bulls eye on their faces when they openly brag about their wealth they think they have. Bitcoin has been going sideways, and it still can swing in both directions before it decides on a new trend, or to finish an old trend.

Either way it doesn’t look like Bitcoin is going to go “Vertical” any time soon due to the fact that major groups are stealing Bitcoins by hacking, or now home invasions. From my perspective, this Crypto market is the Wild West, where there is no town marshal. Nobody is responsible for what they do so 100’s of millions USD valued Bitcoins have already gone missing, and many more will still disappear.

I visited my bullion dealer who was very open about the fact that gold owners were coming in and dumping their gold holdings to buy Bitcoins. Dumping gold to buy Bitcoins is like chasing Fool’s Gold thinking its real gold.

There are many fake physical Bitcoins being stamped and sold on the open market as my bullion dealer showed me one. I had to have one, so I ordered 6 fake Bitcoin rounds online, which I will use to see the reactions on peoples faces. These fake Bitcoins have a 99.999% pure gold plating on it and I will find someone to get it tested once I take physical possession of the Bitcoins.

This may not happen for several more weeks, but my gut feeling is that I should have ordered twice as many.  I think people love them as novelty items and I want to show them to people before I think about ordering more. My landed cost for a single fake Bitcoin will be about $4 CAD.

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Bitcoin Futures Intraday Update:

In my last post I showed an Intermediate degree “W” wave. Well, We could be in another one.   The one main problem I have with counting it as a zigzag pattern is that the A5 and B5 waves are very close to being the same angle.  Real zigzags are far more violent and contain far more diagonals wave structures as well, so for now I will bury the idea of a zigzag.

I believe we could be starting another new set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, but he only way that can even start to get confirmed is when a new Bitcoin low is reached. In other words Bitcoin patterns have to act the part of an impulse.

Markets have a nasty habit of trashing wave counts and opinions, so when this impending wave count goes off the rails, then most of the wave count has to be instantly trashed. The worst thing we can do is carry garbage wave counts with us into the future. The wave patterns should take a little longer to play out, so we have to have a bit more patience as this bear market starts to get serious.

There are now 1491 Cryptos competing to take money from gullible investors, with the total capitalization back up at about 565 billion US dollars.  These numbers shift dramatically and can swing, many billions in just hours. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is still  compressed at 8.5:1 and based on that ratio Bitcoins are extremely cheap. Don’t trust this for Bitcoin use, as we could be facing a new decline, but I will still post the Gold/Bitcoin ratio when I can.

They also have a COT report on Bitcoin futures traders positions, and so far not a single commercial trader has taken a single position in any short or long positions.

This speaks volumes as they show no interest in taking any side. The only traders playing with these futures contracts are the speculators which are net short now as they were in the beginning. Even their numbers will not be any help if Bitcoin prices start to flat line.

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Bitcoin Takes A Beating Again.

The majority of all Cryptos took another big hit this morning and Bitcoin was no exception. In order for Bitcoin to be in a massive bull market the price eventually has to exceed over $20,000 again.   So far, nothing has indicated that Bitcoin is ready to soar one more time. Yeah, right!  All Cryptocurrencies started from zero, so they can always end up at zero again.  At one time the total capitalization charged up to $736 billion, which has never been breached since. This morning the total capitalization of Cryptos was at $501 billion US dollars.

They took a brief rest during the holidays, but have resumed creating ICOs  at about the same pace. 1465 Cryptocurrenceies are out at this time, with a Gold/Bicoin ratio of 7.86:1. This is close to a rock bottom ratio already, but I must warn readers that the Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not mean anything in the long run. 3:1 is closer to rock bottom, but even than the Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not mean anything.

I see this all more like a Wild, Wild West show as we have Bitcoin bank robberies, Bitcoin Miner wallet robberies and massive denial of service attacks.

I’m sure that the Crypto coders also have accidental errors in the code to where each Crypto currency can be hacked. The massive Meltdown and Specter chip vulnerability issue just adds to the problems.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin Missing In relation to Mysterious Death of Exchange CEO –

They are still hunting the Bitcoins from the “Great Mt Gox Robbery” where I had my Bitcoins at. Their exchange got hacked and Bitcoins disappeared into thin air.

