Tag Archives: E-Mini SP500

SP500 Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

Getting tired of this so called “bull market” yet?  This market has been keeping us confused as to what direction it really wants to go. Price is never going to tell us anything useful  becuase if it did, every average Joe and Jane investor would have been buying everything in sight at the 2009 bottom.

Many think this is a bull market because its still  going up in price. The sad fact remains is that there are always bear market rallies at every degree level. If the experts don’t know the diffrenece with a Minor degree counter rally, then they sure are not going to know when a  Primary degree bear market rally is in progress.

The rally for the last 2 months has been frusturating to say the least, but what stands out is that this rally is going against the bigger trend.  I just had to draw in the wedge which is another very useful indicator when used at the right time.  A potential “C” wave bullish phase could be finishing off, so investors are going to find out the hard way about the effects of a bear market rally once it resumes its bigger trend.

There is always a chance one more dash to the upside will happen, but I think this market is running on fumes. The 2550 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding, as any wave 3 declince will just rip through that support range with ease. To confirm any Minor degree run be it up or down, this wave two peak needs 5 waves down in Minute degree to help us identify the location we think we are in.

Not until we get another push to the downside, investors will remain oblivious to the depth of this impending bear market.  If we don’t suspect that a Cycle degree correction is coming then all support forecasts will be useless to say the least. We have to be open to the fact that any opening zigzag requires a 5-3-5 run so we have a long way to go. Another 4 months or so will get us to a potential bottom by September or October. Any counter rally at that time will also produce another fake bull market.  It may seem a bit long in this counter rally but I have no doubt that this could all pick up in speed in a dramatic fashion.

As each stage happens then they all help in pointing us to where we are in the bigger picture. Talking about any move early is the key because after it happens, its pretty useless information. Fears of a depression will be in the news but markets do the opposite of fundamentals like they did in March of 2009.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

While a few of the other indices have scored new record highs, the DJIA and SP500 have been lagging, It’s not that I’m looking for the SP500 to catch up, but if the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 correct the SP500 would also correct. Since April the SP500 has been in choppy rise that has little to do with an impulse, but it can still work as a “C” wave bullish  move.  Short term I’m not happy with any wave count I might come up with in the indices, so I don’t fill out all the little waves as the bigger degree level is more important.

Since February this bullish phase is starting to last longer than what I would expect out of a minor degree move, but that is what we have to deal with.  The VIX has also crushed to new lows with  some analsyts being so bullish on stocks they sound like the VIX is going to zero.  All this could still carry on until the March peak has been exceeded. When it ends all support will break down, but investors just love to buy high and then sell lower in a panic to get out. Buyers keep coming out of the woodwork, and investing into the peak of  world record high stock markets. FOMO is the big reason but being bullish when the planet is bullish will just give us the same results as the majority get.

A short term bearish move is not enough for a Cycle degree correction to be completed, and markets never stay at “Permanent highs”. Sooner or later the BS, (Bullish Sentiment) will hit the fan as bears always attack from above and it usually comes as a surprise.  Bull markets are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so I see it as just a matter of time before  any bullish phase is finishing.

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Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

The markets took a dip this morning but that does not insure anything at this time. I have different wave positions in most of the big indices I cover, so I have to practice a bit of cosmetic wave counting for the short term. I only have to keep going back to the January 2018 peak as at this time it could be pretty secure with a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. The patterns are ugly by any streach of the imagination, but they also have a tendency to smooth out over time.  We still need for this market to retrace “All” 2018 bottom support prices as that is what it will take to help us to decide if we are over into the bigger correction.

A simple little 20% correction will not do it folks. At a minimum the 1800 price level must get retraced, wiping out the entire 5th wave bullish phase in Intermedetae degree. Even then 1800 may only give us temporary support, so buying on the dips will still be far too early. Not until we reach any Primary degree “A” wave can we play a bullish phase, and even then you don’t want to make any big aggressive bullish moves at that time.

As long as the mass media talks about, “buying” the dips it tells me that they have no clue, to the size of this bear market to come.

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SP500 Intraday Bullish Phase Update

So far this phase of the stock market has done nothing by soar in one direction and then move right back down again. Investors are having difficulty in finding a lasting trend. From the April low we could still be in a diagonal ‘C” wave rally. From the April peak, the SP500 crashed again but added a 3 wave zigzag move to a lower low.  This little 3 wave structure doesn’t fit unless it is part of an expanded pattern. If that is the case then this market could crash to the May lows, after which another shocking rally could soar past the March high.

I would have little room to spare if the next move happens, but final ending diagonal 5th waves can produce moves that will surprise many of us. There is nothing here that indicates that a bull market correction is already over. Any Cycle degree correction needs much more time and depth, before a new bull market will be ready to be unleashed.

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Mini SP500 Gyrations Review

The short term trend seems to be down as lower highs are still the main theme. I will stick to my wave 2 top in Minor degree at this time with this bearish mood now in its 4th month. Four months without any gains must be testing the patience of investors as they think this market is still going to the moon. The stock bulls are going to get slaughtered, so prepare your fridge for some fattened bull steaks, as the bears are sharpening their claws and will slice and dice every bull they attack! Nice bunch of bears we got here, as they will show no mercy until all the stock bulls shut up!

At least the January peak is still out in the open which helps as this is where the countdown begins. What a Cycle degree 4th wave correction will look like, is uncertain at this time, but a recent KOL posting has shown us a big inverted zigzag which can happen with the DOW. I favor a Cycle degree flat, but this count puts the “A” wave in Intermediate degree down and into the future.

