Tag Archives: Death Cross

Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Update

 

With COT charts like this, we just look at what is above and below the line and by the looks of it, there seems to be little interest on the commercial hedger’s side to build long positions. I’d rather see extremes first before I turn into a CAD bull and so far we are far from it.

Since the 2017 peak our CAD has been grinding down and all the gold investors need for our Canadian Dollar to soar!  That has not happened, and it even seems like a new record low is still to materialize. From July to about September the CAD was on a rally with some insane overlapping wave structures. Short term Bear market rallies behave just like this and “ALL” bear market rallies retrace themselves sooner or later. This small bear market rally will be retracted when the CAD hits below that .75 price level.

What the public calls a bull or bear market is not even close to what I use as we can get a 61% correction in a wave 2, and get a 40% decline for a 4th wave bottom. I’m sure nobody called the end to the CAD bear market rally in 2017, but we know the majority were all very bullish. Since the 2017 peak two support price levels are retraced and now we are going to face the 3rd one in a few weeks or so.

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Russell 2000 Daily Chart And The Death Cross

 

While many of the talking heads are bullish towards the stock market as the “Buy on the dip” battle cry, still seems to be a common theme. We are looking at a daily chart with the 50-day MA getting close to kissing the 200-day MA line, and when it does, it turns into a Death Cross. A Death Cross on a daily chart forecasts a bearish move that will devastate all those smart bulls that have been brainwashed to stay invested for the longer term. Maybe the younger investors can recoup years down the road, but if my boomer generation is still “invested” then they will never have the time to recoup any market losses. Many boomers lost their retirement investments with the 2008 crash. Even older Gen-X investors may not recover from this next bear market downturn.

When I switch this to a weekly chart setting, then the 200-day Death Cross is at the 1360 price level, so a wild ride is surely coming!

Just about all COT reports regarding the different indices, show commercials still having net short positions. I will not turn bullish on stocks until all their short positions start to reverse!

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Euro Daily Chart Update.

 

The Euro is going the opposite direction from the US dollar, but with this chart we had a bit of a rally in the last 10-11 trading days. Last weeks COT report show that the speculators (hedge funds) and the commercial traders are both in a net short positions on the Euro. Not by that much but they are both definitely net short at this time. This does not support a big bullish move in the Euro which gold investors must get to keep the gold bullish dream alive.

The Death Cross on this daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still ahead of us.  Dreaming of a mythical Euro bull market sitting on top of an impending weekly chart Death Cross, is not my idea of a bullish position I would take.

Market Vane (MV) report had about 48% bulls present in Tuesday’s report, which would still need to shrink as bulls keep disappearing! Any reading below 10% gives lots of room for a large group of Euro bulls to come back in.

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SP500 Daily Chart Update!

 

The talking heads have declared the correction over as new record highs are being broken. The problem with that thinking is that there are expanded patterns that constantly fool us thinking that the bull market is still alive.  These types of moves can turn very violent in a short period of time, so I have deep respect for expanded patterns. This would just be the opening pattern to what will be a Cycle degree flat bear market.  Up to the first “A” wave in Primary degree a flat and a zigzag are different, but then the counter rally bull market “B” wave and the following Primary degree “C” wave can be exactly the same.

We sure have a rising wedge in progress and they are about as bearish of a signal as they come.  The entire bull market in stocks has worked with printing money on a unprecedented scale, and when the markets crash then this is asset destruction on a grand scale. It’s like throwing money in a fire and watching it burn, far less money will be around in the future as 100 trillion in world asset values could disappear in a puff of electronic smoke!

This is what happened in 1929 and the only difference now is that the 1929 crash was a Supercycle degree wave 2 crash. In 2018-2021 we will be one degree lower.  It will be worse than the 2008 recession, but not quite as bad as the 1930’s depression.

Gold will crush all the old myths about protecting you when things get crazy but this a false believe as gold will not protect you in deflationary times. Buying this market on any dip is also a crazy idea if you don’t know that a big crash is coming.

Just like the markets crashed down into 2008-2009 we are faced with the same situation 10-11 years after the 2007 peak. If we take 1929 and add the Fibonacci number 89 in years, we get 2018. 89 is only one year off from 3-30 year cycles.

This 30 year cycles works best in the gold market as for he stock market I have to calculated it a bit different, mostley from different times.

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SLV Wave Positions: “Garbage In, Garbage Out”

 

“Garbage In, Garbage Out”, is how it works with the EWP. Flipping numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers on a grill, just scrambles more of the garbage coming in, which in turn destroys every wave position we may think we have looking into the future. The majority of wave analysts and gurus focus on the gold price, and what the hedge funds are doing in gold. In most part they ignore silver and even ignore most of the gold stock ETFs as well. SLV follows the silver cash futures very well, so I know there are no options involved inside the SLV,  ETF.

The price support of $13 is the magic number that will confirm that silver was in just another bear market rally! Up top in 2012. we also had a bear market rally, as that entire bullish run was completely retraced. How can gold be in a bull market after SLV drops another $1 and falls below $13?  Market Vane in 2011 registered 96% silver bulls, one of the most extreme readings you will ever get and SLV imploded shortly after!

In 2011 SLV peaked before GLD by many months, so I think this theme will always be present, making Silver a very good leading indicator.  Gold investors think that the 2011 peak was just a peak in an on going bull market correction, but this is a “false assumption”.  2011 was a 30 year commodity mania peak and they do not correct in just 4-5 years. They also never end with a soft bottom like in late 2015. When I apply a 75-150-day MA, then we are sitting on a Death Cross right now! This is the worst bullish position we can find ourselves trapped in.

Those that are wishing and hoping for the return of the big silver bull, will have to wait until 2041 for a Supercycle degree wave III metals mania. At most during our life span, we can be part of two mania peaks and 2011 was my second mania peak.

The wave decline since 2011 has been a classic diagonal set of 5 waves, which I was not sure how to count when it happened. All commodities are about connecting big zigzags together which is why I include the “C” wave peak in Primary degree for 2011. Don’t get me wrong, as all of 2019 could be very bullish for the metals market which I plan to participate, to the fullest extent my real money account will allow!

