Tag Archives: Brexit

Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Let’s Get Vertical!

 

YMU16-June-29-2016

 

We are seeing a good vertical move in the DJIA, which should bring us one of two things next, An obvious correction, or a downright resumption of the super bears forecasts. You know those guys that always tell you, It’s going to get much worse”.  How many times have we heard that tired old phrase?  Have all the fundamental experts had enough time to analyze everything, to come up with a fundamental market forecast?  Sure, they have as it’s their job.  Chances are good they are as clueless as the herd!

At this time I can have two big patterns in progress, and I just can’t get my head around a big 5 wave impulse decline just yet. There are impulse 5 waves and there are diagonal five wave moves, up or down, so this move must not breach any pre Brexit top, which is the highest peak you see.  If It does, it means the bearish news, was all a big bag of wind!  

From a weekly chart the Brexit news barely made a ripple, as in the intraday charts it was a different story. 

Let’s say that the 2015 peak was a real diagonal 5 waves up, with a Cycle degree wave 3 top. What pattern and wave count would we eventually need, to confirm this Cycle degree wave 3 top? We still would not get 5 waves down in Primary degree, but 5 waves down in Intermediate degree would have to happen, on the trailing “C” wave of a flat. Of course a zigzag would require two sets of 5 Intermediate degree waves.  

At this point we may never see a run of 5 waves down in Primary degree, for several more decades!   Chances are much better that we will see 5 waves up in Primary degree first!  It is much easier to figure out what we need from well constructed idealized charts, then count out what sounds sensational. 

We have a choice of 4 big corrective patterns to come with the stock markets, and that is the simple zigzag, simple flat, expanded flat, or a triangle. The triangle would be my least favorite pattern yet to come, and a zigzag looks a bit iffy right now, but an expanded or simple flat I do like.  I would like to see more evidence to be more sure, but flats happen in 4th wave crashes regularly.   

One thing is certain, and that is, if we are out by one degree our forecast will mean nothing, and you will be ill prepared when that big bottoms come due. Price will not do! 

Hits: 0

Mini DJIA Intraday Post Brexit Crash Review

 

YMU16-June-28-2016

 

We see the results of the Brexit vote and they voted with their finger on the “sell” button. What happens now? I can only talk about it in Elliott Wave terms, and from a Cycle degree perspective.  The big SC and GSC degree wave counts must be the 5 waves in Primary degree, because it they don’t get it again, their wave counts would  still be severely flawed. All my work is about two degrees lower, and 2 degrees doesn’t sound like much, but it is a real big thing if there is a 1.618 difference between each degree. (60%)

In a bearish phase certain things have to happen, to keep confirming the so called start of a big bear market, otherwise we are not in the bear market just yet. One big thing is I would not want to see this market retrace back above my 4th wave top, as that would be a good limit. Then this market should head back down with another bearish leg. Above all, this DJIA must not exceed or retrace the entire decline, because that would make the majority wrong.

The SC and GSC degree wave counters only have one big pattern they are looking for,  but in my Cycle degree world I can always have 5. Most of the time we can eliminate a few right off, but 2-3 alternate wave counts can always be active at the same time.

What would happen if the Cycle degree wave 3 is still ahead of us and not behind us? If so, then this market will display an entirely different bear market pattern. It would also give us a false forecast on how deep that crash would go. Are we going to get caught by the wave counters that forecast DOW 3500 or Dow 1000, if it stops dead at 6000? Of course I may be wrong with that number as well, so maybe it will stop at 5999.  🙂 

Hits: 0

DJIA, Are We In A Bear Trap?

 

DJIA-June-26-2016

 

We have heard all about the Brexit vote results, and the markets imploded? This was very bearish fundamental news, and you would expect, that the game is over. Right? Ah, but what Brexit did will produce a backlash which the talking heads already have a name for, It’s called Regrexit!  .   Right now we could be in a triangle, and triangles can produce some stunning reversals.  Next week should tell. 

 

Hits: 0

US Dollar Bullish Spike Review.

 

DXY00-June-24-2016

 

I didn’t expect such a short correction, but the USD shot up during the Brexit turmoil, which stands to reason as the US dollar can act as a safe-haven as well.  Brexit, was more about currency values than about anything else as the GBP  has confirmed this as it dropped like a rock in the last day or so. In the end, I’m glad that the UK is switching back even though it may take some time to adjust. I say that because of the GBP larger wave pattern of a triangle, in Cycle degree.  

My USD decline from above the 100 price level is still a diagonal wave decline, as that is the only thing I have that will fit at this time.  On the much smaller scale, there seems to be 5 waves up, so one more leg up could happen. 

Hits: 0

Crude Oil Bust Review

 

CLQ16-June-24-2016

 

This Brexit vote has all the world in a shock, as they say even the bookies didn’t get it right! This will soon be in the past, as the wave counts never stop coming. Oil crashed as I though it would, but it has now stopped with a very good looking “ABC” correction. If oil has seen a bottom and we do get a rally, then this could still be a “C” wave bullish phase. There is always another crash after an inverted move. This would be part of a potential triangle, and we would have to watch for any impulse waves not acting to the impulse script.

Overall crude oil became cheaper, as the gold/oil ratio hit 27:1 again.  This oil drop brought out all the oil bears so when the bears dominate, they can also be in a bear trap. Nothing suggests that this crude oil bull market is over and done with, but we are under a diagonal type bull market.  Diagonals are much harder to pick tops and bottoms with, but keeping an eye on the “ABCs” helps to pick lows. 

Can this oil pop up as an inverted wave 2? Sure, it can as there are always 5 choices at any turning point. I constantly try to eliminate patterns, and what is left can be a much better wave count.