I will be doing a bit of cosmetic wave counting, as in the beginning of any trend can be very fuzzy. Sooner or later the new trend will show itself to a greater crowd and that is when mini panics take place. The bigger the crowd the bigger the panics will be. A straight down crash like 1987 is unlikely as now there are limits to many of these contracts, which is supposed to limit the damage that can happen.

Increased volatility is a sign that a trend reversal is in play, so the volatility will not die down until any bearish trend reverses, and the bulls take back control.  I have at least 3 different stock indices patterns to deal with so this takes time to sort out. “Cosmetic” wave counting only last for a short time, but wave counters have been practicing “Cosmetic” wave counting for decades. They have been getting away with it, because very few people understand the EWP!

No doubt about it, I was a cosmetic counter as I was stuck in GSC degree which was very unsatisfactory work. The amount of bull markets that have been missed by professional wave analysts is staggering, but luckily people have short attention spans and cosmetic wave counting will continue to flourish. I’m a “structural’  wave analysts, which means I always go “back” in time to make sure the beginning structure is correct. Going back to 1929 and going over the entire Cycle degree impulse many thousands of times is too much like hard work. It gave me much needed discipline in my wave counting and I will always keep doing it when Minor degree waves don’t act like they are supposed to.   The hunt for the “missing” 1-2 Primary degree wave count, has largely been ignored, but it is the key that unlocks the wave counts in the present.

At this time I have recorded about 27 wave three Cycle degree peaks which nobody on the internet is even doing. Technically, if all my work was moved up by only “one” degree,  I would have 27 Supercycle degree wave 3 peaks. Since 2000 not a single wave structure of SC degree has ever formed, as very specific sequences “must”  form in order to be past any Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Many idealized SC and GSC degree patterns have already been posted years ago, but they will be collecting electronic dust until at least 2029!

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SP500 Intraday Bearish Outlook.

My ending diagonal may not happen as the markets still have downside pressure today. I did change my degree level to an intermediate degree “B” wave top. Any decline has to be 5 waves in Minor degree, not Minute degree.  I have multiple different tops between 5 different indices and sorting them out will take time. This is my third bear market since the 2000 peak and I’m very stubborn in sorting out tops.  We need a long set of 5 waves in Minor degree, which could  land us directly on the “A” wave in Primary degree.  If this wave count has more validity to it, then it can stretch and extend dramatically. It sure would help to answer the question what type of a correction Cycle degree wave 4 will have. I think I can still put any Cycle degree triangle pattern back into my inventory as any Cycle degree correction should happen in much less time

If this continues, then all support below this chart will not hold.

We will be finishing the third month of this bearish phase and that is not nearly enough time to finish a big correction. We could be heading into the summer  where the winds start blowing from the NW  much stronger flipping our little “sailboats” upside down.

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Catching A Falling Knife?

The markets had an exciting afternoon, as it seems the bottom fell out! Don’t let that fool you because that drop has all the markings of a zigzag correction. I deliberately left all other wave counts bare until after this wave count fails. Folks, I’m showing what could be a diagonal 4th wave zigzag crash, and we could see a rocking bullish phase return.  It is clearly an ending diagonal at this time because wave 4 is well inside wave two parameters. Wave 2 and wave 4 zigzags look identical, but they are still very different as wave 4 subdivides much better.

With a potential rising wedge which is mostly used for bull markets. If we look to the start of the top wedge line, what the hell do we see?  Another H&S that helped to determine a top. If the market is still bullish then this top trend line could get lifted. Exceeding March highs would be nice, but the SP500 should not push to new record highs.

This diagonal which is in Minute degree also changes the entire degree I have been using since the wave 3 top. I mentioned that this market was in a pattern with not very smooth flowing moves. Plus, it was taking  too long to resume the bigger decline, so this impending little bear trap will answer more of my questions. I have run into many of these types of diagonals and they sure will not be the last that we will run into.

The more this market gyrates the more conflicting fundamentals we will read about. This will confuse the majority and we end up having no clue which direction this market is going.  This could all happen in a very short time ending close to the end of the month or early May.

If this decline clears below my wave 2, then this wave count is instantly trashed

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SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update.

Since the January top it looks like a nice 5 wave decline, but it has not been flowing as nicely as I expect, from a 5 wave decline in Minor degree.  The DOW and the Nasdaq have both created wave peaks that just do not fit into the bigger picture very well. I did go back to the 2016 peak where the wave 1-2 in Minor degree sits, so instead of a Cycle degree peak it could be a Minor degree peak. The bottom trend line from wave two, can now fit with the bottom in early April.  Right now the markets are in a decline and it will be critical to see if it turns again and creates yet another higher high.

Any 5th wave can form a diagonal wave pattern so this could get very choppy in the short term.  Any new record lows will kill this wave count, but I have to run this wave count to eliminate it.  We are in a decline, but the SP500 could turn into a correction, and a mini bear trap.  Any dip below the diagonal wave 2, would also kill this bullish wave count, so many things can go wrong in a short period of time.

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Mini SP500 2000-2018 Review: Buying The Dips?

When intraday gyrations seem a bit foggy, then it is always a good time to review the big picture, looking at where we came from, and then where we are heading to.  Analysts are becoming frothy again as they say this market has turned and all new record highs are coming. The crashing of the VIX confirms it as they say that bigger bullish moves are ahead of us.