The investors that think that they are investing in Bitcoins must be smoking something, as I would not invest in anything that has so much fraud associated with it.


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Bitcoin Intraday Rally Update

This is the February contract. There is so little interest any any of these futures contracts that I may come to a point where I no longer can provide decent wave counts. If this doesn’t improve soon I may be forced to stop wave analysis on these charts. In the last day or so, the total Cryptocurrency capitalization base has  gained back about $156 billion. The total Crypto ICOs are sitting at 1448  with no change today.

You may have noticed I used a “W” wave in Intermediate degree, which I will use just as a temporary unknown position. I want to stress the fact that when I use any WXY thinking, then the “W” wave I use has a very strict rule. This rule is that any first “W” wave we think we see “Must” be a single zigzag!  It can’t be a flat,  as a flat would tell us that we are somewhere in a diagonal wave structure.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio also crashed in a spectacular fashion, making Bitcoins very cheap when we use the gold cash price to compare to. Just the shear fact that this Gold/Bitcoin ratio crashed is sending Bitcoin prices northward, at least in the short term.  Will we get another zigzag type bullish phase?  This is very uncertain at this time. In the bigger scope of things the Crypto meltdown is what happens when a perceived asset class gets out of control.

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Cryptocurrency Bloodbath Update.

Bitcoin bloodbath highlights these defensive cryptocurrency strategies – MarketWatch

During the night the Crypto coins continued with their decline, which some are calling a,  “Bloodbath”.  Maybe it’s just an old fashioned Meltdown and Specter issue!   🙄  They will use all sorts of  fundamental logic reasoning to explain the Crypto meltdown, but in the end it has nothing to do with logic, but has everything to do with our human emotions.

Some say they are still hoarding Bitcoins but would you hang onto Bitcoins if it were to crash to below $5000? The cost of mining a single Bitcoin is around $3300, so Bitcoin can always crash back down to the cost of mining.

On about the 12th of January the entire Crypto ICO capitalization peaked very close to $736+ Billion. Since then over $300 billion of US dollar capitalization has disappeared into thin air. Bitcoins were created out of thin air, and they are now evaporating right back to where they came from. Is this $300 billion, in the lost and found? Nope, no such luck as Cryptocurrencies capitalization goes up in a puff of electronic smoke.

This market is changing very fast and I think more downside is still to come. The last thing I would trust is any wave count, as all this could be just a one hit wonder. After all, did the price of Tulip bulbs keep going higher and higher with the Elliott Wave pattern?

Not only are US dollar values evaporating back into thin air, the Gold/Bitcoin ratio has “dramatically” shifted in the last month or so. This puts Bitcoins close to the extreme cheap side in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio. Even the Gold/Bitcoin ratio should not be trusted at any extreme.

The investors that went into debt to invest in Bitcoins are going to get hit the hardest as they doubled their leveraged. With all this US dollar value disappearing into thin air, it could bring down the financial system as well.  When the markets really start to implode, they could shed $30-$40 trillion by the time the dust settles.

Besides capital values disappearing into thin air the ICO’s on my list should also start to shrink from the peak of 1450.

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Crypto Crash! Bitcoin Sinking To New Lows

Early this morning Bitcoin futures chart plunged to a new record low of 11,900. There should be more downside coming, but so far it has been a choppy decline that looks like it may be a diagonal “C” wave. Usually there is a much bigger pattern difference between the “A5” wave and the “C5” wave.  For all this Bitcoin Mania to be in this true blue price bull market that so many claim is going to happen, we need a strong visible zigzag or flat correction.

I won’t even throw out the triangle pattern as any correction will just about do. Sure, a big jump could happen at any time, but Bitcoin seems to be on a downward spiral that nobody knows when it will end. Cryptocurrencies are being attacked around the world so I can see the lack of bullish enthusiasm for the Bitcoin price.

What happened to buying on the dips of this no brainer bull market? After all, isn’t the Bitcoin price supposed to go to a $1,000,000?   Back in the 70s the experts were all forecasting the $2000 gold price, yet it never reached that price level. Instead gold turned into a 20 year bear and a crushed price.

