Investors had a bit of downtime on Monday but the SP500 peaked out on Friday, January 18th. Since then the SP500 has been slowly grinding down. The entire move since late 2018 sure fits into a 3 wave move which can be just a bear market rally. On Sunday we also had a full moon which can act like a bull trap at certain times. The world sad state of affairs will not get fixed with just a short correction as it will take years to unwind the deep debt that all governments are presently in. At the 2680 price level, we also have a very tall H&S pattern being set-up which would be very bearish if the bear market rally is real.
The trend lines are there as it also looks like a rising wedge at this intraday level. Not until the SP500 crashes well below the 2580 price level, can we still be in a bigger bullish phase?
The question I always have for the stock bulls is, “Where is this bullish phase going to”? Is the “bottom in”? Is it a bottom for a return to a multi-year bull market? I’m looking for a bullish phase as well, but this is not it no matter how bearish the stock bears become. Insiders would also be buying their own shares back and I don’t mean using shareholders money to try and manipulate their own stocks. Buy-backs manipulate earnings with only a temporary effect even though they waste shareholders money. Companies that pay dividends or buy their own shares back are sending clear signals telling you, ” We have nothing better to do with investors money”.
Apple fits that description very well and once it started paying dividends under investors pressures, its innovations declined. When we read countless stories about insider buying their own shares back then we might see a potential bottom for a big bullish move. Insiders did this on a massive scale in 2008, and they do not buy on a whim, and they most certainly don’t sell on a “Whim”. A bottom with insider buying lasts much longer so if you were still bearish in March 2009 you will be left holding a wooden nickle like all the wave analysts did. Thinking back to 2009 can give most investors brain cramps as researching that far back sounds too much like work. Talking about the market peaks in 2000 would be 18 year ancient history.
Solar Cycle #24 was underway by early 2009 yet all the wave analysts ignored this fact as in 2009 they all had very bearish wave counts. The wave analysts that are still chasing 5 waves down in Primary degree are living in La-La Land as they have learned nothing in the last 18 years! Expert wave analysts are also telling us that 5th waves can extend 50 years or more which I think is impossible as 5th waves always contain the weakest fundamentals. Besides that, not a single 4th wave bottom in 1932 or 1974 have the markets ever retraced back to. The reason this has never happened is that 1932 was not a 4th wave bottom in SC degree.
2020-2021 could see the arrival of solar cycle #25 and being bearish when a solar cycle starts to crank-up will put investors right back into a bear trap much like early 2009! Solar cycle studies were in the books of EWI, yet at that time they ignored solar cycles just like they ignored insider buying.