Late 2011 also saw the first peak in solar cycle #24 much like what happened in 1980! In 1999 this flipped when the price of silver was propelled to the upside. This should happen again when solar cycle #24 ends.  The solar cycles are one of the most powerfull indicators for the starts and endings to bullish and bear cycles. Producing bearish wave counts when solar cycle #25 arrives will kill or trash every bearish wave count we can dream up, which should match my Cycle degree wave 4 bottom as well.

After this time period, there is a good chance that this blog will go “Dark” when “NO” more wave positions will be posted. This may even happen sooner, as in the last 2.4 years, no practicing wave analyst has expressed any real desire to work inside the Cycle degree parameters that I follow. If nobody is willing to devote their life to maintaining Cycle degree wave analysis, then all my work will end up getting buried in history, never to rise again. Modern wave analysts have destroyed the EWP, which all happened after the mania peak in 2000!  In the early days it was one on one, that kept the EWP going, as there was no internet at that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Impending Death Cross Update!

The odds that the main indices also contain an expanded pattern is to hard to ignore. The “C” wave decline can be very steep and it would travel faster as well. Again, protective sell stops are piling up underneath every price support, and a quick count tells us we have about 5 legs that have to get retraced.

We still have a long way to go before the Death Cross is made in the Nasdaq as the crossings all travel in alternating sequences. After a Golden Cross comes a Death Cross, which forecasts a long term bearish decline to come. I have an in-house “pool” of futures Death Crosses which is just one of my 8 main indicators or tools that I use. Another main in-house pool consisting of all my gold/ratios is also another one of the 8 indicators I use.  I call them my “aces” in my hand, and if I only have 1-2 aces that give a clear signal then this is not nearly enough to justify a move.  The Gold/Nasdaq ratio sits at 6.19:1 which is far more expensive than the 4.94:1 extreme that I once measured.

My Market Vane report is another “Ace” but this will run out soon. Market Vane shows that 76% bulls were present for last week. This has dropped down from a 24 month high of 91% bulls. 91% bulls is an extreme from any perspective, which means there is nobody left to get in.

Markets are twice as expensive now than they were in 2000 as the Warren Buffet indicator confirms. The entire world is sitting on impending Death Crosses so I only see downside potential for the rest of this year. It could take all of 2018, to show the damage that bears can cause but then all of 2019 coud be very bullish for stocks and gold again.

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Mini SP500 2000-2018 Review.

 

This market is still trying to break to new record highs, as this SP500 chart is just a few points away from establishing a new record high. All this has taken to long already so I have to explore the idea that an expanded pattern is forming in Intermediate degree. Once the main markets start to show a more ovious crash, then I expect gold to do much of the same. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak in 2011 that will not get repeated until 2041 when SC wave three should arrive.  The advantage of working in Cycle degree is that SC,GSC and Submillennium degree wave 3 are all ahead of us, as all others think we are in a GSC degree already. Flipping wave counts around like they are hamburgers  on a grill, is not what the EWP is all about. I don’t move any of my big wave positions around anymore, as from my perspective it’s more like a surgical procedure transplanting a heart!  Each move has output ramifications, attached to them, so we should be far more senstive when we flip Elliott Wave numbers around.

I don’t like the expression “wave counting” as from my perspective they are all “positions” of captured human emotions. Being out by just “ONE”  degree, will put us out by a mile or 61% or more.  An example would be 377 years, with one higher degree this would turn into 610 years long. One degree would throw us off a minimum of 144 years. My target for Submillennium degree wave 3 peak would be the year 2101!  That’s just for gold as the stock markets can be offset by many years.

WD Gann used the 60 year cycle a lot, but this 60 years, is just two 30 year cycles connected together. 3-30 year cycles is only 1 year off from the Fibonacci number 89, and I treat them as being the same.

The Death Cross, or the 200-day MA is at SP500 2300, but it will take more than that for the markets to complete any impending Death Cross. The world is siting on the most inflated markets in world history, and when they correct it will not be pretty.

At this time I’m just taking a best guess approach to the depth of an “A” wave in Primary degree, as it is still to early to make any better call.

 

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DJIA Index Daily Chart Update:

This is just the DJIA index which still has not made any new record highs since the late January peak. Since about Marc/April 2018 the DJIA has created a real choppy rally which indicates that the DJIA is struggling against the larger trend which is still down.  It will take very little downside to push the 50-day MA into the 200-day MA and next thing you know the Death Cross has formed. A Death Cross indicates a long term decline, with the Death Cross still to happen on the weekly and monthly charts.

Gold is also crashing, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets join gold with it’s price crash.  Since this pattern could be part of a zigzag crash the DJIA could end up at the major “A” wave bottom in Primary degree together with gold.   After the “A” wave has bottomed, then any flat scenerio will act just like any zigzag. Gold and the DJIA “B” wave rally could sync up together, and both crash down to the 2021 Cycle degree wave IV bottom. Even after gold and the DJIA crash together, they could also rise together for another 8 or more year bull market. Gold investors will not figure this out when it happens, but the short story is, “Deflation” is coming and no amount of electronic money printing will stop it. It’s the world wide fertility crash that will case the deflation as the entire boomer genertion will be dying off by 2050.

The boomer generation will be permanent sellers of real estate (static asset) . The rich own 80% of all the wealth and most of that are static investemnts. Those hanging on to investment homes, expecting 5% or 10% a month rise to continue, are being very gready as they do not do the hard work to earn this rise.

No trend lasts forever as inflated home prices helps no one .

All this time the US dollar will be soaring as that represents deflation. Our Fed banks are fighting an old inflationary war when they raise the rates. According to the Warren Buffet indicator, the markets are twice as expensive as the time during the 2000. bubble top. Eventually, we could see the DJIA crash down to the 7000, (SP500 at 750) price level, before any real bottom will present its self to the majority.

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Brent Crude 2008-2018 Review

This is the September weekly chart with 1500 custom bar settings. The COT reports do not show any real extreme, but the Gold/Brent ratio does. Since May this ratio has been averaging 17:1 .Which is about the same as the Gold/WTI ratio is. They are still so very bullish on oil that recently they say that “$150” crude oil is coming. That will not work as gold and oil are linked via their respective ratios. At 17:1 any oil price can crash like WTI did in 2014.