Hits: 0

Gold Intraday Post Brexit Review

 

GCY00-June-24-2016

 

Gold charged up last night, and has now produced a long spike which can be very bearish depending on where we count from. If we ignore the past, then any wave count makes no sense, and they become pretty useless. I am sure the super gold bulls will expect gold to travel much further with many more legs up, but those people forget about stock mania, having the ability to destroy any gold bullish  phase in the first place. Gold will be close to a 5 year bear market in a few more months, which was caused by the switch that investors made, running back into stocks in 2011.

Now we have just witnessed the exact opposite as fear dominates and gold benefits as a safe-haven place to run to. Well, who says that the safe-haven status is going to last? It will only last as long as stocks are going down, or perceived to be going down, after that they can dump gold faster than you and I can change our shirts!  😉 

From all these wild gyrations, the gold/oil ratio got better. Oil became cheaper when compared to gold,  as this morning the gold/oil ratio hit 27.55:1. 

There may be a 5th wave still to play out, but that will also run into the top trend line, so I don’t expect it to go very far. Gold touched the $1355 price level, which was well within my target price range. I even have some room to spare so technically no big gold wave counts have been broken, with this wild move.  If a wave count can stand up to a wild move like this, then it may have a bit longer life span. 

Hits: 0

Mini DJIA Brexit Crash Review

 

YMU16-June-24-2016

 

The DJIA took a big hit as I read about an 800 overall point drop. About the same point drop as two 1929 crashes  at the same time. Of course in percentage terms, it’s not even close.  There may still be another 4th and 5th wave to complete, but it should not go to a new major low.   As we can see this drop was fairly vertical which means a crash, and after any crashes the markets end up going much higher. 

Did the high speed traders spot this before it happened, or did their algorithms do all the work? Only the people that were in before the event capitalized on it, as the others will just chase any trend they think is happening at any given time.  I think all my readers got lots of warning that a down cycle was coming so now we have to see if a double bottom will hold. 


GCY00-2-June-23-2016

 

Of course gold reacted in a predictable way, as this last night gold chart clearly shows.  I will cover gold later, but it is interesting to see gold shoot up this fast. The only way to catch something like this is you have to be in the trade  before the move not after the move. Of course the stop loss order would get hit, and the next thing you know, gold blasts up leaving you empty handed.  

Very few people are sitting on their screens to catch this, except a few professionals that trade for a living. 

Hits: 0

GBP, British Pound Crash Post Brexit Vote Review

 

B6U16-June-20-2016

This is the GBP before any Brexit vote and the trend was down already! I’m showing a big Cycle degree triangle  and the last part will be the “E” wave in Primary degree. I consider the “E” wave as one move, with three parts to it. This divides into 5-3-5 patterns. 

B6Y00-June-24-2016

A week or so later, after the Brexit vote shock wave has crashed the GBP,  what has changed? Not much, as the trend was confirmed by the news. In the end the GBP is going to end up at the same place. Remember this is just the vote, the real deal is yet to come until the GBP crashes at a potential 4th wave bottom.

After a 4th wave bottom the GBP should go on a massive bull market that will surprise everyone.  We are still a long way from any major bottom so patience is required. 

 

 

GCY00-2-June-23-2016

I thought I would add last nights gold move, as it was a pretty impressive move. I will talk more about gold later as I want to review many more charts today. 

Hits: 2

Mini SP500 In A Brexit World.

 

ESU16-June-24-2016

 

Now that the dust is starting to settle after this end of the world Brexit vote,  where do we go from here? Up, of course. That is my take on things, but in reality think of this crash as a mini 1987 crash, and we know what happened after the 1987 crash. The markets rose higher and soared for many more years.

This crash looks like a 4th wave pattern has completed, but I have major conflicting patterns in my cash charts at this time.  So is this big Brexit vote the fundamental news going to tell us where every trend is going to go to next? No, not a chance,  as this vote sent shock waves through the entire financial system, and it is easy to spot on my 25 or so charts I read during the day.  In a few years nobody will tell the difference as the wild swings will all start to blend in. 

I’m not going to spend too much time in each posting today, but will try and  work on as many charts as I can. 

This Mini SP500 came so close to my target it even surprised me, but again other cash charts do not confirm this.  This is pretty normal so I have my work cut out for me. 

 

Hits: 0

Gold Intraday Review: Last Chance To Turn Around!

This was meant to be posted earlier in the day, but it never got published.

GCY00-June-23-2016

 

Since the gold peak, gold has made another ugly decline that doesn’t want to quit. It has gone deep enough for a 4th wave bottom, and in the last few days gold has changed its pattern again as it may be heading for an ending diagonal. I even gave gold a small expanded flat for the highest peak in June. 

I worked the counter rally with a wild triangle in it, so if this is true then gold’s slide should halt.  

The worst case is that gold is on a diagonal decline, with lots more downside to go, which is my least favorite alternative at this time.  I’m not going to spend too much time with each commentary today as I want to cover 2 or 3 other asset classes. 

—————————–

Updated later June 23, 2016

GCY00-2-June-23-2016

 

The first chart was before Brexit and now after Brexit gold has charged up with close to a $100 move in half a day.

Gold touched the $1355 price level, but I still had a bit to spare, before major wave counts got trashed.  I also fine tuned the wave count a bit, but otherwise it is in the same degree. Is this the top?, I think so, but we always have to be aware of any alternates as soon as we spot them. It will take a day or so to start seeing patterns with bigger subdavistions. There are 5 waves in this spike to the moon, and the gap we did have was closed off. 

Stocks crashed, oil crashed, the US dollar soared, and yes, the USD soared right along with gold!  Needless to say I am no longer bullish on gold, but bullish on stocks.  In the end the true trend will assert itself again.

This gold bullish phase that started on May 29th is far too steep to be maintained, and at a minimum a correction is due.   

Hits: 1