This platinum bear market is about 7 years long with a major bottom in August of 2018. With that kind of a bottom, we could turn very bullish. There are no COT reports due to the government shutdown, but at least the Market Vane Report keeps on coming, which I will comment on later.
If we look at the pattern from 2016 to the 2018 peak, this pattern is identical to gold except with gold the entire pattern is pointing up. Virtually all other gold-related asset classes during the same time period have been facing down or sideways. Silver was on the verge of a new bear market low while the price of gold was pointing up.
If the pattern in platinum can dip to new record lows, there is no reason why gold and silver can’t eventually do the same thing. The excuse that gold is special due to safe-haven buying is all pure BS as emotional moves never last long. The pattern we see at the intraday scale looks corrective to me so a new record low should happen. Mind you it could be as slow as molasses flowing in the winter.
Any price plunge below $750 would sure help to support my near term bearish stance. After that, I will turn very bullish for a bigger long term bullish phase. One reason I will turn bullish is the Market Vane Report (MVR) which showed that only 22% bulls are present. In other words, there are a large number of bulls that will come back. From a list of 35 MV items covered, the 22% low in platinum had the lowest reading out of all other asset classes. The next lowest reading was the S. Franc at 30% bulls.
Palladium is at the opposite end, which is not covered in the MVR.
PPLT is the ETF equivalent to this futures chart and it looks like the ETF is doing a good job of tracking the metal.