No Death Cross on Brent has happened, on the daily, weekly and monthly charts! We had the Brent Death Cross at the top in 2014, and the Golden Cross just formed earlier this year. With a Golden Cross already done Brent crude should explode in price! The 50-day MA can bend down and slice right through the 200-day MA. Before you know it the Death Cross has formed and Brent Crude keeps heading south.

The hedge funds with WTI are still so bullish that they are net long by a ratio of 8.35:1. I consider 4:1 ratio to the extreme side while the commercials only have 1.89:1 net short position. The Brent crude COT reports are not that skewed at all, matter of fact it looks pretty boring. I’m very confident at this time, that the  impending Death Cross, has more power than any COT report, but I need to get more confirming evidence to have faith in what I’m reading.  Commercials can also make dramatic flip flops which I saw some of the currencies do.

No little $10-$20 correction will fix the problem. $40-$45 Brent crude could supply short term support but in the end the world is going to deflate and the Brent crude price will also crash. Fundamentals will “Allways” tell you the wrong things at the extremes, and when the analysts all sound the same, then it’s time to bet against them.

The gold price has been closing below $1200 which is not a good sign, as I expect gold and oil to still crash much more during the rest of this year. Brent crude will not standup to this, so it will crash as well. I will not trade any oil move with USO as it does not reflect pure oil very well at all. I closed my USO short position becuase it was so small of a position, I wanted a bit of extra margin space on my US dollar side.

Have patience as by the end of this year we could be facing a different energy landscape. Oil is being drawn to the solar cycle #24 bottom, but after that oil could soar one more time.

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HUI 2011-2018 Bear Market Update!

The 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak that has still to finish the first set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. They are connected with zigzags  like “All” commodities are, with our last “B” wave in Minor degree already completed. The “C” crash bottom will be the last one when it finishes sometime towards the end of 2018!

It also means the angle of the decline will also increase as the HUI still has to fall below the 100 price level, to confirm that our present bullish phase was just a big bear market rally. It was only an Intermediate degree at the 2016 top, so any future “B” wave in Primary degree has to exceed the 2016 peak by a wide margin.

This anticipated “B” wave in Primary degree will be the last and final chance to unload all gold stock and bullion investments. I always work 3 steps ahead of the crowd, which I have been doing for decades already, as it is the quickest way for me to catch mistakes at the earliest time.

Those who are not ready by the end of September will be late, and as it takes major planning to reverse once the bottom is near!  I will use $5000 as my USD model account and have sacrificed about $500 CAD with 10 Puts on GDX (100 shares per PUT) which expire by September 18th. I will take any green offerd to me at that time but the pay back will all be on my CAD side.

This is all good as I also get to build up my CAD side as well as my USD side. As of this morning all my accounts are in the green! Which is a good thing, right?  🙂

 

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Euro 2001-2018 Review

Just like the US dollar is in a huge bull market so is the Euro as it makes up about 59% of the USD basket. Gold investors that think another huge leg up in gold is going to happen are ignoring the fact that the Euro was just in a bear market rally and new record lows will happen, by this fall. This would land us on a Primary degree wave 3, followed by yet another bear market rally before we bottom at a Supercycle degree “A” wave bottom sometime by 2041 or three years sooner. The Euro peak matches oils peak and not gold, so we have to be aware of this 3 year difference.  My last weeks Market Vane report only shows 46% bulls present which is still far from any extreme I may be expecting. Even gold is about the same so it’s not just one thing I rely on. All my futures wave counts are in what I call, “The Wave Pool”, which are all in-house created indicators that only a few one on one people get to see in any detail.  I also built a “Ratio Pool” and a “50-200-day MA Pool”.

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Australian Dollar Bear Market Update

Any currency that has supported any run in gold and silver sure have not been cooperative at all. It sure supports the bearish stance that I have. We just finished a Golden Cross, but the Death Cross is in the Australian dollars near future. That puts CAD and AUD on the same path and it represents deflation, as the US dollar is in a big bull market that very few people understand.  I think the AUD will play out a huge zigzag correction where part one may just finish this fall.

Either way,  new record lows in the Australian dollar will happen, as the last two year rally was a fake just like gold.

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Silver 2011-2018 Review

I stretched my weekly chart to 1500, so we can see back to that 2008 crash bottom. The Death Cross has already happened just like it was on a daily chart. I have only used two indicators, Two parrell lines and one 50-200-day MA. We can slice and dice any wave positions, but the fact remains that the 2011 peak was a 30-year cycle peak of a gold&silver mania bull market top. 1980 was the previous 30 year mania peak which also burst producing close to a 20 year bear market in gold and silver.

The wave counting experts ignore silver most of the time becuase they are blinded by the glitter of gold as its charts pointed up,  while silver pointed down. Silver is a better leading indicator where gold is going to go to, than the other way around.  No gold or silver stock ETF confirmed any part of gold’s breakout attempt, which obviously has failed so far. The majority of investors are always wrong at the extremes and if investors think fundamentals will send silver soaring, then they have a nasty surprise coming their way. A Cycle degree mania bubble does not get corrected in a little 4-5 year bearish phase,  least of all with just one soft landing. The correction will still last until about 2021 which would make gold and silver a 10 year bear market!

I’m a small trader not an investor, as I would never knowingly build a heavy long position, when the entire world is sitting on Death Crosses! Below $13 is the big silver number to beat, and will be the price level that confirms the last 2-3 year bullish phase was all a smoke and mirror bull market. The angle of silvers decline should turn steeper as it has done many times before. Silver also has a tendency to slice through any Fibonacci support even if it may be just for a short time peiod.

Deflation is the real threat folks, as we come off this hyped up, pumped up world of inflated prices. What most silver investors don’t know is that the world population fertility rate is crashing and has been crashing, as the major boomer populations start to die off in record numbers. Dieing boomers are “Permanent Sellers” of real estate, with smaller and smaller new generations being born following every stock market crash.

I’m very bearish on this market until I see that a major support price level has been reached! The 2008 crash low or a bit lower, is where we should expect for all this to settle. By that time all my short positions will be closed off, with an impending huge bullish phase during 2019! This will also be a big fake, or bear market rally, and it will be the very last chance for metal investors to unload at near a bubble top.