We can go back a relatively short time period to the 2000 peak where the majority were also very bullish but yet the markets imploded, just like they did again in the 2008 crash. Now those crashes were dips as well, but the majority were sellers, not buyers at the previous two lowest dips.

The majority of experts have no clue how deep the next bottom will dip down to, so those investors and their clients are going to go down with the ship because they refuse to ignore financial history.

I show two stages for the next decline with the SP500 1800 price level being a potential resting spot before a downside breakout happens.  The general guideline for the depths of bear market retracements is near the bottom of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. If we have no clue what our 2018 peak actually is, then any previous 4th wave forecast is pretty meaningless. I have mentioned it a few times already, and that is “NO” 5th wave peak must be left “uncapped”, otherwise they have broken the wave sequence and we might as well be playing Snakes & Ladders!  BTW, in January, 2018 we have 2 ending 5th waves yet I left one uncapped. After a Primary degree 5th wave has peaked, then a Cycle degree number must find a permanent home.

The SP500 won’t even get close to the top of the previous 4th wave until it crashes through the 1600 price level, while SP500 700-800 would get us near the lows of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The 4th wave crash in Cycle degree is the real important dip as that is the only dip that will send the markets into another major bull market.  Flipping big wave counts around like a person flips burgers, is not my style as counted like that for over 15 years.

If you are looking for some SC or GSC degree wave count your not going to get it at Elliott Wave 5.0 as from my perspective, both of those degree levels are  still 11-12 years in the future. Don’t get me wrong, as we are still in SC degree wave 3, and still on GSC degree wave 3 as well. Both will never arrive if all 5 waves in Cycle degree are not found and confirmed.

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Is The Mini SP500 Going To The Moon?

I did have a very bullish wave count all done, where we are in a “C” wave bullish phase that would take out this 2810 peak above my wave 2 in Minor degree, if that becomes the case, then the wave 2 would just move over to the new peak and then the real wave 3 in Minor degree should get going.  We are bouncing of a strong double bottom, so eventually that bottom will get retraced when the downside breakout happens.  Right now 2680 could offer very stiff resistance, combine that with a potential inverted Megaphone, and we have the makings of another potential bull trap.  This would be a wave 2 top in Minute degree. By this Saturday we will have a new moon so any attempt in getting there may have serious problems.  🙄

This may drag on into next week, but US Tax Day is April, 17th which also could wreck havoc in the markets. If you haven’t noticed, many of the top tech companies are having problems all at the same time.  Markets don’t stop on a dime, so when the trend does start to change, volatility starts to explode.

I have not seen so many crybabies about volatility in 2000 or even 2007 as I have seen in this 2018 year, so I expect all to get worse.  Buying on the dips in a big bear market will become deadly, but investors have been brainwashed to do that. It’s the big dip like the SP500 at 750 which will become important and if and when it gets there, all those dip buyers will be sellers as they run for the hills.

There will be clues when the markets get oversold, but they will not show up until a few months ahead of any major bottom.

For any Cycle degree 4th wave correction to end, we have to look at the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be Primary degree.  I see three price stages where this bear market can go and the first stage is for a complete retracement to the 1800 price level. Only until below SP500 1600, will the markets enter the top of a 4th wave correction. It usually takes into the lower part of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree before a bottom arrives.

Either way another week or so should show which trend is for real. At this time I’m still after 5 waves down in Minor degree. Even when we get to any “A” wave in Intermediate degree, any counter rally could be very mundane and even short lived. We could run into a bear market that will be hard to see clear Primary degree counter rallies, which is exactly what happen in the GSC degree decline down into 1842. There may not be a panic until the majority of participants all see the same thing at the same time.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

Any rally we have had in the last 3-4 trading days sure doesn’t fit into any impulse as it is just too choppy to justify counting it out as an impulse.  I would love to see this chart go a bit higher as that would completely retrace a small zigzag that hasn’t been completely retraced yet. Many times they can turn into running zigzags as well, but it will be a tough call either way.  We should find out in a few more days or closer to midweek what is going to happen.  The experts have just noticed that no new record highs have formed in 50 days as they seemed to be paralyzed in making a bigger bearish call.

 

They also have been bitching about the extreme volatility in the markets, which they think is not normal. It’s normal in a bear market, but bull markets tend to flow much smoother.  All I can say is, “Take A Pill”,  volatility is just getting started.

If we’re lucky the January 2018 peak of 2880 will be the high for the 2018 year and even hold for the next 3 years. Many bear markets in the past have ended with years ending with a 2, like 1932, 1942, 1842, 2002. My GSC degree wave 2 ended in 1842 but it took 8 years to decline. SC degree wave 2 only took 3 years to decline, so any Cycle degree decline will be about the same or even a bit shorter.

Bare minimum the SP500 has to retrace the 1800 price level, but that could be just a temporary resting spot in a long bearish decline. Many are using the trade wars as an excuse for the markets decline, but trade wars act to slow in a digital world. The Cyber warfare going on is attacking the US infrastructure on a regular basis as hacker groups and unfriendly governments attack the US.  There is far more power to destroy from the Internet as groups can go viral virtually overnight.   Chinese net users call for US boycott over trade clash – Nikkei Asian Review.

Trump may think he has the power to wage economic war with other countries like China and Russia, but all they have to do is devalue their currency and the trade war would be neutralized.  We can have crashes without any bear markets (1987), but we can also have initial crashes which are then followed by a long grinding bear market.

