T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981 and show no signs of a major reversal just yet. I’m sure we may see a “Bond War” in the future where several other countries dump US treasuries in an effort to kill the US dollar. From 1998 to 2000 T-Bonds imploded in a very fast move that resembles a crash. Since 2000 T-Bonds have been in a bullish phase that defies description as it is full of choppy waves which work best as diagonal wave structures.
T-Bonds are the only asset class that is in an SC degree bull market and if we are lucky any new record high could be pointing us to a Cycle degree wave 1 peak. This will not happen until all 5 waves in Minor degree have fully developed.
Tuesday’s Market Vane Report showed a high of 53% bulls present. That’s a far cry from the 83% 24-month reading we did come from.
The commercial traders still have healthy net long positions across many of the different maturity years. As I post T-Bonds are still acting bearish, but when it turns we should see another leg up.
At the 158 price level, T-Bonds will face some stiff resistance, which should also produce another correction.