Conventional wave counting will not work in the commodities world commodities are connect together with huge zigzags lasting over 40 years. Our next zigzag decline is far from over and this fall may only be part one of a 3 part move. (A, B, C,) in Primary degree.

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SIL: Bearish Trend Continues!

Now that we can look back to that 2016 peak it would have been a good time to close off any long positions and then revert to a bearish short position.  SIL has to completley retrace itself back down and below the point of origin to confirm that this entire bull market was nothing but a bull trap as new lows are certainly going to happen in the next 3-4 months.  I use a 75-150-day MA on these charts which shows that the 75-day MA is ready to create a Death Cross. I find that any Death Cross of this magnitude is one of the most important technical indicators that I have added this year.

The last Golden Crossing sure never lasted that long which does happen, but I would never knowingly invest at the top of a Death Cross. Death Cross is excatly what it sounds like as your account turns red long before they happen. I may not be able to buy in at the bottom as my main focus will be,  GDX,GDXJ, GLDM. We have lots to choose from, far more than what I will need in the next few years.  SIL should fall well below $13 and $8 would not be an issue. Paying too much attention to gold will always give you the wrong signals as silver and gold stock related ETFs tell us a much different story.

The angle of decline has to turn down sharper, which I’m sure SIL will do, along with all other gold stock related ETFs. Deflation is the name of the game and SIL is demonstrating this perfectly. The bullshit stories of how gold or silver can protect you in a deflation is totally wrong, only when gold or silver prices have been crushed will  gold or silver protect you from any future inflation.

My “A” bottom in Primary degree will be one of the best and last buying positions for the next bullish run that is sure to follow. If you are still sitting on the fence saying, “Well you never know”, it’s just a bad excuse for not even wanting to do the minimum amount of work required to understand trends. Missing a major bearish trend or a major bullish trend is unacceptable from my perspective.

When betting short, our timing must be impeccable or sublime so “maybe” must be turned into 20/20 foresight vision. Any new record low will just be part one ending, as the 2019 counter rally should be the biggest since 2011!

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1987+31 Years = 2018! DJIA Impending Crash Update

 

This is the DJIA index chart and I have been doing some basic calculations, counting forwards and backwards using the 30 year cycle. This 30 year cycle has a plus or minus error of 1 year. When I first checked this by counting 100 years backwards to 1918 and then to 2101 I found this frequency to be so consistent that nothing on this planet can match this forecasting indicator. If you are ready or not, there is a huge market crash coming 30 years after the 1987 crash, and 89 years from the 1929 peak.

This 89-year Fibonacci number is only off 1 year and we have 3, 30 year cycles completed. There are many other dates that all fit very well including the 100 year cycle, like 1918 + 100  years!  Cycle degree wave 3 has already ended in most part, while gold has also ended its Cycle degree mania peak in 2011. You can’t fight cycles escpecially this 30 year cycle. Throw in the solar cycles as well, and this 2021 time period is going to get interesting to say the least. You can’t beat solar cycles, so counting waves with the solar cycles in mind should never be forgotten.

The Death Cross in the DJIA is still going to happen on the daily charts, so longer term stocks are going to get hit with huge price declines. (Deflation) This fall will tell us more, which should be followed by a massive gold and stock market rally lasting into the mid-2019 time period. Deflation is the real threat as the USD will remain strong during the entire time, except by the end of this year. The USD can crash and burn sending gold and stocks back up, in a wild bear market rally that will shock stock and gold investors alike.

Since all my wave analysis is dedicate to Cycle degree, it makes it easy to forecast any SC and GSC degree future peaks. This 30 year cycle is not going away folks as the next 3 cycle peaks would be 2041, 2071 and 2101. How these 30 year cycles form is my speciality which only my paid one on one clients get to see in detail. Of course all this imformation is all out there for free, but only a few will do the work required to confirm these cycles. Many of my indicators have been developed in-house as I do not need any expert to tell me when the markets and gold are going to crash.

We are heading into a deflationary crash folks, where all static investors will get slaughtered as they all become trapped. Being invested at the top of a Death Cross is financial suicide, yet most people are oblivious to what’s going to happen.

The EWP is what you design it to be. If you just want mindless day trading setups, while missing every major move, then that is what you will get. We get from the markets what we want, and if you don’t have a clear goal of what you want planned out, then your hopes and dreams will not get realized.

In well over 2 years 3 months, not a single person has suggested that they are switching over to Cycle degree wave analysis as it requires real money trading to confirm it all. 99.999% of all wave analysts have no skin in the game so it would take someone special to keep Cycle degree analysis going into the future. This blog may only run until Cycle degree wave IV has completed, after which Elliott Wave 5.0 could go dark permanently.

I will never waste my time and money shorting popular companies and indices, as all the short players on this planet are trying to do the same thing. Betting the markets when they are going down is not a game for sissies, as you have to have impeccable timing to make them work well.

 

 

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GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

GDXJ hit its mania top in late 2010 and then proceeded to double top and  implode in a 5 year decline. Since this 2011 peak I had little understanding how a 5 wave diagonal wave structure is supposed to count out. I’m a fast learner as there are two major types of diagonal 5 wave declines, besides all commodities are zigzag bull markets that can span decades. The zigzag “C” wave ending 2010  is close to 41 years in the making. The next 5th wave in Cycle degree will also be another big zigzag, which will not peak until 2041. (Gold SC Wave III) Silver is a prime example of the zigzag world that commodities are “always” in, and using the EWP to count stock market type counting in commodities will not work.

This so called bear market is far from over as the last of the zigzags still has to play out. This could take to the end of November, maybe by the 21st of November 2018. No price support ever lasts and I’m sure this $30 price will not hold. Any bear market rally must always retrace itself back to the point of origin, and lower. If gold stock investors can get fooled by an Intermediate degree bear market rally, then they will certainly get fooled once the Primary degree “B” wave top is completing.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio has also been hitting a price brick wall at 39.27:1, which should increase as GDXJ continues with it’s bearish trend. I also have a small wedge showing which is a very bearish pattern. I don’t have any bearish positions on GDXJ but I do with GDX. I will be tracking about 3-4 ETFs and all the entry sequences I have mention would just be cloned for any other bear or bullish reversal we will run into. All the work I do is also scalable from the smallest home trading base to larger trading firms or partnerships. GDX, GDXJ,  IAU, GLDM I will consider to use for the capital base that I might have by the time this all hits a bottom later this year.