The 1842 GSC degree wave 2 decline and bottom, were just grinding declines acting more like a set of 5 waves  than a zigzag. I already have produced the template for such a decline as I explore a few of the options for a Cycle degree corrective pattern.

Bear markets have a nasty habit of retracing  back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but if the degree is wrong, then how do we know where the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree even is? Most of the time bull markets will retrace deep into the previous 4th wave, and sometimes even push a bit lower. Something that may seem normal in the Elliott Wave world, would be considered insane by the majority, until it happens.

The SP500 previous 4th wave low has a gully around the 666 price level, but it may stop well short of that at around 700 or even 750!

Most of the world indices like the Nikkei, Shanghai, Nifty, and the DAX are all in the same fleet of boats, that are already sinking. Like Steven Jon Kaplan said, “The object is not to find a safe cabin on a sinking ship, but the priority should be to get the f$#k off the ship”!

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E-Mini SP500: Impending Rally Update?

Talk about a great downside breakout, but the angle of this present decline has been very steep.  Some counter rally is due, which could trigger all the “Buy” stops.   Usually the spikes get retraced, if a small 5th wave move has just completed. A fast move back up to the 2720 price level at the 4th wave peak, could also happen.  If this potential wave 2 rally happens, then we need wave 3-4-5 to play out.

That might get us to wave 1 in Minute degree. I will keep some of these updates rather short as when markets change directions, violence can ensue.

The US dollar would also see a rally, if stocks suddenly reversed on some “good”news. If any so called “good” news comes out and stocks hardly move, then any rally will be a fake and then die just as fast. Continuously getting lower highs, is just a bull market in reverse, at least for some of the 5 wave sequences.

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Mini SP500: Having A Bad Hair Day!

For a brief time investors were indifferent to any rate increase, but they were already bearish well before the announcement on Wednesday. We also have a great looking H&S top which can give us a very ominous sign, that can also work as a brick wall. At very tops in bull markets H&S are not bullish indicators like they were during most of the 2009-2018 bull market. In a bull market the right shoulder would constantly break higher!

For the first part the February bottom must get completely retraced to kill the idea that this rally is not part of the bull market. It is the Mini DJIA that has a different count, but it will also do what all the other indices will do, and that is to head south!  What that means is that the SP500 can bottom a bit later than what the DJIA might do. This all could smooth out as any trend gets more established.

The love affair for big tech stocks is starting to wane, being anti Facebook is going to be the thing to do as privacy issues are a concern. Investors are finding out how those “FANG” stocks can get clawed to death by the market bears.

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Mini Sp500 Intraday Update

Nothing has changed radically in the last few days as the markets have not made a convincing move just yet. Any Fed announcement could still send the markets soaring. Any diagonal 4th wave bottom could still be developing.  We have a H&S top which does not inspire me to keep a very bullish outlook, but hopefully by the end of the week this mediocre movie will show its true colors.   Many analysts are calling for a correction with many different price projections being forecast.

My question is, “How Big Of A Correction”?  We have hundreds and even thousands of corrections in a bull market so knowing what degree of correction is critical. I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction, which could eventually take the SP500 back down to the 800 price level.  When the SP500 ever gets there, I’m sure all the experts will no longer call it a “correction”, but they will call it a full blown “bear market”.

We can have crashes without bear markets just like the 1987 crash. In 1930 the markets started a bear market that took two years to bottom so any comparable move could also take just a few years.  There is no logic to time when using degree levels as we had a Primary degree correction that took 4 years and a Supercycle correction that only took 3 years! All  my stock market wave counts are based on finding the 5 waves in Cycle degree because without them, we have no hope of of moving into the world of SC degree wave counting.  I spent years, counting the markets in SC degree, but when we were all missing huge bull markets then this raised some serious questions.

I switched to Cycle degree counting in 2013 and I have not found any need to switch again. We can dick around with wave position gymnastics  at the smallest degree level, but they mean nothing if we keep missing bull markets.

This market has to produce lower highs, and lower lows with all rallies having a limited life span. This is how conventional wisdom is called a bear market.

 

My updates are going to be sporadic this week as I have many other things that need my attention, but I will update when I can.

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Mini-SP500 Intraday Gyrations Upate

At this time it looks like I will have to run different wave counts in about 3 out of 5 indices. The wave counts are dramatically different with the tradeable contracts than from the indexes, which only move during the day. Futures that are traded have a wild and wooly look and feel that can distort the wave counts.  It could all smooth out a bit, which I have noticed in other future contacts as well.

This Mini SP500 contract did not travel to a new record high which I can’t use as a truncated 5th wave, but it must belong to the bigger bearish phase already.  There could be some real violent moves in both directions later this week as any Fed announcement can send markets into a dizzy spin.  I will not be happy until this market takes out all the lows of last month, but it could rest just before any downside breakout may occur.

Wave 2 in Minor degree may be finished and I’m sure I don’t need to draw out the rest of the move. By weeks end things could be different if diagonal wave structures are involved. It’s still too early to tell if a big flat or a big zigzag will dominate, but the big triangle can still be ignored at this time. We don’t have enough time before solar cycle #25 starts, for any triangle to completely play out.

I’m bearish no matter what we get, even though I may turn bullish at some counter rallies.

