This week may be the last week, that any March contracts will be finished, after which I have to jump to June contracts with most of the indices I cover. From Friday’s decline the markets found some joy and soared in hopes things will not be as bad as it seems. As long as the media is conducting a trade war, the chances for the markets to go down outnumber and reason that that this market should go up!
Trade war fears are not going to go away, as this kind of action has worldwide domino repercussions. 30-Day Fed Fund rates still have downside potential, which means that rate increases, are still to come during 2018.
We need the markets to clearly show lower highs, but these can happen in any 4th wave as well. This is what happened in the 2015 correction. If another small degree wave 2 rally is in progress, then the SP500 cannot go higher than my “B” wave in Minor degree. (Blue). This “B” wave I’m showing is the start of a potential zigzag in intermediate degree.
This would be the start of a Cycle degree zigzag wave 4 correction, which the majority of analysts will call a “bear market”.
We can have market crashes without the bear market, as that is exactly what happened in the crash of 1987. The 87 crash was over in a few short months, but it sure will take longer in today’s markets. The 87 crash was only a Minor degree wave 3 crash, which the majority of wave analysts have used as a Primary degree crash. My 1987 crash Minor degree wave count, is a “Full” 2 degrees lower, in what the experts have used.
These contracts that trade during the night, do produce some erroneous spikes that don’t show up, when switching this chart into line type charts. The markets are still heading higher as I post, but we can take a bit more. We just can’t clear the “B” wave in Minor degree.