You may be hearing about US treasuries being dumped or sold off, but when the bearish news is rampant, and more rate increases seem imminent, then the markets do the exact opposite and reverse their trends. The bull market has reversed after every major crash or correction since 1981 and I’m sure it’s doing it again. T-Bonds hit a bottom on Oct, 9th at the 136.500 price level, and so far it’s still holding. It’s not about rates rising that is killing the “T-Bonds”, but it’s the falling T-Bond prices that forces or allows the Fed to increase rates. The Fed is basing all rate increases on lagging indicators and if I’m right then sooner or later they will have to “pause”.
Since the 2000 crash bottom, we have had a solid bull market with some wild and crazy overlapping wave structures. “All” commodities can create these choppy waves, and that has been going on since the Little Ice Age bottom in 1500 CME. T-Bonds are on a Supercycle degree wave 3 rally that has 120-year cycles to them. From the 1861 peak, T-Bonds took 120 years to complete a zigzag correction, and I’m sure the next real bullish phase top will not happen until 2101! 2041 would be a 60-year top and my Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Of course, I can never confirm that as that would be a job for a very young analyst to do.
Two years and 6 months with well over 1 million page views, not a single budding wave analyst has expressed any interest in switching to Cycle degree wave analysis. With this lack of interest, chances are good I may shut down this blog permanently once solar cycle #25 starts to crank up in 2022.