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SP500 Intraday Rally Review

This week may be the last week, that any March contracts will be finished, after which I have to jump to June contracts with most of the indices I cover.  From Friday’s decline the markets found some joy and soared in hopes things will not be as bad as it seems. As long as the media is conducting a trade war, the chances for the markets to go down outnumber and reason that that this market should go up!

Trade war fears are not going to go away, as this kind of action has worldwide domino repercussions. 30-Day Fed Fund rates still have downside potential, which means that rate increases, are still to come during 2018.

We need the markets to clearly show lower highs, but these can happen in any 4th wave as well. This is what happened in the  2015 correction.  If another small degree wave 2 rally is in progress, then the SP500 cannot go higher than my “B” wave in Minor degree.  (Blue).  This “B” wave I’m showing is the start of a potential zigzag in intermediate degree.

This would be the start of a Cycle degree zigzag wave 4 correction, which the majority of analysts will call a “bear market”.

We can have market crashes without the bear market, as that is exactly what happened in the crash of 1987. The 87 crash was over in a few short months, but it sure will take longer in today’s markets. The 87 crash was only a Minor degree wave 3 crash, which the majority of wave analysts have used as a Primary degree crash. My 1987 crash Minor degree wave count,  is a “Full” 2 degrees lower, in what the experts have used.

These contracts that trade during the night, do produce some erroneous spikes that don’t show up, when switching this chart into line type charts.  The markets are still heading higher as I post, but we can take a bit more. We just can’t clear the “B” wave in Minor degree.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Crash Update!

I’m showing a Minor degree “AB” wave with the “B” wave ending just before the end of February. This was also a full moon date and the news about the president Trumps war on cheap imports, became front blog page news.  They couldn’t find a fundamental reason why the markets should crash as all the fundamentals were still bullish.  They sure have their fundamental reasoning now!

Fundamentals are lagging indicators not leading, indicators so any bearish news would pick up the declines intensity.  This “B” wave that I labeled, would belong to a set of diagonal 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, which can only work if this Cycle degree crash turns into a zigzag. I may run this for the month of March, or until it gets trashed, whichever comes first.

The recent talk about steel and aluminum import duties that president Trump has started, has brought this to the front pages. This has all happened before folks. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June, 17, 1930 was the last time a tariff war was conducted and it was one of the main causes of the 1929 crash and 193o-1932 bear market decline. At that time the markets gyrated everytime the Tariff Act was discussed in Congress, which was well documented in the book on “How The World Works” by Jude Wanniski.

Will this all produce a “depression”? I say “no” because in order for that to happen the US dollar needs to charge up into a major bullish phase and all stocks “and” commodities would have to crash down together!  All prices must get cheaper as the US dollar would increase in purchasing power.

With Jerome Powell indicating that three rate increases are still coming this year, this combination of bad fundamental news was enough to give the kiss of death to a bull market. Sometimes I use the 30 and 90 day simple moving averages on 90 minute charts which gives you many “Death and Golden Crosses”.

With a 30-90 day setting, we can see the Death Cross happening much sooner than when we use any 50-200 day SMA. There was one Golden Cross last month, and in March we now have another Death Cross!  Of course, this all becomes unreliable if I make any changes in any of my settings. Right now the SP500 is approaching the 30 day SMA, which could produce some resistance. With a 50-200 SMA my search for Death Crosses on daily charts has been largely a futile effort.  I think if they showed up more often the mainstream analysts will notice them and report them.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

The SP500 is far from breaking new record highs. It is only the Nasdaq that is getting close to breaking out into new world record highs.

Just incase I have beaten the Cycle degree flat drum too long, the above chart would be the beginnings of a zigzag in Cycle degree.  The markets would have to show us another 5 waves down in Minute degree which would then end up at wave 1 in Intermediate degree.

Any top trend line is worthless to use and any invisible bottom trend line is still a bit away from getting hit.  Another Shock&Awe move would help to confirm the bigger bearish phase, but I would throw this wave count out the window in a flash, if these markets do not perform like a bearish phase should.

Dow tumbles nearly 300 points on new Fed chair’s comments | New York Post

Jerome Powell is the new man in charge and the mass of investors, listen to his every word, when they want to!  They didn’t care that much when Janet Yellen was raising rates, but now they seemed to care. If rates are not an issue just yet, then this market could still soar.

If good news no longer pushes the markets up,  then we are over on the big bearish side already. Tomorrow is the full moon and employment numbers should come out on Frida as well. These reports can send the markets into a tizzy, but other times they get completely ignored.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Rally Update

The Mini SP500 created a peak and now has started to back off. This doesn’t mean the stock party is over as another small leg up can still happen.  This rally has turned right at a small bear market rally peak, creating a potential H&S pattern. No sooner had investors injected record amounts into stocks in January, and as soon as the markets dipped, they started pulling out record funds.

Stock-market tumble sends investors fleeing equity funds – MarketWatch

They will always find someone or something to blame for the intraday crash, and the VIX is a prime scapegoat. It’s never the fault of crazy investors who get themselves in a trap situation. They also start to cry that manipulation is bringing this market down. Just about anything that goes down, they will blame on market manipulation.  These guys that believe in market manipulation, figure that markets should never crash.  All trends eventually come to an end, but only a very small amount of contrarians know this fact instinctively.

Insiders are long gone out of this market and only the emotional investors remain. My method of operation, is to always build the wave counts down when stocks are pointing up, and then build the wave count going up once the bear market has shown itself to the rest of the world.

