T-Notes Intraday Crash Update

This chart I show is at another very low point of T-Notes.  As long as these 10 Year T-Notes keep crashing chances are good that interest rates are going to keep going up.  The entire 10-Year T-Note bull market is a big diagonal bull market.  I’m pushing my luck if I think that we can hit a major bottom soon so these intraday wave counts can be off by a mile.

The media is freaking out about the bond crash so a reversal would be nice. This diagonal 4th wave bottom should produce 5 waves back up in Minor degree which can turn into a zigzag. They say that three more rate increases are coming this year, but they will only come if the free market allows them to do it.

The 30-day Fed Funds rate also controls what the Fed can do, or has to do. Commercials are net long the T-Notes but not by a large extreme. Even that can produce a short bear market rally that many may thing is heading back into a bull market.

The need for safety in T-Notes could also send T-Notes soaring so the investors that are dumping right now can flip on a dime and chase yet another bullish phase.  If this rally starts to distort too much or go sideways with a questionable pattern, then this big bearish move may not be finished.

 

When we look across the top we can see a big flat where they practically were giving the money away for close to 6-7 years. How deep this 30-Day fund rate can crash down to is just pure speculation at this time, but we could start to see a flat bottom form when it finishes  going down.

Setting any moving averages 90 and 30 days will show the “Death Crosses” and “Golden Crosses” sooner than later. The last “Death Cross” happen at the top about 2 years ago, so eventually we would have to see the “Golden Cross”, after this chart turns north again.

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