This is just a quick update as this potential “C” wave could be running out of steam. I would still like to see the USD spike to a new higher high, but that has a 50/50 chance of happening. 50/50 odds does nothing for me as I want better odds than just flipping any coin for heads or tails.
I will never call this type of a move as a “Truncation” because they can work as running patterns very well. Even any zigzag can come up short, so it’s not like it can never happen. Next week could destroy the top trend line, but otherwise the US dollar should resume its crash course.
Sure, there will still be many counter rallies, but the only real counter rally is the one that sends the USD back into a multi year bull market. That will not happen until the US dollar bears become trapped again, much like they were in late 2008. This time it won’t take 8 years or so, but should only last 3 years at best.
The US dollar index is being drawn down towards solar cycle #25, much like the USD was pulled down to the solar cycle #24. From this 2008 low the US dollar exploded right along with solar cycle #24, so I expect a US Dollar bull market after solar cycle #25 as well.
There is a huge USD wedge that will be finished in a few years, and these wedges can produce powerful bull markets. The VIX is a prime example of what happens when a wedge comes to an end. 1937 to 1942 also produced a wedge, and that wedge spawned a multi decade bull market.