Deflation is the name of the game, not inflation as the world is coming off the biggest inflated asset world ever, and all commodity asset classes will take a big hit. The entire world is sitting on Death Crosses including gold, and if I ignore this simple fact than I would be wiped out like the majority always do. My buddy and I are having another lunch meeting on Wednesday, where we can spend 2 hrs into covering what I see on a one-one basis. I will be throwing PUTs and Calls into the mix but only PUTs at this time.

Since GDXJ will be off the charts we could expect anything between $8 and $13 as a bottom reversal window. I like to use the “window” description as all windows close shut. Your either in the position you want or your out. Betting on the markets to go down must have impeccable timing in order for it to work well. If you only know how to trade the markets in a bullish trend then we are only running at 50% efficiency or worse. The only way to get wave pattern theoretical maximum is by planning all the trades we expect to happen in the next 3 years. Even then, if we can only capture 80% of Wave Theoretical Maximum we would be doing extremely well.

This is not a horse race folks, as trading is an infinate game where we only have dropouts. I’m a gold bear rider or a gold bull rider, and the only thing that matters is that we achieve a new personal best trade. All the markets are always bluffing us with a pair of “twos” compared to my 4 aces that I want in my hand at all times.  Of course an extra 3 aces up my sleeve always helps. 🙄 Only my one on one paid consulting clients get to see my aces and what they mean.

For now I will use a model USD $5000 based trading account as that is the minimum we should start with. Not until the late spring 2019 peak will we know at what numbers we cash out at. Trading is all about taking the minimum risk capital, and then parley that into something we can use as a home based trading accout.

Trading is about avoiding all bear and bull traps, and that information is free on the internet today. The problem is nobody wants to do the work required to detect these traps, as everybody wants a get rich quick answer. My goal is to eventually draw $13,000 CAD per year which would give me a combined income of about $40,000 CAD per year. I assure you, I would be living high on the hog at $40,000 per year!

 

 

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SP500 2000-2018 Review

Many smart analysts have compared ourpresent 2018 pattern to the 2000 peak pattern, and yes they look very similier. The valuations today are about twice as much today as when the dotcom mania of  2000 imploded.  Will it implode again? Of course it will, this hyped up, max leverage world is going to reverse and deflation is going to ravage this world which we have not seen in 100 years. Any asset class that is not secured or protected will take a hit as prices will start to crash.

This is going to be a Cycle degree wave 4 crash, just like gold and since part of a flat is the same as part of a zigzag, I can see the markets syncing up with gold later this year.

Gold and stocks may even rally together once we start on the “B” wave rally in Primary degree.  Then gold and stocks will dance together in a 1-2 year decline that could send the sp500 down to 750 and gold below $500. Sp500 below 1500 is the bare minimum and that just gets us into the previous 4th waves, not even near any bottom.

Gold should dip well below $800 and when this gold price stabilizes bit then the markets should not be too far behind gold. We could see a wild triangle rally in both SP500 and gold, which will seal their fates for the 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  The whole world is invested sitting on top of Death Crosses, so it will be a big deflatioary crash that not to many investors think that can happen. Gold will always have 30 year cycles, so the markets will just weave in and out during the same time period.

Why such a big deflationary crash is coming, is due to the world wide fertility rate decline, which has been in full swing since the 1950’s. Birthrates also crash after each stock market crash so smaller and smaller generations numbers are being born. This has happened many times and most notable in 2010 when I read a fertility crash after a market crash.

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VIX Daily Chart: VIX Bear Trap Review!

The amount of time the VIX has been correcting just about puts it into an Intermediate degree position. It’s still a VIX bear trap any which way you want to look at it, as it is only a matter of time before the fear gauge starts to crank up again. The Death Cross finished about a month ago but the Golden Cross will still happen. The commercials are net long while those hedge funds or speculators are betting with net short positions. One group is always wrong and it sure isn’t the commercials. Combine that with a wedge and you have a deadly chance of the VIX exploding to new record highs by the end of this year.

Fear is going to come back regardless, after which the commercials will be turn net short again. Deflation is the main threat as we come of the most inflated asset world in history.  Another quick flash to the downside can still happen, so we have to be aware of that.

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DJIA Weekly Chart 2009-2018 Review

By any metric you want to use this inflationary world is going to come crashing down and investors have no clue that it’s about to start happening this year. I have many in-house indicators as well that nobody gets to see except for, one on one clients, that have paid me some sort of consulting fees. There are no real limits to consulting fees, if your good.  I would be crazy to give out any investment advice, as it is clear to me that investors always get burned. 2015-2016 saw a nice correction which was the 4th wave in Intermediate degree. Any large degree 4th wave is also a warning that one more bullish phase is coming but that will also be the last chance for stocks bulls to make any money. The majority never win at this game as they always go down with the ship made out of paper!

At this time I can already see that the gold sector and the stock sectors are going to sync up, and it should be more obvious by the end of this year around the November 21st

date. This is a best guess scenerio, but if it comes close, then the DJIA will also rally with gold for the entire bearish counter rally to come in 2019. If the DJIA comes to a rest at the 15,000 price level it would only be on a temporary basis at best, lasting into 2019.

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Gold: Looking Back A 1000 Days!

I have what is called a “custom bar” setting, which is just the amount of days I can look back. Normally I always use 500-day settings, but this time I doubled that to 1000-day settings. I use about 5 major indicators which the 50-200-day MA is just one that I use from the conventional world of  technical analysis. I also drew in the rising wedge I used many times and the bottom trendline sliced right through the Death Cross perfectly. There were many warning signs at the top as gold could not work past the $1360 price level. I had a $15 gold window where this zigzag rally would be busted!

I’m short IAU which is a gold metal tracking ETF. GLDM is new and I will track it as well. Once a trend change has taken hold then nothing on this planet will stop it until it comes to its final conclusion. Any bullish move that is acually in a bear market rally must eventually completely retrace itself, back to its point of orgin, and lower. $1200 is another potential support price level that should get breached. This would only leave 2 more to go before investors fear factor start to rise. Remember, there are sell stop orders down below the void! Every ETF has sell stops below as well.

