This is the weekly chart of the June SP500 contract. Our present 2019 stock rally is about 43 points from breaking out but even it stays at the peak today, I will try my extended wave count.
It was the 2011 bottom that is important as it matched the “Peak Gold Mania” of 2011 as well. The other big event that happened at that time was that solar cycle 24 hit its first peak in September 2011.
Basically, I extended the Minor degree part which makes the 2015-2016 correction a wave 3-4 bear market. Since then this market just doesn’t want to stop, but I think resistance is building up. In the last 15-16 months, we are looking at a potential triple top.
The present top also could produce a “Right Shoulder” which if the SP500 is very bearish, the markets will not blast to another record high.
The hedgers are no help at all as the commercials only have a very small net short position.
On a daily chart, the SP500 is still in a golden cross position, but a good correction can produce a death cross with little effort.
The 4th wave bottom support in late December 2018 is also where the 200-day MA is sitting. In order for the SP500 to hit the 200-day MA again, the entire 2019 bull market must eventually be completely retraced. That would put the SP500 below the 2300 price level.
I use the Gold/SP500 ratio and it is always a good idea to make calculations when the markets approach record highs. The record expensive ratio was 2.41:1, with today’s calculation coming in at 2.28:1.