Investors didn’t learn anything at that time and they sure did not learn anything this time.  Most price forecasts are a figment of one’s imagination, as they are just numbers picked out of thin air.

A quick scan of my Crytocurrency list shows the “majority” of all the Cryptocurrencies took major price hits this morning as well. It’s not just a Bitcoin problem.  There are 1450 cryptocurrencies posted, with a total market capital soaring to over $720 billion US dollars. Well, this morning about $140 billion of it went up in electronic smoke. All those investors that just borrowed money to jump into this mania are now holding worthless paper. We can’t even call cryptocurrencies  “paper”, but it still took paper dollars to buy into digital coins. In todays world, it’s electrons that go up in smoke much easier than paper can, at least with paper dollars you can use it as toilet paper once it crashes. These numbers are changing very fast as latter this week $200 billion could be lost. There is a lot of money somewhere in the “Lost and Found” department. Good luck finding it as the, “Pot Of Gold” at the end of the Rainbow contains no digital coins.

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Bitcoin Still In A Bearish Phase.

Bitcoin’s price surge looks more like than – MarketWatch

There is never any shortage of wild optimism in stories about the perceived Bicoin bull market. The perception that Bitcoin is going to soar is misplaced, as the charts tell us the opposite could be happening. South Koren clampdown on Crypto trading has certainly helped to keep a lid on Bitcoin prices.

CryptoWatch: Cryptocurrencies see $100 billion hit amid South Korean clampdown – MarketWatch

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

With the recent discovery of chip vulnerabilities, across all  platforms, including Apple products. I consider this a huge issue as Meltdown and Spectre seems to allow direct access, to the ram memory of many devices.  I understand it’s a chip problem and many are scrambling to find a fix.

All I can say is, “stay on top of your updates, and update as soon as they are issued”.

My two parallel lines box in a diagonal move, complete with an expanded wave 4 counter rally. I switched this sideways pattern to a potential 4th wave counter rally with the 5th wave presently in progress. This present counter rally could drop like a rock as another zigzag needs to complete the 5th wave. On the count above, I skipped one wave and only labeled the second wave structure in a sequence. When this breaks to the downside we should be getting close to a new wave 1 but in Minuette degree.

Once that is actually confirmed, then we should expect another counter rally that can come back hard, as the bears get into another bear trap. From nearly $20,000 per Bitcoin to our present $14,000 price level, billions of Bitcoin value disappeared in an electronic puff of smoke.

I was dead wrong about new ICOs slowing down, as they took a rest during the holiday season. In the last week ICOs came back with a vengeance.  Hackers and crooks are attacking many Crypto exchanges and billions of Bitcoins disappear. The example of Cryptos taking a $100 billion hit is an example how Bitcoin value can disappear

There are presently 1408 cryptos out, with more still coming. The total capital of all Cryptos just surged past the $700 billion milestone and it sure still seems to have momentum behind it. At this rate the total capital will soon hit a trillion US dollars. Even $700 billion is impressive, which is pretty good for something created out of thin air.

The last thing I will do is create any intraday trade setups as this is what the majority are already doing. Anybody can create mindless numbers and letters in a computer, but knowing what they mean is a different ball game. From my perspective when the EWP is just used for short term trade setups, means they have no clue where the bigger trend is heading. I believe this is a very inefficient use of the EWP.

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Bitcoin Intraday Swan Dive Update.

After a near perfect double top, Bitcoin succumbed to the bears and proceeded to implode. How deep Bitcoin can crash down on this trip remains to be seen, but if the inverted flat has any teeth to it, then the $11, 500 price level will not provide any long term support. All these Cryptos are used for speculation, and it’s only extreme leverage why these Cryptos make such wild moves. I’m not against any speculation, but when markets go down, they produce all sorts of fears. When fear dominates, then irrational decisions become obvious.

Last year saw a massive explosion of different Cryptos coming online, but early in 2018 it seems like new ICOs issues have hit a brick wall.  The last number to beat is 1385, related coin offerings. It will remain to be seen if 2018 remains bullish with many more ICO offerings, but sooner or later the weeding out process will start.

It’s still far too early, for any Gold/Bitcoin ratio calculations to be taken seriously, but spot checking the ratio every few weeks will help.

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