SP500 1980-2016 Cycle Degree Review

 

 

At every turning I ask 3-5 questions, assuming that the position is correct from an idealized perspective. In this case a Cycle degree perspective. I spent a good part of my life chasing the wrong degree, along with everyone else on this planet. I continuously lowered my degree levels with no real plan, but now I go at it far more systematically. The high degree wave counters continuously missed major bull markets in every major asset class that I cover, yet the contrarians saw a bull market coming far better than any wave counter ever did. 

By insiders I mean the owners of the stocks that make up all the 5 indices that I carry wave counts on. Not until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are confirmed as being completed, can we ever hope to enter the SC degree world. 

Besides counting in a high degree makes us very insensitive to the bearish mood, as the 2009 bottom clearly showed us. Every insider on the planet was buying stocks back in late 2008 already, while the entire wave counting herd was on the most bearish wave count in history. How did that work out for everybody? 

Insiders do not buy on a whim, as they may hold for many years before ever selling out, so this alone killed the stock bear market in 2009.  

Meanwhile Kaplan, one of my favorite contrarians was calling for the biggest bull market since the depression. Even Warren Buffet was very bullish in late 2008. 

All this under the Elliott Wave forecasts of DOW 1000.  Well, DOW 1000 would put the SP500 at well below 70 points.  No way was this going to happen, as we now know looking in hindsight. Hindsight is a powerful tool and as wave analysts must always go back to find a better fit. Those that do not look back in time, will always have wave counts that will miss bull markets and even miss bear markets as well.  

The Cycle degree 4th wave position can have a lot of leeway, but it would not surprise me if the SP500 stopped short and then charged back up. This all has to happen before or just a bit after solar cycle #25 starts. 

The sun dominates and controls all action on our planet, and if the herd has turned all bearish at that time, then they will miss another one of the greatest bull markets since the Roaring 20’s.  

A Cycle degree decline should put the USA and Canada into another recession, and Canada is already well on its way.  They may end up calling it a depression, but it would be over as soon as those words come out of their mouth! 

At every wave 3 top I look for a pattern from a choice of 5, Two patterns we can eliminate right away, which leaves us with a potential of 3 simple corrective patterns that we should expect. The book tells us exactly what degree levels we need for all this to come true.  I will keep all three open at this time, but the triangle is at the bottom of the list.  There is not enough time in a triangle to play out in its entirety, before 2021.

Again, I would like to thank all the readers that have pushed the monthly pages read to its highest levels since I started blogging. Today we have achieved well over 24,000 pages read, and we still have a few days or so to go. Higher pages being read translates into higher ad revenues as well. 

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