I think it is far more important to catch a major stock market low as only a very small percentage of traders can take advantage of a decline by betting short in the market.  Besides smart short players do not need any wave counts to tell them how to bet short. By late 2008 the markets already signalled that a reversal was coming. The VIX had already peaked at 90 and was about to implode.

As I post the markets are still pushing higher, so this peak so far may not hold. There are spikes that show up, but they have more to do with high speed computer algorithms than human clicks of the mouse. “Algorithms Gone Wild” is more like it. One thing that is always certain and that is, large amounts of protective sell stop orders are piling up below present prices. Eventually they will all get triggered sending the markets to a new record low.

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SP500 Index 2000-2018 Review

For many years I counted everything using Supercycle degree (SC) and Grand Supercycle (GSC) degree wave counting methods. The 2000 and 2007 peaks were relatively easy to track even with my degree levels being from another planet. The bottoms never inspired  the confidence to make extremely bullish calls.

The entire planet works on price, but price is only a small part of what has happened. You can see there are no prices in the chart above, but the majority of wave analysts include, every conceivable price you can imagine! Still the majority of all wave analysts did not see the bull market coming in late 2008. Since 2000 we have seen three sets of wave 3 peaks with the 2007 peak being a bit subdued compared to other ones. This is ok as it still broke higher than the 2000 peak.

The reason that the SP500 has three sets of wave 3 peaks is because none of the wave 3s of the past has ever been extended. The entire wave counting world is working from a 4th wave base. I’m working from a wave two base, all the time. Thinking that all the extensions are 5th waves, will always put us into a much higher degree level, than we actually are.

From the 2009 bottom to our present top is one move, but subdivided into 5 moves in Intermediate degree. Once 5 waves in any degree level are completed a correction must happen. How big the dip may turn out to be, is entirely related to what degree level our present top is going to be. If Cycle degree wave 3 is the real target, then a Cycle degree 4th wave correction must happen, otherwise it’s back to the drawing board playing with our paint by numbers set. This is just a cosmetic wave counting method, and in reality you have to go back a minimum of 100 years and start a completely new wave count each time. I’ve done it 1000’s of times hunting each time for those missed wave three extensions.

Going back 100 years sounds too much like work, so it never gets done, which causes false degree levels to be perpetuated into the future. From my perspective and in sequential order, SC degree wave 3, GSC degree wave 3 and Submillenniun wave 3, are still far into our futures.

If we’re lucky we might hit a SC degree wave three, by 2029, and GSC degree wave 3 by the 2129 time period.

While all the analysts are busy forecasting an ever increasing rosy future, I’m busy looking at and building the alternate future.

I have two lines in the chart above, with the first one at the 1800 price level, which would retrace the entire 5th wave in Intermediate degree. The 2009 bottom fell well below the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which was in late 2002. Not quite 2 years for an Intermediate degree correction. It only took 3 years for a SC degree correction from 1929-1932, so a Cycle degree 4th wave correction might only last three years as well. We sure are “not” going to get some 600 year, GSC degree bear market.

At 1800, the SP500 would not even get close to any required previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, but anything below the SP500 1000 price level would. All the smart technical analysts will draw the megaphone bottom, which points to the SP500 price level around 500.   Everybody on the planet will see the same thing, which usually means that it will never happen. The markets will pull out all the stops to try and fool us a again, and it may do that by “Not” falling below those 2009 lows.

Just because the SP500 may have dipped 10% does not mean that the correction is finished. Like I said, price has little to do with it, but the pattern is everything. Only one completed set of 5 waves in Minute degree does not complete a correction. You can wish hope and pray all you want, but you can’t turn a single 5 wave sequence into a completed correction.

Sure, all the 5 indices I covered soared again late last week, but that can all be due to short covering. Many traders are trying to short DIA and SPY ETFs already, to a point where no more DIA can be borrowed.

Protective sell stops are stacked up below present prices, and once they start to get triggered, we could get the next leg down. All the SP500 has to do is fall below 2530 again, which will help to confirm that, “The Big Dip”,  is in progress.

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Mini SP500 Rally Update

A very strong counter rally is now in force, but if the bigger bearish picture is in effect, then this rally will run out of steam, by the end of this week. This market crash should not be a surprise to any serious market watcher as it seems to happen at every major top in January.

Investors don’t care about buying low and selling high, so they will always get themselves into a bull trap and get wiped out in the process.  The constant brainwashing about staying in the markets for the long term didn’t help in 1929 nor in 2007. No trend lasts forever as all trends eventually come to an end, especially in the general stock markets.

Insiders left this market a long time ago, and there are no real important insider buying announcements that have come out recently.

In futures it’s worse where trends can change direction very violently, with no too little warning. Leverage which produces fear, is the main driver of prices in the futures markets.

The markets are still soaring as I post, so at worst this bullish run could extend into next week.

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Mini SP500 Update Another Record To Break

Yesterday the SP500 pushed to another record high at 2855. That record high was followed by another wild downward move, that can be another zigzag. I extended the wave count a bit more, which may only take a few hours before the bottom trend line gets hit again. I want the SP500 to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction, as a bigger correction is long overdue. The bullish phase from January the 16th sure is not an impulse, but it fits a diagonal pattern much better.

The good thing is that we don’t have a double top situation as the secondary peak is lower. Not sorting out the last wave from the bull market and the first wave of a bear market makes any declining wave count very difficult to count out effectively. Eventually the fog will lift even if it’s only for a short period of time.

