The Fed has pretty well said that no more rate increases will happen in 2019. Everybody on the planet knows about it and investors loved it by buying stocks. All this is fine and dandy but when they stop rate increases, a recession usually follows. There is no way that the world will escape a recession and China is leading the pack. T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981. Sure we had major Bond crashes in the past but T-Bonds charged higher after each correction/crash.
I counted out the top as an expanded pattern this time but the end result should be the same as T-Bonds will charge to new record highs once again.
All the commercial hedgers are still net long across many different maturities so it is futile to look for the great bond crash that many experts expect.
There still are different choices for wave count I can have as connecting zigzags is the name of the game in the T-bond pattern. Over 36 years of a choppy diagonal wave structure and its still bullish.
The odds that 1982 was a Supercycle degree wave 2 bottom is hard to understand by most, but T-Bonds also had a 120-year bear market which might even be harder to understand. ( Zigzag from about 1861 to 1982) 30-60 and 90-year cycles are also all part of it.