This weekly chart shows the 2011 peak which was an insane mania peak ending 31 years after the 1980 silver mania peak. Crazy peaks like this do not correct in just a few short years but can take many years. 2011 also was an ending to zigzag peak in Primary degree, and topping it off with my Cycle degree wave 3. We are now a little over 7 years old in this bearish phase, and even if another major bottom materializes it could still take until 2021 to complete. 2011+30 years could give us a new Supercycle degree peak in 2041! Once the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom becomes more certain, we can take that date and subtract that from 2041. I have counted out several silver bear markets that have lasted about 13 years, which would give us a bottom closer to 2024, leaving us with a potential 17-year bull market.
This is all fine and dandy but there is a big catch! This impending bull market will be in the shape of another huge zigzag in Primary degree.
In the last few days, silver has peaked and has now started to correct, depending on what you believe in. A true bull market cannot let silver crash below $13.50 which is only $2.06 away from doing so. On the daily chart, there is a huge gap still open that won’t get close until the $14.80 price level has been hit. This may supply short term support but if this so-called rally is a bear market rally then a new record low silver price will come.
The Death Cross on this weekly chart happened back in July 2018, with the daily chart Death Cross happening soon once silver gets near the gap.
Also, the monthly Death Cross is now having a big Valintine’s smooching feast as the 200-day and 50-day MA are kissing. The short version is there is no Golden Cross insight anywhere!
The silver COT report below shows commercials in the highest short position in close to a year so that reading does not entice me to stay in any long positions.
Friday night will give us some updated COT data but commercials would have to shift dramatically, and make that big red line disappear!