We had the Death Cross at this scale already and others will follow. I hope I never get caught in a bullish trap as I took a big enough hit on losers already. All my short positions are in the green, except for USO and that is only a few percentages down.  I have three sets of PUT options out on GDX, but they turn red as soon as you put them on.

Two different sets have already flashed in and out of green, so I consider that a good sign. When I close all my PUTs, then I will see what I can use for the big trip back up.

Sure,we still have 4-5 months to go, but at the end it could go so fast, that if traders are not ready for it, they will miss it. Missing a major bullish or bearish run is losing money. It’s worse if your also caught on the wrong side of the trade. For the last part of the year, your going to see how many bullish gold investors are going to get hit.  You will read headline after headline how investors are getting fleeced as all markets start to crash.

I just got a fresh copy of the Market Vane report and none of it suggests that gold is going to the moon anytime soon. In fact it all points the opposite way.

Folks, we are at a major price bubble never before seen in history in all asset classes. This cannot continue and the markets will implode in a deflationary bear market that the majority will never see coming.

At this time my bet is that gold and the markets are going to sync up, but it may take the rest of this year to see it happen.

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The Warren Buffet Indicator: Pain Awaits For Investors!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-favorite-metric-suggests-some-serious-pain-awaits-investors-2018-08-06

 

I think this MarketWatch post says it all! Combine that with the Death Crosses on just about every asset class, and we have the set-up for a serious crash going into the fall.

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Silver Monthly 1980-2018 Review

 

When we look back to the 1980 30 year silver mania peak, and compare it to our 2011 30 year mania peak, silver barely broke a new record high. Both peaks had a ridiculous forecasts associated with them, as the were calling for $200 silver in 1980 as well. If any wave analyst tries to count this out without Diagoanl Wave counting knowledge, then it will never work to ever make enough money to sustain a home based trading business. Gold and silver investors all believe that the next leg up in silver is going to blow all the bears out of the water and that their investments are going to pay-off.

I’m very confident that the Death Cross will not allow this to happen, as the Death Cross may even supersede all other indicators like the COT reports. The 2001 bottom could also work as a triangle in a “B” wave. One thing is very obvious that the entire silver markets are diagoanl wave structures, which is the norm not the exception in all commodities that I track. In commodaties, any wave analysts must instantly switch to a diagonal perspective, because normal stock market wave counting methods will never work. From the 30 year 2011 cycle peak, the decline is just your standard 5 wave diagonal decline, which are all connected with zigzags. Flats are a rarity in digaonal waves structures, but connecting zigzags rule!

The 1980 peak was a 30 year “A” wave peak in Primary degree, as the 2011 peak ended with the “C” wave in Primary degree. Missing any “C” wave in any direction, Minor degree or higher, is not an option anymore, as missing a major “C” wave bull market is where all the money is always made in   the first place.

Since the 2011 silver and gold peaks, both have a zigzag bear market in Primary degree to look forward to, which should be finished close to the 2021 time period. Three years of investor hell, but a smart traders 3 year dream come true!  Time is money, and if you get this market wrong then you actually lose double as much. We lose being on the wrong side, and we lose because another shorting opportunity has been lost. Only knowing how to bet long, means that you are running the EWP at only 50% efficiency, but that rate would jump by 100%, once we incorporate short selling into the mix.

I would be crazy to carry any long positions on the top of a Death Cross, as the Death Cross signals a big longterm downtrend still to come. The Death Cross has been used since 1929 helping the smart investor to escape the 1929 stock market crash, unscathed. For the last 3 months the 50-200-day MA has been incorporated into my wave positions as a permanent tool to use at major turnings. I’m working on about 5 of these tools that I post publically, but my in-house tools are only reserved for my most trusted paid clients.

You may never see another Minute degree wave positions counted out, as I only need all Minor, Intermediate, Primary, and Cycle degree peaks to build up a good cash base for a home based trading business. For my personal account, that magic number would be anything better than $89,000 USD cash!

Silver may have a $2 window at the bottom, which gives us little room to work with. SIL would be the silver miner stock equivilant, and it’s still heading down as well.

Commodities do not make soft landings folks, but they sure can end with a lot of violence in both directions. Silver under $13 US is the price to watch as below that number will confirm that sillver was just in a bear market rally.  Silver also had a traingle in its “B” wave so that forces my wave positions to end on at least 1 higher degree, which is Primary degree. Every 5th wave peak, “must always be capped” at all degree levels, and when I see so many analysts ignoring their 5th wave peaks, then I instantly know they are lost in their own wave counts.

The biggest deflationary decline is coming as the US dollar is in a far bigger bull market of Grand Supercycle degree. (GSC) It will be all the major corrections during this US dollar bull market, that will send silver and gold soaring and crashing.  Not until gold and silver has been crushed in price, will it be a good investment again like it was in 1950 and 2000.

Getting a 30 year bubble mixed up as just a continuation of a bull market, is the biggest mistake we can ever make. I could scream it all from the top of a building and the response would be, “Well, you never know”.  That response is normal from people that refuse to do any work at all in improving their analytics.

 

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DJIA Intraday Turning And Crash Review!

http://www.etf.com/sections/monthly-etf-flows/etf-monthly-fund-flows-july-2018

 

Investors poured $26.8 billion into stocks last month, and this month they are sitting on a Death Cross at this 90 min intraday scale. They are investing when the markets are at world record highs never seen before in history.  Investors are putting money into the markets just down from a historic Cycle degree wave 3 has already peaked.

Talk about brave investors buying on the dips. This kind of a move always coincides with a major top, and once they realize that the DJIA has crashed to 15,000 then we should hear news about funds flowing out again. We are in such a big inflated stock and housing bubble that nobody can afford anything decent to even rent in.

This has all happen before just in a different time period. Gold has finished a 30 year silver/gold mania peak n 2011, and it is far from finishing it’s correction. This is just the 90 min Death Cross set-up, as I have more Death Crosses than I can count! This is my third stock market crash I have called, even though my degree levels were of the charts!

There is a time to invest, and a time to sell and trade, and this record high is not my idea of smart investing.

Apple still has to flop as the rest wil drag everything down. No Little $1000 phone will stop that from happening. I love Apple products as I do all my work on my second iMac.

