T-Bonds 1981-2016 Review


This is the December T-Bond chart showing the bull market that started in 1981 and has churned its way up until 2016 about 37 years later.  2016 was the bottom of Intermediate degree 4th wave  correction bottom in stocks. TLT has already pushed lower, so that instantly calls for looking into an alternate position.  1981 was also the bottom of a 120-year bear market, which I think is wave 2 in SC degree and that another 120-year bullish phase is in effect. Corrections and crashes are thrown in to keep all the analysts guessing. Two parallel lines, one to highlight the support trendline,  and the other to show the trend across the tops.

There is no way of really knowing if Cycle degree wave 1 has completed, but I’m sure this crash would not be enough. T-Bonds are a diagonal type of a bull market which all commodities run under!

The commercials did add to the short positions last week, which pushed TLT to a new low. T-Bonds still have to follow TLT and this may clear up once all the midterm election results are digested later tonight.

As we can see T-Bond crashes in the past have been dramatic like in the 1998-1999 crash. Not a single crash since 1981 was followed by a bear market as the crashes recovered and then continued to new record highs. I expect about the same this time but where we are in this potential Cycle degree peak is still uncertain. In the long run, rising rates are not good for the gold price as investors get a return in T-Bonds but gold only goes up or down. Look what happened to gold in 1980 which produced a bear market that never ended until 1999!

I may change this big count back to 5 waves in Primary degree, but at this time I will keep this zigzag going.



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