February is when the new FED is sworn in,  who can have an unknown impact on the markets. It seems this market is in a generational trend with the analysts painting us a perfect picture of the future.

Analysts are constantly directing your thinking, (brainwashing technique) to higher and higher market forecasts. Do you feel safe investing with the herd?  Market participants only care about one thing and that is that the bull market continues. When the markets turn south, they can panic as a rush to the exits can happen.

Nothing has changed for the impending bear market, even when the greater fools are jumping in. The last players in this market are always the weakest, so it will take very little to scare them right back out again.

The intense media attention to this bull market works like a big speaker horn. When that happens, I always ask myself, “Who’s left to come in”?  When a market is priced for perfection, then this market has no choice but to eventually turn into a big bear market, big enough to catch the majority of participants by surprise. We have 15 sets of degree levels all in order from the largest down to the smallest, so guessing at what the big degree level is, is not an option.

I like to be very specific which largest degree level  I’m using, so it is easier to track down any mistakes as soon as possible. I believe a Cycle degree 4th wave bear market is still coming, so preservation of capital is extremely important. Sure we can play this cat and mouse game as any correction may not last very long.

We are coming up to months end, when things have a nasty habit of making surprise reversals. To give this market some credit, it seems to keep going and going and going, just like the Energizer Bunny.

Even though the markets keep breaking higher I will not abandon my Cycle degree top, as extensions are part of the landscape and as wave analysts we have to deal with it. I will remain bearish until such a time this market shows us what it wants to do. I will say one thing and that is at a bare minimum the SP500 has to hit the 1800 price level, which can give us a support  but only for a short while.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

The SP500 is now developing a small degree double top which I can fit into a diagonal 5th wave.  Even now another spike to the upside can still happen.  A correction is coming and it will be bigger than the majority are expecting.  The “Market Gremlin” will raise a shit storm in the next few years as a financial earthquake is coming.  All those pretty “Green”  numbers in a bull market,  turn to “Red” in a bear market.  If you think that a few $300-$400 billion going up in smoke in the Cryptos is a big deal then, you haven’t seen nothing yet as $20-$30 trillion will go up in smoke once the markets hit the “Real” bottom.

Just for starters the entire 2018 rally has to get retraced, followed by retracing the entire Trump rally as well. Two years worth of gains will disappear in a blink of an eye, so don’t fall asleep being complacent with the majority. Investing with the majority will get you the same results as the majority get when the “Big Bear”comes a knocking. The real bears are not going to be so nice, as there will be no knock as they will just smash through the front door.

In this world you are a contrarian or you become the victim, so you do have a choice.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday this SP500 also peaked at 2760, after which it plunged in price and has now experienced a mini rally. Just like any other potential peak, we need a set of 5 waves in the impending decline, as 5 wave sequences point the way to a bigger trend move. Even on flat corrections we could get a smaller zigzag correction first, and a zigzag has two 5 wave sequences in it.  When the markets are pointing up and the mass media paint us a very rosy picture, they there are not too many players left to jump in.

Any decline will happen in stages, as the last thing we will get is some big 1987 one day super crash. Since 1987 many new circuit breakers have been  installed. Sure, big down days will happen once they see there is no more hope for this bull market. I will remain bearish for the foreseeable future,  until the majority joins us with their bearish mood. When that happens the markets will turn and soar once again. Any bull market top is also planting the seeds for its own destruction, as all the greatest fools are in, convinced that they can find another sucker down the road. As the media spends time looking for those suckers down the road, it may turn out that the fingers are pointing back at themselves.

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Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update.

The SP500 tried a valiant attempt in a decline, but so far has refused to follow through with any conviction. This can be a triangle with an “E” wave to go, which can fail because diagonals waves also start this way.  We need for most of the bull markets previous dips, to get completely retraced.

In the bigger bearish picture,  no support price forecast will hold for any length of time. This will fool us all into thinking that any rally is the start of the next leg up.  At a bare minimum the entire 2016-2017 bullish phase must get retraced in all of the 5 indices that I cover.  Once that target is reached,  the next phase to below the 2011 lows should also happen. We are not going into a SC or GSC bear market like many of the doom sayers are trying to tell us, besides that insider stock buying will be reported which puts a floor the decline. The start of solar cycle #25 will also shred all those bearish moods at that time.

To put it very bluntly, Since the 2000 top, not a single wave count confirming any part or start to any SC or GSC degree, has ever been confirmed. The Little Blue Book” tells us exactly in idealized form,  what patterns and counts we need. For any SC degree correction, we need many 5 wave sequence declines in Intermediate degree, or at least one Primary degree 5 wave decline. Nowhere since the 200o peaks, has this happened.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has flexibility in it, as it is not always possible to catch the extensions even as they are happening.  At this time capital preservation is the most important thing, because without that we will never have anything left to buy into the next huge bull market. Everybody hated gold recently, but gold has refused to play along with the gold bears, and has been heading north.

I will not spend that much time on the big markets during the holidays, but will review more gold and gold stock ETF’s when I can.

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Mini SP500 Intraday New Record High Update.

The markets keep breaking the world record highs, and the SP500 is no exception. After every 5 wave run, even at this small Micro scale, we should expect a change in direction. The only thing that ever changes, is the degree where we think we are counting from. In my case I’m dedicated to finding all 5 waves in Cycle degree first, not SC or GSC degree locations.