If you don’t think that the markets will crash then just spend a few hours and research everything about the world wide fertility crash that has been going on since the 1950’s.

I use my own indicators that I have developed over the years, and it is all based on gold and its ratio. I might have 10-15 of these ratios in a book and my record high expensive ratio for the DJIA was about 17.24:1. This means it took 17.24 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW. This record has been blown out of the water, as this morning the Gold/DJIA ratio hit 21:1! Yikes!

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Gold Daily Chart: $1120 Second Last Chance to Turn Into A Raging Gold Bull!

Gold’s little rally didn’t last to long  as it seems gold has resumed its downward trend. From the 2011 peak the pattern I have been working  is what I call a diagoanl 5 wave sequence, not a a 5 wave impulse sequence. Zigzags are king in the commodities world and gold is no exception in containing zigzags. Since I need a zigzag in this 5th wave, the choppy wave structure you see is a  “triangle” inside a “B” wave correction. This triangle is extremely important as it forces me to have one higher degree position ready, when gold has finished crashing, by later this fall. Gold $1120 leaves only “one” support leg left before it to crumbles in the dust!

Majority of wavers have twisted a bear market rally into a bull market, which is completely wrong, and those bullish wavers are going to cause you to take massive losses. These wavers have never been certified by EWI, and it seems they can turn water into wine as well. The miracle of laying down smoke and mirror BS seems to be a speciality in modern wave analysis.

If you haven’t figured it out yet (see the gold crash coming) then gold investors and gold bugs will suffer huge loses, and I won’t shed a tear. Most wavers don’t even recognize a gold mania bubble has burst back in 2011, they think its just an on going bull market correction. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak which will not get repeated until 2041.

The world is being setup for a massive deflationary crash of Cycle degree magnitude, which will take everything down and crush all rich investors to where they turn into shoeshine boys. I will not shed a single tear over the rich investors that think investing at the peak of a the bigest inflationary bubble of all time. Over and over the news will tell us how investors are suffering huge  losses, and it is the main reason I will never become an investor but only a trader.

folks, the exact same setup as in the 2008 top are being setup now, except now it will take much longer and gold will crash along with all other assets, escpecially real estate! Facebook is just a little opening shot, as it is going to get much worse by the end of this year. This time we will get a huge relief rally that could send the gold price soaring $1000 back up to the $1700-$1900 price range. This is a $200 window which could happen by summer 2019.  I’m short this market and the bearish forces will be the wind on my back when the $1047 price level gets breached.  If your gold stock invesment is not doing what you “hoped”, then chances are very good you are on the wrong side of the trade!

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Gold Weekly Chart Death Cross Review

Look back uptothe 2011 peak which is a 30 year cycle mania peak. it’s not a simple correction but it will be a full blown gold crash which noone alive today has ever experinced. The 2008 crash was just and example of what we are going to get. For the 2011 peak I now show a “Y” wave in cycle degree.  All the modern wave analsyts should instantly know the wave pattern this “Y” wave top will produce.  This “Y” wave top dosen’t change my short term or long range forecasts one bit, as it will stay exactly the same.

This “Y” wave crash has to produce another zigzag which is what I have, then the bottom must be an “X” wave. Gold at the $1300 daily chart level already had it’s first Death Cross. The weekly chart has already shown us gold below the 200-day MA so it is just a matter of time before another support leg crumbles. At gold $1100 there would only be a window of $52 at best, for this so called bull market to turn. Once gold cut through the $1047 price then the game is up as all gold investors were in a bull trap.  Speculators are still in a bull trap so there will be more gold selling for sure.  Banks in their infinate wisdom were buying gold above $1300 , so once gold support is broken then, they will get in a panic as well as the gold price plunges. GLD and IAU will have to join in on the selling to cut back their share count as well.

So here gold sits with two more Death Crosses to come below present prices. Folks, the whole world is invested at the top of Death Crosses across all commodaties and stock exchanges so this is not a a good bullish sign for gold. The inflationist are getting it all wrong as the gold price has nothing to do with money printing. It’s all about the volocity of any money that produces inflation. Shopping for school suplies can cause inflation and christmas shopping sure can get the velocity of money moving.RRSP season in the spring will increase the volocity in the spring.

We are in a massive world real estate bubble never before matched in history and all the rich people holding 2 or more homes will get killed in a massive real estate crash and deleveraging process that goes with it.

Every gold bull and every gold bear will be watching these two sets of prices. The $1400 price for the big bullish breakout and below $1047 the gold bears will be proven right. I have many people I know that are also whatching this happen from their iPhone apps.

There is a time to invest in gold and then there is a time to trade it, and investing on top of a Death Cross is not my idea of investing, that’s financial suicide.

Everything I have been saying is still on track and needs no further adjustments.

 

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Mini SP500 Top And Death Cross Below!

 

If you have never heard about this “Death Cross” thing then I strongly recommend that you research it, to know what happens once a Death Cross has formed.

I want to know before any DC forms, not after. Sure this could keep rolling around the 50-day MA, but as soon as this market is set to turn down, then the 50-day will slice through the 200-day MA and an instant Death Cross will get formed.  I saw very quickly that this 50-200-day MA could enhance my Cycle degree forecasting and trading that I have incorporated it, as one of my official indicators that can be use in Cycle degree wave analysis. I’m working on about 5 indicators which is all you need to spot a crash before it happens.

I changed my wave position to an Intermediate degree 5 wave run, because we may get a Cycle degree zigzag in stocks as well. The odds are increasing every week and month that goes by. If any part of this decline starts on a fast descent, then we could also be looking at an Intermediate degree zigzag crash. There is also a high degree of correlation going on with the gold sectors as they all are ending up crashing together. This is going to be a deflationary crash that will make the 2008 crash look like a garden party.

The 2008 crash lasted about 8 months during it worst phase, now imagine the same thing, but lasting 1-2 years. If there are young Millennials out there looking to “invest” in their own home, then I strongly suggest to wait for three years. This insane real-estate market will show you a whole new landscape by the end of Cycle degree wave 4.

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GLD: Bear Market Progress Update.

 

Always remember that the Death Cross is alive and real in gold, which GLD represents very well. GLD follows the futures chart very well except GLD has its patterns a bit smoother. I always had gold as a bear market rally, but was not sure of the location or excatly the pattern that we were going to get. One support leg has already been “taken out” while 3 more bull market support price levels will get taken out as well.

