The sunspot number has now been updated to the December end of 2017. The majority couldn’t care less about any influences our sun has on the stock markets back here on earth. Many have researched this connection, as I have done for the last 20 years. Each black dot is a month end calculation of sunspot activity.
We had two major peaks in sunspot activity, one correlated well with the 2011 gold peak and the January 2014 peak coincided before my wave 3 in Intermediate degree ended. The 2002-2008 sunspot count starting to decline, but the markets loved it at least until 2007.
It may still take a full 3 years until sc#24 ends, and when sc#25 starts from this 2021 time frame, then the markets should follow suite. Many times the markets experience great upheaval just a year or so before the solar cycle hits a bottom. With the Fed change coming this February, there is usually some upheaval in the markets as well, especially if the markets have already crossed over to the bearish side. In the end sc#24 produced the biggest bull market since the depression, lasting well over 8 years now.
In the next 2-3 years the stock bears can do a lot of damage, but once 2021 rolls around and the sunspot polarity has started to flip, then we had better look for a brand new bull market to start. If you think investors are any smarter today than what they were with the 2000 or 2007 peaks, then you are sadly mistaken. The average majority will never learn that the “majority” can’t win at this game of accumulating wealth.
The sad part about the solar cycles is that even the wave analysts ignore them, as in March of 2009 they still had very bearish wave counts still to be completed. Yet the markets turned up in 2009 and never looked back as the bearish wave counting herd were caught in a bear trap. When we are caught in any type of a trap we are ill prepared for what comes next. The markets were already showing signs of an impending reversal in late 2008.
I just love to show readers the linear version of the DOW as the bullish phase from the 2016 bottom to our present top is one of the most vertical moves I have ever tried to count. I show 2 sets of 5 wave sequences in Intermediate degree, with no other degree levels labeled. I use no other indicators or prices, and I spew out little or no fundamental reasoning when markets go up or down. Markets will always act in such a fashion to never let the majority win. Sure, during any bull market it is perceived that the majority are winning, but that is only wealth on paper. During a big bear market, all this paper wealth starts to disappear and years of bullish progress go up in smoke.
The first set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree, are much bigger physical moves. The 2015-2016 bearish phase contained a much smaller intermediate degree 4th wave. There is nothing wrong with that as there is a one degree difference between the two 5 wave sets. There are 2 sets of wave 3 positions not labeled which is deliberate, so it will force any wave analysts to scratch this time, wondering what is supposed to be between the 2 sets of 5 waves.
This market has soared since the 2016 bottom, but it also shows next to no corrections from a monthly chart perspective. This is a bad omen in the bigger scope of things, as the markets do correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The DOW 15,000 price level is a previous 4th wave alright, but it’s the previous 4th wave of a Primary degree that a Cycle degree has to correct down to.
In 2009 the markets went a bit lower than the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which has no real meaning or future implications at this time. Many 4th waves travel below previous 4th waves of one lesser degree. Besides the markets have a tendency to fool the majority of participants and so to piss off all the mega bears, the markets will “not” go below the 2009 lows again. They could turn earlier than expected, and start to soar. You can thank solar cycle #25 for the next big bull market, as those investors that follow or believe in the “grand” or “super” theory will be left empty handed again.
I see this as a massive missed opportunity, which makes the Elliott Wave Principle very inefficient, if we keep on missing major bull markets. As long as wave analysts are happy painting mindless numbers and letters on the charts, then they will never enjoy catching a 5 or 8 year bull moves when they do come.
Every failed wave count must be followed by a serious look at the “entire” wave structure. A minimum of two higher degree levels than the failed wave degree must be initiated instantly. In 2009 Primary degree wave 1 failed so the “ENTIRE” 5 wave sequence in Supercycle degree must be counted again. Modern wave analysts have refused to do this as it’s just too much like work. If you spend your time looking at many other wave counts, virtually every wave position today is still spewing out SC and GSC degree wave counts.
For the last 5 years I have shifted to Cycle degree wave analysis. Until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, “NO” SC or GSC degree wave counts can find a base.