SC and GSC degree price commentaries and forecasts are irrelevant in a Cycle degree world.  Everything starts with a wave zero location, and in this case 5 waves up in Cycle degree, started in 1932. By 1937 the markets were finishing a Fibonacci 5 year bull market, which started right in the middle of one of the biggest depressions in stock market history.

Now look back to the 2009 bottom, when the markets ignored all the bearish fundamentals, and proceeded  to soar, leaving the majority in the dust without any strong positions.

In the next 2-3 years we could be facing another major bear market, and you can bet the majority will be left in the dust empty handed again.

Getting caught up in our present euphoric, “New Era, Bitcoin world”, we must keep in mind that bull markets end when the majority are telling us that they can’t end. We have more price bubbles in the world today than we can count on all our fingers and toes, which also indicates a rather high degree top is in play. One degree higher than the 2007 peak to be exact.

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Mini SP500 Record High Update.

This morning the Mini SP500 recorded another new record high at the 2675 price level. This does not mean that some wild move higher cannot happen, but my sequence of  5 waves sure looks like it’s coming to an end.  Stocks and the US dollar are pointing up while gold is pointing down, if that does not give you a clue on what is going to happen next, then nothing will.

This has happened so many times in market history and yet the majority can’t see it being set up. The year 2000 is a prime example what can happen after gold was pointing down in late 1999.  Real seasoned contrarians like Steven Jon Kaplan,  know this very well and in the future this situation will reverse once again.  I have discussed the impending bear market in an email exchange with Mr. Kaplan, and it didn’t take me long to realize that none of my future wave positions or outlook, needed any changes.  

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Mini SP500 Intraday: Surprise Moves!

It’s been about 3 trading sessions, since the Mini SP500 had its last record high. In order for this bullish top to hold, we need lower highs and lower lows to continuously form.   We are only Micro degree waves from a top, so there is lots of room left, in this market to soar. 

I try never to put many alternate wave counts up in one chart, as it’s all about eliminating other alternates first.  There are always 5  simple patterns that can happen in any specific degree, so we have to knock those 5 choices down to 2 choices.   The faster we can come up with alternates the better. In this case one more “C5” bullish wave can happen, so until all December lows have been completely retraced, it’s still a wild west show. 

This is just a quick update, as the markets could move very fast and another option shows up.  A big bear market is coming as it seems Bubble Mania has infected all the investors. I started counting how many bubbles we have in 2017, and I think I can come up with about 10 myself. Probably more,  once we include all the world real-estate bubbles.  It would not surprise me if all these bubbles burst at the same time, and when that happens, trillions of US dollars will go up in electronic smoke. 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Review

I have to remind readers, that any move always has 5 options or 5 probabilities in any move the markets might take. The only difference is the level of degree.  I don’t like to draw multiple different wave counts on one chart, as that does nothing to eliminate other probabilities. 

If the top is real then, it’s not rocket science that the markets cannot go above that peak, but eventually they have to turn and head south again. Even now the markets can retrace 70-80% of the entire decline we just had.  When the crazies are playing in the markets, wild moves can amaze and surprise us when we least expect it.

My “ABC” pattern can be the start of a diagonal drive, but it also works very well as a potential 1-2 wave.  A potential wave 3-4 is not nearly long enough to make a great fit, so it may take until the end of the week, before a better picture emerges.  On this intraday chart the move looks very big, but on a daily chart, it’s just a little bee sting.  

I would like to see the counter rally expire sooner than later, but this pattern can sill soar to a new record high as a “C” wave.  If this market heads lower by the end of the day, that would be nice.  Make some room in your fridge, because the bears have sharp claws, and they are looking for some good bull meat to slice up! 

 

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December, 3, 2017: Supermoon, SuperSP500!

Moon, Dec.2nd

On Friday stocks took a dive off the high board, instead of hitting some water, (soft landing) the SP500 landed on a trampoline as the markets bounced right back. With Sunday openings the markets continued on north. Another new record high was established, but squeaked in by a narrow margin. 2664 would be the number to beat as I post.  This extra down and up move, gives us a wave 3-4 but that would fit better as a diagonal.

After every 5 waves we must expect something else to happen.  Either another correction or the end of the bull market, which only gives us 2 choices. 

In the mad rush to not be left behind, a huge gap opened up.  Among the countless other open gaps that we have far below present prices, this gap will be first in line to get closed off.   As long as this gap remains open we have the equivalent of a magnet pulling prices back down. 

It’s very fitting that the SP500 touched new record highs with the Supermoon, which is also the last full moon for 2017.   

By Monday morning it could be a different story, as a quick reversal may happen. We need declining 5 wave sequences to point to a new direction and at least we want the SP500 below October lows.   The chart above is a sad documentation of how little impact the 1987 crash anniversary date had.  At best we had a Minuette degree wave 3-4, correction, which still leaves us with another 4 smaller degree levels to use. 


Update December, 4, 2017

The big fat arrow shows us a diagonal 5th wave, right into the supermoon, before it crashed again.  One little spike to the upside, always reminds us that at least another correction is coming. On a weekly chart, we have a much bigger spike, so it is not just one little spike that is important. In candle stick you have to count every skinny little wick to see the same thing. 

This market has to fall well below any 4th wave bottom that you can see on my charts above, before there is no longer the time left to break new record highs for 2017. 

Once we see a bit more southward movement, I will create another review with my 2000-to 2017  wave count. 

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