I love to show the DJIA in a linear chart as it shows the last year or so as a near vertical move. This move was what they called the Trump Bump and a few other names. The majority, though the bull market was over as the markets plunged in reaction to Donald Trump being elected as president. I was one of the few that didn’t fall for that and sure enough the stock market reversed its losses and proceeded to soar.
It soared higher with a constant barrage of new record highs being broken, and it still may not be finished as I post. 22,773 seems to be the present record high.
1929 to 1932 was a major bear market, producing a depression during that time. From some of the worst fundamentals in stock market history, the markets turned and charged up for many decades with many crashes and corrections along the way. Crashes, corrections and bear markets are going to continue to happen if my single idealized wave pattern is true. These bull market phases since the 2000 peak are the results of extended wave 3s that have been happening since the 1932 bottom. If our wave count is wrong for 1929-1932 then all the cosmetic wave counting in the world will not find us a better fit.
Yes 5th waves extend, but 5th waves also tend to be the shortest waves most of the time. Since the 1932 bottom I use no 4th waves in SC degree or 4th waves in Cycle degree in the 70s bear market. The EWP clearly says that wave 3s are never the shortest wave, yet the majority of all expert wave analysts in the world, are based on 5th wave extensions. Extending 5th waves and never looking for the alternative wave 3 extensions will always force the wave counts into a much higher degree. The next thing we know is that 2000 becomes a SC or even GSC wave 3. Any wave 4 in any degree has a very specific simple idealized wave structure, that must get confirmed.
Of course I followed along and used to count everything in GSC and then in SC degree, yet none of the waves required never materialized. When that fails, it’s not a failure of the EWP, but it is a failure of humans to think objectively and sequentially. Most people are biased in some shape or form and wave analysts are no different. It took me until 2013 before I dumped all SC and GCS degree thinking. I use an idealized wave structure to tell me what I’m supposed to be looking for, and try not to practice cosmetic wave counting.
Markets never make it that easy where the wave count is so clear. If they were, we would have many wave counting billionaires in the world today. Yet when you look at the contrarians today most of them will never be caught dead drawing out a bunch of numbers and letters.
I’m anticipating a Cycle degree stock market correction, which the majority will call a bear market by the time it shows itself. A big bear market is just a correction in an ongoing bigger bull market, which from my perspective, is the SC and GSC degree levels. Both degree levels are already in extended waves.
There are three main price hurdles that this impending wave 4 needs to retrace in the next 3-4 years. One of them is the complete retracement of the Trump Rally, and then as a bare minimum, the markets must dip well into the 2007 peaks in all indices, not just the DOW.
With the DJIA this would be well below the 14,000 price level. The last hurdle to cross would be a complete retracement of the stock mania that started in 2011. That would take us below the DJIA 10,000 price level. Once the Trump Rally is completely retraced, then we will be left with a single long spike to the upside for many years to come.
Our present tall skinny looking 5th wave is the opposite of the long skinny spike to the downside that ended in early 2009. From a bear spike in 2009 to a bull spike in 8 years or so, is a nice Fibonacci round number. Many markets move in Fibonacci years, but the underlining driving force of the markets is the solar cycle.
At this time, many experts are still expecting for stock prices to “melt-up” so to speak. This is very standard bullish talk at the peak of any bull market. At the extreme, wave positions cannot be in sympathy with the bullish herd, as the waves always act the opposite of popular opinion. Investors love to buy high as they feel safe amongst millions of others doing the same thing.
In reality insiders have sold in May 2017, and in the long run retail investors will be left holding a portfolio of worthless paper, again.
What amazes me many times, is how short of a memory investors really have, as they have learned nothing in the last 17 years. It is mathematically impossible for the majority to win at this investing game, as they are always too early or too late when making a decision. Seasoned contrarians know this very well, and have perfected the art of buying low and selling high to the emotional investors.
As scary as it sounds, I watched more 1929 documentaries and there is not much difference as investors were extremely bullish in 1928 as well.