The entire bullish gold investors universe rests on one price to hold at $100 while $80 in GLD was always major support from my perspective. This 5th wave has one little special wave in it and that is it has a triangle in the “B” wave position. This little triangle is a clear signal that my wave count has to end on a higher degree, once the 5th wave bottom has clearly formed.  I will not take a position in GLD when the bottom arrives as I will see what IAU does. Most of my attention will be on GDX and gold stock ETFs.

My Cycle degree wave positions will eventually give me enough to create a very good home based income all based on cash flow. Cash is king in my world, so I use my cash base as an escape route if necessary. The only thing I need is to protect my cash, so I can keep betting the way I’m used to doing.

“All” the gold investors think we just finish a gold bull market correction, when in fact the 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak, that will not happen again until 2041! (2011+30) 2041 will be the home of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, but I will never see it happen. It’s the younger generation of wave analysts that might catch it.

The US dollar is in a huge bull market that the gold experts do not understand, if they are expecting the US dollar to crash. Good luck with that as I tried for years to do the same thing and it never worked. At every 30 year gold peak it’s time to sell all excess bullion, as it sure is not the time to “invest” in gold assets.

Any Cycle degree wave 4 has to look much like the crude oil crash has already done, while gold topped 3 years after oil. Oil is giving us a preview in what gold should eventually look like as well.  That was a soft landing in late 2015, and I assure you bear markets do not land softley. They end with a crash!

I’m very bearish on gold and gold stocks and have taken bearish positions in mostly GDX and IAU. Any doubt, then my trading account records will confirm that these positions have been taken. My GDX positions are all traded with real money and “No Stops” of any type.

 

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SP500 Intraday Top Update!

As we can see the Sp500 made a quick reversal today which could hold.  All bear market rallies get retraced so I hope investors are reading this as a bearish rally. After all no new record highs have been recorded in the SP500 in 2018.  Any wave 2 rally in any degree is a bear market rally so this move should clear all 2018 lows. I cannot stress it enough times and that is. I am swamped with Death Crosses below present prices in just about everything except for the US dollar. Major metals as well, which means it’s all going down together! This setup feels just like the top of 2008 and the following gold crash down to $700. This all spells extreme deflation is coming our way and any asset class that’s not safe and secure will suffer devastating price declines. The inflation party is over as most world currencies are imploding making the USD the place to be.

Real-estate prices should take a major hit in the next three years leaving people trapped in their homes as the price of their homes crash. Just checking the futures lumber prices, they have been on a crash course, which the ETF (CUT) also confirms. International Forest Products (IFP) a company that I worked for most of my working years also has a crashing stock price.

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August Crude Oil: Will It Hold Its Peak?

You can automatically assume that commodaties are sitting on a Death Cross, even if I don’t show them. I will be reducing my intraday positions as I’m not a day trader, and have no desire to become one. I’m short crude oil in a small forex account and have not been urged  to take profit. Let the bet ride, as the support bullish trend line is not going to hold oil back for any reason.  Traders are starting to get very nervous with any small decline, but they ain’t seen nothing yet. Oil bulls are going to see “red” while the short player sees green. Shamrock Green.  🙄

There are a host of indicators all confirming the same thing, as the commercials are so heavy short that there is no way a super bull market in oil can even get off the ground.

This morning the Gold/Oil ratio was still getting close to 17:1, which means that the Gold/Oil ratio is hitting a brick wall. Of course our great Photo Bomb leader wants a carbon tax to help stop climate change. Carbon tax on oil is the biggest mistake any governmet can make, as it is based on falsified data from the experts. The people know this and the conservatives know they can form a new government, based solely on fighting the Carbon Tax. The world fertility crash will fix the CO2 problem, and my bet is that the CO2 PPM (410) will implode in the next 50 years.

Oil is in a bear market rally,and incase you don’t know what that is or means then I strongly suggest you do some research on it. A bear market rally “always” returns to the point of orgin and below. That makes oil at below $28 a distinct possibility again.

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Crashing Lumber Prices Update

The last time I was calling for a top in lumber prices it was starting to form that, now obvious spike, that we still can see. These spikes show up as thin hairs in candlestick, and I decided pretty early on, that I didn’t want to count  hairs for the rest of my life. Imagine me trying to make a living counting hairs, yet the entire world uses candlestick constantly.  The entire world can’t make that single click to dump candlestick when producing positions in commodities.  I will not post intraday charts on lumber, as I don’t have the time, and will not fill out every little wiggle that we might come across to entertain my readers.

It is very important to track lumber as I see it as being the canary in a coal mine, to what is going  to happen across the entire real-estate world. I believe that the Cycle degree wave 3 position is good, and that we could be at a position where lumber prices could be subdued for many decades to come. It has to do with the world fertility rate implosion, that is going to have huge implications on the prices of all commodities including precious metals of all types. They are all sitting on Death Crosses, and we can see that lumber  has rolled over and will slice that 200-day MA creating the Death Cross at the same time. This is a Cycle degree crash and we could be heading for a bear market that will kill many jobs, that may never come back!

Been there done that folks, as we are facing the same situation that happen when I was working in the forest industry, when gold crashed in 1980. My buddy still works in the same sawmill when I joined them as my plant was toast a long time ago by then. We hope to have a bigger meeting with more of his co-workers sometime, but after they meet me, they may never talk to me again.  Gold bugs tend to get pretty agitated when you tell them that gold is going to crash below $800. I like watching them squirm when I say the $700-$800 gold is real support, not that unstable $1050 price level, that the entire gold investing community thinks is a base. The gold boom is over, and it was finished in 2011 as that was a 30 year gold mania top, that will not happen again until 2041 or Supercycle degree peaks.

At this stage of the game it looks like so many asset classes are sitting on Death Cross, that I have to shake my head in disbelieve thinking that this can’t happen.

I have been showing another friend who has lost millions and made millions, and I showed him my gold scenario, and so far he has directly told me that he agrees with the impending gold crash. This person is the only person that has seen my charts in great detail in the last decade as we are both traders at heart. Some of my old bosses turned to futures trading once they retired as well.

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