When we look at the last 2 years we can see the angle of the pattern sloping down. This is nothing like what gold has done as gold has a much more bullish angle to it. It’s gold that is brainwashing us while silver only saw it’s a new record low in November of 2018. That would make the silver bull market just about 6 weeks old. The record low in silver sure looks like an expanded pattern, so technically we could see silvers retrace its entire bullish move.
The bullish side of silver has already started to back off, so now we wait and see how deep any correction may take us. “Correction” is a loose term as the silver decline has to make a pattern that can show a decent counter-rally in the next month or so. Vertical moves like this cannot be maintained, especially if this also was a run to safe-haven. Fear moves rarely last that long as they can crash faster than they went up! The huge gap that opened up is a big hint that silver could crash to close off this gap which could take all of January to happen.
This Friday we get new government COT reports but Decembers report had commercials still building short positions. I follow two sites as they both have a bit of difference but it shows the net short positions in a more visual.
The commercial bearish outlook sure doesn’t inspire me to get all warm and fuzzy about a bull market with no end! Since 2018, the commercial hedgers only have had net long positions 6 times.
Silver has also sliced through the 200-day MA which it has done many times before, after which silver crashed each time. The 50-day MA is at the $14.50 price level and if the bearish move returns then the 50-day MA will provide little support. Any price drop below $13.88 would definitely confirm this bullish phase as one giant bull market fake or bear market rally. Any bear market rally always retraces back to the point of origin and the only difference is the degree. If the majority can get fooled with just a Minute degree bullish phase, then the larger degree bear market rallies can easily trap the bulls.